{"id":29261,"date":"2021-11-02T12:08:30","date_gmt":"2021-11-02T09:08:30","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/?p=29261"},"modified":"2021-11-09T12:11:24","modified_gmt":"2021-11-09T09:11:24","slug":"son-gelismeler-isiginda-hts-kontrolundeki-idlibdeki-muhtemel-siyasi-ve-guvenlik-senaryolari","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/2021\/11\/02\/son-gelismeler-isiginda-hts-kontrolundeki-idlibdeki-muhtemel-siyasi-ve-guvenlik-senaryolari\/","title":{"rendered":"Son Geli\u015fmeler I\u015f\u0131\u011f\u0131nda HT\u015e Kontrol\u00fcndeki \u0130dlib\u2019deki Muhtemel Siyasi ve G\u00fcvenlik Senaryolar\u0131"},"content":{"rendered":"

(Bu metin Arap\u00e7a orijinal versiyonundan terc\u00fcme edilmi\u015ftir.)<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

Hi\u00e7 \u015f\u00fcphesiz T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin \u0130dlib\u2019deki askeri varl\u0131\u011f\u0131 Rusya ile T\u00fcrkiye aras\u0131nda var\u0131lan uzla\u015f\u0131ya ba\u011fl\u0131d\u0131r. 5 Mart 2020\u2019de T\u00fcrkiye Cumhurba\u015fkan\u0131 Recep Tayyip Erdo\u011fan ile Rusya Federasyonu Devlet Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Vladimir Putin aras\u0131nda imzalanan ve resmi olarak \u201c2018 So\u00e7i Anla\u015fmas\u0131 Ek Protokol\u00fc\u201d olarak adland\u0131r\u0131lan bu uzla\u015f\u0131, k\u0131r\u0131lgan olmas\u0131na ve maddelerinin uygulanmas\u0131nda ya\u015fanan zorluklara ra\u011fmen yakla\u015f\u0131k 20 ayd\u0131r devam ediyor. Uzla\u015f\u0131, ate\u015fkesin yan\u0131 s\u0131ra, Lazkiye\u2019yi \u0130dlib \u00fczerinden Esed rejimi kontrol\u00fcndeki Halep k\u0131rsal\u0131yla ba\u011flayan M4 otoyolunun kuzey ve g\u00fcneyinde 6 kilometrelik g\u00fcvenli ge\u00e7i\u015f b\u00f6lgesi olu\u015fturulmas\u0131n\u0131, yine M4 otoyolu \u00fczerinde 15 Mart\u2019tan itibaren T\u00fcrk-Rus kuvvetlerinin ortak devriye icra etmesini ve uluslararas\u0131 ter\u00f6r \u00f6rg\u00fctleri listesinde bulunan silahl\u0131 gruplara kar\u015f\u0131 m\u00fccadele edilmesini \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyordu.<\/p>\n

Uzla\u015f\u0131, \u0130dlib\u2019in g\u00fcneyindeki Belyun beldesi yak\u0131nlar\u0131nda bulunan bir T\u00fcrk \u00fcss\u00fcn\u00fc hedef alan ve 36 T\u00fcrk askerinin ya\u015fam\u0131n\u0131 yitirmesine sebep olan sald\u0131r\u0131n\u0131n getirdi\u011fi gerilimin ard\u0131ndan hayata ge\u00e7irilmi\u015fti. T\u00fcrkiye, bu sald\u0131r\u0131ya kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k Esed rejimi ve \u0130ran\u2019a ba\u011fl\u0131 militanlara y\u00f6nelik \u015fiddetli bombard\u0131manlar d\u00fczenlemi\u015f ve bu bombard\u0131manda L\u00fcbnan Hizbullah\u0131 da b\u00fcy\u00fck kay\u0131plar vermi\u015fti. T\u00fcrk ordusu ayr\u0131ca, muhalif gruplar\u0131n \u0130dlib\u2019in do\u011fusundaki stratejik Neyrab beldesini ele ge\u00e7irmesine yard\u0131m etmek i\u00e7in b\u00f6lgeye \u00e7ok say\u0131da asker g\u00f6ndermi\u015fti. Muhalif gruplar, her ne kadar Neyrab beldesini ele ge\u00e7irse de M4 ve M5 otoyollar\u0131n\u0131n birle\u015fti\u011fi stratejik bir noktada bulunan Serakib beldesini Rusya\u2019n\u0131n yo\u011fun hava sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131 ve Esed rejimi ile \u0130ran\u2019a ba\u011fl\u0131 militanlar\u0131n geni\u015f alanlardan ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirdi\u011fi sald\u0131r\u0131lar y\u00fcz\u00fcnden T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00e7apl\u0131 askeri yard\u0131m\u0131na ra\u011fmen geri almakta ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131z olmu\u015ftu.<\/p>\n

