{"id":26559,"date":"2020-11-23T12:38:40","date_gmt":"2020-11-23T09:38:40","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/?p=26559"},"modified":"2020-12-02T12:46:08","modified_gmt":"2020-12-02T09:46:08","slug":"bidenin-iran-politikasi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/2020\/11\/23\/bidenin-iran-politikasi\/","title":{"rendered":"Biden\u2019\u0131n \u0130ran Politikas\u0131"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"fusion-fullwidth fullwidth-box fusion-builder-row-1 nonhundred-percent-fullwidth non-hundred-percent-height-scrolling\" style=\"--awb-border-radius-top-left:0px;--awb-border-radius-top-right:0px;--awb-border-radius-bottom-right:0px;--awb-border-radius-bottom-left:0px;\" ><div class=\"fusion-builder-row fusion-row\"><div class=\"fusion-layout-column fusion_builder_column fusion-builder-column-0 fusion_builder_column_1_1 1_1 fusion-one-full fusion-column-first fusion-column-last\" style=\"--awb-padding-top:20px;--awb-padding-right:20px;--awb-padding-bottom:20px;--awb-padding-left:20px;--awb-bg-size:cover;--awb-box-shadow:2px 2px 20px 2px #dddddd;;--awb-margin-bottom:0px;\"><div class=\"fusion-column-wrapper fusion-column-has-shadow fusion-flex-column-wrapper-legacy\"><div class=\"fusion-text fusion-text-1\"><p>2020 ABD ba\u015fkanl\u0131k se\u00e7imleri \u0130ran i\u00e7in \u00f6zel bir \u00f6nem arz ediyordu. \u0130ranl\u0131 liderler sonu\u00e7lara y\u00f6nelik kay\u0131ts\u0131zl\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 ifade etse de Washington\u2019un \u0130ran politikas\u0131ndaki de\u011fi\u015fimin Tahran\u2019da s\u0131cak kar\u015f\u0131lanaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirttiler. Nitekim Trump\u2019\u0131n yeniden se\u00e7ilmesi bir d\u00f6rt y\u0131l daha a\u00e7mazlar ve \u0130ran ekonomisi \u00fczerinde a\u011f\u0131r yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar anlam\u0131na gelecekti. \u00d6te yandan Biden\u2019\u0131n farkl\u0131 s\u00f6yleme ve Trump \u00f6ncesi d\u00f6nemde Obama y\u00f6netiminde \u0130ran ile anla\u015fma deneyimine sahip olarak g\u00f6reve gelmesi bir de\u011fi\u015fim ba\u015flatarak \u0130ran-ABD k\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc \u00e7\u00f6zebilir.<\/p>\n<p>Ba\u015fkan Trump, anla\u015fmay\u0131 kendi ad\u0131yla yeniden markala\u015ft\u0131rma \u00f6nc\u00fcl\u00fcyle Obama d\u00f6neminin \u0130ran n\u00fckleer anla\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131 2018 y\u0131l\u0131nda \u00e7\u00f6pe at\u0131p \u0130ran\u2019a \u201cazami bask\u0131\u201d uygularken Biden ayn\u0131 anla\u015fmaya d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f s\u00f6z\u00fc verdi. Kapsaml\u0131 Ortak Eylem Plan\u0131 (KOEP) sadece son k\u0131rk y\u0131ldaki en b\u00fcy\u00fck at\u0131l\u0131m oldu\u011fu i\u00e7in de\u011fil, ayn\u0131 zamanda Biden\u2019\u0131n \u0130ran konusundaki de\u011fi\u015fimi i\u00e7in de bir turnusol testi g\u00f6revi g\u00f6rerek \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n Washington\u2019la ili\u015fki kurmaya duydu\u011fu ancak Trump taraf\u0131ndan yok edilen g\u00fcveni k\u0131smen onarabilmesi a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan gelecekteki t\u00fcm \u0130ran-ABD ili\u015fkilerinin merkezinde olacak.<\/p>\n<p>Biden\u2019\u0131n Ortado\u011fu\u2019ya y\u00f6nelik s\u00f6ylemi ABD\u2019nin KOEP ve di\u011fer konulardaki \u0130ran politikas\u0131n\u0131 yeniden yap\u0131land\u0131rabilecek bir de\u011fi\u015fime i\u015faret ediyor. Biden Trump\u2019\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131ndan \u201cU\u201d d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fc yaparak ABD\u2019yi KOEP\u2019e d\u00f6nd\u00fcrmeye istekli. \u00d6nerdi\u011fi \u0130ran politikas\u0131 hayata ge\u00e7irilirse Biden \u0130ran\u2019la bir uzla\u015f\u0131ya vard\u0131ktan sonra azami bask\u0131 kampanyas\u0131n\u0131 kald\u0131racak ve Tahran\u2019a y\u00f6nelik uzla\u015fmac\u0131 bir yakla\u015f\u0131m benimseyecek.<\/p>\n<p>Biden\u2019\u0131n Trump\u2019\u0131n KOEP\u2019i ihlal etmesinin yaralar\u0131n\u0131 sarmak ihtiyac\u0131na odaklanacak \u201ckar\u015f\u0131l\u0131kl\u0131 anla\u015fmaya uyma\u201d yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131 \u0130ran i\u00e7in hi\u00e7 de ideal olmasa da normalle\u015fmi\u015f bir ili\u015fki politikas\u0131na y\u00f6nelik bir ge\u00e7i\u015f \u00e7er\u00e7evesi g\u00f6revi g\u00f6rebilir. KOEP\u2019e d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f her ne kadar zor ve muhtemelen uzun bir s\u00fcre\u00e7 olsa da, di\u011fer konularda da daha fazla temas i\u00e7in zemin haz\u0131rlayabilir. Hukuki, teknik ve daha da \u00f6nemlisi siyasi konular b\u00f6yle bir yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131na bela olacak ama hem Washington\u2019un hem de Tahran\u2019\u0131n siyasi irade g\u00f6stermesi halinde bu s\u00fcrecin \u00f6n\u00fcne ge\u00e7ilemeyecektir.