{"id":28230,"date":"2021-07-01T12:10:54","date_gmt":"2021-07-01T09:10:54","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/?p=28230"},"modified":"2021-07-12T12:13:15","modified_gmt":"2021-07-12T09:13:15","slug":"libya-konulu-ikinci-berlin-konferansi-ne-degisti-ne-degismedi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/2021\/07\/01\/libya-konulu-ikinci-berlin-konferansi-ne-degisti-ne-degismedi\/","title":{"rendered":"Libya Konulu \u0130kinci Berlin Konferans\u0131: Ne de\u011fi\u015fti ne de\u011fi\u015fmedi?"},"content":{"rendered":"

(Bu metin \u0130ngilizce orijinal versiyonundan terc\u00fcme edilmi\u015ftir.)<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

23 Haziran g\u00fcn\u00fc uluslararas\u0131 kat\u0131l\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n yan\u0131 s\u0131ra Libyal\u0131 temsilciler, Libya\u2019da bar\u0131\u015f s\u00fcrecindeki ilerlemeleri ve s\u00fcregiden zorluklar\u0131 tart\u0131\u015fmak \u00fczere Berlin\u2019de bir araya geldi. Ancak konferans, kat\u0131l\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 ve konular\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde 19 Ocak 2020 tarihinde Berlin\u2019de d\u00fczenlenen birinci Uluslararas\u0131 Libya Konferans\u0131 ile paralellik g\u00f6sterdi\u011finden<\/a>, ilkine olduk\u00e7a benziyordu.<\/p>\n

Bir bu\u00e7uk y\u0131l \u00f6ncekine benzer \u015fekilde Almanya, bu konferans\u0131 Birle\u015fmi\u015f Milletler (BM) ve Libya Destek Misyonu (BMLDM) ile i\u015f birli\u011fi i\u00e7inde d\u00fczenledi. Davetli \u00fclke temsilcileri de yine Cezayir, M\u0131s\u0131r, \u00c7in, Almanya, Fransa, \u0130talya, Kongo Cumhuriyeti, Rusya, T\u00fcrkiye, Birle\u015fik Arap Emirlikleri (BAE), Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k ve Amerika Birle\u015fik Devletleri\u2019nden geldi ancak bu defa Hollanda da dahil edilmi\u015fti. Alman D\u0131\u015fi\u015fleri Bakan\u0131 Heiko Maas konferans\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131\u015f konu\u015fmas\u0131nda<\/a> g\u00fcndemin bir kez daha Libya\u2019da silah ambargosuna uyulmas\u0131, kal\u0131c\u0131 bir ate\u015fkes \u00e7a\u011fr\u0131s\u0131 ve birle\u015fik, me\u015fru bir siyasi y\u00f6netim kurulmas\u0131 taleplerinden olu\u015faca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ifade etti.<\/p>\n

Fakat yak\u0131ndan incelendi\u011finde, bu konferans\u0131 ile 2020 aras\u0131nda \u00e7e\u015fitli farkl\u0131l\u0131klar da mevcut. \u00d6nceki BM Libya \u00d6zel Temsilcisi Ghassam Salam\u00e9 istifas\u0131n\u0131 sunmu\u015f oldu\u011fundan listede ad\u0131 yoktu. Onun yerine Libyal\u0131 isimlerin say\u0131s\u0131 daha fazlayd\u0131 \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc Libya h\u00fck\u00fcmetinin temsilcileri Berlin II\u2019ye resmen kat\u0131lm\u0131\u015f dolay\u0131s\u0131yla da mevcut Libya Ulusal Birlik H\u00fck\u00fcmeti (UBH) temsil edilmi\u015fti. Ayr\u0131ca h\u00fck\u00fcmet, ilk defa bir kad\u0131n D\u0131\u015fi\u015fleri Bakan\u0131 (Najla El Mangoush) oldu\u011fu i\u00e7in de kendisiyle iftihar ediyor. Bu Ulusal Birlik H\u00fck\u00fcmeti\u2019nin k\u00f6kleri BM \u00f6nc\u00fcl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcndeki Libya Siyasi Diyalog Forumu (LSDF) \u00e7er\u00e7evesindeki m\u00fczakerelere dayan\u0131yor ve Ekim 2020\u2019de imzalanan ate\u015fkesle beraber UBH, Berlin I\u2019in en b\u00fcy\u00fck ba\u015far\u0131lar\u0131ndan biri konumunda.<\/p>\n

