{"id":12264,"date":"2019-11-18T16:44:31","date_gmt":"2019-11-18T13:44:31","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/?p=12264"},"modified":"2020-08-11T12:16:46","modified_gmt":"2020-08-11T09:16:46","slug":"2019un-sonu-masrik-ve-kuresel-egilimler","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/2019\/11\/18\/2019un-sonu-masrik-ve-kuresel-egilimler\/","title":{"rendered":"2019\u2019un Sonu: Ma\u015fr\u0131k ve K\u00fcresel E\u011filimler"},"content":{"rendered":"

(Bu yaz\u0131, El Cezire Ara\u015ft\u0131rmalar Merkezi taraf\u0131ndan 8 Ekim 2019\u2019da yay\u0131mlanan makalenin g\u00fcncellenmi\u015f versiyonudur. Yaz\u0131n\u0131n \u0130ngilizce orijinal versiyonu Al Sharq Forum\u2019un web sayfas\u0131nda mevcuttur.)<\/em><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

Arap devrimlerinin ba\u015flamas\u0131ndan sonraki dokuz y\u0131l i\u00e7erisinde i\u00e7 gerilimler ve istikrars\u0131zl\u0131k h\u00e2l\u00e2 Arap Ma\u015fr\u0131k b\u00f6lgesini \u015fekillendirip b\u00f6lgesel \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131 derinle\u015ftiriyor. Suudi Arabistan, \u0130ran ve Birle\u015fik Arap Emirlikleri (BAE) gibi kar\u015f\u0131 devrimci \u00fclkelerin 2013\u2019ten bu yana izledi\u011fi Arap Bahar\u0131 \u00f6ncesi d\u00fczeni yeniden tesis etme giri\u015fimleri ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131z oldu.<\/p>\n

Ayn\u0131 zamanda e\u015fi benzeri g\u00f6r\u00fclmemi\u015f bir \u015fekilde a\u00e7\u0131k yahut gizli uluslararas\u0131 destek ve b\u00f6lgesel \u2018normalle\u015fmeye\u2019 ra\u011fmen Yahudi \u0130srail devleti sorunlu bir stratejik konum ve e\u015fit derecede karars\u0131z bir i\u00e7 siyasi durumla kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131yad\u0131r.<\/p>\n

Ba\u015fkan Trump\u2019\u0131n Amerikan ba\u015fkanl\u0131k se\u00e7imleri s\u0131ras\u0131nda verdi\u011fi Ortado\u011fu ve di\u011fer \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma b\u00f6lgelerinden \u00e7ekilme vaatleri yerine getirilmedi ve ABD b\u00f6lgede kilit bir akt\u00f6r olmaya devam ediyor. Ayn\u0131 zamanda Rusya, \u00f6zellikle Suriye krizinin ba\u015fat akt\u00f6rlerinden biri olmaya ba\u015flad\u0131ktan sonra b\u00f6lgedeki n\u00fcfuz alan\u0131n\u0131 geni\u015fletmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

Uluslararas\u0131 d\u00fczeyde hem ABD ile hem de Rusya ve \u00c7in aras\u0131ndaki rekabet k\u0131z\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Yine de ister iktisadi, stratejik, isterse Suriye, \u0130ran ve Venezuela\u2019daki \u015fiddetli k\u00f6t\u00fcl\u00fck yuvalar\u0131 olsun bu uluslararas\u0131 \u00e7alkant\u0131lar, b\u00fcy\u00fck g\u00fc\u00e7lerin \u00f6zellikle de ABD ve Rusya\u2019n\u0131n Ma\u015fr\u0131k\u2019taki b\u00f6lgesel g\u00fc\u00e7lerin y\u00fckseli\u015fine g\u00f6z yumdu\u011fu anlam\u0131na gelmiyor.<\/p>\n

Uluslararas\u0131 Arena: S\u00fcrekli Bir N\u00fcfuz M\u00fccadelesi<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

Trump y\u00f6netiminin stratejisi hem ekonomik hem de askeri alanda ABD\u2019nin g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc yeniden geli\u015ftirip \u00fcst\u00fcnl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc kurmay\u0131 ama\u00e7layan bir \u2018ulusun yeniden g\u00fc\u00e7lendirilmesi\u2019 stratejisidir. Ger\u00e7ekte Trump y\u00f6netimi \u0130kinci D\u00fcnya Sava\u015f\u0131\u2019ndan beri g\u00f6r\u00fclmemi\u015f bir kapsamda askeri harcama yapma politikas\u0131 benimsedi. Obama\u2019n\u0131n k\u00fcresel politikalar\u0131 da \u00f6z\u00fcnde Bush y\u00f6netiminin ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131z Ortado\u011fu sava\u015flar\u0131 s\u0131ras\u0131ndaki Amerikan kay\u0131plar\u0131n\u0131 toparlama giri\u015fimi oldu\u011fu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde Trump ile seleflerinin d\u0131\u015f politikalar\u0131 aras\u0131nda somut bir yak\u0131nl\u0131k oldu\u011fu g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcr.<\/p>\n

