![\"\"](\"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/06\/Hamidreza-150x150.jpg\" "\\"\\"")
Hamidreza Azizi<\/a> <\/i> 19 Ekim 2022<\/span><\/h6><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div>PDF \u0130ndir<\/span><\/a><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div>Uzman G\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fc<\/a> \/ \/ B\u00f6lgesel Politika<\/a><\/h6><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div>\u0130ran’daki Halk Protestolar\u0131n\u0131n Uluslararas\u0131 \u0130li\u015fkileri<\/span><\/h2>\n(Bu metin \u0130ngilizce orijinal versiyonundan terc\u00fcme edilmi\u015ftir.)<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\u00d6zet: <\/strong>\u0130ran\u2019da s\u00fcregelen halk protestolar\u0131 2009\u2019dan bu yana \u0130slam Cumhuriyeti\u2019nin me\u015fruiyetine y\u00f6nelik en b\u00fcy\u00fck meydan okuma. Protestocular\u0131n talepleri d\u0131\u015f politika konular\u0131n\u0131 do\u011frudan kapsamasa da \u0130ran\u2019daki i\u00e7 geli\u015fmelerin uluslararas\u0131 yans\u0131malar\u0131 belirginle\u015fmeye ba\u015flad\u0131 bile. Protestolar \u0130slam Cumhuriyeti ile Bat\u0131 aras\u0131ndaki ili\u015fkilerin normalle\u015fme ihtimalini azalt\u0131rken KOEP\u2019in gelece\u011fi konusundaki \u015f\u00fcpheleri de art\u0131rd\u0131. Ayn\u0131 zamanda \u0130ranl\u0131 liderler \u201cDo\u011fu\u2019ya bakma\u201d d\u0131\u015f politika stratejilerine ba\u011fl\u0131 kalmay\u0131 giderek daha hayati g\u00f6rmeye ba\u015flad\u0131. Bunlar\u0131n yan\u0131nda \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n krizi kom\u015fu \u00fclkelere s\u00fcr\u00fckleme y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki apa\u00e7\u0131k niyeti de \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n b\u00f6lgesel politikas\u0131 ve kom\u015fular\u0131yla ili\u015fkileri i\u00e7in ciddi sonu\u00e7lar do\u011furabilir.<\/p>\nGiri\u015f<\/strong><\/span><\/h2>\n\u0130ddialara g\u00f6re \u0130slami giyinme kurallar\u0131na riayet etmedi\u011fi i\u00e7in \u0130ran<\/a>\u2019\u0131n ahlak polisi taraf\u0131ndan \u015fiddet kullan\u0131larak tutuklanan 22 ya\u015f\u0131ndaki \u0130ranl\u0131 kad\u0131n Mahsa Emini\u2019nin \u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fc \u00fclke genelinde halk\u0131n \u00f6fkesine yol a\u00e7t\u0131. Bir yandan \u0130ran h\u00fck\u00fcmetinin vaka ile ilgili sorumluluk almamas\u0131 \u00f6te yandan ise halk\u0131n k\u0131rk y\u0131ld\u0131r s\u00fcren siyasi, ekonomik ve toplumsal politikalar\u0131n ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131zl\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan duydu\u011fu yayg\u0131n memnuniyetsizlik, \u00f6fkenin h\u0131zl\u0131 bir \u015fekilde \u00fclke geneli bir protesto hareketine d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fmesine neden oldu.<\/p>\nBir haftadan k\u0131sa bir s\u00fcre i\u00e7inde \u0130ran genelinde 80 \u015fehir[1]<\/a> insanlar\u0131n sadece kad\u0131nlara y\u00f6nelik zorunlu tesett\u00fcr politikas\u0131na veya hatta h\u00fck\u00fcmetin sosyal ve k\u00fclt\u00fcrel politikalar\u0131na de\u011fil ayn\u0131 zamanda bizzat siyasal sistem ve Dini Lider Ayetullah Seyyid Ali Hamaney\u2019e kar\u015f\u0131 sloganlar att\u0131\u011f\u0131 halk protestolar\u0131na tan\u0131k oldu. Ba\u015fka bir deyi\u015fle tesett\u00fcr zorunlulu\u011funu protesto etmek halk\u0131n \u0130slam Cumhuriyeti\u2019nden duydu\u011fu birikmi\u015f kini soka\u011fa getirmesinin fitili g\u00f6revini g\u00f6rd\u00fc.<\/p>\nH\u00fck\u00fcmetin protestolar\u0131 \u015fiddetle bast\u0131rmas\u0131 \u015fimdiye kadar d\u00fczinelerce \u00f6l\u00fcme ve y\u00fczlerce yaralanmaya sebep oldu.[2]<\/a> Ancak protestolar\u0131n geni\u015f co\u011frafi kapsam\u0131, kad\u0131nlardan \u00f6\u011frencilere ve \u00e7e\u015fitli etnik gruplara uzanan \u00e7e\u015fitlili\u011fi h\u00fck\u00fcmetin durumu tamamen kontrol alt\u0131na almas\u0131n\u0131 son derece g\u00fc\u00e7le\u015ftirdi. \u0130ran\u2019daki halk protestolar\u0131nda her zaman ya\u015fand\u0131\u011f\u0131 gibi h\u00fck\u00fcmet yetkilileri yabanc\u0131 mihraklar\u0131 \u00fclkede huzursuzluk \u00e7\u0131karmakla su\u00e7lad\u0131. Hamaney\u2019in s\u00fcregelen geli\u015fmelere tepkisi bu yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131 net bir \u015fekilde yans\u0131tt\u0131. 3 Ekim\u2019de yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir konu\u015fmada \u0130ran dini lideri, protestolar\u0131n \u201cABD, \u0130srail ve takip\u00e7ileri\u201d taraf\u0131ndan tezgahland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 iddia etti.[3]<\/a><\/p>\nFakat a\u015fina oldu\u011fumuz bu komplo anlat\u0131s\u0131 \u0130ran\u2019daki protestolar\u0131n tek uluslararas\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fc de\u011fil. Bir yandan d\u0131\u015f politika konular\u0131n\u0131n protestolara yol a\u00e7\u0131p a\u00e7mad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 veya en az\u0131ndan varsa etkisinin boyutunu irdelemek hayati \u00f6nem ta\u015f\u0131yor. \u00d6te yandan protestolar\u0131n \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n Bat\u0131 ile ili\u015fkilerini, \u201cDo\u011fu\u2019ya bakma\u201d d\u0131\u015f politika stratejisini ve kom\u015fular\u0131 ve daha geni\u015f anlamda Ortado\u011fu ile olan m\u00fcnasebetlerini etkilemesi bekleniyor.<\/p>\n
D\u0131\u015f politikan\u0131n s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 rol\u00fc<\/strong><\/span><\/h2>\nProtestolar s\u0131ras\u0131nda at\u0131lan pop\u00fcler sloganlar\u0131 insanlar\u0131n taleplerini anlamak i\u00e7in bir g\u00f6sterge olarak al\u0131rsak son protestolar ge\u00e7mi\u015fteki di\u011fer kitlesel protestolardan ciddi anlamda farkl\u0131. Asl\u0131nda 1979 \u0130slam devriminden sonra ve \u00f6zellikle de ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz birka\u00e7 y\u0131lda \u0130ran sokaklar\u0131 irili ufakl\u0131 protestolara tan\u0131k oldu. Yine de 2009 Ye\u015fil Hareketi ve Kas\u0131m 2019 halk protestolar\u0131n\u0131 son k\u0131rk y\u0131l\u0131n en ciddi protesto dalgalar\u0131 olarak de\u011ferlendirebiliriz. \u0130ki olayda da h\u00fck\u00fcmetin d\u0131\u015f politikas\u0131ndan duyulan memnuniyetsizlik sloganlara net bir \u015fekilde yans\u0131m\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Ye\u015fil Hareket \u00e7o\u011fu \u0130ranl\u0131n\u0131n hileli oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc 2009 cumhurba\u015fkanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 se\u00e7imlerine bir tepki olarak ba\u015flam\u0131\u015ft\u0131 ama h\u00fck\u00fcmetin i\u00e7 ve d\u0131\u015f politikas\u0131ndan duyulan derin b\u0131kk\u0131nl\u0131\u011f\u0131 da g\u00f6steriyordu.<\/p>\n
\u201cNe Gazze\u2019ye ne L\u00fcbnan\u2019a, can\u0131m feda \u0130ran\u2019a!\u201d d\u00f6nemin \u00fcnl\u00fc sloganlar\u0131ndan biriydi[4]<\/a> ve hem hareketin milliyet\u00e7i y\u00f6n\u00fcne hem de \u00fclkenin milli menfaatlerine odaklanmak yerine d\u00fcnyadaki \u0130slamc\u0131 hareketlere deste\u011fi \u00f6nceleyen devlet ideolojisine itiraza i\u015faret ediyordu. Ye\u015fil hareket ayn\u0131 zamanda kendini demokrat ve liberal bir hareket olarak tan\u0131ml\u0131yor ve bu y\u00fczden ba\u015fta Birle\u015fik Devletler olmak \u00fczere d\u00fcnyadaki demokratik devletlerden destek bekliyordu. \u201c[ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131] Obama ya bizdensin ya onlardan\u201d slogan\u0131 bu beklentiye at\u0131f yap\u0131yordu.<\/p>\nKas\u0131m 2019 protestolar\u0131 birincil olarak ekonomik sorunlar nedeniyle ortaya \u00e7\u0131km\u0131\u015ft\u0131 ve toplumun d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck gelirli kesimleri sokaktaki protestocular\u0131n \u00e7o\u011funlu\u011funu olu\u015fturuyordu.[5]<\/a> Bir yandan yolsuzluk ve ekonominin k\u00f6t\u00fc y\u00f6netilmesi, \u00f6te yandan ABD\u2019nin fel\u00e7 edici yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 ya\u015fam ko\u015fullar\u0131n\u0131 bir\u00e7ok \u0130ranl\u0131 i\u00e7in tahamm\u00fcl edilemez hale getirmi\u015fti. Ayn\u0131 zamanda bir\u00e7ok insan \u0130ran h\u00fck\u00fcmetinin s\u0131n\u0131r \u00f6tesindeki askeri m\u00fcdahalelerinin \u00fclke i\u00e7indeki ekonomik sorunlar\u0131 daha da k\u00f6t\u00fcle\u015ftirdi\u011fine ve halk\u0131n ya\u015fam\u0131n\u0131 iyile\u015ftirmek i\u00e7in kullan\u0131lmas\u0131 gereken paralar\u0131n ba\u015fka yerlerde harcand\u0131\u011f\u0131na inan\u0131yordu. Bu kanaat bir\u00e7ok protestoda at\u0131lan \u201cSuriye\u2019yi b\u0131rak, bize bak\u201d slogan\u0131na yans\u0131m\u0131\u015ft\u0131.<\/p>\nAncak bu kez protestolarda d\u0131\u015f politikayla ili\u015fkili sloganlar neredeyse hi\u00e7 yok.<\/strong><\/span><\/h2>\nBunun yerine iki tip talep ba\u015fat \u00f6nem arz ediyor: birincisi, kad\u0131n haklar\u0131 ve sosyal \u00f6zg\u00fcrl\u00fckler gibi temel insan haklar\u0131. Protestolar\u0131n ana slogan\u0131 olan \u201cKad\u0131n, hayat, \u00f6zg\u00fcrl\u00fck\u201d bu talepleri sembolize ediyor. \u0130kincisi, \u0130slam Cumhuriyeti\u2019nin siyasal sisteminin b\u00fct\u00fcn\u00fcne muhalefet mollalara ve dini lidere kar\u015f\u0131 at\u0131lan her t\u00fcr slogana yans\u0131d\u0131. Ba\u015fka bir deyi\u015fle son 13 y\u0131l s\u00fcresince \u0130ran\u2019daki protesto hareketinin oda\u011f\u0131n\u0131n kademeli olarak siyasal reform taleplerinden ekonomik sorunlara, ard\u0131ndan da temel sosyal \u00f6zg\u00fcrl\u00fcklere ve insan haklar\u0131na kayd\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00f6ylenebilir.<\/p>\n
Ayn\u0131 zamanda protestocular belirli politika ve prosed\u00fcrlerden ziyade artan bi\u00e7imde siyasal sistemi bir b\u00fct\u00fcn olarak hedef al\u0131yor. \u0130slam Cumhuriyeti\u2019nin giderek daha fazla otoriterli\u011fe y\u00f6nelmesi bir\u00e7ok insan\u0131 herhangi bir politika de\u011fi\u015fiminin ancak siyasal sistemde k\u00f6kl\u00fc bir de\u011fi\u015fiklikle m\u00fcmk\u00fcn olabilece\u011fine inanmaya sevk etti. Ayr\u0131ca 2009\u2019dan farkl\u0131 olarak sokaktaki insanlar d\u0131\u015far\u0131dan destek istemiyor. Bu durum her t\u00fcr de\u011fi\u015fimin \u00fclke i\u00e7inden ba\u015flat\u0131lmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fi ve d\u0131\u015f deste\u011fin de\u011fi\u015fimin esas fakt\u00f6r olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki kolektif fark\u0131ndal\u0131\u011f\u0131n bir i\u015fareti olarak g\u00f6r\u00fclebilir. Bu y\u00fczden Hamaney Bat\u0131\u2019y\u0131 protestolar\u0131 destekleyerek \u0130ran\u2019\u0131 kar\u0131\u015f\u0131kl\u0131\u011fa s\u00fcr\u00fcklemekle su\u00e7larken protestocular asl\u0131nda Bat\u0131\u2019y\u0131 hesaplar\u0131na dahil etmedi.<\/p>\n
\u0130ran ile Bat\u0131: Duvardaki bir ba\u015fka tu\u011fla<\/strong><\/span><\/h2>\n\u0130ran\u2019daki son protestolar Tahran\u2019\u0131n Washington ve Avrupa ba\u015fkentleriyle ili\u015fkilerinin en hassas a\u015famalar\u0131ndan birine girdi\u011fi bir zamana denk geldi. \u0130ran ile k\u00fcresel g\u00fc\u00e7ler aras\u0131ndaki bir y\u0131ldan fazlad\u0131r s\u00fcren 2015 \u0130ran n\u00fckleer anla\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131 (resmi ad\u0131yla Kapsaml\u0131 Ortak Eylem Plan\u0131 yahut KOEP) diriltme m\u00fczakerelerinden sonra \u0130ran ile ABD aras\u0131nda hala ciddi ihtilaflar var. Nitekim protestolar ba\u015flamadan \u00e7ok \u00f6nce o ihtilaflar m\u00fczakereleri durma noktas\u0131na getirmi\u015fti.[6]<\/a> \u00dcstelik \u0130ran n\u00fckleer silah \u00fcretme kapasitesine hi\u00e7 olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 kadar yak\u0131n ve n\u00fckleer program\u0131ndaki ilerlemeyi Bat\u0131\u2019y\u0131 daha fazla tavize zorlamak i\u00e7in bir koz olarak kullanmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131yor.<\/p>\nBu \u015fartlar alt\u0131nda yayg\u0131n halk protestolar\u0131 n\u00fckleer m\u00fczakerelerin Bat\u0131l\u0131 taraflar\u0131n\u0131 zor duruma soktu. Bir yandan protestolar\u0131n otoriterlik kar\u015f\u0131t\u0131 ve liberal niteli\u011fi \u00f6te yandan ise k\u00fcresel kamuoyunun \u0130ran\u2019daki protestoculara, \u00f6zellikle de kad\u0131nlara olan benzeri g\u00f6r\u00fclmemi\u015f sempatisi Bat\u0131l\u0131 h\u00fck\u00fcmetlerin \u0130ran\u2019da ya\u015fananlar\u0131 g\u00f6rmezden gelmesini neredeyse imk\u00e2ns\u0131z hale getirdi. Bu nedenle Avrupa devletleri, Kanada ve ABD \u0130ran\u2019daki protestocular\u0131n \u015fiddetle bast\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 k\u0131nay\u0131p \u0130ran h\u00fck\u00fcmetine \u015fiddeti durdurma \u00e7a\u011fr\u0131s\u0131nda bulundu. Washington ve Ottawa, protestolar\u0131 bast\u0131rmada yer alan \u0130ranl\u0131 yetkililere yapt\u0131r\u0131m uygularken[7]<\/a> AB benzer ad\u0131mlar atmay\u0131 planl\u0131yor.<\/p>\nBu arada Bat\u0131\u2019n\u0131n protestolar\u0131n \u015fiddetle bast\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k olarak \u0130slam Cumhuriyeti ile m\u00fczakereleri durdurmaya haz\u0131r oldu\u011funa dair hi\u00e7bir emare yok. ABD h\u00fck\u00fcmeti hala diplomasiyi \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n n\u00fckleer program\u0131n\u0131 ele alman\u0131n en iyi yolu olarak g\u00f6rd\u00fcklerini a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131.[8]<\/a> Avrupa Parlamentosu da protestolar nedeniyle \u0130ran\u2019la n\u00fckleer g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeleri ask\u0131ya alma fikrini reddetti.[9]<\/a> ABD ve Avrupa, \u0130ran\u2019la diplomasiyi ask\u0131ya alman\u0131n \u0130ranl\u0131 liderlere n\u00fckleer programlar\u0131n\u0131 silahla\u015ft\u0131rma f\u0131rsat ve cesaretini verebilece\u011finden endi\u015fe ediyor.<\/p>\nBuradaki arg\u00fcmanlar\u0131, n\u00fckleer silahlar\u0131 olan otoriter bir devletin b\u00f6lgesel ve uluslararas\u0131 bar\u0131\u015f ve g\u00fcvenli\u011fe \u00e7ok daha b\u00fcy\u00fck tehdit olu\u015fturabilece\u011fi. Bu kayg\u0131lar\u0131n fark\u0131nda olan \u0130ranl\u0131 yetkililer de Bat\u0131\u2019dan herhangi bir kararl\u0131 ad\u0131m at\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6nlemek i\u00e7in Avrupa\u2019ya \u015fantaj yapmaya ba\u015flam\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. \u00d6rne\u011fin \u0130ran D\u0131\u015fi\u015fleri Bakan\u0131 H\u00fcseyin Emir-Abdullahiyan Avrupa\u2019n\u0131n herhangi bir \u201cfevri ve d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcncesizce\u201d hareketine \u201c\u0130ran\u2019\u0131n etkili ve m\u00fctekabil bir hareketle\u201d kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k vermesiyle sonu\u00e7lanaca\u011f\u0131 konusunda Avrupa\u2019y\u0131 uyard\u0131.[10]<\/a> \u00d6yle g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor ki Bakan bu uyar\u0131yla \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n n\u00fckleer program\u0131n\u0131 daha da geli\u015ftirme ihtimaline g\u00f6nderme yap\u0131yor.<\/p>\nBu itibarla \u0130ran h\u00fck\u00fcmeti uluslararas\u0131 bask\u0131y\u0131 azaltmak i\u00e7in KOEP\u2019i rehin alm\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Bu durumda KOEP\u2019nin kaderi hakk\u0131nda iki senaryo akla geliyor. Birinci senaryoda \u0130ran anla\u015fmay\u0131 canland\u0131rma iste\u011fini dile getirmeyi s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcrken e\u015f zamanl\u0131 olarak Bat\u0131l\u0131 taraflara \u015fantaj yaparak n\u00fckleer konusunu Bat\u0131\u2019n\u0131n ilgi oda\u011f\u0131nda tutmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015facak. \u0130ranl\u0131 liderler, n\u00fckleer sorunu \u015fimdi \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcl\u00fcrse Bat\u0131\u2019n\u0131n \u0130slam Cumhuriyeti\u2019ne insan haklar\u0131 sorunlar\u0131 konusunda daha rahat bask\u0131 yapabilece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyor olabilir. H\u00fck\u00fcmet bask\u0131 veya ba\u015fka ara\u00e7larla k\u0131sa vadede durumu nispeten kontrol alt\u0131nda tutmay\u0131 ba\u015far\u0131rsa bu en muhtemel senaryo olur. \u0130kinci senaryoda ise i\u00e7 kar\u0131\u015f\u0131kl\u0131k kontrolden \u00e7\u0131karsa \u0130ran m\u00fczakerelerde baz\u0131 esneklikler g\u00f6sterebilir.<\/p>\n
Bu durumdaki mant\u0131\u011fa g\u00f6re h\u00fck\u00fcmet anla\u015fmay\u0131 yeniden hayata ge\u00e7irip yapt\u0131r\u0131mlardan kurtularak kontrol\u00fc yeniden sa\u011flamak i\u00e7in yeni mali kaynaklara eri\u015fim kazan\u0131rken protesto etmelerinin esas nedeni ekonomik zorluklar olan toplumun baz\u0131 kesimlerinin sadakatini tekrar sat\u0131n alabilecek. Bu durumda rejimin bekas\u0131na y\u00f6nelik kayg\u0131lar, en az\u0131ndan h\u00fck\u00fcmet i\u00e7 cephede g\u00fcvende hissedene kadar, Bat\u0131\u2019dan gelmesi muhtemel yeni taleplerle ilgili de\u011ferlendirmelere a\u011f\u0131r basabilir. Her h\u00e2l\u00fck\u00e2rda KOEP olsun veya olmas\u0131n son protestolar, \u0130slam Cumhuriyeti ile Bat\u0131 aras\u0131ndaki u\u00e7urumu o kadar geni\u015fletti ki iki taraf aras\u0131ndaki ili\u015fkilerin \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclebilir gelecekte normalle\u015fmesi beklenemez h\u00e2le geldi.<\/p>\n
\u0130ran ile Do\u011fulu g\u00fc\u00e7ler: Otoriter empatisi<\/strong><\/span><\/h2>\nBat\u0131 ile ili\u015fkileri y\u00f6netmede ya\u015fanan yeni zorluklar\u0131n \u0130slam Cumhuriyeti\u2019ni \u201cDo\u011fuya bakma\u201d politikas\u0131n\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmeye daha kararl\u0131 hale getirmesi bekleniyor. Ger\u00e7ekte Tahran\u2019\u0131n \u201cDo\u011fu\u2019ya\u201d meyli protestolardan \u00f6ncesine dayan\u0131yor ve \u0130ran d\u0131\u015f politikas\u0131ndaki kademeli bir stratejik kaymaya i\u015faret ediyor. Protestocular Mahsa Emini\u2019nin \u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcnden sonra g\u00f6steri yaparken \u0130ran Cumhurba\u015fkan\u0131 \u0130brahim Reisi, \u015eanghay \u0130\u015fbirli\u011fi \u00d6rg\u00fct\u00fc (\u015e\u0130\u00d6) y\u0131ll\u0131k zirvesine kat\u0131lmak \u00fczere \u00d6zbekistan\u2019dayd\u0131. Zirvede \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n \u015e\u0130\u00d6 i\u00e7indeki stat\u00fcs\u00fc 17 y\u0131l sonra g\u00f6zlemci devletten tam \u00fcyeye y\u00fckseltildi. Bu geli\u015fme \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n d\u0131\u015f politikas\u0131nda artan Do\u011fu\u2019ya y\u00f6neli\u015fin en belirgin sembol\u00fc olarak de\u011ferlendirilebilir.[11]<\/a><\/p>\n\u0130ranl\u0131 liderlerin bak\u0131\u015f a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131na g\u00f6re uluslararas\u0131 sistem giderek ABD merkezli tek kutuplu yap\u0131dan Bat\u0131l\u0131 olmayan g\u00fc\u00e7lerin, \u00f6zellikle de \u00c7in ve Rusya\u2019n\u0131n daha belirleyici bir rol oynad\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ok kutuplulu\u011fa h\u0131zla evriliyor. Bu d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm \u0130ran gibi revizyonist devletlere, Bat\u0131 ile olan s\u00fcrekli kar\u015f\u0131la\u015fmalar\u0131ndan kaynaklanan sistemsel bask\u0131lardan kendilerini kurtar\u0131p y\u00fckselen g\u00fc\u00e7ler aras\u0131ndan daha g\u00fcvenilir ortaklar bulma imk\u00e2n\u0131 sunuyor. Nitekim bu durum \u0130ran gibi b\u00f6lgesel g\u00fc\u00e7lere, y\u00fckselen \u00e7ok kutuplu sistemdeki rollerini iyile\u015ftirme f\u0131rsat\u0131 sunan bir ge\u00e7i\u015f d\u00fczensizli\u011fine yol a\u00e7t\u0131. Bu perspektiften Rusya\u2019n\u0131n Ukrayna\u2019daki sava\u015f\u0131 ve ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 uluslararas\u0131 tepkiler yeni bir d\u00fczenin do\u011fu\u015funun en a\u015fik\u00e2r i\u015faretleridir.<\/p>\n