Ancak bu ba\u015far\u0131lar k\u0131smen Berlin I ile ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131. 2020 ate\u015fkesinin birincil etkeni m\u00fczakereler de\u011fil, Halife Hafter\u2019e kar\u015f\u0131 koyan g\u00fc\u00e7lere destek olarak T\u00fcrk ordusunun Trablus civar\u0131nda yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve Libya\u2019n\u0131n ba\u015fkentine y\u00f6nelik sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131 kesin olarak p\u00fcsk\u00fcrtmelerine imk\u00e2n veren m\u00fcdahalesiydi. Ayr\u0131ca \u00fclkede bir ate\u015fkes olsa da bu durum, yerel d\u00fczeyde askeri \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131 veya ter\u00f6r sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 engelleyemiyor, sadece rakip Bat\u0131 ve Do\u011fu Libya taraflar\u0131 aras\u0131nda yabanc\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lerin destekledi\u011fi askeri cayd\u0131r\u0131c\u0131l\u0131\u011fa dayal\u0131 bir so\u011fuk bar\u0131\u015f\u0131 temin edebiliyor. Ba\u015fka bir deyi\u015fle sava\u015f\u0131n bitmesinden ziyade m\u00fcdahil devletler \u00fclkedeki varl\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 tahkim edip art\u0131k do\u011frudan ve dolayl\u0131 olarak \u00e7\u0131karlar\u0131n\u0131 koruyorlar. Bu m\u00fcdahil devletlerin \u00e7e\u015fitli d\u00fczeylerde derin menfaatleri var. Mesela T\u00fcrkiye Libya\u2019da ekonomik yat\u0131r\u0131mlar yap\u0131p Trablus\u2019taki Libyal\u0131 yetkililerle Akdeniz\u2019deki deniz yetki alanlar\u0131n\u0131n s\u0131n\u0131rlar\u0131 ile ilgili \u00f6nemli anla\u015fmalar imzalad\u0131. \u00dclkenin ba\u015fkenti T\u00fcrkiye\u2019ye has\u0131m g\u00fc\u00e7lerce ele ge\u00e7irilseydi bu \u00e7\u0131karlar riske girmi\u015f olurdu.<\/p>\n

Rusya\u2019n\u0131n \u00fclkedeki \u00e7\u0131karlar\u0131 ise \u00e7o\u011funlukla salt stratejik bir nitelik ta\u015f\u0131yor. Bu y\u00fczden de Rusya, Wagner adl\u0131 paral\u0131 asker grubunu stratejik \u00f6neme sahip pozisyonlar\u0131 koruyup Libya\u2019daki geli\u015fmelere n\u00fcfuz etmek amac\u0131yla kullan\u0131yor ki uluslararas\u0131 m\u00fczakerelerde koz olarak kullanabilsin. Bu nedenle Libya\u2019dan \u00e7ekilmeyi te\u015fvik edecek pek fakt\u00f6r yok. Silah ambargosuna uyulmas\u0131, t\u00fcm yabanc\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lerin \u00e7ekilmesi ve serbest se\u00e7imlerin yap\u0131lmas\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fck ihtimalle hi\u00e7bir somut ad\u0131m at\u0131lmaks\u0131z\u0131n salt retorikten ibaret kalacak.<\/p>\n

