{"id":29255,"date":"2021-10-12T12:02:49","date_gmt":"2021-10-12T09:02:49","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/?p=29255"},"modified":"2021-11-18T14:39:06","modified_gmt":"2021-11-18T11:39:06","slug":"abdnin-afganistandan-cekilmesi-liberal-duzenin-dususunun-son-kaniti","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/2021\/10\/12\/abdnin-afganistandan-cekilmesi-liberal-duzenin-dususunun-son-kaniti\/","title":{"rendered":"ABD’nin Afganistan’dan \u00c7ekilmesi: Liberal D\u00fczenin D\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcn Son Kan\u0131t\u0131"},"content":{"rendered":"

(Bu metin \u0130ngilizce orijinal versiyonundan terc\u00fcme edilmi\u015ftir.)<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

Son Amerikan askeri 30 A\u011fustos’ta Afganistan’\u0131 terk etti\u011finde d\u00fcnya ABD d\u0131\u015f politikas\u0131n\u0131n Ortado\u011fu ve Orta Asya’daki son yenilgilerinden birine tan\u0131k oldu. ABD’nin demokratik ve liberal bir devletmi\u015f gibi olu\u015fturmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 imaj\u0131 giri\u015fimi ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131z oldu. Afganistan’dan \u00e7ekilmenin ard\u0131ndan Ba\u015fkan Joe Biden, Amerika’n\u0131n Afganistan’daki misyonunun \u00fclkeye demokrasi veya liberal d\u00fczen yaymak de\u011fil ter\u00f6rle m\u00fccadele oldu\u011funu a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. Ba\u015fkan\u0131n Afganistan\u2019a de\u011ferler temelli m\u00fcdahaleyi \u00f6nemsiz g\u00f6stermeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 ABD\u2019nin zay\u0131flayan liberal m\u00fcdahaleci politikas\u0131n\u0131n en yeni kan\u0131t\u0131 ve liberal hegemonyan\u0131n d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcn a\u00e7\u0131k bir i\u015fareti. Fakat bu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f demokratik de\u011ferler, insan haklar\u0131, serbest ticaret ve kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131kl\u0131 ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131l\u0131k ilkeleri \u00fczerine kurulmu\u015f k\u00fcresel liberal d\u00fczenin \u00e7\u00f6kt\u00fc\u011f\u00fc anlam\u0131na gelmiyor. Liberal d\u00fczen ABD d\u0131\u015f politikas\u0131n\u0131n esas \u00e7er\u00e7evesi olmaya devam edecek.<\/p>\n

Ancak Washington\u2019daki karar al\u0131c\u0131lar liberal m\u00fcdahalecilikten (\u00f6rne\u011fin liberal olmayan rejimleri devirip yerlerine liberal ilkeleri benimseyen ve insan haklar\u0131na sayg\u0131 duyan rejimler koymaktan) \u00f6zellikle de \u00c7in ve Rusya gibi y\u00fckselen g\u00fc\u00e7lerin meydan okumas\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k olarak realist bir d\u0131\u015f politikaya kay\u0131yor. Bu yeni perspektif kaymas\u0131 birbiriyle ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 ve i\u00e7 i\u00e7e \u00fc\u00e7 alanda uluslararas\u0131 siyasete yans\u0131yacak: g\u00fc\u00e7 dengesi, silahlanma yar\u0131\u015f\u0131 ve ittifaklar\u0131n yeniden tan\u0131mlanmas\u0131 ki bunlar realizmin temel ilkeleri olarak g\u00f6r\u00fclebilir.<\/p>\n

K\u00fcresel Siyasette Liberal D\u00fczen<\/strong><\/p>\n

De\u011ferlere dayal\u0131 liberal d\u00fczenin ilk modern versiyonunun Avrupa\u2019da Napolyon sava\u015flar\u0131ndan sonra hayata ge\u00e7ti\u011fi savunulabilir. Yayg\u0131n ad\u0131yla Avrupa Uyumu liberal d\u00fczenin kurucu ilkelerinin baz\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 yans\u0131tt\u0131 \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc rakip devletler genel istikrar\u0131 mutabakat ve ortak de\u011ferler zemininde bulu\u015fma ile s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Kissinger\u2019\u0131n savundu\u011fu gibi sadece fiziksel de\u011fil ahlaki de bir denge vard\u0131. G\u00fc\u00e7 ve adalet s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilir uyumda bulunuyordu. Bu d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fcn ilk sonucu g\u00fc\u00e7 kullan\u0131m\u0131nda g\u00f6zle g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcr bir azalma ya\u015fanmas\u0131yd\u0131.[i]<\/a><\/p>\n

Avrupa Uyumu yakla\u015f\u0131k y\u00fcz y\u0131l boyunca Avrupa\u2019da bar\u0131\u015f\u0131 korumay\u0131 ba\u015fard\u0131. K\u0131r\u0131m sava\u015f\u0131 gibi birka\u00e7 k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck sava\u015f d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda Birinci D\u00fcnya Sava\u015f\u0131\u2019na kadar Avrupa\u2019da b\u00fcy\u00fck g\u00fc\u00e7ler aras\u0131nda hi\u00e7bir b\u00fcy\u00fck sava\u015f ya\u015fanmad\u0131. Fakat k\u0131sa s\u00fcrede sava\u015f\u0131n k\u00fcllerinden uluslararas\u0131 liberal d\u00fczenin ikinci a\u015famas\u0131 do\u011facakt\u0131.<\/p>\n

