{"id":25347,"date":"2020-09-01T16:47:32","date_gmt":"2020-09-01T13:47:32","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/?p=25347"},"modified":"2020-09-15T17:16:26","modified_gmt":"2020-09-15T14:16:26","slug":"misirin-libya-ve-dogu-akdenizdeki-rolunu-nasil-anlayabiliriz","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/2020\/09\/01\/misirin-libya-ve-dogu-akdenizdeki-rolunu-nasil-anlayabiliriz\/","title":{"rendered":"M\u0131s\u0131r\u2019\u0131n Libya ve Do\u011fu Akdeniz\u2019deki Rol\u00fcn\u00fc Nas\u0131l Anlayabiliriz?"},"content":{"rendered":"

M\u0131s\u0131r i\u00e7 i\u015fleri ve devrimin art\u00e7\u0131 etkileri ile son derece me\u015fgul ve kendi i\u00e7ine y\u00f6nelmi\u015f durumda oldu\u011fu i\u00e7in i\u00e7 g\u00fcvenli\u011fin istikrar\u0131 Libya\u2019dan ka\u00e7ak olarak \u00fclkeye sokulan silahlar sebebiyle bozulmakta. 2014 y\u0131l\u0131nda M\u0131s\u0131r, Libya\u2019daki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmaya dahil olma y\u00f6n\u00fcnde son derece kritik bir karar ald\u0131 ancak bunu zay\u0131f ve s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir strateji ile yapt\u0131. M\u0131s\u0131r, askeri operasyonlar\u0131n\u0131 Libya\u2019n\u0131n do\u011fusunda, M\u0131s\u0131r s\u0131n\u0131r\u0131n\u0131n yak\u0131n\u0131nda ba\u015flatan Mare\u015fal Hafter\u2019i destekledi.<\/p>\n

Libya meselesi M\u0131s\u0131r i\u00e7in birka\u00e7 a\u00e7\u0131dan \u00f6nemli ve hassas. Bunlar aras\u0131nda: 1) Libya\u2019daki sava\u015ftan \u00f6nce say\u0131lar\u0131 bir milyona ula\u015fan, M\u0131s\u0131rl\u0131 resmi ve gayriresmi i\u015f g\u00fcc\u00fc, 2) hem kay\u0131tl\u0131 hem kay\u0131ts\u0131z olarak iki \u00fclke aras\u0131ndaki g\u00fcnl\u00fck ticari faaliyet, 3) M\u0131s\u0131r\u2019\u0131n hem i\u00e7 g\u00fcvenli\u011fini hem de Libya ile olan kara ve deniz s\u0131n\u0131rlar\u0131n\u0131 kontrol etmek, 4) M\u0131s\u0131r ile ittifak yapacak bir siyasi rejimin \u00f6nemi ve Libya\u2019n\u0131n i\u00e7 istikrar\u0131n\u0131n g\u00fcvence alt\u0131na al\u0131nmas\u0131, 5) kaynaklar ve \u00fclkedeki servet ve 6) iki \u00fclke aras\u0131ndaki a\u015firetsel ve ailesel uzant\u0131lar.<\/p>\n

M\u0131s\u0131r devleti uzun s\u00fcredir Libya\u2019daki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmay\u0131 Kuzey Sina\u2019daki ve b\u00f6lgesel \u00e7aptaki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar ile ili\u015fkilendiriyor. M\u0131s\u0131r\u2019\u0131n stratejisi, temel hedefi olan \u0130slamc\u0131 gruplar\u0131n M\u0131s\u0131r\u2019\u0131n bat\u0131s\u0131ndan s\u0131zmas\u0131n\u0131 engellemek anlam\u0131nda b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde ba\u015far\u0131l\u0131 oldu. Dahas\u0131, g\u00fcvenlik servisleri M\u0131s\u0131r\u2019daki cihat yanl\u0131s\u0131 gruplar\u0131n Libya\u2019ya uzanmas\u0131 ve M\u0131s\u0131r\u2019\u0131n bat\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n Kuzey Sina\u2019da oldu\u011fu gibi b\u00fcy\u00fck bir sava\u015f alan\u0131na d\u00f6nmesi olas\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 ortadan kald\u0131rd\u0131. M\u0131s\u0131r\u2019a ve M\u0131s\u0131r \u00fczerinden olan silah ka\u00e7ak\u00e7\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131na darbe vurma konusunda da ba\u015far\u0131l\u0131 olundu.  <\/p>\n

