{"id":26561,"date":"2020-11-23T12:40:01","date_gmt":"2020-11-23T09:40:01","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/?p=26561"},"modified":"2020-12-02T12:46:11","modified_gmt":"2020-12-02T09:46:11","slug":"paradigma-degisimi-degil-tutarlilik","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/2020\/11\/23\/paradigma-degisimi-degil-tutarlilik\/","title":{"rendered":"Paradigma De\u011fi\u015fimi De\u011fil Tutarl\u0131l\u0131k"},"content":{"rendered":"

T\u00fcm g\u00f6r\u00fcnt\u00fc, konu\u015fma ve iddialara ra\u011fmen Trump\u2019\u0131n Suriye politikalar\u0131 selefininkinden bir kopmay\u0131 temsil etmiyordu. I\u015e\u0130D\u2019le sava\u015f, ABD\u2019nin Suriye Demokratik G\u00fc\u00e7leri\u2019ne (SDG) mali deste\u011fi ve hatta Esed rejimi \u00fczerindeki yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar se\u00e7ilmi\u015f Ba\u015fkan Biden g\u00f6revdeyken ba\u015flat\u0131lm\u0131\u015f politikalard\u0131. Suriye\u2019deki \u0130ran varl\u0131\u011f\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 daha sald\u0131rgan duru\u015fu hari\u00e7 Trump Obama y\u00f6netiminin kendisine b\u0131rakt\u0131\u011f\u0131 vasiyeti yerine getirmede b\u00fcy\u00fck oranda ba\u015far\u0131l\u0131 oldu. Asl\u0131nda Trump y\u00f6netimi son d\u00f6rt y\u0131lda ne kendi \u00f6zel Suriye politikas\u0131n\u0131 geli\u015ftirdi ne de Suriye \u00e7\u0131kmaz\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7\u00f6zebildi. Rusya, T\u00fcrkiye ve di\u011fer b\u00f6lgesel g\u00fc\u00e7lerle yap\u0131lan d\u00fczenleme ve anla\u015fmalar s\u00fcrmekte olan \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmaya s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilir ve adil bir siyasi \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm bulunmas\u0131na yard\u0131m etmedi\u011fi gibi Esed\u2019e kar\u015f\u0131 yap\u0131lan kestirilemeyen anl\u0131k askeri operasyonlar da Esed\u2019in iktidar\u0131 b\u0131rakmaya kar\u015f\u0131 direncini sarsmaya yaramad\u0131.<\/p>\n

Trump\u2019\u0131n aksine yeni se\u00e7ilen ba\u015fkan\u0131n d\u0131\u015f politikas\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fcr\u00fctmede D\u0131\u015fi\u015fleri Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve Ulusal G\u00fcvenlik Kurumu\u2019nu g\u00fc\u00e7lendirmesi bekleniyor. Suriye\u2019de Biden muhtemelen \u00e7o\u011fu Obama y\u00f6netiminden kalma \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma s\u00fcre\u00e7leriyle ilgili tecr\u00fcbesi olan b\u00fcrokratlara g\u00fcvenecek. Bu ge\u00e7i\u015f ekibinin bile\u015fimi daha geni\u015f Ortado\u011fu politikas\u0131n\u0131n d\u0131\u015f hatlar\u0131n\u0131 ortaya \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor ve yap\u0131lacak ilk g\u00f6zlem Biden\u2019\u0131n kampanyas\u0131nda kitlesel olarak g\u00f6n\u00fcll\u00fcl\u00fck yapan ve y\u00f6netimini kat\u0131 bir Esed kar\u015f\u0131t\u0131 politika izlemeye ikna edebileceklerini uman muhalif yanl\u0131s\u0131 Suriyeli Amerikal\u0131 aktivistlerin yoklu\u011fudur. \u0130kinci bir g\u00f6zlem ise Hady Amr (ABD \u0130srail-Filistin M\u00fczakereleri \u00d6zel Temsilci Yard\u0131mc\u0131s\u0131), Dana Stroul (Senato D\u0131\u015f \u0130li\u015fkiler Komitesi K\u0131demli \u00dcyesi), Jeffrey Prescott (Ba\u015fkan Barack Obama\u2019n\u0131n Ulusal G\u00fcvenlik Konseyi\u2019nde \u0130ran, Irak, Suriye ve Basra K\u00f6rfezi devletleri masas\u0131n\u0131n K\u0131demli Direkt\u00f6r\u00fc), Lisa Roman (2013-2015 y\u0131llar\u0131 aras\u0131nda ABD Suriye \u00f6zel temsilcisinin K\u0131demli Dan\u0131\u015fman\u0131 ve 2015-2017 aras\u0131 d\u00f6nemde Ulusal G\u00fcvenlik Konseyi Suriye Masas\u0131 Direkt\u00f6r\u00fc) ve di\u011ferleri gibi KOEP, K\u00fcrt ve demokrasi yanl\u0131s\u0131 eski b\u00fcrokratlar\u0131n atanmas\u0131d\u0131r. Hala kimin D\u0131\u015fi\u015fleri Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve Birle\u015fmi\u015f Milletler (BM) i\u00e7in tayin edilece\u011fini g\u00f6rmek i\u00e7in birka\u00e7 hafta daha beklememiz gerekiyor ama genel e\u011filim ABD\u2019nin Suriye\u2019deki diplomasisini canland\u0131raca\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcnde.<\/p>\n