Birinci D\u00fcnya Sava\u015f\u0131ndan bezmi\u015f Avrupa \u00e7ok ge\u00e7meden okyanusun \u00f6tesinden yeni bir g\u00fc\u00e7, Amerika Birle\u015fik Devletleri, taraf\u0131ndan ku\u015fat\u0131lacakt\u0131. ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Woodrow Wilson, beraberinde insan haklar\u0131 ve demokratik kurumlar\u0131n merkezi bir yer kaplad\u0131\u011f\u0131 yeni bir liberal d\u00fczen g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc getirerek Atlantik\u2019i ge\u00e7ti. Wilson, Avrupa\u2019n\u0131n kurdu\u011fu uluslararas\u0131 d\u00fczene i\u00e7kin g\u00fc\u00e7 dengesi ve silahlanma yar\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n sava\u015f\u0131 ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131lmaz k\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131na inan\u0131yordu. Buna \u00e7are olarak devletlerin kendi i\u00e7 ve uluslararas\u0131 davran\u0131\u015flar\u0131na yapt\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 olan yasal k\u0131s\u0131tlamalar konmas\u0131n\u0131 kabul etti\u011fi bir d\u00fczen in\u015fa etmeyi \u00f6nerdi.<\/p>\n

Bu \u00e7abalar Versay Anla\u015fmas\u0131\u2019nda Milletler Cemiyeti do\u011furdu. Wilson Cemiyet\u2019in devletlerin aralar\u0131ndaki ihtilaflar\u0131 mutabakatla \u00e7\u00f6zmek i\u00e7in ba\u015fvurduklar\u0131 bir kurulu\u015f olmas\u0131n\u0131 istiyordu. Ancak bar\u0131\u015f\u00e7\u0131l liberal d\u00fczenin \u00fctopik hayaliyle hareket eden adam Amerikal\u0131 yurtta\u015flar\u0131n\u0131 izolasyonculu\u011fu b\u0131rak\u0131p ABD\u2019nin Cemiyet\u2019in bir \u00fcyesi olmas\u0131n\u0131 sa\u011flayacak Versay Anla\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131 onaylamaya ikna edemeden nihayet kederinden \u00f6lecekti.<\/p>\n

Bununla beraber Franklin D. Roosevelt\u2019in iktidara gelmesi ve y\u0131k\u0131c\u0131 \u0130kinci D\u00fcnya Sava\u015f\u0131\u2019n\u0131n bitmesiyle Wilsoncu d\u00fcnya d\u00fczeni nihayet o g\u00fcnden bu yana uluslararas\u0131 ili\u015fkilere y\u00f6n veren ilkeleri k\u00e2\u011f\u0131da d\u00f6kt\u00fc. Bu d\u00fczen \u0130nsan Haklar\u0131 Evrensel Beyannamesi\u2019nde yank\u0131 buldu ve Birle\u015fmi\u015f Milletler, Uluslararas\u0131 Adalet Divan\u0131 ve D\u00fcnya Ticaret \u00d6rg\u00fct\u00fc gibi kurumlar\u0131n belirledi\u011fi kurallara g\u00f6re y\u00fcr\u00fct\u00fcld\u00fc.[ii]<\/a> Liberal d\u00fczen \u2018devletler \u00e7\u0131karlar\u0131n\u0131 i\u015f birli\u011fi ve kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131kl\u0131 yard\u0131m arac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131yla g\u00fctmeli\u2019 \u015fiar\u0131na dayan\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

Liberal filozoflar demokratik de\u011ferlerle \u00f6zg\u00fcrl\u00fck, i\u015f birli\u011fi, kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131kl\u0131 ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131l\u0131k, insan haklar\u0131 ve serbest ticaret d\u00fczeni gibi liberal ilkeleri yayman\u0131n uluslararas\u0131 sistemi devletlerin ihtilaflar\u0131 \u00e7\u00f6zmede ulus \u00fcst\u00fc ba\u011flay\u0131c\u0131 kanunlar ve m\u00fczakere edilmi\u015f normlar\u0131 referans ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir uluslararas\u0131 topluma d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcrece\u011fine inan\u0131yordu.<\/p>\n

\u0130kinci D\u00fcnya Sava\u015f\u0131ndan hemen sonra patlak veren So\u011fuk Sava\u015f liberal d\u00fczenin g\u00fc\u00e7lendirip yay\u0131lmas\u0131 ihtiyac\u0131n\u0131 peki\u015ftirdi. T\u00fcm So\u011fuk Sava\u015f boyunca Amerikan d\u0131\u015f politikas\u0131n\u0131 tan\u0131mlayan ve Sovyetler Birli\u011fi\u2019ni ku\u015fat\u0131p kom\u00fcnizmle veya Ba\u015fkan Ronald Reagan\u2019\u0131n tabiriyle \u201c\u015eeytan \u0130mparatorlu\u011fu\u201d ile m\u00fccadele etmeyi ama\u00e7layan yayg\u0131n ad\u0131yla \u00e7evreleme politikas\u0131, d\u00fcnyan\u0131n \u00f6nde gelen liberal demokrasilerinin birlikte \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131p koalisyonlarla sabitlenmi\u015f \u00e7ok tarafl\u0131 i\u015f birli\u011fi sayesinde serbest ve a\u00e7\u0131k bir sistemi s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmesi i\u00e7in proaktif bir politika gerektiriyordu.<\/p>\n

