{"id":25110,"date":"2020-08-31T16:57:37","date_gmt":"2020-08-31T13:57:37","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/?p=25110"},"modified":"2020-09-01T15:01:36","modified_gmt":"2020-09-01T12:01:36","slug":"idlib-htsnin-mikro-devleti-ve-ufukta-beliren-operasyon","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/2020\/08\/31\/idlib-htsnin-mikro-devleti-ve-ufukta-beliren-operasyon\/","title":{"rendered":"\u0130dlib: HT\u015e\u2019nin Mikro Devleti ve Ufukta Beliren Operasyon"},"content":{"rendered":"

Uzunca bir s\u00fcredir Suriye rejimi ve m\u00fcttefikleri \u0130dlib\u2019in g\u00fcneyinde asker\u00ee tahkimat\u0131n\u0131 artt\u0131rm\u0131\u015f durumda. Kuzeybat\u0131 Suriye\u2019de son d\u00f6nemde ya\u015fanan t\u00fcm geli\u015fmeler yeni bir \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma s\u00fcrecinin yakla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n habercisi.<\/em><\/p>\n

Suriye muhalefetinin son kalesi \u0130dlib\u2019de tansiyonun giderek y\u00fckselece\u011fi bir evreye do\u011fru ad\u0131m ad\u0131m yakla\u015f\u0131yoruz.<\/p>\n

Bahar Kalkan\u0131 Operasyonu akabinde T\u00fcrkiye ve Rusya\u2019n\u0131n \u00fczerinde uzla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131, Perspektif\u2019teki \u00f6nceki yaz\u0131mda<\/a> So\u00e7i 2.0 olarak da kabul edilebilece\u011fini belirtti\u011fim 5 Mart tarihli Moskova mutabakat\u0131nda, Halep ile Lazkiye\u2019yi ba\u011flayan stratejik \u00f6nemi haiz M4 yolunun kuzeyi ve g\u00fcneyinde alt\u0131\u015far kilometrelik bir g\u00fcvenli koridor olu\u015fturulmas\u0131 ve bu hatta T\u00fcrk-Rus ortak devriyelerinin yap\u0131lmas\u0131 kararla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Halk\u0131n yo\u011fun tepkisine<\/a> ra\u011fmen ilki 15 Mart\u2019ta ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirilen devriyelerin yirmi be\u015fincisi k\u0131sa bir s\u00fcre \u00f6nce icra edildi.<\/p>\n

Moskova\u2019da \u00fczerinde uzla\u015f\u0131lan ate\u015fkesin s\u00fcreklili\u011fi konusunda ba\u015ftaki karamsarl\u0131\u011fa ve Heyet Tahrir el-\u015eam (HT\u015e) ile di\u011fer muhalif asker\u00ee olu\u015fumlar\u0131n anla\u015fma sonras\u0131ndaki ilk muhalefetine<\/a> ra\u011fmen ate\u015fkese b\u00fcy\u00fck oranda uyuldu ve devriyeler ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. Her ne kadar ilk devriyeler provokasyon tehdidi gerek\u00e7esiyle k\u0131sa kesilmi\u015f<\/a> olsa da bug\u00fcne kadar gelindi.<\/p>\n

Ne var ki Kuzeybat\u0131 Suriye\u2019de son d\u00f6nemde ya\u015fanan geli\u015fmeler yeni bir \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma s\u00fcrecinin yakla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n habercisi. Uzunca bir s\u00fcredir Suriye rejimi ve m\u00fcttefikleri \u0130dlib\u2019in g\u00fcneyinde asker\u00ee tahkimat\u0131n\u0131 artt\u0131rm\u0131\u015f durumda. \u00d6zellikle Cebel El Zaviye ve \u011eab Ovas\u0131 b\u00f6lgesinde asker\u00ee y\u0131\u011f\u0131na\u011f\u0131n artt\u0131\u011f\u0131 biliniyor.<\/p>\n

