{"id":28323,"date":"2021-07-16T11:53:34","date_gmt":"2021-07-16T08:53:34","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/?p=28323"},"modified":"2021-08-04T14:18:29","modified_gmt":"2021-08-04T11:18:29","slug":"reisi-yonetimi-iranin-afganistandaki-pragmatizmini-pekistirecek-mi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/2021\/07\/16\/reisi-yonetimi-iranin-afganistandaki-pragmatizmini-pekistirecek-mi\/","title":{"rendered":"Reisi Y\u00f6netimi \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n Afganistan\u2019daki Pragmatizmini Peki\u015ftirecek Mi?"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"fusion-fullwidth fullwidth-box fusion-builder-row-1 nonhundred-percent-fullwidth non-hundred-percent-height-scrolling\" style=\"--awb-border-radius-top-left:0px;--awb-border-radius-top-right:0px;--awb-border-radius-bottom-right:0px;--awb-border-radius-bottom-left:0px;\" ><div class=\"fusion-builder-row fusion-row\"><div class=\"fusion-layout-column fusion_builder_column fusion-builder-column-0 fusion_builder_column_1_1 1_1 fusion-one-full fusion-column-first fusion-column-last\" style=\"--awb-padding-top:20px;--awb-padding-right:20px;--awb-padding-bottom:20px;--awb-padding-left:20px;--awb-bg-size:cover;--awb-box-shadow:2px 2px 20px 2px #dddddd;;--awb-margin-bottom:0px;\"><div class=\"fusion-column-wrapper fusion-column-has-shadow fusion-flex-column-wrapper-legacy\"><div class=\"fusion-text fusion-text-1\"><p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong><em>(Bu metin \u0130ngilizce orijinal versiyonundan terc\u00fcme edilmi\u015ftir.)<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Ayr\u0131cal\u0131kl\u0131 muhafazak\u00e2r aday\u0131 ve s\u00f6ylentilere g\u00f6re Devrim Rehberi Ali Hamaney\u2019in varisi olan \u0130brahim Reisi\u2019nin se\u00e7im zaferi, ulema s\u0131n\u0131f\u0131n\u0131n h\u00fck\u00fcmetin t\u00fcm organlar\u0131 \u00fczerindeki kontrol\u00fc tamamen eline almas\u0131na yol a\u00e7t\u0131. Bu durum, g\u00f6zlemcileri ABD askeri personelinin Afganistan\u2019dan devam eden \u00e7ekilmesiyle \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n do\u011fu s\u0131n\u0131rlar\u0131n\u0131n son derece savunmas\u0131z kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir zamanda Reisi y\u00f6netiminin d\u0131\u015f politikada ne kadar radikal de\u011fi\u015fiklikler yapabilece\u011fi konusunda merakland\u0131rd\u0131. Nitekim \u0130ran, Taliban\u2019\u0131n <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bbc.com\/news\/world-asia-57564716\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u00f6nemli toprak kazan\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/world\/asia-pacific\/afghan-peace-talks-should-continue-unless-taliban-pull-out-abdullah-2021-06-26\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Doha s\u00fcrecini<\/a> keskin bir \u015fekilde durdurmas\u0131n\u0131n \u00fczerinden \u00e7ok ge\u00e7meden Afganlar aras\u0131 \u00fcst d\u00fczey bir diyalog s\u00fcrecini <a href=\"https:\/\/abcnews.go.com\/International\/wireStory\/iran-hosts-high-level-afghan-peace-talks-fighting-78706395\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">ba\u015flatarak<\/a> istikrarl\u0131 bir Afganistan\u2019\u0131n \u0130ran i\u00e7in ne kadar \u00f6nemli oldu\u011funu g\u00f6sterdi.<\/p>\n<p>\u0130ran\u2019daki muhafazak\u00e2r cephe t\u00fcm Afgan g\u00fc\u00e7leriyle \u00e7ok tarafl\u0131 diplomatik temaslar y\u00fcr\u00fct\u00fcrken \u2018bekle ve g\u00f6r\u2019 yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 benimsemi\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Yine de ABD\u2019nin Afganistan\u2019dan \u00e7ekilmesi Tahran\u2019\u0131n Kabil\u2019e y\u00f6nelik politikas\u0131na y\u00f6n veren g\u00fcvenlik \u00f6nceliklerini k\u00f6kten de\u011fi\u015ftirmedi.