{"id":28280,"date":"2021-07-09T16:29:57","date_gmt":"2021-07-09T13:29:57","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/?p=28280"},"modified":"2021-08-04T14:17:55","modified_gmt":"2021-08-04T11:17:55","slug":"reisi-yonetimi-iran-cin-iliskilerini-nasil-sekillendirecek","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/2021\/07\/09\/reisi-yonetimi-iran-cin-iliskilerini-nasil-sekillendirecek\/","title":{"rendered":"Reisi Y\u00f6netimi \u0130ran-\u00c7in \u0130li\u015fkilerini Nas\u0131l \u015eekillendirecek?"},"content":{"rendered":"

(Bu metin \u0130ngilizce orijinal versiyonundan terc\u00fcme edilmi\u015ftir.)<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

Ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz on y\u0131lda \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n d\u0131\u015f politikas\u0131ndaki en \u00f6nemli de\u011fi\u015fimlerden biri \u00c7in ile derinle\u015fen ili\u015fkileri oldu. Bu d\u00f6nemde \u00c7in, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n bir numaral\u0131 ticaret<\/a>, ekonomi, finans ve teknoloji orta\u011f\u0131 haline geldi. Dahas\u0131 \u00c7in, \u015fu anda \u0130ran d\u0131\u015f ticaret hacminin y\u00fczde 30\u2019undan<\/a> sorumlu. Ayr\u0131ca \u00c7in kilit bir siyasi ortak ve \u0130slam devriminden sonra \u0130ran\u2019la kapsaml\u0131 bir stratejik ortakl\u0131k anla\u015fmas\u0131 imzalayan ilk \u00fclke.<\/p>\n

Do\u011fu ile ili\u015fkileri geni\u015fletip ekonomi diplomasisini<\/a> te\u015fvik etmek, yeni se\u00e7ilen y\u00f6netimin temel \u00f6ncelikleri aras\u0131nda yer al\u0131yor. Bu noktada \u00c7in, d\u00fcnyan\u0131n en b\u00fcy\u00fck ikinci ekonomisi ve \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n Do\u011fu\u2019daki en \u00f6nemli orta\u011f\u0131 olarak listenin ba\u015f\u0131nda bulunuyor.<\/p>\n

Ancak b\u00fcy\u00fck resimde Reisi h\u00fck\u00fcmetinin \u00c7in\u2019le ili\u015fkilerinde ba\u015far\u0131l\u0131 olup olmayaca\u011f\u0131 \u0130ran n\u00fckleer anla\u015fmas\u0131 olarak da bilinen Kapsaml\u0131 Ortak Eylem Plan\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (KOEP) gelece\u011fine ba\u011fl\u0131. ABD\u2019nin \u0130ran \u00fczerindeki n\u00fckleerle ili\u015fkili yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 kald\u0131rmas\u0131, iki \u00fclke aras\u0131ndaki ticari ve ekonomik ili\u015fkilerin g\u00fcvenlik konusu olmaktan \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131lmas\u0131, normalle\u015fmesi ve kademeli geni\u015flemesi i\u00e7in elzem.<\/p>\n

N\u00fckleer anla\u015fman\u0131n uyguland\u0131\u011f\u0131 2015\u2019te \u00c7inli \u015firketler \u0130ranl\u0131 ortaklar\u0131yla enerji<\/a>, finans<\/a> ve ula\u015ft\u0131rma<\/a> alanlar\u0131nda 20 milyar dolarl\u0131k yat\u0131r\u0131m ve ekonomik i\u015f birli\u011fi anla\u015fmalar\u0131 imzalam\u0131\u015ft\u0131. ABD n\u00fckleer anla\u015fmas\u0131ndan \u00e7ekildikten sonra \u00c7inli \u015firketler de kademeli olarak \u0130ran\u2019dan \u00e7ekilmi\u015fti<\/a>. Durdurulan bu projelerin canland\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 ve yeni \u00c7in yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 \u0130ran \u00fczerindeki n\u00fckleer yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n kald\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131 olacak. Dahas\u0131, \u0130ran ile \u00c7in aras\u0131nda Arak reakt\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcn yeniden tasarlanmas\u0131 hakk\u0131nda imzalanan 200 sayfal\u0131k<\/a> anla\u015fman\u0131n uygulanmas\u0131 da n\u00fckleer anla\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n yenilenmesine ba\u011fl\u0131 olacak.<\/p>\n

