{"id":31498,"date":"2022-03-15T11:59:51","date_gmt":"2022-03-15T08:59:51","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/?p=31498"},"modified":"2022-05-12T14:53:00","modified_gmt":"2022-05-12T11:53:00","slug":"libyanin-liderlik-kaosu-sonucsuz-secimlere-ve-degisen-ittifaklara-dair","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/2022\/03\/15\/libyanin-liderlik-kaosu-sonucsuz-secimlere-ve-degisen-ittifaklara-dair\/","title":{"rendered":"Libya\u2019n\u0131n Liderlik Kaosu: Sonu\u00e7suz Se\u00e7imlere ve De\u011fi\u015fen \u0130ttifaklara Dair"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"\" Inga Kristina Trauthig<\/a> \"\" Lukas Kupfernagel<\/a>      <\/i> 15 Mart 2022<\/span><\/h6><\/div><\/div><\/div>
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PDF \u0130ndir<\/span><\/a><\/div><\/div><\/div>
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Uzman G\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fc<\/a> \/ \/ <\/h6><\/div><\/div><\/div>
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(Bu metin \u0130ngilizce orijinal versiyonundan terc\u00fcme edilmi\u015ftir.)<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

\u00d6zet:<\/strong> Libya\u2019da Bat\u0131-merkezli Trablus g\u00fc\u00e7leriyle Do\u011fu-merkezli Bingazi ve Tobruk g\u00fc\u00e7leri aras\u0131nda yerle\u015fmi\u015f \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma hatlar\u0131 s\u00fcrse de son geli\u015fmeler bunlar\u0131n Libya\u2019n\u0131n gelece\u011findeki \u00f6neminin sorgulanmas\u0131na yol a\u00e7t\u0131. Analistler h\u00e2l\u00e2 bunun sadece ulusal d\u00fczeyde de\u011fil ayn\u0131 zamanda \u00fclkede \u00e7\u0131karlar\u0131 bulunan say\u0131s\u0131z d\u0131\u015f akt\u00f6rle ili\u015fkili sonu\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 anlamaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131yor. Bu uzman g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fc Libya\u2019daki geli\u015fmeler hakk\u0131nda genel kavray\u0131\u015flar sunup Libyal\u0131 kilit akt\u00f6rlerin ba\u015fkanl\u0131k m\u00fccadelesinin genel bir g\u00f6r\u00fcnt\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fc anlatt\u0131ktan sonra yabanc\u0131 \u00fclkeler ve Birle\u015fmi\u015f Milletler (BM) gibi uluslararas\u0131 kurulu\u015flar i\u00e7in sonu\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 ele al\u0131yor. Yaz\u0131, ittifaklardaki son kaymalar\u0131n uzun vadeli sonu\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131n \u015fu an i\u00e7in belirsiz ancak yak\u0131n siyasi etkisinin a\u00e7\u0131k oldu\u011funu savunuyor: Libya halk\u0131 bir kez daha giderek sadece kendine odaklanan siyasal elitlerin bir g\u00fc\u00e7 m\u00fccadelesinin ortas\u0131nda kald\u0131.<\/p>\n

Giri\u015f<\/strong><\/p>\n

Bir y\u0131l \u00f6nce Libya, Birle\u015fmi\u015f Milletler \u00f6nc\u00fcl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcndeki m\u00fczakere s\u00fcrecinin (LPDF) k\u00e2\u011f\u0131t \u00fczerinde \u00fclkenin t\u00fcm kesimlerini temsil eden bir h\u00fck\u00fcmet kurmas\u0131yla birlikte potansiyel olarak prosed\u00fcrel bir demokrasi olma yoluna girmi\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyordu. Ba\u015fbakan Abdulhamid Dibeybe liderli\u011findeki bu Ulusal Birlik H\u00fck\u00fcmeti (UBH) yeni temsilci ve kurumlara se\u00e7im me\u015fruiyeti kazand\u0131rma ama\u00e7l\u0131 se\u00e7imlerle de\u011fi\u015ftirilecek bir ge\u00e7ici h\u00fck\u00fcmet olarak tasarlanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131.<\/p>\n