<\/p>\n<p>Biden\u2019\u0131n Ortado\u011fu politikas\u0131n\u0131n da \u0130ran\u2019a y\u00f6nelik politikas\u0131na hayati bir etkisi olacak. KOEP\u2019in aksine Trump\u2019\u0131n Ortado\u011fu politikas\u0131ndan U d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fc yap\u0131lmayacak. Ancak s\u00f6ylem ve politikada baz\u0131 de\u011fi\u015fimler olacak. Biden\u2019\u0131n, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n b\u00f6lgesel d\u00fc\u015fman ve rakipleri hakk\u0131ndaki s\u00f6ylemi, mevcut yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131n\u0131n selefinin \u0130ran tak\u0131nt\u0131s\u0131na k\u0131yasla daha dengeli olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Her ne kadar Biden y\u00f6netiminin Ortado\u011fu\u2019daki geleneksel ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131 devletler ve m\u00fcttefiklerle yak\u0131n ili\u015fkilerini s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmesi beklense de iki ana sebepten dolay\u0131 daha dengeli bir yakla\u015f\u0131ma ba\u015fvurmas\u0131 da muhtemel: ABD\u2019nin gereksiz konulardaki do\u011frudan m\u00fcdahalesini azaltmak ve oda\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00c7in\u2019in y\u00fckselen g\u00fcc\u00fcne \u00e7evirmek.<\/p>\n<p>Yine de Ortado\u011fu\u2019da \u0130ran ile ABD aras\u0131ndaki bariz fikir ayr\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131 devam edecektir. Biden\u2019\u0131n s\u00f6ylemi, \u00f6nceli\u011fin Ortado\u011fu\u2019dan \u00e7ok \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n n\u00fckleer konular\u0131na odaklanaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Ancak &nbsp;Biden y\u00f6netimi, Amerika\u2019n\u0131n geleneksel \u0130ran\u2019a bask\u0131 uygulama politikas\u0131n\u0131n yan\u0131 s\u0131ra b\u00f6lgesel faaliyetlerinde de\u011fi\u015fim talep eden s\u00f6ylemini de bir kenara atmayacakt\u0131r. Bununla beraber y\u00f6netiminin ne t\u00fcr de\u011fi\u015fimler pe\u015finde olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6ylemek i\u00e7in hen\u00fcz erken. Buras\u0131 \u00f6nemli \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc ABD\u2019nin \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n m\u00fcdahil oldu\u011fu Irak, L\u00fcbnan, Suriye veya hatta Yemen gibi ana b\u00f6lgesel dosyalardaki menfaatlerini artt\u0131rmak i\u00e7in yapabilece\u011fi fazla bir \u015fey de bulunmamakta.<\/p>\n<p>\u0130ran\u2019\u0131n yeni ABD y\u00f6netimine yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131 Trump\u2019\u0131n \u0130ran politikas\u0131 ve y\u00f6netiminin KOEP\u2019i ele alma bi\u00e7iminin g\u00f6lgesinde kalacak. \u0130ranl\u0131lar Trump\u2019\u0131n s\u0131f\u0131r-toplaml\u0131 oyun yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131ndan uzakla\u015fma hamlesini s\u0131cak kar\u015f\u0131lar ama yeni ili\u015fkilerin zemini ve Biden y\u00f6netiminin \u00fc\u00e7 y\u0131ll\u0131k azami bask\u0131n\u0131n yaralar\u0131n\u0131 sararken KOEP\u2019in ihlaliyle ilgili ne kadar sorumluluk almaya istekli olaca\u011f\u0131 Tahran\u2019\u0131n bu y\u00f6netimle ili\u015fkilerini belirleyecek. B\u00f6lgesel konulara gelince, ABD KOEP vaatlerine d\u00f6nmedi\u011fi ve \u0130ran\u2019a pay\u0131na d\u00fc\u015feni vermedi\u011fi s\u00fcrece \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n b\u00f6lgesel konularda ABD ile ili\u015fki kurma ihtimali son derece d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck olacak. Bu y\u00fczden KOEP prangal\u0131 oldu\u011fu s\u00fcrece \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n b\u00f6lge politikas\u0131nda bir de\u011fi\u015fim \u00f6ng\u00f6rmek zor.<\/p>\n<\/div><div class=\"fusion-clearfix\"><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"","protected":false},"author":111,"featured_media":26833,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","ngg_post_thumbnail":0},"categories":[364],"tags":[],"asf_pub_issue":[],"asf_pub_region":[],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/26559"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/111"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=26559"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/26559\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":26572,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/26559\/revisions\/26572"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/26833"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=26559"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=26559"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=26559"},{"taxonomy":"asf_pub_issue","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/asf_pub_issue?post=26559"},{"taxonomy":"asf_pub_region","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/asf_pub_region?post=26559"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}