{"id":27749,"date":"2021-04-16T13:26:46","date_gmt":"2021-04-16T10:26:46","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/?p=27749"},"modified":"2021-04-26T13:29:39","modified_gmt":"2021-04-26T10:29:39","slug":"suudi-arabistan-yemenden-onurlu-bir-cikis-yapabilir-mi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/2021\/04\/16\/suudi-arabistan-yemenden-onurlu-bir-cikis-yapabilir-mi\/","title":{"rendered":"Suudi Arabistan Yemen\u2019den Onurlu Bir \u00c7\u0131k\u0131\u015f Yapabilir mi?"},"content":{"rendered":"

(Bu metin \u0130ngilizce orijinal versiyonundan terc\u00fcme edilmi\u015ftir.)<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

Suudi Arabistan Krall\u0131\u011f\u0131\u2019n\u0131n Yemen\u2019de Kararl\u0131 F\u0131rt\u0131na Operasyonu\u2019nu ba\u015flatmas\u0131n\u0131n \u00fczerinden 6 y\u0131ldan fazla bir zaman ge\u00e7ti. Bug\u00fcn Suudi Arabistan \u00f6nc\u00fcl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcndeki askeri koalisyonun, Riyad\u2019\u0131n Mart 2015\u2019teki ana hedeflerinden<\/a> biri olan Husi isyanc\u0131lar\u0131 yenme konusunda ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131z oldu\u011fu olduk\u00e7a a\u00e7\u0131k. Bask\u0131n Husi milis grubu Ensarullah, h\u00e2lihaz\u0131rda Sanaa ile Yemen vatanda\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fck bir \u00e7o\u011funlu\u011funun ya\u015fad\u0131\u011f\u0131 kuzeybat\u0131 b\u00f6lgesini kontrol ediyor. Ensarullah\u2019\u0131n toprak kazan\u0131mlar\u0131 ile Suudi Arabistan\u2019a d\u00f6n\u00fck olarak d\u00fczenlemeye devam etti\u011fi roket ve S\u0130HA sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131<\/a> Husilerin kendilerini neden kendinden emin ve c\u00fcretk\u00e2r hissetti\u011fini a\u00e7\u0131kl\u0131yor. Basit\u00e7e ifade etmek gerekirse Husiler bu sava\u015f\u0131 \u201ckazan\u0131yor.\u201d<\/p>\n

Bu ba\u011flamda Riyad, Yemen batakl\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan kendisini onurlu hissetmeye olanak tan\u0131yacak bir tarzda \u00e7\u0131kmak<\/a> istiyor. Krall\u0131k i\u00e7in sava\u015f\u0131n uzamas\u0131 ekonomik \u00e7\u0131karlar, milli g\u00fcvenlik ve uluslararas\u0131 itibar noktas\u0131nda maliyetli olur. Ayn\u0131 zamanda Washington\u2019daki yeni y\u00f6netim de Yemen krizinin yat\u0131\u015fmas\u0131ndan yana oldu\u011fu i\u00e7in Riyad en \u00f6nemli bat\u0131l\u0131 m\u00fcttefikinin \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmay\u0131 sonland\u0131rma y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki daha yo\u011fun bask\u0131s\u0131 alt\u0131nda. Bu hususlar hem Suudi Arabistan\u2019\u0131n ge\u00e7en ayki ate\u015fkes teklifini<\/a> hem de Krall\u0131k\u2019\u0131n Yemen konusunda Umman Sultanl\u0131\u011f\u0131<\/a> (Husi isyanc\u0131lar, Suudi Arabistan ve Bat\u0131 aras\u0131nda diplomatik k\u00f6pr\u00fc<\/a> kuran) ile temaslar\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamaya yard\u0131mc\u0131 oluyor.<\/p>\n

