{"id":34302,"date":"2022-08-29T15:58:56","date_gmt":"2022-08-29T12:58:56","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/?p=34302"},"modified":"2022-09-01T15:55:56","modified_gmt":"2022-09-01T12:55:56","slug":"turkiye-ekonomisi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/2022\/08\/29\/turkiye-ekonomisi\/","title":{"rendered":"T\u00fcrkiye Ekonomisine Panoramik Bir Bak\u0131\u015f"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"fusion-fullwidth fullwidth-box fusion-builder-row-1 nonhundred-percent-fullwidth non-hundred-percent-height-scrolling\" style=\"--awb-border-radius-top-left:0px;--awb-border-radius-top-right:0px;--awb-border-radius-bottom-right:0px;--awb-border-radius-bottom-left:0px;\" ><div class=\"fusion-builder-row fusion-row\"><div class=\"fusion-layout-column fusion_builder_column fusion-builder-column-0 fusion_builder_column_1_1 1_1 fusion-one-full fusion-column-first fusion-column-last\" style=\"--awb-padding-top:20px;--awb-padding-right:20px;--awb-padding-bottom:20px;--awb-padding-left:20px;--awb-bg-size:cover;--awb-box-shadow:2px 2px 20px 2px #dddddd;;--awb-margin-bottom:0px;\"><div class=\"fusion-column-wrapper fusion-column-has-shadow fusion-flex-column-wrapper-legacy\"><div class=\"fusion-text fusion-text-1\"><h2 style=\"text-align: justify;\">T\u00fcrkiye Ekonomisine Panoramik Bir Bak\u0131\u015f<\/h2>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">2023 se\u00e7imleri i\u00e7in art\u0131k geri say\u0131m ba\u015flam\u0131\u015fken T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin g\u00fcndeminde her zamankinden daha fazla ekonomi var. H\u00fck\u00fcmetin en b\u00fcy\u00fck zorlu\u011fu fiyat istikrar\u0131n\u0131 tesis etmek gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. T\u00fcrkiye 1990\u2019larda b\u0131rakt\u0131\u011f\u0131 y\u00fcksek enflasyon ko\u015fullar\u0131na geri d\u00f6nerken, d\u00f6viz kurlar\u0131n\u0131n istikrar\u0131 konusunda da tam bir ba\u015far\u0131 sa\u011flanabilmi\u015f de\u011fil.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Fakat istihdam, ihracat ve sanayi \u00fcretimi istatistiklerinde \u00e7o\u011fu analistin g\u00f6z ard\u0131 etti\u011fi uzun vadeli bir pozitif trend e\u015f zamanl\u0131 olarak devam ediyor. Y\u00fcksek enflasyon ve y\u00fcksek kur d\u00fczeylerine ba\u011fl\u0131 toplumun geni\u015f kesimlerinde al\u0131m g\u00fcc\u00fc kayb\u0131yla beraber i\u015fsizlik oranlar\u0131nda d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f ve sanayi \u00fcretiminde ciddi bir art\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisi i\u00e7in \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki d\u00f6nemin testi reel ekonomideki pozitif trendleri bozmadan makroiktisadi dengenin sa\u011flanmas\u0131 gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisinin son d\u00f6nemine damga vuran dinamik hi\u00e7 \u015f\u00fcphesiz y\u00fcksek enflasyon. 1990\u2019larda zaman zaman y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %100\u2019\u00fc a\u015fan enflasyon oranlar\u0131 2000\u2019lerin ba\u015f\u0131ndan itibaren T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de dizginlenmi\u015f, hatta tek haneye kadar d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fclebilmi\u015fti.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">2017 y\u0131l\u0131ndan sonra bu trend tersine d\u00f6nm\u00fc\u015f ve son d\u00f6nemde iyice kontrolden \u00e7\u0131km\u0131\u015f gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Temmuz 2022 itibar\u0131yla \u00f6nceki 12 ay\u0131n enflasyon oran\u0131 %79,6 ile uzun y\u0131llard\u0131r g\u00f6r\u00fclmeyen seviyelere \u00e7\u0131km\u0131\u015f oldu<a href=\"#_edn1\" name=\"_ednref1\">[i]<\/a>. G\u00fcndelik hayatta hissedilen y\u00fcksek enflasyon ortam\u0131 90\u2019lar\u0131n k\u00f6t\u00fc hat\u0131ralar\u0131n\u0131 canland\u0131r\u0131yor.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-34312 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/Turkey-Ekonomis-1.