M\u0131s\u0131r \u0130\u00e7inde Yeniden Konumlanma<\/strong><\/p>\n

Libya\u2019daki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma, Kahire\u2019yi s\u0131ras\u0131yla Libya\u2019ya ve Do\u011fu Akdeniz\u2019e daha fazla m\u00fcdahil olmaya itti. M\u0131s\u0131r, Libya\u2019daki varl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendirmeye ba\u015flad\u0131 ve Do\u011fu Akdeniz\u2019deki g\u00fc\u00e7 ve g\u00fcvenlik denklemlerini anlamakta ba\u015far\u0131l\u0131 oldu. Bunun sonucunda, deniz kuvvetlerinde \u00f6nemli geli\u015fmeler sa\u011flad\u0131 ve yeniden silahlanmay\u0131, e\u011fitimi ve bir\u00e7ok devletle ortak tatbikatlar d\u00fczenlemeyi i\u00e7eren kapsaml\u0131 bir s\u00fcre\u00e7 ile kendi kapasitesini g\u00fc\u00e7lendirdi. Daha sonra, iki \u00fcs- Muhammed Naguib ve Sidi Barani- in\u015fa ederek \u00fclkenin bat\u0131s\u0131ndaki askeri \u00fcslerini yeniden \u015fekillendirdi ve bu \u00fcslere hem \u00e7ok say\u0131da hem de \u00e7e\u015fitli unsurlardan olu\u015fan birlikler konu\u015fland\u0131rd\u0131. Yeniden silahlanma \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131, M\u0131s\u0131r\u2019\u0131n Avrupa\u2019n\u0131n Do\u011fu Akdeniz\u2019e k\u0131y\u0131da\u015f devletler ile olan diplomatik rol\u00fcyle \u00f6rt\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc ki bu durum M\u0131s\u0131r\u2019\u0131n Libya \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmas\u0131na dair vizyonunu \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kard\u0131.<\/p>\n

\u00d6te yandan, nihai bir soru h\u00e2l\u00e2 ortada duruyor: M\u0131s\u0131r neden T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin anla\u015fma teklifini reddedip Yunanistan ile deniz yetki alanlar\u0131n\u0131n s\u0131n\u0131rland\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 anla\u015fmas\u0131 imzalad\u0131?<\/p>\n

Birincisi, uluslararas\u0131 hukuka g\u00f6re Yunan adalar\u0131n\u0131 sahip olduklar\u0131 co\u011frafi konum ve alan itibar\u0131yla g\u00f6rmezden gelmek imk\u00e2ns\u0131z. Bu adalar\u0131n \u00fczerinde n\u00fcfus olmasa bile baz\u0131 ekonomik yetkilere sahip olunan deniz alanlar\u0131 \u00fcretme haklar\u0131 mevcut. Bu y\u00fczden, Ankara ile Ulusal Mutabakat H\u00fck\u00fcmeti (UMH) aras\u0131ndaki deniz yetki alanlar\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rland\u0131rma anla\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n uluslararas\u0131 hukuk \u00e7er\u00e7evesinde tamamen dayanak bulmas\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7. Nihayetinde, M\u0131s\u0131r da Ankara\u2019n\u0131n yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 anla\u015fmay\u0131 avantaja \u00e7evirerek Yunanistan taraf\u0131na M\u0131s\u0131r ile yapaca\u011f\u0131 anla\u015fman\u0131n \u015fartlar\u0131n\u0131 iyile\u015ftirmesi i\u00e7in bask\u0131 yapt\u0131. En ba\u015ftan beri bu durum M\u0131s\u0131r\u2019\u0131n pozisyonu i\u00e7in b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6neme sahipti. <\/p>\n