N\u00fckleer anla\u015fman\u0131n canland\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131n iki \u00fclke aras\u0131ndaki stratejik i\u015f birli\u011finin geli\u015fmesi \u00fczerinde de \u00f6nemli etkileri olacak. \u00c7in n\u00fckleer anla\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131 Ortado\u011fu\u2019daki n\u00fckleer yay\u0131l\u0131m\u0131n kontrol alt\u0131na al\u0131nmas\u0131nda, Fars K\u00f6rfezi\u2019nin istikrar\u0131nda ve \u00e7ok tarafl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7lendirilmesinde kilit fakt\u00f6r<\/a> olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Belki de en \u00f6nemlisi, \u00c7in n\u00fckleer anla\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n canland\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00c7inli \u015firketlerin \u0130ran\u2019la i\u015f birli\u011findeki korunmas\u0131zl\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131n da bir t\u00fcr azalmas\u0131 olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n

B\u00f6lgesel d\u00fczeyde ise iki \u00fclke ili\u015fkilerinin gelece\u011fi Ortado\u011fu\u2019da geli\u015fen b\u00f6lgesel d\u00fczen, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n \u015eanghay \u0130\u015fbirli\u011fi \u00d6rg\u00fct\u00fc\u2019ne (\u015e\u0130\u00d6) \u00fcyelik ihtimali ve Afganistan krizinden etkilenecek. Yeni h\u00fck\u00fcmet d\u00f6neminde \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n Ortado\u011fu politikas\u0131 y\u00fcksek ihtimalle [aynen] devam ettirecek ve \u0130ran Ortado\u011fu politikas\u0131 i\u00e7in \u00c7in ve Rus deste\u011fini kazanma \u00e7abalar\u0131nda \u0131srarc\u0131 olacak. Burada, \u00f6zellikle de \u00c7in\u2019in Ortado\u011fu\u2019da istikrar i\u00e7in teklif etti\u011fi<\/a> ve yeni \u0130ran h\u00fck\u00fcmetinin kolektif g\u00fcvenlik<\/a> doktrini ile \u00f6nemli \u00f6rt\u00fc\u015fmeleri bulunan inisiyatifi ba\u011flam\u0131nda \u00c7in\u2019in Ortado\u011fu\u2019da artan aktif rol\u00fc \u00f6nemli bir fakt\u00f6r. \u00c7in \u0130ran\u2019\u0131 Ortado\u011fu\u2019da \u201c\u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm\u00fcn par\u00e7as\u0131,\u201d n\u00fckleer anla\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131 ise Fars K\u00f6rfezi\u2019ndeki istikrar\u0131n temeli olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Nitekim \u00c7in, \u0130ran ile Suudi Arabistan aras\u0131nda arabuluculuk<\/a> yapmay\u0131 dahi teklif etti. \u0130ran ise kendi ad\u0131na her zaman \u00c7in\u2019i Ortado\u011fu\u2019nun b\u00f6lgesel d\u00fczenini \u015fekillendirmede aktif rol<\/a> oynamaya te\u015fvik etti.<\/p>\n