\u0130ranl\u0131 liderler, ABD\u2019nin Ortado\u011fu ve daha geni\u015f anlamda K\u00fcresel G\u00fcney\u2019deki geleneksel m\u00fcttefiklerini Moskova\u2019y\u0131 yaln\u0131zla\u015ft\u0131rma kampanyas\u0131na katamamas\u0131n\u0131[12]<\/a> ilgiyle izliyor ve Bat\u0131\u2019n\u0131n Tahran\u2019\u0131 yaln\u0131zla\u015ft\u0131rma giri\u015fimlerinin de benzer \u015fekilde ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131z olaca\u011f\u0131 sonucunu \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor. Fakat bu nihai ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131zl\u0131\u011f\u0131n elzem bir \u00f6nko\u015fulu \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n Rusya ve \u00c7in ile azami koordinasyon i\u00e7inde olmas\u0131 olacakt\u0131r. Bu durum \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n Rusya\u2019n\u0131n Ukrayna\u2019ya kar\u015f\u0131 ba\u015flatt\u0131\u011f\u0131 sald\u0131r\u0131 sava\u015f\u0131na verdi\u011fi deste\u011fi a\u00e7\u0131klayabilir.<\/p>\nAncak bu jeopolitik hesaplar\u0131n \u00f6tesinde i\u00e7 politika m\u00fclahazalar\u0131 da \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n Do\u011fu\u2019ya bakma stratejisinin \u00f6nemli bir itkisi olageldi. Nitekim \u0130slam Cumhuriyeti\u2019nin y\u00f6netiminin artan otoriterli\u011fi ile \u00c7in ve Rusya\u2019yla ba\u011flar\u0131n\u0131 geli\u015ftirme iste\u011fi aras\u0131nda do\u011frudan bir ba\u011flant\u0131 var. \u0130ran\u2019daki insan haklar\u0131n\u0131n durumunu ve siyasal ve sosyal \u00f6zg\u00fcrl\u00fcklerin olmay\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 her zaman ele\u015ftiren Avrupa\u2019n\u0131n aksine kendileri de otoriter devletler olan Rusya ve \u00c7in, \u0130slam Cumhuriyeti i\u00e7in daha rahat ortaklard\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Son y\u0131llarda \u0130ran h\u00fck\u00fcmeti \u00c7in teknolojilerini, \u0130nternet ve haberle\u015fme a\u011flar\u0131 \u00fczerinde daha s\u0131k\u0131 kontrol kurarak vatanda\u015flar\u0131n\u0131 kontrol alt\u0131nda tutmak i\u00e7in giderek daha \u00e7ok kulland\u0131. Ge\u00e7en y\u0131l \u0130ran Rusya ile de bili\u015fim g\u00fcvenli\u011fi alan\u0131nda bir i\u015f birli\u011fi anla\u015fmas\u0131 imzalad\u0131.[13]<\/a> Bu y\u00fczden \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n Rusya ve \u00c7in\u2019in uluslararas\u0131 sistemde y\u00fckselen rol\u00fcn\u00fc alg\u0131lay\u0131\u015f\u0131, Bat\u0131 ile ili\u015fkilerin umut vaat etmeyen durumu ayr\u0131ca Tahran, Moskova ve Pekin aras\u0131ndaki otoriter empatisi protestolar\u0131n ard\u0131ndan \u0130slam Cumhuriyeti\u2019ni Do\u011fu\u2019ya daha da itecek fakt\u00f6rler aras\u0131nda yer al\u0131yor.<\/p>\nBurada, mevcut ko\u015fullar alt\u0131nda Pekin\u2019in deste\u011finin \u0130slam Cumhuriyeti i\u00e7in daha hayati \u00f6nemde olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtmek gerekir \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc Moskova temelde Bat\u0131\u2019n\u0131n yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131ndan ve Rus halk\u0131n\u0131n Kremlin\u2019in Ukrayna\u2019daki sava\u015f i\u00e7in ortaya koydu\u011fu son \u201ck\u0131smi seferberlik\u201d planlar\u0131ndan duydu\u011fu memnuniyetsizlik nedeniyle kendi artan i\u00e7 sorunlar\u0131yla cebelle\u015fiyor. Yine de i\u00e7 kar\u0131\u015f\u0131kl\u0131klar geri d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fc olmayan bir noktaya ula\u015f\u0131rsa \u00c7in\u2019in \u0130slam Cumhuriyeti\u2019nin ayakta kalmas\u0131na nas\u0131l yard\u0131m edebilece\u011fini hayal etmek zor.<\/p>\n
Pekin en fazla \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n petrol\u00fcn\u00fc almaya devam edebilir veya bir ihtimal, Tahran\u2019a bor\u00e7 veya di\u011fer ekonomik yard\u0131m t\u00fcrleriyle destek sunabilir. Ancak daha \u00f6nce de\u011finildi\u011fi gibi sokaktaki insanlar\u0131n talepleri ekonomik ko\u015fullar\u0131n iyile\u015ftirilmesini \u00e7ok a\u015f\u0131yor. Bu nedenle ister KOEP\u2019in canland\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 isterse \u00c7in yard\u0131m\u0131ndan kaynaklans\u0131n hi\u00e7bir finansal m\u00fckafat \u0130ran h\u00fck\u00fcmetinin halk\u0131n huzursuzlu\u011funun k\u00f6kleriyle ba\u015f etmesine yard\u0131m edemez.<\/p>\n
\u0130ran ile Ortado\u011fu: Karma\u015fa ekseni<\/strong><\/span><\/h2>\n\u0130ran\u2019\u0131n b\u00f6lgesel politikas\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan son protestolar en az \u00fc\u00e7 y\u00f6nden \u00f6nem arz ediyor. Birincisi, \u0130ran h\u00fck\u00fcmetinin kamuoyunu i\u00e7 sorunlar\u0131n temel nedenlerinden ba\u015fka y\u00f6ne \u00e7ekmek i\u00e7in krizi d\u0131\u015fsalla\u015ft\u0131rma giri\u015fimi. \u0130kincisi, b\u00f6lge devletlerinin protestolara tepkisi. Ve sonuncu ama bir o kadar \u00f6nemlisi, protestolar\u0131n \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n b\u00f6lge genelindeki m\u00fcttefik a\u011f\u0131 yahut \u201cdireni\u015f ekseni\u201d \u00fczerindeki muhtemel etkileri.<\/p>\n
Mahsa Emini\u2019nin Sak\u0131z kentinden bir K\u00fcrt olmas\u0131, protestolar\u0131n ilk g\u00fcnlerinde baz\u0131 g\u00f6zlemcileri bunun \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n hassas etnik fay hatlar\u0131n\u0131 etkileyebilece\u011fi ve sonucunda K\u00fcrt n\u00fcfuslu b\u00f6lgelerde ayr\u0131l\u0131k\u00e7\u0131 hisleri artt\u0131rabilece\u011fi uyar\u0131s\u0131nda bulunmaya sevk etmi\u015fti. Ancak ger\u00e7ekte ya\u015fanan, etnisite unsurunun k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck bir rol oynad\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00fclke geneli bir tepki oldu. Yine de protestolar\u0131n patlak vermesinden k\u0131sa bir s\u00fcre sonra \u0130slam Devrimi Muhaf\u0131zlar\u0131 Ordusu (\u0130DMO) \u201cayr\u0131l\u0131k\u00e7\u0131 ve ter\u00f6rist gruplar\u0131n artan faaliyetleri\u201d olarak tan\u0131mlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 duruma kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k olarak Irak K\u00fcrdistan\u0131\u2019nda bulunan \u0130ranl\u0131 K\u00fcrt muhalif gruplar\u0131 hedef almaya ba\u015flad\u0131.[14]<\/a> \u00dcstelik bunlar ayr\u0131l\u0131k\u00e7\u0131 K\u00fcrt milislerin protestolarda aktif rol ald\u0131\u011f\u0131na ili\u015fkin hi\u00e7bir g\u00fcvenilir kan\u0131t olmamas\u0131na ra\u011fmen yap\u0131ld\u0131.<\/p>\nBu nedenle \u00f6yle g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor ki \u0130slam Cumhuriyeti, K\u00fcrt gruplar\u0131 k\u0131\u015fk\u0131rt\u0131p onlar\u0131 \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmaya s\u00fcr\u00fckleyerek ayr\u0131l\u0131k\u00e7\u0131l\u0131k tehdidini \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131karmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131yor. \u0130ranl\u0131 yetkililer b\u00f6ylelikle i\u00e7 atmosferi g\u00fcvenlikle\u015ftirip insanlar\u0131 protestolara kat\u0131lmaktan vazge\u00e7irmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131yor g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Belu\u00e7 etnik az\u0131nl\u0131\u011f\u0131n ya\u015fad\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00fcney \u0130ran\u2019daki Sistan ve Belucistan eyaletleri de h\u00fck\u00fcmetin benzer bir yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131na tan\u0131k oldu. Eyaletin ba\u015fkenti Zahidan\u2019da ya\u015fanan 30 Eyl\u00fcl protestolar\u0131 s\u0131ras\u0131nda en az 80 ki\u015fi \u00f6ld\u00fcr\u00fcld\u00fc.[15]<\/a> Resmi medya ve yetkililer bu kentteki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131 \u201cter\u00f6rist ve ayr\u0131l\u0131k\u00e7\u0131\u201d unsurlara atfediyor.<\/p>\nB\u00f6lge devletlerinin tepkilerine gelince, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n Arap kom\u015fular\u0131n\u0131n neredeyse hepsi protestolar konusunda bir duru\u015f sergilemekten ka\u00e7\u0131nd\u0131. \u0130ran h\u00fck\u00fcmetinin Suudi fonlu Fars\u00e7a medya organlar\u0131n\u0131 protestolar\u0131 alevlendirmekle su\u00e7lamas\u0131na ra\u011fmen \u015fimdiye kadar Riyad konu hakk\u0131nda sessiz kald\u0131. Ayn\u0131 durum di\u011fer K\u00f6rfez \u0130\u015fbirli\u011fi Konseyi (K\u0130K) \u00fcyeleri ve genel anlamda Arap devletleri i\u00e7in de ge\u00e7erli.<\/p>\n
\u015eimdiye kadar bunun tek istisnas\u0131 protestolar\u0131 \u201ci\u00e7 mesele\u201d olarak tan\u0131mlayan ama Doha\u2019n\u0131n protestolar\u0131n \u015fiddet yoluyla bast\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 oldu\u011funu da vurgulayan Katar D\u0131\u015fi\u015fleri Bakan\u0131 Muhammed bin Abdurrahman el-Sani oldu.[16]<\/a> K\u00f6rfez monar\u015filerinin temkinli duru\u015funun arkas\u0131ndaki esas neden Arap Bahar\u0131\u2019na tepkilerinde de g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc gibi her t\u00fcr taban hareketine ve pop\u00fclist rejim de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fine kategorik olarak kar\u015f\u0131 olmalar\u0131 olabilir. Nitekim \u0130ran h\u00fck\u00fcmetinin devrimle y\u0131k\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131n kendi \u00fclkelerinde de devlet istikrar\u0131n\u0131 tehdit edecek benzer hareketlere ilham kayna\u011f\u0131 olmas\u0131ndan korkuyor da olabilirler. Ancak protestolar\u0131 \u0130slam Cumhuriyeti\u2019ne y\u00f6nelik varolu\u015fsal bir tehdit olarak de\u011ferlendirmiyor ve onlar\u0131 destekleyerek Tahran\u2019\u0131 tahrik etmek istemiyor olmalar\u0131 daha muhtemel.<\/p>\nSon olarak protestolar\u0131n b\u00f6lgesel \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc y\u00f6n\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan \u0130ran\u2019da ya\u015fananlar \u201cdireni\u015f ekseni\u201d denen b\u00f6lgelerdeki kamusal me\u015fruiyet krizinin en yak\u0131n \u00f6rne\u011fi. Son \u00fc\u00e7 y\u0131lda \u0130ran ve devlet d\u0131\u015f\u0131 m\u00fcttefikleri b\u00f6lge genelinde halk\u0131n tepkisine maruz kald\u0131. Irak\u2019ta 2019\u2019dan bu yana ya\u015fanan halk protestolar\u0131n\u0131n ana s\u00fctunlar\u0131ndan biri halk\u0131n \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n ve ba\u015fta Halk Seferberlik G\u00fc\u00e7leri (HSG) olmak \u00fczere Irakl\u0131 m\u00fcttefiklerinin Irak\u2019\u0131n sosyal ve politik sorunlar\u0131nda rol\u00fc oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnmesinden kaynaklanan \u00f6fkeydi.[17]<\/a> L\u00fcbnan\u2019da Hizbullah \u00fclkenin ekonomik ve toplumsal krizlerindeki rol\u00fc nedeniyle giderek daha fazla bask\u0131 hissediyor.[18]<\/a><\/p>\n\u015eimdi ise \u0130ran\u2019daki protestolar direni\u015f ekseninin merkezindeki me\u015fruiyet krizinin alt\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7izdi. Bu anlamda \u0130slam Cumhuriyeti\u2019nin protestolar\u0131 kontrol alt\u0131na almadaki ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131 ve ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131zl\u0131\u011f\u0131 m\u00fcttefiklerinin kendi \u00fclkelerindeki halk bask\u0131s\u0131yla ba\u015f etme kabiliyetini do\u011frudan etkileyecek. Bu ihtimal Hizbullah lideri Hasan Nasrallah\u2019\u0131n neden \u0130ran\u2019daki protestolar\u0131 \u201cBat\u0131l\u0131 ve Fars K\u00f6rfezi\u2019ndeki baz\u0131 \u00fclkelerin tahriklerinin\u201d[19]<\/a> sonucu olarak tan\u0131mlad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klayabilir.<\/p>\nSonu\u00e7<\/strong><\/span><\/h2>\n\u0130ran\u2019daki halk protestolar\u0131, en az\u0131ndan 2009\u2019dan bu yana, \u0130slam Cumhuriyeti\u2019ni me\u015fruiyetine y\u00f6nelik en b\u00fcy\u00fck meydan okumayla kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya getirdi. Protestocular\u0131n talepleri do\u011frudan d\u0131\u015f politika konular\u0131n\u0131 i\u00e7ermiyor olsa da \u0130ran\u2019daki i\u00e7 geli\u015fmelerin uluslararas\u0131 etkileri belirgin hale gelmeye ba\u015flad\u0131 bile. Protestolar ve protestoculara duyulan uluslararas\u0131 sempati \u0130slam Cumhuriyeti ile Bat\u0131 aras\u0131ndaki ili\u015fkilerin normalle\u015fme ihtimalini daha da azaltt\u0131. Bu durum ayn\u0131 zamanda KOEP\u2019in gelece\u011fine de \u015f\u00fcphe d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrd\u00fc. Protestocular bast\u0131r\u0131l\u0131rken Bat\u0131l\u0131 devletlerin \u0130slam Cumhuriyeti ile diplomasiyi me\u015frula\u015ft\u0131rmas\u0131 zor.<\/p>\n
Bu durumda \u0130ranl\u0131 liderler KOEP m\u00fczakerelerini sonuca ba\u011flama motivasyonlar\u0131n\u0131 kaybedebilir ve bunun yerine k\u0131r\u0131lgan stat\u00fckoyu uluslararas\u0131 bask\u0131y\u0131 y\u00f6netmenin en iyi yolu olarak g\u00f6rebilirler. Ayn\u0131 zamanda Rusya ve \u00c7in ile daha yak\u0131n ba\u011flar geli\u015ftirme motivasyonlar\u0131 daha da artacakt\u0131r. B\u00f6lge s\u00f6z konusu oldu\u011funda \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n krizi kom\u015fu \u00fclkelere, \u00f6zellikle de Irak\u2019a s\u00fcr\u00fckleme y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki apa\u00e7\u0131k niyeti \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n kom\u015fular\u0131yla ili\u015fkileri \u00fczerinde ciddi etkiler yaratabilir. Irak h\u00fck\u00fcmeti \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n kendi egemenli\u011fini ihlal etmesini \u015fimdiden g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir \u015fekilde protesto etti. Tahran ile Ba\u011fdat aras\u0131ndaki herhangi bir s\u00fcrt\u00fc\u015fme \u0130ran ile Suudi Arabistan aras\u0131nda Irak\u2019\u0131n ev sahipli\u011fi yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeleri de olumsuz etkileyebilir.<\/p>\n
Her hal\u00fck\u00e2rda protestolar\u0131n \u0130slam Cumhuriyeti\u2019nin d\u0131\u015f ili\u015fkilerine ger\u00e7ek etkisi iki etmene ba\u011fl\u0131: Birincisi, \u0130ran h\u00fck\u00fcmetinin durumu k\u0131sa vadede kontrol alt\u0131na al\u0131p alamayaca\u011f\u0131 ve al\u0131rsa bunun maliyetinin ne olaca\u011f\u0131. \u0130kinci fakt\u00f6r ise d\u0131\u015f akt\u00f6rlerin protestolar hakk\u0131nda hangi pozisyonu ald\u0131\u011f\u0131. Mesela Fars K\u00f6rfezi\u2019ndeki Arap devletleri protestocular\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131ktan desteklerse \u0130ranl\u0131 liderler misilleme yapmay\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnebilir ki bu da t\u0131rmand\u0131r\u0131c\u0131 bir d\u00f6ng\u00fcy\u00fc tetikleyip b\u00f6lgenin istikrar\u0131n\u0131 tehlikeye sokabilir. Halihaz\u0131rda t\u00fcm b\u00f6lgesel akt\u00f6rler \u0130ran\u2019daki protestolara y\u00f6nelik bekle ve g\u00f6r yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 benimserken \u00e7e\u015fitli muhtemel senaryolar i\u00e7in se\u00e7eneklerini de\u011ferlendiriyor g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Referanslar<\/strong><\/span><\/h2>\n
\n[1]<\/a> Nilo Tabrizy & Haley Willis, \u201cWhat Video Footage Reveals About the Protests in Iran\u201d, The New York Times, 04\/10\/2022, https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2022\/10\/04\/world\/asia\/iran-protest-video-analysis.html<\/a>.<\/p>\n[2]<\/a> France 24, \u201c\u2018We will fight\u2019: Iran protests following death of Mahsa Amini enter fourth week\u201d, 20\/09\/2022, https:\/\/www.france24.com\/en\/middle-east\/20221009-join-us-and-stand-up-iran-protests-following-death-of-mahsa-amini-enter-fourth-week<\/a>.<\/p>\n[3]<\/a> David Gritten, \u201cIran protests: Supreme leader blames unrest on US and Israel\u201d, BBC, 04\/10\/2022, https:\/\/www.bbc.com\/news\/world-middle-east-63118637<\/a>.<\/p>\n[4]<\/a> J. E. Dyer, \u201cNeither Gaza nor Lebanon, My Life for Iran!\u201d, Commentary, 18\/09\/2009, https:\/\/www.commentary.org\/j-e-dyer\/neither-gaza-nor-lebanon-my-life-for-iran\/<\/a>.<\/p>\n[5]<\/a> Aljazeera, \u201cIran\u2019s protests: All you need to know in 600 words\u201d, 20\/11\/2019, https:\/\/www.aljazeera.com\/news\/2019\/11\/20\/irans-protests-all-you-need-to-know-in-600-words<\/a>.<\/p>\n[6]<\/a> Erwin van Veen & Hamidreza Azizi, \u201c Death of the Deal: Why Tensions Will Rise With Iran\u201d, The National Interest\u201d, 16\/07\/2022, https:\/\/nationalinterest.org\/feature\/death-deal-why-tensions-will-rise-iran-203626<\/a>.<\/p>\n[7]<\/a> Reuters, \u201cCanada to ban leaders of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards from entry\u201d, 08\/10\/2022, https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/world\/canada-ban-irans-irgc-leaders-entry-expand-sanctions-2022-10-07\/<\/a>.<\/p>\n[8]<\/a> Iran International, \u201cUS Security Advisor Denounces Iran\u2019s Brutal Repression Of People\u201d, 25\/09\/2022, https:\/\/www.iranintl.com\/en\/202209252228<\/a>.<\/p>\n[9]<\/a>Eldar Mamedov, Twitter, 06\/10\/2022, https:\/\/twitter.com\/EldarMamedov4\/status\/1578057227495145472?cxt=HHwWgICwgYCsseYrAAAA<\/a>.<\/p>\n[10]<\/a> Titr-e-Bartar, \u201cAmir-Abdollahian Warns the European Union\u201d, 05\/10\/2022, https:\/\/www.titrebartar.com\/fa\/news\/191029<\/a>.<\/p>\n[11]<\/a> Hamidreza Azizi, \u201cWhat Iran really seeks from the SCO\u201d, 27\/09\/2022, https:\/\/amwaj.media\/article\/what-iran-really-seeks-from-the-sco<\/a>.<\/p>\n[12]<\/a> Mark Katz, \u201cWhy US allies in the Middle East aren\u2019t taking sides in the Ukraine war\u201d, The Atlantic Council, 08\/09\/2022, https:\/\/www.atlanticcouncil.org\/blogs\/new-atlanticist\/why-us-allies-in-the-middle-east-arent-taking-sides-in-the-ukraine-war\/<\/a>.<\/p>\n[13]<\/a> IRNA, \u201cIran and Russia signed a cooperation agreement in the field of information security\u201d, 26\/01\/2021, https:\/\/www.irna.ir\/news\/84199866\/<\/a>.<\/p>\n[14]<\/a> RFE-RL, \u201c13 Killed In Iraqi Kurdistan As Iran Escalates Attacks Amid Unrest At Home\u201d, 29\/09\/2022, https:\/\/www.rferl.org\/a\/iran-amini-protests-crackdown-might-force\/32055924.html<\/a>.<\/p>\n[15]<\/a> Amnesty International, \u201cIran: At least 82 Baluchi protesters and bystanders killed in bloody crackdown\u201d, 06\/10\/2022, https:\/\/www.amnesty.org\/en\/latest\/news\/2022\/10\/iran-at-least-82-baluchi-protesters-and-bystanders-killed-in-bloody-crackdown\/<\/a>.<\/p>\n[16]<\/a> Bloomberg, \u201cQatar Foreign Minister on Germany Energy Talks, Iran\u201d, 21\/09\/2022, https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/videos\/2022-09-20\/qatar-foreign-minister-on-germany-energy-talks-iran-video<\/a>.<\/p>\n[17]<\/a> The Economist, \u201cIraqis are getting fed up with Iran\u201d, 25\/03\/2021, https:\/\/www.economist.com\/middle-east-and-africa\/2021\/03\/25\/iraqis-are-getting-fed-up-with-iran<\/a>.<\/p>\n[18]<\/a> VOA News, \u201cHezbollah Hammered with Criticism Amid Lebanon’s Crises\u201d, 01\/09\/2021, https:\/\/www.voanews.com\/a\/middle-east_hezbollah-hammered-criticism-amid-lebanons-crises\/6210214.html<\/a>.<\/p>\n[19]<\/a> Faramarz Davar, \u201cWhy Does Hezbollah\u2019s Nasrollah Insult Iranian Protesters?\u201d, Iran Wire, 03\/10\/2022, https:\/\/iranwire.com\/en\/politics\/108253-why-does-hezbollahs-nasrollah-insult-iranian-protesters\/<\/a>.<\/p>\n<\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"\u0130ran\u2019da s\u00fcregelen halk protestolar\u0131 2009\u2019dan bu yana \u0130slam Cumhuriyeti\u2019nin me\u015fruiyetine y\u00f6nelik en b\u00fcy\u00fck meydan okuma. Protestocular\u0131n talepleri d\u0131\u015f politika konular\u0131n\u0131 do\u011frudan kapsamasa da \u0130ran\u2019daki i\u00e7 geli\u015fmelerin uluslararas\u0131 yans\u0131malar\u0131 belirginle\u015fmeye ba\u015flad\u0131 bile. Protestolar \u0130slam Cumhuriyeti ile Bat\u0131 aras\u0131ndaki ili\u015fkilerin normalle\u015fme ihtimalini azalt\u0131rken KOEP\u2019in gelece\u011fi konusundaki \u015f\u00fcpheleri de art\u0131rd\u0131<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":269,"featured_media":35128,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","ngg_post_thumbnail":0},"categories":[361],"tags":[17618,18874,18875],"asf_pub_issue":[10319],"asf_pub_region":[10321],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/35311"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/269"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=35311"}],"version-history":[{"count":9,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/35311\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":35424,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/35311\/revisions\/35424"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/35128"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=35311"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=35311"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=35311"},{"taxonomy":"asf_pub_issue","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/asf_pub_issue?post=35311"},{"taxonomy":"asf_pub_region","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/asf_pub_region?post=35311"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}
