{"id":15028,"date":"2020-05-06T15:48:23","date_gmt":"2020-05-06T12:48:23","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/?p=15028"},"modified":"2020-09-03T16:59:15","modified_gmt":"2020-09-03T13:59:15","slug":"orta-doguda-yeni-bir-bolgesel-duzen-arayisi-gercekler-ve-arzular","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/2020\/05\/06\/orta-doguda-yeni-bir-bolgesel-duzen-arayisi-gercekler-ve-arzular\/","title":{"rendered":"Orta Do\u011fu\u2019da Yeni Bir B\u00f6lgesel D\u00fczen Aray\u0131\u015f\u0131: Ger\u00e7ekler Ve Arzular"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"\" Al Sharq Strategic Research<\/a>      <\/i> 06 May\u0131s 2020<\/span><\/h6><\/div><\/div><\/div>
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\n\t\n\t\t<\/i>\n\t\tPDF olarak indir\t\t\n\t<\/a>\n<\/p>\n<\/h6><\/div><\/div><\/div>

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Uzman G\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fc<\/a>, MENA G\u00dcVENL\u0130K<\/a> \/ \/ B\u00f6lgesel Politika<\/a><\/h6><\/div><\/div><\/div>
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Giri\u015f<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

Orta Do\u011fu ve Kuzey Afrika (MENA) b\u00f6lgesinin g\u00fcvenlik mimarisi bir karma\u015fa i\u00e7erisindedir. Kar\u015f\u0131 devrimci g\u00fc\u00e7ler siyasi f\u0131rt\u0131nalara haz\u0131rlan\u0131rken, ge\u00e7mi\u015fte ge\u00e7erlili\u011fi olan ulusal toplumsal s\u00f6zle\u015fmelerin (\u201csosyal adalet\u201d yerine \u201cucuz \u00e7\u0131karlar\u201d \u00f6neren s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) ve daha geni\u015f anlamda b\u00f6lgesel d\u00fczenin ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131zl\u0131\u011f\u0131 art\u0131k daha fazla gizlenemeyecek bir noktaya gelmi\u015ftir. \u00dcrd\u00fcn, L\u00fcbnan ve Sudan\u2019dan, Irak ve Cezayir\u2019e kadar bir\u00e7ok \u00fclkede halklar, yap\u0131sal d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcmlerin \u00f6zlemini duyarken bu y\u00f6nde \u00e7a\u011fr\u0131lar yapmaya da devam etmektedir.<\/p>\n

B\u00f6lge, \u201cg\u0131da g\u00fcvensizli\u011finden\u201d yetersiz temiz su ve enerji kayna\u011f\u0131na, artan n\u00fcfus, kronik i\u015fsizlik ve iklim de\u011fi\u015fimine kadar \u00e7e\u015fitli maddi ve birbirine ba\u011fl\u0131 zorluklarla kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131yad\u0131r. Mevcut rejimlerin i\u00e7erisinde ordunun rol\u00fc her ge\u00e7en g\u00fcn artmakta ve bu durum y\u00f6netici elitlerin d\u0131\u015far\u0131daki m\u00fcttefiklerinden stratejik \u00f6demeler almas\u0131na yol a\u00e7maktad\u0131r. Otoriter rejimler kendi yaralar\u0131n\u0131 sarmakla me\u015fgul olup \u201cyeniden yap\u0131lanma\u201d tabirini kendi iktidarlar\u0131n\u0131 peki\u015ftirmek i\u00e7in kullanmaktad\u0131r. B\u00f6lgedeki \u00fclkelerden b\u00fcy\u00fck kitlesel g\u00f6\u00e7ler kesintisiz bir \u015fekilde devam etmekte ve bu durum \u201cbeyin g\u00f6\u00e7\u00fcn\u00fc\u201d de tetiklemektedir: 2016\u2019dan bu yana k\u00f6t\u00fcle\u015fen ekonomik durumdan \u00f6t\u00fcr\u00fc 10 bin Tunuslu m\u00fchendisin \u00fclkelerinden ayr\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 belirtilirken,[i]<\/a> bir Gallup raporu da \u00dcrd\u00fcn gen\u00e7li\u011finin y\u00fczde 27\u2019sinin ve \u201cy\u00fcksek e\u011fitim alm\u0131\u015f\u201d n\u00fcfusun y\u00fczde 29\u2019unun \u00fclkelerinden ayr\u0131lmay\u0131 istedi\u011fini ortaya koymaktad\u0131r.[ii]<\/a> Ciddi oranda Irakl\u0131 ve L\u00fcbnanl\u0131n\u0131n da bunun benzerini yapmay\u0131 istedi\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnmek pek de yanl\u0131\u015f olmayacakt\u0131r. Bunun yan\u0131nda b\u00f6lge, b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fckleri ve ak\u0131betleri kimse taraf\u0131ndan tahmin edilemeyen ancak ortadan kald\u0131rmas\u0131 zor silahl\u0131 militan gruplarla dolup ta\u015fmaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n

