![\"\"](\"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/Mehmet-Emin-150x150.jpeg\" "\\"\\"")
Mehmet Emin Cengiz<\/a> <\/i> 16 \u015eubat 2024<\/span><\/h6><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div>PDF \u0130ndir<\/span><\/a><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div>Uzman G\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fc<\/a> \/ \/ B\u00f6lgesel Politika<\/a><\/h6><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div>(Bu metin \u0130ngilizce orijinal versiyonundan terc\u00fcme edilmi\u015ftir.)<\/em><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\nGiri\u015f<\/strong><\/p>\n\u0130ran son aylarda hakk\u0131nda en \u00e7ok konu\u015fulan \u00fclkelerden biri. \u00dclkede 1979 y\u0131l\u0131nda ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen devrimle \u0130ran \u0130slam Cumhuriyeti’nin kurulmas\u0131ndan bu yana Tahran devrim ihrac\u0131 projesini ba\u015flatm\u0131\u015f ve resmi s\u00f6yleminin odak noktas\u0131na Filistin ve Kud\u00fcs’\u00fcn kurtulu\u015funu koymu\u015ftu. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla, Hamas’\u0131n Aksa Tufan\u0131 Operasyonu akabinde, Gazze \u0130srail taraf\u0131ndan tarumar edilirken ve Filistin \u00e7ok hararetli bir d\u00f6nemden ge\u00e7erken, siyasi g\u00fc\u00e7 merkezlerinde \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n ad\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6n plana \u00e7\u0131kmamas\u0131 beklenemezdi.<\/p>\n
Ne var ki \u0130ran, \u015fu ana kadar att\u0131\u011f\u0131 ad\u0131mlarla, muar\u0131zlar\u0131n\u0131n ele\u015ftirileri g\u00f6z ard\u0131 edilse dahi, m\u00fcttefiklerini dahi memnun edememi\u015f vaziyette ve ittifak a\u011flar\u0131nda belli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde bir hayal k\u0131r\u0131kl\u0131\u011f\u0131na sebebiyet vermi\u015f durumda. Tahran, Arap Bahar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131 ke\u015fmeke\u015fin sundu\u011fu f\u0131rsat pencerelerinden yararlanarak Suriye, Irak, Yemen ve Hizbullah \u00fczerinden L\u00fcbnan\u2019daki etkisini artt\u0131rm\u0131\u015f ve bahse konu \u00fclkelerin siyasetleri \u00fczerinde ciddi bir n\u00fcfuz-daha do\u011fru bir ibareyle tasallut veya vesayet-olu\u015fturmu\u015f halde. Bununla birlikte Gazze yerle yeksan edilirken Tahran sava\u015fa do\u011frudan do\u011fruya m\u00fcdahil olmayarak, devlet d\u0131\u015f\u0131 vekil \u00f6rg\u00fctleri \u00fczerinden \u0130srail ve ABD ile bir \u2018bilek g\u00fcre\u015fine\u2019 ya da g\u00fc\u00e7 m\u00fccadelesine giri\u015fti. B\u00f6ylesi bir s\u00fcre\u00e7te en \u00f6n plana \u00e7\u0131kan yap\u0131 ise Yemen\u2019deki Husiler oldu. Yapt\u0131klar\u0131 sald\u0131r\u0131larla K\u0131z\u0131ldeniz ve Bab\u00fclmendep Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndaki uluslararas\u0131 ticareti[i]<\/a> ciddi bir \u015fekilde etkileyen Husiler, ABD ve \u0130ngiltere\u2019nin gazab\u0131n\u0131 \u00fczerlerine \u00e7ekerek sald\u0131r\u0131lara[ii]<\/a> maruz kald\u0131lar. Buna ra\u011fmen, Tahran, Gazze kriziyle birlikte Husilerden adeta ikinci bir Hizbullah yaratma misyonunda \u00f6nemli oranda yol alm\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Daha a\u00e7\u0131k bir ifadeyle s\u00f6yleyecek olursak Arap Bahar\u0131 sonras\u0131nda