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"603\" height=\"338\" srcset=\"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/Turkey-Ekonomis-1-200x112.png 200w, https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/Turkey-Ekonomis-1-300x168.png 300w, https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/Turkey-Ekonomis-1-400x225.png 400w, https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/Turkey-Ekonomis-1-600x337.png 600w, https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/Turkey-Ekonomis-1-768x431.png 768w, https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/Turkey-Ekonomis-1-800x449.png 800w, https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/Turkey-Ekonomis-1-1024x575.png 1024w, https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/Turkey-Ekonomis-1-1200x674.png 1200w, https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/Turkey-Ekonomis-1-1536x862.png 1536w, https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/Turkey-Ekonomis-1.png 1842w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 603px) 100vw, 603px\" title=\"\"><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Enflasyonun etkenleri konusunda yap\u0131lan tart\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131n\u0131n merkezinde \u015f\u00fcphesiz Cumhurba\u015fkan\u0131 Erdo\u011fan\u2019\u0131n y\u00fckselen enflasyona ra\u011fmen faizlerin d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck tutulmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fi y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki \u0131srarl\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131 var. Olduk\u00e7a heterodoks bu yakla\u015f\u0131m bir\u00e7ok ekonomist ve muhalefet politikac\u0131lar\u0131 taraf\u0131ndan \u015fiddetle ele\u015ftiriliyor. Erdo\u011fan\u2019\u0131n ana ak\u0131m anlay\u0131\u015fa ayk\u0131r\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131n\u0131n bilimsel olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve makroiktisadi dengeyi alt\u00fcst etti\u011fi y\u00fcksek sesle dillendiriliyor. H\u00fck\u00fcmet \u00e7evrelerine g\u00f6re ise T\u00fcrkiye art\u0131k reel faizleri y\u00fcksek tutarak d\u0131\u015f finansman sa\u011flama stratejisinden vazge\u00e7ti; T\u00fcrk liras\u0131ndaki de\u011fer kayb\u0131 g\u00f6ze al\u0131narak reel faizler d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck tutuluyor ve \u00fcretim te\u015fvik ediliyor.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Yine bu anlay\u0131\u015fa g\u00f6re T\u00fcrk liras\u0131ndaki de\u011fer kayb\u0131 T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisinin kronik problemi olan cari dengesizlikte iyile\u015fme sa\u011flayacak ve \u00f6demeler dengesindeki iyile\u015fme de d\u00f6viz kurlar\u0131ndaki istikrars\u0131zl\u0131\u011f\u0131 ortadan kald\u0131racak. D\u00f6viz kurlar\u0131ndaki istikrar da nihayet fiyat istikrar\u0131na katk\u0131 yapacak ve enflasyona kal\u0131c\u0131 ve yap\u0131sal bir \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm \u00fcretilmi\u015f olacak. 2021 Mart ay\u0131nda Cumhurba\u015fkan\u0131n\u0131n beklenmedik bir kararla Naci A\u011fbal\u2019\u0131 Merkez Bankas\u0131 ba\u015fkanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6revinden almas\u0131 ve yerine d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faizi destekleyen g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fleriyle tan\u0131nan \u015eahap Kavc\u0131o\u011flu\u2019nu atamas\u0131 h\u00fck\u00fcmetin bu yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131 takip etmekteki kararl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Kavc\u0131o\u011flu g\u00f6reve geldi\u011fi g\u00fcnden bu yana enflasyondaki art\u0131\u015fa ra\u011fmen politika faizi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Kavc\u0131o\u011flu g\u00f6reve geldikten sonraki yaz aylar\u0131nda <a href=\"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/2022\/06\/09\/turkiyede-goc-meselesi\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-schema-attribute=\"mentions\">T\u00fcrkiye<\/a> ekonomisinin nadir d\u00f6nemlerinden birini ya\u015fayarak cari fazlayla birlikte b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faiz politikas\u0131na olan ba\u011fl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 per\u00e7inlemi\u015f gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Fakat sonraki aylarda TL\u2019nin de\u011fer kayb\u0131 beklenenin aksine cari a\u00e7\u0131kta bir iyile\u015fme sa\u011flamad\u0131. \u0130hracatta her ay k\u0131r\u0131lan rekorlara ra\u011fmen ithalat daha h\u0131zl\u0131 artt\u0131.