Y\u0131\u011f\u0131na\u011f\u0131n artt\u0131\u011f\u0131 bu zaman diliminde \u0130dlib\u2019in g\u00fcneyi ayr\u0131ca rejim ve Rus top\u00e7u ate\u015finin hedefi olmu\u015f, bu ihlallere baz\u0131 hava sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131 da e\u015flik etmi\u015fti. \u00d6te yandan Suriye asker\u00ee muhalefeti de olas\u0131 bir sald\u0131r\u0131ya d\u00f6n\u00fck olarak haz\u0131rl\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 artt\u0131rm\u0131\u015f durumda.<\/p>\n

Ortak Devriyelere Sald\u0131r\u0131lar<\/strong><\/p>\n

Yap\u0131lan asker\u00ee tahkimat ve ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen rejim-Rus sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n yan\u0131 s\u0131ra b\u00f6lgedeki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma s\u00fcrecini tetiklemesi beklenen di\u011fer bir \u00f6nemli dinamik de T\u00fcrk-Rus ortak devriyelerine kar\u015f\u0131 ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirilen sald\u0131r\u0131lar.  May\u0131s ay\u0131nda ba\u015flayan<\/a> sald\u0131r\u0131lar Hattab \u015ei\u015fani Ketibeleri ad\u0131ndaki yeni bir olu\u015fumun sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131yla devam etti.<\/p>\n

Suriye sahas\u0131nda k\u0131sa bir s\u00fcre \u00f6ncesine kadar ismi hi\u00e7 duyulmayan bir \u00f6rg\u00fct olan Hattab \u015ei\u015fani Ketibeleri devriyelere ard\u0131 ard\u0131na sald\u0131r\u0131lar ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirip bunlar\u0131 \u00fcstlendi\u011fi a\u00e7\u0131klamalar yay\u0131mlad\u0131.<\/p>\n

\u00d6rg\u00fct ilk olarak 16 Haziran\u2019da ortak devriyeye bir EYP sald\u0131r\u0131s\u0131 ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirdi. Bu sald\u0131r\u0131y\u0131 14 Temmuz\u2019daki yeni bir sald\u0131r\u0131<\/a> takip etti. Sansasyonel bir bombal\u0131 ara\u00e7 sald\u0131r\u0131s\u0131 olan bu sald\u0131r\u0131da 3 Rus askeri yaraland\u0131. Bu sald\u0131r\u0131n\u0131n akabinde \u00f6rg\u00fct, cihadi s\u00f6ylemlerle bezedi\u011fi sofistike bir videoyu<\/a> da dola\u015f\u0131ma da soktu. Dola\u015f\u0131ma sokulan bombal\u0131 ara\u00e7 sald\u0131r\u0131s\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcnt\u00fclerinin bir drone vas\u0131tas\u0131yla kaydedilmi\u015f olmas\u0131 da dikkat celbedici bir durum.<\/p>\n

Yay\u0131mlanan videoda T\u00fcrkiye\u2019yi, devriyeleri ve HT\u015e\u2019yi a\u00e7\u0131k\u00e7a hedef alan I\u015e\u0130Dvari bir s\u00f6yleme sahip Hattab \u015ei\u015fani Ketibeleri, HT\u015e\u2019ye muhalefetiyle bilinen di\u011fer asker\u00ee olu\u015fumlara da devriyeleri engelleme hususunda yeterince faal olmamalar\u0131 nedeniyle sitemde bulunuyor<\/a> ve onlar\u0131 tabiri caizse direni\u015fe \u00e7a\u011f\u0131r\u0131yordu.<\/p>\n

Hattab \u015ei\u015fani Ketibeleri\u2019nin son sald\u0131r\u0131s\u0131 ise 17 A\u011fustos\u2019ta ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. T\u00fcrk-Rus ortak devriyesi s\u0131ras\u0131nda bu kez bir T\u00fcrk z\u0131rhl\u0131 arac\u0131 EYP ile hedef al\u0131nd\u0131. Maddi kay\u0131p d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda herhangi bir kay\u0131p ya\u015fanmad\u0131 bu sald\u0131r\u0131da. Her ne kadar Hattab \u015ei\u015fani Ketibeleri\u2019nin varl\u0131\u011f\u0131 kan\u0131tlanamam\u0131\u015f olsa da devriyeleri hedef alan bu sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n Suriye rejimi ve Rusya\u2019ya, \u0130dlib\u2019e yeni bir sald\u0131r\u0131 ba\u015flatmak i\u00e7in arad\u0131klar\u0131 bahaneyi alt\u0131n tepside sundu\u011fu ifade edilebilir.<\/p>\n

