{"id":14881,"date":"2020-04-06T12:06:14","date_gmt":"2020-04-06T09:06:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/?p=14881"},"modified":"2020-08-25T13:54:46","modified_gmt":"2020-08-25T10:54:46","slug":"pandemide-bolgesel-is-birligi-ortaya-cikamadi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/2020\/04\/06\/pandemide-bolgesel-is-birligi-ortaya-cikamadi\/","title":{"rendered":"Pandemide B\u00f6lgesel \u0130\u015f Birli\u011fi Ortaya \u00c7\u0131kamad\u0131"},"content":{"rendered":"

Ulusal \u00f6l\u00e7ekte salg\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 ortaya konan \u00e7abalar\u0131n b\u00f6lgesel \u00e7apta -ne K\u0130K ne de Arap Ligi [ne de b\u00f6lge a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7ekteki \u0130slam \u0130\u015fbirli\u011fi Te\u015fkilat\u0131 (\u0130\u0130T)] \u00fczerinden- ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmedi\u011fi not edilmeli. Ancak bu \u015fa\u015f\u0131rt\u0131c\u0131 bir durum de\u011fil. Arap Ligi\u2019nin son toplant\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n koronavir\u00fcs (ve Suriye\u2019nin yeniden \u00fcye olarak kabul edilmesine ili\u015fkin anla\u015fmazl\u0131k) sebebiyle iptal edildi\u011fi s\u00f6ylendi. B\u00f6lgede bula\u015f\u0131c\u0131 hastal\u0131klar\u0131n y\u00f6netimi gibi g\u00f6rece daha az siyasi meselelere ili\u015fkin i\u015f birli\u011fi yap\u0131lmas\u0131 noktas\u0131nda s\u00fcrekli ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131z olundu. Zira b\u00f6lgedeki devletler aras\u0131ndaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck g\u00fcven seviyesi, Arap Ligi \u00fcyeleri aras\u0131nda veri, deneyim ve en iyi uygulamalar\u0131n payla\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 da engelliyor. Al Sharq Forum taraf\u0131ndan yay\u0131mlanan B\u00f6lgesel G\u00fcvenlik Mimarisini konu alan kitab\u0131m\u0131zda da ifade edildi\u011fi gibi, Arap Ligi b\u00f6lgedeki hastal\u0131klar\u0131n y\u00f6netimi i\u00e7in politikalar\u0131n\u0131 koordine etme ve verileri payla\u015fma konular\u0131nda a\u00e7\u0131k bir bi\u00e7imde ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131z olmu\u015ftur.<\/p>\n

K\u0130K\u2019in de bu s\u00fcre\u00e7te ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131z oldu\u011fu a\u00e7\u0131kt\u0131r. COVID-19 salg\u0131n\u0131, b\u00f6lgede bir soruna kar\u015f\u0131 ortaya konan gayretlerin koordinasyonu ve yak\u0131n i\u015f birli\u011finin ancak ikili, en iyi ihtimalle \u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc d\u00fczeyde ve stratejik hedefler i\u00e7in (Birle\u015fik Arap Emirlikleri\u2019nin [BAE] Suriye\u2019ye yard\u0131m teklifi gibi) olabildi\u011fini bir kez daha teyit etti. Al Sharq Forum\u2019un yay\u0131mlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 kitab\u0131m\u0131zda ifade edildi\u011fi \u00fczere ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz on y\u0131l i\u00e7erisinde kurumsal olarak do\u011fru y\u00f6nde baz\u0131 ad\u0131mlar at\u0131lm\u0131\u015f olsa bile \u0130\u0130T de benzer bir \u015fekilde \u015fu ana kadar i\u015flevsel bir mekanizma olu\u015fturamad\u0131. Yaln\u0131zca, b\u00fcnyesindeki \u0130slami Kalk\u0131nma Bankas\u0131 arac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131yla mevcut salg\u0131ndan etkilenen 57 \u00fcyesinden 45\u2019i i\u00e7in 2 milyar dolarl\u0131k ufak bir ekonomi paket il\u00e2n edebildi.  <\/p>\n

Orta Do\u011fu\u2019da Sivil-Asker-Koronavir\u00fcs \u0130li\u015fkileri<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

Orta Do\u011fu b\u00f6lgesi COVID-19 pandemisi ile d\u00fcnyan\u0131n di\u011fer yerleri gibi bo\u011fu\u015furken, dikkatimizi celbeden bir e\u011filim mevcut: B\u00f6lgede pandemiye kar\u015f\u0131 ulusal d\u00fczeyde yap\u0131lanlara askerin m\u00fcdahalesi noktas\u0131nda farkl\u0131 uygulamalar g\u00f6r\u00fclmekte. T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de sil\u00e2hl\u0131 kuvvetler sadece salg\u0131ndan korunmas\u0131 gereken bir hedef olarak an\u0131l\u0131rken, di\u011fer \u00fclkelerde askerin salg\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 politikalar\u0131n tasarlanmas\u0131nda (sivil veya askeri) h\u00fck\u00fcmetlere ya ortak oldu\u011fu ya da ulusal\/yerel soka\u011fa \u00e7\u0131kma talimatlar\u0131n\u0131n uygulanmas\u0131n\u0131 sa\u011flayarak al\u0131nan \u00f6nlemlerin hayata ge\u00e7irilmesine yard\u0131mc\u0131 oldu\u011fu g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n