ABD\u2019nin yeni Suriye ekibinin performans\u0131 d\u00f6rt cephede s\u0131nanacak. Birincisi, siyasi \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcme y\u00f6nelik m\u00fczakerelerde ciddi bir ilerleme kaydetmek. \u0130kincisi, Kuzeydo\u011fu Suriye\u2019deki yerel m\u00fcttefikleri i\u00e7in s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilir bir varl\u0131k sahas\u0131 kurmak. \u00dc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fcs\u00fc, Amerikan askerlerinin m\u00fcteakiben Suriye\u2019den \u00e7ekilmesini y\u00f6netmek. D\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fcs\u00fc, Suriye halk\u0131n\u0131 incitmeden veya Rusya yahut Esed rejiminden makul tavizler koparma \u015fans\u0131n\u0131 zedelemeden kapsaml\u0131 ve sorumlu bir ekonomik yapt\u0131r\u0131m politikas\u0131 y\u00fcr\u00fctmek. Bu d\u00f6rt cephede ABD d\u0131\u015f diplomasisi Rusya, T\u00fcrkiye, \u0130ran, Arap bloku ve \u0130srail\u2019in \u00e7at\u0131\u015fan hedefleri aras\u0131nda beceriyle dola\u015fmak zorunda kalacak.<\/p>\n

Kampanyas\u0131 s\u0131ras\u0131nda Biden\u2019\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fck d\u0131\u015f politika a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131 ABD diplomasisini d\u00fcnya siyasetinde yeniden etkinle\u015ftirip demokrasi i\u00e7in k\u00fcresel bir ittifaka \u00f6nc\u00fcl\u00fck etme etraf\u0131nda dola\u015f\u0131yordu. \u0130ran n\u00fckleer anla\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131 yeniden ba\u015flatma, NATO\u2019yu yeniden birle\u015ftirme, ABD\u2019nin m\u00fcttefiki olan (ba\u015fta SDG) yerel devlet d\u0131\u015f\u0131 akt\u00f6rlerin varl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 koruma, demokrasiyi te\u015fvik edip insan haklar\u0131n\u0131 koruma iste\u011fi gibi s\u00f6ylemler ABD\u2019nin Avrupa\u2019daki m\u00fcttefiklerinde iyi bir yank\u0131 uyand\u0131r\u0131yor olsa da Ortado\u011fu\u2019daki b\u00f6lgesel dost ve d\u00fc\u015fmanlar\u0131yla gerilimleri de alevlendirebilir. \u00d6rne\u011fin, ABD\u2019nin KOEP\u2019e d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fc Ankara ve Moskova\u2019y\u0131 memnun ederken Tel Aviv, Riyad ve Abu Dabi\u2019yi \u00f6fkelendirecektir. Benzer \u015fekilde Suriye Demokratik G\u00fc\u00e7leri\u2019nin Kuzeydo\u011fu Suriye \u00fczerindeki s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilir kontrol\u00fcn\u00fc korumak Arap blokunun T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin h\u0131rslar\u0131n\u0131 denetleme isteklerini tatmin edebilir ama bu, zaten gergin olan ABD-T\u00fcrkiye ili\u015fkilerine daha fazla zarar verecektir.<\/p>\n

Bu zorluklar\u0131 a\u015fmak i\u00e7in Biden y\u00f6netimi b\u00fcy\u00fck ihtimalle Moskova ile ikili diyalo\u011fu yeniden ba\u015flatacak. Cenevre Bildirisi, 2254 say\u0131l\u0131 BMGK karar\u0131, Suriye\u2019nin kimyasal silahlar\u0131n\u0131n teslimi anla\u015fmas\u0131 ve F\u0131rat \u00e7evresindeki n\u00fcfuz alanlar\u0131n\u0131n belirlenmesi gibi Suriye konusundaki en kal\u0131c\u0131 ABD-Rusya d\u00fczenlemeleri Obama\u2019n\u0131n ba\u015fkanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u0131ras\u0131nda yap\u0131lm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Ayn\u0131 ad\u0131mlar\u0131 izleyen yeni ABD diplomasi heyeti Suriye\u2019de bir siyasi \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm i\u00e7in Rusya ile b\u00fcy\u00fck bir uzla\u015f\u0131 aray\u0131\u015f\u0131na girecektir. ABD, yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n kademeli olarak gev\u015fetilmesi kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131nda sonunda hem muhalefet hem de Esed rejimi i\u00e7in sembolik bir zaferle biten bir \u201cuzla\u015f\u0131\u201d s\u00fcrecinin sonucunu tan\u0131yabilir.<\/p>\n