Obama Pasifik Havzas\u0131\u2019ndaki stratejik dengeyi y\u00f6netiminin \u00f6nceli\u011fi h\u00e2line getirmi\u015f ve kademeli olarak Ortado\u011fu\u2019daki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma b\u00f6lgelerinden \u00e7ekilmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015fm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Ancak I\u015e\u0130D\u2019in Suriye ve Irak\u2019taki ani geni\u015flemesi ABD\u2019yi bir kez daha askeri operasyon d\u00fczenlemeye zorlad\u0131. \u00d6te yandan Trump \u015fimdi \u00c7in ile ticaret sava\u015f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcp \u00c7in\u2019in ekonomik y\u00fckseli\u015fini yava\u015flatmay\u0131 ama\u00e7larken Obama\u2019n\u0131n Hindistan\u2019\u0131 ABD\u2019nin \u00c7in\u2019i s\u0131n\u0131rlama stratejisine \u00e7ekme giri\u015fimlerini de devam ettirdi. Fakat ticaret sava\u015f\u0131 politikas\u0131 sadece ABD-\u00c7in ili\u015fkilerini de\u011fil, ayn\u0131 zamanda ABD\u2019nin Kanada, Avrupa Birli\u011fi (AB) ve Meksika dahil geleneksel m\u00fcttefikleri ile olan ili\u015fkilerini de etkiledi.<\/p>\n

Dahas\u0131 Trump y\u00f6netiminin Britanya ile onun eski kolonileri olan Avustralya, Kanada, Yeni Zelanda ve ABD\u2019nin dahil oldu\u011fu bir ekonomik blokun kurulmas\u0131na y\u00f6nelik bir ad\u0131m olarak Brexit\u2019i destekledi\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Bu blok on y\u0131llard\u0131r Be\u015f G\u00f6z (Five Eyes) olarak bilinen stratejik istihbarat ittifak\u0131na dahildi ve bu hedef ger\u00e7ekle\u015firse AB ve Rusya\u2019n\u0131n toplam\u0131 dahil t\u00fcm Avrupa k\u0131tas\u0131n\u0131n toplam \u00fcretimini a\u015fan bir gayrisafi milli has\u0131la ile d\u00fcnyan\u0131n en b\u00fcy\u00fck ekonomisine sahip olacak.<\/p>\n

Genel olarak Trump y\u00f6netiminin d\u0131\u015f politikas\u0131 ulusal g\u00fc\u00e7lenme stratejisinin hedefleriyle uyum i\u00e7indedir. Ancak bu politikalar ABD\u2019nin g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc yeniden ikame edip kay\u0131plardan ka\u00e7\u0131nma hedeflerinden sapt\u0131\u011f\u0131nda d\u00fczen bozuluyor. \u00d6rne\u011fin Trump y\u00f6netimi \u0130ran n\u00fckleer anla\u015fmas\u0131ndan \u00e7ekilip \u0130ran\u2019a y\u0131k\u0131c\u0131 yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar uygulad\u0131 ama Trump \u0130ran ile sava\u015fmaktan ka\u00e7\u0131nma konusunda kararl\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Y\u00f6netimi ayr\u0131ca Venezuela\u2019daki rejimi devirmeyi ama\u00e7lad\u0131 ama askeri se\u00e7ene\u011fi devre d\u0131\u015f\u0131 b\u0131rakt\u0131. Bu y\u00fczden bu g\u00f6rece daha k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck olan iki devlete k\u0131yasla ABD\u2019nin g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc konumuna ra\u011fmen Trump y\u00f6netimi iki durumda da hedeflerine ula\u015fmay\u0131 ba\u015faramam\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n

Baz\u0131 durumlarda Trump\u2019\u0131n politikalar\u0131 Aral\u0131k 2018\u2019de verdi\u011fi Suriye\u2019den \u00e7ekilme karar\u0131nda oldu\u011fu gibi ABD devlet kurumlar\u0131yla \u00e7at\u0131\u015ft\u0131 ve Trump belirtti\u011fi hedeflerinden vazge\u00e7mek zorunda b\u0131rak\u0131ld\u0131. Bu durum y\u00f6netiminin Afganistan\u2019da Taliban ile bir anla\u015fmaya varma \u00e7abalar\u0131 ve Rusya ile ili\u015fkileri iyile\u015ftirme y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki ilk giri\u015fimlerinde de ya\u015fand\u0131.<\/p>\n

Trump\u2019\u0131n ki\u015fisel d\u00fczeydeki esas sorunu ba\u015fkan\u0131n yetki s\u0131n\u0131rlar\u0131n\u0131 bilmeyi\u015fi ve konumu veya Amerikan devlet kurumlar\u0131ndaki rol\u00fcn\u00fcn gereklerine uygun davranamamas\u0131d\u0131r. Bu etik ve ahlaki kusurlar g\u00f6revi k\u00f6t\u00fcye kullanma su\u00e7lamas\u0131 (impeachment) ile kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya kalma ihtimalini do\u011furdu ve belki de \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki 2020 ba\u015fkanl\u0131k se\u00e7imlerinde ikinci kez se\u00e7ilemeyecek.<\/p>\n

