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Mark N. Katz<\/a> <\/i> 28 Ekim 2016<\/span><\/h6><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div>Uzman G\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fc<\/a> \/ \/ B\u00f6lgesel Politika<\/a><\/h6><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div>\u00d6zet<\/span><\/strong>: Donald Trump\u2019\u0131n Amerika Birle\u015fik Devletleri Ba\u015fkan\u0131 olarak se\u00e7ilmesi Amerika\u2019n\u0131n di\u011fer yerlerde oldu\u011fu kadar Orta Do\u011fu\u2019ya y\u00f6nelik d\u0131\u015f politikas\u0131nda da dramatik bir de\u011fi\u015fime neden olabilir. Kazanmas\u0131 \u00e7ok daha b\u00fcy\u00fck bir olas\u0131l\u0131k olan Hillary Clinton\u2019\u0131n ba\u015fkan olmas\u0131 durumunda Amerika\u2019n\u0131n d\u0131\u015f politikas\u0131nda de\u011fi\u015fimden \u00e7ok bir s\u00fcreklilik s\u00f6z konusu olacakt\u0131r. Clinton\u2019un b\u00f6lgede kendi inisiyatifiyle hareket etme kabiliyeti ise b\u00f6lgesel ger\u00e7eklikler ve hem uluslararas\u0131 hem de Amerika \u00f6l\u00e7e\u011finde daha kapsaml\u0131 siyasal ve ekonomik k\u0131s\u0131tlamalarla s\u0131n\u0131rland\u0131racakt\u0131r. Buna ilaveten, se\u00e7ilecek olan ba\u015fkan b\u00f6lgeye seleflerinden daha az a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131k vermeyi tercih edebilecek olsa bile, Orta Do\u011fu, Beyaz Saray\u2019da bulunanlar\u0131n kafas\u0131n\u0131 me\u015fgul etmek i\u00e7in muhakkak bir yol bulacakt\u0131r.<\/span><\/p>\nAmerika\u2019n\u0131n Demokrat ve Cumhuriyet\u00e7i ba\u015fkan adaylar\u0131n\u0131n d\u0131\u015f politikaya dair yakla\u015f\u0131mlar\u0131 her zaman birbirinden farkl\u0131 olmu\u015ftur, ancak bu farkl\u0131l\u0131klar bu y\u0131l her zaman oldu\u011fundan daha keskin olacak gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Demokratlar\u0131n aday\u0131 Hillary Clinton ya da Cumhuriyet\u00e7i Donald Trump\u2019un se\u00e7ilmesi halinde Amerikan d\u0131\u015f politikas\u0131n\u0131n, Orta Do\u011fu da d\u00e2hil olmak \u00fczere nas\u0131l bir seyir izleyece\u011fine dair olduk\u00e7a farkl\u0131 \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131mlar s\u00f6z konusudur. Geldi\u011fimiz noktada Clinton\u2019un se\u00e7ilmesi \u00e7ok daha olas\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcnmektedir. Bu nedenle burada Clinton\u2019un b\u00f6lgeye y\u00f6nelik d\u0131\u015f politikas\u0131n\u0131n nas\u0131l olabilece\u011fi konusuna a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131k verilecektir.[1]<\/a> Se\u00e7ilmesi uzak bir ihtimal olsa da dile getirdi\u011fi fikirlerin baz\u0131lar\u0131 pek \u00e7ok Amerikal\u0131y\u0131 cezbediyor oldu\u011fu ve bu nedenle de s\u00fcrekli bir etkisi olabilece\u011fi i\u00e7in Trump\u2019un b\u00f6lgeye yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131 konusu da ele al\u0131nacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n\u00d6ncelikle yeni Amerika Ba\u015fkan\u0131\u2019n\u0131n, her kim se\u00e7ilirse se\u00e7ilsin; ABD Kongresi\u2019nin, medyan\u0131n ve kamuoyunun Orta Do\u011fu\u2019ya ili\u015fkin genel kayg\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n \u00fcstesinden gelmek durumunda olaca\u011f\u0131na de\u011finmek \u00f6nemlidir. Bunlar; Bush y\u00f6netiminin Afganistan ve Irak\u2019a y\u00f6nelik ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirdi\u011fi \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde bir m\u00fcdahaleden ka\u00e7\u0131nma iste\u011fidir ki bu durum, Obama Y\u00f6netimi\u2019nin m\u00fcdahaleye y\u00f6nelik isteksizli\u011finin di\u011ferlerine – \u00f6zellikle Rusya\u2019ya – b\u00f6lgede Amerika\u2019n\u0131n \u00e7\u0131karlar\u0131na etki etmesi gibi bir korkuyla birle\u015fiyor; \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n n\u00fckleer anla\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n Tahran\u2019\u0131n b\u00f6lgesel politikas\u0131nda bir \u0131l\u0131ml\u0131l\u0131\u011fa yol a\u00e7mad\u0131\u011f\u0131 endi\u015fesi; Suudi Arabistan\u2019\u0131n h\u00e2lihaz\u0131rdaki liderli\u011finin bilhassa Yemen\u2019de, ters etki yaratan politikalar\u0131n\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrece\u011fi korkusu; Netanyahu h\u00fck\u00fcmetinin bir \u0130srail-Filistin bar\u0131\u015f anla\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n yap\u0131labilmesi konusunda anlaml\u0131 bir ilerleme kaydetmemesi anlam\u0131na gelecek kat\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve bunun bir sonucu olarak Amerika\u2019n\u0131n b\u00f6lgedeki \u00e7\u0131karlar\u0131n\u0131n zarar g\u00f6rece\u011fi kayg\u0131s\u0131; Sisi rejiminin kat\u0131 politikalar\u0131n\u0131n M\u0131s\u0131r\u2019da \u00e7alkant\u0131ya yol a\u00e7aca\u011f\u0131 ancak Kahire\u2019yi bu do\u011frultusunu de\u011fi\u015ftirmeye y\u00f6nelik \u00e7abalar\u0131n M\u0131s\u0131r-Amerika ili\u015fkilerini sadece daha da zay\u0131flataca\u011f\u0131 endi\u015fesi; Amerika\u2019daki kaya gaz\u0131 \u00fcretimindeki b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin ABD\u2019nin yeralt\u0131 kaynaklar\u0131 hususunda Orta Do\u011fu\u2019ya daha az ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131 oldu\u011fu anlam\u0131na gelebilece\u011fi genel anlay\u0131\u015f\u0131 ve elbette ki T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin Amerika ve Bat\u0131 ile aras\u0131ndaki ciddi gerilim ve gerginli\u011fin onar\u0131l\u0131p onar\u0131lamayaca\u011f\u0131na ili\u015fkin endi\u015fe.[2]<\/a> T\u00fcm bunlar\u0131 hat\u0131rda tutarak, ba\u015fkan adaylar\u0131n\u0131n her birinin b\u00f6lgeye y\u00f6nelik Amerika d\u0131\u015f politikas\u0131n\u0131 nas\u0131l g\u00f6rebilece\u011fi konusuna d\u00f6nebiliriz.<\/p>\n<\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div>Clinton: De\u011fi\u015fimden Ziyade S\u00fcreklilik<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\nHillary Clinton, pek \u00e7ok ba\u015fkan\u0131n g\u00f6reve geldi\u011findekinden farkl\u0131 olarak, Ba\u015fkan Obama\u2019n\u0131n ilk d\u00f6neminde (2009-2013) D\u0131\u015fi\u015fleri Bakan\u0131 olmas\u0131 nedeniyle, Orta Do\u011fu\u2019ya ili\u015fkin d\u0131\u015f politika konular\u0131na a\u015finad\u0131r. Clinton\u2019un Esad rejimine y\u00f6nelik ayaklanmalar\u0131n ba\u015flamas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan, 2011 y\u0131l\u0131nda Amerika\u2019n\u0131n Suriye\u2019de daha aktif bir rol oynamas\u0131ndan yana oldu\u011fu, ancak bunun Obama taraf\u0131ndan reddedildi\u011fi s\u00f6ylenmektedir. Kampanyas\u0131nda yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 son a\u00e7\u0131klamalar da Clinton\u2019un Suriye\u2019ye ili\u015fkin olarak bir \u015feyler yapmay\u0131 istedi\u011fini ancak ayn\u0131 zamanda \u015fu anda Rusya\u2019n\u0131n orada a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olarak bulundu\u011funu ve ABD\u2019nin orada \u00f6nemli herhangi bir \u015fey yapabilece\u011fi zaman\u0131n art\u0131k ge\u00e7mi\u015f olabilece\u011finin hakk\u0131n\u0131 teslim etti\u011fini ortaya koymaktad\u0131r.[3]<\/a> Bu nedenle, Clinton\u2019un Suriye\u2019ye y\u00f6nelik politikas\u0131 Obama Y\u00f6netimi\u2019ninkinden \u00e7ok da farkl\u0131 olmayabilir. Clinton\u2019un Amerika\u2019n\u0131n b\u00f6lgedeki m\u00fcttefikleri ile y\u0131pranm\u0131\u015f olan ba\u011flar\u0131n\u0131 yeniden kurmaya a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131k vermesi ve bunu yapmak i\u00e7in de oradaki pek \u00e7ok liderle geni\u015f tecr\u00fcbelerine dayanmas\u0131 muhtemeldir. Bu y\u00fczden T\u00fcrkiye Cumhurba\u015fkan\u0131 Erdo\u011fan, \u0130srail Ba\u015fbakan\u0131 Netanyahu, \u00dcrd\u00fcn Kral\u0131 Abdullah, M\u0131s\u0131r Cumhurba\u015fkan\u0131 Sisi gibi liderlerle ve K\u00f6rfez \u0130\u015fbirli\u011fi Konseyi (K\u0130K) devletlerinin t\u00fcm monarklar\u0131yla ileti\u015fime ge\u00e7meye \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 olduk\u00e7a olas\u0131d\u0131r. Ayn\u0131 zamanda Ba\u015fkan Obama\u2019n\u0131n hem Ba\u011fdat h\u00fck\u00fcmeti hem de K\u00fcrt B\u00f6lgesel Y\u00f6netimi\u2019ne yard\u0131m ederek Irak \u015eam \u0130slam Devleti\u2019ni (I\u015e\u0130D) Irak\u2019ta yenilgiye u\u011fratma \u00e7abalar\u0131n\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmesi de muhtemeldir. Clinton\u2019\u0131n \u0130ran-Amerika ili\u015fkilerinde \u00f6nemli bir iyile\u015fme olabilece\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnde olmas\u0131 m\u00fcmk\u00fcn de\u011filse de Obama Y\u00f6netimi\u2019nin \u00fczerinde \u00e7ok \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u0130ran\u2019la n\u00fckleer anla\u015fmay\u0131 korumaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015facakt\u0131r. Bunun sebebi de olduk\u00e7a a\u00e7\u0131kt\u0131r: ABD ve b\u00f6lgedeki baz\u0131 m\u00fcttefiklerin \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n Suriye\u2019de veya b\u00f6lgede ba\u015fka yerlerde yapt\u0131klar\u0131ndan ho\u015fnutsuz olsa da \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n n\u00fckleer silah elde etme kapasitesine baz\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlamalar getirilmesi hi\u00e7 getirilmemesinden hepimiz i\u00e7in daha iyi olacakt\u0131r. Clinton\u2019un Suudilerin Yemen\u2019deki Husilere ili\u015fkin endi\u015felerini payla\u015fmakla birlikte, Obama Y\u00f6netimi\u2019nin Suudilerin Yemen\u2019e y\u00f6nelik sert m\u00fcdahalesinin ters etki yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131na dair kayg\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 devralmas\u0131 da muhtemeldir. Ayr\u0131ca Amerikan kaya gaz\u0131 ABD\u2019yi Orta Do\u011fu petrol\u00fcne daha az ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131 hale getirecek olsa da Clinton\u2019un b\u00f6lgenin petrol ihrac\u0131 kapasitesini korumay\u0131 ve Arap petrol ihracat\u00e7\u0131lar\u0131 ile yak\u0131n bir i\u015f birli\u011fi i\u00e7inde olmay\u0131, Amerika\u2019n\u0131n m\u00fcttefikleri ve t\u00fcm k\u00fcresel ekonomi i\u00e7in \u00f6nemli g\u00f6rmeyi s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmesi muhtemeldir.