Birle\u015fme yolundaki bu karars\u0131z ad\u0131mlar\u0131n ard\u0131ndan iki rakip ba\u015fbakan\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7 iddia etmesiyle \u00fclke bir kez daha i\u00e7 iktidar oyunlar\u0131na sahne oluyor.[i]<\/a> Ancak ittifaklar kendilerini yeniden \u015fekillendiriyor ve \u2018Do\u011fu Libya\u2019ya kar\u015f\u0131 Bat\u0131 Libya\u2019 \u015feklindeki eski indirgemeci ayr\u0131m \u00f6nemini yitiriyor. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc Libya\u2019da Do\u011fu\u2019nun fiili g\u00fc\u00e7 simsar\u0131 Halife Hafter \u015fimdi \u00f6nceki Ulusal Mutabakat H\u00fck\u00fcmeti\u2019nin (UMH) \u0130\u00e7i\u015fleri Bakan\u0131 ve Libya\u2019n\u0131n Bat\u0131\u2019daki en g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kentlerinden biri olan Misratal\u0131 \u00f6nde gelen siyaset\u00e7i Fethi Ba\u015fa\u011fa\u2019y\u0131 destekliyor.[ii]<\/a> Bu hamleyle Hafter, kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131ndaki Bat\u0131 cephesini k\u0131rmay\u0131 umuyor olabilir ki bu h\u0131rslar\u0131 i\u00e7in hayati \u00f6nem ta\u015f\u0131yor. Dahas\u0131, Misrata milisleri Hafter\u2019in 2020\u2019de Libya\u2019n\u0131n ba\u015fkenti Trablus\u2019a kar\u015f\u0131 d\u00fczenledi\u011fi son sald\u0131r\u0131n\u0131n nihai olarak p\u00fcsk\u00fcrt\u00fclmesinde kilit bir rol oynam\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Yine de bu yak\u0131nla\u015fma \u00e7o\u011fu zaman yerel saiklerle hareket eden Misrata ve Trablus milislerinin ba\u011fl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131na dayand\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in istikrarl\u0131 olmaktan uzak.<\/p>\n

Libya i\u00e7in ilk ciddi s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131 emareleri ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n sonlar\u0131nda cumhurba\u015fkanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 se\u00e7imlerinin Libya\u2019n\u0131n \u0130talya\u2019dan ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 kazanmas\u0131n\u0131n 60.y\u0131ld\u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fc olan 24 Aral\u0131k 2021\u2019den s\u00fcresiz olarak ertelenmesiyle ortaya \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Ertelemenin alt\u0131nda ehil adaylar ve oylaman\u0131n temel kurallar\u0131 hakk\u0131ndaki anla\u015fmazl\u0131k yat\u0131yordu. Ulusal ve uluslararas\u0131 g\u00f6zlemciler Ulusal Se\u00e7imler Y\u00fcksek Kurulu\u2019na (USYK) s\u00fcreci haz\u0131rlamas\u0131 i\u00e7in yasal bir \u00e7er\u00e7eve sunma konusundaki isteksizlik nedeniyle hayal k\u0131r\u0131kl\u0131\u011f\u0131 ya\u015fam\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Ka\u00e7\u0131r\u0131lan bir ba\u015fka tarih cumhurba\u015fkan\u0131 adaylar\u0131n\u0131 arafta b\u0131rakm\u0131\u015f ve \u015fiddete d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f ihtimali yava\u015f yava\u015f y\u00fckseliyor gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyordu.<\/p>\n

Birle\u015fmi\u015f Milletler Libya \u00d6zel Temsilcisi ve Birle\u015fmi\u015f Milletler Libya Destek Misyonu\u2019nun (BMLDM) \u00f6nceki Ba\u015fkan Yard\u0131mc\u0131s\u0131 Stephanie Williams, daha \u00f6nce Libya \u201csiyasi elitinin iktidarda kalmak i\u00e7in k\u00f6\u015fe kapmaca oynamaktan vazge\u00e7ip bunun yerine \u00fclke genelinde se\u00e7imlerin yap\u0131lmas\u0131na haz\u0131rlanmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini\u201d[iii]<\/a> vurgulam\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Hatta potansiyel g\u00fcvenlik bo\u015fluklar\u0131 gibi Libya\u2019da iki h\u00fck\u00fcmet bulunmas\u0131ndan kaynaklanan karma\u015fan\u0131n Libya \u0130slam Devleti\u2019nin (L\u0130D) yeniden g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesine yol a\u00e7abilece\u011fi uyar\u0131s\u0131nda bulunmu\u015ftu. L\u0130D zaten uzun bir s\u00fcredir Libya\u2019n\u0131n g\u00fcneyinde d\u00fczenli olarak Libya Ulusal Ordusu (LUO) askerlerine y\u00f6nelik sald\u0131r\u0131, rehin alma ve \u00f6ld\u00fcrme faaliyetlerinde bulundu\u011fundan bu uyar\u0131, \u00fclkedeki L\u0130D faaliyetlerinin kapsaml\u0131 ve uzun vadeli bir de\u011ferlendirmesinden ziyade uluslararas\u0131 politika yap\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131n Libya\u2019daki geli\u015fmeleri ciddiye almas\u0131na y\u00f6nelik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Hatta L\u0130D, kendilerini \u201cayakta kal\u0131p geni\u015fliyor\u201d[iv]<\/a> g\u00f6sterme stratejilerinin bir par\u00e7as\u0131 olarak 2018\u2019deki HNEC sald\u0131r\u0131s\u0131 gibi \u00fcst d\u00fczey sald\u0131r\u0131larda bulunmay\u0131 ba\u015farm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. \u00d6nceki ifade ise Libyal\u0131 elitlerin hatalar\u0131n\u0131n sonu\u00e7lar\u0131na y\u00f6nelik dokunakl\u0131 bir hat\u0131rlatmayd\u0131. Williams, do\u011fu merkezli parlamento olan Temsilciler Meclisi\u2019nin (TM) m\u00fcmk\u00fcnse yak\u0131n bir tarihte se\u00e7im s\u00fcrecini ray\u0131na oturtmak i\u00e7in muteber bir siyasi s\u00fcreci ba\u015flatmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fi fikrinde \u0131srarc\u0131yd\u0131. Mevcut geli\u015fmeler bu hususta b\u00fcy\u00fck bir geriye gidi\u015f oldu. Ayr\u0131ca kendisinin \u00f6zel temsilci olarak gelece\u011fi Rusya\u2019n\u0131n yetki yenilemelerine (yeniden) m\u00fcdahalesi nedeniyle sorgulanmaya ba\u015fland\u0131.[v]<\/a><\/p>\n

