![\"\"](\"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/resweblogo-150x100.jpg\" "\\"\\"")
Al Sharq Strategic Research<\/a> <\/i> 24 \u015eubat 2023<\/span><\/h6><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div>PDF \u0130ndir<\/span><\/a><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div>G\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f Raporu<\/a> \/ \/ <\/h6><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div>(Bu yaz\u0131 <\/em><\/strong>Asbab<\/em><\/strong><\/a><\/span> ile ortak bir \u015fekilde haz\u0131rlanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r.)<\/em><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n\u00d6zet:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n- Merkez \u00fcss\u00fc Kahramanmara\u015f\u2019\u0131n Pazarc\u0131k il\u00e7esi olmak \u00fczere, 6 \u015eubat 2023 tarihinde meydana gelen ve T\u00fcrkiye ile Suriye\u2019de geni\u015f alanlarda y\u0131k\u0131ma sebep olan depremin sebep oldu\u011fu sonu\u00e7lara ili\u015fkin bir tahminde bulunmak i\u00e7in hen\u00fcz erken oldu\u011fu s\u00f6ylenebilir. T\u00fcrkiye\u2019deki Cumhurba\u015fkanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 se\u00e7imlerine \u00e7ok k\u0131sa bir s\u00fcre kalm\u0131\u015fken meydana gelen bu deprem, i\u00e7 siyasetteki belirsizli\u011fi art\u0131rm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Zira se\u00e7imlerin ertelenmesi se\u00e7ene\u011fi h\u00e2l\u00e2 masadad\u0131r. Cumhurba\u015fkan\u0131 Recep Tayyip Erdo\u011fan, 20 y\u0131ll\u0131k iktidar\u0131n\u0131n en zor zamanlar\u0131n\u0131 ge\u00e7irirken ve b\u00fct\u00fcn enerjisini afet y\u00f6netimine harcam\u0131\u015fken, yeniden se\u00e7ilme \u015fans\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rmak i\u00e7in bu \u00e7abalar\u0131n\u0131n merkezine yeniden imar\u0131 ve erken iyile\u015fmeyi koyacakt\u0131r.<\/li>\n
- Se\u00e7imlerin ertelenmesi ihtimal dahilindedir. B\u00f6yle bir durumda iki etmen \u00fczerinde durulabilir. Bunlardan birincisi, altyap\u0131n\u0131n zarar g\u00f6rmesi ve y\u00fczbinlerce insan\u0131n ba\u015fka illere gitmek zorunda kalmas\u0131yla ili\u015fkili olan yap\u0131sal etmendir. \u0130kincisi ise iktidar partisinin depreme haz\u0131r olma seviyesine ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak kamuoyunda olu\u015fan g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f farkl\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendirmesi ve iktidar\u0131n i\u00e7inde bulundu\u011fu ittifak\u0131n kamuoyu deste\u011fini olumsuz etkileyecek bir ekonomik yans\u0131mayla ili\u015fkili etmendir.<\/li>\n
- Depremde zarar g\u00f6ren iller, toplam Gayri Safi Yurt \u0130\u00e7i Has\u0131lan\u0131n (GSYH) y\u00fczde 9\u2019unu olu\u015fturmaktad\u0131r. Bununla birlikte, ticaret ve sanayi merkezleri olan \u0130stanbul, Ankara, \u0130zmir, Bursa ve Kocaeli gibi illerin depremden etkilenmemi\u015f olmas\u0131, ekonomik zarar\u0131n da \u00e7ok uzun vadeli olmayaca\u011f\u0131 de\u011ferlendirmesini yapmaya imk\u00e2n tan\u0131maktad\u0131r. Ayr\u0131ca, \u0130stanbul, Antalya ve Edirne gibi turizm merkezlerinin de zarar g\u00f6rmemesi g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcne al\u0131nmal\u0131d\u0131r.<\/li>\n
- Orta vadede depremin sebep oldu\u011fu ekonomik kay\u0131plar hakk\u0131nda bir fikre varmak i\u00e7in erken oldu\u011fu s\u00f6ylenebilir. Yan\u0131 s\u0131ra, s\u00f6z konusu kayb\u0131n getirece\u011fi y\u00fck\u00fcn a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131\u011f\u0131 da Ankara\u2019n\u0131n yeniden imar i\u00e7in ba\u015flataca\u011f\u0131 \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmalara gelecek d\u0131\u015f deste\u011fe ba\u011fl\u0131 olacakt\u0131r. Bu deste\u011fin b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00e7o\u011funlu\u011funun K\u00f6rfez \u00fclkeleri, Avrupa Birli\u011fi (AB) ve ABD\u2019den gelece\u011fi beklenmektedir. Ayr\u0131ca, \u00c7in ve Rusya\u2019n\u0131n da Ankara\u2019ya bu anlamda destek vermesi muhtemeldir.<\/li>\n
- Deprem sonras\u0131 uluslararas\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lerin T\u00fcrkiye ile g\u00f6sterdi\u011fi dayan\u0131\u015fma, jeo-siyasi hesaplar\u0131n bir tarafa b\u0131rak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 anlam\u0131na gelmeyecektir. T\u00fcrkiye, Avrupa \u00fclkeleri ve ABD\u2019den gelecek deste\u011fi dikkatle takip edecek ve bu deste\u011fe siyasi bir mesaj g\u00f6z\u00fcyle bakacakt\u0131r. \u00c7in\u2019in tavr\u0131 belirsiz olmakla birlikte, Rusya\u2019n\u0131n deste\u011finin \u00f6zellikle Bat\u0131l\u0131lar\u0131n yetersiz kalmas\u0131 halinde T\u00fcrkiye\u2019ye y\u00f6nelebilece\u011fi unutulmamal\u0131d\u0131r. Katar\u2019\u0131n bu s\u00fcrece etkin bir \u015fekilde kat\u0131laca\u011f\u0131 beklenmektedir. Suudi Arabistan ve Birle\u015fik Arap Emirlikleri\u2019nin (BAE) bu s\u00fcrece kat\u0131l\u0131m\u0131 da T\u00fcrkiye ile olan stratejik ili\u015fkilerine ne kadar \u00f6nem verdiklerine dair ipucu verecektir.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
Giri\u015f:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n- T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin g\u00fcneydo\u011fu illeri ile Suriye\u2019nin kuzeybat\u0131s\u0131ndaki b\u00f6lgeler, 6 \u015eubat 2023 g\u00fcn\u00fc pe\u015f pe\u015fe meydana gelen iki b\u00fcy\u00fck depremle sars\u0131ld\u0131. Kahramanmara\u015f\u2019\u0131n Pazarc\u0131k il\u00e7esi merkezli ilk depremin \u015fiddeti, 7.7 olarak \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcl\u00fcrken, birka\u00e7 saat sonra yine Kahramanmara\u015f\u2019\u0131n Elbistan il\u00e7esi merkezli olmak \u00fczere meydana gelen ikinci depremin \u015fiddeti ise 7.6 olarak \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcr. Bununla birlikte, merkez \u00fcss\u00fc Gaziantep\u2019in \u0130slahiye il\u00e7esi olmak \u00fczere 6.5 b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde bir deprem daha meydana gelmi\u015ftir. T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin son 100 y\u0131lda ya\u015fad\u0131\u011f\u0131 en b\u00fcy\u00fck depremler olarak kay\u0131tlara ge\u00e7en bu depremler, b\u00fcy\u00fck bir felakete sebep olarak \u015fu ana kadar 41 bini a\u015fk\u0131n insan\u0131n \u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcyle sonu\u00e7lanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Suriye genelindeki \u00f6l\u00fc say\u0131s\u0131 ise resmi rakamlara g\u00f6re \u015fu ana kadar 5 bin 800 civar\u0131ndad\u0131r. Otoyol ve havalimanlar\u0131nda da b\u00fcy\u00fck hasarlar meydana gelirken, T\u00fcrkiye h\u00fck\u00fcmeti taraf\u0131ndan deprem b\u00f6lgelerindeki 85 bin binan\u0131n y\u0131k\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 (ya da y\u0131k\u0131lmak \u00fczere oldu\u011fu) 121 bin 515 binan\u0131n ise k\u0131smen hasar g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fcn tespit edildi\u011fi ilan edildi. H\u00fck\u00fcmet, ayr\u0131ca depremin y\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131 10 ilde (Kahramanmara\u015f, Ad\u0131yaman, Malatya, Kilis, Gaziantep, Osmaniye, \u015eanl\u0131urfa, Adana, Diyarbak\u0131r ve Hatay) 3 ayl\u0131\u011f\u0131na Ola\u011fan\u00fcst\u00fc Hal (OHAL) ilan etti.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