&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Reisi Afganistan\u2019\u0131n \u00f6tesinde Orta Asya\u2019n\u0131n 1990\u2019larda Sovyetler Birli\u011fi\u2019nden ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 kazanmas\u0131ndan sonra \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n b\u00f6lgeyle ticaret ve ba\u011flant\u0131sall\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendirmeye odaklanan uzun vadeli ve ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131z politikas\u0131n\u0131 muhtemelen s\u00fcrd\u00fcrecek. Fakat Afganistan\u2019da g\u00fcvenlik merkezli bir politika ile b\u00f6lgenin geri kalan\u0131nda jeo-ekonomik strateji aras\u0131ndaki potansiyel \u00e7eli\u015fki Tahran\u2019\u0131n b\u00f6lge ekonomisinin kalk\u0131nmas\u0131 s\u00fcrecinden s\u00fcregelen d\u0131\u015flanmas\u0131n\u0131 te\u015fvik edebilir.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Tehlikeli bir kumar: \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n \u2018bekle ve g\u00f6r\u2019 stratejisi<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Devrim Rehberi Ali Hamaney\u2019e yak\u0131n bir yay\u0131n organ\u0131 olan Kayhan, 25 Haziran\u2019da Taliban\u2019\u0131n 1998-2001 aras\u0131 y\u00f6netimlerinin hareket tarz\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6tesine evrilmi\u015f olabilece\u011fini savunan bir <a href=\"https:\/\/kayhan.ir\/fa\/news\/220405\/\u062f\u0631-\u0627\u0641\u063a\u0627\u0646\u0633\u062a\u0627\u0646-\u0686\u0647-\u062e\u0628\u0631-\u0627\u0633\u062a\u06cc\u0627\u062f\u062f\u0627\u0634\u062a-\u0631\u0648\u0632\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">makale<\/a> yay\u0131mlad\u0131. 26 Haziran\u2019da ise Merkezci haber sitesi Arman\u2019da yay\u0131nlanan bir<a href=\"https:\/\/www.armanmeli.ir\/fa\/Main\/Detail\/316976\/\u062a\u0635\u0648\u06cc\u0631-\u0627\u0645\u0646\u06cc\u062a-\u0645\u0644\u06cc-\u0645\u0627-\u062f\u0631-\u0627\u0641\u063a\u0627\u0646\u0633\u062a\u0627\u0646\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"> yaz\u0131<\/a>, aksine Taliban milislerinin s\u00fcregelen taarruzlar\u0131nda \u015eii sivilleri kasten hedef ald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 iddia etti.<\/p>\n<p>Kayhan\u2019\u0131n sivillerin zarar g\u00f6rmesini \u00f6nemsememesine kar\u015f\u0131 y\u00fckselen tepkiler D\u0131\u015fi\u015fleri Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 S\u00f6zc\u00fcs\u00fc Said Hatibzade\u2019yi \u201cTaliban t\u00fcm Afganistan\u2019\u0131 temsil etmiyor ama o \u00fclkenin ve krizden \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f yolunun bir par\u00e7as\u0131.\u201d <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tehrantimes.com\/news\/462540\/Iran-says-Taliban-doesn-t-represent-entire-Afghanistan-but-should\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">demeye<\/a> sevk etti. Ancak makalenin Taliban\u2019\u0131n s\u00f6zde de\u011fi\u015fimi hakk\u0131ndaki ifadelerini sansasyonelle\u015ftirmek daha hayati stratejik y\u00f6nlerini silikle\u015ftirme riski ta\u015f\u0131yor: Makale Taliban\u2019\u0131 birlik ve koordinasyondan uzak bir g\u00fc\u00e7 olarak tan\u0131mlayarak Taliban liderlerinin son askeri kazan\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 kullanarak tek partili bir h\u00fck\u00fcmet kurma yetisine \u015f\u00fcphe d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n<p>G\u00fcvenlik birimlerinde \u00e7ok etkili olan muhafazakarlar\u0131n ge\u00e7mi\u015fteki ve mevcut temaslar\u0131 Reisi\u2019nin Afganistan\u2019da daha pragmatik politikalar\u0131 nas\u0131l destekleyebilece\u011fini anlamada kilit \u00f6nem ta\u015f\u0131yor. &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Taliban\u2019la <a href=\"https:\/\/www.voanews.com\/south-central-asia\/iran-hosts-taliban-afghans-talks\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">s\u00fcre<\/a><a href=\"https:\/\/www.voanews.com\/south-central-asia\/iran-hosts-taliban-afghans-talks\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">gelen<\/a> diyaloglar\u0131na ra\u011fmen \u0130ranl\u0131 politika yap\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131n Taliban ile ABD aras\u0131nda iddia edilen ba\u011flant\u0131larla ilgili <a href=\"https:\/\/en.irna.ir\/news\/84391015\/Int-l-legitimacy-Taliban-s-main-problem\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">kayg\u0131lar\u0131 <\/a>ve grubun \u0130ran\u2019a bak\u0131\u015f\u0131 etraf\u0131ndaki daha derin sorular\u0131 \u00f6ne s\u00fcr\u00fcyor ki bu da onlar\u0131 <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tehrantimes.com\/news\/462457\/Iranian-diplomat-undertakes-shuttle-diplomacy-on-Afghanistan\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Cemaat-i \u0130slami Partisi<\/a> gibi di\u011fer akt\u00f6rlerle g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ba\u011flant\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmeye sevk ediyor.