Husiler\/Yemen Tahran i\u00e7in bir g\u00fcvenli kale haline geldi. Muhtelif medya organlar\u0131nda Husiler i\u00e7in kullan\u0131lan \u2018Yemen Silahl\u0131 Kuvvetleri\u2019 gibi yak\u0131\u015ft\u0131rmalar, yap\u0131n\u0131n me\u015fruiyet kazanma \u00e7abas\u0131nda a\u015fama kat etti\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\nTahran, mevcut hamlelerini yaparken de konforlu addedilebilecek bir alanda duruyor. Zira Tahran ittifak ili\u015fkisi i\u00e7erisinde oldu\u011fu silahl\u0131 \u00f6rg\u00fctlerin ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z \u015fekilde kararlar ald\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 iddia ederek, \u0130ran’\u0131n kimseye emir vermedi\u011fini belirtiyor. B\u00f6ylelikle makul ink\u00e2r edilebilirli\u011fe (plausible deniability) s\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131yor. B\u00f6ylesi bir strateji ile Tahran proksilerinin yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 eylemlerin ekonomik, siyasi, hukuki ve askeri sonu\u00e7lar\u0131ndan ka\u00e7\u0131nmaya \u00e7abal\u0131yor ancak bunda ne karar ba\u015far\u0131l\u0131 oldu\u011fu ayr\u0131 bir tart\u0131\u015fma konusu.<\/p>\n
\u0130ran Devrim Muhaf\u0131zlar\u0131 Ordusu ve Tahran Destekli Milisler Ate\u015f Alt\u0131nda<\/strong><\/p>\nTahran\u2019\u0131n \u0130srail ile do\u011frudan do\u011fruya sava\u015fa giri\u015fmemi\u015f olmas\u0131, Tel Aviv ve Washington\u2019u \u0130ran Devrim Muhaf\u0131zlar\u0131 Ordusu mensuplar\u0131n\u0131n yan\u0131 s\u0131ra Tahran destekli milisleri vurmaktan cayd\u0131rmad\u0131. Gazze sava\u015f\u0131n\u0131n ba\u015flang\u0131c\u0131ndan beri, ABD-\u0130srail ikilisi L\u00fcbnan, Irak, Suriye ve Yemen\u2019de \u0130ran destekli \u00fcst d\u00fczey fig\u00fcrleri hedef ald\u0131. Hamas Siyasi B\u00fcro Ba\u015fkan Yard\u0131mc\u0131s\u0131 Salih el-Aruri L\u00fcbnan’da suikasta[iii]<\/a> kurban giderken, Ha\u015fdi \u015eabi komutan\u0131 Ebu Takva es-Saidi[iv]<\/a> Irak’ta hedef al\u0131nd\u0131. Devrim Muhaf\u0131zlar\u0131 Generali R\u0131za Musevi ise \u015eam’da \u00f6ld\u00fcr\u00fcld\u00fc. Ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz g\u00fcnlerde \u0130ran’\u0131n kalelerinden[v]<\/a> biri olarak bilinen \u015eam’\u0131n Seyyide Zeyneb t\u00fcrbesi civar\u0131nda da aralar\u0131nda \u0130ran Devrim Muhaf\u0131zlar\u0131 Ordusu-Kud\u00fcs G\u00fcc\u00fc\u2019n\u00fcn Suriye istihbarat\u0131ndan sorumlu ismi Sad\u0131k \u00dcmidzade\u2019nin[vi]<\/a> de bulundu\u011fu 5 Devrim Muhaf\u0131z\u0131 \u00fcyesi \u00f6ld\u00fcr\u00fcld\u00fc. Burada \u015fu noktay\u0131 not etmek \u00f6nemli: Gazze sava\u015f\u0131 patlak verdikten sonra \u0130srail, \u0130ran\u2019a kar\u015f\u0131 bir strateji de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fine[vii]<\/a> gitmi\u015f durumda. Tel Aviv, sava\u015ftan \u00f6nce \u00f6rne\u011fin Suriye\u2019de \u0130ran’a ait depo, donan\u0131m vb. yerleri hedef al\u0131yordu. Ancak Gazze krizinin ard\u0131ndan Tel Aviv do\u011frudan \u00fcst d\u00fczey isimleri ve Devrim Muhaf\u0131zlar\u0131’na ba\u011fl\u0131 ve \u0130srail\u2019e d\u00f6n\u00fck sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131 planlayan ki\u015fileri hedef almaya ba\u015flad\u0131.