[4]<\/a><\/p>\nClinton\u2019un Orta Do\u011fu liderleri ile aras\u0131nda Obama\u2019dan daha ba\u015far\u0131l\u0131 bir bi\u00e7imde angajman sa\u011flamas\u0131 olas\u0131d\u0131r. Ancak b\u00f6lgedeki mevkida\u015flar\u0131 ile daha dostane ba\u011flar kurmu\u015f olmas\u0131 tek ba\u015f\u0131na baz\u0131 konulara ili\u015fkin- ki \u00f6zellikle bu konular\u0131n ABD kamuoyu ve Kongre\u2019nin g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fc ile ya da Amerika hukuku ile \u00e7ak\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 durumunda \u2013 bu \u00fclkelerin Washington ile olan anla\u015fmazl\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7\u00f6zemeyecektir. Zira Clinton\u2019un Fethullah G\u00fclen\u2019i T\u00fcrkiye\u2019ye iade etmede Obama\u2019dan daha istekli olmas\u0131 ya da bunu yapabilmesi uzak bir ihtimaldir (asl\u0131nda Clinton G\u00fclen\u2019i iade etmeyi istese dahi Amerika\u2019n\u0131n hukuk sisteminin buna izin verip vermeyece\u011fi uzun bir zamand\u0131r olduk\u00e7a netle\u015ftirilememi\u015ftir).<\/p>\n
Ayr\u0131ca, Clinton\u2019un bir \u0130srail-Filistin bar\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 m\u00fczakere etme konusunda Obama\u2019dan ya da daha \u00f6nceki Amerikan ba\u015fkanlar\u0131n\u0131n herhangi birinden daha ba\u015far\u0131l\u0131 olmamas\u0131 da olas\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcnmektedir. Hatta Clinton\u2019un bu konuda ciddi bir \u00e7aba bile g\u00f6stermeyece\u011fini \u00f6ng\u00f6rebiliriz.<\/p>\n
Clinton\u2019un b\u00f6lge liderleriyle daha iyi ili\u015fkiler i\u00e7inde olmas\u0131, Washington\u2019un zarar verici oldu\u011fundan endi\u015fe etti\u011fi politikalar\u0131n de\u011fi\u015fmesini sa\u011flamayacakt\u0131r (Yemen\u2019de Suudi m\u00fcdahalesi ve Sisi\u2019nin \u00fclke i\u00e7indeki muhaliflerine bask\u0131s\u0131 gibi). Clinton\u2019un, Obama\u2019n\u0131n Amerika\u2019n\u0131n \u0130srailli ve K\u00f6rfez\u2019deki Arap m\u00fcttefiklerini \u0130ran n\u00fckleer anla\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n asl\u0131nda onlar\u0131n \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131na oldu\u011fu ve Amerika\u2019n\u0131n bu anla\u015fmaya verdi\u011fi deste\u011fin Amerika\u2019n\u0131n onlar\u0131 savunma taahh\u00fcd\u00fcnde bir gerileme anlam\u0131na gelmedi\u011fi konusunda ikna etme ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 yakalamas\u0131 da uzak bir ihtimaldir.<\/p>\n
Clinton\u2019un kesinlikle yararl\u0131 g\u00f6rmeyece\u011fi bir di\u011fer \u015fey, Suriye ile \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm\u00fcnde ya da herhangi ba\u015fka bir konuda Rusya ile i\u015f birli\u011fi konusunda \u00e7aba g\u00f6stermek olacakt\u0131r.[5]<\/a> Di\u011fer yandan Clinton, Suriye\u2019deki Rus m\u00fcdahalesine kar\u015f\u0131, daha geni\u015f bir \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma riski nedeniyle, meydan okumay\u0131p Rusya\u2019n\u0131n Suriye\u2019ye y\u00f6nelik politikas\u0131n\u0131n hem Orta Do\u011fu\u2019da hem de Avrupa\u2019da yarataca\u011f\u0131 hayal k\u0131r\u0131kl\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan avantaj sa\u011flama aray\u0131\u015f\u0131nda olacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\nTrump: S\u00fcreklilikten \u00c7ok De\u011fi\u015fim<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\nClinton\u2019dan farkl\u0131 bir bi\u00e7imde, Trump\u2019\u0131n d\u0131\u015f politika \u00fcretme konusunda bir deneyimi yoktur ve g\u00f6r\u00fcnen o ki Orta Do\u011fu hakk\u0131nda da \u00e7ok az bilgi sahibidir. Cumhuriyet\u00e7ilerin aday g\u00f6sterme s\u00fcrecinin ilk evresinde Trump, Bush y\u00f6netiminin Irak\u2019a m\u00fcdahalesine kar\u015f\u0131 sert bir muhalefet g\u00f6stermi\u015ftir. Di\u011fer yandan Trump, \u201cI\u015e\u0130D\u2019i yok etme\u201d s\u00f6z\u00fc vermi\u015f ancak bunu nas\u0131l yapaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamam\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. \u0130ran\u2019la n\u00fckleer anla\u015fmaya kar\u015f\u0131 muhalefet etmi\u015f ve t\u00fcmden bir yana at\u0131lmayacaksa da anla\u015fman\u0131n de\u011fi\u015fti\u011fini g\u00f6rmeyi iste\u011fini belirtmi\u015ftir. Ancak bu anla\u015fma olmadan \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n n\u00fckleer silahlar elde etmesini nas\u0131l \u00f6nleyece\u011fi belirsizdir.[6]<\/a><\/p>\nTrump\u2019\u0131n, Clinton\u2019dan farkl\u0131 olarak, Suriye ve di\u011fer konularda Putin Rusya\u2019s\u0131 ile \u00e7al\u0131\u015fma aray\u0131\u015f\u0131nda olacak olmas\u0131 kuvvetle muhtemeldir.[7]<\/a> Ancak bunu yaparak ne elde edebilece\u011fi konusu bir hayli muallakt\u0131r. Trump ba\u015fkanl\u0131k se\u00e7imi kampanyas\u0131 boyunca Putin\u2019e ili\u015fkin olduk\u00e7a olumlu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fleri oldu\u011funu ifade etmi\u015f olsa da Putin ile i\u015f birli\u011fi yapamamas\u0131 durumunda aniden ve \u015fiddetli bir bi\u00e7imde Putin\u2019in d\u00fc\u015fman\u0131 oldu\u011funu a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131 s\u00fcrpriz olmayacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\nTrump\u2019\u0131n g\u00f6klere \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131lan m\u00fczakere yetisinin, hepsinden de\u011filse de Orta Do\u011fulu liderlerin b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00e7o\u011funlu\u011fundan istedi\u011fini elde etmesini sa\u011flayaca\u011f\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fclebilir. Bu anlamda, bunun ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmemesi durumunda ki bu kuvvetle muhtemeldir, hayal k\u0131r\u0131kl\u0131\u011f\u0131na u\u011framas\u0131 m\u00fcmk\u00fcnd\u00fcr. Asl\u0131nda Trump\u2019\u0131n kavgac\u0131 ki\u015fili\u011finin Orta Do\u011fulu liderlerle anla\u015fmaya varmas\u0131na yard\u0131mc\u0131 olmak yerine Orta Do\u011fu\u2019nun kendi kavgac\u0131 liderleri ile \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmas\u0131na ve daha az kavgac\u0131 liderlerle de aras\u0131n\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131na yol a\u00e7mas\u0131 olas\u0131d\u0131r. Trump Amerika\u2019n\u0131n Orta Do\u011fu\u2019da ve ba\u015fka herhangi bir yerdeki geleneksel m\u00fcttefikleri ile aras\u0131n\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131 riskini Clinton\u2019dan daha \u00e7ok ta\u015f\u0131maktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Ancak Orta Do\u011fu\u2019da istedi\u011fini yapamamas\u0131n\u0131n nedeni ne olursa olsun, Trump bu b\u00f6lgenin dikkate de\u011fer olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131na karar vererek tepkisini g\u00f6sterebilir. Amerika\u2019n\u0131n petrol konusunda Orta Do\u011fu\u2019ya ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n azalmas\u0131 Trump taraf\u0131ndan b\u00f6lgeden \u00e7ekilme ya da b\u00f6lgeyi g\u00f6rmezden gelme gerek\u00e7elerinden biri olarak sunulabilir. Amerika\u2019n\u0131n b\u00f6lgeden ithal edilen petrole ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131 m\u00fcttefikleri Trump taraf\u0131ndan di\u011fer kaynaklardan (Amerika ve Rusya gibi) petrol almaya ya da buras\u0131n\u0131n kendileri i\u00e7in \u00e7ok \u00f6nemli olmas\u0131 durumunda kendi ba\u015flar\u0131na Orta Do\u011fu ile ba\u015f etmeye \u00e7a\u011fr\u0131labilir.<\/p>\n
B\u00f6ylesi bir yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131n Orta Do\u011fu\u2019da b\u00f6lgede istikrar\u0131 art\u0131rmak \u015f\u00f6yle dursun Amerika\u2019n\u0131n etkisini art\u0131rmaya hizmet etmeyece\u011fini s\u00f6ylemeye gerek yoktur. Ancak Orta Do\u011fu\u2019nun Amerikan d\u0131\u015f politikas\u0131 i\u00e7in \u00f6nceki y\u00f6netimlerin d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc kadar \u00f6nemli olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131na karar vermesi halinde, bu durum Trump\u2019\u0131 ilgilendirmeyebilecektir. Asl\u0131nda Trump- ve destek\u00e7ilerinin \u00e7o\u011fu- Orta Do\u011fu\u2019nun, Amerika burada aktif bir bi\u00e7imde s\u00fcrece kar\u0131\u015fs\u0131n ya da kar\u0131\u015fmas\u0131n, berbat bir hal alaca\u011f\u0131na ve bu nedenle ABD\u2019nin b\u00f6lgenin uzun \u00f6m\u00fcrl\u00fc sorunlar\u0131na kar\u0131\u015fmaktan geri durmas\u0131n\u0131n bu bata\u011fa saplan\u0131p kalmas\u0131ndan daha iyi olaca\u011f\u0131na g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir bi\u00e7imde inanabilir.<\/p>\n