K\u00fcresel d\u00fczeyde kar\u015f\u0131la\u015fman\u0131n uluslararas\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fck g\u00fc\u00e7ler aras\u0131ndaki ili\u015fkilerin temel \u00f6zelli\u011fi h\u00e2line geldi\u011fi ve hemen hi\u00e7birinin kesin bir zafere ula\u015famad\u0131\u011f\u0131 veya \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki birka\u00e7 y\u0131lda kazanamayaca\u011f\u0131 s\u00f6ylenebilir. ABD ile \u00c7in aras\u0131ndaki ticaret sava\u015f\u0131 muhtemelen ABD lehine olacak bir anla\u015fmayla sona erecek. Ayr\u0131ca \u00c7in\u2019in \u00c7in Denizlerindeki nakliyat rotalar\u0131 \u00fczerindeki m\u00fcnhas\u0131r kontrol\u00fcn\u00fc nas\u0131l icra edece\u011fini kestirmek de zor. Ayn\u0131 zamanda ABD\u2019nin \u00e7abalar\u0131na ra\u011fmen \u00c7in, \u0130pek Yollar\u0131 projesi \u00fczerinden bir dizi ortakl\u0131kla ticari ve ekonomik n\u00fcfuzunu yava\u015f ve kararl\u0131 ad\u0131mlarla geni\u015fletiyor.<\/p>\n

ABD kendi hesab\u0131na hen\u00fcz Venezuela rejimini devirebilmi\u015f de\u011fil ve Rusya\u2019n\u0131n Kiev\u2019deki rejimi de\u011fi\u015ftirme \u00e7abalar\u0131n\u0131 engellemi\u015f olsa da Ukrayna\u2019daki durumu 2014 (Rus m\u00fcdahalesi) \u00f6ncesi \u015fartlar\u0131na d\u00f6nd\u00fcrmeyi ba\u015faramad\u0131. Ayr\u0131ca Trump y\u00f6netimi Kuzey Kore\u2019nin n\u00fckleer g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc elinden alamadan Kore Yar\u0131madas\u0131\u2019nda bir ate\u015fkes ile yetinmi\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Hi\u00e7 ku\u015fkusuz Rusya Suriye\u2019deki varl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendirip K\u0131r\u0131m Yar\u0131madas\u0131\u2019na el koymay\u0131 ba\u015fard\u0131 ama Ukrayna ve G\u00fcrcistan\u2019\u0131n bat\u0131 yanl\u0131s\u0131 y\u00f6nelimlerini de\u011fi\u015ftiremedi.<\/p>\n

Trump y\u00f6netiminin \u0130ran n\u00fckleer anla\u015fmas\u0131ndan vazge\u00e7mesi belki de ABD\u2019nin Ortado\u011fu\u2019daki en etkili kararlar\u0131ndan biri. Bu karar\u0131 \u0130ran\u2019a kar\u015f\u0131 bir dizi a\u011f\u0131r cezaland\u0131r\u0131c\u0131 tedbir izledi. Rusya ve \u00c7in\u2019in ABD yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131na uymay\u0131 reddetmesi ve Avrupa\u2019n\u0131n n\u00fckleer anla\u015fmas\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131 kal\u0131rken yapt\u0131r\u0131mlara ra\u011fmen \u0130ran ile ticareti kolayla\u015ft\u0131rma giri\u015fimlerine kar\u015f\u0131n ABD\u2019nin \u0130ran ile ticaret yapan \u00fclkelere kar\u015f\u0131 ikincil yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar uygulama karar\u0131 uluslararas\u0131 ticaretteki b\u00fcy\u00fck stat\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fc ve Rusya, \u00c7in ve Avrupa\u2019n\u0131n bu stat\u00fcye meydan okuyamad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ortaya \u00e7\u0131kard\u0131.<\/p>\n

Bu ba\u011flamda b\u00f6lgesel g\u00fc\u00e7ler hen\u00fcz Ma\u015fr\u0131k\u2019\u0131n kaderini tayin edip krizlerini \u00e7\u00f6zmede belirleyici bir rol oynayamad\u0131. Bunun birinci nedeni b\u00f6lgesel g\u00fc\u00e7lerin y\u00fckseli\u015finin bu b\u00f6lgedeki kazan\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 korumak i\u00e7in u\u011fra\u015f veren Moskova ile Washington\u2019da (ve ayr\u0131ca Londra ve Paris gibi baz\u0131 Avrupa ba\u015fkentlerinde) b\u00fcy\u00fcyen bir kayg\u0131 kayna\u011f\u0131 olmas\u0131d\u0131r. \u0130kincisi ise T\u00fcrkiye, \u0130ran, Suudi Arabistan ve M\u0131s\u0131r gibi Ma\u015fr\u0131k\u2019taki b\u00f6lgesel g\u00fc\u00e7lerin kendileri aras\u0131ndaki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131n yo\u011funla\u015fmas\u0131 ve b\u00f6lgesel \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma alanlar\u0131na y\u00f6nelik duru\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131d\u0131r.<\/p>\n

B\u00f6lgesel Arena: Yitik Denge<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