\u0130kincisi, M\u0131s\u0131r g\u00fcvenli\u011fe dair ve askeri sebeplerden \u00f6t\u00fcr\u00fc Libya\u2019da ve Do\u011fu Akdeniz\u2019de T\u00fcrkiye\u2019yi uzakla\u015ft\u0131rmak veya yaln\u0131z b\u0131rakmak istiyor. Bu istek, Kahire ile Ankara aras\u0131ndaki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma ve Ankara\u2019n\u0131n M\u00fcsl\u00fcman Karde\u015fler\u2019e olan deste\u011fi ile ilgili. Yunanistan ile yap\u0131lan anla\u015fma, Trablus ile Ankara aras\u0131ndaki askeri ba\u011flant\u0131 yolunu da kesiyor.   <\/p>\n

\u00dc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fcs\u00fc, M\u0131s\u0131r ve Yunanistan aras\u0131ndaki anla\u015fma M\u0131s\u0131r\u2019a baz\u0131 g\u00fcvenceler sunuyor. Bunlar i\u00e7erisinde M\u0131s\u0131r\u2019\u0131n Libya\u2019daki rol\u00fcn\u00fcn g\u00fc\u00e7lendirilmesi, do\u011falgaz \u00e7\u0131karma ve ihracat faaliyetlerinde daha fazla yer almas\u0131 ve Libya\u2019n\u0131n do\u011fusundaki petrol hil\u00e2lindeki istihdam ve kaynak (petrol ve do\u011falgaz) kullan\u0131m\u0131nda daha fazla role sahip olmas\u0131.<\/p>\n

D\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fcs\u00fc, 2015\u2019ten bu yana M\u0131s\u0131r, Akdeniz\u2019de g\u00fcvenli\u011fe ve Avrupa\u2019ya yasad\u0131\u015f\u0131 g\u00f6\u00e7\u00fcn engellenmesine dair rol\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00fc\u00e7lendirmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131yor. Bu da Sisi rejimine Avrupa Birli\u011fi nezdinde daha fazla me\u015fruiyet kazand\u0131rd\u0131 ve uluslararas\u0131 destek sa\u011flad\u0131.  <\/p>\n

Be\u015fincisi, M\u0131s\u0131r Orta Do\u011fu\u2019da yeniden n\u00fcfuzunu geni\u015fletmek istiyor ve Do\u011fu Akdeniz\u2019deki n\u00fcfuzunu da T\u00fcrkiye pahas\u0131na artt\u0131rman\u0131n pe\u015finde. Ankara\u2019n\u0131n Suriye rejimini kaybetmesi veya ma\u011flup etmede ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131z olmas\u0131, ayr\u0131ca M\u0131s\u0131r-BAE-\u0130srail yak\u0131nla\u015fmas\u0131, M\u0131s\u0131r\u2019\u0131n b\u00f6lgede \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma, n\u00fcfuz ve kaynak haritas\u0131na g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir \u015fekilde geri d\u00f6nece\u011fi anlam\u0131na geliyor. <\/p>\n

Alt\u0131nc\u0131s\u0131, Atina ile yap\u0131lan anla\u015fma Avrupa Birli\u011fi\u2019nin deste\u011finden faydalanmak anlam\u0131na geliyor. Bu da Kahire i\u00e7in T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin Libya\u2019daki varl\u0131\u011f\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 m\u00fcttefiklerin ve g\u00fc\u00e7 odaklar\u0131n\u0131n daha fazla harekete ge\u00e7irilmesi demek. S\u00f6z konusu anla\u015fma Ankara ve Avrupa Birli\u011fi aras\u0131nda g\u00fcvenli\u011fe dair, politik ve askeri daha \u00e7ok gerilime yol a\u00e7acak ki bu da M\u0131s\u0131r rejiminin i\u015fine geliyor.<\/p>\n