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Do\u011frusu, hacim olarak (sabit fiyatlarla) ihracat-ithalat dengesinde ciddi bir iyile\u015fme, hatta pozitife d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmi\u015f gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor, fakat bozulan d\u0131\u015f ticaret hadleri (k\u00fcresel emtia fiyatlar\u0131ndaki y\u00fckseli\u015f) y\u00fcz\u00fcnden cari a\u00e7\u0131k daha da b\u00fcy\u00fcd\u00fc. Bu durum h\u00fck\u00fcmetin de\u011fer kaybeden TL ile birlikte cari dengede ciddi bir iyile\u015fme olaca\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki beklentisini de kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131ks\u0131z b\u0131rakm\u0131\u015f oldu<a href=\"#_edn2\" name=\"_ednref2\">[ii]<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-34309 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/Turkey-Economi-2.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"668\" height=\"377\" srcset=\"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/Turkey-Economi-2-200x113.png 200w, https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/Turkey-Economi-2-300x169.png 300w, https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/Turkey-Economi-2-400x226.png 400w, https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/Turkey-Economi-2-600x339.png 600w, https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/Turkey-Economi-2-768x434.png 768w, https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/Turkey-Economi-2-800x452.png 800w, https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/Turkey-Economi-2-1024x578.png 1024w, https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/Turkey-Economi-2-1200x678.png 1200w, https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/Turkey-Economi-2-1536x867.png 1536w, https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/Turkey-Economi-2.png 1838w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 668px) 100vw, 668px\" title=\"\"><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Cari a\u00e7\u0131kta beklentilerin ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmemesinin birka\u00e7 \u00f6nemli sonucu var. Birincisi, h\u00fck\u00fcmetin cari a\u00e7\u0131kta dengenin sa\u011flanmas\u0131yla \u00fclke ekonomisinin d\u0131\u015f finansmana olan ihtiyac\u0131n\u0131n azalaca\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki beklentisi ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmedi. Aksine T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin finansman ihtiyac\u0131 devam ediyor. Reel getirilerin derin negatif alanda oldu\u011fu mevcut durumda finansman ihtiyac\u0131n\u0131 serbest piyasa yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 kanal\u0131yla kar\u015f\u0131lamak da m\u00fcmk\u00fcn de\u011fil. Nitekim T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de yabanc\u0131 finansal yat\u0131r\u0131m oran\u0131 10 y\u0131l \u00f6ncesine g\u00f6re olduk\u00e7a d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck. H\u00fck\u00fcmet planda olmayan bu finans a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 h\u00fck\u00fcmetler d\u00fczeyinde \u00f6zellikle k\u00f6rfez \u00fclkeleri ve yak\u0131n ge\u00e7mi\u015fte Rusya ile yap\u0131lan anla\u015fmalar vas\u0131tas\u0131yla sa\u011flamaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131yor<a href=\"#_edn3\" name=\"_ednref3\">[iii]<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\u0130kinci olarak, cari dengedeki iyile\u015fme sayesinde d\u00f6viz kurlar\u0131n\u0131n stabilize olaca\u011f\u0131 ve dolay\u0131s\u0131yla enflasyondaki seyrin de de\u011fi\u015fece\u011fi y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki beklenti de ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmedi. Her ne kadar aral\u0131k ay\u0131nda y\u00fcr\u00fcrl\u00fc\u011f\u00fc konulan kur korumal\u0131 mevduat (KKM) uygulamas\u0131 yast\u0131k alt\u0131ndaki ve \u015firket hesaplar\u0131ndaki d\u00f6viz birikimini bir miktar \u00e7\u00f6zm\u00fc\u015f ve b\u00f6ylece d\u00f6viz kurlar\u0131nda ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz Kas\u0131m-Aral\u0131k aylar\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fclen yang\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6nd\u00fcrm\u00fc\u015fse de y\u00fcksek cari a\u00e7\u0131k dolay\u0131s\u0131yla kurlar \u00fczerindeki stres ve istikrarl\u0131 art\u0131\u015f h\u00e2l\u00e2 devam ediyor. Her hal\u00fck\u00e2rda ne cari dengede ne de enflasyon oranlar\u0131nda en az\u0131ndan \u015fimdilik herhangi bir iyile\u015fme sa\u011flanamam\u0131\u015f durumda.