{"id":28492,"date":"2021-08-02T11:27:33","date_gmt":"2021-08-02T08:27:33","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/?p=28492"},"modified":"2021-08-10T11:33:28","modified_gmt":"2021-08-10T08:33:28","slug":"cumhurbaskani-reisi-iranin-abye-yaklasimini-nasil-sekillendirecek","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/2021\/08\/02\/cumhurbaskani-reisi-iranin-abye-yaklasimini-nasil-sekillendirecek\/","title":{"rendered":"Cumhurba\u015fkan\u0131 Reisi \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n AB\u2019ye Yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 Nas\u0131l \u015eekillendirecek?"},"content":{"rendered":"

(Bu metin \u0130ngilizce orijinal versiyonundan terc\u00fcme edilmi\u015ftir.)<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

\u0130ranl\u0131 siyasi elitlerin ve daha geni\u015f anlamda \u0130ran halk\u0131n\u0131n g\u00f6z\u00fcnde Avrupa Birli\u011fi\u2019nin (AB) k\u00fcresel bir akt\u00f6r olarak rol\u00fc, Amerika\u2019n\u0131n \u0130ran \u00fczerindeki azami bask\u0131 politikas\u0131n\u0131 alt etme giri\u015fiminin ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131zl\u0131\u011f\u0131nda da g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc \u00fczere AB\u2019nin stratejik bir ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n olmamas\u0131 nedeniyle ciddi anlamda zay\u0131flad\u0131. Bu [alg\u0131], Bat\u0131l\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lere kar\u015f\u0131 genel anlamda daha sert bir yakla\u015f\u0131m sergileyece\u011fine inan\u0131lan Cumhurba\u015fkan\u0131 Reisi d\u00f6neminde \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n Avrupal\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lere y\u00f6nelik politikas\u0131n\u0131 etkileyecek. \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n mutabakata dayal\u0131 stratejik karar alma s\u00fcre\u00e7leri nedeniyle yeni y\u00f6netim d\u00f6neminde hesaplar\u0131nda b\u00fcy\u00fck bir de\u011fi\u015fim olmas\u0131 pek muhtemel olmasa da Reisi\u2019nin \u201cdevrimci\u201d d\u00fcnya g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fc ve \u0130ranl\u0131 muhafazak\u00e2rlar\u0131n Bat\u0131\u2019ya y\u00f6nelik iyi bilinen g\u00fcvensizli\u011fi \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n AB\u2019ye yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131n\u0131n daha kararl\u0131 ve daha az uzla\u015fmac\u0131 olaca\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor. Bu durum \u00f6zellikle \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n ba\u015fl\u0131ca g\u00fc\u00e7 kaynaklar\u0131 olan balistik f\u00fcze program\u0131 ve b\u00f6lgesel politika ile n\u00fcfuzu i\u00e7in ge\u00e7erli.<\/p>\n

Ruhani y\u00f6netiminin Bat\u0131\u2019yla yap\u0131c\u0131 ili\u015fkileri 2015\u2019te \u0130ran n\u00fckleer anla\u015fmas\u0131 olarak bilinen Kapsaml\u0131 Ortak Eylem Plan\u0131\u2019na (KOEP) zemin haz\u0131rlarken, bizzat o anla\u015fman\u0131n kaderi Bat\u0131l\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lerle herhangi bir anlaml\u0131 temas\u0131n \u00fczerine \u015f\u00fcphe g\u00f6lgesi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fcyor. \u0130roniktir ki anla\u015fmay\u0131 ihlal eden taraf Birle\u015fik Devletler (ABD) olmas\u0131na ra\u011fmen \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n ele\u015ftirilerinin b\u00fcy\u00fck k\u0131sm\u0131na maruz kalanlar, yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 bypass edecek bir mali ara\u00e7 olan INSTEX mekanizmas\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fcr\u00fcrl\u00fc\u011fe koyma gibi asgari \u00e7abalar\u0131 hi\u00e7bir somut sonu\u00e7 vermeyen Avrupal\u0131lar olmu\u015ftu. Bu bak\u0131mdan Trump\u2019\u0131n \u00e7ekilmesinin ard\u0131ndan anla\u015fmay\u0131 korumaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015fsalar da Avrupal\u0131lar ABD\u2019nin azami bask\u0131s\u0131na pratikte dayanamad\u0131klar\u0131 i\u00e7in \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n yo\u011fun ele\u015ftirileriyle kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya kald\u0131.<\/p>\n