Peki ortak devriyeler konusunda \u0130dlib\u2019in fiili y\u00f6neticisi HT\u015e nerede duruyor ve \u00f6rg\u00fct neden daha radikal olu\u015fumlar taraf\u0131ndan hedef tahtas\u0131na konuluyor?<\/p>\n

HT\u015e ve \u0130dlib: Etkile\u015fimle Gelen D\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm<\/strong><\/p>\n

HT\u015e uzun zamand\u0131r ciddi bir d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm s\u00fcreci i\u00e7erisine girmi\u015f durumda. \u00d6rg\u00fct\u00fcn 2016 yaz\u0131nda \u015eam\u2019\u0131n Fethi Cephesi\u2019ne d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fmesi, daha sonraki s\u00fcre\u00e7te ise Halep\u2019in rejim ve m\u00fcttefiklerine kaybedilmesi sonras\u0131 ya\u015fanan travma, 2017 y\u0131l\u0131nda Astana s\u00fcrecinin ba\u015flamas\u0131 ve ba\u015flayan siyasi s\u00fcrecin muhalif yap\u0131lar aras\u0131ndaki g\u00fcvensizli\u011fi ve problemleri derinle\u015ftirmesi gibi geli\u015fmeler Suriye asker\u00ee muhalefeti aras\u0131nda s\u0131cak \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmaya neden oldu. Ya\u015fanan \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar HT\u015e\u2019nin kurulmas\u0131 ve \u00f6rg\u00fct\u00fcn El Kaide\u2019den kopu\u015fu ile neticelendi.<\/p>\n

Her ne kadar Suriye\u2019de muhaliflerin kapsaml\u0131 bir asker\u00ee birlikteli\u011finin ger\u00e7ekle\u015febilmesi ad\u0131na Nusra Cephesi ilk olarak \u015eam\u2019\u0131n Fethi Cephesi\u2019ne 2017 ba\u015f\u0131nda da HT\u015e\u2019ye d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fm\u00fc\u015f olsa da arzulanan asker\u00ee birliktelik hi\u00e7bir zaman ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmedi. Ya\u015fad\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm ile beraber HT\u015e zaman i\u00e7erisinde daha pragmatik ad\u0131mlar atmaya ba\u015flad\u0131. Gerek i\u00e7 gerekse de d\u0131\u015f \u015fartlar\u0131n \u00f6rg\u00fct\u00fc d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fmeye zorlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 su g\u00f6t\u00fcrmez bir ger\u00e7ek.<\/p>\n

HT\u015e\u2019nin Me\u015fru Bir Akt\u00f6re D\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fme Aray\u0131\u015f\u0131<\/strong><\/p>\n

Zamanla HT\u015e yakla\u015f\u0131k 4 milyon insan\u0131n ya\u015fad\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u0130dlib\u2019de daha \u00e7ok y\u00f6netime odaklanmaya ba\u015flayarak kulland\u0131\u011f\u0131 cihadi retori\u011fi azaltt\u0131 ve daha \u0131l\u0131ml\u0131 bir s\u00f6ylem benimsedi. Daha do\u011fru bir ifadeyle, \u0130dlib\u2019de farkl\u0131 muhalif olu\u015fumlar\u0131n var olmas\u0131, Astana \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmas\u0131zl\u0131k b\u00f6lgelerinin teker teker ele ge\u00e7irilmesi sonras\u0131nda \u0130dlib\u2019deki n\u00fcfusun artmas\u0131 ve buna e\u015flik eden di\u011fer baz\u0131 i\u00e7 ve d\u0131\u015f fakt\u00f6rler \u00f6rg\u00fct \u00fczerindeki bask\u0131y\u0131 artt\u0131rd\u0131. Bu durum da HT\u015e\u2019yi salt asker\u00ee g\u00fc\u00e7 ve ideolojiye dayanmamaya ve r\u0131za \u00fcretimi i\u00e7in muhtelif yollara tevess\u00fcl etmeye zorlad\u0131.<\/p>\n