Bu e\u011filimin Orta Do\u011fu b\u00f6lgesiyle s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 da ifade edilmeli. Baz\u0131 ileri demokrasilerde dahi devlet kapasitesinin bu meydan okumaya kar\u015f\u0131 koymada yetersiz kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve sivil h\u00fck\u00fcmetlerin askerden yard\u0131m talebinde bulundu\u011fu g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc. Trump y\u00f6netiminin ABD Hava Kuvvetleri\u2019nin yurt d\u0131\u015f\u0131ndan test kitlerini ta\u015f\u0131malar\u0131 i\u00e7in yard\u0131m istemesi ve \u0130talya h\u00fck\u00fcmetinin \u00f6l\u00fcleri hastanelerden mezarl\u0131klara ta\u015f\u0131mak i\u00e7in askeri ara\u00e7lar\u0131 kullanmas\u0131 gibi \u00f6rnekler s\u00f6z konusu. Buna kar\u015f\u0131n, \u0130talya ve ABD gibi bat\u0131 \u00fclkelerinde bu e\u011filimin sivil-asker ili\u015fkilerini de\u011fi\u015ftirmesi pek muhtemel de\u011fil.<\/p>\n

Bunun aksine, Orta Do\u011fu b\u00f6lgesi ve \u00e7evresinde mesele daha karma\u015f\u0131k bir noktaya gelebilir. Salg\u0131n, Tunus ve Cezayir gibi b\u00f6lge \u00fclkelerinde hassas ge\u00e7i\u015f d\u00f6nemlerinin ya\u015fand\u0131\u011f\u0131, \u0130ran\u2019da da yayg\u0131n halk g\u00f6sterilerinin ve rejime y\u00f6nelik bask\u0131n\u0131n artt\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir d\u00f6neme denk geldi. Rejimin ger\u00e7ek hasta ve \u00f6len insan say\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 saklad\u0131\u011f\u0131na ili\u015fkin s\u00f6ylentiler Devrim Muhaf\u0131zlar\u0131\u2019na ve \u0130ran rejimine kar\u015f\u0131 eylemleri daha da ate\u015fleyebilir. Cezayir\u2019deki Hirak Hareketi de koronavir\u00fcs tehdidinden etkilenecek. Bu etkinin tam olarak nas\u0131l olaca\u011f\u0131 \u015fu an i\u00e7in kestirilemezken, Cezayir devletinin salg\u0131nla m\u00fccadelede ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131z olmas\u0131 durumunda Hareket\u2019in devinimini kaybetmesi veya Hareket\u2019e y\u00f6nelik muhalefetin artmas\u0131 ihtimaller dahilinde.<\/p>\n

COVID-19 salg\u0131n\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 ulusal \u00f6l\u00e7ekte ortaya konan gayretlere askerin kat\u0131l\u0131m\u0131n\u0131n, depremler gibi ordunun bizzat hemen etkilenmedi\u011fi do\u011fal afetlerden farkl\u0131 oldu\u011funu da not d\u00fc\u015fmek gerekir. Bu tip durumlarda ordu afetzedelerin tahliyesi, aranmas\u0131 ve kurtar\u0131lmas\u0131 faaliyetlerinde ve afet sonras\u0131 in\u015fa \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131nda yard\u0131mc\u0131 olabilmekte ve bu sebeple siyasi n\u00fcfuz elde etme veya zaten var olan siyasi g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc artt\u0131rma imk\u00e2n\u0131 bulmakta. Ancak salg\u0131n\u0131n ABD\u2019den (ABD topraklar\u0131ndaki askerlerin aras\u0131nda ya\u015fanacak bir salg\u0131ndan korkulurken, Afganistan\u2019daki Amerikan askerleri aras\u0131nda hastal\u0131\u011fa kap\u0131lanlar oldu) M\u0131s\u0131r\u2019a (h\u00e2lihaz\u0131rda \u00fcst r\u00fctbeli baz\u0131 ordu mensuplar\u0131 koronavir\u00fcs nedeniyle ya\u015fam\u0131n\u0131 yitirdi) kadar bir\u00e7ok orduyu etkileme potansiyeli var.<\/p>\n