Bir\u00e7ok \u0130ranl\u0131 Avrupa\u2019n\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 tabiri caizse ABD ile \u2018iyi polis-k\u00f6t\u00fc polis\u2019 hilesindeki i\u015f b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcnden ibaret g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Hatta AB\u2019nin ABD\u2019nin ani reaksiyonu (\u0130ran\u2019\u0131n n\u00fckleer anla\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131 ihlal etti\u011fi kan\u0131tland\u0131\u011f\u0131nda kald\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f t\u00fcm BM yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n yeniden konmas\u0131n\u0131 ama\u00e7layan mekanizma) tetiklemesini desteklemeyi reddetmesi de bu konuda \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc de\u011fi\u015ftirmedi. Ayr\u0131ca, AB\u2019nin \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n milli kahraman\u0131 olarak g\u00f6r\u00fclen General Kas\u0131m S\u00fcleymani\u2019nin ABD taraf\u0131ndan \u00f6ld\u00fcr\u00fclmesi konusundaki sessizli\u011fi<\/a> ise AB\u2019nin \u0130ran\u2019a kar\u015f\u0131 tesir g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc daha da azaltt\u0131. Reisi\u2019nin g\u00fcc\u00fc n\u00fckleer anla\u015fmaya giden her ad\u0131m\u0131 ve sonras\u0131ndaki ABD ve AB tutumlar\u0131n\u0131 ele\u015ftirmi\u015f bir ihtilaftan geliyor. Bu ba\u011flamda \u0130ranl\u0131 muhafazak\u00e2r \u00e7evrelerin Bat\u0131 hakk\u0131ndaki olumsuz g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fleri son birka\u00e7 y\u0131lda daha da artt\u0131 ve bu ihtilaf h\u00e2lihaz\u0131rda Reisi\u2019nin se\u00e7ilmesiyle Tahran\u2019da d\u00fcmeni eline ald\u0131.<\/p>\n

Reisi d\u00f6neminde \u0130ran-Avrupa ili\u015fkilerinin \u00e7o\u011funa kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131kl\u0131 beklentiler y\u00f6n verecek. \u0130ranl\u0131lar\u0131n AB\u2019nin KOEP\u2019deki rol\u00fc ve \u0130ran\u2019a y\u00f6nelik politikas\u0131 hakk\u0131nda s\u00f6yledikleri muhtemelen \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n AB g\u00fc\u00e7lerine ileriye d\u00f6n\u00fck yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6lgede b\u0131rakacak. AB\u2019nin yeterlili\u011fi bir yana, \u0130ranl\u0131lar sadece AB\u2019nin yapabileceklerine de\u011fil n\u00fckleer anla\u015fmay\u0131 kurtarmak i\u00e7in ABD\u2019nin azami bask\u0131 kampanyas\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 \u00e7\u0131kma iste\u011fine y\u00f6nelik de ciddi ku\u015fkular\u0131n\u0131 dile getirdi. Bu temkinlilik nedeniyle \u0130ranl\u0131lar\u0131n Reisi\u2019den beklentileri Ruhani\u2019den bekledikleriyle muhtemelen ayn\u0131 olacak: KOEP\u2019in tam tatbiki ve \u0130ran\u2019a zaten anla\u015fma kapsam\u0131nda kazanm\u0131\u015f olduklar\u0131n\u0131n teslim edilmesi. \u0130ran ayr\u0131ca beklentilerine Bat\u0131\u2019n\u0131n KOEP\u2019i ihlal edip \u00fclkede ciddi ekonomik zorluklara neden olmas\u0131n\u0131 da telafi etmesini ekliyor. Bu beklentiler aras\u0131nda \u00f6nceki ihlallerin tazmini ve gelecekteki ihlallerin \u00f6nlenece\u011fi garantisi de yer al\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