Uzman G\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fc<\/a> \/ \/ B\u00f6lgesel Politika<\/a><\/h6><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div>\u0130ran’daki Halk Protestolar\u0131n\u0131n Uluslararas\u0131 \u0130li\u015fkileri<\/span><\/h2>\n(Bu metin \u0130ngilizce orijinal versiyonundan terc\u00fcme edilmi\u015ftir.)<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\u00d6zet: <\/strong>\u0130ran\u2019da s\u00fcregelen halk protestolar\u0131 2009\u2019dan bu yana \u0130slam Cumhuriyeti\u2019nin me\u015fruiyetine y\u00f6nelik en b\u00fcy\u00fck meydan okuma. Protestocular\u0131n talepleri d\u0131\u015f politika konular\u0131n\u0131 do\u011frudan kapsamasa da \u0130ran\u2019daki i\u00e7 geli\u015fmelerin uluslararas\u0131 yans\u0131malar\u0131 belirginle\u015fmeye ba\u015flad\u0131 bile. Protestolar \u0130slam Cumhuriyeti ile Bat\u0131 aras\u0131ndaki ili\u015fkilerin normalle\u015fme ihtimalini azalt\u0131rken KOEP\u2019in gelece\u011fi konusundaki \u015f\u00fcpheleri de art\u0131rd\u0131. Ayn\u0131 zamanda \u0130ranl\u0131 liderler \u201cDo\u011fu\u2019ya bakma\u201d d\u0131\u015f politika stratejilerine ba\u011fl\u0131 kalmay\u0131 giderek daha hayati g\u00f6rmeye ba\u015flad\u0131. Bunlar\u0131n yan\u0131nda \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n krizi kom\u015fu \u00fclkelere s\u00fcr\u00fckleme y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki apa\u00e7\u0131k niyeti de \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n b\u00f6lgesel politikas\u0131 ve kom\u015fular\u0131yla ili\u015fkileri i\u00e7in ciddi sonu\u00e7lar do\u011furabilir.<\/p>\nGiri\u015f<\/strong><\/span><\/h2>\n\u0130ddialara g\u00f6re \u0130slami giyinme kurallar\u0131na riayet etmedi\u011fi i\u00e7in \u0130ran<\/a>\u2019\u0131n ahlak polisi taraf\u0131ndan \u015fiddet kullan\u0131larak tutuklanan 22 ya\u015f\u0131ndaki \u0130ranl\u0131 kad\u0131n Mahsa Emini\u2019nin \u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fc \u00fclke genelinde halk\u0131n \u00f6fkesine yol a\u00e7t\u0131. Bir yandan \u0130ran h\u00fck\u00fcmetinin vaka ile ilgili sorumluluk almamas\u0131 \u00f6te yandan ise halk\u0131n k\u0131rk y\u0131ld\u0131r s\u00fcren siyasi, ekonomik ve toplumsal politikalar\u0131n ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131zl\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan duydu\u011fu yayg\u0131n memnuniyetsizlik, \u00f6fkenin h\u0131zl\u0131 bir \u015fekilde \u00fclke geneli bir protesto hareketine d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fmesine neden oldu.<\/p>\nBir haftadan k\u0131sa bir s\u00fcre i\u00e7inde \u0130ran genelinde 80 \u015fehir[1]<\/a> insanlar\u0131n sadece kad\u0131nlara y\u00f6nelik zorunlu tesett\u00fcr politikas\u0131na veya hatta h\u00fck\u00fcmetin sosyal ve k\u00fclt\u00fcrel politikalar\u0131na de\u011fil ayn\u0131 zamanda bizzat siyasal sistem ve Dini Lider Ayetullah Seyyid Ali Hamaney\u2019e kar\u015f\u0131 sloganlar att\u0131\u011f\u0131 halk protestolar\u0131na tan\u0131k oldu. Ba\u015fka bir deyi\u015fle tesett\u00fcr zorunlulu\u011funu protesto etmek halk\u0131n \u0130slam Cumhuriyeti\u2019nden duydu\u011fu birikmi\u015f kini soka\u011fa getirmesinin fitili g\u00f6revini g\u00f6rd\u00fc.<\/p>\nH\u00fck\u00fcmetin protestolar\u0131 \u015fiddetle bast\u0131rmas\u0131 \u015fimdiye kadar d\u00fczinelerce \u00f6l\u00fcme ve y\u00fczlerce yaralanmaya sebep oldu.[2]<\/a> Ancak protestolar\u0131n geni\u015f co\u011frafi kapsam\u0131, kad\u0131nlardan \u00f6\u011frencilere ve \u00e7e\u015fitli etnik gruplara uzanan \u00e7e\u015fitlili\u011fi h\u00fck\u00fcmetin durumu tamamen kontrol alt\u0131na almas\u0131n\u0131 son derece g\u00fc\u00e7le\u015ftirdi. \u0130ran\u2019daki halk protestolar\u0131nda her zaman ya\u015fand\u0131\u011f\u0131 gibi h\u00fck\u00fcmet yetkilileri yabanc\u0131 mihraklar\u0131 \u00fclkede huzursuzluk \u00e7\u0131karmakla su\u00e7lad\u0131. Hamaney\u2019in s\u00fcregelen geli\u015fmelere tepkisi bu yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131 net bir \u015fekilde yans\u0131tt\u0131. 3 Ekim\u2019de yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir konu\u015fmada \u0130ran dini lideri, protestolar\u0131n \u201cABD, \u0130srail ve takip\u00e7ileri\u201d taraf\u0131ndan tezgahland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 iddia etti.[3]<\/a><\/p>\nFakat a\u015fina oldu\u011fumuz bu komplo anlat\u0131s\u0131 \u0130ran\u2019daki protestolar\u0131n tek uluslararas\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fc de\u011fil. Bir yandan d\u0131\u015f politika konular\u0131n\u0131n protestolara yol a\u00e7\u0131p a\u00e7mad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 veya en az\u0131ndan varsa etkisinin boyutunu irdelemek hayati \u00f6nem ta\u015f\u0131yor. \u00d6te yandan protestolar\u0131n \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n Bat\u0131 ile ili\u015fkilerini, \u201cDo\u011fu\u2019ya bakma\u201d d\u0131\u015f politika stratejisini ve kom\u015fular\u0131 ve daha geni\u015f anlamda Ortado\u011fu ile olan m\u00fcnasebetlerini etkilemesi bekleniyor.<\/p>\n
D\u0131\u015f politikan\u0131n s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 rol\u00fc<\/strong><\/span><\/h2>\nProtestolar s\u0131ras\u0131nda at\u0131lan pop\u00fcler sloganlar\u0131 insanlar\u0131n taleplerini anlamak i\u00e7in bir g\u00f6sterge olarak al\u0131rsak son protestolar ge\u00e7mi\u015fteki di\u011fer kitlesel protestolardan ciddi anlamda farkl\u0131. Asl\u0131nda 1979 \u0130slam devriminden sonra ve \u00f6zellikle de ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz birka\u00e7 y\u0131lda \u0130ran sokaklar\u0131 irili ufakl\u0131 protestolara tan\u0131k oldu. Yine de 2009 Ye\u015fil Hareketi ve Kas\u0131m 2019 halk protestolar\u0131n\u0131 son k\u0131rk y\u0131l\u0131n en ciddi protesto dalgalar\u0131 olarak de\u011ferlendirebiliriz. \u0130ki olayda da h\u00fck\u00fcmetin d\u0131\u015f politikas\u0131ndan duyulan memnuniyetsizlik sloganlara net bir \u015fekilde yans\u0131m\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Ye\u015fil Hareket \u00e7o\u011fu \u0130ranl\u0131n\u0131n hileli oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc 2009 cumhurba\u015fkanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 se\u00e7imlerine bir tepki olarak ba\u015flam\u0131\u015ft\u0131 ama h\u00fck\u00fcmetin i\u00e7 ve d\u0131\u015f politikas\u0131ndan duyulan derin b\u0131kk\u0131nl\u0131\u011f\u0131 da g\u00f6steriyordu.<\/p>\n
\u201cNe Gazze\u2019ye ne L\u00fcbnan\u2019a, can\u0131m feda \u0130ran\u2019a!\u201d d\u00f6nemin \u00fcnl\u00fc sloganlar\u0131ndan biriydi[4]<\/a> ve hem hareketin milliyet\u00e7i y\u00f6n\u00fcne hem de \u00fclkenin milli menfaatlerine odaklanmak yerine d\u00fcnyadaki \u0130slamc\u0131 hareketlere deste\u011fi \u00f6nceleyen devlet ideolojisine itiraza i\u015faret ediyordu. Ye\u015fil hareket ayn\u0131 zamanda kendini demokrat ve liberal bir hareket olarak tan\u0131ml\u0131yor ve bu y\u00fczden ba\u015fta Birle\u015fik Devletler olmak \u00fczere d\u00fcnyadaki demokratik devletlerden destek bekliyordu. \u201c[ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131] Obama ya bizdensin ya onlardan\u201d slogan\u0131 bu beklentiye at\u0131f yap\u0131yordu.<\/p>\nKas\u0131m 2019 protestolar\u0131 birincil olarak ekonomik sorunlar nedeniyle ortaya \u00e7\u0131km\u0131\u015ft\u0131 ve toplumun d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck gelirli kesimleri sokaktaki protestocular\u0131n \u00e7o\u011funlu\u011funu olu\u015fturuyordu.[5]<\/a> Bir yandan yolsuzluk ve ekonominin k\u00f6t\u00fc y\u00f6netilmesi, \u00f6te yandan ABD\u2019nin fel\u00e7 edici yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 ya\u015fam ko\u015fullar\u0131n\u0131 bir\u00e7ok \u0130ranl\u0131 i\u00e7in tahamm\u00fcl edilemez hale getirmi\u015fti. Ayn\u0131 zamanda bir\u00e7ok insan \u0130ran h\u00fck\u00fcmetinin s\u0131n\u0131r \u00f6tesindeki askeri m\u00fcdahalelerinin \u00fclke i\u00e7indeki ekonomik sorunlar\u0131 daha da k\u00f6t\u00fcle\u015ftirdi\u011fine ve halk\u0131n ya\u015fam\u0131n\u0131 iyile\u015ftirmek i\u00e7in kullan\u0131lmas\u0131 gereken paralar\u0131n ba\u015fka yerlerde harcand\u0131\u011f\u0131na inan\u0131yordu. Bu kanaat bir\u00e7ok protestoda at\u0131lan \u201cSuriye\u2019yi b\u0131rak, bize bak\u201d slogan\u0131na yans\u0131m\u0131\u015ft\u0131.<\/p>\nAncak bu kez protestolarda d\u0131\u015f politikayla ili\u015fkili sloganlar neredeyse hi\u00e7 yok.<\/strong><\/span><\/h2>\nBunun yerine iki tip talep ba\u015fat \u00f6nem arz ediyor: birincisi, kad\u0131n haklar\u0131 ve sosyal \u00f6zg\u00fcrl\u00fckler gibi temel insan haklar\u0131. Protestolar\u0131n ana slogan\u0131 olan \u201cKad\u0131n, hayat, \u00f6zg\u00fcrl\u00fck\u201d bu talepleri sembolize ediyor. \u0130kincisi, \u0130slam Cumhuriyeti\u2019nin siyasal sisteminin b\u00fct\u00fcn\u00fcne muhalefet mollalara ve dini lidere kar\u015f\u0131 at\u0131lan her t\u00fcr slogana yans\u0131d\u0131. Ba\u015fka bir deyi\u015fle son 13 y\u0131l s\u00fcresince \u0130ran\u2019daki protesto hareketinin oda\u011f\u0131n\u0131n kademeli olarak siyasal reform taleplerinden ekonomik sorunlara, ard\u0131ndan da temel sosyal \u00f6zg\u00fcrl\u00fcklere ve insan haklar\u0131na kayd\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00f6ylenebilir.<\/p>\n
Ayn\u0131 zamanda protestocular belirli politika ve prosed\u00fcrlerden ziyade artan bi\u00e7imde siyasal sistemi bir b\u00fct\u00fcn olarak hedef al\u0131yor. \u0130slam Cumhuriyeti\u2019nin giderek daha fazla otoriterli\u011fe y\u00f6nelmesi bir\u00e7ok insan\u0131 herhangi bir politika de\u011fi\u015fiminin ancak siyasal sistemde k\u00f6kl\u00fc bir de\u011fi\u015fiklikle m\u00fcmk\u00fcn olabilece\u011fine inanmaya sevk etti. Ayr\u0131ca 2009\u2019dan farkl\u0131 olarak sokaktaki insanlar d\u0131\u015far\u0131dan destek istemiyor. Bu durum her t\u00fcr de\u011fi\u015fimin \u00fclke i\u00e7inden ba\u015flat\u0131lmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fi ve d\u0131\u015f deste\u011fin de\u011fi\u015fimin esas fakt\u00f6r olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki kolektif fark\u0131ndal\u0131\u011f\u0131n bir i\u015fareti olarak g\u00f6r\u00fclebilir. Bu y\u00fczden Hamaney Bat\u0131\u2019y\u0131 protestolar\u0131 destekleyerek \u0130ran\u2019\u0131 kar\u0131\u015f\u0131kl\u0131\u011fa s\u00fcr\u00fcklemekle su\u00e7larken protestocular asl\u0131nda Bat\u0131\u2019y\u0131 hesaplar\u0131na dahil etmedi.<\/p>\n
\u0130ran ile Bat\u0131: Duvardaki bir ba\u015fka tu\u011fla<\/strong><\/span><\/h2>\n\u0130ran\u2019daki son protestolar Tahran\u2019\u0131n Washington ve Avrupa ba\u015fkentleriyle ili\u015fkilerinin en hassas a\u015famalar\u0131ndan birine girdi\u011fi bir zamana denk geldi. \u0130ran ile k\u00fcresel g\u00fc\u00e7ler aras\u0131ndaki bir y\u0131ldan fazlad\u0131r s\u00fcren 2015 \u0130ran n\u00fckleer anla\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131 (resmi ad\u0131yla Kapsaml\u0131 Ortak Eylem Plan\u0131 yahut KOEP) diriltme m\u00fczakerelerinden sonra \u0130ran ile ABD aras\u0131nda hala ciddi ihtilaflar var. Nitekim protestolar ba\u015flamadan \u00e7ok \u00f6nce o ihtilaflar m\u00fczakereleri durma noktas\u0131na getirmi\u015fti.[6]<\/a> \u00dcstelik \u0130ran n\u00fckleer silah \u00fcretme kapasitesine hi\u00e7 olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 kadar yak\u0131n ve n\u00fckleer program\u0131ndaki ilerlemeyi Bat\u0131\u2019y\u0131 daha fazla tavize zorlamak i\u00e7in bir koz olarak kullanmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131yor.<\/p>\nBu \u015fartlar alt\u0131nda yayg\u0131n halk protestolar\u0131 n\u00fckleer m\u00fczakerelerin Bat\u0131l\u0131 taraflar\u0131n\u0131 zor duruma soktu. Bir yandan protestolar\u0131n otoriterlik kar\u015f\u0131t\u0131 ve liberal niteli\u011fi \u00f6te yandan ise k\u00fcresel kamuoyunun \u0130ran\u2019daki protestoculara, \u00f6zellikle de kad\u0131nlara olan benzeri g\u00f6r\u00fclmemi\u015f sempatisi Bat\u0131l\u0131 h\u00fck\u00fcmetlerin \u0130ran\u2019da ya\u015fananlar\u0131 g\u00f6rmezden gelmesini neredeyse imk\u00e2ns\u0131z hale getirdi. Bu nedenle Avrupa devletleri, Kanada ve ABD \u0130ran\u2019daki protestocular\u0131n \u015fiddetle bast\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 k\u0131nay\u0131p \u0130ran h\u00fck\u00fcmetine \u015fiddeti durdurma \u00e7a\u011fr\u0131s\u0131nda bulundu. Washington ve Ottawa, protestolar\u0131 bast\u0131rmada yer alan \u0130ranl\u0131 yetkililere yapt\u0131r\u0131m uygularken[7]<\/a> AB benzer ad\u0131mlar atmay\u0131 planl\u0131yor.<\/p>\nBu arada Bat\u0131\u2019n\u0131n protestolar\u0131n \u015fiddetle bast\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k olarak \u0130slam Cumhuriyeti ile m\u00fczakereleri durdurmaya haz\u0131r oldu\u011funa dair hi\u00e7bir emare yok. ABD h\u00fck\u00fcmeti hala diplomasiyi \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n n\u00fckleer program\u0131n\u0131 ele alman\u0131n en iyi yolu olarak g\u00f6rd\u00fcklerini a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131.[8]<\/a> Avrupa Parlamentosu da protestolar nedeniyle \u0130ran\u2019la n\u00fckleer g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeleri ask\u0131ya alma fikrini reddetti.[9]<\/a> ABD ve Avrupa, \u0130ran\u2019la diplomasiyi ask\u0131ya alman\u0131n \u0130ranl\u0131 liderlere n\u00fckleer programlar\u0131n\u0131 silahla\u015ft\u0131rma f\u0131rsat ve cesaretini verebilece\u011finden endi\u015fe ediyor.<\/p>\nBuradaki arg\u00fcmanlar\u0131, n\u00fckleer silahlar\u0131 olan otoriter bir devletin b\u00f6lgesel ve uluslararas\u0131 bar\u0131\u015f ve g\u00fcvenli\u011fe \u00e7ok daha b\u00fcy\u00fck tehdit olu\u015fturabilece\u011fi. Bu kayg\u0131lar\u0131n fark\u0131nda olan \u0130ranl\u0131 yetkililer de Bat\u0131\u2019dan herhangi bir kararl\u0131 ad\u0131m at\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6nlemek i\u00e7in Avrupa\u2019ya \u015fantaj yapmaya ba\u015flam\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. \u00d6rne\u011fin \u0130ran D\u0131\u015fi\u015fleri Bakan\u0131 H\u00fcseyin Emir-Abdullahiyan Avrupa\u2019n\u0131n herhangi bir \u201cfevri ve d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcncesizce\u201d hareketine \u201c\u0130ran\u2019\u0131n etkili ve m\u00fctekabil bir hareketle\u201d kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k vermesiyle sonu\u00e7lanaca\u011f\u0131 konusunda Avrupa\u2019y\u0131 uyard\u0131.[10]<\/a> \u00d6yle g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor ki Bakan bu uyar\u0131yla \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n n\u00fckleer program\u0131n\u0131 daha da geli\u015ftirme ihtimaline g\u00f6nderme yap\u0131yor.<\/p>\nBu itibarla \u0130ran h\u00fck\u00fcmeti uluslararas\u0131 bask\u0131y\u0131 azaltmak i\u00e7in KOEP\u2019i rehin alm\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Bu durumda KOEP\u2019nin kaderi hakk\u0131nda iki senaryo akla geliyor. Birinci senaryoda \u0130ran anla\u015fmay\u0131 canland\u0131rma iste\u011fini dile getirmeyi s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcrken e\u015f zamanl\u0131 olarak Bat\u0131l\u0131 taraflara \u015fantaj yaparak n\u00fckleer konusunu Bat\u0131\u2019n\u0131n ilgi oda\u011f\u0131nda tutmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015facak. \u0130ranl\u0131 liderler, n\u00fckleer sorunu \u015fimdi \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcl\u00fcrse Bat\u0131\u2019n\u0131n \u0130slam Cumhuriyeti\u2019ne insan haklar\u0131 sorunlar\u0131 konusunda daha rahat bask\u0131 yapabilece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyor olabilir. H\u00fck\u00fcmet bask\u0131 veya ba\u015fka ara\u00e7larla k\u0131sa vadede durumu nispeten kontrol alt\u0131nda tutmay\u0131 ba\u015far\u0131rsa bu en muhtemel senaryo olur. \u0130kinci senaryoda ise i\u00e7 kar\u0131\u015f\u0131kl\u0131k kontrolden \u00e7\u0131karsa \u0130ran m\u00fczakerelerde baz\u0131 esneklikler g\u00f6sterebilir.<\/p>\n
Bu durumdaki mant\u0131\u011fa g\u00f6re h\u00fck\u00fcmet anla\u015fmay\u0131 yeniden hayata ge\u00e7irip yapt\u0131r\u0131mlardan kurtularak kontrol\u00fc yeniden sa\u011flamak i\u00e7in yeni mali kaynaklara eri\u015fim kazan\u0131rken protesto etmelerinin esas nedeni ekonomik zorluklar olan toplumun baz\u0131 kesimlerinin sadakatini tekrar sat\u0131n alabilecek. Bu durumda rejimin bekas\u0131na y\u00f6nelik kayg\u0131lar, en az\u0131ndan h\u00fck\u00fcmet i\u00e7 cephede g\u00fcvende hissedene kadar, Bat\u0131\u2019dan gelmesi muhtemel yeni taleplerle ilgili de\u011ferlendirmelere a\u011f\u0131r basabilir. Her h\u00e2l\u00fck\u00e2rda KOEP olsun veya olmas\u0131n son protestolar, \u0130slam Cumhuriyeti ile Bat\u0131 aras\u0131ndaki u\u00e7urumu o kadar geni\u015fletti ki iki taraf aras\u0131ndaki ili\u015fkilerin \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclebilir gelecekte normalle\u015fmesi beklenemez h\u00e2le geldi.<\/p>\n
\u0130ran ile Do\u011fulu g\u00fc\u00e7ler: Otoriter empatisi<\/strong><\/span><\/h2>\nBat\u0131 ile ili\u015fkileri y\u00f6netmede ya\u015fanan yeni zorluklar\u0131n \u0130slam Cumhuriyeti\u2019ni \u201cDo\u011fuya bakma\u201d politikas\u0131n\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmeye daha kararl\u0131 hale getirmesi bekleniyor. Ger\u00e7ekte Tahran\u2019\u0131n \u201cDo\u011fu\u2019ya\u201d meyli protestolardan \u00f6ncesine dayan\u0131yor ve \u0130ran d\u0131\u015f politikas\u0131ndaki kademeli bir stratejik kaymaya i\u015faret ediyor. Protestocular Mahsa Emini\u2019nin \u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcnden sonra g\u00f6steri yaparken \u0130ran Cumhurba\u015fkan\u0131 \u0130brahim Reisi, \u015eanghay \u0130\u015fbirli\u011fi \u00d6rg\u00fct\u00fc (\u015e\u0130\u00d6) y\u0131ll\u0131k zirvesine kat\u0131lmak \u00fczere \u00d6zbekistan\u2019dayd\u0131. Zirvede \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n \u015e\u0130\u00d6 i\u00e7indeki stat\u00fcs\u00fc 17 y\u0131l sonra g\u00f6zlemci devletten tam \u00fcyeye y\u00fckseltildi. Bu geli\u015fme \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n d\u0131\u015f politikas\u0131nda artan Do\u011fu\u2019ya y\u00f6neli\u015fin en belirgin sembol\u00fc olarak de\u011ferlendirilebilir.[11]<\/a><\/p>\n\u0130ranl\u0131 liderlerin bak\u0131\u015f a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131na g\u00f6re uluslararas\u0131 sistem giderek ABD merkezli tek kutuplu yap\u0131dan Bat\u0131l\u0131 olmayan g\u00fc\u00e7lerin, \u00f6zellikle de \u00c7in ve Rusya\u2019n\u0131n daha belirleyici bir rol oynad\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ok kutuplulu\u011fa h\u0131zla evriliyor. Bu d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm \u0130ran gibi revizyonist devletlere, Bat\u0131 ile olan s\u00fcrekli kar\u015f\u0131la\u015fmalar\u0131ndan kaynaklanan sistemsel bask\u0131lardan kendilerini kurtar\u0131p y\u00fckselen g\u00fc\u00e7ler aras\u0131ndan daha g\u00fcvenilir ortaklar bulma imk\u00e2n\u0131 sunuyor. Nitekim bu durum \u0130ran gibi b\u00f6lgesel g\u00fc\u00e7lere, y\u00fckselen \u00e7ok kutuplu sistemdeki rollerini iyile\u015ftirme f\u0131rsat\u0131 sunan bir ge\u00e7i\u015f d\u00fczensizli\u011fine yol a\u00e7t\u0131. Bu perspektiften Rusya\u2019n\u0131n Ukrayna\u2019daki sava\u015f\u0131 ve ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 uluslararas\u0131 tepkiler yeni bir d\u00fczenin do\u011fu\u015funun en a\u015fik\u00e2r i\u015faretleridir.<\/p>\n