B\u00f6lgesel d\u00fczenin \u00e7\u00f6k\u00fc\u015f\u00fc 2011 Arap Devrimlerinin en \u00f6nemli sonu\u00e7lar\u0131ndan biriydi. Suudi Arabistan\u2019\u0131n 2015\u2019te Ortado\u011fu\u2019da g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir eksen kurma \u00e7abas\u0131 belki de b\u00f6lgedeki en h\u0131rsl\u0131 giri\u015fimdi. Fakat art\u0131k Suudi projesinin olduk\u00e7a k\u00f6t\u00fc bir bi\u00e7imde akamete u\u011frad\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00f6ylenebilir.<\/p>\n

Ankara ile Riyad aras\u0131nda, \u00f6zellikle Kral Selman d\u00f6neminin ilk iki y\u0131l\u0131ndaki dostane ili\u015fkilere ra\u011fmen Ankara, \u0130ran\u2019a kar\u015f\u0131 kurulan ittifaka kat\u0131lmay\u0131 reddederken Riyad da M\u0131s\u0131r rejimine deste\u011fini bitirmeye yana\u015fmad\u0131. Cemal Ka\u015f\u0131k\u00e7\u0131\u2019n\u0131n \u0130stanbul\u2019da suikasta kurban gitmesinden beri T\u00fcrk-Suudi ili\u015fkileri gerilerek adeta ilan edilmemi\u015f bir sava\u015fa yak\u0131n bir h\u00e2le evrildi.<\/p>\n

Sisi rejiminin ekonomik zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve siyasi me\u015fruiyetinin k\u0131r\u0131lganl\u0131\u011f\u0131 nedeniyle Kahire art\u0131k ba\u015fat bir b\u00f6lgesel akt\u00f6r de\u011fil. Riyad, M\u0131s\u0131r\u2019\u0131 ne Yemen\u2019de ne de \u0130ran\u2019a kar\u015f\u0131 m\u00fccadelede kendi s\u0131n\u0131rlar\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6tesinde aktif bir rol oynamaya y\u00f6neltemedi. Suudi Arabistan, Katar\u2019\u0131 h\u00e2kimiyet alt\u0131na almay\u0131 veya iradesini teslim almay\u0131 da ba\u015faramad\u0131. Suudi \u00e7abalar\u0131 sadece BAE ile s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir ittifakla sonu\u00e7land\u0131 ki bunun da Yemen\u2019deki BAE-Suudi uyu\u015fmazl\u0131klar\u0131 ve BAE\u2019nin \u0130ran ile iyi ge\u00e7inme yoluna girmesinden sonra uzun s\u00fcrmeyece\u011fi bekleniyor.<\/p>\n

Suudilerin g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir b\u00f6lgesel eksen olu\u015fturma giri\u015fiminin ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131zl\u0131\u011f\u0131, b\u00f6lgede ya\u015fanan kar\u0131\u015f\u0131kl\u0131klar \u00fczerindeki anla\u015fmazl\u0131klar ve \u0130srail\u2019in Ma\u015fr\u0131k\u2019taki \u00fclkeler aras\u0131ndaki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n k\u0131z\u0131\u015fmas\u0131ndaki rol\u00fc ba\u015fl\u0131ca b\u00f6lge devletleri aras\u0131ndaki gerilimi artt\u0131rarak onlar\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fck g\u00fc\u00e7lerin bask\u0131lar\u0131na a\u00e7\u0131k h\u00e2le getirdi.<\/p>\n

Suudi Arabistan:<\/strong> H\u00e2lihaz\u0131rda i\u00e7eride, b\u00f6lgede ve uluslararas\u0131 sahada modern tarihinin en zor d\u00f6nemlerinden ge\u00e7iyor. Veliaht prensin siyaset, ekonomi ve din sahas\u0131 \u00fczerinde do\u011frudan ve merkezi kontrol kurma m\u00fccadelesi Suudi toplumunda keskin b\u00f6l\u00fcnmelere ve binlerce Suudi entelekt\u00fcel, aktivist ve t\u00fcccar\u0131n s\u00fcrg\u00fcn\u00fcne neden olarak rejime kar\u015f\u0131 yayg\u0131n bir muhalefete yol a\u00e7t\u0131. Bug\u00fcn Suudi Arabistan\u2019\u0131n b\u00f6lgede g\u00fcvenebilece\u011fi bir m\u00fcttefiki kalmam\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Bunun yan\u0131nda Yemen\u2019de d\u00f6rt y\u0131ldan fazla s\u00fcren sava\u015fta Suudi Arabistan asgari hedeflerine bile ula\u015famad\u0131 \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc sava\u015f benzeri g\u00f6r\u00fclmemi\u015f bir mali y\u00fcke ve Suudi g\u00fcvenli\u011fine do\u011frudan bir tehdide d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc.<\/p>\n

Yemen sava\u015f\u0131 Suudilerin \u0130ran ile kar\u015f\u0131la\u015fmas\u0131 ba\u011flam\u0131na yerle\u015ftirilirse \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n \u00f6zellikle de Suudi Arabistan\u2019a kar\u015f\u0131 g\u00fcneyden ve kuzeyden stratejik olarak blokaj uygulamada ba\u015far\u0131l\u0131 olmas\u0131ndan sonra daha avantajl\u0131 konumda oldu\u011fu da a\u00e7\u0131kt\u0131r.<\/p>\n