Halk\u0131n zihnini ve kalbini<\/a> kazanarak i\u00e7teki ve d\u0131\u015ftaki akt\u00f6rlere hitap edebilecek bir h\u00fcviyet kazanma giri\u015fimi i\u00e7erisine girmi\u015f oldu HT\u015e b\u00f6ylelikle. Yani, \u00f6rg\u00fct toplumsal ve siyasal bir me\u015fruiyet aray\u0131\u015f\u0131 i\u00e7erisine girdi. \u00d6rg\u00fct\u00fcn ya\u015fad\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm ABD taraf\u0131ndan dahi g\u00f6zlenmi\u015f durumda. Her ne kadar HT\u015e, h\u00e2l\u00e2 ABD\u2019nin ter\u00f6r \u00f6rg\u00fctleri listesinde olsa da ABD\u2019nin \u00f6rg\u00fcte y\u00f6nelik tavr\u0131n\u0131n yumu\u015fad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yleyebiliriz.<\/p>\n

ABD\u2019nin Suriye \u00f6zel temsilcisi James Jeffrey 2020 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131nda, HT\u015e\u2019nin bir s\u00fcredir uluslararas\u0131 bir tehdit olu\u015fturdu\u011funu g\u00f6rmediklerini belirtmi\u015fti. Jeffrey, HT\u015e\u2019nin Suriye Ordusuna ve Rusya\u2019ya kar\u015f\u0131 tehdit olu\u015fturan ve ABD kabul etmese de kendisini \u201cvatansever muhalif\u201d bir olu\u015fum olarak \u00f6ne s\u00fcren bir yap\u0131 oldu\u011funu da konu\u015fmas\u0131nda dile getirmi\u015fti<\/a>.<\/p>\n

ABD\u2019nin HT\u015e\u2019ye y\u00f6nelik tavr\u0131n\u0131n de\u011fi\u015fti\u011fini g\u00f6steren bir ba\u015fka veri de radikal olarak g\u00f6r\u00fclen Hurras ed-Din gibi \u00f6rg\u00fctlerin mensuplar\u0131n\u0131n hava sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131nda<\/a> hedef al\u0131nmas\u0131na ra\u011fmen, HT\u015e\u2019nin bir s\u00fcredir hedef al\u0131nmamas\u0131. HT\u015e d\u0131\u015f\u0131ndaki muhaliflerin hedef al\u0131nmas\u0131 da \u00f6rg\u00fcte y\u00f6nelik ele\u015ftiri oklar\u0131n\u0131 artt\u0131r\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

HT\u015e Lideri Cevlani\u2019nin Siyasi Bir Lidere D\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fme Hamleleri<\/strong><\/p>\n

Yerelle\u015fme projesi ba\u011flam\u0131nda HT\u015e, d\u0131\u015f \u00fclkelere tehdit olu\u015fturmayan ulusal ve \u0131l\u0131ml\u0131 bir direni\u015f \u00f6rg\u00fct\u00fc oldu\u011funu kan\u0131tlamaya, ter\u00f6r \u00f6rg\u00fctleri listesinden \u00e7\u0131kmaya ve Suriye\u2019nin gelece\u011fini belirlemesi muhtemel bir siyasi anla\u015fmada g\u00f6z ard\u0131 edilemeyecek bir akt\u00f6r olarak koltu\u011funu garanti alt\u0131na almaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

Bu ama\u00e7la \u00f6rg\u00fct lideri Ebu Muhammed el-Cevlani son aylarda \u0130dlib\u2019deki g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcrl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc<\/a> \u00e7ok artt\u0131rd\u0131. Halk\u0131, m\u00fclteci kamplar\u0131n\u0131, b\u00f6lgedeki a\u015firet liderlerini ziyaret ediyor ve dertlerini dinliyor \u00f6rg\u00fct lideri. Dahas\u0131, gazetecilerle bas\u0131n toplant\u0131lar\u0131 d\u00fczenliyor, lokantalarda halka yemek da\u011f\u0131t\u0131yor ve onlarla beraber yemek yiyor. Bu \u015fekilde PR kampanyas\u0131n\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Esasen Cevlani\u2019nin sadece asker\u00ee bir lider olarak g\u00f6r\u00fclmek istemedi\u011fi dile getirilebilir. HT\u015e lideri yapt\u0131klar\u0131yla siyasi bir lider g\u00f6r\u00fcnt\u00fcs\u00fc kazanmaya, kendisini bu \u015fekilde sunmaya da \u00e7abal\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