Ancak Husiler Suudi rakipleri i\u00e7in hi\u00e7bir i\u015fi kolayla\u015ft\u0131rm\u0131yor. Ge\u00e7en ay Husiler Riyad\u2019\u0131n ate\u015fkes teklifini reddedip hidrokarbon zengini Marib\u2019i ele ge\u00e7irmeye d\u00f6n\u00fck operasyonlar\u0131n\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc ki ba\u015fard\u0131klar\u0131nda Kuzey Yemen resmen \u0130ran destekli g\u00fc\u00e7lerin kontrol\u00fcne girmi\u015f olacak. Ensarullah Suudi Arabistan taraf\u0131n\u0131n zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve artan k\u0131r\u0131lganl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 hissediyor. Husiler zaman\u0131n, m\u00fczakereler \u00f6ncesi Yemen\u2019deki g\u00fc\u00e7 dengesini kendi lehlerine daha da d\u00f6nd\u00fcrmek i\u00e7in daha fazla askeri ilerlemeleri i\u00e7in uygun oldu\u011funa inan\u0131yor. Suudiler hi\u00e7 ku\u015fkusuz Yemen\u2019deki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmaya son vermek istiyor ama kom\u015fu \u00fclkedeki vatanda\u015flar\u0131n y\u00fczde 80\u2019inin<\/a>, \u0130ran sponsorlu\u011fundaki milislerin y\u00f6netiminde oldu\u011fu bir \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f kendileri i\u00e7in son derece a\u015fa\u011f\u0131lay\u0131c\u0131 olur. Ge\u00e7en ay T\u00fcrkiye Cumhurba\u015fkan\u0131 Recep Tayyip Erdo\u011fan\u2019\u0131n yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir a\u00e7\u0131klamaya<\/a> g\u00f6re T\u00fcrk S\u0130HA\u2019lar\u0131n\u0131n Suudiler aras\u0131ndaki cazibesi giderek art\u0131yor. Riyad S\u0130HA\u2019lar i\u00e7in Ankara\u2019ya y\u00fcz\u00fcn\u00fc d\u00f6nerek belirli Bat\u0131l\u0131 h\u00fck\u00fcmetlerin Suudi Arabistan \u00fczerindeki silah ambargolar\u0131n\u0131 bypass edebilir. Fakat Suudi Arabistan\u2019\u0131n T\u00fcrk S\u0130HA\u2019lar\u0131n\u0131 almas\u0131n\u0131n Yemen\u2019deki g\u00fc\u00e7 dengesini Riyad lehine \u00e7evirip \u00e7evirmeyece\u011fi netlikten uzak.<\/p>\n

Bu noktada \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma s\u00fcr\u00fcyor \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc Suudiler ile Husilerin ate\u015fkes talepleri aras\u0131nda hen\u00fcz kapanmam\u0131\u015f bir a\u00e7\u0131k var. Riyad Yemen\u2019de Birle\u015fmi\u015f Milletler (BM) g\u00f6zetiminde \u00fclke geneli bir ate\u015fkesten yana ve Suudi h\u00fck\u00fcmeti Yemen\u2019in ba\u015fkentindeki uluslararas\u0131 havaliman\u0131na uygulanan abluka ve Hudeyde liman\u0131ndan baz\u0131 ithal \u00fcr\u00fcnlerin ge\u00e7i\u015fine izin vermeye ili\u015fkin belirli tavizlerde<\/a> bulunaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6nerdi. Fakat \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmada olduk\u00e7a y\u00fcksek kald\u0131ra\u00e7 g\u00fcc\u00fc olan Ensarullah bu \u015fartlar\u0131 kabul etmedi. \u0130ran destekli isyanc\u0131lara g\u00f6re Suudilerin mart ay\u0131nda yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 teklif \u201cyeni bir \u015fey<\/a>\u201d i\u00e7ermiyordu. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla, tahmin edilece\u011fi \u00fczere bu teklifi reddettiler. Nesnel olarak bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda Husiler, Suudilerin bu y\u0131lki teklifinin Riyad\u2019\u0131n ge\u00e7en sene yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 teklifin revize<\/a> edilmi\u015f bir versiyonundan ibaret oldu\u011funa i\u015faret etmede hakl\u0131. Husilere g\u00f6re herhangi bir ate\u015fkesin uygulanabilmesi i\u00e7in \u00f6nce Yemen ablukas\u0131n\u0131n tamamen kald\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131<\/a> gerekiyor. Suudi Arabistan\u2019\u0131n ablukay\u0131 k\u0131smi olarak kald\u0131rmas\u0131 Ensarullah\u2019\u0131n silah b\u0131rakmadan \u00f6nce Riyad\u2019\u0131n kar\u015f\u0131lamas\u0131n\u0131 \u015fart ko\u015ftu\u011fu taleplerini kar\u015f\u0131lamayacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n