Suudi Arabistan i\u00e7in en b\u00fcy\u00fck sorun ABD taraf\u0131ndan, sadece finansal de\u011fil ayn\u0131 zamanda Suudi Arabistan\u2019\u0131n Arap ve \u0130slam d\u00fcnyas\u0131ndaki ahlaki konumunu zedelemekle sonu\u00e7lanabilecek \u201cAsr\u0131n Anla\u015fmas\u0131\u201d gibi ABD politikalar\u0131n\u0131 desteklemeye zorlanmak \u015feklindeki bitmeyen \u015fantajlara maruz kalmas\u0131d\u0131r.<\/p>\n

T\u00fcrkiye:<\/strong> \u0130ktidar partisi AKP, son belediye se\u00e7imlerinde se\u00e7men taban\u0131nda kayda de\u011fer bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe tan\u0131k oldu. Parti i\u00e7indeki anla\u015fmazl\u0131klar dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda muhafazak\u00e2r merkez sa\u011f kamp\u0131ndan iki siyasi parti \u00e7\u0131kacak gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor ki bu da \u00fclkenin siyaset haritas\u0131n\u0131n yeniden \u00e7izilmesine yol a\u00e7abilir. \u00d6te yandan T\u00fcrk ekonomisi 2018 yaz\u0131nda \u00fclkeyi vuran finansal ve ekonomik krizden sonra toparlan\u0131yor gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n

T\u00fcrk-Suudi ili\u015fkileri neredeyse tamamen bozuldu. Ayn\u0131 zamanda Ankara ile Tahran aras\u0131nda Suriye \u00fczerinde g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcr anla\u015fmazl\u0131klara ra\u011fmen \u0130ran-T\u00fcrk ekonomik i\u015f birli\u011fi s\u00fcr\u00fcyor. T\u00fcrkiye, di\u011fer ba\u015fat b\u00f6lgesel muadilleri gibi Suriye\u2019de ve Do\u011fu Akdeniz\u2019de ABD ve Rusya\u2019n\u0131n yo\u011fun bask\u0131s\u0131 alt\u0131nda. T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin hayati \u00e7\u0131karlar\u0131n\u0131n tehdit alt\u0131nda oldu\u011fu Suriye\u2019de, T\u00fcrkiye F\u0131rat\u2019\u0131n do\u011fusuna b\u00fcy\u00fck bir askeri operasyon ba\u015flatarak kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k vermek zorunda kald\u0131. T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin c\u00fcretk\u00e2r ad\u0131m\u0131 ABD ve Rusya ile iki anla\u015fma ile sonu\u00e7lanarak s\u0131n\u0131r\u0131n Suriye taraf\u0131nda d\u00fc\u015fmanca bir K\u00fcrt olu\u015fumunun ortaya \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131n\u0131 engellemede ba\u015far\u0131l\u0131 olmu\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n

Genel anlamda T\u00fcrkiye, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ekonomik altyap\u0131s\u0131, askeri sanayideki ilerlemesi ve b\u00f6lgedeki y\u00fcksek ahlaki konumu nedeniyle b\u00f6lgesel g\u00fc\u00e7 saf\u0131na y\u00fckselmede b\u00f6lgedeki denklerinden daha ehildir.<\/p>\n

\u0130ran:<\/strong> Obama y\u00f6netimi ile n\u00fckleer anla\u015fmay\u0131 imzalaman\u0131n olumlu siyasi ve ekonomik getirilerinden faydalanmas\u0131 uzun s\u00fcrmedi. Trump y\u00f6netiminin bu anla\u015fmay\u0131 iptal edip yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 geri getirmesinin ard\u0131ndan \u0130ran, modern tarihte bar\u0131\u015f d\u00f6neminde hi\u00e7bir devletin maruz kalmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 yapt\u0131r\u0131mlarla kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131yad\u0131r. \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya oldu\u011fu zorluklar\u0131n Trump y\u00f6netiminin d\u00fc\u015fmanca politikalar\u0131yla s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131k. \u0130ranl\u0131lar Bat\u0131\u2019da kendilerine y\u00f6nelen d\u00fc\u015fmanl\u0131\u011f\u0131n k\u0131z\u0131\u015fmas\u0131nda Suudi Arabistan ile \u0130srail\u2019in kilit rol oynad\u0131\u011f\u0131na inan\u0131yor. \u0130ranl\u0131lar ayr\u0131ca Yemen\u2019deki Suudi sava\u015f\u0131n\u0131n, Suudilerin Irak\u2019ta yer edinme giri\u015fimlerinin, \u0130srail taraf\u0131ndan son \u00fc\u00e7 y\u0131lda Suriye\u2019deki ve yak\u0131n zamanda Irak\u2019taki \u0130ran hedeflerine kar\u015f\u0131 d\u00fczenlenen s\u00fcrekli sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n ABD sald\u0131r\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n bir par\u00e7as\u0131 ve kendilerine diz \u00e7\u00f6kt\u00fcrme giri\u015fimi oldu\u011funa inan\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