Liberal Hegemonya <\/strong><\/p>\n

So\u011fuk Sava\u015f\u2019\u0131n bitip Sovyetler Birli\u011fi\u2019nin \u00e7\u00f6kmesi liberal an, liberal de\u011ferlerin ve demokrasinin totaliteryenizme galebe \u00e7ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 tarihin sonu an\u0131 olarak tan\u0131mland\u0131. George H. W. Bush ve Clinton y\u00f6netimleri \u201cyeni bir d\u00fczeni;\u201d kendi kaderini tayin etmenin, \u00fclkeler aras\u0131nda ve i\u00e7inde hukukun \u00fcst\u00fcnl\u00fc\u011f\u00fc, liberal ekonomiler ve insan haklar\u0131n\u0131 koruman\u0131n h\u00e2kim oldu\u011fu bir d\u00fczen kurmak i\u00e7in u\u011fra\u015facakt\u0131. K\u00fcresel d\u00fczen sadece tek bir hegemonik s\u00fcper g\u00fcc\u00fcn h\u00e2kim oldu\u011fu tek kutuplu bir sisteme d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Modern tarihte ilk defa ABD liberal de\u011ferler alt\u0131nda d\u00fcnyay\u0131 \u015fekillendirmek i\u00e7in tam yetkiye sahip olmu\u015ftu. O d\u00f6nemde Rusya yeni liberal dalgaya meydan okuyamayacak kadar zay\u0131ft\u0131, \u00c7in ise hala Mao\u2019nun B\u00fcy\u00fck \u0130leri At\u0131l\u0131m\u0131n\u0131n yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131 krizden \u00e7\u0131kmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131yordu. \u0130\u015fte bu \u201cliberal hegemonya\u201d an\u0131yd\u0131 \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc Washington\u2019daki elitler liberal hegemonyay\u0131 olabildi\u011fince \u00e7ok \u00fclkeyi liberal demokrasiye d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcr\u00fcrken a\u00e7\u0131k bir uluslararas\u0131 ekonomiyi te\u015fvik edip heybetli uluslararas\u0131 kurumlar kurmak i\u00e7in h\u0131rsl\u0131 bir strateji olarak benimsemi\u015fti. \u00d6z\u00fcnde ABD d\u00fcnyay\u0131 kendi suretinde yeniden kurma giri\u015fiminde bulundu.[iii]<\/a><\/p>\n

\u0130kinci D\u00fcnya Sava\u015f\u0131ndan sonra Bat\u0131 Avrupa\u2019y\u0131 kom\u00fcnizmin pen\u00e7esine d\u00fc\u015fmekten kurtarmak i\u00e7in tasarlanan h\u0131rsl\u0131 Marshall Plan\u0131\u2019na benzer bir \u015fekilde ABD ve Avrupa Birli\u011fi do\u011fuya do\u011fru geni\u015fleyip eski Sovyet eyaletleri olan Do\u011fu Avrupa devletlerini Bat\u0131\u2019n\u0131n n\u00fcfuz alan\u0131na katmak i\u00e7in acele etti. \u00dcstelik ABD, Polonya gibi daha \u00f6nce kom\u00fcnist etki alan\u0131na tabi bir\u00e7ok \u00fclkeyi katmak i\u00e7in Kuzey Atlantik Anla\u015fmas\u0131 \u00d6rg\u00fct\u00fc\u2019n\u00fcn (NATO) \u015femsiyesini h\u0131zla geni\u015fletti. Bu hamleler Putin iktidara geldi\u011finde kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k verecek \u00f6zg\u00fcveni kazanan Rusya\u2019y\u0131 k\u0131zd\u0131rd\u0131. Bu politika zamanla y\u00fczlerce \u00f6l\u00fcm ve kayba neden olup Avrupa\u2019n\u0131n t\u00fcm g\u00fcvenlik ve istikrar\u0131n\u0131 tehlikeye atan Ukrayna krizinin patlak vermesine yol a\u00e7t\u0131.<\/p>\n

Genel anlamda liberal ilkeler ve demokratikle\u015fme bu politikan\u0131n arkas\u0131ndaki itici g\u00fc\u00e7t\u00fc. \u201cDemokratik bar\u0131\u015f\u201d gibi baz\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnceler ciddi ivme kazand\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan siyasal elitler Bat\u0131\u2019n\u0131n g\u00fcvenlik ve istikrar\u0131n\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmenin yeg\u00e2ne yolunun insan haklar\u0131 ilkesi ve liberal normlar\u0131n yay\u0131lmas\u0131ndan ge\u00e7ti\u011fine inand\u0131. Bu inan\u00e7, demokratik ve liberal devletlerin birbirleriyle sava\u015fmad\u0131\u011f\u0131, aksine bar\u0131\u015f i\u00e7inde bir arada ya\u015fay\u0131p anla\u015fmazl\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7\u00f6zd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc inanc\u0131 olan \u201cdemokratik bar\u0131\u015f teorisine\u201d dayan\u0131yordu.<\/p>\n