Marib ve B\u00fcy\u00fck B\u00f6lgesel Resim<\/strong><\/p>\n

Marib sava\u015f\u0131 s\u00fcrerken uzmanlar bu \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n i\u00e7 sava\u015f\u0131n politik bir \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcme kavu\u015fturulmas\u0131 s\u00fcrecini derinden etkileyece\u011finde mutab\u0131k. Wilson International Center for Scholars\u2019\u0131n Ortado\u011fu program\u0131nda ara\u015ft\u0131rmac\u0131 olan David Ottaway; \u201c\u2026Bu noktada Husiler Marib \u015fehrini ele ge\u00e7irmede ba\u015far\u0131l\u0131 veya ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131z olana kadar ufukta hi\u00e7bir ciddi m\u00fczakere g\u00f6r\u00fcnm\u00fcyor.\u201d diye<\/a> yazd\u0131. France 24 kanal\u0131na konu\u015fan Sanaa\u2019daki bir Husi m\u00fczakereci<\/a> de \u201c\u2026Marib yoksulla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f Yemen halk\u0131n\u0131n piyasa fiyatlar\u0131ndan petrol ve do\u011falgaz almas\u0131n\u0131 engelleyen abluka nedeniyle bizim i\u00e7in hayati \u00f6nemde\u201d ve Husiler \u201c[Suudi ablukas\u0131n\u0131] kuvvetle kald\u0131rmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmak ve kald\u0131rmak zorunda\u201d dedi.<\/p>\n

Ensarullah Marib\u2019i ele ge\u00e7irebilirse (ki bu, BM\u2019nin tan\u0131d\u0131\u011f\u0131, Cumhurba\u015fkan\u0131 Abdurabbuh Mansur Hadi liderli\u011findeki h\u00fck\u00fcmetin kontrol\u00fcnde hi\u00e7bir kuzey topra\u011f\u0131 kalmamas\u0131yla<\/a> sonu\u00e7lanacak) Husiler kendilerini ba\u015fka taleplerde bulunmak i\u00e7in daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir konumda bulacak. Sanaa Center for Strategic Studies b\u00fcnyesinde k\u0131demli ara\u015ft\u0131rmac\u0131 olan Abdulgani \u0130ryani\u2019nin deyimiyle<\/a> Marib\u2019in Husilerin eline d\u00fc\u015fmesi \u201culuslararas\u0131 toplumun tan\u0131d\u0131\u011f\u0131 h\u00fck\u00fcmetin kafas\u0131na giren son kur\u015fun\u201d olacak. B\u00f6yle bir senaryoda Riyad\u2019\u0131n Hadi h\u00fck\u00fcmetini resmi olarak desteklemeye devam m\u0131 edece\u011fi (ki art\u0131k hayali bir varl\u0131k olarak tan\u0131mlanabilecek) yoksa Abu Dabi sponsorlu\u011fundaki G\u00fcney Ge\u00e7ici Konseyi\u2019ne G\u00fcney Yemen\u2019in idari organ\u0131 olarak me\u015fruiyet mi tan\u0131yaca\u011f\u0131 konusunda zor bir karar vermesi gerekecek.<\/p>\n

