\u0130ran\u2019\u0131n t\u00fcm siyasi akt\u00f6rlerini ayn\u0131 kefeye koymamak \u00f6nemli, baz\u0131lar\u0131 \u015fiddete meyilli ve b\u00f6lgede ve \u00f6tesindeki rakip ve d\u00fc\u015fmanlar\u0131 i\u00e7in cayd\u0131r\u0131c\u0131 etkin bir g\u00fc\u00e7 yaratmaya kafay\u0131 takm\u0131\u015fken, di\u011ferleri \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n hesaplanmam\u0131\u015f risk ve maceralara at\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlamay\u0131 tercih ediyor. Kas\u0131m S\u00fcleymani \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n ge\u00e7en on y\u0131ldaki en \u00f6nemli taktik ve strateji uzman\u0131yd\u0131 ve \u00fclkenin Ortado\u011fu ve Kuzey Afrika (MENA) b\u00f6lgesindeki jeopolitik varl\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131n korumas\u0131ndan b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde sorumluydu. \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n d\u0131\u015far\u0131daki rakiplerini yenmek olan temel hedefi \u00e7e\u015fitli devlet-d\u0131\u015f\u0131 akt\u00f6rlerin Tahran\u2019\u0131n deste\u011fine ba\u011fl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 peki\u015ftirip geleneksel olmayan m\u00fcttefikler aras\u0131ndan yeni ba\u011fl\u0131l\u0131klar olu\u015fturmak \u00fczerinden ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftiriliyordu. Bu anlamda Hizbullah\u2019\u0131n L\u00fcbnan\u2019daki n\u00fcfuzunun korunmas\u0131yla Be\u015f\u015far Esad\u2019\u0131n Suriye\u2019de iktidarda kalmas\u0131n\u0131n sa\u011flanmas\u0131, Irakl\u0131 m\u00fcttefiklerinin otonomisinin geni\u015fletilmesi ve Husilerin Yemen\u2019in yeni siyaset sahnesinin merkezine yerle\u015ftirilmesi gibi ba\u015far\u0131lar k\u0131smen S\u00fcleymani\u2019ye atfedilebilir. Yine de bu strateji \u0130ran\u2019\u0131 rakiplerinden gelecek sald\u0131r\u0131lara kar\u015f\u0131 daha da savunmas\u0131z k\u0131larak nihayet ABD\u2019ye, Tahran\u2019a yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar uygulama konusunda yeni gerek\u00e7eler sa\u011flad\u0131. Strateji ayn\u0131 zamanda \u00fclke d\u0131\u015f\u0131ndaki yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 fonlarken \u00fclke ekonomisini y\u00fcr\u00fctmekten aciz kalan \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n ekonomisine giderek artan s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131lar getirdi.<\/p>\n
Bu y\u00fczden \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n Kas\u0131m S\u00fcleymani suikast\u0131na do\u011frudan misilleme yapma ihtimali, \u00fclkenin son birka\u00e7 y\u0131ldaki en zay\u0131f ve en hassas oldu\u011fu bir zamanda \u00fclkeyi b\u00f6lgesel rakipleri ve k\u00fcresel d\u00fc\u015fmanlar\u0131yla tam kapsaml\u0131 bir kar\u015f\u0131la\u015fmaya maruz b\u0131rakabilir. Halk\u0131n deste\u011fini alaca\u011f\u0131 kesin olmayan b\u00f6yle bir kar\u015f\u0131la\u015fman\u0131n sonu\u00e7lar\u0131 teoride iktidardaki rejimin temellerini sarsabilir ama bunun \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n \u00fclke d\u0131\u015f\u0131ndaki maceralar\u0131n\u0131 tehlikeye sokaca\u011f\u0131 da kesin. \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n en muhtemel tepkisi ABD\u2019nin kabul edilebilirlik s\u0131n\u0131rlar\u0131 dahilinde ve karar\u0131 verilmemi\u015f bir t\u0131rmanma riski olu\u015fturmadan mazur g\u00f6r\u00fclebilir bir hamle yapmak olacakt\u0131r. \u0130ran ancak mevcut y\u00f6netim iktidar\u0131n\u0131n b\u00fct\u00fcnl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fcn tehlikede oldu\u011funa ve bu y\u00fczden kaybedecek bir \u015feyinin kalmad\u0131\u011f\u0131na h\u00fckmederse farkl\u0131 bir tepki verir.<\/p>\n
Son dokuz y\u0131lda S\u00fcleymani \u0130DMO\u2019nun Suriye\u2019deki hedeflerini kendisine sad\u0131k Suriyeli devlet-d\u0131\u015f\u0131 silahl\u0131 gruplar kurarak y\u00f6netebiliyordu. Yerel Savunma G\u00fc\u00e7leri ve \u0130slami Direni\u015f Ordusu ad\u0131 alt\u0131ndaki bu gruplar Halep ile g\u00fcney ve do\u011fu k\u0131rsal\u0131nda ve Kalamun, Suriye \u00e7\u00f6l\u00fc ve F\u0131rat\u2019\u0131n g\u00fcney k\u0131y\u0131s\u0131 boyunca geli\u015fme alan\u0131 bulmu\u015ftu. \u0130DMO modeli kontrol ettikleri b\u00f6lgelerdeki g\u00fcndemlerini ilerletmek i\u00e7in \u00e7e\u015fitli taban hareketlerini komuta alt\u0131na almay\u0131 i\u00e7eriyor. \u0130DMO bunlar\u0131 yerel d\u00fczeyde varl\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 sabitlemeye ve kendilerine aray\u0131\u015f i\u00e7indeki rakiplerine direnme g\u00fcc\u00fc ve zor zamanlarda \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n finansal deste\u011fi olmadan kendi ba\u015flar\u0131na var olabilme imk\u00e2n\u0131 verecek yerel ekonomik bir yap\u0131 kurmaya da te\u015fvik ediyor.<\/p>\n