<\/p>\nBask\u0131 Alt\u0131ndaki Tahran ve \u0130rrasyonalitenin Galebe \u00c7almas\u0131<\/strong><\/p>\n\u0130srail ve ABD taraf\u0131ndan \u00fcst d\u00fczey askeri liderlerinin vurulmas\u0131 ve destekledi\u011fi silahl\u0131 \u00f6rg\u00fctlerin de hedef tahtas\u0131na konulmas\u0131 nedeniyle Tahran ciddi bir bask\u0131 alt\u0131na girmi\u015f durumda. Zira, \u00fclke \u015fu ana kadar kendisinden beklenen \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde Gazze krizine m\u00fcdahil olmad\u0131 ve bu da m\u00fcttefiklerinin en az\u0131ndan bir k\u0131sm\u0131nda bir hayal k\u0131r\u0131kl\u0131\u011f\u0131 olu\u015fturdu. Bunun da \u00f6tesinde \u0130ran topraklar\u0131 d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda vurulan Devrim Muhaf\u0131zlar\u0131 mensubu \u00fcst d\u00fczey askeri liderlerin cenazelerinin Tahran\u2019a varmas\u0131 \u00fclkenin i\u00e7 siyasetinde do\u011fal olarak gerilimi art\u0131ran bir unsur. Bu yetmezmi\u015f gibi Kirman\u2019da[viii]<\/a> I\u015e\u0130D\u2019in ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirdi\u011fi ve onlarca ki\u015finin \u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcne y\u00fczlerce ki\u015finin de yaralanmas\u0131na neden olan ter\u00f6r sald\u0131r\u0131s\u0131 da Tahran\u2019da siyasi atmosferi gerginle\u015ftirdi. Bu gergin atmosfere ise \u0130ran i\u00e7 siyasetinde daha sert \u00f6nlemler alarak cevap veriyor. Tahran\u2019dan son d\u00f6nemde ard\u0131 ard\u0131na gelen siyasi mahk\u00fbmlar\u0131n idam[ix]<\/a> haberleri herkesin malumu. \u00dcstelik T\u00fcrkiye ve Suudi Arabistan gibi \u00fclkeler, Gazze sava\u015f\u0131na \u015fu ana kadar Tahran\u2019\u0131n bekledi\u011fi \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde tepki g\u00f6stermemeleri ve \u0130srail ile ba\u011flar\u0131n\u0131 koparmamalar\u0131 nedeniyle \u0130ran medyas\u0131nda s\u00fcrekli ele\u015ftiriliyor. Bu t\u00fcr ele\u015ftiriler \u00fclkenin i\u00e7erisinden ge\u00e7ti\u011fi k\u00f6t\u00fc durumu bir \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde unutturma, i\u00e7 siyasi gerginli\u011fi azaltma ve dikkatleri ba\u015fka noktaya \u00e7ekme ba\u011flam\u0131nda okunabilir.<\/p>\nAlabildi\u011fine kritik ve gergin b\u00f6ylesine bir s\u00fcre\u00e7te Tahran\u2019daki siyaset yap\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131n en az\u0131ndan kom\u015fu \u00fclkelere kar\u015f\u0131 d\u00fc\u015fmanla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131c\u0131 eylemlere giri\u015fmemesi ve ittifak olu\u015fturma gayretlerine h\u0131z vermesi beklenirdi. Ancak, Tahran \u00fczerindeki bask\u0131 dozaj\u0131 artt\u0131k\u00e7a daha irrasyonel hareketlere giri\u015fiyor. Yani \u0130ran\u2019da irrasyonalite itidale galebe \u00e7al\u0131yor. \u0130srail ve ABD s\u00fcrekli olarak \u0130ran’\u0131n destekledi\u011fi devlet d\u0131\u015f\u0131 silahl\u0131 akt\u00f6rleri hedef al\u0131rken Tahran, Irak K\u00fcrdistan B\u00f6lgesi’nin ba\u015fkenti Erbil’i[x]<\/a> ve Suriye’de \u0130dlib’i balistik f\u00fczeler ve insans\u0131z hava ara\u00e7lar\u0131yla vurdu. Daha sonra, Belu\u00e7 ter\u00f6r \u00f6rg\u00fctleri bahanesiyle Pakistan’a[xi]<\/a> sald\u0131rd\u0131- ki bu Pakistan’\u0131n misillemesi g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcne al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda ters tepen bir hamle oldu. \u0130ran\u2019dan Erbil ve \u0130dlib\u2019e do\u011fru ate\u015flenen f\u00fczelerin 1200 km[xii]<\/a> uzakl\u0131ktaki hedefleri vurmas\u0131, totalde ise 1450 kilometrelik[xiii]<\/a> bir menzile sahip olduklar\u0131n\u0131n s\u00f6ylenmesi \u0130srail\u2019e d\u00f6n\u00fck bir mesaj olarak g\u00f6r\u00fclebilir. Yine de 2020 y\u0131l\u0131ndan bu yana \u0130ran destekli milislerce hedef al\u0131nan Erbil\u2019in daha \u00f6nce e\u015fi g\u00f6r\u00fclmedik \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde b\u00fcy\u00fck bir sald\u0131r\u0131ya maruz kalmas\u0131 ve f\u00fczelerin hedef ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 yerdeki devasa y\u0131k\u0131m beklenmeyen bir hamle idi. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla Erbil sald\u0131r\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n \u2018roket diplomasisinde\u2019[xiv]<\/a> yeni bir a\u015fama oldu\u011fu a\u00e7\u0131k.<\/p>\nStratejik Sab\u0131r: Quo Vadis?<\/strong><\/p>\n\u0130ran devlet akl\u0131 Devrim Muhaf\u0131zlar\u0131 Ordusu Kud\u00fcs G\u00fcc\u00fc Komutan\u0131 Kas\u0131m S\u00fcleymani\u2019nin Ocak 2020\u2019de Ba\u011fdat\u2019ta ABD taraf\u0131ndan \u00f6ld\u00fcr\u00fclmesinden sonra \u2018stratejik sab\u0131r\u2019[xv]<\/a> konseptini \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kard\u0131 ve ABD\u2019ye kar\u015f\u0131 ba\u015ftaki intikam vaatlerine kar\u015f\u0131 uzun vadeli bir m\u00fccadele i\u00e7erisine giri\u015fti. Nitekim o g\u00fcnden bu yana ABD\u2019ye \u00e7ok ciddi manada zarar verebilecek bir eylemin i\u00e7erisine girmedi Tahran. ABD Eski Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump\u2019un ifadeleri[xvi]<\/a> do\u011fru ise \u0130ran, Irak\u2019ta vuraca\u011f\u0131 ABD hedefleri i\u00e7in Washington\u2019u uyard\u0131 bile. K\u0131saca geride kalan d\u00f6rt y\u0131lda \u0130ran taraf\u0131ndan uzun erimli stratejiler ve milis yap\u0131lar\u0131n sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131 \u00fczerinden ABD\u2019ye zarar verilmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131ld\u0131. Ancak son d\u00f6nemde yang\u0131n yerine d\u00f6nen Ortado\u011fu\u2019da ya\u015fananlar ve \u0130ran destekli milislerin ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirdi\u011fi bir sald\u0131r\u0131n\u0131n \u00dcrd\u00fcn\u2019de 3 ABD askerinin \u00f6lmesine onlarcas\u0131n\u0131n da yaralanmas\u0131na sebebiyet vermesi Tahran\u2019\u0131n bir \u2018stratejik a\u00e7maza\u2019 saplanabilece\u011fine delalet ediyor. ABD askerlerinin \u00f6ld\u00fcr\u00fclmesi sebebiyle olu\u015fan ciddi gerilim t\u0131rmanmas\u0131 \u0130ran i\u00e7in risk dozaj\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131yor. \u015e\u00f6yle ki, \u0130ran \u00fczerindeki m\u00fcttefik bask\u0131lar\u0131 artt\u0131k\u00e7a-Tahran’\u0131n devlet d\u0131\u015f\u0131 silahl\u0131 m\u00fcttefikleri nezdinde g\u00fcven kayb\u0131na u\u011framak istemedi\u011fi ger\u00e7e\u011fi de g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcne al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda-\u00fclke ataca\u011f\u0131 ad\u0131mlarda rasyonaliteden uzakla\u015f\u0131yor. Rasyonaliteden uzakla\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131 neticesinde \u0130ran, d\u00fc\u015fmanla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lmamas\u0131 gereken kom\u015fu \u00fclkelere sald\u0131r\u0131yor.