\u0130ranl\u0131 liderler, ABD\u2019nin Ortado\u011fu ve daha geni\u015f anlamda K\u00fcresel G\u00fcney\u2019deki geleneksel m\u00fcttefiklerini Moskova\u2019y\u0131 yaln\u0131zla\u015ft\u0131rma kampanyas\u0131na katamamas\u0131n\u0131[12]<\/a> ilgiyle izliyor ve Bat\u0131\u2019n\u0131n Tahran\u2019\u0131 yaln\u0131zla\u015ft\u0131rma giri\u015fimlerinin de benzer \u015fekilde ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131z olaca\u011f\u0131 sonucunu \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor. Fakat bu nihai ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131zl\u0131\u011f\u0131n elzem bir \u00f6nko\u015fulu \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n Rusya ve \u00c7in ile azami koordinasyon i\u00e7inde olmas\u0131 olacakt\u0131r. Bu durum \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n Rusya\u2019n\u0131n Ukrayna\u2019ya kar\u015f\u0131 ba\u015flatt\u0131\u011f\u0131 sald\u0131r\u0131 sava\u015f\u0131na verdi\u011fi deste\u011fi a\u00e7\u0131klayabilir.<\/p>\nAncak bu jeopolitik hesaplar\u0131n \u00f6tesinde i\u00e7 politika m\u00fclahazalar\u0131 da \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n Do\u011fu\u2019ya bakma stratejisinin \u00f6nemli bir itkisi olageldi. Nitekim \u0130slam Cumhuriyeti\u2019nin y\u00f6netiminin artan otoriterli\u011fi ile \u00c7in ve Rusya\u2019yla ba\u011flar\u0131n\u0131 geli\u015ftirme iste\u011fi aras\u0131nda do\u011frudan bir ba\u011flant\u0131 var. \u0130ran\u2019daki insan haklar\u0131n\u0131n durumunu ve siyasal ve sosyal \u00f6zg\u00fcrl\u00fcklerin olmay\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 her zaman ele\u015ftiren Avrupa\u2019n\u0131n aksine kendileri de otoriter devletler olan Rusya ve \u00c7in, \u0130slam Cumhuriyeti i\u00e7in daha rahat ortaklard\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Son y\u0131llarda \u0130ran h\u00fck\u00fcmeti \u00c7in teknolojilerini, \u0130nternet ve haberle\u015fme a\u011flar\u0131 \u00fczerinde daha s\u0131k\u0131 kontrol kurarak vatanda\u015flar\u0131n\u0131 kontrol alt\u0131nda tutmak i\u00e7in giderek daha \u00e7ok kulland\u0131. Ge\u00e7en y\u0131l \u0130ran Rusya ile de bili\u015fim g\u00fcvenli\u011fi alan\u0131nda bir i\u015f birli\u011fi anla\u015fmas\u0131 imzalad\u0131.[13]<\/a> Bu y\u00fczden \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n Rusya ve \u00c7in\u2019in uluslararas\u0131 sistemde y\u00fckselen rol\u00fcn\u00fc alg\u0131lay\u0131\u015f\u0131, Bat\u0131 ile ili\u015fkilerin umut vaat etmeyen durumu ayr\u0131ca Tahran, Moskova ve Pekin aras\u0131ndaki otoriter empatisi protestolar\u0131n ard\u0131ndan \u0130slam Cumhuriyeti\u2019ni Do\u011fu\u2019ya daha da itecek fakt\u00f6rler aras\u0131nda yer al\u0131yor.<\/p>\nBurada, mevcut ko\u015fullar alt\u0131nda Pekin\u2019in deste\u011finin \u0130slam Cumhuriyeti i\u00e7in daha hayati \u00f6nemde olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtmek gerekir \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc Moskova temelde Bat\u0131\u2019n\u0131n yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131ndan ve Rus halk\u0131n\u0131n Kremlin\u2019in Ukrayna\u2019daki sava\u015f i\u00e7in ortaya koydu\u011fu son \u201ck\u0131smi seferberlik\u201d planlar\u0131ndan duydu\u011fu memnuniyetsizlik nedeniyle kendi artan i\u00e7 sorunlar\u0131yla cebelle\u015fiyor. Yine de i\u00e7 kar\u0131\u015f\u0131kl\u0131klar geri d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fc olmayan bir noktaya ula\u015f\u0131rsa \u00c7in\u2019in \u0130slam Cumhuriyeti\u2019nin ayakta kalmas\u0131na nas\u0131l yard\u0131m edebilece\u011fini hayal etmek zor.<\/p>\n
Pekin en fazla \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n petrol\u00fcn\u00fc almaya devam edebilir veya bir ihtimal, Tahran\u2019a bor\u00e7 veya di\u011fer ekonomik yard\u0131m t\u00fcrleriyle destek sunabilir. Ancak daha \u00f6nce de\u011finildi\u011fi gibi sokaktaki insanlar\u0131n talepleri ekonomik ko\u015fullar\u0131n iyile\u015ftirilmesini \u00e7ok a\u015f\u0131yor. Bu nedenle ister KOEP\u2019in canland\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 isterse \u00c7in yard\u0131m\u0131ndan kaynaklans\u0131n hi\u00e7bir finansal m\u00fckafat \u0130ran h\u00fck\u00fcmetinin halk\u0131n huzursuzlu\u011funun k\u00f6kleriyle ba\u015f etmesine yard\u0131m edemez.<\/p>\n
\u0130ran ile Ortado\u011fu: Karma\u015fa ekseni<\/strong><\/span><\/h2>\n\u0130ran\u2019\u0131n b\u00f6lgesel politikas\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan son protestolar en az \u00fc\u00e7 y\u00f6nden \u00f6nem arz ediyor. Birincisi, \u0130ran h\u00fck\u00fcmetinin kamuoyunu i\u00e7 sorunlar\u0131n temel nedenlerinden ba\u015fka y\u00f6ne \u00e7ekmek i\u00e7in krizi d\u0131\u015fsalla\u015ft\u0131rma giri\u015fimi. \u0130kincisi, b\u00f6lge devletlerinin protestolara tepkisi. Ve sonuncu ama bir o kadar \u00f6nemlisi, protestolar\u0131n \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n b\u00f6lge genelindeki m\u00fcttefik a\u011f\u0131 yahut \u201cdireni\u015f ekseni\u201d \u00fczerindeki muhtemel etkileri.<\/p>\n
Mahsa Emini\u2019nin Sak\u0131z kentinden bir K\u00fcrt olmas\u0131, protestolar\u0131n ilk g\u00fcnlerinde baz\u0131 g\u00f6zlemcileri bunun \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n hassas etnik fay hatlar\u0131n\u0131 etkileyebilece\u011fi ve sonucunda K\u00fcrt n\u00fcfuslu b\u00f6lgelerde ayr\u0131l\u0131k\u00e7\u0131 hisleri artt\u0131rabilece\u011fi uyar\u0131s\u0131nda bulunmaya sevk etmi\u015fti. Ancak ger\u00e7ekte ya\u015fanan, etnisite unsurunun k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck bir rol oynad\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00fclke geneli bir tepki oldu. Yine de protestolar\u0131n patlak vermesinden k\u0131sa bir s\u00fcre sonra \u0130slam Devrimi Muhaf\u0131zlar\u0131 Ordusu (\u0130DMO) \u201cayr\u0131l\u0131k\u00e7\u0131 ve ter\u00f6rist gruplar\u0131n artan faaliyetleri\u201d olarak tan\u0131mlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 duruma kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k olarak Irak K\u00fcrdistan\u0131\u2019nda bulunan \u0130ranl\u0131 K\u00fcrt muhalif gruplar\u0131 hedef almaya ba\u015flad\u0131.[14]<\/a> \u00dcstelik bunlar ayr\u0131l\u0131k\u00e7\u0131 K\u00fcrt milislerin protestolarda aktif rol ald\u0131\u011f\u0131na ili\u015fkin hi\u00e7bir g\u00fcvenilir kan\u0131t olmamas\u0131na ra\u011fmen yap\u0131ld\u0131.<\/p>\nBu nedenle \u00f6yle g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor ki \u0130slam Cumhuriyeti, K\u00fcrt gruplar\u0131 k\u0131\u015fk\u0131rt\u0131p onlar\u0131 \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmaya s\u00fcr\u00fckleyerek ayr\u0131l\u0131k\u00e7\u0131l\u0131k tehdidini \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131karmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131yor. \u0130ranl\u0131 yetkililer b\u00f6ylelikle i\u00e7 atmosferi g\u00fcvenlikle\u015ftirip insanlar\u0131 protestolara kat\u0131lmaktan vazge\u00e7irmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131yor g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Belu\u00e7 etnik az\u0131nl\u0131\u011f\u0131n ya\u015fad\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00fcney \u0130ran\u2019daki Sistan ve Belucistan eyaletleri de h\u00fck\u00fcmetin benzer bir yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131na tan\u0131k oldu. Eyaletin ba\u015fkenti Zahidan\u2019da ya\u015fanan 30 Eyl\u00fcl protestolar\u0131 s\u0131ras\u0131nda en az 80 ki\u015fi \u00f6ld\u00fcr\u00fcld\u00fc.[15]<\/a> Resmi medya ve yetkililer bu kentteki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131 \u201cter\u00f6rist ve ayr\u0131l\u0131k\u00e7\u0131\u201d unsurlara atfediyor.<\/p>\nB\u00f6lge devletlerinin tepkilerine gelince, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n Arap kom\u015fular\u0131n\u0131n neredeyse hepsi protestolar konusunda bir duru\u015f sergilemekten ka\u00e7\u0131nd\u0131. \u0130ran h\u00fck\u00fcmetinin Suudi fonlu Fars\u00e7a medya organlar\u0131n\u0131 protestolar\u0131 alevlendirmekle su\u00e7lamas\u0131na ra\u011fmen \u015fimdiye kadar Riyad konu hakk\u0131nda sessiz kald\u0131. Ayn\u0131 durum di\u011fer K\u00f6rfez \u0130\u015fbirli\u011fi Konseyi (K\u0130K) \u00fcyeleri ve genel anlamda Arap devletleri i\u00e7in de ge\u00e7erli.<\/p>\n
\u015eimdiye kadar bunun tek istisnas\u0131 protestolar\u0131 \u201ci\u00e7 mesele\u201d olarak tan\u0131mlayan ama Doha\u2019n\u0131n protestolar\u0131n \u015fiddet yoluyla bast\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 oldu\u011funu da vurgulayan Katar D\u0131\u015fi\u015fleri Bakan\u0131 Muhammed bin Abdurrahman el-Sani oldu.[16]<\/a> K\u00f6rfez monar\u015filerinin temkinli duru\u015funun arkas\u0131ndaki esas neden Arap Bahar\u0131\u2019na tepkilerinde de g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc gibi her t\u00fcr taban hareketine ve pop\u00fclist rejim de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fine kategorik olarak kar\u015f\u0131 olmalar\u0131 olabilir. Nitekim \u0130ran h\u00fck\u00fcmetinin devrimle y\u0131k\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131n kendi \u00fclkelerinde de devlet istikrar\u0131n\u0131 tehdit edecek benzer hareketlere ilham kayna\u011f\u0131 olmas\u0131ndan korkuyor da olabilirler. Ancak protestolar\u0131 \u0130slam Cumhuriyeti\u2019ne y\u00f6nelik varolu\u015fsal bir tehdit olarak de\u011ferlendirmiyor ve onlar\u0131 destekleyerek Tahran\u2019\u0131 tahrik etmek istemiyor olmalar\u0131 daha muhtemel.<\/p>\nSon olarak protestolar\u0131n b\u00f6lgesel \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc y\u00f6n\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan \u0130ran\u2019da ya\u015fananlar \u201cdireni\u015f ekseni\u201d denen b\u00f6lgelerdeki kamusal me\u015fruiyet krizinin en yak\u0131n \u00f6rne\u011fi. Son \u00fc\u00e7 y\u0131lda \u0130ran ve devlet d\u0131\u015f\u0131 m\u00fcttefikleri b\u00f6lge genelinde halk\u0131n tepkisine maruz kald\u0131. Irak\u2019ta 2019\u2019dan bu yana ya\u015fanan halk protestolar\u0131n\u0131n ana s\u00fctunlar\u0131ndan biri halk\u0131n \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n ve ba\u015fta Halk Seferberlik G\u00fc\u00e7leri (HSG) olmak \u00fczere Irakl\u0131 m\u00fcttefiklerinin Irak\u2019\u0131n sosyal ve politik sorunlar\u0131nda rol\u00fc oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnmesinden kaynaklanan \u00f6fkeydi.[17]<\/a> L\u00fcbnan\u2019da Hizbullah \u00fclkenin ekonomik ve toplumsal krizlerindeki rol\u00fc nedeniyle giderek daha fazla bask\u0131 hissediyor.[18]<\/a><\/p>\n\u015eimdi ise \u0130ran\u2019daki protestolar direni\u015f ekseninin merkezindeki me\u015fruiyet krizinin alt\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7izdi. Bu anlamda \u0130slam Cumhuriyeti\u2019nin protestolar\u0131 kontrol alt\u0131na almadaki ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131 ve ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131zl\u0131\u011f\u0131 m\u00fcttefiklerinin kendi \u00fclkelerindeki halk bask\u0131s\u0131yla ba\u015f etme kabiliyetini do\u011frudan etkileyecek. Bu ihtimal Hizbullah lideri Hasan Nasrallah\u2019\u0131n neden \u0130ran\u2019daki protestolar\u0131 \u201cBat\u0131l\u0131 ve Fars K\u00f6rfezi\u2019ndeki baz\u0131 \u00fclkelerin tahriklerinin\u201d[19]<\/a> sonucu olarak tan\u0131mlad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klayabilir.<\/p>\nSonu\u00e7<\/strong><\/span><\/h2>\n\u0130ran\u2019daki halk protestolar\u0131, en az\u0131ndan 2009\u2019dan bu yana, \u0130slam Cumhuriyeti\u2019ni me\u015fruiyetine y\u00f6nelik en b\u00fcy\u00fck meydan okumayla kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya getirdi. Protestocular\u0131n talepleri do\u011frudan d\u0131\u015f politika konular\u0131n\u0131 i\u00e7ermiyor olsa da \u0130ran\u2019daki i\u00e7 geli\u015fmelerin uluslararas\u0131 etkileri belirgin hale gelmeye ba\u015flad\u0131 bile. Protestolar ve protestoculara duyulan uluslararas\u0131 sempati \u0130slam Cumhuriyeti ile Bat\u0131 aras\u0131ndaki ili\u015fkilerin normalle\u015fme ihtimalini daha da azaltt\u0131. Bu durum ayn\u0131 zamanda KOEP\u2019in gelece\u011fine de \u015f\u00fcphe d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrd\u00fc. Protestocular bast\u0131r\u0131l\u0131rken Bat\u0131l\u0131 devletlerin \u0130slam Cumhuriyeti ile diplomasiyi me\u015frula\u015ft\u0131rmas\u0131 zor.<\/p>\n
Bu durumda \u0130ranl\u0131 liderler KOEP m\u00fczakerelerini sonuca ba\u011flama motivasyonlar\u0131n\u0131 kaybedebilir ve bunun yerine k\u0131r\u0131lgan stat\u00fckoyu uluslararas\u0131 bask\u0131y\u0131 y\u00f6netmenin en iyi yolu olarak g\u00f6rebilirler. Ayn\u0131 zamanda Rusya ve \u00c7in ile daha yak\u0131n ba\u011flar geli\u015ftirme motivasyonlar\u0131 daha da artacakt\u0131r. B\u00f6lge s\u00f6z konusu oldu\u011funda \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n krizi kom\u015fu \u00fclkelere, \u00f6zellikle de Irak\u2019a s\u00fcr\u00fckleme y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki apa\u00e7\u0131k niyeti \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n kom\u015fular\u0131yla ili\u015fkileri \u00fczerinde ciddi etkiler yaratabilir. Irak h\u00fck\u00fcmeti \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n kendi egemenli\u011fini ihlal etmesini \u015fimdiden g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir \u015fekilde protesto etti. Tahran ile Ba\u011fdat aras\u0131ndaki herhangi bir s\u00fcrt\u00fc\u015fme \u0130ran ile Suudi Arabistan aras\u0131nda Irak\u2019\u0131n ev sahipli\u011fi yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeleri de olumsuz etkileyebilir.<\/p>\n
Her hal\u00fck\u00e2rda protestolar\u0131n \u0130slam Cumhuriyeti\u2019nin d\u0131\u015f ili\u015fkilerine ger\u00e7ek etkisi iki etmene ba\u011fl\u0131: Birincisi, \u0130ran h\u00fck\u00fcmetinin durumu k\u0131sa vadede kontrol alt\u0131na al\u0131p alamayaca\u011f\u0131 ve al\u0131rsa bunun maliyetinin ne olaca\u011f\u0131. \u0130kinci fakt\u00f6r ise d\u0131\u015f akt\u00f6rlerin protestolar hakk\u0131nda hangi pozisyonu ald\u0131\u011f\u0131. Mesela Fars K\u00f6rfezi\u2019ndeki Arap devletleri protestocular\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131ktan desteklerse \u0130ranl\u0131 liderler misilleme yapmay\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnebilir ki bu da t\u0131rmand\u0131r\u0131c\u0131 bir d\u00f6ng\u00fcy\u00fc tetikleyip b\u00f6lgenin istikrar\u0131n\u0131 tehlikeye sokabilir. Halihaz\u0131rda t\u00fcm b\u00f6lgesel akt\u00f6rler \u0130ran\u2019daki protestolara y\u00f6nelik bekle ve g\u00f6r yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 benimserken \u00e7e\u015fitli muhtemel senaryolar i\u00e7in se\u00e7eneklerini de\u011ferlendiriyor g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Referanslar<\/strong><\/span><\/h2>\n
\n[1]<\/a> Nilo Tabrizy & Haley Willis, \u201cWhat Video Footage Reveals About the Protests in Iran\u201d, The New York Times, 04\/10\/2022, https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2022\/10\/04\/world\/asia\/iran-protest-video-analysis.html<\/a>.<\/p>\n[2]<\/a> France 24, \u201c\u2018We will fight\u2019: Iran protests following death of Mahsa Amini enter fourth week\u201d, 20\/09\/2022, https:\/\/www.france24.com\/en\/middle-east\/20221009-join-us-and-stand-up-iran-protests-following-death-of-mahsa-amini-enter-fourth-week<\/a>.<\/p>\n[3]<\/a> David Gritten, \u201cIran protests: Supreme leader blames unrest on US and Israel\u201d, BBC, 04\/10\/2022, https:\/\/www.bbc.com\/news\/world-middle-east-63118637<\/a>.<\/p>\n[4]<\/a> J. E. Dyer, \u201cNeither Gaza nor Lebanon, My Life for Iran!\u201d, Commentary, 18\/09\/2009, https:\/\/www.commentary.org\/j-e-dyer\/neither-gaza-nor-lebanon-my-life-for-iran\/<\/a>.<\/p>\n[5]<\/a> Aljazeera, \u201cIran\u2019s protests: All you need to know in 600 words\u201d, 20\/11\/2019, https:\/\/www.aljazeera.com\/news\/2019\/11\/20\/irans-protests-all-you-need-to-know-in-600-words<\/a>.<\/p>\n[6]<\/a> Erwin van Veen & Hamidreza Azizi, \u201c Death of the Deal: Why Tensions Will Rise With Iran\u201d, The National Interest\u201d, 16\/07\/2022, https:\/\/nationalinterest.org\/feature\/death-deal-why-tensions-will-rise-iran-203626<\/a>.<\/p>\n[7]<\/a> Reuters, \u201cCanada to ban leaders of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards from entry\u201d, 08\/10\/2022, https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/world\/canada-ban-irans-irgc-leaders-entry-expand-sanctions-2022-10-07\/<\/a>.<\/p>\n[8]<\/a> Iran International, \u201cUS Security Advisor Denounces Iran\u2019s Brutal Repression Of People\u201d, 25\/09\/2022, https:\/\/www.iranintl.com\/en\/202209252228<\/a>.<\/p>\n[9]<\/a>Eldar Mamedov, Twitter, 06\/10\/2022, https:\/\/twitter.com\/EldarMamedov4\/status\/1578057227495145472?cxt=HHwWgICwgYCsseYrAAAA<\/a>.<\/p>\n[10]<\/a> Titr-e-Bartar, \u201cAmir-Abdollahian Warns the European Union\u201d, 05\/10\/2022, https:\/\/www.titrebartar.com\/fa\/news\/191029<\/a>.<\/p>\n[11]<\/a> Hamidreza Azizi, \u201cWhat Iran really seeks from the SCO\u201d, 27\/09\/2022, https:\/\/amwaj.media\/article\/what-iran-really-seeks-from-the-sco<\/a>.<\/p>\n[12]<\/a> Mark Katz, \u201cWhy US allies in the Middle East aren\u2019t taking sides in the Ukraine war\u201d, The Atlantic Council, 08\/09\/2022, https:\/\/www.atlanticcouncil.org\/blogs\/new-atlanticist\/why-us-allies-in-the-middle-east-arent-taking-sides-in-the-ukraine-war\/<\/a>.<\/p>\n[13]<\/a> IRNA, \u201cIran and Russia signed a cooperation agreement in the field of information security\u201d, 26\/01\/2021, https:\/\/www.irna.ir\/news\/84199866\/<\/a>.<\/p>\n[14]<\/a> RFE-RL, \u201c13 Killed In Iraqi Kurdistan As Iran Escalates Attacks Amid Unrest At Home\u201d, 29\/09\/2022, https:\/\/www.rferl.org\/a\/iran-amini-protests-crackdown-might-force\/32055924.html<\/a>.<\/p>\n[15]<\/a> Amnesty International, \u201cIran: At least 82 Baluchi protesters and bystanders killed in bloody crackdown\u201d, 06\/10\/2022, https:\/\/www.amnesty.org\/en\/latest\/news\/2022\/10\/iran-at-least-82-baluchi-protesters-and-bystanders-killed-in-bloody-crackdown\/<\/a>.<\/p>\n[16]<\/a> Bloomberg, \u201cQatar Foreign Minister on Germany Energy Talks, Iran\u201d, 21\/09\/2022, https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/videos\/2022-09-20\/qatar-foreign-minister-on-germany-energy-talks-iran-video<\/a>.<\/p>\n[17]<\/a> The Economist, \u201cIraqis are getting fed up with Iran\u201d, 25\/03\/2021, https:\/\/www.economist.com\/middle-east-and-africa\/2021\/03\/25\/iraqis-are-getting-fed-up-with-iran<\/a>.<\/p>\n[18]<\/a> VOA News, \u201cHezbollah Hammered with Criticism Amid Lebanon’s Crises\u201d, 01\/09\/2021, https:\/\/www.voanews.com\/a\/middle-east_hezbollah-hammered-criticism-amid-lebanons-crises\/6210214.html<\/a>.<\/p>\n[19]<\/a> Faramarz Davar, \u201cWhy Does Hezbollah\u2019s Nasrollah Insult Iranian Protesters?\u201d, Iran Wire, 03\/10\/2022, https:\/\/iranwire.com\/en\/politics\/108253-why-does-hezbollahs-nasrollah-insult-iranian-protesters\/<\/a>.<\/p>\n<\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"\u0130ran\u2019da s\u00fcregelen halk protestolar\u0131 2009\u2019dan bu yana \u0130slam Cumhuriyeti\u2019nin me\u015fruiyetine y\u00f6nelik en b\u00fcy\u00fck meydan okuma. Protestocular\u0131n talepleri d\u0131\u015f politika konular\u0131n\u0131 do\u011frudan kapsamasa da \u0130ran\u2019daki i\u00e7 geli\u015fmelerin uluslararas\u0131 yans\u0131malar\u0131 belirginle\u015fmeye ba\u015flad\u0131 bile. Protestolar \u0130slam Cumhuriyeti ile Bat\u0131 aras\u0131ndaki ili\u015fkilerin normalle\u015fme ihtimalini azalt\u0131rken KOEP\u2019in gelece\u011fi konusundaki \u015f\u00fcpheleri de art\u0131rd\u0131<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":269,"featured_media":35128,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","ngg_post_thumbnail":0},"categories":[361],"tags":[17618,18874,18875],"asf_pub_issue":[10319],"asf_pub_region":[10321],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/35311"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/269"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=35311"}],"version-history":[{"count":9,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/35311\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":35424,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/35311\/revisions\/35424"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/35128"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=35311"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=35311"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=35311"},{"taxonomy":"asf_pub_issue","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/asf_pub_issue?post=35311"},{"taxonomy":"asf_pub_region","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/asf_pub_region?post=35311"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}