Mevcut durumda, k\u00f6hnele\u015fmi\u015f siyasi ve ekonomik yap\u0131lar; eski moda \u201cbereket politikalar\u0131\u201d,[iii]<\/a> arkaik bir Leviathan devleti (t\u00fcm siyasi uygulamalar ile muhalefet hareketlerini devletle\u015ftiren ve sivil toplumu millile\u015ftiren[iv]<\/a>) ve k\u00fcl\u00fcst\u00fcr b\u00f6lgesel i\u015f birli\u011fi kurumlar\u0131, kapsaml\u0131 bir d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm ge\u00e7irmeksizin yukar\u0131da bahsedilen zorluklar\u0131n hi\u00e7biriyle ba\u015f edemeyecektir. Uluslararas\u0131 akt\u00f6rler ise ya b\u00f6lgesel stat\u00fckoyu desteklemeye devam etmekte ya da Avrupa\u2019ya g\u00f6\u00e7 ak\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 durdurma yahut \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma alanlar\u0131ndaki \u201cradikalleri\u201d zapt etme veya etkisiz h\u00e2le getirme gibi k\u0131sa vadeli hedeflere odaklanmaktad\u0131r. \u00c7in, Rusya, Avrupa Birli\u011fi (AB), Hindistan ve Amerika Birle\u015fik Devletleri (ABD) b\u00f6lgedeki otoriter rejimleri basmakal\u0131p \u201cistikrar\u0131 destekleme\u201d ve \u201ctoprak b\u00fct\u00fcnl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcne sayg\u0131\u201d gibi haz\u0131r a\u00e7\u0131klamalarla veya \u201ci\u00e7 i\u015flerine kar\u0131\u015fmama politikas\u0131\u201d kisvesi alt\u0131nda desteklemeye devam etmi\u015ftir. Birka\u00e7 di\u011fer uluslararas\u0131 forum ve toplant\u0131 aras\u0131ndan AB ve Arap Birli\u011fi aras\u0131nda tarihte yap\u0131lm\u0131\u015f ilk zirve olan \u015eubat 2019\u2019daki \u015earm el \u015eeyh\u2019te yap\u0131lan zirve yaln\u0131zca bir otoriter liderin uluslararas\u0131 me\u015fruiyetini artt\u0131rmaya yaram\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Hatta Trump y\u00f6netimi b\u00f6lgede otoriter bir diktat\u00f6rle \u00e7al\u0131\u015fma \u015fans\u0131na sahip olmaktan sevin\u00e7 duydu\u011funu gizlemeye dahi \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmam\u0131\u015ft\u0131r.<\/p>\n