Amerikan Politika Tercihleri ve B\u00f6lgesel Ger\u00e7eklikler<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\nTrump Y\u00f6netimi\u2019nin Orta Do\u011fu\u2019ya (ve d\u00fcnyaya) y\u00f6nelik d\u0131\u015f politikas\u0131 Clinton Y\u00f6netimi\u2019ninkinden \u00e7ok daha dengesiz ve melodramatik olacakt\u0131r. Ancak Clinton\u2019\u0131n ba\u015fkan olmas\u0131 \u00e7ok daha olas\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcnd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc i\u00e7in, onun de\u011fi\u015fim yerine devam\u0131 vurgulayan politikas\u0131n\u0131n uygulanmas\u0131 kuvvetle muhtemeldir. Yine de Amerika kamuoyunun m\u00fcdahaleye kar\u015f\u0131 isteksizli\u011fi, Amerika\u2019n\u0131n Orta Do\u011fu petrol\u00fcne ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n azalmas\u0131, Rusya, \u00c7in ve Avrupa\u2019ya ili\u015fkin Amerikan endi\u015felerinin y\u00fckseli\u015fi ve Amerika\u2019n\u0131n Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki her \u015feyin pek \u00e7o\u011funa eri\u015femeyece\u011fi genel anlay\u0131\u015f\u0131 gibi fakt\u00f6rler Clinton y\u00f6netiminin bu b\u00f6lgede aktif bir politika s\u00fcrd\u00fcrme becerisini s\u0131n\u0131rlayabilir.<\/p>\n
Daha \u00f6nceki Amerika ba\u015fkanlar\u0131nda g\u00f6zlendi\u011fi gibi, Clinton y\u00f6netiminin Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki olaylar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda tepkisel bir politika izlemeye son vermesi ve bunun yerine kendi y\u00f6netiminin b\u00f6lgeye y\u00f6nelik vizyonunu s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmeye odaklanan bir politika \u00fcretmesi olas\u0131d\u0131r. Asl\u0131nda Bush ve Obama y\u00f6netimlerinin birbirinden farkl\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fck vizyonlar\u0131n\u0131n her ikisinin birden Orta Do\u011fu ger\u00e7eklikleri kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda nas\u0131l k\u00f6steklendi\u011fini g\u00f6rerek, t\u00fcm hedeflerinden vazge\u00e7ebilir ve olaylara gidi\u015fata g\u00f6re tepki vermeye ve b\u00f6lgedeki sorunlar\u0131 \u00e7\u00f6zmekten ziyade sadece kontrol alt\u0131na almaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmaya odaklanabilir. D\u0131\u015fi\u015fleri Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 deneyimi onu, bunun Amerika\u2019n\u0131n yapabilece\u011fi en iyisi ve ayn\u0131 zamanda en fazlas\u0131 oldu\u011funa ikna edebilecektir.<\/p>\n
Ancak b\u00f6lgeyle ilgilensinler ya da ilgilenmesinler, Orta Do\u011fu daha \u00f6nceki Amerika ba\u015fkanlar\u0131n\u0131 me\u015fgul etmenin yolunu bir \u015fekilde bulmu\u015ftur. Hal b\u00f6yleyken, m\u00fcstakbel Amerika ba\u015fkan\u0131 i\u00e7in de ayn\u0131 durumun s\u00f6z konusu olmas\u0131 \u00e7ok olas\u0131d\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Referanslar<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n[1]<\/a> Se\u00e7imlere ili\u015fkin bilgi i\u00e7in bak\u0131n\u0131z: FiveThirtyEight 2016 Election Forecast,\u201d http:\/\/projects.fivethirtyeight.com\/2016-election-forecast\/<\/a> (Site birka\u00e7 saatte bir g\u00fcncellenmektedir)<\/p>\n[2]<\/a> Amerika\u2019n\u0131n Orta Do\u011fu\u2019ya y\u00f6nelik tutumu konusunda Shibley Telhami\u2019nin Brookings Institution taraf\u0131ndan yay\u0131nlanm\u0131\u015f \u00e7e\u015fitli \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131na bak\u0131labilir: (https:\/\/www.brookings.edu\/author\/shibley-telhami\/?type=research<\/a>)<\/p>\n[3]<\/a> Josh Rogin, \u201cWill Hillary Clinton deliver on her promise to ramp up U.S. involvement in Syria?\u201d Washington Post, 23 Ekim 2016, https:\/\/www.washingtonpost.com\/opinions\/global-opinions\/will-hillary-clintondeliver-on-her-promise-to-ramp-up-usinvolvement-in-syria\/2016\/10\/23\/1f2788e4-97bd-11e6-bc79-af1cd3d2984b_story.html?utm_term=.a551388cc8ca<\/a><\/p>\n[4]<\/a> \u201cFrom the Middle East and Asia to Europe and our own hemisphere, Hillary will strengthen the essential partnerships that are a unique source of America\u2019s strength.\u201d \u201cNational Security\u201d konulu sayfa: https:\/\/www.hillaryclinton.com\/issues\/national-security\/<\/a><\/p>\n[5]<\/a> Jack Goldstone, \u201cThe results of the US election will greatly influence relations with Russia,\u201d Russia Direct, 5 Ekim 2016, http:\/\/ www.russia-direct.org\/opinion\/results-uselection-will-greatly-influence-relationsrussia<\/a><\/p>\n[6]<\/a> \u201cDonald Trump on foreign policy,\u201d http:\/\/www.ontheissues.org\/2016\/Donald_Trump_Foreign_Policy.htm<\/a><\/p>\n[7]<\/a> \u201cDonald Trump, Putin\u2019s puppet,\u201d Washington Post, 10 Ekim 2016, https:\/\/www.washingtonpost.com\/opinions\/global-opinions\/donald-trump-putinspuppet\/2016\/10\/10\/451f099e-8f0e-11e6-a6a3-d50061aa9fae_story.html?utm_term=.939840c307fc<\/a><\/p>\n <\/p>\n
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<\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Donald Trump\u2019\u0131n Amerika Birle\u015fik Devletleri Ba\u015fkan\u0131 olarak se\u00e7ilmesi Amerika\u2019n\u0131n di\u011fer yerlerde oldu\u011fu kadar Orta Do\u011fu\u2019ya y\u00f6nelik d\u0131\u015f politikas\u0131nda da dramatik bir de\u011fi\u015fime neden olabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":43,"featured_media":10376,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","ngg_post_thumbnail":0},"categories":[361],"tags":[],"asf_pub_issue":[10319],"asf_pub_region":[10321],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10375"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/43"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=10375"}],"version-history":[{"count":7,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10375\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":29963,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10375\/revisions\/29963"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/10376"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=10375"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=10375"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=10375"},{"taxonomy":"asf_pub_issue","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/asf_pub_issue?post=10375"},{"taxonomy":"asf_pub_region","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/asf_pub_region?post=10375"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}
Uzman G\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fc<\/a> \/ \/ B\u00f6lgesel Politika<\/a><\/h6><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div>\u00d6zet<\/span><\/strong>: Donald Trump\u2019\u0131n Amerika Birle\u015fik Devletleri Ba\u015fkan\u0131 olarak se\u00e7ilmesi Amerika\u2019n\u0131n di\u011fer yerlerde oldu\u011fu kadar Orta Do\u011fu\u2019ya y\u00f6nelik d\u0131\u015f politikas\u0131nda da dramatik bir de\u011fi\u015fime neden olabilir. Kazanmas\u0131 \u00e7ok daha b\u00fcy\u00fck bir olas\u0131l\u0131k olan Hillary Clinton\u2019\u0131n ba\u015fkan olmas\u0131 durumunda Amerika\u2019n\u0131n d\u0131\u015f politikas\u0131nda de\u011fi\u015fimden \u00e7ok bir s\u00fcreklilik s\u00f6z konusu olacakt\u0131r. Clinton\u2019un b\u00f6lgede kendi inisiyatifiyle hareket etme kabiliyeti ise b\u00f6lgesel ger\u00e7eklikler ve hem uluslararas\u0131 hem de Amerika \u00f6l\u00e7e\u011finde daha kapsaml\u0131 siyasal ve ekonomik k\u0131s\u0131tlamalarla s\u0131n\u0131rland\u0131racakt\u0131r. Buna ilaveten, se\u00e7ilecek olan ba\u015fkan b\u00f6lgeye seleflerinden daha az a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131k vermeyi tercih edebilecek olsa bile, Orta Do\u011fu, Beyaz Saray\u2019da bulunanlar\u0131n kafas\u0131n\u0131 me\u015fgul etmek i\u00e7in muhakkak bir yol bulacakt\u0131r.<\/span><\/p>\nAmerika\u2019n\u0131n Demokrat ve Cumhuriyet\u00e7i ba\u015fkan adaylar\u0131n\u0131n d\u0131\u015f politikaya dair yakla\u015f\u0131mlar\u0131 her zaman birbirinden farkl\u0131 olmu\u015ftur, ancak bu farkl\u0131l\u0131klar bu y\u0131l her zaman oldu\u011fundan daha keskin olacak gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Demokratlar\u0131n aday\u0131 Hillary Clinton ya da Cumhuriyet\u00e7i Donald Trump\u2019un se\u00e7ilmesi halinde Amerikan d\u0131\u015f politikas\u0131n\u0131n, Orta Do\u011fu da d\u00e2hil olmak \u00fczere nas\u0131l bir seyir izleyece\u011fine dair olduk\u00e7a farkl\u0131 \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131mlar s\u00f6z konusudur. Geldi\u011fimiz noktada Clinton\u2019un se\u00e7ilmesi \u00e7ok daha olas\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcnmektedir. Bu nedenle burada Clinton\u2019un b\u00f6lgeye y\u00f6nelik d\u0131\u015f politikas\u0131n\u0131n nas\u0131l olabilece\u011fi konusuna a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131k verilecektir.