{"id":11310,"date":"2019-08-29T15:17:23","date_gmt":"2019-08-29T12:17:23","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/?p=11310"},"modified":"2020-08-31T17:23:23","modified_gmt":"2020-08-31T14:23:23","slug":"turkiye-abd-guvenli-bolge-anlasmasi-suriyede-cok-tarafli-bir-firsat","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/2019\/08\/29\/turkiye-abd-guvenli-bolge-anlasmasi-suriyede-cok-tarafli-bir-firsat\/","title":{"rendered":"T\u00fcrkiye-ABD G\u00fcvenli B\u00f6lge Anla\u015fmas\u0131: Suriye\u2019de \u00c7ok Tarafl\u0131 Bir F\u0131rsat"},"content":{"rendered":"

\u0130kili ili\u015fkilerde aylar s\u00fcren t\u0131kanman\u0131n ard\u0131ndan T\u00fcrkiye ve ABD, 2012\u2019den<\/a> bu yana T\u00fcrk yetkililerin g\u00fcndemindeki bir mesele olan Kuzey Suriye\u2019de g\u00fcvenli bir b\u00f6lgenin olu\u015fturulmas\u0131 konusunda nihayet anla\u015fmaya vard\u0131. Anla\u015fma, iki taraf\u0131n asker\u00ee delegelerinin 5-7 A\u011fustos tarihleri aras\u0131nda Ankara\u2019da pe\u015fi s\u0131ra bir araya geldikleri toplant\u0131lardan sonra yap\u0131ld\u0131. Toplant\u0131lar, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin g\u00fcney s\u0131n\u0131rlar\u0131na yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 devasa asker\u00ee y\u0131\u011f\u0131nak ve personel ikmalinin<\/a> ard\u0131ndan d\u00fczenlendi. T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin tek tarafl\u0131 bir asker\u00ee operasyon ba\u015flatma ihtimalinin, Amerikan taraf\u0131n\u0131 T\u00fcrkiye ile planlanan g\u00fcvenli b\u00f6lge konusunda bir mutabakata varma \u00e7abalar\u0131n\u0131 yo\u011funla\u015ft\u0131rmaya zorlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n

Bahse konu toplant\u0131lar\u0131n ard\u0131ndan Mill\u00ee Savunma Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 ile ABD Ankara B\u00fcy\u00fckel\u00e7ili\u011fi g\u00fcvenli b\u00f6lgenin olu\u015fturulmas\u0131na dair \u00fc\u00e7 ana noktay\u0131 i\u00e7eren ayn\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamay\u0131 yay\u0131mlad\u0131.  A\u00e7\u0131klamaya g\u00f6re<\/a>;<\/p>\n

-T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin g\u00fcvenlik endi\u015felerini giderecek ilk a\u015famada al\u0131nacak tedbirlerin bir an \u00f6nce uygulanmas\u0131,<\/p>\n

-Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede, G\u00fcvenli B\u00f6lge tesisinin ABD ile birlikte koordine ve y\u00f6netimi i\u00e7in T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de M\u00fc\u015fterek Harek\u00e2t Merkezinin en k\u0131sa zamanda kurulmas\u0131,<\/p>\n

-M\u00fcteakiben, G\u00fcvenli B\u00f6lgenin bir bar\u0131\u015f koridoru olmas\u0131 ve yerinden edilmi\u015f Suriyeli karde\u015flerimizin \u00fclkelerine d\u00f6nmeleri i\u00e7in her t\u00fcrl\u00fc ilave tedbirin al\u0131nmas\u0131 konular\u0131nda mutab\u0131k kal\u0131nm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r.<\/p>\n

Yukar\u0131daki maddelerde kullan\u0131lan dilin olduk\u00e7a mu\u011flak oldu\u011fu ve her iki taraf i\u00e7in de ayr\u0131nt\u0131l\u0131 bir yol haritas\u0131na ihtiya\u00e7 duyuldu\u011fu a\u015fik\u00e2rd\u0131r. Dahas\u0131 T\u00fcrkiye ve ABD\u2019nin g\u00fcvenli b\u00f6lge konusundaki perspektiflerinin b\u00fcy\u00fck oranda<\/a> \u00f6rt\u00fc\u015fmedi\u011fi de uzun s\u00fcredir biliniyor. T\u00fcrkiye, PYD\/YPG\/SDG\u2019nin y\u00f6netim ve g\u00fcvenlik mekanizmalar\u0131n\u0131 kademeli olarak zay\u0131flatabilece\u011fi bir g\u00fcvenli b\u00f6lge olu\u015fturmak istiyor. Ancak Amerikan perspektifinden bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda g\u00fcvenli b\u00f6lge PYD\/SDG ve mekanizmalar\u0131n\u0131n korunaca\u011f\u0131 bir \u2018tampon b\u00f6lge\u2019ye kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k geliyor.<\/p>\n