\u0130ran’daki Halk Protestolar\u0131n\u0131n Uluslararas\u0131 \u0130li\u015fkileri<\/span><\/h2>\n(Bu metin \u0130ngilizce orijinal versiyonundan terc\u00fcme edilmi\u015ftir.)<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\u00d6zet: <\/strong>\u0130ran\u2019da s\u00fcregelen halk protestolar\u0131 2009\u2019dan bu yana \u0130slam Cumhuriyeti\u2019nin me\u015fruiyetine y\u00f6nelik en b\u00fcy\u00fck meydan okuma. Protestocular\u0131n talepleri d\u0131\u015f politika konular\u0131n\u0131 do\u011frudan kapsamasa da \u0130ran\u2019daki i\u00e7 geli\u015fmelerin uluslararas\u0131 yans\u0131malar\u0131 belirginle\u015fmeye ba\u015flad\u0131 bile. Protestolar \u0130slam Cumhuriyeti ile Bat\u0131 aras\u0131ndaki ili\u015fkilerin normalle\u015fme ihtimalini azalt\u0131rken KOEP\u2019in gelece\u011fi konusundaki \u015f\u00fcpheleri de art\u0131rd\u0131. Ayn\u0131 zamanda \u0130ranl\u0131 liderler \u201cDo\u011fu\u2019ya bakma\u201d d\u0131\u015f politika stratejilerine ba\u011fl\u0131 kalmay\u0131 giderek daha hayati g\u00f6rmeye ba\u015flad\u0131. Bunlar\u0131n yan\u0131nda \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n krizi kom\u015fu \u00fclkelere s\u00fcr\u00fckleme y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki apa\u00e7\u0131k niyeti de \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n b\u00f6lgesel politikas\u0131 ve kom\u015fular\u0131yla ili\u015fkileri i\u00e7in ciddi sonu\u00e7lar do\u011furabilir.<\/p>\nGiri\u015f<\/strong><\/span><\/h2>\n\u0130ddialara g\u00f6re \u0130slami giyinme kurallar\u0131na riayet etmedi\u011fi i\u00e7in \u0130ran<\/a>\u2019\u0131n ahlak polisi taraf\u0131ndan \u015fiddet kullan\u0131larak tutuklanan 22 ya\u015f\u0131ndaki \u0130ranl\u0131 kad\u0131n Mahsa Emini\u2019nin \u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fc \u00fclke genelinde halk\u0131n \u00f6fkesine yol a\u00e7t\u0131. Bir yandan \u0130ran h\u00fck\u00fcmetinin vaka ile ilgili sorumluluk almamas\u0131 \u00f6te yandan ise halk\u0131n k\u0131rk y\u0131ld\u0131r s\u00fcren siyasi, ekonomik ve toplumsal politikalar\u0131n ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131zl\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan duydu\u011fu yayg\u0131n memnuniyetsizlik, \u00f6fkenin h\u0131zl\u0131 bir \u015fekilde \u00fclke geneli bir protesto hareketine d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fmesine neden oldu.<\/p>\nBir haftadan k\u0131sa bir s\u00fcre i\u00e7inde \u0130ran genelinde 80 \u015fehir[1]<\/a> insanlar\u0131n sadece kad\u0131nlara y\u00f6nelik zorunlu tesett\u00fcr politikas\u0131na veya hatta h\u00fck\u00fcmetin sosyal ve k\u00fclt\u00fcrel politikalar\u0131na de\u011fil ayn\u0131 zamanda bizzat siyasal sistem ve Dini Lider Ayetullah Seyyid Ali Hamaney\u2019e kar\u015f\u0131 sloganlar att\u0131\u011f\u0131 halk protestolar\u0131na tan\u0131k oldu. Ba\u015fka bir deyi\u015fle tesett\u00fcr zorunlulu\u011funu protesto etmek halk\u0131n \u0130slam Cumhuriyeti\u2019nden duydu\u011fu birikmi\u015f kini soka\u011fa getirmesinin fitili g\u00f6revini g\u00f6rd\u00fc.<\/p>\nH\u00fck\u00fcmetin protestolar\u0131 \u015fiddetle bast\u0131rmas\u0131 \u015fimdiye kadar d\u00fczinelerce \u00f6l\u00fcme ve y\u00fczlerce yaralanmaya sebep oldu.[2]<\/a> Ancak protestolar\u0131n geni\u015f co\u011frafi kapsam\u0131, kad\u0131nlardan \u00f6\u011frencilere ve \u00e7e\u015fitli etnik gruplara uzanan \u00e7e\u015fitlili\u011fi h\u00fck\u00fcmetin durumu tamamen kontrol alt\u0131na almas\u0131n\u0131 son derece g\u00fc\u00e7le\u015ftirdi. \u0130ran\u2019daki halk protestolar\u0131nda her zaman ya\u015fand\u0131\u011f\u0131 gibi h\u00fck\u00fcmet yetkilileri yabanc\u0131 mihraklar\u0131 \u00fclkede huzursuzluk \u00e7\u0131karmakla su\u00e7lad\u0131. Hamaney\u2019in s\u00fcregelen geli\u015fmelere tepkisi bu yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131 net bir \u015fekilde yans\u0131tt\u0131. 3 Ekim\u2019de yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir konu\u015fmada \u0130ran dini lideri, protestolar\u0131n \u201cABD, \u0130srail ve takip\u00e7ileri\u201d taraf\u0131ndan tezgahland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 iddia etti.[3]<\/a><\/p>\nFakat a\u015fina oldu\u011fumuz bu komplo anlat\u0131s\u0131 \u0130ran\u2019daki protestolar\u0131n tek uluslararas\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fc de\u011fil. Bir yandan d\u0131\u015f politika konular\u0131n\u0131n protestolara yol a\u00e7\u0131p a\u00e7mad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 veya en az\u0131ndan varsa etkisinin boyutunu irdelemek hayati \u00f6nem ta\u015f\u0131yor. \u00d6te yandan protestolar\u0131n \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n Bat\u0131 ile ili\u015fkilerini, \u201cDo\u011fu\u2019ya bakma\u201d d\u0131\u015f politika stratejisini ve kom\u015fular\u0131 ve daha geni\u015f anlamda Ortado\u011fu ile olan m\u00fcnasebetlerini etkilemesi bekleniyor.<\/p>\n
D\u0131\u015f politikan\u0131n s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 rol\u00fc<\/strong><\/span><\/h2>\nProtestolar s\u0131ras\u0131nda at\u0131lan pop\u00fcler sloganlar\u0131 insanlar\u0131n taleplerini anlamak i\u00e7in bir g\u00f6sterge olarak al\u0131rsak son protestolar ge\u00e7mi\u015fteki di\u011fer kitlesel protestolardan ciddi anlamda farkl\u0131. Asl\u0131nda 1979 \u0130slam devriminden sonra ve \u00f6zellikle de ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz birka\u00e7 y\u0131lda \u0130ran sokaklar\u0131 irili ufakl\u0131 protestolara tan\u0131k oldu. Yine de 2009 Ye\u015fil Hareketi ve Kas\u0131m 2019 halk protestolar\u0131n\u0131 son k\u0131rk y\u0131l\u0131n en ciddi protesto dalgalar\u0131 olarak de\u011ferlendirebiliriz. \u0130ki olayda da h\u00fck\u00fcmetin d\u0131\u015f politikas\u0131ndan duyulan memnuniyetsizlik sloganlara net bir \u015fekilde yans\u0131m\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Ye\u015fil Hareket \u00e7o\u011fu \u0130ranl\u0131n\u0131n hileli oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc 2009 cumhurba\u015fkanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 se\u00e7imlerine bir tepki olarak ba\u015flam\u0131\u015ft\u0131 ama h\u00fck\u00fcmetin i\u00e7 ve d\u0131\u015f politikas\u0131ndan duyulan derin b\u0131kk\u0131nl\u0131\u011f\u0131 da g\u00f6steriyordu.<\/p>\n
\u201cNe Gazze\u2019ye ne L\u00fcbnan\u2019a, can\u0131m feda \u0130ran\u2019a!\u201d d\u00f6nemin \u00fcnl\u00fc sloganlar\u0131ndan biriydi[4]<\/a> ve hem hareketin milliyet\u00e7i y\u00f6n\u00fcne hem de \u00fclkenin milli menfaatlerine odaklanmak yerine d\u00fcnyadaki \u0130slamc\u0131 hareketlere deste\u011fi \u00f6nceleyen devlet ideolojisine itiraza i\u015faret ediyordu. Ye\u015fil hareket ayn\u0131 zamanda kendini demokrat ve liberal bir hareket olarak tan\u0131ml\u0131yor ve bu y\u00fczden ba\u015fta Birle\u015fik Devletler olmak \u00fczere d\u00fcnyadaki demokratik devletlerden destek bekliyordu. \u201c[ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131] Obama ya bizdensin ya onlardan\u201d slogan\u0131 bu beklentiye at\u0131f yap\u0131yordu.<\/p>\nKas\u0131m 2019 protestolar\u0131 birincil olarak ekonomik sorunlar nedeniyle ortaya \u00e7\u0131km\u0131\u015ft\u0131 ve toplumun d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck gelirli kesimleri sokaktaki protestocular\u0131n \u00e7o\u011funlu\u011funu olu\u015fturuyordu.[5]<\/a> Bir yandan yolsuzluk ve ekonominin k\u00f6t\u00fc y\u00f6netilmesi, \u00f6te yandan ABD\u2019nin fel\u00e7 edici yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 ya\u015fam ko\u015fullar\u0131n\u0131 bir\u00e7ok \u0130ranl\u0131 i\u00e7in tahamm\u00fcl edilemez hale getirmi\u015fti. Ayn\u0131 zamanda bir\u00e7ok insan \u0130ran h\u00fck\u00fcmetinin s\u0131n\u0131r \u00f6tesindeki askeri m\u00fcdahalelerinin \u00fclke i\u00e7indeki ekonomik sorunlar\u0131 daha da k\u00f6t\u00fcle\u015ftirdi\u011fine ve halk\u0131n ya\u015fam\u0131n\u0131 iyile\u015ftirmek i\u00e7in kullan\u0131lmas\u0131 gereken paralar\u0131n ba\u015fka yerlerde harcand\u0131\u011f\u0131na inan\u0131yordu. Bu kanaat bir\u00e7ok protestoda at\u0131lan \u201cSuriye\u2019yi b\u0131rak, bize bak\u201d slogan\u0131na yans\u0131m\u0131\u015ft\u0131.<\/p>\nAncak bu kez protestolarda d\u0131\u015f politikayla ili\u015fkili sloganlar neredeyse hi\u00e7 yok.<\/strong><\/span><\/h2>\nBunun yerine iki tip talep ba\u015fat \u00f6nem arz ediyor: birincisi, kad\u0131n haklar\u0131 ve sosyal \u00f6zg\u00fcrl\u00fckler gibi temel insan haklar\u0131. Protestolar\u0131n ana slogan\u0131 olan \u201cKad\u0131n, hayat, \u00f6zg\u00fcrl\u00fck\u201d bu talepleri sembolize ediyor. \u0130kincisi, \u0130slam Cumhuriyeti\u2019nin siyasal sisteminin b\u00fct\u00fcn\u00fcne muhalefet mollalara ve dini lidere kar\u015f\u0131 at\u0131lan her t\u00fcr slogana yans\u0131d\u0131. Ba\u015fka bir deyi\u015fle son 13 y\u0131l s\u00fcresince \u0130ran\u2019daki protesto hareketinin oda\u011f\u0131n\u0131n kademeli olarak siyasal reform taleplerinden ekonomik sorunlara, ard\u0131ndan da temel sosyal \u00f6zg\u00fcrl\u00fcklere ve insan haklar\u0131na kayd\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00f6ylenebilir.<\/p>\n
Ayn\u0131 zamanda protestocular belirli politika ve prosed\u00fcrlerden ziyade artan bi\u00e7imde siyasal sistemi bir b\u00fct\u00fcn olarak hedef al\u0131yor. \u0130slam Cumhuriyeti\u2019nin giderek daha fazla otoriterli\u011fe y\u00f6nelmesi bir\u00e7ok insan\u0131 herhangi bir politika de\u011fi\u015fiminin ancak siyasal sistemde k\u00f6kl\u00fc bir de\u011fi\u015fiklikle m\u00fcmk\u00fcn olabilece\u011fine inanmaya sevk etti. Ayr\u0131ca 2009\u2019dan farkl\u0131 olarak sokaktaki insanlar d\u0131\u015far\u0131dan destek istemiyor. Bu durum her t\u00fcr de\u011fi\u015fimin \u00fclke i\u00e7inden ba\u015flat\u0131lmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fi ve d\u0131\u015f deste\u011fin de\u011fi\u015fimin esas fakt\u00f6r olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki kolektif fark\u0131ndal\u0131\u011f\u0131n bir i\u015fareti olarak g\u00f6r\u00fclebilir. Bu y\u00fczden Hamaney Bat\u0131\u2019y\u0131 protestolar\u0131 destekleyerek \u0130ran\u2019\u0131 kar\u0131\u015f\u0131kl\u0131\u011fa s\u00fcr\u00fcklemekle su\u00e7larken protestocular asl\u0131nda Bat\u0131\u2019y\u0131 hesaplar\u0131na dahil etmedi.<\/p>\n
\u0130ran ile Bat\u0131: Duvardaki bir ba\u015fka tu\u011fla<\/strong><\/span><\/h2>\n\u0130ran\u2019daki son protestolar Tahran\u2019\u0131n Washington ve Avrupa ba\u015fkentleriyle ili\u015fkilerinin en hassas a\u015famalar\u0131ndan birine girdi\u011fi bir zamana denk geldi. \u0130ran ile k\u00fcresel g\u00fc\u00e7ler aras\u0131ndaki bir y\u0131ldan fazlad\u0131r s\u00fcren 2015 \u0130ran n\u00fckleer anla\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131 (resmi ad\u0131yla Kapsaml\u0131 Ortak Eylem Plan\u0131 yahut KOEP) diriltme m\u00fczakerelerinden sonra \u0130ran ile ABD aras\u0131nda hala ciddi ihtilaflar var. Nitekim protestolar ba\u015flamadan \u00e7ok \u00f6nce o ihtilaflar m\u00fczakereleri durma noktas\u0131na getirmi\u015fti.[6]<\/a> \u00dcstelik \u0130ran n\u00fckleer silah \u00fcretme kapasitesine hi\u00e7 olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 kadar yak\u0131n ve n\u00fckleer program\u0131ndaki ilerlemeyi Bat\u0131\u2019y\u0131 daha fazla tavize zorlamak i\u00e7in bir koz olarak kullanmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131yor.<\/p>\nBu \u015fartlar alt\u0131nda yayg\u0131n halk protestolar\u0131 n\u00fckleer m\u00fczakerelerin Bat\u0131l\u0131 taraflar\u0131n\u0131 zor duruma soktu. Bir yandan protestolar\u0131n otoriterlik kar\u015f\u0131t\u0131 ve liberal niteli\u011fi \u00f6te yandan ise k\u00fcresel kamuoyunun \u0130ran\u2019daki protestoculara, \u00f6zellikle de kad\u0131nlara olan benzeri g\u00f6r\u00fclmemi\u015f sempatisi Bat\u0131l\u0131 h\u00fck\u00fcmetlerin \u0130ran\u2019da ya\u015fananlar\u0131 g\u00f6rmezden gelmesini neredeyse imk\u00e2ns\u0131z hale getirdi. Bu nedenle Avrupa devletleri, Kanada ve ABD \u0130ran\u2019daki protestocular\u0131n \u015fiddetle bast\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 k\u0131nay\u0131p \u0130ran h\u00fck\u00fcmetine \u015fiddeti durdurma \u00e7a\u011fr\u0131s\u0131nda bulundu. Washington ve Ottawa, protestolar\u0131 bast\u0131rmada yer alan \u0130ranl\u0131 yetkililere yapt\u0131r\u0131m uygularken[7]<\/a> AB benzer ad\u0131mlar atmay\u0131 planl\u0131yor.<\/p>\nBu arada Bat\u0131\u2019n\u0131n protestolar\u0131n \u015fiddetle bast\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k olarak \u0130slam Cumhuriyeti ile m\u00fczakereleri durdurmaya haz\u0131r oldu\u011funa dair hi\u00e7bir emare yok. ABD h\u00fck\u00fcmeti hala diplomasiyi \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n n\u00fckleer program\u0131n\u0131 ele alman\u0131n en iyi yolu olarak g\u00f6rd\u00fcklerini a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131.[8]<\/a> Avrupa Parlamentosu da protestolar nedeniyle \u0130ran\u2019la n\u00fckleer g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeleri ask\u0131ya alma fikrini reddetti.[9]<\/a> ABD ve Avrupa, \u0130ran\u2019la diplomasiyi ask\u0131ya alman\u0131n \u0130ranl\u0131 liderlere n\u00fckleer programlar\u0131n\u0131 silahla\u015ft\u0131rma f\u0131rsat ve cesaretini verebilece\u011finden endi\u015fe ediyor.<\/p>\nBuradaki arg\u00fcmanlar\u0131, n\u00fckleer silahlar\u0131 olan otoriter bir devletin b\u00f6lgesel ve uluslararas\u0131 bar\u0131\u015f ve g\u00fcvenli\u011fe \u00e7ok daha b\u00fcy\u00fck tehdit olu\u015fturabilece\u011fi. Bu kayg\u0131lar\u0131n fark\u0131nda olan \u0130ranl\u0131 yetkililer de Bat\u0131\u2019dan herhangi bir kararl\u0131 ad\u0131m at\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6nlemek i\u00e7in Avrupa\u2019ya \u015fantaj yapmaya ba\u015flam\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. \u00d6rne\u011fin \u0130ran D\u0131\u015fi\u015fleri Bakan\u0131 H\u00fcseyin Emir-Abdullahiyan Avrupa\u2019n\u0131n herhangi bir \u201cfevri ve d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcncesizce\u201d hareketine \u201c\u0130ran\u2019\u0131n etkili ve m\u00fctekabil bir hareketle\u201d kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k vermesiyle sonu\u00e7lanaca\u011f\u0131 konusunda Avrupa\u2019y\u0131 uyard\u0131.[10]<\/a> \u00d6yle g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor ki Bakan bu uyar\u0131yla \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n n\u00fckleer program\u0131n\u0131 daha da geli\u015ftirme ihtimaline g\u00f6nderme yap\u0131yor.<\/p>\nBu itibarla \u0130ran h\u00fck\u00fcmeti uluslararas\u0131 bask\u0131y\u0131 azaltmak i\u00e7in KOEP\u2019i rehin alm\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Bu durumda KOEP\u2019nin kaderi hakk\u0131nda iki senaryo akla geliyor. Birinci senaryoda \u0130ran anla\u015fmay\u0131 canland\u0131rma iste\u011fini dile getirmeyi s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcrken e\u015f zamanl\u0131 olarak Bat\u0131l\u0131 taraflara \u015fantaj yaparak n\u00fckleer konusunu Bat\u0131\u2019n\u0131n ilgi oda\u011f\u0131nda tutmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015facak. \u0130ranl\u0131 liderler, n\u00fckleer sorunu \u015fimdi \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcl\u00fcrse Bat\u0131\u2019n\u0131n \u0130slam Cumhuriyeti\u2019ne insan haklar\u0131 sorunlar\u0131 konusunda daha rahat bask\u0131 yapabilece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyor olabilir. H\u00fck\u00fcmet bask\u0131 veya ba\u015fka ara\u00e7larla k\u0131sa vadede durumu nispeten kontrol alt\u0131nda tutmay\u0131 ba\u015far\u0131rsa bu en muhtemel senaryo olur. \u0130kinci senaryoda ise i\u00e7 kar\u0131\u015f\u0131kl\u0131k kontrolden \u00e7\u0131karsa \u0130ran m\u00fczakerelerde baz\u0131 esneklikler g\u00f6sterebilir.<\/p>\n
Bu durumdaki mant\u0131\u011fa g\u00f6re h\u00fck\u00fcmet anla\u015fmay\u0131 yeniden hayata ge\u00e7irip yapt\u0131r\u0131mlardan kurtularak kontrol\u00fc yeniden sa\u011flamak i\u00e7in yeni mali kaynaklara eri\u015fim kazan\u0131rken protesto etmelerinin esas nedeni ekonomik zorluklar olan toplumun baz\u0131 kesimlerinin sadakatini tekrar sat\u0131n alabilecek. Bu durumda rejimin bekas\u0131na y\u00f6nelik kayg\u0131lar, en az\u0131ndan h\u00fck\u00fcmet i\u00e7 cephede g\u00fcvende hissedene kadar, Bat\u0131\u2019dan gelmesi muhtemel yeni taleplerle ilgili de\u011ferlendirmelere a\u011f\u0131r basabilir. Her h\u00e2l\u00fck\u00e2rda KOEP olsun veya olmas\u0131n son protestolar, \u0130slam Cumhuriyeti ile Bat\u0131 aras\u0131ndaki u\u00e7urumu o kadar geni\u015fletti ki iki taraf aras\u0131ndaki ili\u015fkilerin \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclebilir gelecekte normalle\u015fmesi beklenemez h\u00e2le geldi.<\/p>\n
\u0130ran ile Do\u011fulu g\u00fc\u00e7ler: Otoriter empatisi<\/strong><\/span><\/h2>\nBat\u0131 ile ili\u015fkileri y\u00f6netmede ya\u015fanan yeni zorluklar\u0131n \u0130slam Cumhuriyeti\u2019ni \u201cDo\u011fuya bakma\u201d politikas\u0131n\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmeye daha kararl\u0131 hale getirmesi bekleniyor. Ger\u00e7ekte Tahran\u2019\u0131n \u201cDo\u011fu\u2019ya\u201d meyli protestolardan \u00f6ncesine dayan\u0131yor ve \u0130ran d\u0131\u015f politikas\u0131ndaki kademeli bir stratejik kaymaya i\u015faret ediyor. Protestocular Mahsa Emini\u2019nin \u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcnden sonra g\u00f6steri yaparken \u0130ran Cumhurba\u015fkan\u0131 \u0130brahim Reisi, \u015eanghay \u0130\u015fbirli\u011fi \u00d6rg\u00fct\u00fc (\u015e\u0130\u00d6) y\u0131ll\u0131k zirvesine kat\u0131lmak \u00fczere \u00d6zbekistan\u2019dayd\u0131. Zirvede \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n \u015e\u0130\u00d6 i\u00e7indeki stat\u00fcs\u00fc 17 y\u0131l sonra g\u00f6zlemci devletten tam \u00fcyeye y\u00fckseltildi. Bu geli\u015fme \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n d\u0131\u015f politikas\u0131nda artan Do\u011fu\u2019ya y\u00f6neli\u015fin en belirgin sembol\u00fc olarak de\u011ferlendirilebilir.[11]<\/a><\/p>\n\u0130ranl\u0131 liderlerin bak\u0131\u015f a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131na g\u00f6re uluslararas\u0131 sistem giderek ABD merkezli tek kutuplu yap\u0131dan Bat\u0131l\u0131 olmayan g\u00fc\u00e7lerin, \u00f6zellikle de \u00c7in ve Rusya\u2019n\u0131n daha belirleyici bir rol oynad\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ok kutuplulu\u011fa h\u0131zla evriliyor. Bu d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm \u0130ran gibi revizyonist devletlere, Bat\u0131 ile olan s\u00fcrekli kar\u015f\u0131la\u015fmalar\u0131ndan kaynaklanan sistemsel bask\u0131lardan kendilerini kurtar\u0131p y\u00fckselen g\u00fc\u00e7ler aras\u0131ndan daha g\u00fcvenilir ortaklar bulma imk\u00e2n\u0131 sunuyor. Nitekim bu durum \u0130ran gibi b\u00f6lgesel g\u00fc\u00e7lere, y\u00fckselen \u00e7ok kutuplu sistemdeki rollerini iyile\u015ftirme f\u0131rsat\u0131 sunan bir ge\u00e7i\u015f d\u00fczensizli\u011fine yol a\u00e7t\u0131. Bu perspektiften Rusya\u2019n\u0131n Ukrayna\u2019daki sava\u015f\u0131 ve ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 uluslararas\u0131 tepkiler yeni bir d\u00fczenin do\u011fu\u015funun en a\u015fik\u00e2r i\u015faretleridir.<\/p>\n