<\/strong>Toz Bulutlar\u0131 Da\u011f\u0131ld\u0131ktan Sonra: Yerel Belirsizlik ve D\u0131\u015f S\u00fck\u00fbnet<\/strong><\/p>\n\n- B\u00fcy\u00fck do\u011fal afetlerin her zaman h\u00fck\u00fcmetlerin planlamalar\u0131 d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda yerel ve jeo-siyasi sonu\u00e7lar\u0131 olmu\u015ftur. Fakat bu sonu\u00e7lar tek y\u00f6nl\u00fc de\u011fildir; muhalefetin afeti h\u00fck\u00fcmetin yeterlili\u011fine dair \u015f\u00fcphe olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in kullanma imk\u00e2n\u0131 oldu\u011fu kadar, h\u00fck\u00fcmetin de devletin g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc kendisini kamuoyuna afetle m\u00fccadele eden g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir h\u00fck\u00fcmet olarak takdim etmekte kullanma imk\u00e2n\u0131 vard\u0131r. T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de bu konuda ya\u015fanan bir \u00f6rne\u011fe bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda, 1999 y\u0131l\u0131ndaki G\u00f6lc\u00fck depreminin ard\u0131ndan B\u00fclent Ecevit h\u00fck\u00fcmetine felaket sonras\u0131n\u0131 do\u011fru y\u00f6netememek noktas\u0131nda ithamlar y\u00f6neltilmi\u015ftir. S\u00f6z konusu deprem, o d\u00f6nem ciddi bir ekonomik krizin i\u00e7inden ge\u00e7en T\u00fcrkiye\u2019ye b\u00fcy\u00fck ekonomik zararlar vermi\u015ftir. Depremin etkileri, h\u00fck\u00fcmetin g\u00fc\u00e7s\u00fczl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcne ve ekonomik ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131zl\u0131\u011f\u0131na \u0131\u015f\u0131k tutarken, 2002 y\u0131l\u0131nda Adalet ve Kalk\u0131nma Partisi\u2019ni iktidara getiren erken se\u00e7imlerin de \u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7m\u0131\u015ft\u0131r denebilir.<\/li>\n
- Bug\u00fcn ise T\u00fcrkiye, belirleyici bir Cumhurba\u015fkanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve Parlamento se\u00e7imlerinin e\u015fi\u011finde bulunmaktad\u0131r. H\u00fck\u00fcmet, se\u00e7imleri May\u0131s ay\u0131 ortas\u0131nda yapmaya haz\u0131rlan\u0131yordu. Kahramanmara\u015f depremi ise bu se\u00e7imlerin zaten \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclemeyen sonu\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7ok daha belirsiz h\u00e2le getirmi\u015ftir. Zira, se\u00e7menlerin h\u00fcz\u00fcn ve \u00f6fke duygular\u0131yla h\u00fck\u00fcmeti d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrme y\u00f6n\u00fcnde oy kullanmas\u0131 olas\u0131d\u0131r. \u00d6te yandan, h\u00fck\u00fcmetin de felakete kar\u015f\u0131 yeterli olmas\u0131 h\u00e2linde se\u00e7menler i\u00e7in g\u00fcvenilir bir taraf olma ihtimali de bulunmaktad\u0131r.<\/li>\n
- A\u015fa\u011f\u0131da, felaketin ekonomi, yerel siyaset ve jeo-siyaset eksenindeki sonu\u00e7lar\u0131na dair de\u011ferlendirmemizi ifade etmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015faca\u011f\u0131z.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
Birincisi: Ekonomik Sonu\u00e7lar<\/strong><\/p>\n\n- Depremin vurdu\u011fu 10 il, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin toplam n\u00fcfusunun y\u00fczde 15\u2019ini olu\u015fturmaktad\u0131r (13.5 milyon civar\u0131nda) ancak di\u011fer illere k\u0131yasla daha fakir iller oldu\u011fu s\u00f6ylenebilir. Bu iller, GSYH\u2019nin y\u00fczde 9\u2019unu olu\u015ftururken, bunun y\u00fczde 15\u2019ini ziraat, y\u00fczde 9\u2019unu sanayi ve y\u00fczde 8\u2019ini d\u0131\u015f ticaret olu\u015fturmaktad\u0131r.<\/li>\n
- Deprem b\u00f6lgelerindeki iller, ekonomik olarak nispeten de olsa \u00f6nem ta\u015f\u0131makla birlikte, ilk de\u011ferlendirmeler depremin ekonomik etkisinin s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kalaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ifade etmektedir. T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de GSYH\u2019nin y\u00fczde 53\u2019\u00fcn\u00fc olu\u015fturan<\/a> ve \u00fclkenin en b\u00fcy\u00fck 5 \u015fehri olan \u0130stanbul, Ankara, \u0130zmir, Bursa ve Kocaeli\u2019nin yan\u0131 s\u0131ra, \u0130stanbul ile birlikte \u00fclkenin turizm gelirinin y\u00fczde 76\u2019s\u0131n\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131layan<\/a> Antalya ve Edirne de depremden etkilenmemi\u015ftir. Afet b\u00f6lgesi olarak ilan edilen b\u00f6lgede bile (ziraat gibi) baz\u0131 \u00fcretim alanlar\u0131 depremden etkilenmemi\u015ftir. Stratejik altyap\u0131n\u0131n u\u011frad\u0131\u011f\u0131 zarar ise uzun vadeli g\u00f6z\u00fckmemektedir. Hatay Havaliman\u0131\u2019ndaki y\u0131k\u0131m (k\u0131sa s\u00fcrede yeniden hizmete a\u00e7\u0131lm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r) ve \u0130skenderun liman\u0131ndaki yang\u0131n haricinde, b\u00f6lgedeki lojistik merkezler, anayollar, petrol rafinerileri ve havalimanlar\u0131nda b\u00fcy\u00fck hasarlar kaydedilmemi\u015ftir.<\/li>\n
- Felaketin ve temel maddelerin felaket b\u00f6lgesine y\u00f6nlendirilmesinin k\u0131sa vadede h\u00fck\u00fcmetin enflasyonu kontrol etme \u00e7abalar\u0131n\u0131<\/a> etkileyece\u011fi s\u00f6ylenebilir. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k se\u00e7imlere yakla\u015f\u0131l\u0131rken \u00f6deme b\u00fct\u00e7esinin deprem b\u00f6lgelerindeki yard\u0131m ve imar i\u00e7in g\u00f6nderilen yard\u0131mlarla desteklenece\u011fi tahmin edilmektedir. Ancak se\u00e7im sonras\u0131 h\u00fck\u00fcmet ve Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (MB) \u00fclkedeki d\u00f6viz fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n iyile\u015ftirilmesine ihtiya\u00e7 duyaca\u011f\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fclmektedir.<\/li>\n
- H\u00fck\u00fcmetin tahminlerine uygun olarak depremin T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de y\u00fczde 3.5 oran\u0131nda bir GSYH b\u00fct\u00e7e a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 vermesine neden olaca\u011f\u0131 tahmin edilmektedir. Gelen d\u0131\u015f destek ise bu oran\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131lamaktad\u0131r. Yurt i\u00e7i kalk\u0131nman\u0131n da depremden etkilenece\u011fi tahmin edilirken, bu etkinin y\u00fczde 3.3 daralmaya sebep olan 1999 depreminin aksine Avrupa \u0130n\u015fa ve \u0130mar Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (EBRD) makul bir seviye olarak a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131\u011f\u0131 y\u00fczde 1 oran\u0131nda kalmas\u0131 beklenmektedir.<\/a> Yeniden imar \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131n\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7lendirilmesinin ise depremin altyap\u0131 ve tedarik hatlar\u0131nda sebep oldu\u011fu zarar\u0131 telafi edece\u011fi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fclmektedir. Zira yeniden in\u015fa \u00fcretimin de g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesi anlam\u0131na gelebilmektedir. 1995 y\u0131l\u0131nda K\u00fcba\u2019da, 2004 y\u0131l\u0131nda Japonya\u2019da ve 2010 y\u0131l\u0131nda \u015eili\u2019de oldu\u011fu gibi ekonomilerin afet sebebiyle u\u011frad\u0131\u011f\u0131 zararlar\u0131 k\u0131sa s\u00fcrede telafi etti\u011fi daha \u00f6nce g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcr.<\/li>\n