Mart 2020\u2019de ilan edilen ate\u015fkes ve uzla\u015f\u0131 T\u00fcrkiye\u2019yi \u00e7\u00f6zmesi gereken \u00e7e\u015fitli zorluklarla kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya b\u0131rakm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Bu zorluklar\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131nda g\u00fcvenli ge\u00e7i\u015flerin olu\u015fturularak muhalif gruplar\u0131n M4 \u00e7evresinden uzakla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 geliyordu. Buna ek olarak, uzla\u015f\u0131n\u0131n T\u00fcrkiye ile Rusya Savunma Bakanl\u0131klar\u0131 taraf\u0131ndan a\u00e7\u0131k \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fctlere oturtulamamas\u0131 iki \u00fclkenin g\u00fcvenli ge\u00e7i\u015f b\u00f6lgesi olu\u015fturmakta ba\u015far\u0131l\u0131 olmas\u0131n\u0131 engelledi. Uzla\u015f\u0131n\u0131n ilan\u0131ndan yaln\u0131zca 7 g\u00fcn sonras\u0131na tarihlenen ortak devriyelerin ba\u015flamas\u0131 hususunda ba\u015far\u0131 elde edilemedi. Zira, yaln\u0131zca birka\u00e7 devriye icra edilmi\u015f ve Rusya, \u0130dlib\u2019in Eriha beldesi yak\u0131nlar\u0131nda devriyelere y\u00f6nelik d\u00fczenlenen sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131 bahane ederek ortak devriyeleri ask\u0131ya alm\u0131\u015ft\u0131.<\/p>\n

Rusya a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan g\u00fcvenli ge\u00e7i\u015f b\u00f6lgesinde ge\u00e7i\u015flerin ba\u015flamas\u0131 \u00f6ncelik arz ediyor. T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin ise bu talebi \u0130dlib\u2019de yeni \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar olmaks\u0131z\u0131n kar\u015f\u0131lamas\u0131 zor g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin muhalif gruplar\u0131n hassasiyetlerini g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcne almas\u0131 nedeniyle M4 otoyolu ve g\u00fcvenli ge\u00e7i\u015f b\u00f6lgesi meselesini \u00e7\u00f6zmesinin zorlu\u011fu, Rusya\u2019n\u0131n kontrol\u00fcndeki Esed rejimini M4 otoyolunu ele ge\u00e7irmek i\u00e7in yeni sald\u0131r\u0131 ba\u015flatmaya itecektir. \u015e\u00fcphesiz bu durum muhaliflerin Cebel-i Zaviye b\u00f6lgesiyle olan ba\u011flant\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 kaybetmesine sebep olacakt\u0131r. Ayr\u0131ca b\u00f6yle bir durumda T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin b\u00f6lgedeki g\u00fc\u00e7 tekelini gereksiz h\u00e2le getirmekle birlikte sald\u0131r\u0131 ister \u011eab Ovas\u0131 ister Serakib isterse de ba\u015fka bir y\u00f6nden olsun on binlerce sivilin Cebel-i Zaviye\u2019den b\u00fcy\u00fck bir g\u00f6\u00e7 hareketi ba\u015flatmas\u0131na sebep olacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n

Sald\u0131r\u0131n\u0131n Etarib\u2019den ba\u015flayarak Sarmada \u00fczerinden Bab el-Hava s\u0131n\u0131r kap\u0131s\u0131na do\u011fru olma ihtimali uzak bir ihtimal de\u011fildir. Bu durumda T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin n\u00fcfuz b\u00f6lgeleri aras\u0131ndaki ba\u011flant\u0131 kopacak ve \u0130dlib\u2019in Afrin ve Halep\u2019in kuzey k\u0131rsal\u0131ndan ayr\u0131 muhaliflerin kontrol\u00fcnde k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck bir cep haline gelmesine sebep olacakt\u0131r. Akabinde muhalifler siyasi g\u00fc\u00e7lerini de yitirebilir.<\/p>\n

Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k Rusya\u2019n\u0131n 2015 y\u0131l\u0131ndan bu yana Suriye\u2019de uygulad\u0131\u011f\u0131 sava\u015f takti\u011fi \u015f\u00f6yle \u00f6zetlenebilir: Geride tehdit olu\u015fturabilecek cepler b\u0131rakmadan ilerlemek. Bu y\u00fczden rejimin b\u00fct\u00fcn \u0130dlib\u2019i ele ge\u00e7irme hedefi olmamas\u0131 h\u00e2linde yukar\u0131da i\u015faret etti\u011fimiz sald\u0131r\u0131n\u0131n olmas\u0131 pek m\u00fcmk\u00fcn g\u00f6r\u00fclmemektedir. Zira rejim, 2019 yaz\u0131nda ba\u015flatt\u0131\u011f\u0131 son sald\u0131r\u0131da Lattamine beldesini ku\u015fatma alt\u0131nda tutarken daha i\u00e7erdeki Han \u015eeyhun beldesini i\u015fgal etmi\u015f ve Lattamine\u2019de ba\u015fta yerel gruplardan Cey\u015fu\u2019l \u0130zze olmak \u00fczere muhalif gruplar\u0131n ciddi direni\u015fiyle kar\u015f\u0131la\u015farak b\u00fcy\u00fck kay\u0131plar vermi\u015fti. Ancak muhalif gruplar, tamamen ku\u015fatma alt\u0131na girme riski olmas\u0131 nedeniyle beldeden \u00e7ekilmi\u015fti.<\/p>\n