\u0130ran\u2019\u0131n kendisini askeri olarak sa\u011flama almas\u0131na ra\u011fmen sava\u015f durumunda ABD\u2019nin geni\u015f \u00e7apl\u0131 y\u0131k\u0131m\u0131na maruz kalaca\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131kt\u0131r ancak ABD taraf\u0131n\u0131n da kay\u0131p verme ihtimali bulunuyor. Bu durum muhtemelen Trump\u2019\u0131n Suudi Arabistan ve \u0130srail\u2019deki m\u00fcttefiklerine g\u00f6re sava\u015f konusunda daha az istekli olmas\u0131na neden oluyor.<\/p>\n

\u0130ran ABD\u2019nin sert yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 alt\u0131nda uzun s\u00fcre ya\u015fayamayaca\u011f\u0131ndan, krizin h\u0131zla \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fclmesini sa\u011flamak i\u00e7in b\u00f6lgedeki gerilim d\u00fczeyini t\u0131rmand\u0131rmas\u0131 gerekiyor. \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n b\u00f6lgedeki askeri g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc ve m\u00fcttefiklerini Suudi Arabistan\u2019\u0131 ve K\u00f6rfez\u2019deki nakliyat rotalar\u0131n\u0131n g\u00fcvenli\u011fini tehdit etmek i\u00e7in kullanmas\u0131n\u0131n nedeni de budur. Ba\u015fka bir deyi\u015fle \u0130ran krizine \u00fc\u00e7 tarafl\u0131 bir perspektiften bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n Suudi Arabistan ile \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmada daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir konumdayken, ABD ile \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmas\u0131nda daha zay\u0131f taraf olarak de\u011ferlendirilebilece\u011fi a\u00e7\u0131kt\u0131r.<\/p>\n

Ancak \u0130ran b\u00f6lgesel n\u00fcfuz sahas\u0131nda ba\u015fka engellerle de kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya. Irak\u2019ta, Irak\u2019\u0131n gelecekteki b\u00f6lgesel \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalarda tarafs\u0131z kalmas\u0131n\u0131 isteyen sesler y\u00fckseliyor. Ayr\u0131ca Rusya\u2019n\u0131n da \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n Suriye\u2019deki varl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 kendi kontrol\u00fcnde Suriyeli milisler \u00f6rg\u00fctleyerek, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n yak\u0131n m\u00fcttefiki olan Suriyeli asker ve g\u00fcvenlik liderlerini Suriye\u2019nin karar alma \u00e7evrelerinden \u00e7\u0131kararak ve \u0130srail\u2019in Suriye\u2019deki \u0130ran hedeflerine yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 sald\u0131r\u0131lara g\u00f6z yumarak zay\u0131flatmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret eden baz\u0131 g\u00f6stergeler var. L\u00fcbnan ve Irak\u2019taki halk ayaklanmalar\u0131nda dile getirilen \u0130ran kar\u015f\u0131t\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc duygular ise \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n b\u00f6lgesel n\u00fcfuzuna y\u00f6nelen daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir tehdittir.<\/p>\n

M\u0131s\u0131r:<\/strong> Suudi Arabistan dahil birka\u00e7 K\u00f6rfez devleti 2013\u2019ten beri M\u0131s\u0131r rejimine a\u011f\u0131r yat\u0131r\u0131mlar yapt\u0131. Suudi Arabistan M\u0131s\u0131r\u2019\u0131n b\u00f6lgeye liderlik eden bir g\u00fc\u00e7 de\u011fil yaln\u0131zca kendi hedeflerini destekleyecek askeri ve siyasi a\u00e7\u0131dan g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir m\u00fcttefik olmas\u0131n\u0131 istiyordu. Ancak yine de birka\u00e7 fakt\u00f6r M\u0131s\u0131r\u2019\u0131n \u00e7evresindeki Arap b\u00f6lgesinde aktif olma becerisini s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

M\u0131s\u0131r rejiminin ekonomik krizi bir\u00e7ok nedenden \u00f6t\u00fcr\u00fc k\u00f6t\u00fcle\u015fti. Rejimin muhaliflerine y\u00f6nelik benzeri g\u00f6r\u00fclmemi\u015f bask\u0131lar\u0131na ra\u011fmen, liderleri rejimin hayatta kal\u0131p s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilir bir istikrar in\u015fa etme kapasitesi konusunda g\u00fcven vermiyor. M\u0131s\u0131r rejiminin b\u00f6lgedeki demokratik de\u011fi\u015fime olan d\u00fc\u015fmanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 nedeniyle Kahire, Suriye devrimine kar\u015f\u0131 Suriye rejimi ile \u0130ranl\u0131 m\u00fcttefiklerini destekliyor. Kahire Sudan\u2019daki de\u011fi\u015fim hareketi s\u0131ras\u0131nda da herhangi bir giri\u015fimde bulunamayarak Etiyopya\u2019n\u0131n ordu ile Sudan de\u011fi\u015fim g\u00fc\u00e7leri aras\u0131ndaki anla\u015fmada arabuluculuk konusunda kilit rol oynamas\u0131na kap\u0131 aralad\u0131. Ve M\u0131s\u0131r\u2019\u0131n Libya\u2019daki hayati \u00e7\u0131karlar\u0131na ra\u011fmen M\u0131s\u0131r rejimi BAE\u2019den sonra ancak ikincil bir rol\u00fc kabul etti.<\/p>\n