[1]<\/a> Se\u00e7ilmesi uzak bir ihtimal olsa da dile getirdi\u011fi fikirlerin baz\u0131lar\u0131 pek \u00e7ok Amerikal\u0131y\u0131 cezbediyor oldu\u011fu ve bu nedenle de s\u00fcrekli bir etkisi olabilece\u011fi i\u00e7in Trump\u2019un b\u00f6lgeye yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131 konusu da ele al\u0131nacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n\u00d6ncelikle yeni Amerika Ba\u015fkan\u0131\u2019n\u0131n, her kim se\u00e7ilirse se\u00e7ilsin; ABD Kongresi\u2019nin, medyan\u0131n ve kamuoyunun Orta Do\u011fu\u2019ya ili\u015fkin genel kayg\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n \u00fcstesinden gelmek durumunda olaca\u011f\u0131na de\u011finmek \u00f6nemlidir. Bunlar; Bush y\u00f6netiminin Afganistan ve Irak\u2019a y\u00f6nelik ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirdi\u011fi \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde bir m\u00fcdahaleden ka\u00e7\u0131nma iste\u011fidir ki bu durum, Obama Y\u00f6netimi\u2019nin m\u00fcdahaleye y\u00f6nelik isteksizli\u011finin di\u011ferlerine – \u00f6zellikle Rusya\u2019ya – b\u00f6lgede Amerika\u2019n\u0131n \u00e7\u0131karlar\u0131na etki etmesi gibi bir korkuyla birle\u015fiyor; \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n n\u00fckleer anla\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n Tahran\u2019\u0131n b\u00f6lgesel politikas\u0131nda bir \u0131l\u0131ml\u0131l\u0131\u011fa yol a\u00e7mad\u0131\u011f\u0131 endi\u015fesi; Suudi Arabistan\u2019\u0131n h\u00e2lihaz\u0131rdaki liderli\u011finin bilhassa Yemen\u2019de, ters etki yaratan politikalar\u0131n\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrece\u011fi korkusu; Netanyahu h\u00fck\u00fcmetinin bir \u0130srail-Filistin bar\u0131\u015f anla\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n yap\u0131labilmesi konusunda anlaml\u0131 bir ilerleme kaydetmemesi anlam\u0131na gelecek kat\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve bunun bir sonucu olarak Amerika\u2019n\u0131n b\u00f6lgedeki \u00e7\u0131karlar\u0131n\u0131n zarar g\u00f6rece\u011fi kayg\u0131s\u0131; Sisi rejiminin kat\u0131 politikalar\u0131n\u0131n M\u0131s\u0131r\u2019da \u00e7alkant\u0131ya yol a\u00e7aca\u011f\u0131 ancak Kahire\u2019yi bu do\u011frultusunu de\u011fi\u015ftirmeye y\u00f6nelik \u00e7abalar\u0131n M\u0131s\u0131r-Amerika ili\u015fkilerini sadece daha da zay\u0131flataca\u011f\u0131 endi\u015fesi; Amerika\u2019daki kaya gaz\u0131 \u00fcretimindeki b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin ABD\u2019nin yeralt\u0131 kaynaklar\u0131 hususunda Orta Do\u011fu\u2019ya daha az ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131 oldu\u011fu anlam\u0131na gelebilece\u011fi genel anlay\u0131\u015f\u0131 ve elbette ki T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin Amerika ve Bat\u0131 ile aras\u0131ndaki ciddi gerilim ve gerginli\u011fin onar\u0131l\u0131p onar\u0131lamayaca\u011f\u0131na ili\u015fkin endi\u015fe.[2]<\/a> T\u00fcm bunlar\u0131 hat\u0131rda tutarak, ba\u015fkan adaylar\u0131n\u0131n her birinin b\u00f6lgeye y\u00f6nelik Amerika d\u0131\u015f politikas\u0131n\u0131 nas\u0131l g\u00f6rebilece\u011fi konusuna d\u00f6nebiliriz.<\/p>\n<\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div>Clinton: De\u011fi\u015fimden Ziyade S\u00fcreklilik<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\nHillary Clinton, pek \u00e7ok ba\u015fkan\u0131n g\u00f6reve geldi\u011findekinden farkl\u0131 olarak, Ba\u015fkan Obama\u2019n\u0131n ilk d\u00f6neminde (2009-2013) D\u0131\u015fi\u015fleri Bakan\u0131 olmas\u0131 nedeniyle, Orta Do\u011fu\u2019ya ili\u015fkin d\u0131\u015f politika konular\u0131na a\u015finad\u0131r. Clinton\u2019un Esad rejimine y\u00f6nelik ayaklanmalar\u0131n ba\u015flamas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan, 2011 y\u0131l\u0131nda Amerika\u2019n\u0131n Suriye\u2019de daha aktif bir rol oynamas\u0131ndan yana oldu\u011fu, ancak bunun Obama taraf\u0131ndan reddedildi\u011fi s\u00f6ylenmektedir. Kampanyas\u0131nda yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 son a\u00e7\u0131klamalar da Clinton\u2019un Suriye\u2019ye ili\u015fkin olarak bir \u015feyler yapmay\u0131 istedi\u011fini ancak ayn\u0131 zamanda \u015fu anda Rusya\u2019n\u0131n orada a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olarak bulundu\u011funu ve ABD\u2019nin orada \u00f6nemli herhangi bir \u015fey yapabilece\u011fi zaman\u0131n art\u0131k ge\u00e7mi\u015f olabilece\u011finin hakk\u0131n\u0131 teslim etti\u011fini ortaya koymaktad\u0131r.[3]<\/a> Bu nedenle, Clinton\u2019un Suriye\u2019ye y\u00f6nelik politikas\u0131 Obama Y\u00f6netimi\u2019ninkinden \u00e7ok da farkl\u0131 olmayabilir. Clinton\u2019un Amerika\u2019n\u0131n b\u00f6lgedeki m\u00fcttefikleri ile y\u0131pranm\u0131\u015f olan ba\u011flar\u0131n\u0131 yeniden kurmaya a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131k vermesi ve bunu yapmak i\u00e7in de oradaki pek \u00e7ok liderle geni\u015f tecr\u00fcbelerine dayanmas\u0131 muhtemeldir. Bu y\u00fczden T\u00fcrkiye Cumhurba\u015fkan\u0131 Erdo\u011fan, \u0130srail Ba\u015fbakan\u0131 Netanyahu, \u00dcrd\u00fcn Kral\u0131 Abdullah, M\u0131s\u0131r Cumhurba\u015fkan\u0131 Sisi gibi liderlerle ve K\u00f6rfez \u0130\u015fbirli\u011fi Konseyi (K\u0130K) devletlerinin t\u00fcm monarklar\u0131yla ileti\u015fime ge\u00e7meye \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 olduk\u00e7a olas\u0131d\u0131r. Ayn\u0131 zamanda Ba\u015fkan Obama\u2019n\u0131n hem Ba\u011fdat h\u00fck\u00fcmeti hem de K\u00fcrt B\u00f6lgesel Y\u00f6netimi\u2019ne yard\u0131m ederek Irak \u015eam \u0130slam Devleti\u2019ni (I\u015e\u0130D) Irak\u2019ta yenilgiye u\u011fratma \u00e7abalar\u0131n\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmesi de muhtemeldir. Clinton\u2019\u0131n \u0130ran-Amerika ili\u015fkilerinde \u00f6nemli bir iyile\u015fme olabilece\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnde olmas\u0131 m\u00fcmk\u00fcn de\u011filse de Obama Y\u00f6netimi\u2019nin \u00fczerinde \u00e7ok \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u0130ran\u2019la n\u00fckleer anla\u015fmay\u0131 korumaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015facakt\u0131r. Bunun sebebi de olduk\u00e7a a\u00e7\u0131kt\u0131r: ABD ve b\u00f6lgedeki baz\u0131 m\u00fcttefiklerin \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n Suriye\u2019de veya b\u00f6lgede ba\u015fka yerlerde yapt\u0131klar\u0131ndan ho\u015fnutsuz olsa da \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n n\u00fckleer silah elde etme kapasitesine baz\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlamalar getirilmesi hi\u00e7 getirilmemesinden hepimiz i\u00e7in daha iyi olacakt\u0131r. Clinton\u2019un Suudilerin Yemen\u2019deki Husilere ili\u015fkin endi\u015felerini payla\u015fmakla birlikte, Obama Y\u00f6netimi\u2019nin Suudilerin Yemen\u2019e y\u00f6nelik sert m\u00fcdahalesinin ters etki yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131na dair kayg\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 devralmas\u0131 da muhtemeldir. Ayr\u0131ca Amerikan kaya gaz\u0131 ABD\u2019yi Orta Do\u011fu petrol\u00fcne daha az ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131 hale getirecek olsa da Clinton\u2019un b\u00f6lgenin petrol ihrac\u0131 kapasitesini korumay\u0131 ve Arap petrol ihracat\u00e7\u0131lar\u0131 ile yak\u0131n bir i\u015f birli\u011fi i\u00e7inde olmay\u0131, Amerika\u2019n\u0131n m\u00fcttefikleri ve t\u00fcm k\u00fcresel ekonomi i\u00e7in \u00f6nemli g\u00f6rmeyi s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmesi muhtemeldir.[4]<\/a><\/p>\nClinton\u2019un Orta Do\u011fu liderleri ile aras\u0131nda Obama\u2019dan daha ba\u015far\u0131l\u0131 bir bi\u00e7imde angajman sa\u011flamas\u0131 olas\u0131d\u0131r. Ancak b\u00f6lgedeki mevkida\u015flar\u0131 ile daha dostane ba\u011flar kurmu\u015f olmas\u0131 tek ba\u015f\u0131na baz\u0131 konulara ili\u015fkin- ki \u00f6zellikle bu konular\u0131n ABD kamuoyu ve Kongre\u2019nin g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fc ile ya da Amerika hukuku ile \u00e7ak\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 durumunda \u2013 bu \u00fclkelerin Washington ile olan anla\u015fmazl\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7\u00f6zemeyecektir. Zira Clinton\u2019un Fethullah G\u00fclen\u2019i T\u00fcrkiye\u2019ye iade etmede Obama\u2019dan daha istekli olmas\u0131 ya da bunu yapabilmesi uzak bir ihtimaldir (asl\u0131nda Clinton G\u00fclen\u2019i iade etmeyi istese dahi Amerika\u2019n\u0131n hukuk sisteminin buna izin verip vermeyece\u011fi uzun bir zamand\u0131r olduk\u00e7a netle\u015ftirilememi\u015ftir).<\/p>\n
Ayr\u0131ca, Clinton\u2019un bir \u0130srail-Filistin bar\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 m\u00fczakere etme konusunda Obama\u2019dan ya da daha \u00f6nceki Amerikan ba\u015fkanlar\u0131n\u0131n herhangi birinden daha ba\u015far\u0131l\u0131 olmamas\u0131 da olas\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcnmektedir. Hatta Clinton\u2019un bu konuda ciddi bir \u00e7aba bile g\u00f6stermeyece\u011fini \u00f6ng\u00f6rebiliriz.<\/p>\n
Clinton\u2019un b\u00f6lge liderleriyle daha iyi ili\u015fkiler i\u00e7inde olmas\u0131, Washington\u2019un zarar verici oldu\u011fundan endi\u015fe etti\u011fi politikalar\u0131n de\u011fi\u015fmesini sa\u011flamayacakt\u0131r (Yemen\u2019de Suudi m\u00fcdahalesi ve Sisi\u2019nin \u00fclke i\u00e7indeki muhaliflerine bask\u0131s\u0131 gibi). Clinton\u2019un, Obama\u2019n\u0131n Amerika\u2019n\u0131n \u0130srailli ve K\u00f6rfez\u2019deki Arap m\u00fcttefiklerini \u0130ran n\u00fckleer anla\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n asl\u0131nda onlar\u0131n \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131na oldu\u011fu ve Amerika\u2019n\u0131n bu anla\u015fmaya verdi\u011fi deste\u011fin Amerika\u2019n\u0131n onlar\u0131 savunma taahh\u00fcd\u00fcnde bir gerileme anlam\u0131na gelmedi\u011fi konusunda ikna etme ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 yakalamas\u0131 da uzak bir ihtimaldir.<\/p>\n
