{"id":10067,"date":"2018-09-07T16:48:30","date_gmt":"2018-09-07T13:48:30","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/?p=10067"},"modified":"2020-09-03T16:42:16","modified_gmt":"2020-09-03T13:42:16","slug":"iran-ve-misir-musluman-kardesleri-iliskiler-gelisecek-mi-yoksa-basit-bir-onarimdan-mi-gececek","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/2018\/09\/07\/iran-ve-misir-musluman-kardesleri-iliskiler-gelisecek-mi-yoksa-basit-bir-onarimdan-mi-gececek\/","title":{"rendered":"\u0130ran ve M\u0131s\u0131r M\u00fcsl\u00fcman Karde\u015fleri: \u0130li\u015fkiler Geli\u015fecek mi Yoksa Basit Bir Onar\u0131mdan m\u0131 Ge\u00e7ecek?"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"\" Tamer Badawi<\/a> \"\" Osama Al-Sayyad<\/a>      <\/i> 07 Eyl\u00fcl 2018<\/span><\/h6><\/div><\/div><\/div>
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\n\t\n\t\t<\/i>\n\t\tPDF olarak indir\t\t\n\t<\/a>\n<\/p>\n<\/h6><\/div><\/div><\/div>

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Rapor<\/a> \/ \/ Siyasal \u0130slami Hareketler<\/a><\/h6><\/div><\/div><\/div>
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Y\u00f6netici \u00d6zeti<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

    \n
  • Arap Bahar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n patlak vermesiyle ya\u015fanan devrimlerin ard\u0131ndan artan \u0130ran n\u00fcfuzu, \u0130ran \u0130slam Cumhuriyeti\u2019nin Arap toplumlar\u0131, \u00f6zellikle de S\u00fcnni topluluklar nezdindeki imaj\u0131n\u0131 ciddi bir \u015fekilde de\u011fi\u015ftirmi\u015ftir. \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n, Suriye\u2019deki mevcut rejimin lideri Be\u015far el-Esad\u2019a kar\u015f\u0131 2011\u2019de ba\u015flat\u0131lan isyan giri\u015fimlerinin bast\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131ndaki ve Ma\u015fr\u0131k b\u00f6lgesindeki \u00fclkelerde devlet g\u00fc\u00e7lerine paralel g\u00fcvenlik birimleri ile askeri birlikler olu\u015fturma giri\u015fimleri, \u0130ran a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan olumsuz bir imaj yaratm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. \u0130ran ise bu imaj\u0131 d\u00fczeltmek ve S\u00fcnni Arap ortaklardan olu\u015fan geni\u015f bir taban olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in jeopolitik kazan\u0131mlar\u0131 yoluyla yerel S\u00fcnni Arap topluluklar\u0131 ile ileti\u015fim a\u011flar\u0131 in\u015fa etmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmaktad\u0131r.<\/li>\n
  • M\u00fcsl\u00fcman Karde\u015fler (\u0130hvan olarak bilinmektedir), \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n devlet-d\u0131\u015f\u0131 akt\u00f6rler konusunda izledi\u011fi diplomaside ba\u015fl\u0131ca hedeflerinden biri olagelmi\u015ftir. \u0130ran, k\u00fcresel \u0130hvan a\u011f\u0131na tarihsel anlamda \u00f6nc\u00fcl\u00fck eden M\u0131s\u0131r \u0130hvan\u0131\u2019n\u0131, genel olarak Arap halk taban hareketleri ile ili\u015fkilerini geli\u015ftirme \u00e7abalar\u0131 \u00e7er\u00e7evesinde bir bak\u0131ma yan\u0131na \u00e7ekmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmaktad\u0131r. Bir taraftan M\u0131s\u0131r\u2019daki ve b\u00f6lgenin geri kalan\u0131na yay\u0131lan \u0130hvan ile ili\u015fkilerini geli\u015ftirmek; Tahran\u2019\u0131n kamu diplomasisini g\u00fc\u00e7lendirirken, \u00f6te taraftan kendisine d\u00fc\u015fman akt\u00f6rlerle ya\u015fad\u0131\u011f\u0131 sorunlarda \u0130hvan\u2019\u0131n arabuluculuk etmesi i\u00e7in de zemin haz\u0131rlamaktad\u0131r. Bu sebepledir ki Arap Bahar\u0131 devrimleri, bilhassa M\u0131s\u0131r\u2019daki devrim, kritik S\u00fcnni Arap akt\u00f6rlerle olan ili\u015fkilerin yeniden tan\u0131mlanmas\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan bir d\u00f6n\u00fcm noktas\u0131 olmu\u015ftur.<\/li>\n