Sadece Gazze \u015eeridi\u2019nde (Bat\u0131 \u015eeria\u2019da bile de\u011fil) M\u0131s\u0131r\u2019a bu rol\u00fcndeki ahlaki kayg\u0131lardan ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z olarak somut bir rol oynama izni verilmi\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n

\u0130srail:<\/strong> Yahudi devleti ge\u00e7en birka\u00e7 y\u0131lda hem Bat\u0131 \u015eeria\u2019daki yerle\u015fimlerin geni\u015flemesi hem de Kud\u00fcs\u2019teki fiili durum a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan ama ayr\u0131ca \u0130ran\u2019a kar\u015f\u0131 bir koalisyonda Trump y\u00f6netiminin de deste\u011fiyle birka\u00e7 K\u00f6rfez Arap devletiyle gayriresmi de olsa a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131mlar yaparak somut kazan\u0131mlar elde etti. Bunun yan\u0131nda Rusya da Yahudi devletiyle iyi ili\u015fkiler kurma pe\u015finde oldu\u011fundan \u0130srail, \u0130ran ve onun Suriye\u2019deki m\u00fcttefiklerine kar\u015f\u0131 hamle yapmada neredeyse tamamen serbest.<\/p>\n

Fakat \u0130srail devletinin b\u00f6lgesel \u00e7evresinde tamamen olumlu bir stratejik iklim kurmada ba\u015far\u0131l\u0131 oldu\u011funu s\u00f6ylemek basite ka\u00e7mak olur. Arap d\u00fcnyas\u0131ndaki de\u011fi\u015fim hareketi sona ermedi ve \u0130srailli \u00e7evrelerde ne zaman bir Arap \u00fclkesinde pop\u00fcler g\u00f6steri hareketi ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fclen kayg\u0131 ve gerginlik d\u00fczeyi \u0130srail devleti ile Arap devletleri aras\u0131ndaki bar\u0131\u015f\u0131n k\u0131r\u0131lganl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. \u0130srail\u2019in, Hamas ve Hizbullah gibi d\u00fc\u015fman g\u00fc\u00e7lerin silahlanmas\u0131n\u0131 k\u0131s\u0131tlamaya y\u00f6nelik yo\u011fun \u00e7abalar\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131n \u0130srail kar\u015f\u0131t\u0131 \u00f6rg\u00fctlerin bug\u00fcn sahip oldu\u011fu silahlar \u0130srail\u2019in g\u00fcvenli\u011fine ger\u00e7ek bir tehdit olu\u015fturuyor.<\/p>\n

\u0130ran\u2019\u0131n elinde \u0130srail\u2019in g\u00fcvenli\u011fini ciddi bir bi\u00e7imde tehdit edebilecek bir y\u0131\u011f\u0131n silah, \u00f6zellikle de f\u00fcze bulunuyor. \u0130ran, halen n\u00fckleer silah geli\u015ftirme kapasitesini s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcrken Erdo\u011fan\u2019\u0131n yak\u0131n zamanda T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin n\u00fckleer silah elde etmesinin \u00f6nlenmesinin me\u015fruiyetini sorgulamas\u0131 Ankara\u2019n\u0131n da n\u00fckleer kapasite geli\u015ftirme ihtiyac\u0131 hissediyor olabilece\u011finin a\u00e7\u0131k bir g\u00f6stergesi.<\/p>\n

\u0130srail politikas\u0131ndaki de\u011fi\u015fimler, Filistinlilerin reddi, M\u0131s\u0131r ve Suudi Arabistan gibi Arap \u00fclkelerinin desteklerini a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131ndan duyulan korku \u0131\u015f\u0131\u011f\u0131nda ABD\u2019nin, \u0130srail devletine Filistin\u2019in \u00e7o\u011funa h\u00e2kim olma ve kom\u015fular\u0131yla kapsaml\u0131 bir normalle\u015fme sa\u011flama konusunda ihtiya\u00e7 duydu\u011fu me\u015fruiyeti verebilecek olan \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm projesinin art\u0131k tart\u0131\u015fma konusu olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve ba\u015flat\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda hayata ge\u00e7irilmesinin \u00e7ok zor olaca\u011f\u0131 art\u0131k a\u00e7\u0131k\u00e7a g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n

Devrim ve De\u011fi\u015fim Hareketi: Kar\u015f\u0131 Devrimin D\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