Bilindi\u011fi \u00fczere Heyet Tahrir el-\u015eam (HT\u015e), 2014 y\u0131l\u0131nda \u00d6zg\u00fcr Suriye Ordusu (\u00d6SO) ve 2017 y\u0131l\u0131nda Suriyeli \u0130slamc\u0131 \u00f6rg\u00fctlere kar\u015f\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc operasyonlar\u0131n ard\u0131ndan askeri ve g\u00fcvenlik a\u00e7\u0131dan \u0130dlib\u2019de tamamen n\u00fcfuz kurmu\u015ftur. 2020 bahar\u0131ndan itibaren ise HT\u015e, kendi projesi d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda kalan rakip cihat\u00e7\u0131 olu\u015fumlara kar\u015f\u0131 operasyonlar\u0131n\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Bu operasyonlar neticesinde \u0130dlib\u2019deki Irak-\u015eam \u0130slam Devleti (I\u015e\u0130D) kal\u0131nt\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fck oranda yok etmeyi ba\u015far\u0131rken, g\u00fcnl\u00fck olarak \u00f6rg\u00fcte operasyon yapmaya devam ediyor. HT\u015e ayr\u0131ca, kendisinden ayr\u0131l\u0131\u015flar\u0131 da minimize ederek, \u00f6rg\u00fctl\u00fcl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc bozmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015fan herkese demir yumruk indirmeyi ba\u015fard\u0131. Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede, HT\u015e\u2019nin Kalamun B\u00f6lge Komutan\u0131 \u015eeyh Ebu Malik el-Teli, \u00f6rg\u00fctten ayr\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ilan etmesinin ard\u0131ndan \u00f6rg\u00fct taraf\u0131ndan tutukland\u0131. HT\u015e, El Kaide\u2019ye biat\u0131n\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcren k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck bir cihat\u00e7\u0131 grup olan Hurras ed-Din \u00f6rg\u00fct\u00fcn\u00fc de zay\u0131flat\u0131rken, be\u015f cihat\u00e7\u0131 grup taraf\u0131ndan (Hurras ed-Din, Cephe Ensar ed-Din ve ba\u015fka 3 grup daha) ortak cephe kurulmas\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki giri\u015fimleri de engelledi. Son olarak HT\u015e, \u0130dlib\u2019deki cephe hatlar\u0131nda bulunan \u00c7e\u00e7en sava\u015f\u00e7\u0131lardan da silahlar\u0131n\u0131 teslim ederek \u0130dlib\u2019den ayr\u0131lmalar\u0131n\u0131 istedi.<\/p>\n

HT\u015e, \u0130dlib\u2019de kurdu\u011fu g\u00fcvenlik otoritesine ra\u011fmen \u201ckimli\u011fi belirsiz\u201d ki\u015filerin T\u00fcrkiye ve Rusya taraf\u0131ndan M4 otoyolunda ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirilen askeri devriyelere sald\u0131r\u0131lar d\u00fczenlemesini engelleyemedi. Bununla birlikte, HT\u015e\u2019nin bu sald\u0131r\u0131larda parma\u011f\u0131 olma ihtimali \u00e7ok uzak de\u011fildir. E\u011fer durum g\u00f6sterildi\u011fi gibiyse bu sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n HT\u015e\u2019nin i\u015fine geldi\u011fi s\u00f6ylenebilir. Zira HT\u015e, M4 otoyolunun g\u00fcvenli\u011fini sa\u011flama noktas\u0131nda vekil olmak istemektedir. Bunun ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesi cihat\u00e7\u0131 vasatta HT\u015e\u2019ye y\u00f6nelik ele\u015ftirilerin dozunu artt\u0131rabilir ancak radikal gruplar\u0131n varl\u0131\u011f\u0131ndansa HT\u015e\u2019nin g\u00fcvenli\u011fi sa\u011flayabilen bir polis olarak \u0130dlib\u2019de var olmas\u0131 daha tercih edilir bulunmaktad\u0131r. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla denilebilir ki; \u0130dlib\u2019deki radikal cihat\u00e7\u0131 gruplar aras\u0131ndaki m\u00fccadele sona ermek \u00fczere. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc HT\u015e b\u00f6lgede fiili olarak h\u00e2kim durumda.<\/p>\n

Bunlara binaen HT\u015e\u2019nin \u0130dlib\u2019de kendi otoritesini dayatt\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00f6ylenebilir. Buna paralel olarak HT\u015e\u2019nin uluslararas\u0131 toplumun i\u015f birli\u011fi yapabilece\u011fi ve g\u00fcvenli\u011fin sa\u011flanarak cihat\u00e7\u0131 gruplar\u0131n tasfiye edilmesinde kullan\u0131labilece\u011fi propagandas\u0131 da s\u00fcrmektedir. HT\u015e ve lideri Ebu Muhammed el-Cevlani\u2019nin imaj\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fczeltme propagandas\u0131 \u015fu 4 unsur \u00fczerine bina edilmi\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fclmektedir:<\/p>\n