Do\u011fu merkezli parlamento (TM) Williams\u2019\u0131n korkular\u0131n\u0131 do\u011frularcas\u0131na Fethi Ba\u015fa\u011fa\u2019y\u0131 yeni bir h\u00fck\u00fcmet kurmakla g\u00f6revlendirip se\u00e7imlerin 14 ay i\u00e7erisinde yap\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 teklif etti. Ba\u015fa\u011fa\u2019n\u0131n atan\u0131p Dibeybe\u2019nin e\u015fzamanl\u0131 olarak azledilmesinin nedeni Dibeybe\u2019nin Aral\u0131k 2021\u2019de se\u00e7imler yap\u0131lana kadar devam etmesi gereken ba\u015fbakanl\u0131k s\u00fcresinin dolmu\u015f olmas\u0131yd\u0131. Fakat gerek ulusal gerekse uluslararas\u0131 politikac\u0131lar bu geli\u015fmenin hem hukuki hem de pratikli\u011fi \u00fczerinde b\u00f6l\u00fcnm\u00fc\u015f durumda. Bir yandan Libya Siyasi Diyalog Forumu\u2019nun (LSDF) belirledi\u011fi kurallar uyar\u0131nca Dibeybe h\u00fck\u00fcmetinin Haziran 2022\u2019ye kadar g\u00f6revde kalmas\u0131 gerekirken \u00f6te yandan Dibeybe \u015fimdi g\u00f6rev s\u00fcresinin yeni se\u00e7ilmi\u015f bir h\u00fck\u00fcmet kurulana kadar devam etmesi gerekti\u011fini savunuyor.[vi]<\/a><\/p>\n

Bu durum yabanc\u0131 akt\u00f6rleri yeni bir ger\u00e7eklikle kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya b\u0131rak\u0131yor. Baz\u0131lar\u0131 Ba\u015fa\u011fa-Hafter ittifak\u0131n\u0131n Hafter\u2019in kal\u0131c\u0131 destek\u00e7ilerine (Birle\u015fik Arap Emirlikleri, M\u0131s\u0131r ve Fransa) dayanabilece\u011fi spek\u00fclasyonunda bulunurken[vii]<\/a> baz\u0131lar\u0131ysa Katar\u2019\u0131n bu kampa kat\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 ama BAE\u2019nin deste\u011fini Dibeybe lehine de\u011fi\u015ftirip ABD, \u0130talya ve Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k gibi \u00fclkelerin saf\u0131na ge\u00e7ti\u011fi muhtemel bir senaryo \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor.[viii]<\/a> T\u00fcrkiye Cumhurba\u015fkan\u0131 Erdo\u011fan ge\u00e7mi\u015fte Ba\u015fa\u011fa ile \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve s\u00f6ylenenlere g\u00f6re onu sevdi\u011fi i\u00e7in ince eleyip s\u0131k dokuyor. Ba\u015fa\u011fa, \u00f6zellikle T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin Trablus\u2019un yan\u0131nda m\u00fcdahale etti\u011fi ve 2021\u2019de \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n seyrini Halife Hafter aleyhine de\u011fi\u015ftirdi\u011fi i\u00e7i\u015fleri bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6revi s\u0131ras\u0131nda T\u00fcrkiye ile yak\u0131n ili\u015fkiler geli\u015ftirmi\u015fti. Fakat 2022\u2019de Ankara resmi olarak Dibeybe\u2019yi destekliyor \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc kendisi h\u00e2lihaz\u0131rda T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin k\u00e2rl\u0131 in\u015faat kontratlar\u0131na eri\u015fim gibi \u00e7\u0131karlar\u0131n\u0131n ba\u015f muhaf\u0131z\u0131 olarak de\u011ferlendiriliyor.[ix]<\/a> Analistler bu geli\u015fmelerin Libya\u2019da \u015fiddetin patlak verme ihtimali i\u00e7in ne ifade etti\u011fi konusundaki de\u011ferlendirmelerinde b\u00f6l\u00fcnm\u00fc\u015f vaziyette. Baz\u0131lar\u0131 bu paralel yap\u0131lara d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn daha fazla \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma ihtimalini artt\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 savunurken[x]<\/a> baz\u0131lar\u0131 da \u00f6nceki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma hatlar\u0131n\u0131 a\u015fan ittifak in\u015fa s\u00fcre\u00e7leri nedeniyle k\u0131sa vadede \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n pek muhtemel olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 iddias\u0131nda.[xi]<\/a> Dahas\u0131, Libyal\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lere olan d\u0131\u015f deste\u011fi yak\u0131ndan g\u00f6zlemlemek gerekiyor ve \u015fu anda bu konuda belirsizlik h\u00e2kim. Rusya\u2019n\u0131n Ukrayna i\u015fgalinin de\u011fi\u015fen jeopolitik ittifaklar \u00fczerindeki etkisini zaman g\u00f6sterecek.[xii]<\/a><\/p>\n