Avrupal\u0131lar \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n KOEP\u2019e tam riayet edip g\u00fcnbat\u0131m\u0131 ko\u015fullar\u0131 denen maddeleri (uzat\u0131lmamas\u0131 halinde k\u0131s\u0131tlamalar\u0131 birka\u00e7 y\u0131l i\u00e7inde kald\u0131ran bir h\u00fck\u00fcm) uzatmas\u0131n\u0131n yan\u0131 s\u0131ra Tahran\u2019\u0131n savunma kapasitesi ve b\u00f6lgesel politika ile n\u00fcfuzunu da m\u00fczakere etmeyi kabul etmesini bekliyor. Tek tarafl\u0131 bir konvansiyonel silah kontrol anla\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n emsalinin olmay\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcnde bulunduran \u0130ran balistik f\u00fcze program\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeyi reddediyor. Retlerinin arkas\u0131ndaki di\u011fer nedenler ise bu program\u0131n savunma kapasitesi hakk\u0131nda olmas\u0131 ve \u00fclkelerin bu kapasitelerini a\u00e7\u0131\u011fa vurmamas\u0131 ve de s\u0131n\u0131rland\u0131rmamas\u0131d\u0131r. \u0130ran, ba\u015fl\u0131ca Avrupa ve Arap \u00fclkeleriyle ABD\u2019nin d\u00fc\u015fmanlar\u0131 Irak Baas rejimini destekledi\u011fi 1980-1988 \u0130ran-Irak sava\u015f\u0131 s\u0131ras\u0131nda cayd\u0131r\u0131c\u0131 kapasiteye \u00e7ok ihtiya\u00e7 duydu\u011funda nas\u0131l yaln\u0131z b\u0131rak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 hala an\u0131msamakta. Ayr\u0131ca, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n savunma kapasitesinden verilecek herhangi bir taviz k\u00fcresel g\u00fc\u00e7lerle ili\u015fkilerde e\u015fit seviyede durma anlam\u0131na gelen ve \u0130ran Dini Lideri taraf\u0131ndan dile getirilen<\/a> hassas milli \u0130zzet (\u0130tibar) ilkesiyle de \u00e7eli\u015fecek. <\/p>\n

Ancak b\u00f6lgesel anlamda \u0130ranl\u0131lar, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n b\u00f6lgesel n\u00fcfuzu de\u011fil b\u00f6lgesel krizlerin \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm\u00fc i\u00e7in e\u015fit seviyede tart\u0131\u015fmalara daha a\u00e7\u0131k g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Tahran b\u00f6lgesel diyalog \u00e7a\u011fr\u0131s\u0131nda bulunuyor ki bu noktada Fars K\u00f6rfezi g\u00fcvenli\u011fine y\u00f6nelik H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bar\u0131\u015f Giri\u015fimi (HOPE)<\/a> ve b\u00f6lgedeki yerel akt\u00f6rler aras\u0131nda bir b\u00f6lgesel g\u00fcvenlik diyalo\u011fu<\/a> kurulmas\u0131 gibi projeler \u00f6nerdi. \u0130ran b\u00f6lgesel konularda Astana S\u00fcreci ve \u0130ran-AB aras\u0131ndaki Yemen g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeleri<\/a> \u00f6rneklerinde oldu\u011fu gibi AB d\u00e2hil, b\u00f6lge d\u0131\u015f\u0131 akt\u00f6rlerle de devam eden m\u00fczakerelerde yer almakta. Bu anlamda b\u00f6lgesel g\u00fcvenlik konusunda \u00f6zellikle kom\u015fu \u00fclkelerle paralel bir m\u00fczakere program\u0131 Tahran taraf\u0131ndan s\u0131cak kar\u015f\u0131lanacakt\u0131r. Fakat Tahran bu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeleri daha \u00f6nce imzalanm\u0131\u015f olan ve sabote edilmi\u015f olsa da kazan\u0131lm\u0131\u015f bir anla\u015fma olarak g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc bir anla\u015fmaya (KOEP gibi) ba\u011flamay\u0131 reddediyor. <\/p>\n