Al Sharq Forum da Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki b\u00f6lgesel g\u00fcvenlik mimarisini de\u011ferlendirmek ve gelecekte at\u0131labilecek ad\u0131mlara ili\u015fkin somut \u00f6neriler ortaya koyabilmek amac\u0131yla bir \u00f6zel \u00e7al\u0131\u015fma grubu kurmu\u015ftur.  Bunu yaparken d\u00f6rt ana tema belirlemi\u015ftir: 1. Devlet ve devlet d\u0131\u015f\u0131 dinamikler, 2. b\u00f6lgesellik ve b\u00f6lgesel g\u00fcvenlik kurumlar\u0131, 3. k\u00fcresel ba\u011flamda b\u00f6lgesel d\u00fczen, 4. enerji ve g\u00fcvenlik. Be\u015f ara\u015ft\u0131rmac\u0131n\u0131n ve bir ara\u015ft\u0131rma asistan\u0131n\u0131n yer ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 bu \u00f6zel \u00e7al\u0131\u015fma grubu birka\u00e7 \u00e7al\u0131\u015fma toplant\u0131s\u0131na ev sahipli\u011fi yapm\u0131\u015f ve May\u0131s 2018\u2019de 25 \u00fclkeden \u00fc\u00e7 y\u00fczden fazla uzman\u0131n kat\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fck bir konferans ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirmi\u015ftir. Buna ek olarak, L\u00fcbnan\u2019a; Singapur\u2019a, Rusya\u2019ya, ABD\u2019ye, Bel\u00e7ika\u2019ya ve Katar\u2019a ara\u015ft\u0131rma ziyaretlerinde bulunulmu\u015f ve \u00e7ok say\u0131da akademisyenle, entelekt\u00fcelle, uzmanla ve eski politikac\u0131yla konferans\u0131 takip eden y\u0131l boyunca m\u00fclakatlar ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirilmi\u015ftir. Ayn\u0131 zaman dilimi i\u00e7erisinde \u00f6zel \u00e7al\u0131\u015fma grubu, T\u00fcrk\u00e7e ve \u0130ngilizce \u00e7evirileri de mevcut olacak \u015fekilde toplamda on sekiz uzman g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fc ve analiz yaz\u0131s\u0131 yay\u0131mlam\u0131\u015ft\u0131r.<\/p>\n

[i]<\/a> \u201cOIT: 10 mille ing\u00e9nieurs ont quitt\u00e9 la Tunisie depuis 2016,\u201d Mosa\u00efque FM, 30 Eyl\u00fcl 2018, https:\/\/www.mosaiquefm.net\/fr\/actualite-national-tunisie\/415691\/oit-10-mille-ingenieurs-ont-quitte-la-tunisie-depuis-2016<\/a><\/p>\n

[ii]<\/a> Renad Aljadid , \u201cNearly 20 per cent of Jordanian population wish to migrate to another country \u2014 Gallup report,\u201d The Jordan Times, 20 Aral\u0131k 2018, http:\/\/www.jordantimes.com\/news\/local\/nearly-20-cent-jordanian-population-wish-migrate-another-country-%E2%80%94-gallup-report<\/a><\/p>\n

[iii]<\/a> \u201cA Personal Appraisal of Hassan’s Regime,\u201d The Central Intelligence Agency (Library of the CIA<\/em>), s. 8, Eri\u015fim Tarihi: Kas\u0131m 2019, https:\/\/www.cia.gov\/library\/readingroom\/docs\/CIA-RDP80R01731R002300070008-6.pdf<\/a><\/p>\n

[iv]<\/a> Isam al-Khafaji, \u2018The Arab Left after Glasnost: Who\u2019s Afraid of Bureaustroika?\u201d Middle East Report, No.167, On the Edge of War. Kas\u0131m-Aral\u0131k 1990. s. 32-33.<\/p>\n<\/div>

<\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Orta Do\u011fu ve Kuzey Afrika (MENA) b\u00f6lgesinin g\u00fcvenlik mimarisi bir karma\u015fa i\u00e7erisindedir. Kar\u015f\u0131 devrimci g\u00fc\u00e7ler siyasi f\u0131rt\u0131nalara haz\u0131rlan\u0131rken<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":15106,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","ngg_post_thumbnail":0},"categories":[361,2450],"tags":[2477,5076,9816],"asf_pub_issue":[10319],"asf_pub_region":[10321],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/15028"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=15028"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/15028\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":24714,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/15028\/revisions\/24714"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/15106"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=15028"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=15028"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=15028"},{"taxonomy":"asf_pub_issue","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/asf_pub_issue?post=15028"},{"taxonomy":"asf_pub_region","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/asf_pub_region?post=15028"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}