\u0130DMO uzant\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n farkl\u0131 \u00fclkelerdeki ba\u015far\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 Suriye\u2019de ideal bir ortam olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in tekrarlayamamalar\u0131n\u0131n baz\u0131 sebepleri var. \u0130ran destekli milis gruplara yaz\u0131lan g\u00f6n\u00fcll\u00fclerin b\u00fcy\u00fck bir kesimi parasal ihtiya\u00e7lardan veya pragmatik nedenlerle kat\u0131ld\u0131. Bunun yan\u0131nda mevcut gruplar daha geni\u015f anlamdaki \u0130ran projesine ideolojik sadakatlerini peki\u015ftirecek uzunlukta bir kulu\u00e7ka d\u00f6nemi ya\u015fayamad\u0131. Fakat S\u00fcleymani\u2019nin Suriye\u2019deki miras\u0131na en b\u00fcy\u00fck tehdit illa d\u0131\u015far\u0131dan de\u011fil bunun yerine gruplardaki sadakat eksikli\u011fi ve di\u011fer yerel gruplar\u0131n bula\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 maddi ve ahlaki yozla\u015fmaya direnme g\u00fc\u00e7lerinin olmamas\u0131ndan geliyor.<\/p>\n
Eklenecek bir ba\u015fka husus ise Vladimir Putin\u2019in b\u00fcy\u00fck oranda \u0130ran destekli gruplar\u0131n ABD g\u00fc\u00e7leriyle \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma senaryosunu \u00f6nlemeyi ama\u00e7layan son \u015eam ziyareti. ABD\u2019nin yerel m\u00fcttefikleri, \u00f6zellikle de Suriye Demokratik G\u00fc\u00e7leri\u2019ne (SDG) kar\u015f\u0131 sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n te\u015fvik edilmesi h\u00e2l\u00e2 m\u00fcmk\u00fcn. Fakat bu senaryo Tahran\u2019\u0131n Demokratik Birlik Partisi (PYD) liderli\u011findeki SDG ile iyi ili\u015fkileri s\u00fcrd\u00fcrme \u00fcmidini h\u00e2l\u00e2 korudu\u011fu i\u00e7in muhtemel g\u00f6r\u00fcnm\u00fcyor. Daha \u00f6nceki bir\u00e7ok geli\u015fmede \u0130ranl\u0131lar Suriye\u2019deki PKK uzant\u0131s\u0131 ile Suriye rejimi aras\u0131ndaki farkl\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131n azalt\u0131lmas\u0131nda b\u00fcy\u00fck bir rol oynad\u0131. Bunun bir \u00f6rne\u011fini ABD\u2019nin Suriye\u2019den birliklerini \u00e7ekme karar\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan Ruhani ve di\u011fer \u0130ranl\u0131 yetkililerin SDG\u2019ye Suriye rejimi ile i\u015f birli\u011fi yapma \u00e7a\u011fr\u0131s\u0131nda bulunmas\u0131nda g\u00f6rebiliriz. Elbette \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n Suriye\u2019de verebilece\u011fi tek tepki hen\u00fcz olgunla\u015fmam\u0131\u015f \u015febekelerinin ABD ile kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya gelmesini bilhassa Rusya ve Be\u015f\u015far Esad\u2019\u0131n b\u00f6yle bir sava\u015fa destek vermemesi nedeniyle \u00f6nlemek olacak.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
\u0130ran\u2019\u0131n t\u00fcm siyasi akt\u00f6rlerini ayn\u0131 kefeye koymamak \u00f6nemli, baz\u0131lar\u0131 \u015fiddete meyilli ve b\u00f6lgede ve \u00f6tesindeki rakip ve d\u00fc\u015fmanlar\u0131 i\u00e7in cayd\u0131r\u0131c\u0131 etkin bir g\u00fc\u00e7 yaratmaya kafay\u0131 takm\u0131\u015fken, di\u011ferleri \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n hesaplanmam\u0131\u015f risk ve maceralara at\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlamay\u0131 tercih […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":61,"featured_media":26935,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","ngg_post_thumbnail":0},"categories":[364],"tags":[],"asf_pub_issue":[10313,10317,10319],"asf_pub_region":[10321],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/14593"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/61"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=14593"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/14593\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":14594,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/14593\/revisions\/14594"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/26935"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=14593"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=14593"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=14593"},{"taxonomy":"asf_pub_issue","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/asf_pub_issue?post=14593"},{"taxonomy":"asf_pub_region","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/asf_pub_region?post=14593"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}