Clinton\u2019un kesinlikle yararl\u0131 g\u00f6rmeyece\u011fi bir di\u011fer \u015fey, Suriye ile \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm\u00fcnde ya da herhangi ba\u015fka bir konuda Rusya ile i\u015f birli\u011fi konusunda \u00e7aba g\u00f6stermek olacakt\u0131r.[5]<\/a> Di\u011fer yandan Clinton, Suriye\u2019deki Rus m\u00fcdahalesine kar\u015f\u0131, daha geni\u015f bir \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma riski nedeniyle, meydan okumay\u0131p Rusya\u2019n\u0131n Suriye\u2019ye y\u00f6nelik politikas\u0131n\u0131n hem Orta Do\u011fu\u2019da hem de Avrupa\u2019da yarataca\u011f\u0131 hayal k\u0131r\u0131kl\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan avantaj sa\u011flama aray\u0131\u015f\u0131nda olacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\nTrump: S\u00fcreklilikten \u00c7ok De\u011fi\u015fim<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\nClinton\u2019dan farkl\u0131 bir bi\u00e7imde, Trump\u2019\u0131n d\u0131\u015f politika \u00fcretme konusunda bir deneyimi yoktur ve g\u00f6r\u00fcnen o ki Orta Do\u011fu hakk\u0131nda da \u00e7ok az bilgi sahibidir. Cumhuriyet\u00e7ilerin aday g\u00f6sterme s\u00fcrecinin ilk evresinde Trump, Bush y\u00f6netiminin Irak\u2019a m\u00fcdahalesine kar\u015f\u0131 sert bir muhalefet g\u00f6stermi\u015ftir. Di\u011fer yandan Trump, \u201cI\u015e\u0130D\u2019i yok etme\u201d s\u00f6z\u00fc vermi\u015f ancak bunu nas\u0131l yapaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamam\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. \u0130ran\u2019la n\u00fckleer anla\u015fmaya kar\u015f\u0131 muhalefet etmi\u015f ve t\u00fcmden bir yana at\u0131lmayacaksa da anla\u015fman\u0131n de\u011fi\u015fti\u011fini g\u00f6rmeyi iste\u011fini belirtmi\u015ftir. Ancak bu anla\u015fma olmadan \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n n\u00fckleer silahlar elde etmesini nas\u0131l \u00f6nleyece\u011fi belirsizdir.[6]<\/a><\/p>\nTrump\u2019\u0131n, Clinton\u2019dan farkl\u0131 olarak, Suriye ve di\u011fer konularda Putin Rusya\u2019s\u0131 ile \u00e7al\u0131\u015fma aray\u0131\u015f\u0131nda olacak olmas\u0131 kuvvetle muhtemeldir.[7]<\/a> Ancak bunu yaparak ne elde edebilece\u011fi konusu bir hayli muallakt\u0131r. Trump ba\u015fkanl\u0131k se\u00e7imi kampanyas\u0131 boyunca Putin\u2019e ili\u015fkin olduk\u00e7a olumlu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fleri oldu\u011funu ifade etmi\u015f olsa da Putin ile i\u015f birli\u011fi yapamamas\u0131 durumunda aniden ve \u015fiddetli bir bi\u00e7imde Putin\u2019in d\u00fc\u015fman\u0131 oldu\u011funu a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131 s\u00fcrpriz olmayacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\nTrump\u2019\u0131n g\u00f6klere \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131lan m\u00fczakere yetisinin, hepsinden de\u011filse de Orta Do\u011fulu liderlerin b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00e7o\u011funlu\u011fundan istedi\u011fini elde etmesini sa\u011flayaca\u011f\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fclebilir. Bu anlamda, bunun ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmemesi durumunda ki bu kuvvetle muhtemeldir, hayal k\u0131r\u0131kl\u0131\u011f\u0131na u\u011framas\u0131 m\u00fcmk\u00fcnd\u00fcr. Asl\u0131nda Trump\u2019\u0131n kavgac\u0131 ki\u015fili\u011finin Orta Do\u011fulu liderlerle anla\u015fmaya varmas\u0131na yard\u0131mc\u0131 olmak yerine Orta Do\u011fu\u2019nun kendi kavgac\u0131 liderleri ile \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmas\u0131na ve daha az kavgac\u0131 liderlerle de aras\u0131n\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131na yol a\u00e7mas\u0131 olas\u0131d\u0131r. Trump Amerika\u2019n\u0131n Orta Do\u011fu\u2019da ve ba\u015fka herhangi bir yerdeki geleneksel m\u00fcttefikleri ile aras\u0131n\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131 riskini Clinton\u2019dan daha \u00e7ok ta\u015f\u0131maktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Ancak Orta Do\u011fu\u2019da istedi\u011fini yapamamas\u0131n\u0131n nedeni ne olursa olsun, Trump bu b\u00f6lgenin dikkate de\u011fer olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131na karar vererek tepkisini g\u00f6sterebilir. Amerika\u2019n\u0131n petrol konusunda Orta Do\u011fu\u2019ya ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n azalmas\u0131 Trump taraf\u0131ndan b\u00f6lgeden \u00e7ekilme ya da b\u00f6lgeyi g\u00f6rmezden gelme gerek\u00e7elerinden biri olarak sunulabilir. Amerika\u2019n\u0131n b\u00f6lgeden ithal edilen petrole ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131 m\u00fcttefikleri Trump taraf\u0131ndan di\u011fer kaynaklardan (Amerika ve Rusya gibi) petrol almaya ya da buras\u0131n\u0131n kendileri i\u00e7in \u00e7ok \u00f6nemli olmas\u0131 durumunda kendi ba\u015flar\u0131na Orta Do\u011fu ile ba\u015f etmeye \u00e7a\u011fr\u0131labilir.<\/p>\n
B\u00f6ylesi bir yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131n Orta Do\u011fu\u2019da b\u00f6lgede istikrar\u0131 art\u0131rmak \u015f\u00f6yle dursun Amerika\u2019n\u0131n etkisini art\u0131rmaya hizmet etmeyece\u011fini s\u00f6ylemeye gerek yoktur. Ancak Orta Do\u011fu\u2019nun Amerikan d\u0131\u015f politikas\u0131 i\u00e7in \u00f6nceki y\u00f6netimlerin d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc kadar \u00f6nemli olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131na karar vermesi halinde, bu durum Trump\u2019\u0131 ilgilendirmeyebilecektir. Asl\u0131nda Trump- ve destek\u00e7ilerinin \u00e7o\u011fu- Orta Do\u011fu\u2019nun, Amerika burada aktif bir bi\u00e7imde s\u00fcrece kar\u0131\u015fs\u0131n ya da kar\u0131\u015fmas\u0131n, berbat bir hal alaca\u011f\u0131na ve bu nedenle ABD\u2019nin b\u00f6lgenin uzun \u00f6m\u00fcrl\u00fc sorunlar\u0131na kar\u0131\u015fmaktan geri durmas\u0131n\u0131n bu bata\u011fa saplan\u0131p kalmas\u0131ndan daha iyi olaca\u011f\u0131na g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir bi\u00e7imde inanabilir.<\/p>\n
Amerikan Politika Tercihleri ve B\u00f6lgesel Ger\u00e7eklikler<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\nTrump Y\u00f6netimi\u2019nin Orta Do\u011fu\u2019ya (ve d\u00fcnyaya) y\u00f6nelik d\u0131\u015f politikas\u0131 Clinton Y\u00f6netimi\u2019ninkinden \u00e7ok daha dengesiz ve melodramatik olacakt\u0131r. Ancak Clinton\u2019\u0131n ba\u015fkan olmas\u0131 \u00e7ok daha olas\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcnd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc i\u00e7in, onun de\u011fi\u015fim yerine devam\u0131 vurgulayan politikas\u0131n\u0131n uygulanmas\u0131 kuvvetle muhtemeldir. Yine de Amerika kamuoyunun m\u00fcdahaleye kar\u015f\u0131 isteksizli\u011fi, Amerika\u2019n\u0131n Orta Do\u011fu petrol\u00fcne ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n azalmas\u0131, Rusya, \u00c7in ve Avrupa\u2019ya ili\u015fkin Amerikan endi\u015felerinin y\u00fckseli\u015fi ve Amerika\u2019n\u0131n Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki her \u015feyin pek \u00e7o\u011funa eri\u015femeyece\u011fi genel anlay\u0131\u015f\u0131 gibi fakt\u00f6rler Clinton y\u00f6netiminin bu b\u00f6lgede aktif bir politika s\u00fcrd\u00fcrme becerisini s\u0131n\u0131rlayabilir.<\/p>\n
Daha \u00f6nceki Amerika ba\u015fkanlar\u0131nda g\u00f6zlendi\u011fi gibi, Clinton y\u00f6netiminin Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki olaylar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda tepkisel bir politika izlemeye son vermesi ve bunun yerine kendi y\u00f6netiminin b\u00f6lgeye y\u00f6nelik vizyonunu s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmeye odaklanan bir politika \u00fcretmesi olas\u0131d\u0131r. Asl\u0131nda Bush ve Obama y\u00f6netimlerinin birbirinden farkl\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fck vizyonlar\u0131n\u0131n her ikisinin birden Orta Do\u011fu ger\u00e7eklikleri kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda nas\u0131l k\u00f6steklendi\u011fini g\u00f6rerek, t\u00fcm hedeflerinden vazge\u00e7ebilir ve olaylara gidi\u015fata g\u00f6re tepki vermeye ve b\u00f6lgedeki sorunlar\u0131 \u00e7\u00f6zmekten ziyade sadece kontrol alt\u0131na almaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmaya odaklanabilir. D\u0131\u015fi\u015fleri Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 deneyimi onu, bunun Amerika\u2019n\u0131n yapabilece\u011fi en iyisi ve ayn\u0131 zamanda en fazlas\u0131 oldu\u011funa ikna edebilecektir.<\/p>\n