\u0130dlib\u2019de Do\u011fan Mikro Devlet<\/strong><\/p>\n

De\u011finilmesi gereken bir di\u011fer konu da \u0130dlib\u2019de HT\u015e\u2019nin destekledi\u011fi Kurtulu\u015f H\u00fck\u00fcmeti ad\u0131nda 10 Bakanl\u0131\u011fa<\/a>[1]<\/a> sahip sivil bir h\u00fck\u00fcmetin varl\u0131\u011f\u0131. HT\u015e, 2017 y\u0131l\u0131nda kurulan bu h\u00fck\u00fcmet vas\u0131tas\u0131yla \u0130dlib\u2019i tabiri caizse mikro bir devlet gibi y\u00f6netmeye \u00e7abal\u0131yor. Ancak, bu h\u00fck\u00fcmetin de ciddi sorunlar ya\u015fad\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve halk taraf\u0131ndan defalarca protesto edildi\u011fi bilinmeli. Hatta, ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen protestolar nedeniyle h\u00fck\u00fcmetin kabinesi 2020 y\u0131l\u0131 ba\u015f\u0131nda \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc kez de\u011fi\u015fti<\/a>.<\/p>\n

HT\u015e\u2019nin ya\u015fad\u0131\u011f\u0131 bu ciddi d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm cihadi cenahta b\u00fcy\u00fck bir tepkiye neden oldu. Yap\u0131n\u0131n El Kaide\u2019den kopu\u015funu cihat yolundan bir sapma olarak de\u011ferlendiren daha radikal ki\u015filer HT\u015e\u2019den ayr\u0131larak 2018 \u015eubat\u2019\u0131nda Suriye El Kaidesi olarak bilinen Hurras Ed-Din<\/a>\u2019i kurdular. El Kaide Merkez Y\u00f6netimi ve Ebu Muhammed el-Makdisi gibi baz\u0131 k\u00fcresel cihat ideologlar\u0131 da HT\u015e\u2019yi ya\u015fad\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm ve baz\u0131 eylemleri nedeniyle ele\u015ftiriyorlar<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Bunlar\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda \u0130dlib\u2019de HT\u015e\u2019ye muhalif olan \u00e7e\u015fitli asker\u00ee olu\u015fumlar mevcut. Bu gruplar HT\u015e\u2019den ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z hareket etmeye ba\u015flad\u0131klar\u0131nda HT\u015e\u2019nin bask\u0131 ve sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131na maruz kal\u0131yor. \u00d6rne\u011fin HT\u015e yak\u0131n bir zamanda kendisine muhalif olan olu\u015fumlara, Fesbutu (Sebat Edin) adl\u0131 bir operasyon odas\u0131 kurmalar\u0131 sebebiyle sald\u0131rd\u0131. Bu vesileyle HT\u015e d\u0131\u015f akt\u00f6rlere\/\u00fclkelere a\u015f\u0131r\u0131c\u0131 olu\u015fumlar\u0131 kontrol alt\u0131na ald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6stermeye ve \u0130dlib\u2019de g\u00fcvenlik zafiyeti yaratan de\u011fil, aksine g\u00fcvenlik sa\u011flayan bir yap\u0131 oldu\u011funu kan\u0131tlamaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131yor. Yani, \u00f6rg\u00fct kendisini daha \u0131l\u0131ml\u0131 bir olu\u015fum olarak lanse etmeye \u00e7abal\u0131yor. Daha \u00f6nce de HT\u015e, d\u00fczenledi\u011fi operasyonlarla I\u015e\u0130D h\u00fccrelerine \u00e7ok ciddi bir darbe vurmu\u015ftu \u0130dlib\u2019de.<\/p>\n