Arap d\u00fcnyas\u0131ndaki devrim ve demokratik de\u011fi\u015fim hareketi 2013 yaz\u0131nda M\u0131s\u0131r\u2019da kar\u015f\u0131 devrimci g\u00fc\u00e7lerin ba\u015far\u0131lar\u0131ndan beri b\u00fcy\u00fck bir gerileme ya\u015fad\u0131. En b\u00fcy\u00fck ve en etkili Arap \u00fclkesi M\u0131s\u0131r de\u011fi\u015fim hareketinin merkezi olmu\u015ftu. M\u0131s\u0131r\u2019daki demokratik ge\u00e7i\u015f s\u00fcrecinin akamete u\u011framas\u0131 asl\u0131nda di\u011fer Arap \u00fclkelerinin \u00e7o\u011fundaki demokratik s\u00fcrecin ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131zl\u0131\u011f\u0131na yol a\u00e7t\u0131.<\/p>\n

Fakat kar\u015f\u0131 devrimci hareket ilerleyi\u015fini s\u00fcrd\u00fcremedi. Tunus\u2019ta eski rejimin baz\u0131 \u00fcyeleri iktidara d\u00f6nse de \u00fclkedeki demokratik s\u00fcre\u00e7 korundu. Kar\u015f\u0131 devrim Libya\u2019da da \u00fclke i\u00e7 sava\u015fa s\u00fcr\u00fcklendikten sonra tam h\u00e2kimiyetini kuramad\u0131. Suriye\u2019de bile 2015 sonbahar\u0131nda Rus askeri g\u00fc\u00e7leri devasa maliyetler pahas\u0131na durumu kurtarmaya \u00e7a\u011fr\u0131lana kadar rejim fiili olarak geri \u00e7ekiliyordu. \u0130ran yanl\u0131s\u0131 Husi darbesinin sanc\u0131l\u0131 ve maliyetli bir i\u00e7 sava\u015f\u0131 tetikledi\u011fi Yemen \u00f6rne\u011finde ise durum farkl\u0131 de\u011fil.<\/p>\n

Devrim g\u00fc\u00e7leri ile kar\u015f\u0131 devrim kamp\u0131 aras\u0131ndaki esas mesele ikincisinin ne siyasi ve ekonomik d\u00fczeyde ne de devlet kurumlar\u0131 ile halk aras\u0131ndaki ili\u015fkiler konusunda ikna edici bir alternatif sunabilmesidir. \u00c7o\u011fu durumda kar\u015f\u0131 devrim hareketi 2011 \u00f6ncesi rejimlerin bozulmu\u015f bir alternatifini \u00f6nerdi. Bu y\u00fczden ne istikrar sa\u011flayabildi ne de yeni darbe temelli modellere me\u015fruiyet kazand\u0131rabildi.<\/p>\n

Tunus\u2019ta ba\u015flay\u0131p birka\u00e7 Arap devletine yay\u0131lan pop\u00fcler devrimci hareketlerin ge\u00e7ici \u00f6fke g\u00f6sterileri olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 aksine t\u00fcm tarihsel d\u00f6nemin sonu ile Birinci D\u00fcnya Sava\u015f\u0131 sonras\u0131 Arap devletinin kendisini yeniden kurup me\u015fruiyetini yeniden \u00fcretme konusundaki ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131zl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n i\u015faretleri oldu\u011fu bariz h\u00e2le geldi.<\/p>\n

O y\u00fczden de 2019 senesinde Cezayir, Sudan, L\u00fcbnan ve Irak\u2019ta ilgili \u00fclkelerde yava\u015f ve zorlu da olsa ger\u00e7ek de\u011fi\u015fime g\u00f6t\u00fcren halk ayaklanmalar\u0131na tan\u0131k olunmas\u0131 \u015fa\u015f\u0131rt\u0131c\u0131 olmad\u0131. M\u0131s\u0131r\u2019\u0131n da rejimin kitlesel kanl\u0131 bask\u0131s\u0131na ra\u011fmen huzursuzlu\u011fun ve yeni bir halk hareketinin i\u015faretlerine tan\u0131kl\u0131k etmesi ola\u011fand\u0131\u015f\u0131 de\u011fildi.<\/p>\n

K\u0131sacas\u0131 Arap b\u00f6lgesi yak\u0131n zamanda istikrar bulamayacak ve devrim ve de\u011fi\u015fim hareketleri m\u00fccadele ne kadar maliyetli olursa olsun gelecek uzun y\u0131llarda \u00e7ok b\u00fcy\u00fck olas\u0131l\u0131kla devam edecek.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n<\/div>

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Arap devrimlerinin ba\u015flamas\u0131ndan sonraki dokuz y\u0131l i\u00e7erisinde i\u00e7 gerilimler ve istikrars\u0131zl\u0131k h\u00e2l\u00e2 Arap Ma\u015fr\u0131k b\u00f6lgesini \u015fekillendirip b\u00f6lgesel \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131 derinle\u015ftiriyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":11974,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","ngg_post_thumbnail":0},"categories":[364],"tags":[5076,9816],"asf_pub_issue":[10317,10319],"asf_pub_region":[10321,10323],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12264"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/5"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=12264"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12264\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":18176,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12264\/revisions\/18176"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/11974"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=12264"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=12264"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=12264"},{"taxonomy":"asf_pub_issue","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/asf_pub_issue?post=12264"},{"taxonomy":"asf_pub_region","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/asf_pub_region?post=12264"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}