- Bunlar\u0131n yan\u0131 s\u0131ra, deprem sonras\u0131 hasar tespit \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131n\u0131n bile hen\u00fcz sona ermedi\u011fi ve depremin sebep oldu\u011fu ekonomik zarar konusunda kesin bir de\u011ferlendirme yap\u0131lmas\u0131 i\u00e7in hen\u00fcz erken oldu\u011fu g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcnde bulundurulmal\u0131d\u0131r. Bu durum, \u00e7e\u015fitli taraflar\u0131n \u00f6ne s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc tahminlerin ge\u00e7i\u015fkenlik g\u00f6stermesine sebep olmaktad\u0131r. \u00d6rne\u011fin; T\u00fcrkiye Giri\u015fim ve \u0130\u015f D\u00fcnyas\u0131 Konfederasyonu (T\u00dcRKONFED) depremin etkisiyle binalar\u0131n y\u0131k\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131n 70.8 milyar dolarl\u0131k bir mali zarara sebep oldu\u011funu, milli gelirin ise 10.4 milyar dolar azald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 tahmin etmektedir. Deprem ayr\u0131ca, i\u015f d\u00fcnyas\u0131na da 2.9 milyar dolarl\u0131k bir zarar getirmi\u015ftir. Ba\u015fka taraflar, zarar\u0131n boyutlar\u0131n\u0131n daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck oldu\u011funu ifade ederken T\u00dcRKONFED taraf\u0131ndan yap\u0131lan 84 milyar dolar civar\u0131ndaki bu tahmin soru i\u015faretlerini beraberinde getirmektedir. \u00d6rnek vermek gerekirse, JPMorgan Bankas\u0131<\/a> kayb\u0131n 25 milyar dolar civar\u0131nda kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ne s\u00fcrerken, Barclays Investment Bank ise hen\u00fcz bir tahminde bulunmak i\u00e7in erken oldu\u011funu dile getirmi\u015ftir.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
<\/strong>\u0130kincisi: \u0130\u00e7 Siyaset ve Se\u00e7imlere Yans\u0131malar\u0131<\/strong><\/p>\n\n- B\u00fcy\u00fck bir y\u0131k\u0131ma neden olan depremin ard\u0131ndan T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin k\u0131sa bir birlik ve dayan\u0131\u015fma s\u00fcreci ge\u00e7irece\u011fi s\u00f6ylenebilir. Ancak muhalefetin, AK Parti taraf\u0131ndan s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclen asgari \u00fccret zamm\u0131 ve politika faizinin d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fclmesi gibi ekonomik geni\u015fleme program\u0131n\u0131n ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131z oldu\u011funu g\u00fcndeme getirmek i\u00e7in f\u0131rsat kollayaca\u011f\u0131 da tahmin edilebilir. Bu T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin depremin sebep oldu\u011fu milyarca dolarl\u0131k zarar\u0131 telafi etme g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc etkileyecektir. \u00d6te yandan, d\u0131\u015f yard\u0131mlar\u0131n zarar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131lamaktan uzak kalmas\u0131 halinde muhalefetin tezleri g\u00fc\u00e7lenirken, T\u00fcrkiye yeniden imar\u0131n getirdi\u011fi y\u00fck\u00fc tek ba\u015f\u0131na s\u0131rtlamak zorunda kalabilir.<\/li>\n
- Buna ek olarak, binalar\u0131n depreme dayan\u0131kl\u0131l\u0131k kriterlerine uyumlu olmamas\u0131n\u0131n depremdeki can kay\u0131plar\u0131n\u0131n artmas\u0131na sebep oldu\u011funa ili\u015fkin raporlar da muhalefet a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan kullan\u0131\u015fl\u0131 olarak g\u00f6z\u00fckmektedir. Ayr\u0131ca, baz\u0131 kurban yak\u0131nlar\u0131n\u0131n zaman i\u00e7inde ya\u015fanan kay\u0131plar\u0131 h\u00fck\u00fcmet ve belediyelerin m\u00fcteahhit firmalar\u0131n deprem y\u00f6netmeli\u011finden ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f\u0131na yard\u0131m etti\u011fi iddialar\u0131n\u0131 dillendirmeye ba\u015flamas\u0131 da bu imk\u00e2n\u0131 muhalefete verebilir. Bu sebeple, T\u00fcrkiye h\u00fck\u00fcmetinin onlarca m\u00fcteahhidi g\u00f6zalt\u0131na alarak, deprem y\u00f6netmeli\u011fine ayk\u0131r\u0131 yap\u0131lm\u0131\u015f binalar hakk\u0131nda soru\u015fturmalar a\u00e7t\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcr.<\/li>\n
- \u015eehirlerin altyap\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fck zararlara u\u011framas\u0131 ve y\u00fczbinlerce, hatta milyonlarca insan\u0131n yer de\u011fi\u015ftirmek zorunda kalmas\u0131n\u0131n g\u00f6lgesinde, deprem nedeniyle se\u00e7imlerin ertelenmesi se\u00e7ene\u011finin h\u00e2l\u00e2 muhtemel oldu\u011fu g\u00f6r\u00fclmektedir. Se\u00e7imlerin ertelenmesi fikrinin AK Parti\u2019nin kamuoyundaki tepkileri \u00f6l\u00e7erek lehte ya da aleyhte bir durum de\u011ferlendirmesi yapmas\u0131yla ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 oldu\u011fu \u00f6ne s\u00fcr\u00fclmektedir.<\/li>\n
- Bu zorlu \u015fartlar alt\u0131nda, Cumhurba\u015fkan\u0131 Recep Tayyip Erdo\u011fan\u2019\u0131n 20 y\u0131ll\u0131k iktidar\u0131n\u0131n en zorlu se\u00e7imiyle kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya oldu\u011fu s\u00f6ylenebilir. Bununla birlikte Erdo\u011fan, adeti oldu\u011fu \u00fczere se\u00e7imleri kazanma ihtimalini g\u00fc\u00e7lendirmek i\u00e7in giri\u015fken olmaya ve felaketin yaralar\u0131n\u0131 erkenden sarmak i\u00e7in \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmaya devam edecektir. Ulusal medyan\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fck k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131n AK Parti kontrol\u00fcnde olmas\u0131 da onun bu \u00e7abalar\u0131n\u0131 halka yans\u0131tmas\u0131na yard\u0131mc\u0131 olacakt\u0131r. Bu noktada, Erdo\u011fan\u2019\u0131n 2021 yaz\u0131nda meydana gelen orman yang\u0131nlar\u0131n\u0131n aksine bu depremde \u201cD\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fc Derece Alarm Seviyesi\u201dni h\u0131zl\u0131ca harekete ge\u00e7irdi\u011fi g\u00f6ze \u00e7arpm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
\u00dc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fcs\u00fc: Jeo-Siyasi Yans\u0131malar<\/strong> <\/strong><\/p>\n\n- Fransa ve Yunanistan gibi T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin son zamanlarda jeo-siyasi gerilimler ya\u015fad\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00fclkeler dahil<\/a> b\u00f6lgesel m\u00fcttefikler ve akt\u00f6rlerin deprem sonras\u0131 h\u0131zl\u0131ca T\u00fcrkiye\u2019ye yard\u0131ma ko\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki d\u00f6nemde jeo-siyasi gerilimlerin azalmas\u0131na ve T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin b\u00f6lgesel ili\u015fkilerinin iyile\u015fmesine sebep olabilece\u011fi s\u00f6ylenebilir. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k, Yunanistan\u2019\u0131n Ege Adalar\u0131\u2019ndaki stat\u00fcy\u00fc de\u011fi\u015ftirme \u00e7abalar\u0131na h\u0131z vermesi halinde ve \u00f6zellikle T\u00fcrkiye\u2019deki se\u00e7im eksenli i\u00e7 ihtilaflar g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcne al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda bu iyile\u015fme d\u00f6neminin k\u0131sa s\u00fcrece\u011fi s\u00f6ylenebilir.<\/li>\n
- Uluslararas\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lerin insani yard\u0131m \u00e7a\u011fr\u0131lar\u0131na h\u0131zla cevap vermesi, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin uluslararas\u0131 arenadaki yerinin yan\u0131nda, Ankara\u2019n\u0131n d\u0131\u015f politikas\u0131n\u0131n da ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6stermektedir. Zira Rusya, Bat\u0131 \u00fclkeleri, \u0130ran ve hatta \u0130srail dahil b\u00fct\u00fcn \u00fclkeler, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019deki arama kurtarma \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131na destek olmak i\u00e7in giri\u015fimler ba\u015flatm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. H\u00fck\u00fcmetin bu durumu, Erdo\u011fan\u2019\u0131n son zamanlarda s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc b\u00f6lgesel gerilimleri azaltma politikas\u0131na ba\u011flayarak, K\u00f6rfez \u00dclkeleri<\/a>, M\u0131s\u0131r, \u0130srail ve hatta Yunanistan\u2019\u0131n h\u0131zl\u0131 yard\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n bu politikan\u0131n \u00fcr\u00fcn\u00fc oldu\u011funu \u00f6ne s\u00fcrece\u011fi tahmin edilebilir.<\/li>\n