\u0130ran\u2019\u0131n \u00c7in ile Ortado\u011fu\u2019da ili\u015fkiler kurma \u00e7abalar\u0131n\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmenin \u00f6tesinde yeni y\u00f6netim muhtemelen \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n \u015e\u0130\u00d6\u2019ye tam \u00fcyelik gayretlerini yo\u011funla\u015ft\u0131racak. Kurulu\u015fundan sonraki yirmi y\u0131lda \u0130ran hep \u015e\u0130\u00d6\u2019ye tam \u00fcye olmay\u0131 ama\u00e7lad\u0131. Fakat \u00c7in \u015fimdiye kadar \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n tam \u00fcyeli\u011fini desteklemedi. \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n \u00c7in deste\u011fiyle \u00f6rg\u00fcte tam \u00fcyelik kazanmas\u0131 iki \u00fclke aras\u0131ndaki \u00e7ok tarafl\u0131 i\u015f birli\u011finin yeni bir boyutuna yol a\u00e7acak ve \u0130ran \u201cDo\u011fu\u2019ya Y\u00f6nelme politikas\u0131\u201d ba\u011flam\u0131nda ileriye d\u00f6n\u00fck \u00f6nemli bir ad\u0131m atm\u0131\u015f olacak. Ayr\u0131ca Amerikan ve koalisyon g\u00fc\u00e7lerinin devam eden \u00e7ekilmesiyle beraber Afganistan\u2019da t\u0131rmanan kriz muhtemelen Reisi h\u00fck\u00fcmetini bekleyen ilk d\u0131\u015f politika zorlu\u011fu olacak. \u0130ran \u00c7in\u2019in bu krizi y\u00f6netmeye ve Afgan merkezi h\u00fck\u00fcmetinin tamamen \u00e7\u00f6kmesini engellemeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015faca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 umuyor.<\/p>\n

\u0130kili d\u00fczeyde yeni \u0130ran h\u00fck\u00fcmeti Do\u011fu ile ili\u015fkileri geni\u015fletmeyi kilit bir \u00f6ncelik olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyor. \u0130brahim Reisi\u2019nin Bat\u0131 medyas\u0131nda \u00e7o\u011fu zaman \u201c\u015fahinler\u201d olarak nitelenen \u00f6nemli destek\u00e7ileri her zaman Do\u011fu (\u00c7in ve Rusya) ile ili\u015fkileri geni\u015fletmeyi \u0130ran d\u0131\u015f politikas\u0131n\u0131n birincil \u00f6nceliklerinden biri olarak savundu. Onlara g\u00f6re Do\u011fu ile ili\u015fkileri geni\u015fletmek Bat\u0131\u2019n\u0131n cebri diplomasisini dengeler, \u0130ran\u2019a hareket \u00f6zg\u00fcrl\u00fc\u011f\u00fc tan\u0131r ve \u0130ran ile ortak \u00e7\u0131kar ve de\u011ferlere sahip g\u00fc\u00e7lerle stratejik i\u015f birli\u011fini temsil eder.<\/p>\n

Bu arada \u00c7in\u2019in ABD ile yo\u011funla\u015fan stratejik rekabeti sonras\u0131nda \u0130ran gibi revizyonist akt\u00f6rlerle temas kurma iste\u011fi artt\u0131. \u00c7in \u00f6zellikle de Birle\u015fmi\u015f Milletler G\u00fcvenlik Konseyi\u2019nde (BMGK) Trump y\u00f6netiminin \u0130ran \u00fczerindeki azami bask\u0131 politikas\u0131 s\u0131ras\u0131nda Tahran\u2019\u0131n en \u00f6nemli destek\u00e7isiydi. \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n ABD yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131na direnmesinde \u00f6nemli bir yard\u0131mc\u0131 rol oynad\u0131, hatta bu d\u00f6nemde kapsaml\u0131 stratejik i\u015f birli\u011fi anla\u015fmas\u0131 imzalad\u0131. Xi Jinping<\/a> Putin\u2019den sonra \u0130brahim Reisi\u2019nin zaferini kutlayan ikinci devlet ba\u015fkan\u0131 oldu ve telefon aramas\u0131nda iki \u00fclke aras\u0131ndaki stratejik ili\u015fkilerin g\u00fc\u00e7lendirilmesi vurgusunda bulundu.<\/p>\n