<\/p>\nBu silsile neticesinde \u00e7ok ciddi hatalar meydana geliyor. Ocak ay\u0131 ortas\u0131nda \u0130ran Devrim Muhaf\u0131zlar\u0131 Ordusu Erbil\u2019de bir K\u00fcrt i\u015f adam\u0131n\u0131n[xvii]<\/a> evini Mossad kararg\u00e2h\u0131[xviii]<\/a> oldu\u011fu iddias\u0131yla balistik f\u00fczelerle hedef ald\u0131. Sald\u0131r\u0131da mezk\u00fbr i\u015f adam\u0131, bir ya\u015f\u0131ndaki bebe\u011fi[xix]<\/a> ve yan\u0131ndaki \u00fc\u00e7 ki\u015fi hayat\u0131n\u0131 kaybetti. Bu hata yetmezmi\u015f gibi, \u0130ran taraf\u0131ndan n\u00fckleer bir g\u00fc\u00e7 olan Pakistan’a da sald\u0131r\u0131ld\u0131 ki bu stratejik bir hatayd\u0131. \u0130ran’\u0131n, Pakistan’\u0131 hedef alman\u0131n Suriye’yi veya Erbil’i hedef almaya benzemedi\u011fini anlamas\u0131 nitekim uzun s\u00fcrmedi. Pakistan h\u0131zl\u0131 bir \u015fekilde \u0130ran\u2019a misillemede bulundu. Pakistan\u2019\u0131n \u0130ran topraklar\u0131n\u0131 yine Tahran\u2019\u0131n \u00f6ne s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc Belu\u00e7 ter\u00f6r \u00f6rg\u00fctleri bahanesiyle hedef almas\u0131[xx]<\/a> nedeniyle bug\u00fcn \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n hava savunma sistemleri ve Tahran\u2019\u0131n cayd\u0131r\u0131c\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 sorgulan\u0131r[xxi]<\/a> h\u00e2le gelmi\u015f vaziyette. Suudi Arabistan ve T\u00fcrkiye gibi b\u00f6lgenin a\u011f\u0131r toplar\u0131n\u0131n \u0130ran\u2019da bu ya\u015fananlar\u0131 yak\u0131ndan takip etti\u011fine ve h\u00e2lihaz\u0131rda vuku bulanlar\u0131n Ankara ve Riyad\u2019\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki zaman diliminde atacaklar\u0131 ad\u0131mlarda referans noktas\u0131 te\u015fkil edece\u011fi izahtan vareste. Buna ra\u011fmen ter\u00f6r bahanesinin bir bumerang i\u015flevi g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc \u0130ran idrak eder mi bu bahs-i di\u011fer.<\/p>\nHer ne kadar \u0130ran, Ortado\u011fu’da destekledi\u011fi silahl\u0131 \u00f6rg\u00fctler \u00fczerinden g\u00fc\u00e7 kazan\u0131yor gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcnse de att\u0131\u011f\u0131 ad\u0131mlar siyasi alanda b\u00f6lge ve kom\u015fu \u00fclke ba\u015fkentleriyle aras\u0131n\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 riske ediyor. Ba\u015fka bir deyi\u015fle \u0130ran’\u0131n uluslararas\u0131 arenada yaln\u0131zla\u015fma riski hi\u00e7 olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 kadar b\u00fcy\u00fck. \u00d6rne\u011fin Pakistan halk\u0131 nezdinde \u0130ran\u2019a d\u00f6n\u00fck ciddi sempatinin[xxii]<\/a> yap\u0131lan son sald\u0131r\u0131 nedeniyle azalm\u0131\u015f olmas\u0131 \u00e7ok olas\u0131. Dahas\u0131 \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n Suriye\u2019de Zeynebiyyun Tugay\u0131[xxiii]<\/a> ad\u0131 alt\u0131nda y\u00fczlerce Pakistanl\u0131y\u0131 Esed rejimi saflar\u0131nda sava\u015ft\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131 biliniyor. Bu andan itibaren \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n Pakistan\u2019dan \u015eii milis dev\u015firmesi de riske girebilir. \u00d6zetle, Pakistan\u2019a sald\u0131r\u0131 sonras\u0131 \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n elinde kalan n\u00fckleer silaha sahip 200 milyondan fazla bir n\u00fcfusa sahip bir kom\u015fusuyla yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131 l\u00fczumsuz gerginlik oldu.