Ancak b\u00f6lgeyle ilgilensinler ya da ilgilenmesinler, Orta Do\u011fu daha \u00f6nceki Amerika ba\u015fkanlar\u0131n\u0131 me\u015fgul etmenin yolunu bir \u015fekilde bulmu\u015ftur. Hal b\u00f6yleyken, m\u00fcstakbel Amerika ba\u015fkan\u0131 i\u00e7in de ayn\u0131 durumun s\u00f6z konusu olmas\u0131 \u00e7ok olas\u0131d\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Referanslar<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n[1]<\/a> Se\u00e7imlere ili\u015fkin bilgi i\u00e7in bak\u0131n\u0131z: FiveThirtyEight 2016 Election Forecast,\u201d http:\/\/projects.fivethirtyeight.com\/2016-election-forecast\/<\/a> (Site birka\u00e7 saatte bir g\u00fcncellenmektedir)<\/p>\n[2]<\/a> Amerika\u2019n\u0131n Orta Do\u011fu\u2019ya y\u00f6nelik tutumu konusunda Shibley Telhami\u2019nin Brookings Institution taraf\u0131ndan yay\u0131nlanm\u0131\u015f \u00e7e\u015fitli \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131na bak\u0131labilir: (https:\/\/www.brookings.edu\/author\/shibley-telhami\/?type=research<\/a>)<\/p>\n[3]<\/a> Josh Rogin, \u201cWill Hillary Clinton deliver on her promise to ramp up U.S. involvement in Syria?\u201d Washington Post, 23 Ekim 2016, https:\/\/www.washingtonpost.com\/opinions\/global-opinions\/will-hillary-clintondeliver-on-her-promise-to-ramp-up-usinvolvement-in-syria\/2016\/10\/23\/1f2788e4-97bd-11e6-bc79-af1cd3d2984b_story.html?utm_term=.a551388cc8ca<\/a><\/p>\n[4]<\/a> \u201cFrom the Middle East and Asia to Europe and our own hemisphere, Hillary will strengthen the essential partnerships that are a unique source of America\u2019s strength.\u201d \u201cNational Security\u201d konulu sayfa: https:\/\/www.hillaryclinton.com\/issues\/national-security\/<\/a><\/p>\n[5]<\/a> Jack Goldstone, \u201cThe results of the US election will greatly influence relations with Russia,\u201d Russia Direct, 5 Ekim 2016, http:\/\/ www.russia-direct.org\/opinion\/results-uselection-will-greatly-influence-relationsrussia<\/a><\/p>\n[6]<\/a> \u201cDonald Trump on foreign policy,\u201d http:\/\/www.ontheissues.org\/2016\/Donald_Trump_Foreign_Policy.htm<\/a><\/p>\n[7]<\/a> \u201cDonald Trump, Putin\u2019s puppet,\u201d Washington Post, 10 Ekim 2016, https:\/\/www.washingtonpost.com\/opinions\/global-opinions\/donald-trump-putinspuppet\/2016\/10\/10\/451f099e-8f0e-11e6-a6a3-d50061aa9fae_story.html?utm_term=.939840c307fc<\/a><\/p>\n <\/p>\n
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<\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Donald Trump\u2019\u0131n Amerika Birle\u015fik Devletleri Ba\u015fkan\u0131 olarak se\u00e7ilmesi Amerika\u2019n\u0131n di\u011fer yerlerde oldu\u011fu kadar Orta Do\u011fu\u2019ya y\u00f6nelik d\u0131\u015f politikas\u0131nda da dramatik bir de\u011fi\u015fime neden olabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":43,"featured_media":10376,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","ngg_post_thumbnail":0},"categories":[361],"tags":[],"asf_pub_issue":[10319],"asf_pub_region":[10321],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10375"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/43"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=10375"}],"version-history":[{"count":7,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10375\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":29963,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10375\/revisions\/29963"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/10376"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=10375"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=10375"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=10375"},{"taxonomy":"asf_pub_issue","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/asf_pub_issue?post=10375"},{"taxonomy":"asf_pub_region","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/asf_pub_region?post=10375"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}
\u00d6zet<\/span><\/strong>: Donald Trump\u2019\u0131n Amerika Birle\u015fik Devletleri Ba\u015fkan\u0131 olarak se\u00e7ilmesi Amerika\u2019n\u0131n di\u011fer yerlerde oldu\u011fu kadar Orta Do\u011fu\u2019ya y\u00f6nelik d\u0131\u015f politikas\u0131nda da dramatik bir de\u011fi\u015fime neden olabilir. Kazanmas\u0131 \u00e7ok daha b\u00fcy\u00fck bir olas\u0131l\u0131k olan Hillary Clinton\u2019\u0131n ba\u015fkan olmas\u0131 durumunda Amerika\u2019n\u0131n d\u0131\u015f politikas\u0131nda de\u011fi\u015fimden \u00e7ok bir s\u00fcreklilik s\u00f6z konusu olacakt\u0131r. Clinton\u2019un b\u00f6lgede kendi inisiyatifiyle hareket etme kabiliyeti ise b\u00f6lgesel ger\u00e7eklikler ve hem uluslararas\u0131 hem de Amerika \u00f6l\u00e7e\u011finde daha kapsaml\u0131 siyasal ve ekonomik k\u0131s\u0131tlamalarla s\u0131n\u0131rland\u0131racakt\u0131r. Buna ilaveten, se\u00e7ilecek olan ba\u015fkan b\u00f6lgeye seleflerinden daha az a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131k vermeyi tercih edebilecek olsa bile, Orta Do\u011fu, Beyaz Saray\u2019da bulunanlar\u0131n kafas\u0131n\u0131 me\u015fgul etmek i\u00e7in muhakkak bir yol bulacakt\u0131r.<\/span><\/p>\n Amerika\u2019n\u0131n Demokrat ve Cumhuriyet\u00e7i ba\u015fkan adaylar\u0131n\u0131n d\u0131\u015f politikaya dair yakla\u015f\u0131mlar\u0131 her zaman birbirinden farkl\u0131 olmu\u015ftur, ancak bu farkl\u0131l\u0131klar bu y\u0131l her zaman oldu\u011fundan daha keskin olacak gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Demokratlar\u0131n aday\u0131 Hillary Clinton ya da Cumhuriyet\u00e7i Donald Trump\u2019un se\u00e7ilmesi halinde Amerikan d\u0131\u015f politikas\u0131n\u0131n, Orta Do\u011fu da d\u00e2hil olmak \u00fczere nas\u0131l bir seyir izleyece\u011fine dair olduk\u00e7a farkl\u0131 \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131mlar s\u00f6z konusudur. Geldi\u011fimiz noktada Clinton\u2019un se\u00e7ilmesi \u00e7ok daha olas\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcnmektedir. Bu nedenle burada Clinton\u2019un b\u00f6lgeye y\u00f6nelik d\u0131\u015f politikas\u0131n\u0131n nas\u0131l olabilece\u011fi konusuna a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131k verilecektir.[1]<\/a> Se\u00e7ilmesi uzak bir ihtimal olsa da dile getirdi\u011fi fikirlerin baz\u0131lar\u0131 pek \u00e7ok Amerikal\u0131y\u0131 cezbediyor oldu\u011fu ve bu nedenle de s\u00fcrekli bir etkisi olabilece\u011fi i\u00e7in Trump\u2019un b\u00f6lgeye yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131 konusu da ele al\u0131nacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n \u00d6ncelikle yeni Amerika Ba\u015fkan\u0131\u2019n\u0131n, her kim se\u00e7ilirse se\u00e7ilsin; ABD Kongresi\u2019nin, medyan\u0131n ve kamuoyunun Orta Do\u011fu\u2019ya ili\u015fkin genel kayg\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n \u00fcstesinden gelmek durumunda olaca\u011f\u0131na de\u011finmek \u00f6nemlidir. Bunlar; Bush y\u00f6netiminin Afganistan ve Irak\u2019a y\u00f6nelik ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirdi\u011fi \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde bir m\u00fcdahaleden ka\u00e7\u0131nma iste\u011fidir ki bu durum, Obama Y\u00f6netimi\u2019nin m\u00fcdahaleye y\u00f6nelik isteksizli\u011finin di\u011ferlerine – \u00f6zellikle Rusya\u2019ya – b\u00f6lgede Amerika\u2019n\u0131n \u00e7\u0131karlar\u0131na etki etmesi gibi bir korkuyla birle\u015fiyor; \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n n\u00fckleer anla\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n Tahran\u2019\u0131n b\u00f6lgesel politikas\u0131nda bir \u0131l\u0131ml\u0131l\u0131\u011fa yol a\u00e7mad\u0131\u011f\u0131 endi\u015fesi; Suudi Arabistan\u2019\u0131n h\u00e2lihaz\u0131rdaki liderli\u011finin bilhassa Yemen\u2019de, ters etki yaratan politikalar\u0131n\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrece\u011fi korkusu; Netanyahu h\u00fck\u00fcmetinin bir \u0130srail-Filistin bar\u0131\u015f anla\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n yap\u0131labilmesi konusunda anlaml\u0131 bir ilerleme kaydetmemesi anlam\u0131na gelecek kat\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve bunun bir sonucu olarak Amerika\u2019n\u0131n b\u00f6lgedeki \u00e7\u0131karlar\u0131n\u0131n zarar g\u00f6rece\u011fi kayg\u0131s\u0131; Sisi rejiminin kat\u0131 politikalar\u0131n\u0131n M\u0131s\u0131r\u2019da \u00e7alkant\u0131ya yol a\u00e7aca\u011f\u0131 ancak Kahire\u2019yi bu do\u011frultusunu de\u011fi\u015ftirmeye y\u00f6nelik \u00e7abalar\u0131n M\u0131s\u0131r-Amerika ili\u015fkilerini sadece daha da zay\u0131flataca\u011f\u0131 endi\u015fesi; Amerika\u2019daki kaya gaz\u0131 \u00fcretimindeki b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin ABD\u2019nin yeralt\u0131 kaynaklar\u0131 hususunda Orta Do\u011fu\u2019ya daha az ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131 oldu\u011fu anlam\u0131na gelebilece\u011fi genel anlay\u0131\u015f\u0131 ve elbette ki T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin Amerika ve Bat\u0131 ile aras\u0131ndaki ciddi gerilim ve gerginli\u011fin onar\u0131l\u0131p onar\u0131lamayaca\u011f\u0131na ili\u015fkin endi\u015fe.[2]<\/a> T\u00fcm bunlar\u0131 hat\u0131rda tutarak, ba\u015fkan adaylar\u0131n\u0131n her birinin b\u00f6lgeye y\u00f6nelik Amerika d\u0131\u015f politikas\u0131n\u0131 nas\u0131l g\u00f6rebilece\u011fi konusuna d\u00f6nebiliriz.