Libya\u2019da kar\u015f\u0131 cephelerde yer alanlar sadece T\u00fcrkiye ile Rusya de\u011fil; Avrupa \u00fclkeleri de \u00fclkede farkl\u0131 d\u0131\u015f politika menfaatleri g\u00fctmekte. \u00d6n safta Fransa ile \u0130talya var. Fransa Libya ve Sahil ku\u015fa\u011f\u0131nda ter\u00f6rle m\u00fccadele g\u00fcndeminde \u0131srarc\u0131 olup bu nedenle \u201cg\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc adam\u201d olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcnen Halife Hafter\u2019e dayan\u0131rken \u0130talya Trablus ile yak\u0131n ili\u015fkilerini s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc. Ancak Alman \u015eans\u00f6lyesi<\/a> Libya Konferans\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde politikalar\u0131 koordine etmek amac\u0131yla hem Fransa Cumhurba\u015fkan\u0131 Emmanuel Macron hem de \u0130talya Ba\u015fbakan\u0131 Mario Draghi ile g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc.<\/p>\n

Berlin II\u2019yi Berlin I\u2019den ay\u0131ran bir di\u011fer d\u0131\u015f politika unsuru da Beyaz Saray y\u00f6netiminin de\u011fi\u015fmesiydi. Amerikan h\u00fck\u00fcmeti uzun bir s\u00fcredir Libya ve dolay\u0131s\u0131yla Sahil d\u00e2hil t\u00fcm b\u00f6lgede ter\u00f6rle m\u00fccadeleyi taahh\u00fctlerinin merkezi bir amac\u0131 olarak \u00f6ncelemekteydi. Fakat \u00f6nceki Ba\u015fkan Donald Trump d\u00f6neminde D\u0131\u015fi\u015fleri Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131\u2019n\u0131n Libya politikas\u0131 (da) Beyaz Saray\u2019\u0131n politikalar\u0131yla \u00e7eli\u015fiyordu. D\u0131\u015fi\u015fleri Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 istikrarl\u0131 bir Libya i\u00e7in siyasi \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcmler bulmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131rken Ba\u015fkan Trump bu \u00e7abalar\u0131, mesela Halife Hafter\u2019i cesaretlendirerek baltal\u0131yordu. Yerel akt\u00f6rlere y\u00f6nelik strateji ve destekteki bu ihtilaf yeni ABD y\u00f6netimiyle beraber \u00f6nemli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde duruldu ve Joe Biden\u2019\u0131n se\u00e7ilmesinden bu yana Halife Hafter\u2019e hi\u00e7bir s\u00f6zl\u00fc destek sunulmad\u0131. Genel anlamda Biden y\u00f6netimi son zamanlarda, Trump y\u00f6netiminin aksine Avrupal\u0131 ortaklar\u0131yla, \u00f6zellikle de Almanya\u2019yla yeniden yan yana geliyor ve BM kurum ve s\u00fcre\u00e7lerine sayg\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n

Amerika ve Avrupa\u2019n\u0131n Libya politikalar\u0131na ili\u015fkin olumlu i\u015faretlerden ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z olarak sahadaki durum hala i\u00e7 karart\u0131c\u0131. Askeri personel ve paral\u0131 askerlerin \u00fclkeden \u00e7ekilmesi \u00fclkenin istikrar\u0131 ve askeri akt\u00f6rlerin d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda siyasi ve ideal olarak me\u015fru bir iktidar devri i\u00e7in temel \u015fartlardan biri. Bu \u00e7ekilmenin nas\u0131l ba\u015far\u0131laca\u011f\u0131 net de\u011fil. \u00dcstelik Rusya ve BAE gibi m\u00fcdahil \u00fclkeler h\u00e2l\u00e2 asker, paral\u0131 asker veya askeri donan\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n varl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ink\u00e2r ediyor. Bu, \u00e7ekilmeye y\u00f6nelik somut ad\u0131mlar planlanmadan \u00f6nceki ilk gereklilik olarak g\u00f6r\u00fclebilir.<\/p>\n