Ayr\u0131ca HT\u015e \u0130dlib\u2019deki asker\u00ee durumu tek bir merkezden y\u00f6netme arzusunda. Bu nedenle rejime kar\u015f\u0131 m\u00fccadele etmek isteyen her asker\u00ee grubun kendi kontrol\u00fcndeki Fethul M\u00fcbin operasyon odas\u0131na kat\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 ve buradan hareket etmesini talep ediyor. B\u00f6ylelikle otoritesini peki\u015ftirmeyi ve di\u011fer muhalifleri kontrol alt\u0131nda tutmay\u0131 hedefliyor. Bu durum da beklenebilece\u011fi \u00fczere b\u00f6lgede gerginli\u011fe sebebiyet veriyor.<\/p>\n

Bir ba\u015fka \u00f6nemli husus da \u015fu: Radikal olu\u015fumlar HT\u015e\u2019yi ortak devriyelerden ve Rusya\u2019n\u0131n \u0130dlib\u2019de olmas\u0131ndan sorumlu tutuyor ve \u00f6rg\u00fct\u00fc T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin g\u00fcd\u00fcm\u00fcne girmekle su\u00e7luyorlar. El Kaide \u00e7izgisindeki olu\u015fumlar\u0131n T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin \u0130dlib\u2019deki varl\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan memnun olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir s\u0131r de\u011fil ancak bu yap\u0131lar\u0131n temel problemleri Rusya ile.<\/p>\n

HT\u015e\u2019ye d\u00f6necek olursak \u00f6rg\u00fct Moskova mutabakat\u0131n\u0131 ilk olarak tan\u0131mad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtse de sonraki s\u00fcre\u00e7te bu devriyelere g\u00f6z yummak mecburiyetinde kald\u0131. \u015eu a\u00e7\u0131k ki, HT\u015e \u0130dlib\u2019de siyaset ve asker\u00ee g\u00fc\u00e7 aras\u0131nda bir denge politikas\u0131 takip etmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015fan pragmatik bir \u00f6rg\u00fct olarak temay\u00fcz ediyor. Bunlarla birlikte, HT\u015e T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin \u0130dlib\u2019deki asker\u00ee varl\u0131\u011f\u0131 sebebiyle Ankara ile iyi ge\u00e7inmek mecburiyetinde oldu\u011funun fark\u0131nda. Bu durumun aksine daha radikal olu\u015fumlar temelde \u0130dlib\u2019deki sorunun \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc asker\u00ee olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyor ve olaya ideolojik bir bak\u0131\u015f a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131yla yakla\u015f\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

\u0130dlib\u2019de Ufukta Beliren Operasyona Do\u011fru<\/strong><\/p>\n

Hattab \u015ei\u015fani Ketibelerinin sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131 Esed rejimi ve Rusya i\u00e7in zaten k\u0131r\u0131lgan bir zeminde ilerleyen ate\u015fkes anla\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131 ihlal etmek i\u00e7in bulunmaz bir f\u0131rsat. Devriyelere y\u00f6nelik sald\u0131r\u0131lardan sonra Rusya D\u0131\u015fi\u015fleri Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 S\u00f6zc\u00fcs\u00fc Maria Zakharova 13 A\u011fustos\u2019taki brifinginde ortak devriyelerin ge\u00e7ici olarak ask\u0131ya al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131<\/a> belirtmi\u015fti.<\/p>\n

Bu geli\u015fmenin akabinde icra edilen 25. ortak devriyede de T\u00fcrk Silahl\u0131 Kuvvetleri z\u0131rhl\u0131s\u0131 hedef al\u0131nd\u0131. Devriyeye y\u00f6nelik ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen bu sald\u0131r\u0131dan sonra da Rusya \u0130dlib\u2019de baz\u0131 b\u00f6lgeleri yeniden hedef ald\u0131<\/a>. Bu noktalar bir ba\u011flama oturtuldu\u011funda Rusya ve rejimin kara operasyonunu ba\u015flatmas\u0131 yak\u0131n g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n

Mamafih, \u0130dlib\u2019de geni\u015f kapsaml\u0131 bir rejim-Rus sald\u0131r\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n yap\u0131lmas\u0131 hi\u00e7 de kolay olmayacakt\u0131r. Zira \u0130dlib\u2019deki g\u00fc\u00e7 dengesi bir hayli de\u011fi\u015fmi\u015f durumda. T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin \u0130dlib\u2019de \u00e7ok ciddi bir asker\u00ee y\u0131\u011f\u0131na\u011f\u0131 oldu\u011fu biliniyor. 50\u2019den fazla asker\u00ee noktada askeri bulunan T\u00fcrkiye uzunca bir s\u00fcredir, \u0130dlib\u2019in kuzeyini tabiri caizse fiili bir g\u00fcvenli b\u00f6lgeye<\/a> \u00e7evirme u\u011fra\u015f\u0131nda.<\/p>\n