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Makro-iktisadi g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcmdeki kusursuz f\u0131rt\u0131nan\u0131n \u00f6tesine bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin reel ekonomisinde olduk\u00e7a farkl\u0131 trendler g\u00f6ze bat\u0131yor. Ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz 12 ayda T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisi 2,1 milyon yeni istihdam yaratt\u0131<a href=\"#_edn4\" name=\"_ednref4\">[iv]<\/a>. Ayn\u0131 d\u00f6nemde sanayi \u00fcretiminde %8,5\u2019lik bir art\u0131\u015f ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti<a href=\"#_edn5\" name=\"_ednref5\">[v]<\/a>. Sanayide kapasite kullan\u0131m oranlar\u0131 y\u00fcksek seviyelerde seyretmeye devam ederken sabit yat\u0131r\u0131mlarda da pozitif bir tren uzun zamand\u0131r devam ediyor<a href=\"#_edn6\" name=\"_ednref6\">[vi]<\/a>. Sanayi karl\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131 da hem reel olarak hem de dolar baz\u0131nda art\u0131yor. \u0130hracat istatistikleri istikrarl\u0131 ve anlaml\u0131 \u015fekilde artmaya devam ediyor<a href=\"#_edn7\" name=\"_ednref7\">[vii]<\/a>. T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de sanayi sekt\u00f6r\u00fc bir bahar mevsimi ya\u015f\u0131yor desek abartm\u0131\u015f olmay\u0131z.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-34306 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/Turkey-Economi-3.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"560\" height=\"337\" srcset=\"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/Turkey-Economi-3-200x120.png 200w, https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/Turkey-Economi-3-300x180.png 300w, https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/Turkey-Economi-3-400x240.png 400w, https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/Turkey-Economi-3-600x361.png 600w, https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/Turkey-Economi-3-768x462.png 768w, https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/Turkey-Economi-3-800x481.png 800w, https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/Turkey-Economi-3-1024x616.png 1024w, https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/Turkey-Economi-3-1200x721.png 1200w, https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/Turkey-Economi-3-1536x923.png 1536w, https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/Turkey-Economi-3.png 1840w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 560px) 100vw, 560px\" title=\"\"><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-34303 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/Turkey-Economi-4.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"568\" height=\"342\" srcset=\"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/Turkey-Economi-4-200x120.png 200w, https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/Turkey-Economi-4-300x181.png 300w, https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/Turkey-Economi-4-400x241.png 400w, https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/Turkey-Economi-4-600x361.png 600w, https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/Turkey-Economi-4-768x462.png 768w, https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/Turkey-Economi-4-800x481.png 800w, https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/Turkey-Economi-4-1024x616.png 1024w, https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/Turkey-Economi-4-1200x722.png 1200w, https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/Turkey-Economi-4-1536x924.png 1536w, https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/Turkey-Economi-4.png 1838w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 568px) 100vw, 568px\" title=\"\"><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\u015e\u00fcphesiz bu durumda T\u00fcrk Liras\u0131n\u0131n reel olarak de\u011fer kaybetmesinin \u00f6nemli etkisi var. D\u00fc\u015f\u00fck de\u011ferli TL (rekabet\u00e7i kur), ihracat\u00e7\u0131 firmalara \u00f6nemli bir rekabet avantaj\u0131 sa\u011flarken hem ara mal\u0131 kullan\u0131m\u0131nda hem de i\u00e7 t\u00fcketimde ithal \u00fcr\u00fcnlerin yerli \u00fcretim mal ve hizmetlerle ikame edilmesini te\u015fvik ediyor. D\u0131\u015f ticarete konu olan mallar\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fck oranda sanayi mallar\u0131ndan olu\u015fmas\u0131, bu rekabet\u00e7i avantaj\u0131n sanayiye ve istihdama do\u011frudan yans\u0131mas\u0131 anlam\u0131na geliyor.