<\/p>\n<p>Hem Taliban\u2019la hem de Taliban kar\u015f\u0131t\u0131 gruplarla ba\u011flar\u0131n\u0131 geli\u015ftiren \u0130ran, Afganistan\u2019\u0131n gelecek g\u00fcvenlik sahas\u0131nda belirli bir seviyede n\u00fcfuzunu s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmek i\u00e7in ba\u011flant\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 kullanabilece\u011fi iyi bir konumda bulunuyor. Bu bak\u0131mdan Tahran\u2019\u0131n mevcut \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma safhas\u0131n\u0131n etkileri belli olmadan cesur manevralar yapma ihtimali hayli d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck.<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u0130ran\u2019\u0131n Afganistan\u2019daki \u00e7\u0131karlar\u0131: g\u00fcvenlik mi ekonomi mi?<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Her ne kadar sald\u0131r\u0131 ile savunma aras\u0131ndaki taktiksel ayr\u0131m pratikte bulan\u0131kla\u015fsa da Tahran\u2019\u0131n ABD sonras\u0131 Afganistan g\u00fcvenlik sahas\u0131ndaki n\u00fcfuzunu artt\u0131rmaya odaklanmas\u0131 ge\u00e7irgen \u0130ran-Afganistan s\u0131n\u0131r\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fcvenceye al\u0131p rakip g\u00fc\u00e7lerin \u0130ran topraklar\u0131n\u0131n yak\u0131nlar\u0131nda yer edinmesini \u00f6nlemeye y\u00f6nelik temelde savunmac\u0131 bir manevra olarak anla\u015f\u0131lmal\u0131.<\/p>\n<p>Tahran\u2019\u0131n g\u00fcvenli\u011fin \u00f6tesinde Afganistan\u2019\u0131n ekonomik ve ticari sekt\u00f6rlerinde de \u00e7\u0131karlar\u0131 var ve \u0130ran \u00f6nemli altyap\u0131 ve irtibat projelerine yat\u0131r\u0131m yapmay\u0131, yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 a\u015f\u0131p kendi ekonomisini yeniden canland\u0131rma arac\u0131 olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Bu geni\u015fleme unsurunun \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n Avrasya\u2019da stratejik nakliyat merkezi olarak konumunu daha da geli\u015ftirme ama\u00e7l\u0131 daha proaktif bir hedefi var. Bu iki alan kabaca Tahran\u2019\u0131n Afganistan\u2019daki g\u00fcvenlik ve jeo-ekonomik \u00e7\u0131karlar\u0131na tekab\u00fcl ediyor.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Afganistan\u2019daki t\u00fcm akt\u00f6rler: yeni bir \u201cB\u00fcy\u00fck Oyun\u201d mu?<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Tahran kendi konumu i\u00e7in Afganistan\u2019daki di\u011fer bir dizi b\u00f6lgesel ve b\u00f6lge d\u0131\u015f\u0131ndan akt\u00f6rle rekabet etmek zorunda. 14. Ekonomik \u0130\u015fbirli\u011fi \u00d6rg\u00fct\u00fc\u2019n\u00fcn Mart ay\u0131ndaki a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131\u015f\u0131nda be\u015f Orta Asya cumhuriyetinin a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131 Kabil\u2019i bir <a href=\"http:\/\/eco.int\/parameters\/eco\/modules\/cdk\/upload\/content\/general_content\/3885\/1616658284667f5loc1n737gdbio35coehg25i2.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Avrasya transit a\u011f\u0131n\u0131n kalbine<\/a> d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcrmenin potansiyel faydalar\u0131na odaklan\u0131yordu. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.railfreight.com\/specials\/2021\/06\/28\/indias-plan-to-become-a-leading-rail-freight-force\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Hindistan<\/a> ve <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tehrantimes.com\/news\/460882\/Iran-to-invest-5-3b-in-Afghanistan-s-transport-infrastructure\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u0130ran<\/a> yak\u0131n zamanda altyap\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131m \u00e7\u0131lg\u0131nl\u0131\u011f\u0131na kat\u0131ld\u0131. <a href=\"https:\/\/eurasiantimes.com\/will-pakistan-iran-turkey-troika-fill-the-vacuum-in-afghanistan-after-us-exit\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Baz\u0131 analistler<\/a> T\u00fcrkiye, Pakistan ve \u0130ran\u2019\u0131 Kabil\u2019in gelece\u011fini belirlemeye ko\u015fullanm\u0131\u015f yeni bir \u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcrken <a href=\"https:\/\/www.atlanticcouncil.org\/blogs\/new-atlanticist\/how-russia-china-and-iran-will-shape-afghanistans-future\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">d<\/a><a href=\"https:\/\/www.atlanticcouncil.org\/blogs\/new-atlanticist\/how-russia-china-and-iran-will-shape-afghanistans-future\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">i\u011ferleri<\/a> \u00c7in, Rusya ve \u0130ran aras\u0131ndaki ekonomik \u00e7\u0131karlar\u0131n yak\u0131nla\u015fmas\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n<p>Ancak t\u00fcm bu analizler Orta Asya jeopoliti\u011findeki potansiyel bir d\u00f6n\u00fcm noktas\u0131n\u0131, be\u015f eski Sovyet Cumhuriyeti ve \u00c7in\u2019in Afganistan\u2019\u0131n gelece\u011fi hakk\u0131nda yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 <a href=\"https:\/\/www.fmprc.gov.cn\/web\/wjbzhd\/t1875224.shtml\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">ortak a\u00e7\u0131klamay\u0131<\/a> g\u00f6zden ka\u00e7\u0131rma riski ta\u015f\u0131yor. Bu durum Pekin\u2019in son on y\u0131lda \u0130\u00e7 Asya\u2019da sahip oldu\u011fu ticaret ve yat\u0131r\u0131m hegemonyas\u0131ndan <a href=\"https:\/\/eurasianet.org\/china-kyrgyzstan-uzbekistan-railway-who-is-going-to-pay\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">politik olarak yararlanmas\u0131n\u0131n<\/a> ba\u015flang\u0131c\u0131 olabilir. Pekin\u2019in Kabil\u2019in ekonomik olarak toparlanmas\u0131nda daha aktif yer almas\u0131 \u00f6zellikle de \u00c7in kendi toparlanmas\u0131n\u0131 \u0130ran\u2019\u0131 d\u0131\u015flay\u0131p Orta Asya\u2019ya ticaret rotalar\u0131 a\u00e7maya y\u00f6nlendirirse \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n manevra alan\u0131n\u0131 ciddi anlamda daraltacakt\u0131r. Pekin ile Tahran aras\u0131nda yak\u0131n zamanda bir <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tehrantimes.com\/news\/460263\/Iran-China-comprehensive-strategic-partnership-from-perspective\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">protokol<\/a> imzalanmas\u0131na ra\u011fmen \u00c7in Yeni \u0130pek Yolu kalk\u0131nma program\u0131nda kilit bir merkez olarak \u0130ran\u2019a dayanmakta teredd\u00fct etmektedir. Bu durum <a href=\"https:\/\/financialtribune.com\/articles\/economy\/108404\/middle-east-institute-focuses-on-iran-china-strategic-agreement\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">baz\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n<\/a> bu protokol\u00fc Tahran\u2019a ger\u00e7ek bir taahh\u00fct olarak de\u011fil Washington\u2019a bir parmak sallama olarak g\u00f6rmesine neden oldu. Dahas\u0131, \u00c7in\u2019in <a href=\"https:\/\/news.cgtn.com\/news\/2021-06-04\/China-Afghanistan-Pakistan-vow-to-work-for-peace-in-Afghanistan--10OhCm8xh9m\/index.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Afganistan stratejisini<\/a> \u0130ran yerine <a href=\"https:\/\/news.cgtn.com\/news\/2021-06-04\/China-Afghanistan-Pakistan-vow-to-work-for-peace-in-Afghanistan--10OhCm8xh9m\/index.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">a\u00e7\u0131ktan Pakistan ile koordine etmesi<\/a> Pekin&#8217;in Kabil\u2019in stratejik de\u011ferini &nbsp;\u00f6ncelikle \u0130ran\u2019a bir rota olmaktan ziyade \u015fimdilik <a href=\"https:\/\/www.thenews.com.pk\/print\/859668-china-has-a-big-plan-for-post-us-afghanistan-and-it-s-worth-billions\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u00c7in-Pakistan Ekonomik Koridoru\u2019<\/a>nda bir merkez noktas\u0131 olarak g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n<p>Taliban\u2019\u0131n y\u00f6netti\u011fi bir Afganistan, \u00c7in\u2019in b\u00f6lgedeki yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131na bir tehdit olarak