<\/p>\n<\/div> Clinton: De\u011fi\u015fimden Ziyade S\u00fcreklilik<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n Hillary Clinton, pek \u00e7ok ba\u015fkan\u0131n g\u00f6reve geldi\u011findekinden farkl\u0131 olarak, Ba\u015fkan Obama\u2019n\u0131n ilk d\u00f6neminde (2009-2013) D\u0131\u015fi\u015fleri Bakan\u0131 olmas\u0131 nedeniyle, Orta Do\u011fu\u2019ya ili\u015fkin d\u0131\u015f politika konular\u0131na a\u015finad\u0131r. Clinton\u2019un Esad rejimine y\u00f6nelik ayaklanmalar\u0131n ba\u015flamas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan, 2011 y\u0131l\u0131nda Amerika\u2019n\u0131n Suriye\u2019de daha aktif bir rol oynamas\u0131ndan yana oldu\u011fu, ancak bunun Obama taraf\u0131ndan reddedildi\u011fi s\u00f6ylenmektedir. Kampanyas\u0131nda yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 son a\u00e7\u0131klamalar da Clinton\u2019un Suriye\u2019ye ili\u015fkin olarak bir \u015feyler yapmay\u0131 istedi\u011fini ancak ayn\u0131 zamanda \u015fu anda Rusya\u2019n\u0131n orada a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olarak bulundu\u011funu ve ABD\u2019nin orada \u00f6nemli herhangi bir \u015fey yapabilece\u011fi zaman\u0131n art\u0131k ge\u00e7mi\u015f olabilece\u011finin hakk\u0131n\u0131 teslim etti\u011fini ortaya koymaktad\u0131r.[3]<\/a> Bu nedenle, Clinton\u2019un Suriye\u2019ye y\u00f6nelik politikas\u0131 Obama Y\u00f6netimi\u2019ninkinden \u00e7ok da farkl\u0131 olmayabilir. Clinton\u2019un Amerika\u2019n\u0131n b\u00f6lgedeki m\u00fcttefikleri ile y\u0131pranm\u0131\u015f olan ba\u011flar\u0131n\u0131 yeniden kurmaya a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131k vermesi ve bunu yapmak i\u00e7in de oradaki pek \u00e7ok liderle geni\u015f tecr\u00fcbelerine dayanmas\u0131 muhtemeldir. Bu y\u00fczden T\u00fcrkiye Cumhurba\u015fkan\u0131 Erdo\u011fan, \u0130srail Ba\u015fbakan\u0131 Netanyahu, \u00dcrd\u00fcn Kral\u0131 Abdullah, M\u0131s\u0131r Cumhurba\u015fkan\u0131 Sisi gibi liderlerle ve K\u00f6rfez \u0130\u015fbirli\u011fi Konseyi (K\u0130K) devletlerinin t\u00fcm monarklar\u0131yla ileti\u015fime ge\u00e7meye \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 olduk\u00e7a olas\u0131d\u0131r. Ayn\u0131 zamanda Ba\u015fkan Obama\u2019n\u0131n hem Ba\u011fdat h\u00fck\u00fcmeti hem de K\u00fcrt B\u00f6lgesel Y\u00f6netimi\u2019ne yard\u0131m ederek Irak \u015eam \u0130slam Devleti\u2019ni (I\u015e\u0130D) Irak\u2019ta yenilgiye u\u011fratma \u00e7abalar\u0131n\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmesi de muhtemeldir. Clinton\u2019\u0131n \u0130ran-Amerika ili\u015fkilerinde \u00f6nemli bir iyile\u015fme olabilece\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnde olmas\u0131 m\u00fcmk\u00fcn de\u011filse de Obama Y\u00f6netimi\u2019nin \u00fczerinde \u00e7ok \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u0130ran\u2019la n\u00fckleer anla\u015fmay\u0131 korumaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015facakt\u0131r. Bunun sebebi de olduk\u00e7a a\u00e7\u0131kt\u0131r: ABD ve b\u00f6lgedeki baz\u0131 m\u00fcttefiklerin \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n Suriye\u2019de veya b\u00f6lgede ba\u015fka yerlerde yapt\u0131klar\u0131ndan ho\u015fnutsuz olsa da \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n n\u00fckleer silah elde etme kapasitesine baz\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlamalar getirilmesi hi\u00e7 getirilmemesinden hepimiz i\u00e7in daha iyi olacakt\u0131r. Clinton\u2019un Suudilerin Yemen\u2019deki Husilere ili\u015fkin endi\u015felerini payla\u015fmakla birlikte, Obama Y\u00f6netimi\u2019nin Suudilerin Yemen\u2019e y\u00f6nelik sert m\u00fcdahalesinin ters etki yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131na dair kayg\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 devralmas\u0131 da muhtemeldir. Ayr\u0131ca Amerikan kaya gaz\u0131 ABD\u2019yi Orta Do\u011fu petrol\u00fcne daha az ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131 hale getirecek olsa da Clinton\u2019un b\u00f6lgenin petrol ihrac\u0131 kapasitesini korumay\u0131 ve Arap petrol ihracat\u00e7\u0131lar\u0131 ile yak\u0131n bir i\u015f birli\u011fi i\u00e7inde olmay\u0131, Amerika\u2019n\u0131n m\u00fcttefikleri ve t\u00fcm k\u00fcresel ekonomi i\u00e7in \u00f6nemli g\u00f6rmeyi s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmesi muhtemeldir.[4]<\/a><\/p>\n Clinton\u2019un Orta Do\u011fu liderleri ile aras\u0131nda Obama\u2019dan daha ba\u015far\u0131l\u0131 bir bi\u00e7imde angajman sa\u011flamas\u0131 olas\u0131d\u0131r. Ancak b\u00f6lgedeki mevkida\u015flar\u0131 ile daha dostane ba\u011flar kurmu\u015f olmas\u0131 tek ba\u015f\u0131na baz\u0131 konulara ili\u015fkin- ki \u00f6zellikle bu konular\u0131n ABD kamuoyu ve Kongre\u2019nin g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fc ile ya da Amerika hukuku ile \u00e7ak\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 durumunda \u2013 bu \u00fclkelerin Washington ile olan anla\u015fmazl\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7\u00f6zemeyecektir. Zira Clinton\u2019un Fethullah G\u00fclen\u2019i T\u00fcrkiye\u2019ye iade etmede Obama\u2019dan daha istekli olmas\u0131 ya da bunu yapabilmesi uzak bir ihtimaldir (asl\u0131nda Clinton G\u00fclen\u2019i iade etmeyi istese dahi Amerika\u2019n\u0131n hukuk sisteminin buna izin verip vermeyece\u011fi uzun bir zamand\u0131r olduk\u00e7a netle\u015ftirilememi\u015ftir).<\/p>\n Ayr\u0131ca, Clinton\u2019un bir \u0130srail-Filistin bar\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 m\u00fczakere etme konusunda Obama\u2019dan ya da daha \u00f6nceki Amerikan ba\u015fkanlar\u0131n\u0131n herhangi birinden daha ba\u015far\u0131l\u0131 olmamas\u0131 da olas\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcnmektedir. Hatta Clinton\u2019un bu konuda ciddi bir \u00e7aba bile g\u00f6stermeyece\u011fini \u00f6ng\u00f6rebiliriz.<\/p>\n Clinton\u2019un b\u00f6lge liderleriyle daha iyi ili\u015fkiler i\u00e7inde olmas\u0131, Washington\u2019un zarar verici oldu\u011fundan endi\u015fe etti\u011fi politikalar\u0131n de\u011fi\u015fmesini sa\u011flamayacakt\u0131r (Yemen\u2019de Suudi m\u00fcdahalesi ve Sisi\u2019nin \u00fclke i\u00e7indeki muhaliflerine bask\u0131s\u0131 gibi). Clinton\u2019un, Obama\u2019n\u0131n Amerika\u2019n\u0131n \u0130srailli ve K\u00f6rfez\u2019deki Arap m\u00fcttefiklerini \u0130ran n\u00fckleer anla\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n asl\u0131nda onlar\u0131n \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131na oldu\u011fu ve Amerika\u2019n\u0131n bu anla\u015fmaya verdi\u011fi deste\u011fin Amerika\u2019n\u0131n onlar\u0131 savunma taahh\u00fcd\u00fcnde bir gerileme anlam\u0131na gelmedi\u011fi konusunda ikna etme ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 yakalamas\u0131 da uzak bir ihtimaldir.<\/p>\n Clinton\u2019un kesinlikle yararl\u0131 g\u00f6rmeyece\u011fi bir di\u011fer \u015fey, Suriye ile \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm\u00fcnde ya da herhangi ba\u015fka bir konuda Rusya ile i\u015f birli\u011fi konusunda \u00e7aba g\u00f6stermek olacakt\u0131r.[5]<\/a> Di\u011fer yandan Clinton, Suriye\u2019deki Rus m\u00fcdahalesine kar\u015f\u0131, daha geni\u015f bir \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma riski nedeniyle, meydan okumay\u0131p Rusya\u2019n\u0131n Suriye\u2019ye y\u00f6nelik politikas\u0131n\u0131n hem Orta Do\u011fu\u2019da hem de Avrupa\u2019da yarataca\u011f\u0131 hayal k\u0131r\u0131kl\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan avantaj sa\u011flama aray\u0131\u015f\u0131nda olacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n Trump: S\u00fcreklilikten \u00c7ok De\u011fi\u015fim<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n Clinton\u2019dan farkl\u0131 bir bi\u00e7imde, Trump\u2019\u0131n d\u0131\u015f politika \u00fcretme konusunda bir deneyimi yoktur ve g\u00f6r\u00fcnen o ki Orta Do\u011fu hakk\u0131nda da \u00e7ok az bilgi sahibidir. Cumhuriyet\u00e7ilerin aday g\u00f6sterme s\u00fcrecinin ilk evresinde Trump, Bush y\u00f6netiminin Irak\u2019a m\u00fcdahalesine kar\u015f\u0131 sert bir muhalefet g\u00f6stermi\u015ftir. Di\u011fer yandan Trump, \u201cI\u015e\u0130D\u2019i yok etme\u201d s\u00f6z\u00fc vermi\u015f ancak bunu nas\u0131l yapaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamam\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. \u0130ran\u2019la n\u00fckleer anla\u015fmaya kar\u015f\u0131 muhalefet etmi\u015f ve t\u00fcmden bir yana at\u0131lmayacaksa da anla\u015fman\u0131n de\u011fi\u015fti\u011fini g\u00f6rmeyi iste\u011fini belirtmi\u015ftir. Ancak bu anla\u015fma olmadan \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n n\u00fckleer silahlar elde etmesini nas\u0131l \u00f6nleyece\u011fi belirsizdir.[6]<\/a><\/p>\n Trump\u2019\u0131n, Clinton\u2019dan farkl\u0131 olarak, Suriye ve di\u011fer konularda Putin Rusya\u2019s\u0131 ile \u00e7al\u0131\u015fma aray\u0131\u015f\u0131nda olacak olmas\u0131 kuvvetle muhtemeldir.