\u0130ran, COVID-19 pandemisinin b\u00f6lgesel merkezi h\u00e2line geldi. Bu durumun \u00fclke ve b\u00f6lge siyaseti \u00fczerinde \u00e7ok say\u0131da neticesi olacak. Salg\u0131n, dikkatleri \u0130ran h\u00fck\u00fcmetinin sa\u011fl\u0131k krizini y\u00f6netme bi\u00e7imine \u00e7ekti ve Bat\u0131\u2019da, ABD\u2019nin \u0130ran rejimine uygulad\u0131\u011f\u0131 yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda ne boyutta uluslararas\u0131 yard\u0131m\u0131n yap\u0131labilece\u011fine dair tart\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131 da ate\u015fledi. Baz\u0131 yorumcular taraf\u0131ndan \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n b\u00f6lgesel n\u00fcfuzunun alt\u0131 \u00e7izilerek salg\u0131ndan \u00f6t\u00fcr\u00fc yap\u0131lacak finansal yard\u0131m\u0131n dolayl\u0131 olarak bu n\u00fcfuz alan\u0131n\u0131n geni\u015flemesine katk\u0131da bulunaca\u011f\u0131 \u00f6ne s\u00fcr\u00fcld\u00fc. \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n bu yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n kalkmas\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki kampanyas\u0131 ve ABD ile Avrupa Birli\u011fi\u2019nin (AB) de \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n salg\u0131n\u0131 kontrol edememesini kendi \u00e7\u0131karlar\u0131n\u0131 da etkileyen bir tehdit olarak g\u00f6rmesi sayesinde \u015fu an k\u0131s\u0131tlamalar\u0131n kald\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 ve t\u0131bbi malzemelerin temininin sa\u011flanmas\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcnde bir gidi\u015fat mevcut. Ayr\u0131ca \u0130ran\u2019a Uluslararas\u0131 Para Fonu\u2019ndan (IMF) salg\u0131na y\u00f6nelik bor\u00e7 alabilmesi konusunda ye\u015fil \u0131\u015f\u0131k yak\u0131ld\u0131. <\/p>\n
Bunlara ek olarak, Avrupa\u2019n\u0131n \u0130ran ile ticaret yapmak i\u00e7in kurdu\u011fu ancak uzun s\u00fcredir i\u015flevsiz kalan INSTEX, Mart ay\u0131n\u0131n sonunda ilk ba\u015far\u0131l\u0131 ticari i\u015flemin yap\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 sa\u011flad\u0131. \u0130ran Cumhurba\u015fkan\u0131 Hasan Ruhani\u2019nin uluslararas\u0131 destek toplamak i\u00e7in ortaya koydu\u011fu gayret \u0130ran i\u00e7erisinde de tart\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131 ate\u015fledi. Ba\u015fta muhafazak\u00e2rlar olmak \u00fczere muhalif kamp, Ruhani\u2019yi IMF\u2019den talep edilen 5 milyar dolarl\u0131k bor\u00e7 sebebiyle ele\u015ftirdi. Ruhani\u2019nin muhafazak\u00e2r muhalifleri \u015eubat 2020\u2019deki se\u00e7imlerde \u0130ran meclisindeki koltuklar\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00e7o\u011funlu\u011funu alm\u0131\u015f ve \u0130ran d\u0131\u015f politikas\u0131ndaki etkisini artt\u0131rm\u0131\u015ft\u0131.<\/p>\n
Ruhani\u2019nin uluslararas\u0131 topluma ula\u015fmak i\u00e7in iki motivasyonu var. Birincisi, fiyatlarda ya\u015fanan b\u00fcy\u00fck d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f sebebiyle petrol ihrac\u0131ndan sa\u011flanan katk\u0131n\u0131n azald\u0131\u011f\u0131 bu d\u00f6nemde h\u00fck\u00fcmet \u00fclkenin yo\u011fun bask\u0131 alt\u0131ndaki ekonomisinin daha da k\u00f6t\u00fc h\u00e2le gelmesini engellemek istiyor. H\u00fck\u00fcmetin istatistikleri, y\u0131ll\u0131k mukayese baz al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, petrol harici ekonominin ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz y\u0131l\u0131n son 9 ay\u0131ndaki b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinin negatiften s\u0131f\u0131ra geldi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. \u0130\u015fsizlik ve enflasyon oranlar\u0131nda da ufak bir geli\u015fme s\u00f6z konusu. Petrol fiyatlar\u0131 Suudi Arabistan ve Rusya aras\u0131ndaki rekabet sebebiyle k\u00fcresel piyasalarda serbest d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe ge\u00e7erken, salg\u0131n bu g\u00f6rece ba\u015far\u0131lar\u0131 ortadan kald\u0131racak. D\u0131\u015f ticaret, turizm