  • M\u0131s\u0131r \u0130hvan\u0131 i\u00e7in Ocak 2011\u2019deki M\u0131s\u0131r Devrimi, \u0130hvan\u2019\u0131n b\u00f6lgesel d\u00fczeyde siyasi yap\u0131lara ve temel bir akt\u00f6r olarak kendisine y\u00f6nelik yakla\u015f\u0131mlarda bir d\u00f6n\u00fcm noktas\u0131 olmu\u015ftur. \u0130ran hususunda ise, Arap Bahar\u0131 d\u00f6neminde b\u00f6lgesel siyasi dinamiklerin yeniden \u015fekillenmesine paralel bir \u015fekilde kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131kl\u0131 ili\u015fkileri yeniden yap\u0131land\u0131rmak y\u00f6n\u00fcnde ortak bir \u00e7\u0131kar s\u00f6z konusuydu. \u0130hvan ile \u0130ran aras\u0131nda ge\u00e7mi\u015fte kurulan ve mezhepler aras\u0131 bir mahiyette olan ikili ili\u015fkiler de \u00f6nemli bir fakt\u00f6rd\u00fc.<\/li>\n
  • \u0130hvan\u2019\u0131n, M\u0131s\u0131r\u2019\u0131n b\u00f6lgeye y\u00f6nelik d\u0131\u015f politikas\u0131nda k\u00f6kl\u00fc de\u011fi\u015fikliklere gitme konusundaki ya\u015fad\u0131\u011f\u0131 teredd\u00fctler, K\u00f6rfez b\u00f6lgesindeki kilit akt\u00f6rler-Suudi Arabistan ve Birle\u015fik Arap Emirlikleri (BAE)- aras\u0131nda \u0130slamc\u0131 bir b\u00f6lgesel eksenin y\u00fckseli\u015fe ge\u00e7ti\u011fine dair endi\u015felerin artmas\u0131n\u0131 beraberinde getirmi\u015ftir. \u0130hvan \u00f6zelindeki beklentiler de bu noktada M\u0131s\u0131r taraf\u0131n\u0131n cesurca ad\u0131m atmas\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcnde iken, buna mukabil \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n da mevcut tablodan tatmin olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir d\u00fczlemde seyretmi\u015ftir.<\/li>\n
  • M\u0131s\u0131r \u0130hvan\u0131 iktidara yakla\u015ft\u0131k\u00e7a i\u00e7 ve d\u0131\u015f bask\u0131lar artm\u0131\u015f ve grup, \u201c\u0130ran dosyas\u0131\u201d ile ilgili daha temkinli bir yol izlemeyi tercih etmi\u015ftir. M\u0131s\u0131r \u0130hvan\u0131\u2019n\u0131n \u00f6nc\u00fc kadrolar\u0131n\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131nda gelen isimlerden Cumhurba\u015fkan\u0131 Muhammed Mursi, \u0130ran ile ileti\u015fim kanallar\u0131n\u0131 selefi oldu\u011fu H\u00fcsn\u00fc M\u00fcbarek ile k\u0131yaslanamayacak \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde a\u00e7\u0131k tutmu\u015f olsa da M\u0131s\u0131r ile \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n tam bir yak\u0131nla\u015fma i\u00e7erisinde olmas\u0131ndan da m\u00fcmk\u00fcn mertebe ka\u00e7\u0131nm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Bunun yerine Kahire, K\u00f6rfez b\u00f6lgesindeki akt\u00f6rlerin artan endi\u015felerini a\u015famalar halinde gidermeyi tercih etmi\u015ftir.<\/li>\n
  • Kahire\u2019deki \u0130hvan \u00f6nderli\u011findeki h\u00fck\u00fcmete kar\u015f\u0131 yap\u0131lan askeri darbenin ard\u0131ndan grup, M\u0131s\u0131r\u2019da ve M\u0131s\u0131r\u2019da yeni olu\u015fan askeri cunta \u00f6nc\u00fcl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcndeki h\u00fck\u00fcmetin b\u00f6lgede y\u00fcr\u00fctt\u00fc\u011f\u00fc tasfiye politikas\u0131n\u0131 bertaraf etmek i\u00e7in yaln\u0131z kalmay\u0131 tercih etmi\u015ftir. Darbeden sonraki ilk d\u00f6nemlerde, \u0130ran medyas\u0131na yans\u0131yan resmi s\u00f6ylem, Tahran\u2019\u0131n \u0130hvan ile ileti\u015fimi s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmeye istekli olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ortaya koymaktayd\u0131. Di\u011fer taraftan \u0130hvan da \u0130ran\u2019dan gelecek bir deste\u011fe y\u00f6nelik isteksizli\u011fini, \u0130ran ile i\u015f birli\u011fi yapmay\u0131 kendileri i\u00e7in zor k\u0131lan mevcut hassas durumu \u00f6ne s\u00fcrerek gerek\u00e7elendirme yoluna ba\u015fvurmaktayd\u0131.<\/li>\n