- Katar\u2019\u0131n deprem sonras\u0131 yeniden imar s\u00fcrecine etkin kat\u0131l\u0131m\u0131 kesin gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcnmekle birlikte, ba\u015fta Suudi Arabistan ve BAE olmak \u00fczere di\u011fer K\u00f6rfez \u00fclkelerinin tavr\u0131nda belirleyici olacak i\u015faretin yaln\u0131zca gerilimleri d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrme de\u011fil, ili\u015fkileri g\u00fc\u00e7lendirme imk\u00e2n\u0131 yarataca\u011f\u0131 s\u00f6ylenebilir. Hi\u00e7 \u015f\u00fcphesiz deprem sonras\u0131 yap\u0131lacak yeniden imar faaliyetlerinin maliyeti, h\u00fck\u00fcmetin son aylarda enflasyona kar\u015f\u0131 m\u00fccadele amac\u0131yla a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131\u011f\u0131 toplumsal ekonomik destek paketlerinin getirdi\u011fi y\u00fck\u00fc daha fazla art\u0131racakt\u0131r.<\/li>\n
- Deprem sonras\u0131 uluslararas\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lerin T\u00fcrkiye ile g\u00f6sterdi\u011fi dayan\u0131\u015fma, jeo-siyasi hesaplar\u0131n bir tarafa b\u0131rak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 anlam\u0131na gelmeyecektir. T\u00fcrkiye, Avrupa \u00fclkeleri ve ABD\u2019den gelecek deste\u011fi dikkatle takip edecek ve bu deste\u011fi, AB ve ABD\u2019den T\u00fcrkiye taraf\u0131ndan \u0130sve\u00e7\u2019in NATO\u2019ya kat\u0131l\u0131m\u0131 noktas\u0131nda g\u00f6sterilen tavr\u0131n de\u011fi\u015fmesi ve se\u00e7imler \u00f6ncesi i\u00e7 siyasete etki etmesi i\u00e7in g\u00f6nderilmi\u015f bir bask\u0131 mesaj\u0131 olarak anlamland\u0131racakt\u0131r. \u00c7in\u2019in tavr\u0131 belirsiz olmakla birlikte, Rusya\u2019n\u0131n deste\u011finin \u00f6zellikle Bat\u0131l\u0131lar\u0131n yetersiz kalmas\u0131 halinde T\u00fcrkiye\u2019ye y\u00f6nelebilece\u011fi unutulmamal\u0131d\u0131r. Belki Putin, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019ye mali yard\u0131m sa\u011flama g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc bulamayacak ancak \u00f6rne\u011fin do\u011fal gaz sevkiyat\u0131yla T\u00fcrkiye\u2019yi destekleyebilir. Hi\u00e7 \u015f\u00fcphesiz bu deste\u011fin \u00f6nemi mali destekten a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 olmayacakt\u0131r. Zira bu destek, h\u00fck\u00fcmete di\u011fer y\u00fcklerle u\u011fra\u015fmadan b\u00fct\u00e7esini do\u011frudan yeniden imar faaliyetlerini h\u0131zland\u0131rmaya y\u00f6neltmesini sa\u011flayabilir.<\/li>\n
- Depremin etkisiyle Suriye\u2019nin kuzeybat\u0131s\u0131ndaki b\u00f6lgelerde bulunan zay\u0131f y\u00f6netimin sars\u0131lma ihtimali g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcne al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, s\u00f6z konusu b\u00f6lgede de toplumsal istikrar\u0131 zedeleyen geli\u015fmelerin ya\u015fanabilece\u011fi s\u00f6ylenebilir. Deprem, Suriye\u2019de en fazla \u0130dlib ve Halep\u2019i etkiledi. \u0130dlib, Heyet Tahriru\u2019\u015f \u015eam\u2019\u0131n (HT\u015e) kontrol\u00fcnde bulunurken Halep ise Esed rejimi ve T\u00fcrkiye destekli Suriye Milli Ordusu (SMO) aras\u0131nda b\u00f6l\u00fcnm\u00fc\u015f durumda. S\u00f6z konusu b\u00f6lgede, ge\u00e7imini b\u00fcy\u00fck oranda T\u00fcrkiye \u00fczerinden gelen insani yard\u0131mlarla sa\u011flayan b\u00fcy\u00fck bir n\u00fcfus ya\u015famaktad\u0131r. Ancak, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin deprem sonras\u0131 kendi \u015fehirleriyle me\u015fgul olmas\u0131 ve uluslararas\u0131 yard\u0131mlar\u0131n b\u00f6lgeye ula\u015fmakta gecikmesi y\u00fcz\u00fcnden uluslararas\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lerin Halep ve \u0130dlib\u2019deki insanlar\u0131n ihtiya\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131lama noktas\u0131nda yetersiz kalmas\u0131na sebep olmu\u015ftur. Bu da b\u00f6lgede zaten hassas durumdaki toplumsal istikrar\u0131 tehlikeye atabilir.<\/li>\n
- 6 \u015eubat depremi, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin himayesi alt\u0131nda bulunan Suriye\u2019nin kuzeyindeki b\u00f6lgelerde de b\u00fcy\u00fck bir y\u0131k\u0131ma sebep olmu\u015ftur. Bu durum, h\u00fck\u00fcmetin \u0131rk\u00e7\u0131 bask\u0131lar\u0131n se\u00e7imlere etki etmemesi amac\u0131yla T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de ya\u015fayan ve say\u0131lar\u0131 3.6 milyonu bulan Suriyeli m\u00fcltecileri bu b\u00f6lgede iskan etme plan\u0131n\u0131 uygulama \u015fans\u0131n\u0131 azaltmaktad\u0131r. T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de depremden etkilenen illerden ba\u015fka illere yo\u011fun i\u00e7 g\u00f6\u00e7\u00fcn ya\u015fanmas\u0131 ve Suriye\u2019nin kuzeyindeki b\u00f6lgelerdeki insani dram\u0131n yo\u011funla\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n g\u00f6lgesinde, T\u00fcrkiye muhalefetinin daha \u00f6nce oldu\u011fu gibi deprem s\u00fcrecinde de m\u00fclteciler meselesini h\u00fck\u00fcmetin aleyhine kullanmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015faca\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ok muhtemel g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Bununla birlikte, m\u00fclteci ve yabanc\u0131 d\u00fc\u015fman\u0131 \u0131rk\u00e7\u0131 s\u00f6ylemler, baz\u0131 muhalif partilerin ajandas\u0131ndaki yerini de koruyacakt\u0131r. Bu da h\u00fck\u00fcmetin yabanc\u0131lar ve m\u00fcltecilerle ilgili ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz y\u0131l ba\u015flatt\u0131\u011f\u0131 yasal ad\u0131mlardan vazge\u00e7mesi ihtimalini zay\u0131flatacakt\u0131r.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Merkez \u00fcss\u00fc Kahramanmara\u015f\u2019\u0131n Pazarc\u0131k il\u00e7esi olmak \u00fczere, 6 \u015eubat 2023 tarihinde meydana gelen ve T\u00fcrkiye ile Suriye\u2019de geni\u015f alanlarda y\u0131k\u0131ma sebep olan depremin sebep oldu\u011fu sonu\u00e7lara ili\u015fkin bir tahminde bulunmak i\u00e7in hen\u00fcz erken oldu\u011fu s\u00f6ylenebilir. T\u00fcrkiye\u2019deki <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":35767,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","ngg_post_thumbnail":0},"categories":[18924],"tags":[],"asf_pub_issue":[],"asf_pub_region":[17601],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/35766"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=35766"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/35766\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":35779,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/35766\/revisions\/35779"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/35767"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=35766"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=35766"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=35766"},{"taxonomy":"asf_pub_issue","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/asf_pub_issue?post=35766"},{"taxonomy":"asf_pub_region","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/asf_pub_region?post=35766"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}
G\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f Raporu<\/a> \/ \/ <\/h6><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div>(Bu yaz\u0131 <\/em><\/strong>Asbab<\/em><\/strong><\/a><\/span> ile ortak bir \u015fekilde haz\u0131rlanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r.)<\/em><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n\u00d6zet:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n- Merkez \u00fcss\u00fc Kahramanmara\u015f\u2019\u0131n Pazarc\u0131k il\u00e7esi olmak \u00fczere, 6 \u015eubat 2023 tarihinde meydana gelen ve T\u00fcrkiye ile Suriye\u2019de geni\u015f alanlarda y\u0131k\u0131ma sebep olan depremin sebep oldu\u011fu sonu\u00e7lara ili\u015fkin bir tahminde bulunmak i\u00e7in hen\u00fcz erken oldu\u011fu s\u00f6ylenebilir. T\u00fcrkiye\u2019deki Cumhurba\u015fkanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 se\u00e7imlerine \u00e7ok k\u0131sa bir s\u00fcre kalm\u0131\u015fken meydana gelen bu deprem, i\u00e7 siyasetteki belirsizli\u011fi art\u0131rm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Zira se\u00e7imlerin ertelenmesi se\u00e7ene\u011fi h\u00e2l\u00e2 masadad\u0131r. Cumhurba\u015fkan\u0131 Recep Tayyip Erdo\u011fan, 20 y\u0131ll\u0131k iktidar\u0131n\u0131n en zor zamanlar\u0131n\u0131 ge\u00e7irirken ve b\u00fct\u00fcn enerjisini afet y\u00f6netimine harcam\u0131\u015fken, yeniden se\u00e7ilme \u015fans\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rmak i\u00e7in bu \u00e7abalar\u0131n\u0131n merkezine yeniden imar\u0131 ve erken iyile\u015fmeyi koyacakt\u0131r.<\/li>\n