\u0130ranl\u0131 liderler, ABD\u2019nin Ortado\u011fu ve daha geni\u015f anlamda K\u00fcresel G\u00fcney\u2019deki geleneksel m\u00fcttefiklerini Moskova\u2019y\u0131 yaln\u0131zla\u015ft\u0131rma kampanyas\u0131na katamamas\u0131n\u0131[12]<\/a> ilgiyle izliyor ve Bat\u0131\u2019n\u0131n Tahran\u2019\u0131 yaln\u0131zla\u015ft\u0131rma giri\u015fimlerinin de benzer \u015fekilde ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131z olaca\u011f\u0131 sonucunu \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor. Fakat bu nihai ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131zl\u0131\u011f\u0131n elzem bir \u00f6nko\u015fulu \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n Rusya ve \u00c7in ile azami koordinasyon i\u00e7inde olmas\u0131 olacakt\u0131r. Bu durum \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n Rusya\u2019n\u0131n Ukrayna\u2019ya kar\u015f\u0131 ba\u015flatt\u0131\u011f\u0131 sald\u0131r\u0131 sava\u015f\u0131na verdi\u011fi deste\u011fi a\u00e7\u0131klayabilir.<\/p>\nAncak bu jeopolitik hesaplar\u0131n \u00f6tesinde i\u00e7 politika m\u00fclahazalar\u0131 da \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n Do\u011fu\u2019ya bakma stratejisinin \u00f6nemli bir itkisi olageldi. Nitekim \u0130slam Cumhuriyeti\u2019nin y\u00f6netiminin artan otoriterli\u011fi ile \u00c7in ve Rusya\u2019yla ba\u011flar\u0131n\u0131 geli\u015ftirme iste\u011fi aras\u0131nda do\u011frudan bir ba\u011flant\u0131 var. \u0130ran\u2019daki insan haklar\u0131n\u0131n durumunu ve siyasal ve sosyal \u00f6zg\u00fcrl\u00fcklerin olmay\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 her zaman ele\u015ftiren Avrupa\u2019n\u0131n aksine kendileri de otoriter devletler olan Rusya ve \u00c7in, \u0130slam Cumhuriyeti i\u00e7in daha rahat ortaklard\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Son y\u0131llarda \u0130ran h\u00fck\u00fcmeti \u00c7in teknolojilerini, \u0130nternet ve haberle\u015fme a\u011flar\u0131 \u00fczerinde daha s\u0131k\u0131 kontrol kurarak vatanda\u015flar\u0131n\u0131 kontrol alt\u0131nda tutmak i\u00e7in giderek daha \u00e7ok kulland\u0131. Ge\u00e7en y\u0131l \u0130ran Rusya ile de bili\u015fim g\u00fcvenli\u011fi alan\u0131nda bir i\u015f birli\u011fi anla\u015fmas\u0131 imzalad\u0131.[13]<\/a> Bu y\u00fczden \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n Rusya ve \u00c7in\u2019in uluslararas\u0131 sistemde y\u00fckselen rol\u00fcn\u00fc alg\u0131lay\u0131\u015f\u0131, Bat\u0131 ile ili\u015fkilerin umut vaat etmeyen durumu ayr\u0131ca Tahran, Moskova ve Pekin aras\u0131ndaki otoriter empatisi protestolar\u0131n ard\u0131ndan \u0130slam Cumhuriyeti\u2019ni Do\u011fu\u2019ya daha da itecek fakt\u00f6rler aras\u0131nda yer al\u0131yor.<\/p>\nBurada, mevcut ko\u015fullar alt\u0131nda Pekin\u2019in deste\u011finin \u0130slam Cumhuriyeti i\u00e7in daha hayati \u00f6nemde olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtmek gerekir \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc Moskova temelde Bat\u0131\u2019n\u0131n yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131ndan ve Rus halk\u0131n\u0131n Kremlin\u2019in Ukrayna\u2019daki sava\u015f i\u00e7in ortaya koydu\u011fu son \u201ck\u0131smi seferberlik\u201d planlar\u0131ndan duydu\u011fu memnuniyetsizlik nedeniyle kendi artan i\u00e7 sorunlar\u0131yla cebelle\u015fiyor. Yine de i\u00e7 kar\u0131\u015f\u0131kl\u0131klar geri d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fc olmayan bir noktaya ula\u015f\u0131rsa \u00c7in\u2019in \u0130slam Cumhuriyeti\u2019nin ayakta kalmas\u0131na nas\u0131l yard\u0131m edebilece\u011fini hayal etmek zor.<\/p>\n
Pekin en fazla \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n petrol\u00fcn\u00fc almaya devam edebilir veya bir ihtimal, Tahran\u2019a bor\u00e7 veya di\u011fer ekonomik yard\u0131m t\u00fcrleriyle destek sunabilir. Ancak daha \u00f6nce de\u011finildi\u011fi gibi sokaktaki insanlar\u0131n talepleri ekonomik ko\u015fullar\u0131n iyile\u015ftirilmesini \u00e7ok a\u015f\u0131yor. Bu nedenle ister KOEP\u2019in canland\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 isterse \u00c7in yard\u0131m\u0131ndan kaynaklans\u0131n hi\u00e7bir finansal m\u00fckafat \u0130ran h\u00fck\u00fcmetinin halk\u0131n huzursuzlu\u011funun k\u00f6kleriyle ba\u015f etmesine yard\u0131m edemez.<\/p>\n
\u0130ran ile Ortado\u011fu: Karma\u015fa ekseni<\/strong><\/span><\/h2>\n\u0130ran\u2019\u0131n b\u00f6lgesel politikas\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan son protestolar en az \u00fc\u00e7 y\u00f6nden \u00f6nem arz ediyor. Birincisi, \u0130ran h\u00fck\u00fcmetinin kamuoyunu i\u00e7 sorunlar\u0131n temel nedenlerinden ba\u015fka y\u00f6ne \u00e7ekmek i\u00e7in krizi d\u0131\u015fsalla\u015ft\u0131rma giri\u015fimi. \u0130kincisi, b\u00f6lge devletlerinin protestolara tepkisi. Ve sonuncu ama bir o kadar \u00f6nemlisi, protestolar\u0131n \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n b\u00f6lge genelindeki m\u00fcttefik a\u011f\u0131 yahut \u201cdireni\u015f ekseni\u201d \u00fczerindeki muhtemel etkileri.<\/p>\n
Mahsa Emini\u2019nin Sak\u0131z kentinden bir K\u00fcrt olmas\u0131, protestolar\u0131n ilk g\u00fcnlerinde baz\u0131 g\u00f6zlemcileri bunun \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n hassas etnik fay hatlar\u0131n\u0131 etkileyebilece\u011fi ve sonucunda K\u00fcrt n\u00fcfuslu b\u00f6lgelerde ayr\u0131l\u0131k\u00e7\u0131 hisleri artt\u0131rabilece\u011fi uyar\u0131s\u0131nda bulunmaya sevk etmi\u015fti. Ancak ger\u00e7ekte ya\u015fanan, etnisite unsurunun k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck bir rol oynad\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00fclke geneli bir tepki oldu. Yine de protestolar\u0131n patlak vermesinden k\u0131sa bir s\u00fcre sonra \u0130slam Devrimi Muhaf\u0131zlar\u0131 Ordusu (\u0130DMO) \u201cayr\u0131l\u0131k\u00e7\u0131 ve ter\u00f6rist gruplar\u0131n artan faaliyetleri\u201d olarak tan\u0131mlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 duruma kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k olarak Irak K\u00fcrdistan\u0131\u2019nda bulunan \u0130ranl\u0131 K\u00fcrt muhalif gruplar\u0131 hedef almaya ba\u015flad\u0131.[14]<\/a> \u00dcstelik bunlar ayr\u0131l\u0131k\u00e7\u0131 K\u00fcrt milislerin protestolarda aktif rol ald\u0131\u011f\u0131na ili\u015fkin hi\u00e7bir g\u00fcvenilir kan\u0131t olmamas\u0131na ra\u011fmen yap\u0131ld\u0131.<\/p>\nBu nedenle \u00f6yle g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor ki \u0130slam Cumhuriyeti, K\u00fcrt gruplar\u0131 k\u0131\u015fk\u0131rt\u0131p onlar\u0131 \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmaya s\u00fcr\u00fckleyerek ayr\u0131l\u0131k\u00e7\u0131l\u0131k tehdidini \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131karmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131yor. \u0130ranl\u0131 yetkililer b\u00f6ylelikle i\u00e7 atmosferi g\u00fcvenlikle\u015ftirip insanlar\u0131 protestolara kat\u0131lmaktan vazge\u00e7irmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131yor g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Belu\u00e7 etnik az\u0131nl\u0131\u011f\u0131n ya\u015fad\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00fcney \u0130ran\u2019daki Sistan ve Belucistan eyaletleri de h\u00fck\u00fcmetin benzer bir yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131na tan\u0131k oldu. Eyaletin ba\u015fkenti Zahidan\u2019da ya\u015fanan 30 Eyl\u00fcl protestolar\u0131 s\u0131ras\u0131nda en az 80 ki\u015fi \u00f6ld\u00fcr\u00fcld\u00fc.[15]<\/a> Resmi medya ve yetkililer bu kentteki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131 \u201cter\u00f6rist ve ayr\u0131l\u0131k\u00e7\u0131\u201d unsurlara atfediyor.<\/p>\nB\u00f6lge devletlerinin tepkilerine gelince, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n Arap kom\u015fular\u0131n\u0131n neredeyse hepsi protestolar konusunda bir duru\u015f sergilemekten ka\u00e7\u0131nd\u0131. \u0130ran h\u00fck\u00fcmetinin Suudi fonlu Fars\u00e7a medya organlar\u0131n\u0131 protestolar\u0131 alevlendirmekle su\u00e7lamas\u0131na ra\u011fmen \u015fimdiye kadar Riyad konu hakk\u0131nda sessiz kald\u0131. Ayn\u0131 durum di\u011fer K\u00f6rfez \u0130\u015fbirli\u011fi Konseyi (K\u0130K) \u00fcyeleri ve genel anlamda Arap devletleri i\u00e7in de ge\u00e7erli.<\/p>\n
\u015eimdiye kadar bunun tek istisnas\u0131 protestolar\u0131 \u201ci\u00e7 mesele\u201d olarak tan\u0131mlayan ama Doha\u2019n\u0131n protestolar\u0131n \u015fiddet yoluyla bast\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 oldu\u011funu da vurgulayan Katar D\u0131\u015fi\u015fleri Bakan\u0131 Muhammed bin Abdurrahman el-Sani oldu.[16]<\/a> K\u00f6rfez monar\u015filerinin temkinli duru\u015funun arkas\u0131ndaki esas neden Arap Bahar\u0131\u2019na tepkilerinde de g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc gibi her t\u00fcr taban hareketine ve pop\u00fclist rejim de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fine kategorik olarak kar\u015f\u0131 olmalar\u0131 olabilir. Nitekim \u0130ran h\u00fck\u00fcmetinin devrimle y\u0131k\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131n kendi \u00fclkelerinde de devlet istikrar\u0131n\u0131 tehdit edecek benzer hareketlere ilham kayna\u011f\u0131 olmas\u0131ndan korkuyor da olabilirler. Ancak protestolar\u0131 \u0130slam Cumhuriyeti\u2019ne y\u00f6nelik varolu\u015fsal bir tehdit olarak de\u011ferlendirmiyor ve onlar\u0131 destekleyerek Tahran\u2019\u0131 tahrik etmek istemiyor olmalar\u0131 daha muhtemel.<\/p>\nSon olarak protestolar\u0131n b\u00f6lgesel \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc y\u00f6n\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan \u0130ran\u2019da ya\u015fananlar \u201cdireni\u015f ekseni\u201d denen b\u00f6lgelerdeki kamusal me\u015fruiyet krizinin en yak\u0131n \u00f6rne\u011fi. Son \u00fc\u00e7 y\u0131lda \u0130ran ve devlet d\u0131\u015f\u0131 m\u00fcttefikleri b\u00f6lge genelinde halk\u0131n tepkisine maruz kald\u0131. Irak\u2019ta 2019\u2019dan bu yana ya\u015fanan halk protestolar\u0131n\u0131n ana s\u00fctunlar\u0131ndan biri halk\u0131n \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n ve ba\u015fta Halk Seferberlik G\u00fc\u00e7leri (HSG) olmak \u00fczere Irakl\u0131 m\u00fcttefiklerinin Irak\u2019\u0131n sosyal ve politik sorunlar\u0131nda rol\u00fc oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnmesinden kaynaklanan \u00f6fkeydi.[17]<\/a> L\u00fcbnan\u2019da Hizbullah \u00fclkenin ekonomik ve toplumsal krizlerindeki rol\u00fc nedeniyle giderek daha fazla bask\u0131 hissediyor.[18]<\/a><\/p>\n\u015eimdi ise \u0130ran\u2019daki protestolar direni\u015f ekseninin merkezindeki me\u015fruiyet krizinin alt\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7izdi. Bu anlamda \u0130slam Cumhuriyeti\u2019nin protestolar\u0131 kontrol alt\u0131na almadaki ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131 ve ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131zl\u0131\u011f\u0131 m\u00fcttefiklerinin kendi \u00fclkelerindeki halk bask\u0131s\u0131yla ba\u015f etme kabiliyetini do\u011frudan etkileyecek. Bu ihtimal Hizbullah lideri Hasan Nasrallah\u2019\u0131n neden \u0130ran\u2019daki protestolar\u0131 \u201cBat\u0131l\u0131 ve Fars K\u00f6rfezi\u2019ndeki baz\u0131 \u00fclkelerin tahriklerinin\u201d[19]<\/a> sonucu olarak tan\u0131mlad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klayabilir.<\/p>\nSonu\u00e7<\/strong><\/span><\/h2>\n\u0130ran\u2019daki halk protestolar\u0131, en az\u0131ndan 2009\u2019dan bu yana, \u0130slam Cumhuriyeti\u2019ni me\u015fruiyetine y\u00f6nelik en b\u00fcy\u00fck meydan okumayla kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya getirdi. Protestocular\u0131n talepleri do\u011frudan d\u0131\u015f politika konular\u0131n\u0131 i\u00e7ermiyor olsa da \u0130ran\u2019daki i\u00e7 geli\u015fmelerin uluslararas\u0131 etkileri belirgin hale gelmeye ba\u015flad\u0131 bile. Protestolar ve protestoculara duyulan uluslararas\u0131 sempati \u0130slam Cumhuriyeti ile Bat\u0131 aras\u0131ndaki ili\u015fkilerin normalle\u015fme ihtimalini daha da azaltt\u0131. Bu durum ayn\u0131 zamanda KOEP\u2019in gelece\u011fine de \u015f\u00fcphe d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrd\u00fc. Protestocular bast\u0131r\u0131l\u0131rken Bat\u0131l\u0131 devletlerin \u0130slam Cumhuriyeti ile diplomasiyi me\u015frula\u015ft\u0131rmas\u0131 zor.<\/p>\n
Bu durumda \u0130ranl\u0131 liderler KOEP m\u00fczakerelerini sonuca ba\u011flama motivasyonlar\u0131n\u0131 kaybedebilir ve bunun yerine k\u0131r\u0131lgan stat\u00fckoyu uluslararas\u0131 bask\u0131y\u0131 y\u00f6netmenin en iyi yolu olarak g\u00f6rebilirler. Ayn\u0131 zamanda Rusya ve \u00c7in ile daha yak\u0131n ba\u011flar geli\u015ftirme motivasyonlar\u0131 daha da artacakt\u0131r. B\u00f6lge s\u00f6z konusu oldu\u011funda \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n krizi kom\u015fu \u00fclkelere, \u00f6zellikle de Irak\u2019a s\u00fcr\u00fckleme y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki apa\u00e7\u0131k niyeti \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n kom\u015fular\u0131yla ili\u015fkileri \u00fczerinde ciddi etkiler yaratabilir. Irak h\u00fck\u00fcmeti \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n kendi egemenli\u011fini ihlal etmesini \u015fimdiden g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir \u015fekilde protesto etti. Tahran ile Ba\u011fdat aras\u0131ndaki herhangi bir s\u00fcrt\u00fc\u015fme \u0130ran ile Suudi Arabistan aras\u0131nda Irak\u2019\u0131n ev sahipli\u011fi yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeleri de olumsuz etkileyebilir.<\/p>\n
Her hal\u00fck\u00e2rda protestolar\u0131n \u0130slam Cumhuriyeti\u2019nin d\u0131\u015f ili\u015fkilerine ger\u00e7ek etkisi iki etmene ba\u011fl\u0131: Birincisi, \u0130ran h\u00fck\u00fcmetinin durumu k\u0131sa vadede kontrol alt\u0131na al\u0131p alamayaca\u011f\u0131 ve al\u0131rsa bunun maliyetinin ne olaca\u011f\u0131. \u0130kinci fakt\u00f6r ise d\u0131\u015f akt\u00f6rlerin protestolar hakk\u0131nda hangi pozisyonu ald\u0131\u011f\u0131. Mesela Fars K\u00f6rfezi\u2019ndeki Arap devletleri protestocular\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131ktan desteklerse \u0130ranl\u0131 liderler misilleme yapmay\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnebilir ki bu da t\u0131rmand\u0131r\u0131c\u0131 bir d\u00f6ng\u00fcy\u00fc tetikleyip b\u00f6lgenin istikrar\u0131n\u0131 tehlikeye sokabilir. Halihaz\u0131rda t\u00fcm b\u00f6lgesel akt\u00f6rler \u0130ran\u2019daki protestolara y\u00f6nelik bekle ve g\u00f6r yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 benimserken \u00e7e\u015fitli muhtemel senaryolar i\u00e7in se\u00e7eneklerini de\u011ferlendiriyor g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Referanslar<\/strong><\/span><\/h2>\n
\n[1]<\/a> Nilo Tabrizy & Haley Willis, \u201cWhat Video Footage Reveals About the Protests in Iran\u201d, The New York Times, 04\/10\/2022, https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2022\/10\/04\/world\/asia\/iran-protest-video-analysis.html<\/a>.<\/p>\n[2]<\/a> France 24, \u201c\u2018We will fight\u2019: Iran protests following death of Mahsa Amini enter fourth week\u201d, 20\/09\/2022, https:\/\/www.france24.com\/en\/middle-east\/20221009-join-us-and-stand-up-iran-protests-following-death-of-mahsa-amini-enter-fourth-week<\/a>.<\/p>\n[3]<\/a> David Gritten, \u201cIran protests: Supreme leader blames unrest on US and Israel\u201d, BBC, 04\/10\/2022, https:\/\/www.bbc.com\/news\/world-middle-east-63118637<\/a>.<\/p>\n[4]<\/a> J. E. Dyer, \u201cNeither Gaza nor Lebanon, My Life for Iran!\u201d, Commentary, 18\/09\/2009, https:\/\/www.commentary.org\/j-e-dyer\/neither-gaza-nor-lebanon-my-life-for-iran\/<\/a>.<\/p>\n[5]<\/a> Aljazeera, \u201cIran\u2019s protests: All you need to know in 600 words\u201d, 20\/11\/2019, https:\/\/www.aljazeera.com\/news\/2019\/11\/20\/irans-protests-all-you-need-to-know-in-600-words<\/a>.<\/p>\n[6]<\/a> Erwin van Veen & Hamidreza Azizi, \u201c Death of the Deal: Why Tensions Will Rise With Iran\u201d, The National Interest\u201d, 16\/07\/2022, https:\/\/nationalinterest.org\/feature\/death-deal-why-tensions-will-rise-iran-203626<\/a>.<\/p>\n[7]<\/a> Reuters, \u201cCanada to ban leaders of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards from entry\u201d, 08\/10\/2022, https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/world\/canada-ban-irans-irgc-leaders-entry-expand-sanctions-2022-10-07\/<\/a>.<\/p>\n[8]<\/a> Iran International, \u201cUS Security Advisor Denounces Iran\u2019s Brutal Repression Of People\u201d, 25\/09\/2022, https:\/\/www.iranintl.com\/en\/202209252228<\/a>.<\/p>\n[9]<\/a>Eldar Mamedov, Twitter, 06\/10\/2022, https:\/\/twitter.com\/EldarMamedov4\/status\/1578057227495145472?cxt=HHwWgICwgYCsseYrAAAA<\/a>.<\/p>\n[10]<\/a> Titr-e-Bartar, \u201cAmir-Abdollahian Warns the European Union\u201d, 05\/10\/2022, https:\/\/www.titrebartar.com\/fa\/news\/191029<\/a>.<\/p>\n[11]<\/a> Hamidreza Azizi, \u201cWhat Iran really seeks from the SCO\u201d, 27\/09\/2022, https:\/\/amwaj.media\/article\/what-iran-really-seeks-from-the-sco<\/a>.<\/p>\n[12]<\/a> Mark Katz, \u201cWhy US allies in the Middle East aren\u2019t taking sides in the Ukraine war\u201d, The Atlantic Council, 08\/09\/2022, https:\/\/www.atlanticcouncil.org\/blogs\/new-atlanticist\/why-us-allies-in-the-middle-east-arent-taking-sides-in-the-ukraine-war\/<\/a>.<\/p>\n[13]<\/a> IRNA, \u201cIran and Russia signed a cooperation agreement in the field of information security\u201d, 26\/01\/2021, https:\/\/www.irna.ir\/news\/84199866\/<\/a>.<\/p>\n[14]<\/a> RFE-RL, \u201c13 Killed In Iraqi Kurdistan As Iran Escalates Attacks Amid Unrest At Home\u201d, 29\/09\/2022, https:\/\/www.rferl.org\/a\/iran-amini-protests-crackdown-might-force\/32055924.html<\/a>.<\/p>\n[15]<\/a> Amnesty International, \u201cIran: At least 82 Baluchi protesters and bystanders killed in bloody crackdown\u201d, 06\/10\/2022, https:\/\/www.amnesty.org\/en\/latest\/news\/2022\/10\/iran-at-least-82-baluchi-protesters-and-bystanders-killed-in-bloody-crackdown\/<\/a>.<\/p>\n[16]<\/a> Bloomberg, \u201cQatar Foreign Minister on Germany Energy Talks, Iran\u201d, 21\/09\/2022, https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/videos\/2022-09-20\/qatar-foreign-minister-on-germany-energy-talks-iran-video<\/a>.<\/p>\n[17]<\/a> The Economist, \u201cIraqis are getting fed up with Iran\u201d, 25\/03\/2021, https:\/\/www.economist.com\/middle-east-and-africa\/2021\/03\/25\/iraqis-are-getting-fed-up-with-iran<\/a>.<\/p>\n[18]<\/a> VOA News, \u201cHezbollah Hammered with Criticism Amid Lebanon’s Crises\u201d, 01\/09\/2021, https:\/\/www.voanews.com\/a\/middle-east_hezbollah-hammered-criticism-amid-lebanons-crises\/6210214.html<\/a>.<\/p>\n[19]<\/a> Faramarz Davar, \u201cWhy Does Hezbollah\u2019s Nasrollah Insult Iranian Protesters?\u201d, Iran Wire, 03\/10\/2022, https:\/\/iranwire.com\/en\/politics\/108253-why-does-hezbollahs-nasrollah-insult-iranian-protesters\/<\/a>.<\/p>\n<\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"\u0130ran\u2019da s\u00fcregelen halk protestolar\u0131 2009\u2019dan bu yana \u0130slam Cumhuriyeti\u2019nin me\u015fruiyetine y\u00f6nelik en b\u00fcy\u00fck meydan okuma. Protestocular\u0131n talepleri d\u0131\u015f politika konular\u0131n\u0131 do\u011frudan kapsamasa da \u0130ran\u2019daki i\u00e7 geli\u015fmelerin uluslararas\u0131 yans\u0131malar\u0131 belirginle\u015fmeye ba\u015flad\u0131 bile. Protestolar \u0130slam Cumhuriyeti ile Bat\u0131 aras\u0131ndaki ili\u015fkilerin normalle\u015fme ihtimalini azalt\u0131rken KOEP\u2019in gelece\u011fi konusundaki \u015f\u00fcpheleri de art\u0131rd\u0131<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":269,"featured_media":35128,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","ngg_post_thumbnail":0},"categories":[361],"tags":[17618,18874,18875],"asf_pub_issue":[10319],"asf_pub_region":[10321],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/35311"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/269"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=35311"}],"version-history":[{"count":9,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/35311\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":35424,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/35311\/revisions\/35424"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/35128"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=35311"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=35311"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=35311"},{"taxonomy":"asf_pub_issue","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/asf_pub_issue?post=35311"},{"taxonomy":"asf_pub_region","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/asf_pub_region?post=35311"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}