Bununla birlikte Hadi yanl\u0131s\u0131\/Husi kar\u015f\u0131t\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7ler Ensarullah\u2019\u0131n Marib\u2019i ele ge\u00e7irmesini engellerse Husi sava\u015f\u00e7\u0131lar Yemenli ve Suudi rakipleriyle g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelere daha erken ba\u015flamaya daha istekli hale gelebilir. Fakat kent i\u00e7in yo\u011fun sava\u015f hararetlenmeye devam etti\u011fi s\u00fcrece Suudiler de Yemen\u2019in Suudi s\u0131n\u0131r\u0131na yak\u0131n bu kaynak zengini b\u00f6lgesinin Husilerin eline ge\u00e7mesini \u00f6nlemeye y\u00f6nelik bombalama operasyonlar\u0131n\u0131 muhtemelen s\u00fcrd\u00fcrecek.<\/p>\n

Yemen\u2019deki durum ABD-\u0130ran ili\u015fkilerinin durumuna derinden ba\u011fl\u0131. Tahran\u2019\u0131n bak\u0131\u015f a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131na g\u00f6re Biden y\u00f6netimi Trump\u2019\u0131n \u201cazami bask\u0131\u201d kampanyas\u0131n\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Bu durum de\u011fi\u015fmedi\u011fi s\u00fcrece \u0130slam Cumhuriyeti\u2019nin Yemen \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131 Washington\u2019a mesaj vermek i\u00e7in istismar etmeye devam ederken Biden y\u00f6netimine de Tahran\u2019a tavizler vermesi i\u00e7in daha \u00e7ok bask\u0131 uygulayaca\u011f\u0131 rahatl\u0131kla s\u00f6ylenebilir. Ayn\u0131 \u015fekilde ABD, \u0130slam Cumhuriyeti \u00fczerindeki bask\u0131y\u0131 hafifletirse Yemen\u2019in, Tahran\u2019\u0131n baz\u0131 tavizler verdi\u011fi b\u00f6lgesel konu olmas\u0131n\u0131 beklemek makul olacakt\u0131r. Yemen \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n tarihsel olarak \u00e7ok d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck n\u00fcfuza<\/a> sahip oldu\u011fu ve \u0130ran\u2019dan ziyade di\u011fer Arap \u00fclkelerine yak\u0131n olmu\u015f bir \u00fclke. Yemen bug\u00fcn Arap b\u00f6lgesindeki L\u00fcbnan, Suriye ve Irak gibi \u0130ranl\u0131lar\u0131n kaybedecek\/kazanacak daha \u00e7ok \u015feylerinin oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc di\u011fer s\u0131cak noktalara k\u0131yasla \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n stratejik \u00e7\u0131karlar\u0131 i\u00e7in \u00e7ok daha az \u00f6nem arz ediyor. Bu y\u00fczden Tahran\u2019\u0131n yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n hafifletilmesi bak\u0131m\u0131ndan Washington\u2019dan bir \u015feyler kazanmak i\u00e7in Yemen\u2019deki \u201ck\u00f6t\u00fcc\u00fcl<\/a>\u201d faaliyetlerini bitirmesi veya en az\u0131ndan azaltmas\u0131 beklenebilir.<\/p>\n