g\u00f6r\u00fclebilse de baz\u0131 <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ft.com\/content\/49d266c6-a6c2-4ab2-bf52-ed34d72b22c1\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">raporlar<\/a> \u015fu an Pekin\u2019in istikrarl\u0131 bir Afganistan\u2019la sonu\u00e7lanacaksa Taliban liderli\u011findeki bir h\u00fck\u00fcmetle i\u015f birli\u011fi yapmaya istekli oldu\u011funu \u00f6ne s\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Nitekim Diplomat ge\u00e7en y\u0131l \u00c7in\u2019in Taliban ile g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerini ve iddia edildi\u011fi \u00fczere <a href=\"https:\/\/thediplomat.com\/2020\/09\/chinas-stake-in-the-afghan-peace-process\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Taliban\u2019dan<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/thediplomat.com\/2020\/09\/chinas-stake-in-the-afghan-peace-process\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u00f6rt\u00fcl\u00fc<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/thediplomat.com\/2020\/09\/chinas-stake-in-the-afghan-peace-process\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">deste\u011fi<\/a> kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131nda Uygur milislerin Afgan topraklar\u0131na yerle\u015fmesini \u00f6nlemesini istedi\u011fini yazd\u0131. Dahas\u0131, Afganistan\u2019a m\u00fcdahil olman\u0131n getirebilece\u011fi ciddi risklere ra\u011fmen Kabil\u2019den kopmak, \u00f6zellikle de \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma ve ayr\u0131l\u0131k\u00e7\u0131 ak\u0131mlar\u0131n b\u00f6lgeye ve Sincan\u2019a yay\u0131lma riski g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcne al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda Pekin i\u00e7in \u00e7ok daha tehlikeli olabilir.<\/p>\n<p><strong>G\u00fcn\u00fcn sonunda Tahran\u2019\u0131n ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131z Orta Asya politikas\u0131 de\u011fi\u015fmek zorunda kalacak<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Pekin\u2019in Afganistan konusunda Tahran\u2019la koordinasyon kurmadaki \u00e7ekincesi nihayetinde Orta Asya cumhuriyetlerinin \u0130ran\u2019la daha derin ekonomik ve siyasi temaslarda bulunmaktan ka\u00e7\u0131nmas\u0131yla ayn\u0131 konulara dayan\u0131yor. \u0130kisi \u015fu an Taliban\u2019la g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u011f\u00fc i\u00e7in \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n Afganistan\u2019daki hedefi Pekin ile birbirine yak\u0131n g\u00f6r\u00fcnebilir. Fakat iki g\u00fc\u00e7 aras\u0131nda daha derin bir stratejik ayr\u0131\u015fma var: Pekin kim y\u00f6netirse y\u00f6netsin istikrarl\u0131 bir Afganistan isterken \u0130ran istikrar\u0131ndan ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z olarak dost bir Afganistan istiyor.<\/p>\n<p>Reisi\u2019nin se\u00e7ilmesiyle \u0130ran devlet kadrolar\u0131n\u0131n \u0130slam devriminin ideallerine ba\u011fl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n yenilenmesi Tahran\u2019\u0131n Orta Asya devletleriyle ili\u015fkilerini daha da so\u011futabilir. Bu durum yak\u0131n zamanda <a href=\"https:\/\/eurasianet.org\/uzbekistan-campaign-on-non-state-islam-kicking-up-a-gear\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u0130slami pratikler<\/a> \u00fczerindeki bask\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 yo\u011funla\u015ft\u0131ran <a href=\"https:\/\/eurasianet.org\/perspectives-uzbekistan-rising-as-central-asian-integration-catalyst\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">y\u00fckselen bir b\u00f6lgesel g\u00fc\u00e7<\/a> olan \u00d6zbekistan i\u00e7in \u00f6zellikle ge\u00e7erli. Ger\u00e7ekte \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n mevcut ve potansiyel t\u00fcm b\u00f6lgesel ortaklar\u0131n\u0131n \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131 \u0130ran\u2019\u0131 zay\u0131f ve asimetrik bir ili\u015fkide tutmaktan ge\u00e7iyor. Pakistan ile T\u00fcrkiye muhtemelen \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n daha da k\u00f6t\u00fcle\u015fmesini \u00f6nlemek i\u00e7in konu bazl\u0131 \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcmler \u00fczerine <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tehrantimes.com\/news\/462457\/Iranian-diplomat-undertakes-shuttle-diplomacy-on-Afghanistan\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">i\u015f birli\u011fi<\/a> yapacak ama Afganistan\u2019\u0131n gelecek h\u00fck\u00fcmetinde g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir \u0130ran n\u00fcfuzuna da izin vermeyecektir. Benzer \u015fekilde ne Rusya ne de \u00c7in g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc, ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z ve g\u00fcvenilir bir b\u00f6lgesel g\u00fc\u00e7 olacak kadar siyasi ve ekonomik sermayesi olan bir \u0130ran g\u00f6rmek istiyor.<\/p>\n<p>Bunun tek istisnas\u0131 Tahran\u2019\u0131 \u0130slamabad\u2019a kar\u015f\u0131 kullan\u0131\u015fl\u0131 bir denge unsuru ve <a href=\"https:\/\/www.outlookindia.com\/website\/story\/india-news-on-chabahar-day-india-pushes-for-iran-port-in-key-international-route\/376152\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Chabahar liman projesi<\/a> \u00fczerinden Kabil\u2019e g\u00fcvenilir bir rota olarak g\u00f6ren Hindistan. Se\u00e7ilmi\u015f Cumhurba\u015fkan\u0131 Reisi, \u00f6zellikle de yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n muhtemel kald\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131ndan sonra Hamaney\u2019in Bat\u0131\u2019dan ekonomik ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131k politikas\u0131n\u0131n meyve verdi\u011fini g\u00f6rmek istiyorsa \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n daha geni\u015f Orta Asya politikas\u0131nda ileriye matuf ba\u015far\u0131l\u0131 bir yol bulmak i\u00e7in Tahran\u2019\u0131n t\u00fcm dirayet ve diplomatik tecr\u00fcbesinden faydalanmak zorunda olacakt\u0131r. Ancak \u0130ranl\u0131 politika belirleyiciler, ekonomilerini canland\u0131r\u0131p b\u00f6lgesel geli\u015fmelere entegre olmak amac\u0131yla vermeye haz\u0131r olduklar\u0131 \u00f6d\u00fcnlerin \u00f6tesinde patronaj \u00fczerinden g\u00fcvenlik sa\u011flayan geleneksel stratejilerinden taviz vermek zorunda kalabilir.<\/p>\n<\/div><div class=\"fusion-clearfix\"><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Ayr\u0131cal\u0131kl\u0131 muhafazak\u00e2r aday\u0131 ve s\u00f6ylentilere g\u00f6re Devrim Rehberi Ali Hamaney\u2019in varisi olan \u0130brahim Reisi\u2019nin se\u00e7im zaferi, ulema s\u0131n\u0131f\u0131n\u0131n h\u00fck\u00fcmetin t\u00fcm organlar\u0131 \u00fczerindeki kontrol\u00fc tamamen eline almas\u0131na yol a\u00e7t\u0131. Bu durum, g\u00f6zlemcileri ABD askeri personelinin Afganistan\u2019dan devam eden \u00e7ekilmesiyle \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n do\u011fu s\u0131n\u0131rlar\u0131n\u0131n son derece savunmas\u0131z kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir zamanda Reisi y\u00f6netiminin d\u0131\u015f politikada ne kadar radikal de\u011fi\u015fiklikler yapabilece\u011fi konusunda merakland\u0131rd\u0131.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":229,"featured_media":28248,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","ngg_post_thumbnail":0},"categories":[376],"tags":[],"asf_pub_issue":[],"asf_pub_region":[10321],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/28323"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/229"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=28323"}],"version-history":[{"count":6,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/28323\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":28420,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/28323\/revisions\/28420"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/28248"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=28323"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=28323"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=28323"},{"taxonomy":"asf_pub_issue","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/asf_pub_issue?post=28323"},{"taxonomy":"asf_pub_region","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/asf_pub_region?post=28323"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}