ve emeklilik fonlar\u0131n\u0131n hepsi olumsuz y\u00f6nde etkilenecek ve bu durum \u0130ran\u2019daki enflasyonu ve i\u015fsizlik oranlar\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fckseltecek. Ruhani, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n son iki y\u0131lda daha s\u0131kl\u0131kla tan\u0131k oldu\u011fu g\u00f6sterilerin salg\u0131n sebebiyle gelecekte artabilece\u011fini anl\u0131yor. Bu krizi \u00fclkesinin ekonomisine yard\u0131m sa\u011flamayaca\u011f\u0131 bir f\u0131rsata d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcrmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131yor. \u0130kincisi, e\u011fer Ruhani IMF\u2019den krediyi al\u0131r ve yurt d\u0131\u015f\u0131ndaki baz\u0131 malvarl\u0131klar\u0131 \u00fczerindeki k\u0131s\u0131tlamalar\u0131 kald\u0131rabilirse, bunlara dair geri \u00f6demeleri ABD ile daha somut zeminde m\u00fczakere edebilece\u011fi bir koz olarak kullanmay\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyor olabilir. Ruhani\u2019nin uluslararas\u0131 topluma a\u00e7\u0131kl\u0131\u011f\u0131 k\u0131smen gelecekteki m\u00fczakerelere ili\u015fkin bir iyi niyet g\u00f6stergesi dahi olabilir.<\/p>\n
Pandeminin \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n b\u00f6lgesel n\u00fcfuzu \u00fczerinde baz\u0131 olumsuz etkileri olabilir, zira b\u00f6lgedeki seyahatler \u00fczerindeki k\u0131s\u0131tlamalar\u0131n mobilizasyonu azaltmas\u0131 ve azalan ekonomik gelirler sebebiyle faaliyetlerin finanse edilememesi gibi bir\u00e7ok krizin varl\u0131\u011f\u0131, liderlik seviyesinde dikkat da\u011f\u0131n\u0131kl\u0131\u011f\u0131na yol a\u00e7abilir. Bunun tam tersine, ABD ve Irakl\u0131 \u015eii silahl\u0131 gruplar aras\u0131ndaki bir \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma ABD\u2019nin daha fazla asker \u00e7ekmesine yol a\u00e7arsa \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7 kazanmas\u0131 da m\u00fcmk\u00fcn olabilir. Avrupal\u0131 askeri birlikler h\u00e2lihaz\u0131rda salg\u0131n sebebiyle Irak\u2019tan \u00e7ekiliyor ve ABD \u00f6nc\u00fcl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcndeki uluslararas\u0131 koalisyon g\u00fcvenlik sebebiyle kendisini daha az \u00fcste ve daha az askerle yeniden konumland\u0131r\u0131yor. Bu da pandeminin \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n b\u00f6lgesel n\u00fcfuzu \u00fczerinde hem olumlu hem de olumsuz, farkl\u0131 t\u00fcrde etkileri olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
\u0130ran, COVID-19 pandemisinin b\u00f6lgesel merkezi h\u00e2line geldi. Bu durumun \u00fclke ve b\u00f6lge siyaseti \u00fczerinde \u00e7ok say\u0131da neticesi olacak. Salg\u0131n, dikkatleri \u0130ran h\u00fck\u00fcmetinin sa\u011fl\u0131k krizini y\u00f6netme bi\u00e7imine \u00e7ekti ve Bat\u0131\u2019da, ABD\u2019nin \u0130ran rejimine uygulad\u0131\u011f\u0131 yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":55,"featured_media":26953,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","ngg_post_thumbnail":0},"categories":[364],"tags":[],"asf_pub_issue":[10313,10317,10319],"asf_pub_region":[10321],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/14873"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/55"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=14873"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/14873\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":14874,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/14873\/revisions\/14874"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/26953"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=14873"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=14873"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=14873"},{"taxonomy":"asf_pub_issue","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/asf_pub_issue?post=14873"},{"taxonomy":"asf_pub_region","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/asf_pub_region?post=14873"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}