- Se\u00e7imlerin ertelenmesi ihtimal dahilindedir. B\u00f6yle bir durumda iki etmen \u00fczerinde durulabilir. Bunlardan birincisi, altyap\u0131n\u0131n zarar g\u00f6rmesi ve y\u00fczbinlerce insan\u0131n ba\u015fka illere gitmek zorunda kalmas\u0131yla ili\u015fkili olan yap\u0131sal etmendir. \u0130kincisi ise iktidar partisinin depreme haz\u0131r olma seviyesine ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak kamuoyunda olu\u015fan g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f farkl\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendirmesi ve iktidar\u0131n i\u00e7inde bulundu\u011fu ittifak\u0131n kamuoyu deste\u011fini olumsuz etkileyecek bir ekonomik yans\u0131mayla ili\u015fkili etmendir.<\/li>\n
- Depremde zarar g\u00f6ren iller, toplam Gayri Safi Yurt \u0130\u00e7i Has\u0131lan\u0131n (GSYH) y\u00fczde 9\u2019unu olu\u015fturmaktad\u0131r. Bununla birlikte, ticaret ve sanayi merkezleri olan \u0130stanbul, Ankara, \u0130zmir, Bursa ve Kocaeli gibi illerin depremden etkilenmemi\u015f olmas\u0131, ekonomik zarar\u0131n da \u00e7ok uzun vadeli olmayaca\u011f\u0131 de\u011ferlendirmesini yapmaya imk\u00e2n tan\u0131maktad\u0131r. Ayr\u0131ca, \u0130stanbul, Antalya ve Edirne gibi turizm merkezlerinin de zarar g\u00f6rmemesi g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcne al\u0131nmal\u0131d\u0131r.<\/li>\n
- Orta vadede depremin sebep oldu\u011fu ekonomik kay\u0131plar hakk\u0131nda bir fikre varmak i\u00e7in erken oldu\u011fu s\u00f6ylenebilir. Yan\u0131 s\u0131ra, s\u00f6z konusu kayb\u0131n getirece\u011fi y\u00fck\u00fcn a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131\u011f\u0131 da Ankara\u2019n\u0131n yeniden imar i\u00e7in ba\u015flataca\u011f\u0131 \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmalara gelecek d\u0131\u015f deste\u011fe ba\u011fl\u0131 olacakt\u0131r. Bu deste\u011fin b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00e7o\u011funlu\u011funun K\u00f6rfez \u00fclkeleri, Avrupa Birli\u011fi (AB) ve ABD\u2019den gelece\u011fi beklenmektedir. Ayr\u0131ca, \u00c7in ve Rusya\u2019n\u0131n da Ankara\u2019ya bu anlamda destek vermesi muhtemeldir.<\/li>\n
- Deprem sonras\u0131 uluslararas\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lerin T\u00fcrkiye ile g\u00f6sterdi\u011fi dayan\u0131\u015fma, jeo-siyasi hesaplar\u0131n bir tarafa b\u0131rak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 anlam\u0131na gelmeyecektir. T\u00fcrkiye, Avrupa \u00fclkeleri ve ABD\u2019den gelecek deste\u011fi dikkatle takip edecek ve bu deste\u011fe siyasi bir mesaj g\u00f6z\u00fcyle bakacakt\u0131r. \u00c7in\u2019in tavr\u0131 belirsiz olmakla birlikte, Rusya\u2019n\u0131n deste\u011finin \u00f6zellikle Bat\u0131l\u0131lar\u0131n yetersiz kalmas\u0131 halinde T\u00fcrkiye\u2019ye y\u00f6nelebilece\u011fi unutulmamal\u0131d\u0131r. Katar\u2019\u0131n bu s\u00fcrece etkin bir \u015fekilde kat\u0131laca\u011f\u0131 beklenmektedir. Suudi Arabistan ve Birle\u015fik Arap Emirlikleri\u2019nin (BAE) bu s\u00fcrece kat\u0131l\u0131m\u0131 da T\u00fcrkiye ile olan stratejik ili\u015fkilerine ne kadar \u00f6nem verdiklerine dair ipucu verecektir.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
Giri\u015f:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n- T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin g\u00fcneydo\u011fu illeri ile Suriye\u2019nin kuzeybat\u0131s\u0131ndaki b\u00f6lgeler, 6 \u015eubat 2023 g\u00fcn\u00fc pe\u015f pe\u015fe meydana gelen iki b\u00fcy\u00fck depremle sars\u0131ld\u0131. Kahramanmara\u015f\u2019\u0131n Pazarc\u0131k il\u00e7esi merkezli ilk depremin \u015fiddeti, 7.7 olarak \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcl\u00fcrken, birka\u00e7 saat sonra yine Kahramanmara\u015f\u2019\u0131n Elbistan il\u00e7esi merkezli olmak \u00fczere meydana gelen ikinci depremin \u015fiddeti ise 7.6 olarak \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcr. Bununla birlikte, merkez \u00fcss\u00fc Gaziantep\u2019in \u0130slahiye il\u00e7esi olmak \u00fczere 6.5 b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde bir deprem daha meydana gelmi\u015ftir. T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin son 100 y\u0131lda ya\u015fad\u0131\u011f\u0131 en b\u00fcy\u00fck depremler olarak kay\u0131tlara ge\u00e7en bu depremler, b\u00fcy\u00fck bir felakete sebep olarak \u015fu ana kadar 41 bini a\u015fk\u0131n insan\u0131n \u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcyle sonu\u00e7lanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Suriye genelindeki \u00f6l\u00fc say\u0131s\u0131 ise resmi rakamlara g\u00f6re \u015fu ana kadar 5 bin 800 civar\u0131ndad\u0131r. Otoyol ve havalimanlar\u0131nda da b\u00fcy\u00fck hasarlar meydana gelirken, T\u00fcrkiye h\u00fck\u00fcmeti taraf\u0131ndan deprem b\u00f6lgelerindeki 85 bin binan\u0131n y\u0131k\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 (ya da y\u0131k\u0131lmak \u00fczere oldu\u011fu) 121 bin 515 binan\u0131n ise k\u0131smen hasar g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fcn tespit edildi\u011fi ilan edildi. H\u00fck\u00fcmet, ayr\u0131ca depremin y\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131 10 ilde (Kahramanmara\u015f, Ad\u0131yaman, Malatya, Kilis, Gaziantep, Osmaniye, \u015eanl\u0131urfa, Adana, Diyarbak\u0131r ve Hatay) 3 ayl\u0131\u011f\u0131na Ola\u011fan\u00fcst\u00fc Hal (OHAL) ilan etti.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
<\/strong>Toz Bulutlar\u0131 Da\u011f\u0131ld\u0131ktan Sonra: Yerel Belirsizlik ve D\u0131\u015f S\u00fck\u00fbnet<\/strong><\/p>\n\n- B\u00fcy\u00fck do\u011fal afetlerin her zaman h\u00fck\u00fcmetlerin planlamalar\u0131 d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda yerel ve jeo-siyasi sonu\u00e7lar\u0131 olmu\u015ftur. Fakat bu sonu\u00e7lar tek y\u00f6nl\u00fc de\u011fildir; muhalefetin afeti h\u00fck\u00fcmetin yeterlili\u011fine dair \u015f\u00fcphe olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in kullanma imk\u00e2n\u0131 oldu\u011fu kadar, h\u00fck\u00fcmetin de devletin g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc kendisini kamuoyuna afetle m\u00fccadele eden g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir h\u00fck\u00fcmet olarak takdim etmekte kullanma imk\u00e2n\u0131 vard\u0131r. T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de bu konuda ya\u015fanan bir \u00f6rne\u011fe bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda, 1999 y\u0131l\u0131ndaki G\u00f6lc\u00fck depreminin ard\u0131ndan B\u00fclent Ecevit h\u00fck\u00fcmetine felaket sonras\u0131n\u0131 do\u011fru y\u00f6netememek noktas\u0131nda ithamlar y\u00f6neltilmi\u015ftir. S\u00f6z konusu deprem, o d\u00f6nem ciddi bir ekonomik krizin i\u00e7inden ge\u00e7en T\u00fcrkiye\u2019ye b\u00fcy\u00fck ekonomik zararlar vermi\u015ftir. Depremin etkileri, h\u00fck\u00fcmetin g\u00fc\u00e7s\u00fczl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcne ve ekonomik ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131zl\u0131\u011f\u0131na \u0131\u015f\u0131k tutarken, 2002 y\u0131l\u0131nda Adalet ve Kalk\u0131nma Partisi\u2019ni iktidara getiren erken se\u00e7imlerin de \u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7m\u0131\u015ft\u0131r denebilir.<\/li>\n