Birle\u015fmi\u015f Milletler Libya\u2019da se\u00e7imlerin yap\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 savunan en g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc akt\u00f6rd\u00fc ve \u015fimdi iki ba\u015fbakan aras\u0131ndaki tats\u0131z bir a\u00e7mazla kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya b\u0131rak\u0131ld\u0131. 24 \u015eubat\u2019ta medyada BM\u2019nin h\u00e2l\u00e2 Dibeybe\u2019yi Libya lideri olarak g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc s\u00f6yledi ve bu da hemen BM\u2019nin bir aday\u0131 di\u011ferine tercih ederek Libya siyasetine uygunsuzca m\u00fcdahale etti\u011fi ele\u015ftirilerine yol a\u00e7t\u0131. Bunun ard\u0131ndan BM Genel Sekreteri (BMGS) Antonio Guterres, Dibeybe veya Ba\u015fa\u011fa\u2019y\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131k\u00e7a zikretmeyen ama \u201ct\u00fcm taraflar\u0131 Libya\u2019n\u0131n istikrar\u0131n\u0131 korumay\u0131 \u00f6ncelemeye devam etmeye\u201d davet eden bir a\u00e7\u0131klama yap\u0131p Libya parlamentosunun Ba\u015fa\u011fa\u2019y\u0131 ba\u015fbakan tayin eden \u201coylamas\u0131n\u0131 not etti\u011fini\u201d s\u00f6yledi.[xiii]<\/a><\/p>\n

Bu uzman g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fc bu geli\u015fmelerin mevcut koalisyon ve ittifaklar\u0131 nas\u0131l \u015fekillendirdi\u011fi sorusunu cevaplamaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131yor. Bu y\u00fczden cumhurba\u015fkanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 se\u00e7imlerinde yar\u0131\u015fmaya ilk te\u015febb\u00fcs eden ama \u015fu anda g\u00fc\u00e7 iddias\u0131nda bulunup devlet kaynaklar\u0131na eri\u015fmek i\u00e7in k\u0131smen uzla\u015f\u0131 yoluna girenler hakk\u0131nda genel bir de\u011ferlendirme de sunuyor.<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>

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Libya\u2019da Bat\u0131-merkezli Trablus g\u00fc\u00e7leriyle Do\u011fu-merkezli Bingazi ve Tobruk g\u00fc\u00e7leri aras\u0131nda yerle\u015fmi\u015f \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma hatlar\u0131 s\u00fcrse de son geli\u015fmeler bunlar\u0131n Libya\u2019n\u0131n gelece\u011findeki \u00f6neminin sorgulanmas\u0131na yol a\u00e7t\u0131<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":239,"featured_media":31031,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","ngg_post_thumbnail":0},"categories":[361],"tags":[],"asf_pub_issue":[],"asf_pub_region":[10321],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/31498"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/239"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=31498"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/31498\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":32264,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/31498\/revisions\/32264"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/31031"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=31498"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=31498"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=31498"},{"taxonomy":"asf_pub_issue","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/asf_pub_issue?post=31498"},{"taxonomy":"asf_pub_region","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/asf_pub_region?post=31498"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}