\u00d6zet: <\/strong>\u0130ran\u2019da s\u00fcregelen halk protestolar\u0131 2009\u2019dan bu yana \u0130slam Cumhuriyeti\u2019nin me\u015fruiyetine y\u00f6nelik en b\u00fcy\u00fck meydan okuma. Protestocular\u0131n talepleri d\u0131\u015f politika konular\u0131n\u0131 do\u011frudan kapsamasa da \u0130ran\u2019daki i\u00e7 geli\u015fmelerin uluslararas\u0131 yans\u0131malar\u0131 belirginle\u015fmeye ba\u015flad\u0131 bile. Protestolar \u0130slam Cumhuriyeti ile Bat\u0131 aras\u0131ndaki ili\u015fkilerin normalle\u015fme ihtimalini azalt\u0131rken KOEP\u2019in gelece\u011fi konusundaki \u015f\u00fcpheleri de art\u0131rd\u0131. Ayn\u0131 zamanda \u0130ranl\u0131 liderler \u201cDo\u011fu\u2019ya bakma\u201d d\u0131\u015f politika stratejilerine ba\u011fl\u0131 kalmay\u0131 giderek daha hayati g\u00f6rmeye ba\u015flad\u0131. Bunlar\u0131n yan\u0131nda \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n krizi kom\u015fu \u00fclkelere s\u00fcr\u00fckleme y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki apa\u00e7\u0131k niyeti de \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n b\u00f6lgesel politikas\u0131 ve kom\u015fular\u0131yla ili\u015fkileri i\u00e7in ciddi sonu\u00e7lar do\u011furabilir.<\/p>\n \u0130ddialara g\u00f6re \u0130slami giyinme kurallar\u0131na riayet etmedi\u011fi i\u00e7in \u0130ran<\/a>\u2019\u0131n ahlak polisi taraf\u0131ndan \u015fiddet kullan\u0131larak tutuklanan 22 ya\u015f\u0131ndaki \u0130ranl\u0131 kad\u0131n Mahsa Emini\u2019nin \u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fc \u00fclke genelinde halk\u0131n \u00f6fkesine yol a\u00e7t\u0131. Bir yandan \u0130ran h\u00fck\u00fcmetinin vaka ile ilgili sorumluluk almamas\u0131 \u00f6te yandan ise halk\u0131n k\u0131rk y\u0131ld\u0131r s\u00fcren siyasi, ekonomik ve toplumsal politikalar\u0131n ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131zl\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan duydu\u011fu yayg\u0131n memnuniyetsizlik, \u00f6fkenin h\u0131zl\u0131 bir \u015fekilde \u00fclke geneli bir protesto hareketine d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fmesine neden oldu.<\/p>\n Bir haftadan k\u0131sa bir s\u00fcre i\u00e7inde \u0130ran genelinde 80 \u015fehir[1]<\/a> insanlar\u0131n sadece kad\u0131nlara y\u00f6nelik zorunlu tesett\u00fcr politikas\u0131na veya hatta h\u00fck\u00fcmetin sosyal ve k\u00fclt\u00fcrel politikalar\u0131na de\u011fil ayn\u0131 zamanda bizzat siyasal sistem ve Dini Lider Ayetullah Seyyid Ali Hamaney\u2019e kar\u015f\u0131 sloganlar att\u0131\u011f\u0131 halk protestolar\u0131na tan\u0131k oldu. Ba\u015fka bir deyi\u015fle tesett\u00fcr zorunlulu\u011funu protesto etmek halk\u0131n \u0130slam Cumhuriyeti\u2019nden duydu\u011fu birikmi\u015f kini soka\u011fa getirmesinin fitili g\u00f6revini g\u00f6rd\u00fc.<\/p>\n H\u00fck\u00fcmetin protestolar\u0131 \u015fiddetle bast\u0131rmas\u0131 \u015fimdiye kadar d\u00fczinelerce \u00f6l\u00fcme ve y\u00fczlerce yaralanmaya sebep oldu.[2]<\/a> Ancak protestolar\u0131n geni\u015f co\u011frafi kapsam\u0131, kad\u0131nlardan \u00f6\u011frencilere ve \u00e7e\u015fitli etnik gruplara uzanan \u00e7e\u015fitlili\u011fi h\u00fck\u00fcmetin durumu tamamen kontrol alt\u0131na almas\u0131n\u0131 son derece g\u00fc\u00e7le\u015ftirdi. \u0130ran\u2019daki halk protestolar\u0131nda her zaman ya\u015fand\u0131\u011f\u0131 gibi h\u00fck\u00fcmet yetkilileri yabanc\u0131 mihraklar\u0131 \u00fclkede huzursuzluk \u00e7\u0131karmakla su\u00e7lad\u0131. Hamaney\u2019in s\u00fcregelen geli\u015fmelere tepkisi bu yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131 net bir \u015fekilde yans\u0131tt\u0131. 3 Ekim\u2019de yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir konu\u015fmada \u0130ran dini lideri, protestolar\u0131n \u201cABD, \u0130srail ve takip\u00e7ileri\u201d taraf\u0131ndan tezgahland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 iddia etti.[3]<\/a><\/p>\n Fakat a\u015fina oldu\u011fumuz bu komplo anlat\u0131s\u0131 \u0130ran\u2019daki protestolar\u0131n tek uluslararas\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fc de\u011fil. Bir yandan d\u0131\u015f politika konular\u0131n\u0131n protestolara yol a\u00e7\u0131p a\u00e7mad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 veya en az\u0131ndan varsa etkisinin boyutunu irdelemek hayati \u00f6nem ta\u015f\u0131yor. \u00d6te yandan protestolar\u0131n \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n Bat\u0131 ile ili\u015fkilerini, \u201cDo\u011fu\u2019ya bakma\u201d d\u0131\u015f politika stratejisini ve kom\u015fular\u0131 ve daha geni\u015f anlamda Ortado\u011fu ile olan m\u00fcnasebetlerini etkilemesi bekleniyor.<\/p>\n Protestolar s\u0131ras\u0131nda at\u0131lan pop\u00fcler sloganlar\u0131 insanlar\u0131n taleplerini anlamak i\u00e7in bir g\u00f6sterge olarak al\u0131rsak son protestolar ge\u00e7mi\u015fteki di\u011fer kitlesel protestolardan ciddi anlamda farkl\u0131. Asl\u0131nda 1979 \u0130slam devriminden sonra ve \u00f6zellikle de ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz birka\u00e7 y\u0131lda \u0130ran sokaklar\u0131 irili ufakl\u0131 protestolara tan\u0131k oldu. Yine de 2009 Ye\u015fil Hareketi ve Kas\u0131m 2019 halk protestolar\u0131n\u0131 son k\u0131rk y\u0131l\u0131n en ciddi protesto dalgalar\u0131 olarak de\u011ferlendirebiliriz. \u0130ki olayda da h\u00fck\u00fcmetin d\u0131\u015f politikas\u0131ndan duyulan memnuniyetsizlik sloganlara net bir \u015fekilde yans\u0131m\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Ye\u015fil Hareket \u00e7o\u011fu \u0130ranl\u0131n\u0131n hileli oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc 2009 cumhurba\u015fkanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 se\u00e7imlerine bir tepki olarak ba\u015flam\u0131\u015ft\u0131 ama h\u00fck\u00fcmetin i\u00e7 ve d\u0131\u015f politikas\u0131ndan duyulan derin b\u0131kk\u0131nl\u0131\u011f\u0131 da g\u00f6steriyordu.<\/p>\n \u201cNe Gazze\u2019ye ne L\u00fcbnan\u2019a, can\u0131m feda \u0130ran\u2019a!\u201d d\u00f6nemin \u00fcnl\u00fc sloganlar\u0131ndan biriydi[4]<\/a> ve hem hareketin milliyet\u00e7i y\u00f6n\u00fcne hem de \u00fclkenin milli menfaatlerine odaklanmak yerine d\u00fcnyadaki \u0130slamc\u0131 hareketlere deste\u011fi \u00f6nceleyen devlet ideolojisine itiraza i\u015faret ediyordu. Ye\u015fil hareket ayn\u0131 zamanda kendini demokrat ve liberal bir hareket olarak tan\u0131ml\u0131yor ve bu y\u00fczden ba\u015fta Birle\u015fik Devletler olmak \u00fczere d\u00fcnyadaki demokratik devletlerden destek bekliyordu. \u201c[ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131] Obama ya bizdensin ya onlardan\u201d slogan\u0131 bu beklentiye at\u0131f yap\u0131yordu.<\/p>\n Kas\u0131m 2019 protestolar\u0131 birincil olarak ekonomik sorunlar nedeniyle ortaya \u00e7\u0131km\u0131\u015ft\u0131 ve toplumun d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck gelirli kesimleri sokaktaki protestocular\u0131n \u00e7o\u011funlu\u011funu olu\u015fturuyordu.[5]<\/a> Bir yandan yolsuzluk ve ekonominin k\u00f6t\u00fc y\u00f6netilmesi, \u00f6te yandan ABD\u2019nin fel\u00e7 edici yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 ya\u015fam ko\u015fullar\u0131n\u0131 bir\u00e7ok \u0130ranl\u0131 i\u00e7in tahamm\u00fcl edilemez hale getirmi\u015fti. Ayn\u0131 zamanda bir\u00e7ok insan \u0130ran h\u00fck\u00fcmetinin s\u0131n\u0131r \u00f6tesindeki askeri m\u00fcdahalelerinin \u00fclke i\u00e7indeki ekonomik sorunlar\u0131 daha da k\u00f6t\u00fcle\u015ftirdi\u011fine ve halk\u0131n ya\u015fam\u0131n\u0131 iyile\u015ftirmek i\u00e7in kullan\u0131lmas\u0131 gereken paralar\u0131n ba\u015fka yerlerde harcand\u0131\u011f\u0131na inan\u0131yordu. Bu kanaat bir\u00e7ok protestoda at\u0131lan \u201cSuriye\u2019yi b\u0131rak, bize bak\u201d slogan\u0131na yans\u0131m\u0131\u015ft\u0131.<\/p>\n Bunun yerine iki tip talep ba\u015fat \u00f6nem arz ediyor: birincisi, kad\u0131n haklar\u0131 ve sosyal \u00f6zg\u00fcrl\u00fckler gibi temel insan haklar\u0131. Protestolar\u0131n ana slogan\u0131 olan \u201cKad\u0131n, hayat, \u00f6zg\u00fcrl\u00fck\u201d bu talepleri sembolize ediyor. \u0130kincisi, \u0130slam Cumhuriyeti\u2019nin siyasal sisteminin b\u00fct\u00fcn\u00fcne muhalefet mollalara ve dini lidere kar\u015f\u0131 at\u0131lan her t\u00fcr slogana yans\u0131d\u0131. Ba\u015fka bir deyi\u015fle son 13 y\u0131l s\u00fcresince \u0130ran\u2019daki protesto hareketinin oda\u011f\u0131n\u0131n kademeli olarak siyasal reform taleplerinden ekonomik sorunlara, ard\u0131ndan da temel sosyal \u00f6zg\u00fcrl\u00fcklere ve insan haklar\u0131na kayd\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00f6ylenebilir.<\/p>\n Ayn\u0131 zamanda protestocular belirli politika ve prosed\u00fcrlerden ziyade artan bi\u00e7imde siyasal sistemi bir b\u00fct\u00fcn olarak hedef al\u0131yor. \u0130slam Cumhuriyeti\u2019nin giderek daha fazla otoriterli\u011fe y\u00f6nelmesi bir\u00e7ok insan\u0131 herhangi bir politika de\u011fi\u015fiminin ancak siyasal sistemde k\u00f6kl\u00fc bir de\u011fi\u015fiklikle m\u00fcmk\u00fcn olabilece\u011fine inanmaya sevk etti. Ayr\u0131ca 2009\u2019dan farkl\u0131 olarak sokaktaki insanlar d\u0131\u015far\u0131dan destek istemiyor. Bu durum her t\u00fcr de\u011fi\u015fimin \u00fclke i\u00e7inden ba\u015flat\u0131lmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fi ve d\u0131\u015f deste\u011fin de\u011fi\u015fimin esas fakt\u00f6r olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki kolektif fark\u0131ndal\u0131\u011f\u0131n bir i\u015fareti olarak g\u00f6r\u00fclebilir. Bu y\u00fczden Hamaney Bat\u0131\u2019y\u0131 protestolar\u0131 destekleyerek \u0130ran\u2019\u0131 kar\u0131\u015f\u0131kl\u0131\u011fa s\u00fcr\u00fcklemekle su\u00e7larken protestocular asl\u0131nda Bat\u0131\u2019y\u0131 hesaplar\u0131na dahil etmedi.<\/p>\n \u0130ran\u2019daki son protestolar Tahran\u2019\u0131n Washington ve Avrupa ba\u015fkentleriyle ili\u015fkilerinin en hassas a\u015famalar\u0131ndan birine girdi\u011fi bir zamana denk geldi. \u0130ran ile k\u00fcresel g\u00fc\u00e7ler aras\u0131ndaki bir y\u0131ldan fazlad\u0131r s\u00fcren 2015 \u0130ran n\u00fckleer anla\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131 (resmi ad\u0131yla Kapsaml\u0131 Ortak Eylem Plan\u0131 yahut KOEP) diriltme m\u00fczakerelerinden sonra \u0130ran ile ABD aras\u0131nda hala ciddi ihtilaflar var. Nitekim protestolar ba\u015flamadan \u00e7ok \u00f6nce o ihtilaflar m\u00fczakereleri durma noktas\u0131na getirmi\u015fti.[6]<\/a> \u00dcstelik \u0130ran n\u00fckleer silah \u00fcretme kapasitesine hi\u00e7 olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 kadar yak\u0131n ve n\u00fckleer program\u0131ndaki ilerlemeyi Bat\u0131\u2019y\u0131 daha fazla tavize zorlamak i\u00e7in bir koz olarak kullanmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131yor.<\/p>\n Bu \u015fartlar alt\u0131nda yayg\u0131n halk protestolar\u0131 n\u00fckleer m\u00fczakerelerin Bat\u0131l\u0131 taraflar\u0131n\u0131 zor duruma soktu. Bir yandan protestolar\u0131n otoriterlik kar\u015f\u0131t\u0131 ve liberal niteli\u011fi \u00f6te yandan ise k\u00fcresel kamuoyunun \u0130ran\u2019daki protestoculara, \u00f6zellikle de kad\u0131nlara olan benzeri g\u00f6r\u00fclmemi\u015f sempatisi Bat\u0131l\u0131 h\u00fck\u00fcmetlerin \u0130ran\u2019da ya\u015fananlar\u0131 g\u00f6rmezden gelmesini neredeyse imk\u00e2ns\u0131z hale getirdi. Bu nedenle Avrupa devletleri, Kanada ve ABD \u0130ran\u2019daki protestocular\u0131n \u015fiddetle bast\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 k\u0131nay\u0131p \u0130ran h\u00fck\u00fcmetine \u015fiddeti durdurma \u00e7a\u011fr\u0131s\u0131nda bulundu. Washington ve Ottawa, protestolar\u0131 bast\u0131rmada yer alan \u0130ranl\u0131 yetkililere yapt\u0131r\u0131m uygularken[7]<\/a> AB benzer ad\u0131mlar atmay\u0131 planl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n Bu arada Bat\u0131\u2019n\u0131n protestolar\u0131n \u015fiddetle bast\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k olarak \u0130slam Cumhuriyeti ile m\u00fczakereleri durdurmaya haz\u0131r oldu\u011funa dair hi\u00e7bir emare yok. ABD h\u00fck\u00fcmeti hala diplomasiyi \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n n\u00fckleer program\u0131n\u0131 ele alman\u0131n en iyi yolu olarak g\u00f6rd\u00fcklerini a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131.[8]<\/a> Avrupa Parlamentosu da protestolar nedeniyle \u0130ran\u2019la n\u00fckleer g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeleri ask\u0131ya alma fikrini reddetti.[9]<\/a> ABD ve Avrupa, \u0130ran\u2019la diplomasiyi ask\u0131ya alman\u0131n \u0130ranl\u0131 liderlere n\u00fckleer programlar\u0131n\u0131 silahla\u015ft\u0131rma f\u0131rsat ve cesaretini verebilece\u011finden endi\u015fe ediyor.<\/p>\n Buradaki arg\u00fcmanlar\u0131, n\u00fckleer silahlar\u0131 olan otoriter bir devletin b\u00f6lgesel ve uluslararas\u0131 bar\u0131\u015f ve g\u00fcvenli\u011fe \u00e7ok daha b\u00fcy\u00fck tehdit olu\u015fturabilece\u011fi. Bu kayg\u0131lar\u0131n fark\u0131nda olan \u0130ranl\u0131 yetkililer de Bat\u0131\u2019dan herhangi bir kararl\u0131 ad\u0131m at\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6nlemek i\u00e7in Avrupa\u2019ya \u015fantaj yapmaya ba\u015flam\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. \u00d6rne\u011fin \u0130ran D\u0131\u015fi\u015fleri Bakan\u0131 H\u00fcseyin Emir-Abdullahiyan Avrupa\u2019n\u0131n herhangi bir \u201cfevri ve d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcncesizce\u201d hareketine \u201c\u0130ran\u2019\u0131n etkili ve m\u00fctekabil bir hareketle\u201d kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k vermesiyle sonu\u00e7lanaca\u011f\u0131 konusunda Avrupa\u2019y\u0131 uyard\u0131.[10]<\/a> \u00d6yle g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor ki Bakan bu uyar\u0131yla \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n n\u00fckleer program\u0131n\u0131 daha da geli\u015ftirme ihtimaline g\u00f6nderme yap\u0131yor.<\/p>\n Bu itibarla \u0130ran h\u00fck\u00fcmeti uluslararas\u0131 bask\u0131y\u0131 azaltmak i\u00e7in KOEP\u2019i rehin alm\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Bu durumda KOEP\u2019nin kaderi hakk\u0131nda iki senaryo akla geliyor. Birinci senaryoda \u0130ran anla\u015fmay\u0131 canland\u0131rma iste\u011fini dile getirmeyi s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcrken e\u015f zamanl\u0131 olarak Bat\u0131l\u0131 taraflara \u015fantaj yaparak n\u00fckleer konusunu Bat\u0131\u2019n\u0131n ilgi oda\u011f\u0131nda tutmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015facak. \u0130ranl\u0131 liderler, n\u00fckleer sorunu \u015fimdi \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcl\u00fcrse Bat\u0131\u2019n\u0131n \u0130slam Cumhuriyeti\u2019ne insan haklar\u0131 sorunlar\u0131 konusunda daha rahat bask\u0131 yapabilece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyor olabilir. H\u00fck\u00fcmet bask\u0131 veya ba\u015fka ara\u00e7larla k\u0131sa vadede durumu nispeten kontrol alt\u0131nda tutmay\u0131 ba\u015far\u0131rsa bu en muhtemel senaryo olur. \u0130kinci senaryoda ise i\u00e7 kar\u0131\u015f\u0131kl\u0131k kontrolden \u00e7\u0131karsa \u0130ran m\u00fczakerelerde baz\u0131 esneklikler g\u00f6sterebilir.<\/p>\n Bu durumdaki mant\u0131\u011fa g\u00f6re h\u00fck\u00fcmet anla\u015fmay\u0131 yeniden hayata ge\u00e7irip yapt\u0131r\u0131mlardan kurtularak kontrol\u00fc yeniden sa\u011flamak i\u00e7in yeni mali kaynaklara eri\u015fim kazan\u0131rken protesto etmelerinin esas nedeni ekonomik zorluklar olan toplumun baz\u0131 kesimlerinin sadakatini tekrar sat\u0131n alabilecek. Bu durumda rejimin bekas\u0131na y\u00f6nelik kayg\u0131lar, en az\u0131ndan h\u00fck\u00fcmet i\u00e7 cephede g\u00fcvende hissedene kadar, Bat\u0131\u2019dan gelmesi muhtemel yeni taleplerle ilgili de\u011ferlendirmelere a\u011f\u0131r basabilir. Her h\u00e2l\u00fck\u00e2rda KOEP olsun veya olmas\u0131n son protestolar, \u0130slam Cumhuriyeti ile Bat\u0131 aras\u0131ndaki u\u00e7urumu o kadar geni\u015fletti ki iki taraf aras\u0131ndaki ili\u015fkilerin \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclebilir gelecekte normalle\u015fmesi beklenemez h\u00e2le geldi.<\/p>\n Bat\u0131 ile ili\u015fkileri y\u00f6netmede ya\u015fanan yeni zorluklar\u0131n \u0130slam Cumhuriyeti\u2019ni \u201cDo\u011fuya bakma\u201d politikas\u0131n\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmeye daha kararl\u0131 hale getirmesi bekleniyor. Ger\u00e7ekte Tahran\u2019\u0131n \u201cDo\u011fu\u2019ya\u201d meyli protestolardan \u00f6ncesine dayan\u0131yor ve \u0130ran d\u0131\u015f politikas\u0131ndaki kademeli bir stratejik kaymaya i\u015faret ediyor. Protestocular Mahsa Emini\u2019nin \u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcnden sonra g\u00f6steri yaparken \u0130ran Cumhurba\u015fkan\u0131 \u0130brahim Reisi, \u015eanghay \u0130\u015fbirli\u011fi \u00d6rg\u00fct\u00fc (\u015e\u0130\u00d6) y\u0131ll\u0131k zirvesine kat\u0131lmak \u00fczere \u00d6zbekistan\u2019dayd\u0131. Zirvede \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n \u015e\u0130\u00d6 i\u00e7indeki stat\u00fcs\u00fc 17 y\u0131l sonra g\u00f6zlemci devletten tam \u00fcyeye y\u00fckseltildi. Bu geli\u015fme \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n d\u0131\u015f politikas\u0131nda artan Do\u011fu\u2019ya y\u00f6neli\u015fin en belirgin sembol\u00fc olarak de\u011ferlendirilebilir.[11]<\/a><\/p>\n \u0130ranl\u0131 liderlerin bak\u0131\u015f a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131na g\u00f6re uluslararas\u0131 sistem giderek ABD merkezli tek kutuplu yap\u0131dan Bat\u0131l\u0131 olmayan g\u00fc\u00e7lerin, \u00f6zellikle de \u00c7in ve Rusya\u2019n\u0131n daha belirleyici bir rol oynad\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ok kutuplulu\u011fa h\u0131zla evriliyor. Bu d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm \u0130ran gibi revizyonist devletlere, Bat\u0131 ile olan s\u00fcrekli kar\u015f\u0131la\u015fmalar\u0131ndan kaynaklanan sistemsel bask\u0131lardan kendilerini kurtar\u0131p y\u00fckselen g\u00fc\u00e7ler aras\u0131ndan daha g\u00fcvenilir ortaklar bulma imk\u00e2n\u0131 sunuyor. Nitekim bu durum \u0130ran gibi b\u00f6lgesel g\u00fc\u00e7lere, y\u00fckselen \u00e7ok kutuplu sistemdeki rollerini iyile\u015ftirme f\u0131rsat\u0131 sunan bir ge\u00e7i\u015f d\u00fczensizli\u011fine yol a\u00e7t\u0131. Bu perspektiften Rusya\u2019n\u0131n Ukrayna\u2019daki sava\u015f\u0131 ve ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 uluslararas\u0131 tepkiler yeni bir d\u00fczenin do\u011fu\u015funun en a\u015fik\u00e2r i\u015faretleridir.<\/p>\n \u0130ranl\u0131 liderler, ABD\u2019nin Ortado\u011fu ve daha geni\u015f anlamda K\u00fcresel G\u00fcney\u2019deki geleneksel m\u00fcttefiklerini Moskova\u2019y\u0131 yaln\u0131zla\u015ft\u0131rma kampanyas\u0131na katamamas\u0131n\u0131[12]<\/a> ilgiyle izliyor ve Bat\u0131\u2019n\u0131n Tahran\u2019\u0131 yaln\u0131zla\u015ft\u0131rma giri\u015fimlerinin de benzer \u015fekilde ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131z olaca\u011f\u0131 sonucunu \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor. Fakat bu nihai ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131zl\u0131\u011f\u0131n elzem bir \u00f6nko\u015fulu \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n Rusya ve \u00c7in ile azami koordinasyon i\u00e7inde olmas\u0131 olacakt\u0131r. Bu durum \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n Rusya\u2019n\u0131n Ukrayna\u2019ya kar\u015f\u0131 ba\u015flatt\u0131\u011f\u0131 sald\u0131r\u0131 sava\u015f\u0131na verdi\u011fi deste\u011fi a\u00e7\u0131klayabilir.