<\/p>\nYukar\u0131dakilere ek olarak, Erbil sald\u0131r\u0131s\u0131 sonras\u0131nda Irak\u2019ta da \u0130ran\u2019a beklenmeyen d\u00fczeyde bir tepki g\u00f6sterildi. \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n \u015eii siyasi gruplar ve milisler \u00fczerinden Ba\u011fdat siyaseti \u00fczerinde olu\u015fturdu\u011fu siyasi n\u00fcfuz nedeniyle tepkinin dozaj\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6zellikle \u015fa\u015f\u0131rt\u0131c\u0131 oldu\u011fu s\u00f6ylenebilir. Irak D\u0131\u015fi\u015fleri Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n Erbil sald\u0131r\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 k\u0131nay\u0131p[xxiv]<\/a> Tahran\u2019\u0131 \u2018sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 Birle\u015fmi\u015f Milletler G\u00fcvenlik Konseyi\u2019ne ta\u015f\u0131yabiliriz\u2019 diye tehdit etti. Buna ek olarak, Irak Ba\u015fbakan\u0131, kendisi de \u0130ran destekli \u015eii gruplar\u0131n deste\u011fine sahip Muhammed \u015eiya Sudani, Davos\u2019ta \u0130ran D\u0131\u015fi\u015fleri Bakan\u0131 H\u00fcseyin Emirabdullahiyan ile beklenen g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmesini iptal etti.[xxv]<\/a><\/p>\nN\u00fckleer G\u00fcc\u00fcn Cayd\u0131r\u0131c\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve Sonu\u00e7<\/strong><\/p>\n\u0130ran her ne kadar n\u00fckleer bir g\u00fc\u00e7 oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc i\u00e7in ABD\u2019nin kendi topraklar\u0131n\u0131 do\u011frudan do\u011fruya hedef alamayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnse de Washington bu kadar rasyonel davran\u0131r m\u0131 bilinmez. Gazze sava\u015f\u0131n\u0131n ba\u015flang\u0131c\u0131ndan beri ne Tahran ne de Washington do\u011frudan do\u011fruya kar\u015f\u0131 gelmek istedi. \u0130ki taraf\u0131n kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya gelmesini en \u00e7ok isteyen ki\u015finin ise \u0130srail\u2019deki siyasi \u00f6mr\u00fcn\u00fc uzatmak i\u00e7in her \u015feyi yapmaya haz\u0131r olan \u0130srail Ba\u015fbakan\u0131 Binyamin Netanyahu oldu\u011fu ortada. D\u00fcnya siyasi tarihinde liderlerin irrasyonel kararlar\u0131n yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131 felaketler g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcne al\u0131n\u0131rsa Washington\u2019un daha \u00f6nce giri\u015fti\u011fi Irak, Afganistan ve Vietnam gibi sava\u015flardan ders de almadan \u0130ran\u2019a bir m\u00fcdahalesi b\u00f6lge i\u00e7in bir felaket senaryosuna tekab\u00fcl ediyor.<\/p>\n