Tekrar tekrar vurgulanan Libya\u2019da bu y\u0131l 24 Aral\u0131k\u2019ta se\u00e7im d\u00fczenleme plan\u0131 da bir\u00e7ok sorun i\u00e7eriyor. Birincisi, \u00e7e\u015fitli yerel se\u00e7im turlar\u0131nda da g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc gibi h\u00e2lihaz\u0131rda g\u00fcvenli ve serbest se\u00e7imler garanti edilemez. \u0130kincisi, \u015fu anda se\u00e7im d\u00fczenlemenin hi\u00e7bir anayasal zemini yok. \u00dc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fcs\u00fc ve en \u00f6nemlisi, t\u00fcm Libyal\u0131 akt\u00f6rlerin ve yabanc\u0131 destek\u00e7ilerinin se\u00e7im sonu\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 kabul etmeye haz\u0131r olup olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 son derece \u015f\u00fcpheli.<\/p>\n

\u00d6zetle, Berlin II\u2019de t\u00fcm kat\u0131l\u0131mc\u0131 \u00fclkelerin her \u015feyden \u00f6nce Ocak 2020\u2019deki konferans sonu\u00e7lar\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 yineledi\u011fi sonu\u00e7lar<\/a> yay\u0131mland\u0131. Berlin I ile kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda temel fark UBH ve di\u011fer (yeni) Libya kurumlar\u0131n\u0131n ismen belirtilerek sorumlu tutulmas\u0131. Covid-19 ile m\u00fccadele de nihai bildirgede yer alarak Ocak 2020\u2019den bu yana sadece Libya\u2019da de\u011fil t\u00fcm d\u00fcnyada da ciddi de\u011fi\u015fimler ya\u015fand\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steren bir ba\u015fka ipucu oldu. 24 Aral\u0131k\u2019ta se\u00e7im yap\u0131lmas\u0131 ve t\u00fcm yabanc\u0131 birliklerin \u00e7ekilmesi gereklili\u011fini vurgulayan kritik 5. paragrafta ulusal uzla\u015f\u0131 ihtiyac\u0131 da kabul ediliyor. Lakin \u00fc\u00e7 talebin hepsi de \u00e7ok b\u00fcy\u00fck zorluklar ve k\u00f6kl\u00fc sorunlarla kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya. Berlin\u2019deki uluslararas\u0131 konferanslarda bir mutabakat varm\u0131\u015f gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcnse de \u00e7e\u015fitli m\u00fcdahil g\u00fc\u00e7lerin bu s\u00f6zleri daha sonra tutup tutmayaca\u011f\u0131 konusunda g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc \u015f\u00fcpheler var. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki aylar ikinci Berlin konferans\u0131n\u0131n ilkinden ciddi bir farkl\u0131l\u0131k g\u00f6steren bir ak\u0131beti olup olmayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterecek.<\/p>\n<\/div>

<\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

23 Haziran g\u00fcn\u00fc uluslararas\u0131 kat\u0131l\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n yan\u0131 s\u0131ra Libyal\u0131 temsilciler, Libya\u2019da bar\u0131\u015f s\u00fcrecindeki ilerlemeleri ve s\u00fcregiden zorluklar\u0131 tart\u0131\u015fmak \u00fczere Berlin\u2019de bir araya geldi. Ancak konferans, kat\u0131l\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 ve konular\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde 19 Ocak 2020 tarihinde Berlin\u2019de d\u00fczenlenen birinci Uluslararas\u0131 Libya Konferans\u0131 ile paralellik g\u00f6sterdi\u011finden, ilkine olduk\u00e7a benziyordu<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":239,"featured_media":28145,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","ngg_post_thumbnail":0},"categories":[376],"tags":[],"asf_pub_issue":[],"asf_pub_region":[10325],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/28230"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/239"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=28230"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/28230\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":28232,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/28230\/revisions\/28232"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/28145"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=28230"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=28230"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=28230"},{"taxonomy":"asf_pub_issue","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/asf_pub_issue?post=28230"},{"taxonomy":"asf_pub_region","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/asf_pub_region?post=28230"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}