ABD Afganistan ve Irak\u2019ta sava\u015f a\u00e7may\u0131 me\u015frula\u015ft\u0131rmak i\u00e7in de ayn\u0131 liberal kli\u015feleri kulland\u0131. 11 Eyl\u00fcl sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131 ABD\u2019nin gurur ve onurunu sars\u0131p intikam duygusunu kabartsa da s\u00f6ylemlerinde hala liberalizm g\u00fcd\u00fcm\u00fcndeki d\u0131\u015f politika hakimdi. \u0130\u015fgalleri temellendirmek i\u00e7in kullan\u0131lan temel anlat\u0131 Afganistan ve Irak halklar\u0131n\u0131n Saddam gibi tiranlar\u0131n ve radikal \u0130slamc\u0131lar\u0131n demir pen\u00e7esinden kurtar\u0131lmas\u0131yd\u0131. Fakat Irak sava\u015f\u0131n\u0131n liberal hegemonyan\u0131n tabutuna \u00e7ak\u0131lan ilk \u00e7ivi oldu\u011fu savunulabilir. Bush y\u00f6netiminin \u201cya yan\u0131m\u0131zda ya kar\u015f\u0131m\u0131zdas\u0131n\u0131z\u201d yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131 ABD\u2019nin on y\u0131llarca in\u015fa etmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ok tarafl\u0131l\u0131k ilkesini mahvedip Washington\u2019\u0131 sava\u015f\u0131 reddeden Fransa ve Almanya gibi en yak\u0131n m\u00fcttefiklerinden baz\u0131lar\u0131yla da kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya getirdi.<\/p>\n

ABD D\u0131\u015f Politikas\u0131: Liberal M\u00fcdahalecilikten Kopu\u015f<\/strong><\/p>\n

2003 Irak sava\u015f\u0131n\u0131n yan\u0131 s\u0131ra birka\u00e7 ba\u015fka fakt\u00f6r de liberal hegemonyan\u0131n zay\u0131flamas\u0131na katk\u0131da bulundu: \u00c7in ve Rusya gibi liberal olmayan \u00fclkelerin uluslararas\u0131 arenadaki y\u00fckseli\u015fi ve dikkat \u00e7ekici ekonomik ve siyasal ba\u015far\u0131lar\u0131, k\u00fcresel ter\u00f6rizmin y\u00fckseli\u015fi ve 2008 k\u00fcresel finans krizi ve korona vir\u00fcs\u00fc pandemisi gibi ulus a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 krizlerin yay\u0131lmas\u0131. Trump\u2019\u0131n 2016 se\u00e7imlerindeki zaferi ve Britanya\u2019n\u0131n Avrupa Birli\u011fi\u2019nden \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131n\u0131n (Brexit) sadece en bilinen g\u00f6stergeleri oldu\u011fu pop\u00fclizmin k\u00fcresel y\u00fckseli\u015fi de bunlara eklendi. Pop\u00fclistlerin g\u00fcndeminin ba\u015f\u0131nda yer alan politikan\u0131n duvarlar in\u015fa edip izolasyon ve korumac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 te\u015fvik ederek \u00fclkelerinin liberal siyasi gelene\u011finden kopmak oldu\u011funu s\u00f6ylemeye gerek yok.<\/p>\n

Dahas\u0131, liberal d\u00fczenin kusurlar\u0131 liberal devletlerin k\u00fcresel \u0131s\u0131nma gibi \u00e7arp\u0131c\u0131 k\u00fcresel krizlerden baz\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 veya dezenformasyon kampanyalar\u0131 ve yalan haber gibi ileri teknolojik geli\u015fmelerin sonu\u00e7lar\u0131na cevap vermek i\u00e7in koordinasyon ve i\u015f birli\u011fi yapamamas\u0131na yans\u0131d\u0131.  Fakat \u00e7ok \u015fa\u015f\u0131rt\u0131c\u0131 bir \u015fekilde bu liberal rejimler Arap ayaklanmalar\u0131ndan sonra M\u0131s\u0131r ve Tunus gibi \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc d\u00fcnya \u00fclkelerindeki yeni demokratikle\u015fme s\u00fcre\u00e7lerini desteklemedi. Mesela \u00e7o\u011fu Bat\u0131l\u0131 liberal g\u00fc\u00e7 M\u0131s\u0131r\u2019da serbest ve adil se\u00e7imlerle se\u00e7ilen cumhurba\u015fkan\u0131na d\u00fczenlenen 2013 askeri darbesini tan\u0131y\u0131p d\u00fcped\u00fcz ikiy\u00fczl\u00fcl\u00fck i\u00e7inde g\u00fcvenliklerini liberal ilkelere \u00f6nceledi.<\/p>\n

Liberal hegemonyan\u0131n bu gerilemesi Obama\u2019n\u0131n \u201carkadan liderlik etme politikas\u0131\u201d [iv]<\/a> ve \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n n\u00fckleer program\u0131na ili\u015fkin Kapsaml\u0131 Ortak Eylem Plan\u0131 (KOEP) veya iklim de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fiyle m\u00fccadele hakk\u0131ndaki Paris Anla\u015fmas\u0131 gibi bir\u00e7ok uluslararas\u0131 anla\u015fmadan \u00e7eken Trump\u2019\u0131n ulusal izolasyonculu\u011funda g\u00f6r\u00fclebilirdi.<\/p>\n