<\/p>\n Ancak bu jeopolitik hesaplar\u0131n \u00f6tesinde i\u00e7 politika m\u00fclahazalar\u0131 da \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n Do\u011fu\u2019ya bakma stratejisinin \u00f6nemli bir itkisi olageldi. Nitekim \u0130slam Cumhuriyeti\u2019nin y\u00f6netiminin artan otoriterli\u011fi ile \u00c7in ve Rusya\u2019yla ba\u011flar\u0131n\u0131 geli\u015ftirme iste\u011fi aras\u0131nda do\u011frudan bir ba\u011flant\u0131 var. \u0130ran\u2019daki insan haklar\u0131n\u0131n durumunu ve siyasal ve sosyal \u00f6zg\u00fcrl\u00fcklerin olmay\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 her zaman ele\u015ftiren Avrupa\u2019n\u0131n aksine kendileri de otoriter devletler olan Rusya ve \u00c7in, \u0130slam Cumhuriyeti i\u00e7in daha rahat ortaklard\u0131r.<\/p>\n Son y\u0131llarda \u0130ran h\u00fck\u00fcmeti \u00c7in teknolojilerini, \u0130nternet ve haberle\u015fme a\u011flar\u0131 \u00fczerinde daha s\u0131k\u0131 kontrol kurarak vatanda\u015flar\u0131n\u0131 kontrol alt\u0131nda tutmak i\u00e7in giderek daha \u00e7ok kulland\u0131. Ge\u00e7en y\u0131l \u0130ran Rusya ile de bili\u015fim g\u00fcvenli\u011fi alan\u0131nda bir i\u015f birli\u011fi anla\u015fmas\u0131 imzalad\u0131.[13]<\/a> Bu y\u00fczden \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n Rusya ve \u00c7in\u2019in uluslararas\u0131 sistemde y\u00fckselen rol\u00fcn\u00fc alg\u0131lay\u0131\u015f\u0131, Bat\u0131 ile ili\u015fkilerin umut vaat etmeyen durumu ayr\u0131ca Tahran, Moskova ve Pekin aras\u0131ndaki otoriter empatisi protestolar\u0131n ard\u0131ndan \u0130slam Cumhuriyeti\u2019ni Do\u011fu\u2019ya daha da itecek fakt\u00f6rler aras\u0131nda yer al\u0131yor.<\/p>\n Burada, mevcut ko\u015fullar alt\u0131nda Pekin\u2019in deste\u011finin \u0130slam Cumhuriyeti i\u00e7in daha hayati \u00f6nemde olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtmek gerekir \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc Moskova temelde Bat\u0131\u2019n\u0131n yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131ndan ve Rus halk\u0131n\u0131n Kremlin\u2019in Ukrayna\u2019daki sava\u015f i\u00e7in ortaya koydu\u011fu son \u201ck\u0131smi seferberlik\u201d planlar\u0131ndan duydu\u011fu memnuniyetsizlik nedeniyle kendi artan i\u00e7 sorunlar\u0131yla cebelle\u015fiyor. Yine de i\u00e7 kar\u0131\u015f\u0131kl\u0131klar geri d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fc olmayan bir noktaya ula\u015f\u0131rsa \u00c7in\u2019in \u0130slam Cumhuriyeti\u2019nin ayakta kalmas\u0131na nas\u0131l yard\u0131m edebilece\u011fini hayal etmek zor.<\/p>\n Pekin en fazla \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n petrol\u00fcn\u00fc almaya devam edebilir veya bir ihtimal, Tahran\u2019a bor\u00e7 veya di\u011fer ekonomik yard\u0131m t\u00fcrleriyle destek sunabilir. Ancak daha \u00f6nce de\u011finildi\u011fi gibi sokaktaki insanlar\u0131n talepleri ekonomik ko\u015fullar\u0131n iyile\u015ftirilmesini \u00e7ok a\u015f\u0131yor. Bu nedenle ister KOEP\u2019in canland\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 isterse \u00c7in yard\u0131m\u0131ndan kaynaklans\u0131n hi\u00e7bir finansal m\u00fckafat \u0130ran h\u00fck\u00fcmetinin halk\u0131n huzursuzlu\u011funun k\u00f6kleriyle ba\u015f etmesine yard\u0131m edemez.<\/p>\n \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n b\u00f6lgesel politikas\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan son protestolar en az \u00fc\u00e7 y\u00f6nden \u00f6nem arz ediyor. Birincisi, \u0130ran h\u00fck\u00fcmetinin kamuoyunu i\u00e7 sorunlar\u0131n temel nedenlerinden ba\u015fka y\u00f6ne \u00e7ekmek i\u00e7in krizi d\u0131\u015fsalla\u015ft\u0131rma giri\u015fimi. \u0130kincisi, b\u00f6lge devletlerinin protestolara tepkisi. Ve sonuncu ama bir o kadar \u00f6nemlisi, protestolar\u0131n \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n b\u00f6lge genelindeki m\u00fcttefik a\u011f\u0131 yahut \u201cdireni\u015f ekseni\u201d \u00fczerindeki muhtemel etkileri.<\/p>\n Mahsa Emini\u2019nin Sak\u0131z kentinden bir K\u00fcrt olmas\u0131, protestolar\u0131n ilk g\u00fcnlerinde baz\u0131 g\u00f6zlemcileri bunun \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n hassas etnik fay hatlar\u0131n\u0131 etkileyebilece\u011fi ve sonucunda K\u00fcrt n\u00fcfuslu b\u00f6lgelerde ayr\u0131l\u0131k\u00e7\u0131 hisleri artt\u0131rabilece\u011fi uyar\u0131s\u0131nda bulunmaya sevk etmi\u015fti. Ancak ger\u00e7ekte ya\u015fanan, etnisite unsurunun k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck bir rol oynad\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00fclke geneli bir tepki oldu. Yine de protestolar\u0131n patlak vermesinden k\u0131sa bir s\u00fcre sonra \u0130slam Devrimi Muhaf\u0131zlar\u0131 Ordusu (\u0130DMO) \u201cayr\u0131l\u0131k\u00e7\u0131 ve ter\u00f6rist gruplar\u0131n artan faaliyetleri\u201d olarak tan\u0131mlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 duruma kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k olarak Irak K\u00fcrdistan\u0131\u2019nda bulunan \u0130ranl\u0131 K\u00fcrt muhalif gruplar\u0131 hedef almaya ba\u015flad\u0131.[14]<\/a> \u00dcstelik bunlar ayr\u0131l\u0131k\u00e7\u0131 K\u00fcrt milislerin protestolarda aktif rol ald\u0131\u011f\u0131na ili\u015fkin hi\u00e7bir g\u00fcvenilir kan\u0131t olmamas\u0131na ra\u011fmen yap\u0131ld\u0131.<\/p>\n Bu nedenle \u00f6yle g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor ki \u0130slam Cumhuriyeti, K\u00fcrt gruplar\u0131 k\u0131\u015fk\u0131rt\u0131p onlar\u0131 \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmaya s\u00fcr\u00fckleyerek ayr\u0131l\u0131k\u00e7\u0131l\u0131k tehdidini \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131karmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131yor. \u0130ranl\u0131 yetkililer b\u00f6ylelikle i\u00e7 atmosferi g\u00fcvenlikle\u015ftirip insanlar\u0131 protestolara kat\u0131lmaktan vazge\u00e7irmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131yor g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Belu\u00e7 etnik az\u0131nl\u0131\u011f\u0131n ya\u015fad\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00fcney \u0130ran\u2019daki Sistan ve Belucistan eyaletleri de h\u00fck\u00fcmetin benzer bir yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131na tan\u0131k oldu. Eyaletin ba\u015fkenti Zahidan\u2019da ya\u015fanan 30 Eyl\u00fcl protestolar\u0131 s\u0131ras\u0131nda en az 80 ki\u015fi \u00f6ld\u00fcr\u00fcld\u00fc.[15]<\/a> Resmi medya ve yetkililer bu kentteki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131 \u201cter\u00f6rist ve ayr\u0131l\u0131k\u00e7\u0131\u201d unsurlara atfediyor.<\/p>\n B\u00f6lge devletlerinin tepkilerine gelince, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n Arap kom\u015fular\u0131n\u0131n neredeyse hepsi protestolar konusunda bir duru\u015f sergilemekten ka\u00e7\u0131nd\u0131. \u0130ran h\u00fck\u00fcmetinin Suudi fonlu Fars\u00e7a medya organlar\u0131n\u0131 protestolar\u0131 alevlendirmekle su\u00e7lamas\u0131na ra\u011fmen \u015fimdiye kadar Riyad konu hakk\u0131nda sessiz kald\u0131. Ayn\u0131 durum di\u011fer K\u00f6rfez \u0130\u015fbirli\u011fi Konseyi (K\u0130K) \u00fcyeleri ve genel anlamda Arap devletleri i\u00e7in de ge\u00e7erli.<\/p>\n \u015eimdiye kadar bunun tek istisnas\u0131 protestolar\u0131 \u201ci\u00e7 mesele\u201d olarak tan\u0131mlayan ama Doha\u2019n\u0131n protestolar\u0131n \u015fiddet yoluyla bast\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 oldu\u011funu da vurgulayan Katar D\u0131\u015fi\u015fleri Bakan\u0131 Muhammed bin Abdurrahman el-Sani oldu.[16]<\/a> K\u00f6rfez monar\u015filerinin temkinli duru\u015funun arkas\u0131ndaki esas neden Arap Bahar\u0131\u2019na tepkilerinde de g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc gibi her t\u00fcr taban hareketine ve pop\u00fclist rejim de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fine kategorik olarak kar\u015f\u0131 olmalar\u0131 olabilir. Nitekim \u0130ran h\u00fck\u00fcmetinin devrimle y\u0131k\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131n kendi \u00fclkelerinde de devlet istikrar\u0131n\u0131 tehdit edecek benzer hareketlere ilham kayna\u011f\u0131 olmas\u0131ndan korkuyor da olabilirler. Ancak protestolar\u0131 \u0130slam Cumhuriyeti\u2019ne y\u00f6nelik varolu\u015fsal bir tehdit olarak de\u011ferlendirmiyor ve onlar\u0131 destekleyerek Tahran\u2019\u0131 tahrik etmek istemiyor olmalar\u0131 daha muhtemel.<\/p>\n Son olarak protestolar\u0131n b\u00f6lgesel \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc y\u00f6n\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan \u0130ran\u2019da ya\u015fananlar \u201cdireni\u015f ekseni\u201d denen b\u00f6lgelerdeki kamusal me\u015fruiyet krizinin en yak\u0131n \u00f6rne\u011fi. Son \u00fc\u00e7 y\u0131lda \u0130ran ve devlet d\u0131\u015f\u0131 m\u00fcttefikleri b\u00f6lge genelinde halk\u0131n tepkisine maruz kald\u0131. Irak\u2019ta 2019\u2019dan bu yana ya\u015fanan halk protestolar\u0131n\u0131n ana s\u00fctunlar\u0131ndan biri halk\u0131n \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n ve ba\u015fta Halk Seferberlik G\u00fc\u00e7leri (HSG) olmak \u00fczere Irakl\u0131 m\u00fcttefiklerinin Irak\u2019\u0131n sosyal ve politik sorunlar\u0131nda rol\u00fc oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnmesinden kaynaklanan \u00f6fkeydi.[17]<\/a> L\u00fcbnan\u2019da Hizbullah \u00fclkenin ekonomik ve toplumsal krizlerindeki rol\u00fc nedeniyle giderek daha fazla bask\u0131 hissediyor.[18]<\/a><\/p>\n \u015eimdi ise \u0130ran\u2019daki protestolar direni\u015f ekseninin merkezindeki me\u015fruiyet krizinin alt\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7izdi. Bu anlamda \u0130slam Cumhuriyeti\u2019nin protestolar\u0131 kontrol alt\u0131na almadaki ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131 ve ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131zl\u0131\u011f\u0131 m\u00fcttefiklerinin kendi \u00fclkelerindeki halk bask\u0131s\u0131yla ba\u015f etme kabiliyetini do\u011frudan etkileyecek. Bu ihtimal Hizbullah lideri Hasan Nasrallah\u2019\u0131n neden \u0130ran\u2019daki protestolar\u0131 \u201cBat\u0131l\u0131 ve Fars K\u00f6rfezi\u2019ndeki baz\u0131 \u00fclkelerin tahriklerinin\u201d[19]<\/a> sonucu olarak tan\u0131mlad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klayabilir.<\/p>\n \u0130ran\u2019daki halk protestolar\u0131, en az\u0131ndan 2009\u2019dan bu yana, \u0130slam Cumhuriyeti\u2019ni me\u015fruiyetine y\u00f6nelik en b\u00fcy\u00fck meydan okumayla kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya getirdi. Protestocular\u0131n talepleri do\u011frudan d\u0131\u015f politika konular\u0131n\u0131 i\u00e7ermiyor olsa da \u0130ran\u2019daki i\u00e7 geli\u015fmelerin uluslararas\u0131 etkileri belirgin hale gelmeye ba\u015flad\u0131 bile. Protestolar ve protestoculara duyulan uluslararas\u0131 sempati \u0130slam Cumhuriyeti ile Bat\u0131 aras\u0131ndaki ili\u015fkilerin normalle\u015fme ihtimalini daha da azaltt\u0131. Bu durum ayn\u0131 zamanda KOEP\u2019in gelece\u011fine de \u015f\u00fcphe d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrd\u00fc. Protestocular bast\u0131r\u0131l\u0131rken Bat\u0131l\u0131 devletlerin \u0130slam Cumhuriyeti ile diplomasiyi me\u015frula\u015ft\u0131rmas\u0131 zor.<\/p>\n Bu durumda \u0130ranl\u0131 liderler KOEP m\u00fczakerelerini sonuca ba\u011flama motivasyonlar\u0131n\u0131 kaybedebilir ve bunun yerine k\u0131r\u0131lgan stat\u00fckoyu uluslararas\u0131 bask\u0131y\u0131 y\u00f6netmenin en iyi yolu olarak g\u00f6rebilirler. Ayn\u0131 zamanda Rusya ve \u00c7in ile daha yak\u0131n ba\u011flar geli\u015ftirme motivasyonlar\u0131 daha da artacakt\u0131r. B\u00f6lge s\u00f6z konusu oldu\u011funda \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n krizi kom\u015fu \u00fclkelere, \u00f6zellikle de Irak\u2019a s\u00fcr\u00fckleme y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki apa\u00e7\u0131k niyeti \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n kom\u015fular\u0131yla ili\u015fkileri \u00fczerinde ciddi etkiler yaratabilir. Irak h\u00fck\u00fcmeti \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n kendi egemenli\u011fini ihlal etmesini \u015fimdiden g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir \u015fekilde protesto etti. Tahran ile Ba\u011fdat aras\u0131ndaki herhangi bir s\u00fcrt\u00fc\u015fme \u0130ran ile Suudi Arabistan aras\u0131nda Irak\u2019\u0131n ev sahipli\u011fi yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeleri de olumsuz etkileyebilir.<\/p>\n Her hal\u00fck\u00e2rda protestolar\u0131n \u0130slam Cumhuriyeti\u2019nin d\u0131\u015f ili\u015fkilerine ger\u00e7ek etkisi iki etmene ba\u011fl\u0131: Birincisi, \u0130ran h\u00fck\u00fcmetinin durumu k\u0131sa vadede kontrol alt\u0131na al\u0131p alamayaca\u011f\u0131 ve al\u0131rsa bunun maliyetinin ne olaca\u011f\u0131. \u0130kinci fakt\u00f6r ise d\u0131\u015f akt\u00f6rlerin protestolar hakk\u0131nda hangi pozisyonu ald\u0131\u011f\u0131. Mesela Fars K\u00f6rfezi\u2019ndeki Arap devletleri protestocular\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131ktan desteklerse \u0130ranl\u0131 liderler misilleme yapmay\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnebilir ki bu da t\u0131rmand\u0131r\u0131c\u0131 bir d\u00f6ng\u00fcy\u00fc tetikleyip b\u00f6lgenin istikrar\u0131n\u0131 tehlikeye sokabilir. Halihaz\u0131rda t\u00fcm b\u00f6lgesel akt\u00f6rler \u0130ran\u2019daki protestolara y\u00f6nelik bekle ve g\u00f6r yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 benimserken \u00e7e\u015fitli muhtemel senaryolar i\u00e7in se\u00e7eneklerini de\u011ferlendiriyor g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n [1]<\/a> Nilo Tabrizy & Haley Willis, \u201cWhat Video Footage Reveals About the Protests in Iran\u201d, The New York Times, 04\/10\/2022, https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2022\/10\/04\/world\/asia\/iran-protest-video-analysis.html<\/a>.<\/p>\n [2]<\/a> France 24, \u201c\u2018We will fight\u2019: Iran protests following death of Mahsa Amini enter fourth week\u201d, 20\/09\/2022, https:\/\/www.france24.com\/en\/middle-east\/20221009-join-us-and-stand-up-iran-protests-following-death-of-mahsa-amini-enter-fourth-week<\/a>.<\/p>\n [3]<\/a> David Gritten, \u201cIran protests: Supreme leader blames unrest on US and Israel\u201d, BBC, 04\/10\/2022, https:\/\/www.bbc.com\/news\/world-middle-east-63118637<\/a>.<\/p>\n [4]<\/a> J. E. Dyer, \u201cNeither Gaza nor Lebanon, My Life for Iran!\u201d, Commentary, 18\/09\/2009, https:\/\/www.commentary.org\/j-e-dyer\/neither-gaza-nor-lebanon-my-life-for-iran\/<\/a>.<\/p>\n [5]<\/a> Aljazeera, \u201cIran\u2019s protests: All you need to know in 600 words\u201d, 20\/11\/2019, https:\/\/www.aljazeera.com\/news\/2019\/11\/20\/irans-protests-all-you-need-to-know-in-600-words<\/a>.<\/p>\n [6]<\/a> Erwin van Veen & Hamidreza Azizi, \u201c Death of the Deal: Why Tensions Will Rise With Iran\u201d, The National Interest\u201d, 16\/07\/2022, https:\/\/nationalinterest.org\/feature\/death-deal-why-tensions-will-rise-iran-203626<\/a>.<\/p>\n [7]<\/a> Reuters, \u201cCanada to ban leaders of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards from entry\u201d, 08\/10\/2022, https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/world\/canada-ban-irans-irgc-leaders-entry-expand-sanctions-2022-10-07\/<\/a>.<\/p>\n [8]<\/a> Iran International, \u201cUS Security Advisor Denounces Iran\u2019s Brutal Repression Of People\u201d, 25\/09\/2022, https:\/\/www.iranintl.com\/en\/202209252228<\/a>.<\/p>\n [9]<\/a>Eldar Mamedov, Twitter, 06\/10\/2022, https:\/\/twitter.com\/EldarMamedov4\/status\/1578057227495145472?cxt=HHwWgICwgYCsseYrAAAA<\/a>.<\/p>\n [10]<\/a> Titr-e-Bartar, \u201cAmir-Abdollahian Warns the European Union\u201d, 05\/10\/2022, https:\/\/www.titrebartar.com\/fa\/news\/191029<\/a>.<\/p>\n [11]<\/a> Hamidreza Azizi, \u201cWhat Iran really seeks from the SCO\u201d, 27\/09\/2022, https:\/\/amwaj.media\/article\/what-iran-really-seeks-from-the-sco<\/a>.<\/p>\n [12]<\/a> Mark Katz, \u201cWhy US allies in the Middle East aren\u2019t taking sides in the Ukraine war\u201d, The Atlantic Council, 08\/09\/2022, https:\/\/www.atlanticcouncil.org\/blogs\/new-atlanticist\/why-us-allies-in-the-middle-east-arent-taking-sides-in-the-ukraine-war\/<\/a>.<\/p>\n [13]<\/a> IRNA, \u201cIran and Russia signed a cooperation agreement in the field of information security\u201d, 26\/01\/2021, https:\/\/www.irna.ir\/news\/84199866\/<\/a>.<\/p>\n [14]<\/a> RFE-RL, \u201c13 Killed In Iraqi Kurdistan As Iran Escalates Attacks Amid Unrest At Home\u201d, 29\/09\/2022, https:\/\/www.rferl.org\/a\/iran-amini-protests-crackdown-might-force\/32055924.html<\/a>.<\/p>\n [15]<\/a> Amnesty International, \u201cIran: At least 82 Baluchi protesters and bystanders killed in bloody crackdown\u201d, 06\/10\/2022, https:\/\/www.amnesty.org\/en\/latest\/news\/2022\/10\/iran-at-least-82-baluchi-protesters-and-bystanders-killed-in-bloody-crackdown\/<\/a>.<\/p>\n [16]<\/a> Bloomberg, \u201cQatar Foreign Minister on Germany Energy Talks, Iran\u201d, 21\/09\/2022, https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/videos\/2022-09-20\/qatar-foreign-minister-on-germany-energy-talks-iran-video<\/a>.<\/p>\n [17]<\/a> The Economist, \u201cIraqis are getting fed up with Iran\u201d, 25\/03\/2021, https:\/\/www.economist.com\/middle-east-and-africa\/2021\/03\/25\/iraqis-are-getting-fed-up-with-iran<\/a>.<\/p>\n [18]<\/a> VOA News, \u201cHezbollah Hammered with Criticism Amid Lebanon’s Crises\u201d, 01\/09\/2021, https:\/\/www.voanews.com\/a\/middle-east_hezbollah-hammered-criticism-amid-lebanons-crises\/6210214.html<\/a>.<\/p>\n [19]<\/a> Faramarz Davar, \u201cWhy Does Hezbollah\u2019s Nasrollah Insult Iranian Protesters?\u201d, Iran Wire, 03\/10\/2022, https:\/\/iranwire.com\/en\/politics\/108253-why-does-hezbollahs-nasrollah-insult-iranian-protesters\/<\/a>.<\/p>\n<\/div> \u0130ran\u2019da s\u00fcregelen halk protestolar\u0131 2009\u2019dan bu yana \u0130slam Cumhuriyeti\u2019nin me\u015fruiyetine y\u00f6nelik en b\u00fcy\u00fck meydan okuma. Protestocular\u0131n talepleri d\u0131\u015f politika konular\u0131n\u0131 do\u011frudan kapsamasa da \u0130ran\u2019daki i\u00e7 geli\u015fmelerin uluslararas\u0131 yans\u0131malar\u0131 belirginle\u015fmeye ba\u015flad\u0131 bile. Protestolar \u0130slam Cumhuriyeti ile Bat\u0131 aras\u0131ndaki ili\u015fkilerin normalle\u015fme ihtimalini azalt\u0131rken KOEP\u2019in gelece\u011fi konusundaki \u015f\u00fcpheleri de art\u0131rd\u0131<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":269,"featured_media":35128,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","ngg_post_thumbnail":0},"categories":[361],"tags":[17618,18874,18875],"asf_pub_issue":[10319],"asf_pub_region":[10321],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/35311"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/269"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=35311"}],"version-history":[{"count":9,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/35311\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":35424,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/35311\/revisions\/35424"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/35128"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=35311"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=35311"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=35311"},{"taxonomy":"asf_pub_issue","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/asf_pub_issue?post=35311"},{"taxonomy":"asf_pub_region","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/asf_pub_region?post=35311"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}Giri\u015f<\/strong><\/span><\/h2>\n
D\u0131\u015f politikan\u0131n s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 rol\u00fc<\/strong><\/span><\/h2>\n
Ancak bu kez protestolarda d\u0131\u015f politikayla ili\u015fkili sloganlar neredeyse hi\u00e7 yok.<\/strong><\/span><\/h2>\n
\u0130ran ile Bat\u0131: Duvardaki bir ba\u015fka tu\u011fla<\/strong><\/span><\/h2>\n
\u0130ran ile Do\u011fulu g\u00fc\u00e7ler: Otoriter empatisi<\/strong><\/span><\/h2>\n
\u0130ran ile Ortado\u011fu: Karma\u015fa ekseni<\/strong><\/span><\/h2>\n
Sonu\u00e7<\/strong><\/span><\/h2>\n
Referanslar<\/strong><\/span><\/h2>\n
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