\u0130ranl\u0131lar Biden\u2019\u0131n se\u00e7ilmesinden sonra ABD ve Avrupal\u0131 m\u00fcttefiklerinin KOEP\u2019e ko\u015fulsuz d\u00f6nmesini bekliyordu. Ancak Bat\u0131 bunun yerine KOEP\u2019e h\u0131zl\u0131 ve temiz bir d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f s\u00fcrecini karma\u015f\u0131kla\u015ft\u0131rmamak amac\u0131yla \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n \u00e7ekti\u011fi ekonomik zorluklar\u0131n tazmin edilmesi taleplerini erteledi. AB\u2019nin \u0130ran hakk\u0131ndaki s\u00f6ylemi asl\u0131nda daha da sertle\u015fti<\/a>: AB sadece KOEP\u2019in g\u00fcnbat\u0131m\u0131 denen maddelerinin muhafaza edilmesi konusunda de\u011fil \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n b\u00f6lgesel politikas\u0131 ve savunma kapasitesi hakk\u0131nda da \u0130ran\u2019dan daha fazla \u015fey talep ediyor fakat \u0130ran bunlar\u0131 \u015fimdiye kadar reddetti. Bu talepk\u00e2r yakla\u015f\u0131m \u00f6fkelenen \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n uranyum zenginle\u015ftirme seviyesini %20\u2019ye<\/a> ve sonra %60\u2019a<\/a> y\u00fckseltmeye (Cumhurba\u015fkan\u0131<\/a> bunun ileride belki de %90\u2019a y\u00fckseltilebilece\u011fini belirtti), \u0130ran parlamentosunu da \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n KOEP y\u00fck\u00fcml\u00fcl\u00fcklerinin bir par\u00e7as\u0131 olarak g\u00f6n\u00fcll\u00fc olarak g\u00f6zetti\u011fi ek protokol i\u00e7in bir son tarih belirleyen tasar\u0131y\u0131 ge\u00e7irmeye itti. Reisi y\u00f6netimi muhtemelen azami bask\u0131ya ve AB\u2019nin sertle\u015fen yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n KOEP y\u00fck\u00fcml\u00fcl\u00fcklerini daha da a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekerek diren\u00e7 g\u00f6stermeyi s\u00fcrd\u00fcrecek.<\/p>\n

Azami bask\u0131 politikas\u0131 yerinde dururken \u0130ranl\u0131lar ABD\u2019nin b\u00f6lgesel politikas\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 da diren\u00e7 g\u00f6steriyordu ki Reisi y\u00f6netimi, n\u00fckleer m\u00fczakerelerdeki mevcut t\u0131kanma s\u00fcrerse muhtemelen bunu daha da artt\u0131racak. Genel anlamda Reisi y\u00f6netiminin AB ve daha geni\u015f \u00f6l\u00e7ekte Bat\u0131\u2019ya y\u00f6nelik yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131, Reisi\u2019nin ABD ve AB\u2019yi KOEP\u2019e geri d\u00f6nmeye \u00e7a\u011f\u0131rmas\u0131nda<\/a> g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc \u00fczere \u201cbask\u0131ya kar\u015f\u0131 bask\u0131\u201d ve \u201criayete kar\u015f\u0131 riayet\u201d \u015feklinde olacak. Bu y\u00fczden AB\u2019nin sertle\u015fen tutumu muhtemelen \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n daha sert tutumuyla kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya kalacak. Gelinen noktada, \u00f6nceki tavizler daha \u00e7ok bask\u0131 ve yapt\u0131r\u0131mdan ba\u015fka hi\u00e7bir sonu\u00e7 do\u011furmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n taviz verecek durumunun kalmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 anla\u015f\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n<\/div>

<\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u0130ranl\u0131 siyasi elitlerin ve daha geni\u015f anlamda \u0130ran halk\u0131n\u0131n g\u00f6z\u00fcnde Avrupa Birli\u011fi\u2019nin (AB) k\u00fcresel bir akt\u00f6r olarak rol\u00fc, Amerika\u2019n\u0131n \u0130ran \u00fczerindeki azami bask\u0131 politikas\u0131n\u0131 alt etme giri\u015fiminin ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131zl\u0131\u011f\u0131nda da g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc \u00fczere AB\u2019nin stratejik bir ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n olmamas\u0131 nedeniyle ciddi anlamda zay\u0131flad\u0131. Bu [alg\u0131], Bat\u0131l\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lere kar\u015f\u0131 genel anlamda daha sert bir <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":111,"featured_media":28320,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","ngg_post_thumbnail":0},"categories":[376],"tags":[],"asf_pub_issue":[],"asf_pub_region":[10321],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/28492"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/111"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=28492"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/28492\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":28494,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/28492\/revisions\/28494"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/28320"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=28492"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=28492"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=28492"},{"taxonomy":"asf_pub_issue","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/asf_pub_issue?post=28492"},{"taxonomy":"asf_pub_region","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/asf_pub_region?post=28492"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}