Ayn\u0131 \u015fekilde ABD\u2019nin yak\u0131n d\u00f6nemde Afganistan\u2019dan ayr\u0131lmas\u0131 da liberal hegemonyan\u0131n d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc ve liberalizmin Amerikan d\u0131\u015f politika \u00f6nceliklerinde ikinci s\u0131raya gerileyebilece\u011finin son kan\u0131t\u0131 olarak anla\u015f\u0131labilir. Ba\u015fkan Biden\u2019\u0131n Afganistan sava\u015f\u0131n\u0131n sona ermesi hakk\u0131nda yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00fc\u00e7 bin kelimelik a\u00e7\u0131klamada liberalizm, demokrasi veya ilgili ba\u015fka hi\u00e7bir kelime yer alm\u0131yordu.[v]<\/a> Biden\u2019\u0131n son konu\u015fmalar\u0131nda defalarca savunuldu\u011fu gibi ABD\u2019nin g\u00fc\u00e7 kullanmak i\u00e7in tek bir nedeni vard\u0131: \u201c11 Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de bize sald\u0131ran ter\u00f6ristleri haklamak\u201d ve \u201cAfganistan\u2019\u0131n ABD\u2019ye kar\u015f\u0131 sald\u0131r\u0131lar yap\u0131labilecek bir \u00fcs olmas\u0131n\u0131 engellemek i\u00e7in ter\u00f6r tehdidini azaltmak.\u201d[vi]<\/a> Bu hedefe ula\u015f\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda art\u0131k ABD\u2019nin sava\u015fmak i\u00e7in bir sebebi kalmam\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Bat\u0131 tarz\u0131 bir demokraside mi yoksa Taliban y\u00f6netimi alt\u0131nda m\u0131 ya\u015fayacaklar\u0131 karar\u0131 dahil \u201csadece Afgan halk\u0131 kendi gelece\u011fi hakk\u0131nda karar verebilirdi.\u201d[vii]<\/a><\/p>\n

Dahas\u0131, Biden\u2019\u0131n konu\u015fmas\u0131 ABD d\u0131\u015f politikas\u0131n\u0131n \u00fc\u00e7 alan\u0131n\u0131 orta vadede kapsayacak temel varsay\u0131mlara i\u015faret ediyor. Birincisi, ABD de\u011ferleri d\u0131\u015f politikas\u0131n\u0131n arkas\u0131ndaki itici g\u00fc\u00e7 olmaktan \u00e7\u0131karacak. \u0130kincisi, ter\u00f6rle m\u00fccadelede askeri kara operasyonlar\u0131n\u0131 tamamen b\u0131rak\u0131p yerine sofistike \u00f6l\u00fcmc\u00fcl insans\u0131z hava ara\u00e7lar\u0131yla nokta at\u0131\u015f\u0131 askeri operasyonlar\u0131 kullanacak. Son olarak, g\u00fc\u00e7lerini \u00c7in ve bir dereceye kadar Rusya\u2019n\u0131n olu\u015fturdu\u011fu hayati tehditle y\u00fczle\u015fmek i\u00e7in yeniden konu\u015fland\u0131racak. Biden konu\u015fmas\u0131nda d\u00fcnyan\u0131n ABD\u2019nin \u00c7in ile ciddi bir rekabete girdi\u011fi ve Rusya\u2019n\u0131n bir\u00e7ok cephedeki meydan okumalar\u0131 ve siber sald\u0131r\u0131lar ve n\u00fckleer silahlanmayla m\u00fccadele etti\u011fi s\u00fcrekli de\u011fi\u015fimlerini kabul ediyordu.<\/p>\n

Post-liberal Hegemonya D\u00fczeni<\/strong><\/p>\n

Bu varsay\u0131mlar de\u011fer ve ilkeler yerine salt g\u00fc\u00e7 ve stratejik de\u011ferlendirmelerin k\u00fcresel rekabetin odak noktas\u0131 oldu\u011fu \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclebilir uluslararas\u0131 d\u00fczenin yeni yap\u0131s\u0131 i\u015flevi g\u00f6rebilir. Ger\u00e7ekle\u015firse bu hipotez liberalizmin realizme teslim oldu\u011fu anlam\u0131na gelir.<\/p>\n

Fakat realist d\u00fcnya d\u00fczeni b\u00fcy\u00fck g\u00fc\u00e7ler aras\u0131nda \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma ve sava\u015f\u0131 ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131lmaz k\u0131lm\u0131yor. Nitekim So\u011fuk Sava\u015f da ABD ile Sovyetler Birli\u011fi aras\u0131nda do\u011frudan bir sava\u015f ya\u015fanmadan sona ermi\u015fti. Buradaki mesele yeni d\u00fcnya d\u00fczeninin d\u00fcrt\u00fclerinin sava\u015flarla ilgili olmayaca\u011f\u0131d\u0131r. Ba\u015fka bir deyi\u015fle sava\u015flar her d\u00fcnya d\u00fczeninin iskeleti olmaya devam edecek ama farkl\u0131 olan b\u00fcy\u00fck g\u00fc\u00e7lerin sava\u015flar\u0131 nas\u0131l g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc olacak. En az\u0131ndan ABD i\u00e7in sava\u015flar art\u0131k rejimleri de\u011fi\u015ftirmek veya zorla demokrasi dayatmak i\u00e7in de\u011fil y\u00fckselen g\u00fc\u00e7lere kendi k\u00fcresel liderli\u011fine meydan okuma \u015fans\u0131 tan\u0131mamak i\u00e7in olacak. Her ne kadar ABD \u00f6nc\u00fc liberal s\u00fcper g\u00fc\u00e7 olarak kalacak olsa da sahadaki hamlelerini veya g\u00fc\u00e7 g\u00f6sterilerini motive eden liberal saikler olmayacak.<\/p>\n