  • M\u0131s\u0131r \u0130hvan\u0131 i\u00e7erisindeki b\u00f6l\u00fcnmeler her ge\u00e7en g\u00fcn artarken \u0130ran, geli\u015fmekte olan taraflarla (eski toplar, yeni liderlik cephesi ve muhalifler) aras\u0131nda yeni ileti\u015fim kanallar\u0131 a\u00e7maya ba\u015flam\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Bu gruplar\u0131n her birinin ise \u00f6rg\u00fct\u00fcn d\u0131\u015f politikas\u0131 ve \u0130ran\u2019la nas\u0131l bir ili\u015fki kurulmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fi hakk\u0131nda farkl\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fleri mevcuttu. Eski toplar, \u0130ran\u2019a olan yakla\u015f\u0131mlar\u0131nda daha muhafazak\u00e2r bir tutum tak\u0131n\u0131rken, muhalif kanat da \u0130ran\u2019a \u0130ran konusunda daha a\u00e7\u0131k ve yeni liderlik cephesi ise bu ikisi aras\u0131nda bir pozisyona sahiptir.<\/li>\n
  • M\u0131s\u0131r \u0130hvan\u0131\u2019n\u0131n \u00fcst d\u00fczey \u00fcyelerinin T\u00fcrkiye ve Katar\u2019da yerle\u015fik bulunmas\u0131 ile birlikte, bu \u00fclkelerdeki \u0130hvan gruplar\u0131n\u0131n \u0130ran\u2019a y\u00f6nelik yakla\u015f\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n bulunduklar\u0131 \u00fclkelerin \u0130ran\u2019a yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131ndan etkilendi\u011fi s\u00f6ylenebilir. Bu etki, genel olarak \u0130ran\u2019a y\u00f6nelik olumlu yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131 muhafaza etmeyi daha zor k\u0131lm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla, \u0130hvan \u00fcyelerine ev sahipli\u011fi yapan \u00fclkelerin de\u011finilen b\u00f6lgesel dinamiklere y\u00f6nelik tutumlar\u0131na g\u00f6re M\u0131s\u0131r \u0130hvan\u0131\u2019n\u0131n \u0130ran ile ili\u015fkileri de belli bir boyuta kadar bu durumdan etkilenecektir.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>
    <\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

    Arap Bahar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n patlak vermesiyle ya\u015fanan devrimlerin ard\u0131ndan artan \u0130ran n\u00fcfuzu, \u0130ran \u0130slam Cumhuriyeti\u2019nin Arap toplumlar\u0131, \u00f6zellikle de S\u00fcnni topluluklar nezdindeki imaj\u0131n\u0131 ciddi bir \u015fekilde de\u011fi\u015ftirmi\u015ftir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":55,"featured_media":10068,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","ngg_post_thumbnail":0},"categories":[363],"tags":[2452,9816,14752],"asf_pub_issue":[10303],"asf_pub_region":[10321,10323],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10067"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/55"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=10067"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10067\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":23992,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10067\/revisions\/23992"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/10068"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=10067"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=10067"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=10067"},{"taxonomy":"asf_pub_issue","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/asf_pub_issue?post=10067"},{"taxonomy":"asf_pub_region","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/asf_pub_region?post=10067"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}