- Bug\u00fcn ise T\u00fcrkiye, belirleyici bir Cumhurba\u015fkanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve Parlamento se\u00e7imlerinin e\u015fi\u011finde bulunmaktad\u0131r. H\u00fck\u00fcmet, se\u00e7imleri May\u0131s ay\u0131 ortas\u0131nda yapmaya haz\u0131rlan\u0131yordu. Kahramanmara\u015f depremi ise bu se\u00e7imlerin zaten \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclemeyen sonu\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7ok daha belirsiz h\u00e2le getirmi\u015ftir. Zira, se\u00e7menlerin h\u00fcz\u00fcn ve \u00f6fke duygular\u0131yla h\u00fck\u00fcmeti d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrme y\u00f6n\u00fcnde oy kullanmas\u0131 olas\u0131d\u0131r. \u00d6te yandan, h\u00fck\u00fcmetin de felakete kar\u015f\u0131 yeterli olmas\u0131 h\u00e2linde se\u00e7menler i\u00e7in g\u00fcvenilir bir taraf olma ihtimali de bulunmaktad\u0131r.<\/li>\n
- A\u015fa\u011f\u0131da, felaketin ekonomi, yerel siyaset ve jeo-siyaset eksenindeki sonu\u00e7lar\u0131na dair de\u011ferlendirmemizi ifade etmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015faca\u011f\u0131z.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
Birincisi: Ekonomik Sonu\u00e7lar<\/strong><\/p>\n\n- Depremin vurdu\u011fu 10 il, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin toplam n\u00fcfusunun y\u00fczde 15\u2019ini olu\u015fturmaktad\u0131r (13.5 milyon civar\u0131nda) ancak di\u011fer illere k\u0131yasla daha fakir iller oldu\u011fu s\u00f6ylenebilir. Bu iller, GSYH\u2019nin y\u00fczde 9\u2019unu olu\u015ftururken, bunun y\u00fczde 15\u2019ini ziraat, y\u00fczde 9\u2019unu sanayi ve y\u00fczde 8\u2019ini d\u0131\u015f ticaret olu\u015fturmaktad\u0131r.<\/li>\n
- Deprem b\u00f6lgelerindeki iller, ekonomik olarak nispeten de olsa \u00f6nem ta\u015f\u0131makla birlikte, ilk de\u011ferlendirmeler depremin ekonomik etkisinin s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kalaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ifade etmektedir. T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de GSYH\u2019nin y\u00fczde 53\u2019\u00fcn\u00fc olu\u015fturan<\/a> ve \u00fclkenin en b\u00fcy\u00fck 5 \u015fehri olan \u0130stanbul, Ankara, \u0130zmir, Bursa ve Kocaeli\u2019nin yan\u0131 s\u0131ra, \u0130stanbul ile birlikte \u00fclkenin turizm gelirinin y\u00fczde 76\u2019s\u0131n\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131layan<\/a> Antalya ve Edirne de depremden etkilenmemi\u015ftir. Afet b\u00f6lgesi olarak ilan edilen b\u00f6lgede bile (ziraat gibi) baz\u0131 \u00fcretim alanlar\u0131 depremden etkilenmemi\u015ftir. Stratejik altyap\u0131n\u0131n u\u011frad\u0131\u011f\u0131 zarar ise uzun vadeli g\u00f6z\u00fckmemektedir. Hatay Havaliman\u0131\u2019ndaki y\u0131k\u0131m (k\u0131sa s\u00fcrede yeniden hizmete a\u00e7\u0131lm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r) ve \u0130skenderun liman\u0131ndaki yang\u0131n haricinde, b\u00f6lgedeki lojistik merkezler, anayollar, petrol rafinerileri ve havalimanlar\u0131nda b\u00fcy\u00fck hasarlar kaydedilmemi\u015ftir.<\/li>\n
- Felaketin ve temel maddelerin felaket b\u00f6lgesine y\u00f6nlendirilmesinin k\u0131sa vadede h\u00fck\u00fcmetin enflasyonu kontrol etme \u00e7abalar\u0131n\u0131<\/a> etkileyece\u011fi s\u00f6ylenebilir. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k se\u00e7imlere yakla\u015f\u0131l\u0131rken \u00f6deme b\u00fct\u00e7esinin deprem b\u00f6lgelerindeki yard\u0131m ve imar i\u00e7in g\u00f6nderilen yard\u0131mlarla desteklenece\u011fi tahmin edilmektedir. Ancak se\u00e7im sonras\u0131 h\u00fck\u00fcmet ve Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (MB) \u00fclkedeki d\u00f6viz fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n iyile\u015ftirilmesine ihtiya\u00e7 duyaca\u011f\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fclmektedir.<\/li>\n
- H\u00fck\u00fcmetin tahminlerine uygun olarak depremin T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de y\u00fczde 3.5 oran\u0131nda bir GSYH b\u00fct\u00e7e a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 vermesine neden olaca\u011f\u0131 tahmin edilmektedir. Gelen d\u0131\u015f destek ise bu oran\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131lamaktad\u0131r. Yurt i\u00e7i kalk\u0131nman\u0131n da depremden etkilenece\u011fi tahmin edilirken, bu etkinin y\u00fczde 3.3 daralmaya sebep olan 1999 depreminin aksine Avrupa \u0130n\u015fa ve \u0130mar Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (EBRD) makul bir seviye olarak a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131\u011f\u0131 y\u00fczde 1 oran\u0131nda kalmas\u0131 beklenmektedir.<\/a> Yeniden imar \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131n\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7lendirilmesinin ise depremin altyap\u0131 ve tedarik hatlar\u0131nda sebep oldu\u011fu zarar\u0131 telafi edece\u011fi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fclmektedir. Zira yeniden in\u015fa \u00fcretimin de g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesi anlam\u0131na gelebilmektedir. 1995 y\u0131l\u0131nda K\u00fcba\u2019da, 2004 y\u0131l\u0131nda Japonya\u2019da ve 2010 y\u0131l\u0131nda \u015eili\u2019de oldu\u011fu gibi ekonomilerin afet sebebiyle u\u011frad\u0131\u011f\u0131 zararlar\u0131 k\u0131sa s\u00fcrede telafi etti\u011fi daha \u00f6nce g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcr.<\/li>\n
- Bunlar\u0131n yan\u0131 s\u0131ra, deprem sonras\u0131 hasar tespit \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131n\u0131n bile hen\u00fcz sona ermedi\u011fi ve depremin sebep oldu\u011fu ekonomik zarar konusunda kesin bir de\u011ferlendirme yap\u0131lmas\u0131 i\u00e7in hen\u00fcz erken oldu\u011fu g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcnde bulundurulmal\u0131d\u0131r. Bu durum, \u00e7e\u015fitli taraflar\u0131n \u00f6ne s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc tahminlerin ge\u00e7i\u015fkenlik g\u00f6stermesine sebep olmaktad\u0131r. \u00d6rne\u011fin; T\u00fcrkiye Giri\u015fim ve \u0130\u015f D\u00fcnyas\u0131 Konfederasyonu (T\u00dcRKONFED) depremin etkisiyle binalar\u0131n y\u0131k\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131n 70.8 milyar dolarl\u0131k bir mali zarara sebep oldu\u011funu, milli gelirin ise 10.4 milyar dolar azald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 tahmin etmektedir. Deprem ayr\u0131ca, i\u015f d\u00fcnyas\u0131na da 2.9 milyar dolarl\u0131k bir zarar getirmi\u015ftir. Ba\u015fka taraflar, zarar\u0131n boyutlar\u0131n\u0131n daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck oldu\u011funu ifade ederken T\u00dcRKONFED taraf\u0131ndan yap\u0131lan 84 milyar dolar civar\u0131ndaki bu tahmin soru i\u015faretlerini beraberinde getirmektedir. \u00d6rnek vermek gerekirse, JPMorgan Bankas\u0131<\/a> kayb\u0131n 25 milyar dolar civar\u0131nda kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ne s\u00fcrerken, Barclays Investment Bank ise hen\u00fcz bir tahminde bulunmak i\u00e7in erken oldu\u011funu dile getirmi\u015ftir.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