Genel anlamda yeni k\u00fcresel d\u00fczenin net s\u0131n\u0131rlar\u0131n\u0131 tayin etmek i\u00e7in hen\u00fcz \u00e7ok erken. BM Genel Sekreteri Ant\u00f3nio Guterres\u2019in uyard\u0131\u011f\u0131 gibi \u00c7in ile ABD aras\u0131ndaki rekabet \u201cSo\u011fuk Sava\u015f\u2019tan \u00e7ok daha az tahmin edilebilir.\u201d Bu tahmin edilemezli\u011fin nedenlerinden biri Bat\u0131\u2019n\u0131n kendisinden, \u00f6zellikle de Bat\u0131\u2019n\u0131n \u00fcst\u00fcnl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc d\u00fcnyaya dayatmas\u0131ndan bu yana ilk kez Avrupa d\u0131\u015f\u0131 bir y\u00fckselen g\u00fc\u00e7le kar\u015f\u0131la\u015fan ABD\u2019den kaynaklan\u0131yor. Mesela Bat\u0131\u2019n\u0131n So\u011fuk Sava\u015f d\u00f6neminde Sovyetler Birli\u011fi\u2019ne kar\u015f\u0131 uygulad\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00e7evreleme politikas\u0131 \u00c7in\u2019e kar\u015f\u0131 i\u015fe verimli olmayabilir. Bir yandan \u00c7in\u2019in Sovyetler Birli\u011fi\u2019nin yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 gibi ba\u015fkalar\u0131na dayatmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 kat\u0131 bir siyasi ideolojisi yok. \u00d6te yandan y\u0131l\u0131n \u00e7o\u011fu zaman\u0131 donmu\u015f denizler nedeniyle karayla \u00e7evrili kalan Sovyetler Birli\u011fi\u2019nin aksine \u00c7in\u2019in denizlere serbest merkezi eri\u015fimi var.<\/p>\n

Yine de b\u00fcy\u00fck g\u00fc\u00e7 rekabetinin yeni oyunu, sadece devletin b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fc, k\u00fcresel sistemdeki konumu ve askeri ve ekonomik g\u00fc\u00e7lerinin b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fc gibi temel noktalar\u0131 hesaba katan baz\u0131 reel politik ilkelere taze kan sa\u011flayabilir. Bu da ideolojik g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015flerin veya ahlaki \u00f6nc\u00fcllerin art\u0131k uluslararas\u0131 jeopolitik satran\u00e7 tahtas\u0131nda birer \u00f6ncelik olmayaca\u011f\u0131 anlam\u0131na geliyor.<\/p>\n

Genel olarak yeni b\u00fcy\u00fck g\u00fc\u00e7 oyunu birbiriyle ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 ve i\u00e7 i\u00e7e olan \u00fc\u00e7 alana dayanacak: g\u00fc\u00e7 dengesi, silahlanma yar\u0131\u015f\u0131 ve ittifaklar\u0131n yeniden tan\u0131mlanmas\u0131 ki bunlar realizmin temel ilkeleri olarak g\u00f6r\u00fclebilir.<\/p>\n

G\u00fc\u00e7 dengesi ilkesi uzun bir s\u00fcre realist teorinin devletler aras\u0131 ili\u015fkilerin dinamiklerini anlamada en \u00f6nemli s\u00fctunlar\u0131ndan biri olageldi. Daha \u00f6nce kavram, So\u011fuk Sava\u015f\u2019\u0131n bitiminden sonra tart\u0131\u015fmas\u0131z tek bir s\u00fcper g\u00fc\u00e7 oldu\u011fu i\u00e7in ihti\u015fam\u0131n\u0131 biraz kaybetti. Bug\u00fcn uluslararas\u0131 sistemdeki g\u00fc\u00e7 dengesinde k\u00f6kl\u00fc bir de\u011fi\u015fim var. \u00c7in\u2019in n\u00fcfuzunda kararl\u0131 bir y\u00fckseli\u015fe tan\u0131k oluyoruz. Ayn\u0131 zamanda Rusya ister Avrupa (Ukrayna krizi), Ortado\u011fu (Suriye krizi) veya Afrika (Libya) olsun d\u00fcnyan\u0131n bir\u00e7ok b\u00f6lgesinde m\u00fcdahil olmaya ba\u015flad\u0131. Bu g\u00fc\u00e7lerin y\u00fckseli\u015fi ABD\u2019nin uluslararas\u0131 sistem \u00fczerindeki hegemonyas\u0131na k\u00f6kl\u00fc bir meydan okuma te\u015fkil ediyor ve bu da onu k\u00fcresel liderli\u011fine meydan okuyan bu y\u00fckselen g\u00fc\u00e7lere kar\u015f\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7 dengesi ilkesine g\u00f6re hareket etmeye zorluyor.<\/p>\n