Gelecek a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan Yemen\u2019de bar\u0131\u015fa giden yol karma\u015f\u0131k ve zorlu olacak. Umman\u2019\u0131n bu sava\u015f\u0131 bitirmeye y\u00f6nelik arabuluculuk \u00e7abalar\u0131n\u0131n hen\u00fcz bir ilerleme kaydedememi\u015f olmas\u0131 Yemen\u2019de bar\u0131\u015f\u0131 tesis etmenin ne derece zor oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor. Husilerle Suudileri ate\u015fkes \u015fartlar\u0131 ve nihayetinde siyasi bir uzla\u015f\u0131 \u00fczerinde mutab\u0131k kalabilecekleri bir noktaya getirmek muhtemelen diplomatik \u00e7abalar\u0131n s\u00fcrmesini gerektirecek. Hi\u00e7 ku\u015fkusuz Biden y\u00f6netimi sava\u015ftan tahrip olmu\u015f derin \u00e7atlaklar\u0131 olan bu \u00fclkedeki durumla ilgilenirken Washington\u2019\u0131n ayr\u0131ca y\u00fczle\u015fmesi gereken zorlu ger\u00e7eklikler var. Bunlara Suudi Arabistan\u2019a silah sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131 durdurman\u0131n tek ba\u015f\u0131na Yemen\u2019deki sava\u015f\u0131 bitiremeyece\u011fi, ABD\u2019nin Husilere kar\u015f\u0131 hi\u00e7bir kald\u0131rac\u0131n\u0131n olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve Ensarullah\u2019a kar\u015f\u0131 tam bir askeri zafer kazanma gibi bir se\u00e7ene\u011fin bulunmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 gibi ger\u00e7ekler d\u00e2hil. <\/p>\n

Ger\u00e7ek\u00e7i olmak gerekirse Yemen\u2019in \u00fclkedeki t\u00fcm b\u00fcy\u00fck akt\u00f6rlerin masada yer bulabildi\u011fi bir g\u00fc\u00e7 payla\u015f\u0131m\u0131 anla\u015fmas\u0131na ihtiyac\u0131 olacak. Fakat \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmadaki baz\u0131 akt\u00f6rler, en ba\u015fta da Husiler, sava\u015fman\u0131n m\u00fczakereden daha kazan\u00e7l\u0131 olaca\u011f\u0131na inan\u0131rsa 2014\/2015\u2019ten beri Yemen\u2019i sarmalayan bu korkun\u00e7 sava\u015f devam edecek. D\u00fcnyan\u0131n en k\u00f6t\u00fc insani felaketi de \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar durmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00fcrece anlaml\u0131 bir \u015fekilde ele al\u0131nmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in maalesef sona ermeyecek. G\u00fcn\u00fcn sonunda Yemen\u2019e kal\u0131c\u0131 bar\u0131\u015f ve istikrar getirmek sava\u015ftaki t\u00fcm b\u00fcy\u00fck oyuncular\u0131 onurlu ve g\u00fcvende hissetmesine imk\u00e2n verecek bir \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm gerektirecek. T\u00fcm kilit akt\u00f6rlerin sorunlar\u0131 ve me\u015fru g\u00fcvenlik kayg\u0131lar\u0131 bir g\u00fc\u00e7 payla\u015f\u0131m\u0131 anla\u015fmas\u0131yla birlikte ele al\u0131nmal\u0131. \u00c7at\u0131\u015fmay\u0131 baz\u0131 akt\u00f6rlerin a\u015fa\u011f\u0131lanm\u0131\u015f hissedece\u011fi \u015fekillerde \u00e7\u00f6zmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmak Yemen\u2019de kal\u0131c\u0131 bir bar\u0131\u015f sa\u011flayamayacak.<\/p>\n<\/div>

<\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Suudi Arabistan Krall\u0131\u011f\u0131\u2019n\u0131n Yemen\u2019de Kararl\u0131 F\u0131rt\u0131na Operasyonu\u2019nu ba\u015flatmas\u0131n\u0131n \u00fczerinden 6 y\u0131ldan fazla bir zaman ge\u00e7ti. Bug\u00fcn Suudi Arabistan \u00f6nc\u00fcl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcndeki askeri koalisyonun, Riyad\u2019\u0131n Mart 2015\u2019teki <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":131,"featured_media":27702,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","ngg_post_thumbnail":0},"categories":[376],"tags":[],"asf_pub_issue":[],"asf_pub_region":[10321],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/27749"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/131"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=27749"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/27749\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":27751,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/27749\/revisions\/27751"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/27702"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=27749"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=27749"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=27749"},{"taxonomy":"asf_pub_issue","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/asf_pub_issue?post=27749"},{"taxonomy":"asf_pub_region","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/asf_pub_region?post=27749"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}