<\/strong>\u0130kincisi: \u0130\u00e7 Siyaset ve Se\u00e7imlere Yans\u0131malar\u0131<\/strong><\/p>\n\n- B\u00fcy\u00fck bir y\u0131k\u0131ma neden olan depremin ard\u0131ndan T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin k\u0131sa bir birlik ve dayan\u0131\u015fma s\u00fcreci ge\u00e7irece\u011fi s\u00f6ylenebilir. Ancak muhalefetin, AK Parti taraf\u0131ndan s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclen asgari \u00fccret zamm\u0131 ve politika faizinin d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fclmesi gibi ekonomik geni\u015fleme program\u0131n\u0131n ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131z oldu\u011funu g\u00fcndeme getirmek i\u00e7in f\u0131rsat kollayaca\u011f\u0131 da tahmin edilebilir. Bu T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin depremin sebep oldu\u011fu milyarca dolarl\u0131k zarar\u0131 telafi etme g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc etkileyecektir. \u00d6te yandan, d\u0131\u015f yard\u0131mlar\u0131n zarar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131lamaktan uzak kalmas\u0131 halinde muhalefetin tezleri g\u00fc\u00e7lenirken, T\u00fcrkiye yeniden imar\u0131n getirdi\u011fi y\u00fck\u00fc tek ba\u015f\u0131na s\u0131rtlamak zorunda kalabilir.<\/li>\n
- Buna ek olarak, binalar\u0131n depreme dayan\u0131kl\u0131l\u0131k kriterlerine uyumlu olmamas\u0131n\u0131n depremdeki can kay\u0131plar\u0131n\u0131n artmas\u0131na sebep oldu\u011funa ili\u015fkin raporlar da muhalefet a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan kullan\u0131\u015fl\u0131 olarak g\u00f6z\u00fckmektedir. Ayr\u0131ca, baz\u0131 kurban yak\u0131nlar\u0131n\u0131n zaman i\u00e7inde ya\u015fanan kay\u0131plar\u0131 h\u00fck\u00fcmet ve belediyelerin m\u00fcteahhit firmalar\u0131n deprem y\u00f6netmeli\u011finden ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f\u0131na yard\u0131m etti\u011fi iddialar\u0131n\u0131 dillendirmeye ba\u015flamas\u0131 da bu imk\u00e2n\u0131 muhalefete verebilir. Bu sebeple, T\u00fcrkiye h\u00fck\u00fcmetinin onlarca m\u00fcteahhidi g\u00f6zalt\u0131na alarak, deprem y\u00f6netmeli\u011fine ayk\u0131r\u0131 yap\u0131lm\u0131\u015f binalar hakk\u0131nda soru\u015fturmalar a\u00e7t\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcr.<\/li>\n
- \u015eehirlerin altyap\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fck zararlara u\u011framas\u0131 ve y\u00fczbinlerce, hatta milyonlarca insan\u0131n yer de\u011fi\u015ftirmek zorunda kalmas\u0131n\u0131n g\u00f6lgesinde, deprem nedeniyle se\u00e7imlerin ertelenmesi se\u00e7ene\u011finin h\u00e2l\u00e2 muhtemel oldu\u011fu g\u00f6r\u00fclmektedir. Se\u00e7imlerin ertelenmesi fikrinin AK Parti\u2019nin kamuoyundaki tepkileri \u00f6l\u00e7erek lehte ya da aleyhte bir durum de\u011ferlendirmesi yapmas\u0131yla ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 oldu\u011fu \u00f6ne s\u00fcr\u00fclmektedir.<\/li>\n
- Bu zorlu \u015fartlar alt\u0131nda, Cumhurba\u015fkan\u0131 Recep Tayyip Erdo\u011fan\u2019\u0131n 20 y\u0131ll\u0131k iktidar\u0131n\u0131n en zorlu se\u00e7imiyle kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya oldu\u011fu s\u00f6ylenebilir. Bununla birlikte Erdo\u011fan, adeti oldu\u011fu \u00fczere se\u00e7imleri kazanma ihtimalini g\u00fc\u00e7lendirmek i\u00e7in giri\u015fken olmaya ve felaketin yaralar\u0131n\u0131 erkenden sarmak i\u00e7in \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmaya devam edecektir. Ulusal medyan\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fck k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131n AK Parti kontrol\u00fcnde olmas\u0131 da onun bu \u00e7abalar\u0131n\u0131 halka yans\u0131tmas\u0131na yard\u0131mc\u0131 olacakt\u0131r. Bu noktada, Erdo\u011fan\u2019\u0131n 2021 yaz\u0131nda meydana gelen orman yang\u0131nlar\u0131n\u0131n aksine bu depremde \u201cD\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fc Derece Alarm Seviyesi\u201dni h\u0131zl\u0131ca harekete ge\u00e7irdi\u011fi g\u00f6ze \u00e7arpm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
\u00dc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fcs\u00fc: Jeo-Siyasi Yans\u0131malar<\/strong> <\/strong><\/p>\n\n- Fransa ve Yunanistan gibi T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin son zamanlarda jeo-siyasi gerilimler ya\u015fad\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00fclkeler dahil<\/a> b\u00f6lgesel m\u00fcttefikler ve akt\u00f6rlerin deprem sonras\u0131 h\u0131zl\u0131ca T\u00fcrkiye\u2019ye yard\u0131ma ko\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki d\u00f6nemde jeo-siyasi gerilimlerin azalmas\u0131na ve T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin b\u00f6lgesel ili\u015fkilerinin iyile\u015fmesine sebep olabilece\u011fi s\u00f6ylenebilir. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k, Yunanistan\u2019\u0131n Ege Adalar\u0131\u2019ndaki stat\u00fcy\u00fc de\u011fi\u015ftirme \u00e7abalar\u0131na h\u0131z vermesi halinde ve \u00f6zellikle T\u00fcrkiye\u2019deki se\u00e7im eksenli i\u00e7 ihtilaflar g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcne al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda bu iyile\u015fme d\u00f6neminin k\u0131sa s\u00fcrece\u011fi s\u00f6ylenebilir.<\/li>\n
- Uluslararas\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lerin insani yard\u0131m \u00e7a\u011fr\u0131lar\u0131na h\u0131zla cevap vermesi, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin uluslararas\u0131 arenadaki yerinin yan\u0131nda, Ankara\u2019n\u0131n d\u0131\u015f politikas\u0131n\u0131n da ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6stermektedir. Zira Rusya, Bat\u0131 \u00fclkeleri, \u0130ran ve hatta \u0130srail dahil b\u00fct\u00fcn \u00fclkeler, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019deki arama kurtarma \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131na destek olmak i\u00e7in giri\u015fimler ba\u015flatm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. H\u00fck\u00fcmetin bu durumu, Erdo\u011fan\u2019\u0131n son zamanlarda s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc b\u00f6lgesel gerilimleri azaltma politikas\u0131na ba\u011flayarak, K\u00f6rfez \u00dclkeleri<\/a>, M\u0131s\u0131r, \u0130srail ve hatta Yunanistan\u2019\u0131n h\u0131zl\u0131 yard\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n bu politikan\u0131n \u00fcr\u00fcn\u00fc oldu\u011funu \u00f6ne s\u00fcrece\u011fi tahmin edilebilir.<\/li>\n
- Katar\u2019\u0131n deprem sonras\u0131 yeniden imar s\u00fcrecine etkin kat\u0131l\u0131m\u0131 kesin gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcnmekle birlikte, ba\u015fta Suudi Arabistan ve BAE olmak \u00fczere di\u011fer K\u00f6rfez \u00fclkelerinin tavr\u0131nda belirleyici olacak i\u015faretin yaln\u0131zca gerilimleri d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrme de\u011fil, ili\u015fkileri g\u00fc\u00e7lendirme imk\u00e2n\u0131 yarataca\u011f\u0131 s\u00f6ylenebilir. Hi\u00e7 \u015f\u00fcphesiz deprem sonras\u0131 yap\u0131lacak yeniden imar faaliyetlerinin maliyeti, h\u00fck\u00fcmetin son aylarda enflasyona kar\u015f\u0131 m\u00fccadele amac\u0131yla a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131\u011f\u0131 toplumsal ekonomik destek paketlerinin getirdi\u011fi y\u00fck\u00fc daha fazla art\u0131racakt\u0131r.<\/li>\n