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Bir di\u011fer de\u011fi\u015fle, TL\u2019deki de\u011fer kayb\u0131 ve buna ba\u011fl\u0131 al\u0131m g\u00fcc\u00fc kayb\u0131 i\u00e7 piyasaya d\u00f6n\u00fck ve\/veya t\u00fcketime dayal\u0131 sekt\u00f6rleri (mesela in\u015faat sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fc) geriletirken, ihracata dayal\u0131 sanayi firmalar\u0131 ve pe\u015finden s\u00fcr\u00fckledi\u011fi di\u011fer sanayi kollar\u0131 i\u00e7in bir doping etkisi olu\u015fturuyor.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Cumhurba\u015fkan\u0131 Erdo\u011fan\u2019\u0131n bir konu\u015fmas\u0131nda bahsetti\u011fi \u201c\u00c7in Modeli\u201d bu anlamda sonu\u00e7 vermi\u015f gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor<a href=\"#_edn8\" name=\"_ednref8\">[viii]<\/a>. Fakat sanayi-ihracat-istihdam \u00fc\u00e7genindeki pozitif trendlere ra\u011fmen T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin i\u00e7inde bulundu\u011fu makroiktisadi dengesizlik atmosferinin s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilir olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131k. TL\u2019nin rekabet\u00e7i tutulmas\u0131 i\u00e7in bu d\u00fczeylerde negatif faize ihtiya\u00e7 var m\u0131yd\u0131?<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">TL\u2019nin de\u011ferinde a\u015famal\u0131 ve kontroll\u00fc bir d\u00fczeltmeyle %80 d\u00fczeyini test eden enflasyon oranlar\u0131 olmadan ayn\u0131 etki yarat\u0131lamaz m\u0131yd\u0131? Bu sorular h\u00e2len tart\u0131\u015fmaya a\u00e7\u0131k. Merkez Bankas\u0131n\u0131n art\u0131k %80\u2019lere varan enflasyona ra\u011fmen politika faizinde indirim yapmaya devam etmesi uygulanan politikada revizyon yap\u0131lmas\u0131 ihtimalinin olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Bu da bizi d\u0131\u015f etkenlere bakmaya zorluyor.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">D\u00fcnyada k\u00fcresel enflasyona ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n faiz art\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Bat\u0131l\u0131 \u00fclkelerin enflasyonu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmek i\u00e7in parasal s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fmaya gitmesi T\u00fcrkiye\u2019yi birka\u00e7 farkl\u0131 kanaldan etkileyecek. Birincisi, Bat\u0131l\u0131 \u00fclkelerde enflasyonun d\u00fc\u015fmesi k\u00fcresel enflasyonun ve dolay\u0131s\u0131yla T\u00fcrkiye\u2019deki enflasyonun belli oranda d\u00fc\u015fmesine sebep olabilir. Bu T\u00fcrkiye i\u00e7in iyi haber.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\u0130kincisi, faizlerin y\u00fckselmesi Bat\u0131l\u0131 \u00fclkelerde ekonomik yava\u015flamaya sebep olurken T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin de ihracat performans\u0131nda ve dolay\u0131s\u0131yla cari dengede olumsuz etki yapabilir. Bu T\u00fcrkiye i\u00e7in k\u00f6t\u00fc haber. \u00dc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fcs\u00fc ve belki en \u00f6nemlisi, ba\u015fta ABD olmak \u00fczere d\u00fcnyan\u0131n \u00f6nde gelen ekonomileri faiz art\u0131r\u0131rken \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc d\u00fcnya \u00fclkelerine da\u011f\u0131lan finansman\u0131 da merkez \u00fclkeleri davet etmi\u015f oluyorlar. Bu da d\u00f6viz kurlar\u0131n\u0131n \u00fczerindeki bask\u0131n\u0131n daha da artmas\u0131 anlam\u0131na geliyor.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Bir di\u011fer \u00f6nemli k\u00fcresel trend de hi\u00e7 \u015f\u00fcphesiz emtia fiyatlar\u0131. Emtia fiyatlar\u0131 merkez banklar\u0131n\u0131n faiz politikalar\u0131yla ilintili fakat etkili olan ba\u015fka fakt\u00f6rler de var. Bunlar\u0131n en \u00f6nemlisi Rusya-Ukrayna sava\u015f\u0131. Sava\u015f dolay\u0131s\u0131yla Bat\u0131l\u0131 \u00fclkeler Rusya\u2019ya ambargo uyguluyorlar. Rusya da d\u00fcnyan\u0131n en \u00f6nemli tah\u0131l \u00fcreticilerinden biri olan Ukrayna\u2019n\u0131n d\u0131\u015f ticarete kat\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 engelliyor.