Bu y\u00fczden, ayn\u0131 sivil h\u00fck\u00fcmetler gibi ordular\u0131n da prestiji ve auras\u0131 bu salg\u0131ndan \u00f6t\u00fcr\u00fc erozyona u\u011framaya a\u00e7\u0131k. Tunus\u2019ta demokratik sivil bir y\u00f6netime ge\u00e7i\u015fe m\u00fcsaade etmesi sebebiyle ordu \u00f6vg\u00fcye mazhar olmu\u015ftu ancak COVID-19\u2019a kar\u015f\u0131 ulusal stratejinin hem tasarlanmas\u0131 hem de uygulanmas\u0131 noktas\u0131nda ordunun m\u00fcdahalesi \u00e7ok a\u00e7\u0131k. Hem Tunus ordusunun m\u00fcdahalesinin bu salg\u0131ndan sonra kal\u0131c\u0131 olup olmayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 hem de \u00fclkedeki sivil-asker ili\u015fkilerinin nas\u0131l d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fece\u011fini g\u00f6rmek bak\u0131m\u0131ndan \u015fu anki geli\u015fmeleri takip etmek ilgi \u00e7ekici olacak.  <\/p>\n

Pakistan gibi \u00fclkelerde ise mevcut salg\u0131n ordu i\u00e7in bir f\u0131rsat kap\u0131s\u0131 te\u015fkil ediyor. Salg\u0131n Pakistan\u2019\u0131 en zay\u0131f oldu\u011fu d\u00f6nemde -b\u00fcy\u00fck bir n\u00fcfusu zay\u0131f bir sa\u011fl\u0131k altyap\u0131s\u0131 ve polis kuvvetiyle y\u00f6netmek zorunda- vururken, Pakistan ordusu \u015fu an politikay\u0131 etkili bir bi\u00e7imde, hatta \u0130mran Han h\u00fck\u00fcmetinin salg\u0131na y\u00f6nelik ilk tutumuyla z\u0131t d\u00fc\u015fmek pahas\u0131na kontrol ediyor. Banglade\u015f ve L\u00fcbnan\u2019da soka\u011fa \u00e7\u0131kma yasa\u011f\u0131n\u0131n uygulanmas\u0131 i\u00e7in orduya \u00e7a\u011fr\u0131 yap\u0131lm\u0131\u015f olsa da iki \u00fclkede de \u015fu an i\u00e7in bir askeri darbe beklenmiyor. Artan pop\u00fclarite, bu s\u00fcrece dahil olan t\u00fcm sil\u00e2hl\u0131 kuvvetler i\u00e7in h\u00e2l\u00e2 bir tali kazan\u00e7 niteli\u011finde olsa da bu pop\u00fclarite ileride politik hedefler i\u00e7in kullan\u0131labilir.<\/p>\n

M\u0131s\u0131r gibi ordunun etkin bir \u015fekilde y\u00f6netimde oldu\u011fu \u00fclkelerde ordunun salg\u0131na y\u00f6nelik ilk ad\u0131m\u0131, sadece kendisinin bu sorun ile \u201cba\u015f edebilece\u011fini\u201d ortaya koymak oldu. M\u0131s\u0131r ordusu 1990\u2019lardaki g\u0131da k\u0131tl\u0131\u011f\u0131 sorununda oldu\u011funa benzer bir \u015fekilde \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131p kendisine bir rol bi\u00e7ti ve Kahire\u2019nin merkezindeki asfalt yollar\u0131 \u201cdezenfenkte\u201d ederek pek de i\u015fe yarar olmayan bir faaliyette bulundu. \u00d6te yandan, e\u011fer Sisi h\u00fck\u00fcmetinin salg\u0131nla m\u00fccadelede etkili olma noktas\u0131nda ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131z kald\u0131\u011f\u0131na inan\u0131l\u0131r ve M\u0131s\u0131r ekonomisi de di\u011fer ekonomiler gibi sert bir darbe yerse, yeni dinamikler ortaya \u00e7\u0131kabilir ve sivil-asker ili\u015fkileri bir kez daha karma\u015f\u0131k h\u00e2le gelebilir. <\/p>\n<\/div>

<\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Ulusal \u00f6l\u00e7ekte salg\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 ortaya konan \u00e7abalar\u0131n b\u00f6lgesel \u00e7apta -ne K\u0130K ne de Arap Ligi [ne de b\u00f6lge a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7ekteki \u0130slam \u0130\u015fbirli\u011fi Te\u015fkilat\u0131 (\u0130\u0130T)] \u00fczerinden- ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmedi\u011fi not edilmeli.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":26959,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","ngg_post_thumbnail":0},"categories":[364],"tags":[],"asf_pub_issue":[10307,10309,10319],"asf_pub_region":[10321,10323],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/14881"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/8"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=14881"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/14881\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":24768,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/14881\/revisions\/24768"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/26959"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=14881"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=14881"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=14881"},{"taxonomy":"asf_pub_issue","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/asf_pub_issue?post=14881"},{"taxonomy":"asf_pub_region","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/asf_pub_region?post=14881"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}