Yeni h\u00fck\u00fcmetin iktidara gelmesiyle iki \u00fclkenin ili\u015fkilerini geni\u015fletmeye y\u00f6nelik siyasi kararl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131<\/a> ku\u015fkusuz g\u00fc\u00e7lenecektir. Kapsaml\u0131 Stratejik Ortakl\u0131k Anla\u015fmas\u0131 ikili ili\u015fkilerin geli\u015ftirilmesi i\u00e7in bir \u00e7er\u00e7eve sunuyor ve Reisi y\u00f6netimi bunun uygulanmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6nceleyecektir. Bu anla\u015fman\u0131n \u00f6z\u00fc askeri veya siyasi i\u015f birli\u011fi de\u011fil, oda\u011f\u0131nda \u00c7in sermaye, teknoloji ve ticaretinin bulundu\u011fu ekonomik ortakl\u0131kt\u0131r.<\/p>\n

Yine de anla\u015fman\u0131n hayata ge\u00e7irilmesi zorlu olacakt\u0131r. Son yirmi y\u0131lda iki \u00fclke aras\u0131ndaki ikili anla\u015fmalar\u0131n \u00f6nemli bir k\u0131sm\u0131 ya uygulanmad\u0131 ya da uygulama s\u00fcrecinde bir\u00e7ok zorlukla kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131. ABD n\u00fckleer anla\u015fmas\u0131na yeniden kat\u0131lsa bile yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n bir k\u0131sm\u0131 s\u00fcrecek ve \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n ekonomik gelece\u011fi konusunda belirli bir seviyede belirsizlik devam edecek. Dahas\u0131, \u00c7inli \u015firketler \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n karma\u015f\u0131k pazar\u0131 ve politik ekonomisi hakk\u0131nda yeterli bilgiye sahip de\u011fil ve muhtemelen pazara temkinli ve yava\u015f bir \u015fekilde girecekler.<\/p>\n

Yak\u0131n zamanda \u0130ran D\u0131\u015fi\u015fleri Bakan\u0131 Cevad Zarif,<\/a> \u0130ran i\u00e7in d\u0131\u015f ili\u015fkilerin oda\u011f\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki on y\u0131lda \u00c7in ve Rusya ile ili\u015fkilerin geni\u015fletilmesi olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtti. \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n eski \u00c7in B\u00fcy\u00fckel\u00e7isi H\u00fcseyin Melaik, Al Sharq Stratejik D\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnce Kurulu\u015fu\u2019na, Reisi y\u00f6netiminin bu yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir siyasi iradeyle y\u00fcr\u00fctecek olsa da ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n nihai olarak n\u00fckleer anla\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n canland\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131 olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n<\/div>

<\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz on y\u0131lda \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n d\u0131\u015f politikas\u0131ndaki en \u00f6nemli de\u011fi\u015fimlerden biri \u00c7in ile derinle\u015fen ili\u015fkileri oldu. Bu d\u00f6nemde \u00c7in, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n bir numaral\u0131 ticaret, ekonomi, finans ve teknoloji orta\u011f\u0131 haline geldi. Dahas\u0131 \u00c7in, \u015fu anda \u0130ran d\u0131\u015f ticaret hacminin y\u00fczde 30\u2019undan sorumlu. Ayr\u0131ca \u00c7in kilit bir siyasi ortak ve \u0130slam devriminden sonra \u0130ran\u2019la kapsaml\u0131 bir stratejik ortakl\u0131k anla\u015fmas\u0131 imzalayan ilk \u00fclke.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":115,"featured_media":28197,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","ngg_post_thumbnail":0},"categories":[376],"tags":[],"asf_pub_issue":[],"asf_pub_region":[10321],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/28280"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/115"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=28280"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/28280\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":28418,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/28280\/revisions\/28418"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/28197"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=28280"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=28280"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=28280"},{"taxonomy":"asf_pub_issue","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/asf_pub_issue?post=28280"},{"taxonomy":"asf_pub_region","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/asf_pub_region?post=28280"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}