[7]<\/a> Ancak bunu yaparak ne elde edebilece\u011fi konusu bir hayli muallakt\u0131r. Trump ba\u015fkanl\u0131k se\u00e7imi kampanyas\u0131 boyunca Putin\u2019e ili\u015fkin olduk\u00e7a olumlu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fleri oldu\u011funu ifade etmi\u015f olsa da Putin ile i\u015f birli\u011fi yapamamas\u0131 durumunda aniden ve \u015fiddetli bir bi\u00e7imde Putin\u2019in d\u00fc\u015fman\u0131 oldu\u011funu a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131 s\u00fcrpriz olmayacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n Trump\u2019\u0131n g\u00f6klere \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131lan m\u00fczakere yetisinin, hepsinden de\u011filse de Orta Do\u011fulu liderlerin b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00e7o\u011funlu\u011fundan istedi\u011fini elde etmesini sa\u011flayaca\u011f\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fclebilir. Bu anlamda, bunun ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmemesi durumunda ki bu kuvvetle muhtemeldir, hayal k\u0131r\u0131kl\u0131\u011f\u0131na u\u011framas\u0131 m\u00fcmk\u00fcnd\u00fcr. Asl\u0131nda Trump\u2019\u0131n kavgac\u0131 ki\u015fili\u011finin Orta Do\u011fulu liderlerle anla\u015fmaya varmas\u0131na yard\u0131mc\u0131 olmak yerine Orta Do\u011fu\u2019nun kendi kavgac\u0131 liderleri ile \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmas\u0131na ve daha az kavgac\u0131 liderlerle de aras\u0131n\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131na yol a\u00e7mas\u0131 olas\u0131d\u0131r. Trump Amerika\u2019n\u0131n Orta Do\u011fu\u2019da ve ba\u015fka herhangi bir yerdeki geleneksel m\u00fcttefikleri ile aras\u0131n\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131 riskini Clinton\u2019dan daha \u00e7ok ta\u015f\u0131maktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n Ancak Orta Do\u011fu\u2019da istedi\u011fini yapamamas\u0131n\u0131n nedeni ne olursa olsun, Trump bu b\u00f6lgenin dikkate de\u011fer olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131na karar vererek tepkisini g\u00f6sterebilir. Amerika\u2019n\u0131n petrol konusunda Orta Do\u011fu\u2019ya ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n azalmas\u0131 Trump taraf\u0131ndan b\u00f6lgeden \u00e7ekilme ya da b\u00f6lgeyi g\u00f6rmezden gelme gerek\u00e7elerinden biri olarak sunulabilir. Amerika\u2019n\u0131n b\u00f6lgeden ithal edilen petrole ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131 m\u00fcttefikleri Trump taraf\u0131ndan di\u011fer kaynaklardan (Amerika ve Rusya gibi) petrol almaya ya da buras\u0131n\u0131n kendileri i\u00e7in \u00e7ok \u00f6nemli olmas\u0131 durumunda kendi ba\u015flar\u0131na Orta Do\u011fu ile ba\u015f etmeye \u00e7a\u011fr\u0131labilir.<\/p>\n B\u00f6ylesi bir yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131n Orta Do\u011fu\u2019da b\u00f6lgede istikrar\u0131 art\u0131rmak \u015f\u00f6yle dursun Amerika\u2019n\u0131n etkisini art\u0131rmaya hizmet etmeyece\u011fini s\u00f6ylemeye gerek yoktur. Ancak Orta Do\u011fu\u2019nun Amerikan d\u0131\u015f politikas\u0131 i\u00e7in \u00f6nceki y\u00f6netimlerin d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc kadar \u00f6nemli olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131na karar vermesi halinde, bu durum Trump\u2019\u0131 ilgilendirmeyebilecektir. Asl\u0131nda Trump- ve destek\u00e7ilerinin \u00e7o\u011fu- Orta Do\u011fu\u2019nun, Amerika burada aktif bir bi\u00e7imde s\u00fcrece kar\u0131\u015fs\u0131n ya da kar\u0131\u015fmas\u0131n, berbat bir hal alaca\u011f\u0131na ve bu nedenle ABD\u2019nin b\u00f6lgenin uzun \u00f6m\u00fcrl\u00fc sorunlar\u0131na kar\u0131\u015fmaktan geri durmas\u0131n\u0131n bu bata\u011fa saplan\u0131p kalmas\u0131ndan daha iyi olaca\u011f\u0131na g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir bi\u00e7imde inanabilir.<\/p>\n Amerikan Politika Tercihleri ve B\u00f6lgesel Ger\u00e7eklikler<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n Trump Y\u00f6netimi\u2019nin Orta Do\u011fu\u2019ya (ve d\u00fcnyaya) y\u00f6nelik d\u0131\u015f politikas\u0131 Clinton Y\u00f6netimi\u2019ninkinden \u00e7ok daha dengesiz ve melodramatik olacakt\u0131r. Ancak Clinton\u2019\u0131n ba\u015fkan olmas\u0131 \u00e7ok daha olas\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcnd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc i\u00e7in, onun de\u011fi\u015fim yerine devam\u0131 vurgulayan politikas\u0131n\u0131n uygulanmas\u0131 kuvvetle muhtemeldir. Yine de Amerika kamuoyunun m\u00fcdahaleye kar\u015f\u0131 isteksizli\u011fi, Amerika\u2019n\u0131n Orta Do\u011fu petrol\u00fcne ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n azalmas\u0131, Rusya, \u00c7in ve Avrupa\u2019ya ili\u015fkin Amerikan endi\u015felerinin y\u00fckseli\u015fi ve Amerika\u2019n\u0131n Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki her \u015feyin pek \u00e7o\u011funa eri\u015femeyece\u011fi genel anlay\u0131\u015f\u0131 gibi fakt\u00f6rler Clinton y\u00f6netiminin bu b\u00f6lgede aktif bir politika s\u00fcrd\u00fcrme becerisini s\u0131n\u0131rlayabilir.<\/p>\n Daha \u00f6nceki Amerika ba\u015fkanlar\u0131nda g\u00f6zlendi\u011fi gibi, Clinton y\u00f6netiminin Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki olaylar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda tepkisel bir politika izlemeye son vermesi ve bunun yerine kendi y\u00f6netiminin b\u00f6lgeye y\u00f6nelik vizyonunu s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmeye odaklanan bir politika \u00fcretmesi olas\u0131d\u0131r. Asl\u0131nda Bush ve Obama y\u00f6netimlerinin birbirinden farkl\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fck vizyonlar\u0131n\u0131n her ikisinin birden Orta Do\u011fu ger\u00e7eklikleri kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda nas\u0131l k\u00f6steklendi\u011fini g\u00f6rerek, t\u00fcm hedeflerinden vazge\u00e7ebilir ve olaylara gidi\u015fata g\u00f6re tepki vermeye ve b\u00f6lgedeki sorunlar\u0131 \u00e7\u00f6zmekten ziyade sadece kontrol alt\u0131na almaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmaya odaklanabilir. D\u0131\u015fi\u015fleri Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 deneyimi onu, bunun Amerika\u2019n\u0131n yapabilece\u011fi en iyisi ve ayn\u0131 zamanda en fazlas\u0131 oldu\u011funa ikna edebilecektir.<\/p>\n Ancak b\u00f6lgeyle ilgilensinler ya da ilgilenmesinler, Orta Do\u011fu daha \u00f6nceki Amerika ba\u015fkanlar\u0131n\u0131 me\u015fgul etmenin yolunu bir \u015fekilde bulmu\u015ftur. Hal b\u00f6yleyken, m\u00fcstakbel Amerika ba\u015fkan\u0131 i\u00e7in de ayn\u0131 durumun s\u00f6z konusu olmas\u0131 \u00e7ok olas\u0131d\u0131r.<\/p>\n Referanslar<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n [1]<\/a> Se\u00e7imlere ili\u015fkin bilgi i\u00e7in bak\u0131n\u0131z: FiveThirtyEight 2016 Election Forecast,\u201d http:\/\/projects.fivethirtyeight.com\/2016-election-forecast\/<\/a> (Site birka\u00e7 saatte bir g\u00fcncellenmektedir)<\/p>\n [2]<\/a> Amerika\u2019n\u0131n Orta Do\u011fu\u2019ya y\u00f6nelik tutumu konusunda Shibley Telhami\u2019nin Brookings Institution taraf\u0131ndan yay\u0131nlanm\u0131\u015f \u00e7e\u015fitli \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131na bak\u0131labilir: (https:\/\/www.brookings.edu\/author\/shibley-telhami\/?type=research<\/a>)<\/p>\n [3]<\/a> Josh Rogin, \u201cWill Hillary Clinton deliver on her promise to ramp up U.S. involvement in Syria?\u201d Washington Post, 23 Ekim 2016, https:\/\/www.washingtonpost.com\/opinions\/global-opinions\/will-hillary-clintondeliver-on-her-promise-to-ramp-up-usinvolvement-in-syria\/2016\/10\/23\/1f2788e4-97bd-11e6-bc79-af1cd3d2984b_story.html?utm_term=.a551388cc8ca<\/a><\/p>\n [4]<\/a> \u201cFrom the Middle East and Asia to Europe and our own hemisphere, Hillary will strengthen the essential partnerships that are a unique source of America\u2019s strength.\u201d \u201cNational Security\u201d konulu sayfa: https:\/\/www.hillaryclinton.com\/issues\/national-security\/<\/a><\/p>\n [5]<\/a> Jack Goldstone, \u201cThe results of the US election will greatly influence relations with Russia,\u201d Russia Direct, 5 Ekim 2016, http:\/\/ www.russia-direct.org\/opinion\/results-uselection-will-greatly-influence-relationsrussia<\/a><\/p>\n [6]<\/a> \u201cDonald Trump on foreign policy,\u201d http:\/\/www.ontheissues.org\/2016\/Donald_Trump_Foreign_Policy.htm<\/a><\/p>\n [7]<\/a> \u201cDonald Trump, Putin\u2019s puppet,\u201d Washington Post, 10 Ekim 2016, https:\/\/www.washingtonpost.com\/opinions\/global-opinions\/donald-trump-putinspuppet\/2016\/10\/10\/451f099e-8f0e-11e6-a6a3-d50061aa9fae_story.html?utm_term=.939840c307fc<\/a><\/p>\n <\/p>\n <\/p>\n <\/p>\n<\/div> Donald Trump\u2019\u0131n Amerika Birle\u015fik Devletleri Ba\u015fkan\u0131 olarak se\u00e7ilmesi Amerika\u2019n\u0131n di\u011fer yerlerde oldu\u011fu kadar Orta Do\u011fu\u2019ya y\u00f6nelik d\u0131\u015f politikas\u0131nda da dramatik bir de\u011fi\u015fime neden olabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":43,"featured_media":10376,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","ngg_post_thumbnail":0},"categories":[361],"tags":[],"asf_pub_issue":[10319],"asf_pub_region":[10321],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10375"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/43"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=10375"}],"version-history":[{"count":7,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10375\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":29963,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10375\/revisions\/29963"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/10376"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=10375"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=10375"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=10375"},{"taxonomy":"asf_pub_issue","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/asf_pub_issue?post=10375"},{"taxonomy":"asf_pub_region","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/asf_pub_region?post=10375"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}