- Deprem sonras\u0131 uluslararas\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lerin T\u00fcrkiye ile g\u00f6sterdi\u011fi dayan\u0131\u015fma, jeo-siyasi hesaplar\u0131n bir tarafa b\u0131rak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 anlam\u0131na gelmeyecektir. T\u00fcrkiye, Avrupa \u00fclkeleri ve ABD\u2019den gelecek deste\u011fi dikkatle takip edecek ve bu deste\u011fi, AB ve ABD\u2019den T\u00fcrkiye taraf\u0131ndan \u0130sve\u00e7\u2019in NATO\u2019ya kat\u0131l\u0131m\u0131 noktas\u0131nda g\u00f6sterilen tavr\u0131n de\u011fi\u015fmesi ve se\u00e7imler \u00f6ncesi i\u00e7 siyasete etki etmesi i\u00e7in g\u00f6nderilmi\u015f bir bask\u0131 mesaj\u0131 olarak anlamland\u0131racakt\u0131r. \u00c7in\u2019in tavr\u0131 belirsiz olmakla birlikte, Rusya\u2019n\u0131n deste\u011finin \u00f6zellikle Bat\u0131l\u0131lar\u0131n yetersiz kalmas\u0131 halinde T\u00fcrkiye\u2019ye y\u00f6nelebilece\u011fi unutulmamal\u0131d\u0131r. Belki Putin, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019ye mali yard\u0131m sa\u011flama g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc bulamayacak ancak \u00f6rne\u011fin do\u011fal gaz sevkiyat\u0131yla T\u00fcrkiye\u2019yi destekleyebilir. Hi\u00e7 \u015f\u00fcphesiz bu deste\u011fin \u00f6nemi mali destekten a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 olmayacakt\u0131r. Zira bu destek, h\u00fck\u00fcmete di\u011fer y\u00fcklerle u\u011fra\u015fmadan b\u00fct\u00e7esini do\u011frudan yeniden imar faaliyetlerini h\u0131zland\u0131rmaya y\u00f6neltmesini sa\u011flayabilir.<\/li>\n
- Depremin etkisiyle Suriye\u2019nin kuzeybat\u0131s\u0131ndaki b\u00f6lgelerde bulunan zay\u0131f y\u00f6netimin sars\u0131lma ihtimali g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcne al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, s\u00f6z konusu b\u00f6lgede de toplumsal istikrar\u0131 zedeleyen geli\u015fmelerin ya\u015fanabilece\u011fi s\u00f6ylenebilir. Deprem, Suriye\u2019de en fazla \u0130dlib ve Halep\u2019i etkiledi. \u0130dlib, Heyet Tahriru\u2019\u015f \u015eam\u2019\u0131n (HT\u015e) kontrol\u00fcnde bulunurken Halep ise Esed rejimi ve T\u00fcrkiye destekli Suriye Milli Ordusu (SMO) aras\u0131nda b\u00f6l\u00fcnm\u00fc\u015f durumda. S\u00f6z konusu b\u00f6lgede, ge\u00e7imini b\u00fcy\u00fck oranda T\u00fcrkiye \u00fczerinden gelen insani yard\u0131mlarla sa\u011flayan b\u00fcy\u00fck bir n\u00fcfus ya\u015famaktad\u0131r. Ancak, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin deprem sonras\u0131 kendi \u015fehirleriyle me\u015fgul olmas\u0131 ve uluslararas\u0131 yard\u0131mlar\u0131n b\u00f6lgeye ula\u015fmakta gecikmesi y\u00fcz\u00fcnden uluslararas\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lerin Halep ve \u0130dlib\u2019deki insanlar\u0131n ihtiya\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131lama noktas\u0131nda yetersiz kalmas\u0131na sebep olmu\u015ftur. Bu da b\u00f6lgede zaten hassas durumdaki toplumsal istikrar\u0131 tehlikeye atabilir.<\/li>\n
- 6 \u015eubat depremi, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin himayesi alt\u0131nda bulunan Suriye\u2019nin kuzeyindeki b\u00f6lgelerde de b\u00fcy\u00fck bir y\u0131k\u0131ma sebep olmu\u015ftur. Bu durum, h\u00fck\u00fcmetin \u0131rk\u00e7\u0131 bask\u0131lar\u0131n se\u00e7imlere etki etmemesi amac\u0131yla T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de ya\u015fayan ve say\u0131lar\u0131 3.6 milyonu bulan Suriyeli m\u00fcltecileri bu b\u00f6lgede iskan etme plan\u0131n\u0131 uygulama \u015fans\u0131n\u0131 azaltmaktad\u0131r. T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de depremden etkilenen illerden ba\u015fka illere yo\u011fun i\u00e7 g\u00f6\u00e7\u00fcn ya\u015fanmas\u0131 ve Suriye\u2019nin kuzeyindeki b\u00f6lgelerdeki insani dram\u0131n yo\u011funla\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n g\u00f6lgesinde, T\u00fcrkiye muhalefetinin daha \u00f6nce oldu\u011fu gibi deprem s\u00fcrecinde de m\u00fclteciler meselesini h\u00fck\u00fcmetin aleyhine kullanmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015faca\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ok muhtemel g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Bununla birlikte, m\u00fclteci ve yabanc\u0131 d\u00fc\u015fman\u0131 \u0131rk\u00e7\u0131 s\u00f6ylemler, baz\u0131 muhalif partilerin ajandas\u0131ndaki yerini de koruyacakt\u0131r. Bu da h\u00fck\u00fcmetin yabanc\u0131lar ve m\u00fcltecilerle ilgili ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz y\u0131l ba\u015flatt\u0131\u011f\u0131 yasal ad\u0131mlardan vazge\u00e7mesi ihtimalini zay\u0131flatacakt\u0131r.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Merkez \u00fcss\u00fc Kahramanmara\u015f\u2019\u0131n Pazarc\u0131k il\u00e7esi olmak \u00fczere, 6 \u015eubat 2023 tarihinde meydana gelen ve T\u00fcrkiye ile Suriye\u2019de geni\u015f alanlarda y\u0131k\u0131ma sebep olan depremin sebep oldu\u011fu sonu\u00e7lara ili\u015fkin bir tahminde bulunmak i\u00e7in hen\u00fcz erken oldu\u011fu s\u00f6ylenebilir. T\u00fcrkiye\u2019deki <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":35767,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","ngg_post_thumbnail":0},"categories":[18924],"tags":[],"asf_pub_issue":[],"asf_pub_region":[17601],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/35766"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=35766"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/35766\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":35779,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/35766\/revisions\/35779"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/35767"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=35766"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=35766"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=35766"},{"taxonomy":"asf_pub_issue","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/asf_pub_issue?post=35766"},{"taxonomy":"asf_pub_region","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/asf_pub_region?post=35766"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}
(Bu yaz\u0131 <\/em><\/strong>Asbab<\/em><\/strong><\/a><\/span> ile ortak bir \u015fekilde haz\u0131rlanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r.)<\/em><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n \u00d6zet:<\/strong><\/p>\n Giri\u015f:<\/strong><\/p>\n <\/strong>Toz Bulutlar\u0131 Da\u011f\u0131ld\u0131ktan Sonra: Yerel Belirsizlik ve D\u0131\u015f S\u00fck\u00fbnet<\/strong><\/p>\n Birincisi: Ekonomik Sonu\u00e7lar<\/strong><\/p>\n <\/strong>\u0130kincisi: \u0130\u00e7 Siyaset ve Se\u00e7imlere Yans\u0131malar\u0131<\/strong><\/p>\n \u00dc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fcs\u00fc: Jeo-Siyasi Yans\u0131malar<\/strong> <\/strong><\/p>\n Merkez \u00fcss\u00fc Kahramanmara\u015f\u2019\u0131n Pazarc\u0131k il\u00e7esi olmak \u00fczere, 6 \u015eubat 2023 tarihinde meydana gelen ve T\u00fcrkiye ile Suriye\u2019de geni\u015f alanlarda y\u0131k\u0131ma sebep olan depremin sebep oldu\u011fu sonu\u00e7lara ili\u015fkin bir tahminde bulunmak i\u00e7in hen\u00fcz erken oldu\u011fu s\u00f6ylenebilir. T\u00fcrkiye\u2019deki <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":35767,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","ngg_post_thumbnail":0},"categories":[18924],"tags":[],"asf_pub_issue":[],"asf_pub_region":[17601],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/35766"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=35766"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/35766\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":35779,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/35766\/revisions\/35779"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/35767"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=35766"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=35766"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=35766"},{"taxonomy":"asf_pub_issue","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/asf_pub_issue?post=35766"},{"taxonomy":"asf_pub_region","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/asf_pub_region?post=35766"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}\n
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