Yedincisi, anla\u015fma M\u0131s\u0131r ile Libya\u2019daki m\u00fcttefikleri aras\u0131nda gerilim yaratabilir, \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc s\u0131n\u0131rland\u0131rmada Libya\u2019n\u0131n baz\u0131 haklar\u0131 yok say\u0131l\u0131yor. Ancak, durumun b\u00f6yle olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6ylemek i\u00e7in hen\u00fcz erken zira M\u0131s\u0131r, Libya ve Yunanistan aras\u0131ndaki s\u0131n\u0131rland\u0131rma meselesi tekrar m\u00fczakereye konu edilip Libya\u2019n\u0131n me\u015fru haklar\u0131 teslim edilebilir.<\/p>\n

Sekizincisi, e\u011fer anla\u015fma uygulamaya ge\u00e7irilirse Ankara da M\u0131s\u0131r ile olan s\u0131n\u0131rlar\u0131n\u0131 yeniden \u00e7izmeye zorlanacak. Bu da iki taraf aras\u0131nda g\u00f6receli bir uzla\u015fma yolu a\u00e7abilir ancak bu uzla\u015fma Ankara\u2019n\u0131n Libya\u2019daki n\u00fcfuzunu kaybetmesi \u015fart\u0131 alt\u0131nda ger\u00e7ekle\u015fecektir.<\/p>\n

Son olarak, M\u0131s\u0131r\u2019\u0131n mevcut ad\u0131mlar\u0131 Ankara \u00fczerinde b\u00fcy\u00fck bir bask\u0131 olu\u015fturdu. \u00d6yle ki Ankara\u2019n\u0131n Akdeniz\u2019de ve Libya\u2019da askeri bir kaosa yol a\u00e7abilecek \u015fekilde gerilimi t\u0131rmand\u0131rmas\u0131na yol a\u00e7t\u0131. Bu son derece kritik ve tehlikeli bir strateji ancak T\u00fcrk taraf\u0131n\u0131 ya geri \u00e7ekilmeye ya da Akdeniz\u2019de b\u00f6lgesel bir sava\u015fa girmeye zorluyor. B\u00f6yle bir sava\u015f hamlesi de uluslararas\u0131 alanda k\u0131namaya yol a\u00e7acak bir k\u0131rm\u0131z\u0131 \u00e7izgi olarak g\u00f6z\u00fck\u00fcyor. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla, Ankara\u2019n\u0131n Libya\u2019y\u0131 yeni bir Suriye\u2019ye \u00e7evirmesi zor ve mevcut anla\u015fmayla birlikte Ankara ve Kahire d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda yeni taraflar da b\u00f6yle bir olas\u0131 \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmaya kat\u0131lmaya zorlan\u0131yor.<\/p>\n<\/div>

<\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

M\u0131s\u0131r i\u00e7 i\u015fleri ve devrimin art\u00e7\u0131 etkileri ile son derece me\u015fgul ve kendi i\u00e7ine y\u00f6nelmi\u015f durumda oldu\u011fu i\u00e7in i\u00e7 g\u00fcvenli\u011fin istikrar\u0131 Libya\u2019dan ka\u00e7ak olarak \u00fclkeye sokulan silahlar sebebiyle bozulmakta. 2014 y\u0131l\u0131nda M\u0131s\u0131r<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":208,"featured_media":25362,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","ngg_post_thumbnail":0},"categories":[364],"tags":[],"asf_pub_issue":[10305],"asf_pub_region":[10321],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/25347"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/208"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=25347"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/25347\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":25369,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/25347\/revisions\/25369"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/25362"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=25347"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=25347"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=25347"},{"taxonomy":"asf_pub_issue","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/asf_pub_issue?post=25347"},{"taxonomy":"asf_pub_region","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/asf_pub_region?post=25347"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}