Bu geli\u015fmeler kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda b\u00fcy\u00fck g\u00fc\u00e7ler ittifaklar\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendirme yoluna gidecek. \u0130ttifaklar kurma g\u00fc\u00e7 dengesi oyununun ilk ad\u0131m\u0131d\u0131r. G\u00fcneydo\u011fu Asya\u2019da g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm\u00fcz gibi \u00e7ok kutuplu bir b\u00f6lgesel sistemde b\u00fcy\u00fck g\u00fc\u00e7ler herhangi bir \u00fclkenin mutlak hegemon seviyesine ula\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131 engelleme ilkesiyle hareket edecek. Burada ABD\u2019nin son n\u00fckleer denizalt\u0131 anla\u015fmas\u0131yla Avustralya ile olan ili\u015fkisini nas\u0131l peki\u015ftirmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. ABD\u2019nin Japonya ve G\u00fcney Kore gibi geleneksel m\u00fcttefikleriyle aras\u0131ndaki g\u00fcveni onarmas\u0131 gerekecek. Ayn\u0131 zamanda Endonezya[viii]<\/a>  gibi \u00e7ekimser g\u00fc\u00e7lere kendi \u00e7abalar\u0131na kat\u0131ls\u0131nlar diye yeniden g\u00fcven vermeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015facak. Bu hamleler hi\u00e7 ku\u015fkusuz ABD\u2019ye kar\u015f\u0131 hamle yapacak olan \u00c7in\u2019i rahats\u0131z edecek. \u00c7in ayr\u0131ca Tayvan\u2019\u0131 anavatan\u0131na ilhak edip G\u00fcney \u00c7in Denizi\u2019ndeki yapay adalar\u0131 \u00fczerindeki hakimiyetini geni\u015fleterek \u00f6nleyici sald\u0131r\u0131 stratejisine ba\u015fvurabilir.<\/p>\n

Grupla\u015fma ve yeniden grupla\u015fma s\u00fcreci k\u00fcresel sistem i\u00e7erisindeki g\u00fcvensizli\u011fi peki\u015ftirir. Bu y\u00fczden \u00fclkeler beka i\u00e7in kendi imkanlar\u0131na dayanmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131r. En uyumlunun ayakta kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir sistemde her devlet ba\u015fta sert g\u00fc\u00e7le ilgili olanlar olmak \u00fczere kendi g\u00fc\u00e7 kaynaklar\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendirmeyi ama\u00e7layacak. Sert g\u00fc\u00e7 kapsam\u0131nda devletler n\u00fckleer g\u00fc\u00e7 m\u00fchimmatlar\u0131n\u0131 geli\u015ftirecek ki bu da bizi dengeleyici n\u00fckleer g\u00fc\u00e7ler d\u00f6nemine geri g\u00f6t\u00fcrebilir. Yine de bu sefer yeni atom devri \u00e7ok daha fazla say\u0131da n\u00fckleer g\u00fc\u00e7 i\u00e7eriyor ki bu da insan hayat\u0131na benzeri g\u00f6r\u00fclmemi\u015f bir tehlike arz ediyor. \u015eu an sadece Asya\u2019da \u00c7in, Hindistan, Pakistan ve Kuzey Kore olmak \u00fczere d\u00f6rt n\u00fckleer g\u00fc\u00e7 var ve Japonya ve Avustralya gibi di\u011fer g\u00fc\u00e7ler de bu kul\u00fcbe girmeye haz\u0131rlan\u0131yor. \u00c7ok kutuplu bir n\u00fckleer g\u00fc\u00e7ler sisteminde silahlanma yar\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n nas\u0131l g\u00f6r\u00fcnece\u011fini ancak hayal edebiliriz.<\/p>\n

Ayn\u0131 sebeple rakip s\u00fcper g\u00fc\u00e7ler keskin g\u00fc\u00e7lerini g\u00fc\u00e7lendirecek. Keskin g\u00fc\u00e7 derken \u00f6zel olarak yapay zek\u00e2 ve bilgi teknolojileriyle geli\u015fen g\u00fcce at\u0131f yap\u0131yorum. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki on y\u0131lda daha fazla siber sald\u0131r\u0131, yapay zekayla geli\u015ftirilmi\u015f sald\u0131r\u0131lar ve S\u0130HA ve di\u011fer insans\u0131z ara\u00e7lar\u0131n kullan\u0131m\u0131na tan\u0131k olaca\u011f\u0131z. Ba\u015fka bir deyi\u015fle gelecek sava\u015flar siber alan ve uzayda ger\u00e7ekle\u015fecek. G\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcz siyasi elitlerinin kulland\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00f6ylemlere h\u0131zl\u0131ca bir g\u00f6z atmak sava\u015f ve rekabetin yeni alanlar\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6nemini anlamak i\u00e7in yeterli: s\u0131k s\u0131k siber sava\u015f ve yapay zekayla donanm\u0131\u015f makinelerden gelecekteki sava\u015f tehlikelerine ili\u015fkin kayg\u0131lar\u0131 aras\u0131nda bahsediyorlar. Asl\u0131nda hepimiz kayg\u0131lanmal\u0131y\u0131z. Yeni nesil sava\u015flar\u0131n devletlerin g\u00fcvenli\u011fine olu\u015fturdu\u011fu ger\u00e7ek tehlikeyi kavramak i\u00e7in \u0130srail\u2019in \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n en \u00f6nemli n\u00fckleer bilimcilerinden birine yapay zekayla g\u00fc\u00e7lendirilmi\u015f bir ara\u00e7la nas\u0131l suikast d\u00fczenledi\u011fine bakmak yeterli olacakt\u0131r.[ix]<\/a> <\/p>\n