Bununla birlikte T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin g\u00fcvenli b\u00f6lgenin kurulmas\u0131 konusunda ABD\u2019nin \u00f6nceki tekliflerini reddetmesinin<\/a> ard\u0131ndan, ABD baz\u0131 tavizler vermi\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Asl\u0131nda \u201cbar\u0131\u015f koridoru\u201d ifadesi ABD taraf\u0131yla yap\u0131lan toplant\u0131lardan hemen \u00f6nce Mill\u00ee G\u00fcvenlik Kurulu taraf\u0131ndan yap\u0131lan a\u00e7\u0131klamada<\/a> kullan\u0131lm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Bunun yan\u0131nda iki taraf g\u00fcvenli b\u00f6lge hakk\u0131nda daha fazla ayr\u0131nt\u0131 verme konusunda \u015fimdiye kadar \u00e7ekingen davrand\u0131. Yine de planlanan b\u00f6lgeyle ilgili medya kurulu\u015flar\u0131nda baz\u0131 harita ve haberler dola\u015f\u0131ma girdi. \u00c7e\u015fitli kaynaklara dayand\u0131r\u0131lan bir habere g\u00f6re ABD T\u00fcrkiye\u2019ye<\/a> g\u00fcvenli b\u00f6lgenin \u00fc\u00e7 hat \u00fczerinde \u00fc\u00e7 a\u015famada<\/a> kurulmas\u0131 teklifinde bulundu.<\/p>\n

-Birinci a\u015famada T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin g\u00fcney s\u0131n\u0131r\u0131 boyunca 5 kilometre i\u00e7eriye uzanan bir b\u00f6lge kurulacak ve bu b\u00f6lge YPG\/SDG unsurlar\u0131n\u0131 bar\u0131nd\u0131rmayacak. T\u00fcrkiye ve ABD bu b\u00f6lgede ortak devriyeler d\u00fczenlemeyi de planl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

-\u0130kinci a\u015famada g\u00fcvenli hat baz\u0131 k\u0131s\u0131mlarda 9 kilometreye kadar geni\u015fletilecek. Ayr\u0131ca YPG\/SDG a\u011f\u0131r silahlar\u0131n\u0131 b\u00f6lgeden \u00e7ekecek ve ortak devriyeler ABD ile YPG\/SDG taraf\u0131ndan d\u00fczenlenecek.<\/p>\n

-\u00dc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc a\u015fama ise 14 kilometre derinli\u011fe sahip bir hatt\u0131n kurulmas\u0131 olacak. T\u00fcrkiye bu b\u00f6lgeye m\u00fcdahale etmeyecek. ABD ve YPG \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc b\u00f6lgede rol alacak.<\/p>\n

Yukar\u0131da bahsedilen teknik meselelere ek olarak s\u00f6z konusu plan, yerel asker\u00ee meclislerin belirlenen \u00fc\u00e7 b\u00f6lgenin korunmas\u0131na nezaret etmesini \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Ankara\u2019n\u0131n b\u00f6yle bir anla\u015fmay\u0131 kabul etmeye yana\u015f\u0131p yana\u015fmayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 bilmesek de olas\u0131 g\u00fcvenli b\u00f6lgenin Suriye\u2019de \u00e7ok tarafl\u0131 bir f\u0131rsat sundu\u011funu belirtebiliriz. T\u00fcrkiye, ABD ve SDG a\u00e7\u0131klaman\u0131n yay\u0131mlanmas\u0131ndan sonra olumlu yorumlar yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan t\u00fcm taraflar\u0131n m\u00fczakerelerin sonu\u00e7lar\u0131ndan memnun kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00f6ylenebilir.<\/p>\n

Anla\u015fma Neler Ba\u015farabilir?<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

Birincisi, hi\u00e7bir konunun tek ba\u015f\u0131na ABD\u2019nin PKK\u2019n\u0131n Suriye uzant\u0131s\u0131 YPG\u2019yi son be\u015f y\u0131lda desteklemesi kadar T\u00fcrk-ABD ikili ili\u015fkilerini zehirlemedi\u011fi bir s\u0131r de\u011fil. \u0130ki NATO m\u00fcttefiki aras\u0131ndaki ili\u015fkiler T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin Rus yap\u0131m\u0131 S-400 f\u00fcze sistemini alma karar\u0131yla yak\u0131n zamanda daha da bozuldu. F\u00fcze sisteminin ilk paketinin T\u00fcrkiye\u2019ye teslim edilmesiyle baz\u0131 yorumcular \u00fclkenin Suriye sava\u015f\u0131n\u0131n sahadaki ger\u00e7ekliklerinden kaynaklanan nedenlerle Rusya ve \u0130ran ile kurdu\u011fu \u201czorunlu yak\u0131nl\u0131k\u201d dolay\u0131s\u0131yla T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin Bat\u0131 ittifak\u0131 ve NATO\u2019dan \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131lma<\/a>s\u0131n\u0131 bile savundu. Bat\u0131l\u0131 \u00e7evreler, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin Rusya ve \u0130ran ile olan \u201czoraki yak\u0131nl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131\u201d farkl\u0131 yorumluyor ve \u00fclkenin NATO ekseninden kayd\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 savunuyor.<\/p>\n