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Sonu\u00e7ta hem enerji hem g\u0131da fiyatlar\u0131nda yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bir bask\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. K\u0131\u015f yakla\u015f\u0131rken enerji a\u00e7l\u0131\u011f\u0131 artan AB \u00fclkelerinin Rusya\u2019yla masaya oturmalar\u0131 ve bir anla\u015fmaya varmalar\u0131 muhtemel g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. E\u011fer bu ger\u00e7ekle\u015firse k\u00fcresel emtia fiyatlar\u0131nda ve dolay\u0131s\u0131yla T\u00fcrkiye\u2019deki enflasyonda bir iyile\u015fme g\u00f6rebiliriz.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Son olarak, ABD\u2019de temmuz ay\u0131 enflasyonu beklenenin aksine ayl\u0131k bazda sabit kald\u0131 ve ABD\u2019de parasal geni\u015flemenin tekrar ne zaman ba\u015flayabilece\u011fine dair spek\u00fclasyonlar\u0131 ba\u015flatt\u0131. Bu \u015f\u00fcphesiz T\u00fcrkiye i\u00e7in iyi haber fakat en az\u0131ndan k\u0131sa vadede bir de\u011fi\u015fim vadetmiyor \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc enflasyon oranlar\u0131nda kal\u0131c\u0131 bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f oldu\u011funa emin olana kadar Fed faizleri bir s\u00fcre daha y\u00fcksek tutacak.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Ayr\u0131ca, ABD\u2019de parasal geni\u015fleme sayesinde dolarda bir miktar de\u011fer kayb\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fclse dahi T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de enflasyon oranlar\u0131nda k\u0131sa vadede anlaml\u0131 bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f olaca\u011f\u0131 \u015f\u00fcpheli. Her durumda fiyat art\u0131\u015flar\u0131ndaki ivmenin azalmas\u0131 zaman alacak. Se\u00e7imlere kadar baz etkisiyle dahi hissedilir bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f m\u00fcmk\u00fcn g\u00f6r\u00fcnm\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Son tahlilde, T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisi i\u00e7in enflasyon ve kur istikrar\u0131 tart\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131 g\u00fcndem olmaya devam edecek gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n politika faizlerini a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck d\u00fczeylerde tutmak konusundaki kararl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 enflasyon ve kur d\u00fczeylerinde iyile\u015fmenin b\u00fcy\u00fck oranda d\u0131\u015f etkenlere ba\u011fl\u0131 olmas\u0131 anlam\u0131na geliyor.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">E\u011fer k\u00fcresel emtia fiyatlar\u0131nda di\u015fe dokunur bir iyile\u015fme ya\u015fan\u0131rsa enflasyon oranlar\u0131nda bir iyile\u015fme g\u00f6r\u00fclebilir. Ayr\u0131ca ticaret hadlerinde bir d\u00fczelme, cari dengede h\u00fck\u00fcmetin ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirmeyi umut etti\u011fi iyile\u015fmeyi m\u00fcmk\u00fcn k\u0131labilir. Her durumda b\u00fcy\u00fcmede ciddi bir kay\u0131p ya\u015fanmadan makroiktisadi dengenin sa\u011flanmas\u0131 T\u00fcrkiye i\u00e7in zor bir imtihan gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n<hr>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Referanslar<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><a href=\"#_ednref1\" name=\"_edn1\">[i]<\/a> T\u00fcrkiye \u0130statistik Kurumu, T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi, Temmuz 2022, <a href=\"https:\/\/data.tuik.gov.tr\/Bulten\/Index?p=Tuketici-Fiyat-Endeksi-Temmuz-2022-45796\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">https:\/\/data.tuik.gov.tr\/Bulten\/Index?p=Tuketici-Fiyat-Endeksi-Temmuz-2022-45796<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><a href=\"#_ednref2\" name=\"_edn2\">[ii]<\/a> T\u00fcrkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankas\u0131, \u00d6demeler Dengesi \u0130statistikleri, Haziran 2022, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tcmb.gov.tr\/wps\/wcm\/connect\/TR\/TCMB+TR\/Main+Menu\/Istatistikler\/Odemeler+Dengesi+ve+Ilgili+Istatistikler\/Odemeler+Dengesi+Istatistikleri\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">https:\/\/www.tcmb.gov.tr\/wps\/wcm\/connect\/TR\/TCMB+TR\/Main+Menu\/Istatistikler\/Odemeler+Dengesi+ve+Ilgili+Istatistikler\/Odemeler+Dengesi+Istatistikleri\/<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><a