\u00dclkenin ekonomik ve toplumsal a\u00e7\u0131dan yeni bir m\u00fclteci dalgas\u0131n\u0131 daha kald\u0131ramayaca\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcnde bulunduruldu\u011funda T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin topyek\u00fbn yeni bir asker\u00ee harek\u00e2ta hem T\u00fcrk Silahl\u0131 Kuvvetleri eliyle hem de \u0130dlib\u2019de destekledi\u011fi Suriye Milli Ordusu\u2019na ba\u011fl\u0131 Ulusal Kurtulu\u015f Cephesi unsurlar\u0131 vas\u0131tas\u0131yla cevap verme ihtimali \u00e7ok y\u00fcksek g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n

Ankara, b\u00f6lgedeki stat\u00fckoyu korumak i\u00e7in asker\u00ee g\u00fc\u00e7 unsurlar\u0131na m\u00fcracaat etmekten imtina etmeyecektir. Nitekim 18 A\u011fustos\u2019ta \u0130dlib\u2019de Rusya\u2019n\u0131n bir insans\u0131z hava arac\u0131n\u0131n<\/a> T\u00fcrkiye destekli muhaliflerce d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc iddia edildi. Ertesi g\u00fcn ise HT\u015e kontrol\u00fcndeki Fethul Mubin operasyon odas\u0131n\u0131n \u0130dlib\u2019in g\u00fcneyinde rejim ve Rus mevzilerini a\u011f\u0131r silahlarla hedef ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 farkl\u0131 kaynaklarca aktar\u0131ld\u0131.<\/p>\n

Bunlara ek olarak, Suriye ve Libya sava\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n adeta i\u00e7 i\u00e7e ge\u00e7ti\u011fi<\/a> ve b\u00f6lgesel n\u00fcfuz elde etme sava\u015f\u0131n\u0131n iki farkl\u0131 ve\u00e7hesi oldu\u011fu g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcne al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda \u0130dlib\u2019de Ankara\u2019y\u0131 zor duruma d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrecek bir asker\u00ee operasyonun Libya sahas\u0131nda yank\u0131lanmas\u0131 ihtimal dahilinde. H\u00fclasa, y\u0131llard\u0131r bir k\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm h\u00e2linde olan \u0130dlib, Suriye sava\u015f\u0131 i\u00e7in daha pek \u00e7ok \u015feye gebe.<\/p>\n

___<\/p>\n

<\/a>[1]<\/a> Aymenn Jawad Al-Tamimi, \u201cIdlib and Its Environs: Narrowing Prospects for a Rebel Holdout\u201d, Policy Notes (Washington D.C.: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy, \u015eubat 2020), s.7.<\/p>\n

Bu yaz\u0131 ilk olarak Perspektif\u2019te yay\u0131mlanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r.<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n<\/div>

<\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Uzunca bir s\u00fcredir Suriye rejimi ve m\u00fcttefikleri \u0130dlib\u2019in g\u00fcneyinde asker\u00ee tahkimat\u0131n\u0131 artt\u0131rm\u0131\u015f durumda. Kuzeybat\u0131 Suriye\u2019de son d\u00f6nemde ya\u015fanan t\u00fcm geli\u015fmeler yeni bir \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma s\u00fcrecinin yakla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n habercisi.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":57,"featured_media":25112,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","ngg_post_thumbnail":0},"categories":[7094,14655],"tags":[],"asf_pub_issue":[10313],"asf_pub_region":[10321],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/25110"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/57"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=25110"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/25110\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":25184,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/25110\/revisions\/25184"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/25112"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=25110"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=25110"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=25110"},{"taxonomy":"asf_pub_issue","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/asf_pub_issue?post=25110"},{"taxonomy":"asf_pub_region","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/asf_pub_region?post=25110"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}