G\u00fcn\u00fcn sonunda ABD\u2019nin Afganistan\u2019dan \u00e7ekilmesi iki boyutlu bir e\u011filimi yans\u0131tt\u0131. Birincisi, bu \u00e7ekilme ABD\u2019nin temelde So\u011fuk Sava\u015f\u2019\u0131n bitiminde benimsedi\u011fi bir strateji olan liberal m\u00fcdahalecili\u011fin gerilemesinin son kan\u0131t\u0131. \u0130kincisi, ABD k\u00fcresel stratejisini uluslararas\u0131 arenadaki geli\u015fmelere uyumlu hale getirmek i\u00e7in yeniden d\u00fczenliyor. Bu strateji esas olarak, ba\u015fta \u00c7in olmak \u00fczere Amerika\u2019n\u0131n uluslararas\u0131 liderli\u011fine ger\u00e7ek bir meydan okuma te\u015fkil eden y\u00fckselen g\u00fc\u00e7leri \u00e7evrelemektir. Fakat liberal hegemonyan\u0131n gerilemesi ABD\u2019nin liberalizmi bir gecede terk edece\u011fi anlam\u0131na gelmiyor. Liberal de\u011ferler etkin kal\u0131p liberal g\u00fc\u00e7lerin d\u0131\u015f politikas\u0131n\u0131 \u015fekillendirmede \u00f6nemli bir rol oynamaya devam edecek. Yine de bu, \u00e7ok kutuplu bir d\u00fcnyan\u0131n reel politik ihtiya\u00e7lar\u0131yla giderek t\u00f6rp\u00fclenen bir liberalizm olacak.<\/p>\n

Referanslar<\/strong><\/p>\n

[i]<\/a> Henry Kissinger, Diplomacy <\/em>(1994). s. 82.<\/p>\n

[ii]<\/a> G. John Ikenberry, \u201cThe Next Liberal Order The Age of Contagion Demands More Internationalism, Not Less,\u201d Foregin Affairs, Temmuz\/A\u011fustos 2020.<\/p>\n

[iii]<\/a> John J. Marsheimer, The Great Delusion: Liberal Dreams and International Realities<\/em> (ABD: Yale University Press).<\/p>\n

[iv]<\/a> Charles Krauthammer, \u201cThe Obama doctrine: Leading from behind,\u201d Washington Post, 28 A\u011fustos 2011.<\/p>\n

https:\/\/www.washingtonpost.com\/opinions\/the-obama-doctrine-leading-from-behind\/2011\/04\/28\/AFBCy18E_story.html<\/a><\/p>\n

[v]<\/a> Remarks by President Biden on the End of the War in Afghanistan, Beyaz Saray, 31 A\u011fustos 2021.  https:\/\/www.whitehouse.gov\/briefing-room\/speeches-remarks\/2021\/08\/31\/remarks-by-president-biden-on-the-end-of-the-war-in-afghanistan\/<\/a><\/p>\n

[vi]<\/a> Remarks by President Biden on the Drawdown of U.S. Forces in Afghanistan, Beyaz Saray, 8 Temmuz 2021.<\/p>\n

[vii]<\/a> Joshua Shifrinson ve Stephen Wertheim, \u201cBiden the Realist The President\u2019s Foreign Policy Doctrine Has Been Hiding in Plain Sight,\u201d Foregin Affairs, 9 Eyl\u00fcl 2021. https:\/\/www.foreignaffairs.com\/articles\/united-states\/2021-09-09\/biden-realist<\/a><\/p>\n

[viii]<\/a> Evan A. Laksmana, \u201cIndonesia Unprepared as Great Powers Clash in Indo-Pacific,\u201d Foreign Policy,<\/p>\n

26 A\u011fustos 2021. https:\/\/foreignpolicy.com\/2021\/08\/26\/indonesia-china-us-geopolitics\/<\/a><\/p>\n

[ix]<\/a> Ronen Bergman ve Farnaz Fassihi, \u201cThe Scientist and the A.I.-Assisted, Remote-Control Killing,\u201d NYT. 18 Eyl\u00fcl 2021. https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2021\/09\/18\/world\/middleeast\/iran-nuclear-fakhrizadeh-assassination-israel.html<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>

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Son Amerikan askeri 30 A\u011fustos’ta Afganistan’\u0131 terk etti\u011finde d\u00fcnya ABD d\u0131\u015f politikas\u0131n\u0131n Ortado\u011fu ve Orta Asya’daki son yenilgilerinden birine tan\u0131k oldu. ABD’nin demokratik ve liberal bir devletmi\u015f gibi olu\u015fturmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 imaj\u0131 giri\u015fimi ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131z oldu. Afganistan’dan \u00e7ekilmenin ard\u0131ndan Ba\u015fkan Joe Biden, Amerika’n\u0131n Afganistan’daki misyonunun \u00fclkeye demokrasi<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":42,"featured_media":28980,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","ngg_post_thumbnail":0},"categories":[364],"tags":[],"asf_pub_issue":[],"asf_pub_region":[],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29255"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/42"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=29255"}],"version-history":[{"count":8,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29255\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":29341,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29255\/revisions\/29341"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/28980"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=29255"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=29255"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=29255"},{"taxonomy":"asf_pub_issue","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/asf_pub_issue?post=29255"},{"taxonomy":"asf_pub_region","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/asf_pub_region?post=29255"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}