href=\"#_ednref3\" name=\"_edn3\">[iii]<\/a> BBC T\u00fcrk\u00e7e, \u201cT\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin d\u00f6viz rezervinde son 1 y\u0131l\u0131n en y\u00fcksek art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ya\u015fand\u0131\u201d, 12 A\u011fustos 2022, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bbc.com\/turkce\/articles\/cglzey8lzgvo\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">https:\/\/www.bbc.com\/turkce\/articles\/cglzey8lzgvo<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><a href=\"#_ednref4\" name=\"_edn4\">[iv]<\/a> T\u00fcrkiye \u0130statistik Kurumu, \u0130\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc \u0130statistikleri, Haziran 2022, <a href=\"https:\/\/data.tuik.gov.tr\/Bulten\/Index?p=Isgucu-Istatistikleri-Haziran-2022-45651&amp;dil=1\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">https:\/\/data.tuik.gov.tr\/Bulten\/Index?p=Isgucu-Istatistikleri-Haziran-2022-45651&amp;dil=1<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><a href=\"#_ednref5\" name=\"_edn5\">[v]<\/a> T\u00fcrkiye \u0130statistik Kurumu, Sanayi \u00dcretim Endeksi, Haziran 2022, <a href=\"https:\/\/data.tuik.gov.tr\/Bulten\/Index?p=Sanayi-Uretim-Endeksi-Haziran-2022-45736\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">https:\/\/data.tuik.gov.tr\/Bulten\/Index?p=Sanayi-Uretim-Endeksi-Haziran-2022-45736<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><a href=\"#_ednref6\" name=\"_edn6\">[vi]<\/a> T\u00fcrkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankas\u0131, \u0130malat Sanayi Kapasite Kullan\u0131m Oran\u0131, A\u011fustos 2022, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tcmb.gov.tr\/wps\/wcm\/connect\/TR\/TCMB+TR\/Main+Menu\/Istatistikler\/Reel+Sektor+Istatistikleri\/Imalat+Sanayi+Kapasite+Kullanim+Orani\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">https:\/\/www.tcmb.gov.tr\/wps\/wcm\/connect\/TR\/TCMB+TR\/Main+Menu\/Istatistikler\/Reel+Sektor+Istatistikleri\/Imalat+Sanayi+Kapasite+Kullanim+Orani\/<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><a href=\"#_ednref7\" name=\"_edn7\">[vii]<\/a> T\u00fcrkiye \u0130statistik Kurumu, D\u0131\u015f Ticaret Endeksi, Haziran 2022, <a href=\"https:\/\/data.tuik.gov.tr\/Bulten\/Index?p=Dis-Ticaret-Endeksleri-Haziran-2022-45530\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">https:\/\/data.tuik.gov.tr\/Bulten\/Index?p=Dis-Ticaret-Endeksleri-Haziran-2022-45530<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><a href=\"#_ednref8\" name=\"_edn8\">[viii]<\/a> H\u00fcrriyet, \u201cErdo\u011fan ekonomide yol haritas\u0131n\u0131 anlatt\u0131: \u00c7in de b\u00f6yle b\u00fcy\u00fcd\u00fc\u201d, 3 Aral\u0131k 2021, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.hurriyet.com.tr\/gundem\/erdogan-ekonomide-yol-haritasini-anlatti-cin-de-boyle-buyudu-41952854\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">https:\/\/www.hurriyet.com.tr\/gundem\/erdogan-ekonomide-yol-haritasini-anlatti-cin-de-boyle-buyudu-41952854<\/a>.<\/p>\n<\/div><div class=\"fusion-clearfix\"><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"","protected":false},"author":264,"featured_media":34316,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","ngg_post_thumbnail":0},"categories":[364],"tags":[17618,18801,18802,18803],"asf_pub_issue":[10314],"asf_pub_region":[17601],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/34302"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/264"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=34302"}],"version-history":[{"count":9,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/34302\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":34403,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/34302\/revisions\/34403"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/34316"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=34302"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=34302"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=34302"},{"taxonomy":"asf_pub_issue","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/asf_pub_issue?post=34302"},{"taxonomy":"asf_pub_region","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/asf_pub_region?post=34302"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}