B\u00f6ylesi gergin bir atmosferde ABD, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin g\u00fcvenlik kayg\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 dikkate alan bir anla\u015fmay\u0131 uygulayarak NATO m\u00fcttefikiyle ba\u011flar\u0131n\u0131 belli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde onarma \u015fans\u0131na sahip. Ankara uzun s\u00fcredir ABD\u2019nin g\u00fcvenli b\u00f6lge ve YPG ile ili\u015fkiler konusunda kendisini oyalad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyor. \u00d6zellikle 2018\u2019de tasla\u011f\u0131 olu\u015fturulan ama \u015fimdiye kadar uygulanmayan Menbi\u00e7 yol haritas\u0131, T\u00fcrk yetkilileri ABD\u2019nin Suriye\u2019deki niyetleri konusunda daha temkinli olmaya sevk etti.<\/p>\n

Bunun sonucunda T\u00fcrkiye \u015fimdiye kadar m\u00fczakere masas\u0131nda elde edemediklerini almak i\u00e7in son zamanlarda yo\u011fun bir asker\u00ee retori\u011fe ba\u015fvurdu. Mevcut anla\u015fma T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin g\u00fcvenlik ihtiya\u00e7lar\u0131 konusunda genel bir uzla\u015f\u0131n\u0131n<\/a> oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor fakat ayr\u0131nt\u0131lar\u0131n hen\u00fcz tart\u0131\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131na ihtiya\u00e7 var. M\u00fczakereleri tekrar oyalamak ikili ili\u015fkiler i\u00e7in hi\u00e7 \u015f\u00fcphesiz y\u0131k\u0131c\u0131 olacakt\u0131r. Hatta T\u00fcrkiye\u2019yi tek tarafl\u0131 bir asker\u00ee hamle yapmaya daha da yakla\u015ft\u0131rabilir bu durum. Bu y\u00fczden sorunu \u00e7\u00f6zmeye y\u00f6nelik sahici bir niyet gerekiyor ve ABD bu \u015fansa sahip. Bu ba\u011flamda \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmaya ba\u015flayan<\/a> m\u00fc\u015fterek harek\u00e2t merkezi hayati \u00f6nem ta\u015f\u0131yor. \u00d6ng\u00f6r\u00fclen g\u00fcvenli b\u00f6lgenin mahiyet ve y\u00f6netimi \u00fczerindeki anla\u015fmazl\u0131klara ra\u011fmen merkez, Kuzeydo\u011fu Suriye konusundaki g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f ayr\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 y\u00f6netmek i\u00e7in iki tarafa da bir f\u0131rsat sunabilir.<\/p>\n

\u0130kincisi, anla\u015fma mevcut \u015fartlar alt\u0131nda T\u00fcrkiye i\u00e7in olumlu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin g\u00fcvenlik kayg\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n genel olarak anla\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131 T\u00fcrkiye\u2019yi Kuzey Suriye\u2019ye operasyon planlar\u0131n\u0131 en az\u0131ndan \u015fimdilik durdurmaya sevk edecektir. ABD\u2019nin anla\u015fmaya tepkisi k\u0131sa ve orta vadede her iki taraf i\u00e7in belirleyici bir fakt\u00f6r olacakt\u0131r. T\u00fcrkiye bir ekonomik durgunlukla m\u00fccadele ediyor ve asker\u00ee bir operasyon \u00fclkeyi daha da zor duruma sokabilir. Dahas\u0131 iki taraf\u0131n yay\u0131mlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamada m\u00fclteciler de \u00f6nemli bir odak noktas\u0131. T\u00fcrkiye \u00fclkede son aylarda t\u0131rmanan toplumsal gerilimi azaltmaya y\u00f6nelik olarak \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclen g\u00fcvenli b\u00f6lgeyi Suriyeli m\u00fcltecilerin d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fc<\/a> i\u00e7in kullanmay\u0131 ama\u00e7l\u0131yor. Bunun yan\u0131nda sava\u015f sadece ekonomik kay\u0131plarla de\u011fil ayn\u0131 zamanda can kay\u0131plar\u0131yla da ilgili. T\u00fcrkiye, anla\u015fma ile beraber muhtemel asker\u00ee zayiat\u0131n\u0131 \u015fimdilik engellemi\u015f bulunuyor. Fakat bu, Suriye\u2019ye \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc bir asker\u00ee operasyon ihtimalinin bitti\u011fi anlam\u0131na gelmiyor. ABD, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin g\u00fcvenlik kayg\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 dikkate alacak makul bir anla\u015fmay\u0131 uygulamazsa Ankara asker\u00ee se\u00e7ene\u011fi hayata ge\u00e7irebilir.<\/p>\n