T\u00fcrkiye konusunda Amerikan diplomasisi daha ciddi bir zorlukla kar\u015f\u0131la\u015facak. Biden\u2019\u0131n Bar\u0131\u015f P\u0131nar\u0131 Operasyonu s\u0131ras\u0131nda Trump\u2019\u0131n K\u00fcrtlere ABD deste\u011fi sunmamas\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fcksek sesle ele\u015ftirmesi ve AK Parti kar\u015f\u0131t\u0131 son a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131 T\u00fcrk y\u00f6netimini derinden kayg\u0131land\u0131r\u0131p ABD\u2019nin Suriye\u2019deki niyetleri konusunda kayda de\u011fer \u015f\u00fcpheler uyand\u0131rd\u0131. Yine de Ankara ile Washington aras\u0131ndaki karma\u015f\u0131k ili\u015fkilerin k\u00f6kleri Suriye\u2019nin \u00f6tesine uzan\u0131yor ve Biden NATO \u00fcyeleri aras\u0131ndaki g\u00fcveni koruma ve onarma konusunda ciddiyse \u015fayet, ABD\u2019nin T\u00fcrkiye ile bir orta yol bulmas\u0131 gerekecek.<\/p>\n

Son olarak \u0130ran konusunda, ABD y\u00f6netiminin \u00e7ok ciddi finansal kaynaklar\u0131n\u0131 ay\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n Levant b\u00f6lgesinde n\u00fcfuzunu daha da kal\u0131c\u0131 hale getirmesini engelleme giri\u015fiminin hi\u00e7bir yolu yok ki KOEP\u2019in Tahran\u2019a sundu\u011fu imk\u00e2n da tam olarak buydu. Biden se\u00e7im kampanyas\u0131nda ABD\u2019deki Suriye diasporas\u0131na \u0130ran\u2019la Suriye halk\u0131n\u0131n aleyhine olabilecek yeni bir anla\u015fma yapmayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131n s\u00f6z\u00fcn\u00fc vermi\u015fti. Ancak ekibi hen\u00fcz b\u00f6ylesine h\u0131rsl\u0131 bir hedefe ula\u015fmak amac\u0131yla ne Suriye muhalefetini ne de \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n b\u00f6lgesel d\u00fc\u015fmanlar\u0131n\u0131 ikna edecek g\u00fcvenilir ve kapsaml\u0131 bir \u00e7er\u00e7eve sunmad\u0131.<\/p>\n

Biden, I\u015e\u0130D\u2019in toprak hakimiyetinin bitirilmesi d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda 2016 sonras\u0131 \u00e7o\u011fu \u00f6zelli\u011fini koruyan bir dosya devral\u0131yor ve ba\u015fkanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00f6neminde ABD\u2019nin Suriye politikas\u0131n\u0131n herhangi bir ciddi de\u011fi\u015fim ge\u00e7irece\u011fine ili\u015fkin hi\u00e7bir g\u00f6sterge yok. Fakat Trump\u2019\u0131n zikzaklar\u0131na k\u0131yasla daha fazla tutarl\u0131l\u0131k kazanarak di\u011fer akt\u00f6rlerin daha sakin ve pragmatik politikalar geli\u015ftirmesine izin verecek ve b\u00f6ylece mevcut \u015fiddet sarmal\u0131na ger\u00e7ek\u00e7i bir son verilmesi \u015fans\u0131 da artm\u0131\u015f olacak. Biden\u2019\u0131n birincil hedefi Amerika\u2019n\u0131n uluslararas\u0131 sahnedeki liderli\u011fini onarmak ise Suriye sahas\u0131, \u00f6nc\u00fcl\u00fck etme, m\u00fcttefiklerin \u00e7at\u0131\u015fan politikalar\u0131n\u0131 koordine etme ve d\u00fc\u015fman ve rakipleri kontrol alt\u0131nda tutma becerisini g\u00f6sterece\u011fi bir sahne olmal\u0131d\u0131r. Y\u00f6netiminin bu f\u0131rsat\u0131 de\u011ferlendirip de\u011ferlendiremeyece\u011fini ise sadece zaman g\u00f6sterebilir.<\/p>\n<\/div>

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