\u00dc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fcs\u00fc, anla\u015fmayla birlikte SDG kanl\u0131 bir asker\u00ee \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmadan ka\u00e7\u0131nm\u0131\u015f oldu. Dahas\u0131 kurulmas\u0131 planlanan yerel asker\u00ee meclisler, \u00f6rg\u00fcte kendini d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcrme f\u0131rsat\u0131 sunabilir. SDG belkemi\u011fini PKK\u2019n\u0131n Suriye kolu YPG olu\u015fturdu\u011fu i\u00e7in bug\u00fcne kadar s\u00fcrekli olarak T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin tehditleri alt\u0131nda hareket etti. Mevzubahis yerel asker\u00ee meclisler<\/a> YPG\/SDG i\u00e7in PKK\u2019ya ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan kurtulma y\u00f6n\u00fcnde hayati bir \u015fans sunabilir. Yerel asker\u00ee meclislere \u201cger\u00e7ek bir g\u00fc\u00e7\u201d devri T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin g\u00fcvenlik kayg\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 bir nebze yat\u0131\u015ft\u0131rabilir.<\/p>\n

Ger\u00e7ek bir g\u00fc\u00e7 devri YPG unsurlar\u0131n\u0131n s\u00f6z konusu meclislerde yer almamas\u0131 gerekti\u011fi anlam\u0131na geliyor. Asl\u0131na bak\u0131l\u0131rsa \u00f6rg\u00fct, yerelle\u015fme ihtiyac\u0131n\u0131n fark\u0131nda. \u00d6rg\u00fct, Arap n\u00fcfusun yo\u011fun olarak ya\u015fad\u0131\u011f\u0131 b\u00f6lgeleri ele ge\u00e7irmesiyle birlikte, halk deste\u011fini almak i\u00e7in yerelle\u015fme projesini<\/a> zaten ba\u015flatm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Yerel asker\u00ee meclislere g\u00fc\u00e7 devri hem SDG hem de \u00f6rg\u00fct\u00fcn kontrol\u00fc alt\u0131nda ya\u015fayan halk i\u00e7in faydal\u0131 olabilir. Aksi senaryoda YPG\/SDG T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de binlerce can kayb\u0131na neden olan onlarca y\u0131ll\u0131k bir isyan\u0131 ba\u015flatan PKK\u2019n\u0131n Suriye uzant\u0131s\u0131 olarak g\u00f6r\u00fclmeye devam edecektir. YPG, PKK ile ba\u011flar\u0131n\u0131 kesmezse Ankara asker\u00ee se\u00e7ene\u011fini her zaman masada tutacakt\u0131r \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc Ankara, \u00f6rg\u00fct\u00fc kendi mill\u00ee g\u00fcvenlik ve toprak b\u00fct\u00fcnl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcne y\u00f6nelik varolu\u015fsal bir tehdit olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla yerelle\u015fme T\u00fcrkiye, SDG ve \u00f6rg\u00fct\u00fcn kontrol\u00fc alt\u0131nda ya\u015fayan n\u00fcfus i\u00e7in faydal\u0131 olacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n

Ezc\u00fcmle, \u015fimdilik m\u00fczakereler T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin s\u0131n\u0131r g\u00fcvenli\u011fi konusunda genel bir uzla\u015f\u0131 sa\u011flam\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Yine de anla\u015fman\u0131n mu\u011flakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00fcr\u00fcyor ve ayr\u0131nt\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n geli\u015ftirilmesi i\u00e7in biraz zamana ihtiya\u00e7 olacak.<\/p>\n<\/div>

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\u0130kili ili\u015fkilerde aylar s\u00fcren t\u0131kanman\u0131n ard\u0131ndan T\u00fcrkiye ve ABD, 2012\u2019den bu yana T\u00fcrk yetkililerin g\u00fcndemindeki bir mesele olan Kuzey Suriye\u2019de g\u00fcvenli bir b\u00f6lgenin olu\u015fturulmas\u0131 konusunda nihayet<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":57,"featured_media":11296,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","ngg_post_thumbnail":0},"categories":[376],"tags":[9815],"asf_pub_issue":[10313],"asf_pub_region":[10321],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11310"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/57"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=11310"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11310\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":25125,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11310\/revisions\/25125"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/11296"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=11310"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=11310"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=11310"},{"taxonomy":"asf_pub_issue","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/asf_pub_issue?post=11310"},{"taxonomy":"asf_pub_region","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/asf_pub_region?post=11310"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}