3 ABD askerinin \u00dcrd\u00fcn\u2019de \u00f6ld\u00fcr\u00fclmesinden[xxvi]<\/a> sonra ABD\u2019de \u2018\u0130ran\u2019\u0131 vurun\u2019 sesleri y\u00fckselmeye ba\u015flad\u0131. \u00d6zellikle Cumhuriyet\u00e7i senat\u00f6rler[xxvii]<\/a> bu konuda el y\u00fckseltiyorlar. Buna ra\u011fmen \u015fu ana kadar ABD cephesi rasyonel hareket etti ve \u0130ran’la daha b\u00fcy\u00fck bir kap\u0131\u015fmaya giri\u015fmekten ka\u00e7\u0131nd\u0131. Nitekim ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 b\u00f6lgesel bir sava\u015f\u0131 tetiklemek istemedi\u011fini[xxviii]<\/a> ancak ABD’nin \u0130ran’a kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k verece\u011fini a\u00e7\u0131k\u00e7a ifade etti. ABD D\u0131\u015fi\u015fleri Bakan\u0131 Anthony Blinken de benzer a\u00e7\u0131klamalarda bulunarak \u0130ran\u2019a cevab\u0131m\u0131z \u00e7ok katmanl\u0131[xxix]<\/a>, a\u015famal\u0131 ve uzun erimli olacak dedi. Bu durum, ABD’nin Suriye ve Irak’taki \u015eii milislere kar\u015f\u0131 d\u00fczenledi\u011fi misilleme hava sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131nda kristalize oldu. \u015eubat ay\u0131 ba\u015flar\u0131nda \u0130ran destekli milislere kar\u015f\u0131 Suriye ve Irak’ta 85 hedefe[xxx]<\/a> b\u00fcy\u00fck hava sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131 d\u00fczenlendi.<\/p>\nAncak mezk\u00fbr sald\u0131r\u0131lardan \u00f6nce \u0130ran destekli milisler ABD\u2019nin misilleme yapaca\u011f\u0131 beklentisiyle mevzilerini b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde bo\u015faltm\u0131\u015flard\u0131.[xxxi]<\/a> Buna ra\u011fmen Suriye ve Irak’ta ABD\u2019nin d\u00fczenledi\u011fi sald\u0131r\u0131larda aralar\u0131nda sivillerin de bulundu\u011fu kay\u0131plar[xxxii]<\/a> ya\u015fand\u0131. K\u0131sacas\u0131 Tahran iki arada bir derede kalm\u0131\u015f durumda. \u0130ran, ABD&\u0130srail sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131na sessiz kalamaz, aksi takdirde cayd\u0131r\u0131c\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 daha da sorgulan\u0131r hale gelir. Buna paralel olarak Tahran, kolay hedef g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc ABD m\u00fcttefiklerini hedef al\u0131yor. Erbil sald\u0131r\u0131s\u0131 ve son d\u00f6nemde ABD’nin Suriye’deki m\u00fcttefiki SDG’nin hedef al\u0131narak 6 ki\u015finin[xxxiii]<\/a> hayat\u0131n\u0131 kaybetmesi bu durumun g\u00f6stergesidir.<\/p>\nWashington ve Tahran, ABD’nin Suriye ve Irak’tan \u00e7ekilece\u011fi y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki s\u00f6ylentilerin[xxxiv]<\/a> [xxxv]<\/a> ortas\u0131nda birbirlerine kar\u015f\u0131 bir y\u0131pratma sava\u015f\u0131 ba\u015flatt\u0131lar ve \u015fu ana kadar do\u011frudan geni\u015f \u00e7apl\u0131 bir \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmadan ka\u00e7\u0131nd\u0131lar. Ancak Ortado\u011fu’nun mevcut siyasi ve askeri iklimi, h\u00e2lihaz\u0131rdaki ciddi gerilim nedeniyle durumun her an kontrolden \u00e7\u0131kabilece\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Uluslararas\u0131 ili\u015fkilerde t\u0131rmand\u0131rma siyasetinin (brinkmanship) bir s\u0131n\u0131r\u0131 var ve muhatab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131n her hamlesini \u00f6ng\u00f6rmeniz de m\u00fcmk\u00fcn de\u011fil.<\/p>\nABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Joe Biden Gazze krizinde g\u00f6sterdi\u011fi berbat y\u00f6netimin de etkisiyle yakla\u015fan ABD ba\u015fkanl\u0131k se\u00e7imlerinde yar\u0131\u015f\u0131 muhtemel rakibi Donald Trump\u2019a kaybetme[xxxvi]<\/a> ihtimali oldu\u011funu hi\u00e7 \u015f\u00fcphesiz ki g\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Kendisi i\u00e7in b\u00f6ylesine \u00f6nemli bir d\u00f6nemde ise \u00fclkesine Amerikan askerlerin tabutlar\u0131 ula\u015f\u0131yor ve \u00fczerindeki i\u00e7 siyasi bask\u0131 art\u0131yor. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla Biden\u2019\u0131n \u00fclkede prestijini kurtarma amac\u0131yla \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n pervas\u0131z sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131 nedeniyle Tahran\u2019a d\u00f6n\u00fck yeni bir maceraya at\u0131lma ihtimali yabana at\u0131l\u0131r bir risk de\u011fil. \u0130srail, ABD ve m\u00fcttefiklerine d\u00f6n\u00fck sald\u0131r\u0131lar \u00fczerinden destekledi\u011fi devlet d\u0131\u015f\u0131 silahl\u0131 akt\u00f6rler nezdinde kendisine g\u00fcveni konsolide etme hamlesi \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n topraklar\u0131n\u0131n vurulmas\u0131 ile neticelenecek mi bunu ancak zaman g\u00f6sterecek. \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n yanl\u0131\u015f hesaplamalar\u0131 sebebiyle t\u0131rmand\u0131rma stratejisi ters teper de ABD, \u0130ran topraklar\u0131na y\u00f6nelik bir sald\u0131r\u0131da bulunursa b\u00fct\u00fcn Ortado\u011fu cehenneme d\u00f6ner.<\/p>\nSonnotlar<\/strong><\/p>\n[i]<\/a> William Tobin ve Joseph Webster, Houthi attacks in the Red Sea hurt global trade and slow the energy transition, Atlantic Council, 25 Ocak 2024, https:\/\/www.atlanticcouncil.org\/blogs\/new-atlanticist\/houthi-attacks-in-the-red-sea-hurt-global-trade-and-slow-the-energy-transition\/<\/a><\/p>\n[ii]<\/a> Oren Liebermann ve Haley Britzky, US and UK strike Houthi targets in Yemen one day after US strikes in Iraq and Syria, CNN, 4 \u015eubat 2024, https:\/\/edition.cnn.com\/2024\/02\/03\/politics\/strikes-us-uk-houthi-yemen\/index.html<\/a><\/p>\n[iii]<\/a> Awad Al Rajoub, PROFILE \u2013 Saleh al-Arouri, Hamas deputy leader assassinated by Israel in Lebanon, Anadolu Agency, 2 Ocak 2024, https:\/\/www.aa.com.tr\/en\/middle-east\/profile-saleh-al-arouri-hamas-deputy-leader-assassinated-by-israel-in-lebanon\/3098622<\/a><\/p>\n[iv]<\/a> Iraq blames US-led coalition for deadly drone strike in Baghdad, Al Jazeera, 4 Ocak 2024, https:\/\/www.aljazeera.com\/news\/2024\/1\/4\/iraq-blames-us-led-coalition-for-baghdad-deadly-drone-strike<\/a><\/p>\n[v]<\/a> Israeli airstrike on Damascus killed at least 5 Iranian advisers, state media say, NPR, 20 Ocak 2024, https:\/\/www.npr.org\/2024\/01\/20\/1225792450\/reported-israeli-airstrike-on-damascus-kills-commander-with-irans-elite-force<\/a><\/p>\n[vi]<\/a> Iranian Militias, Syrian Regime Tussle Over \u2018Sayyida Zainab\u2019, The Syrian Observer, 17 May\u0131s 2021, https:\/\/syrianobserver.com\/features\/66142\/iranian-militias-syrian-regime-tussle-over-sayyida-zainab.html<\/a><\/p>\n[vii]<\/a> Israel Shifts Strategy in Syria: High-Profile Assassinations and New Dynamics in Russian-Israeli Relations, The Syrian Observer, 22 Ocak 2024, https:\/\/syrianobserver.com\/news\/87185\/israel-shifts-strategy-in-syria-high-profile-assassinations-and-new-dynamics-in-russian-israeli-relations.html<\/a><\/p>\n[viii]<\/a> Eyad Kourdi ve Jennifer Deaton, ISIS claims responsibility for deadliest attack in Iran since 1979 revolution, CNN, 5 Ocak 2024, https:\/\/edition.cnn.com\/2024\/01\/04\/middleeast\/iran-islamic-state-attack-kerman-intl\/index.html<\/a><\/p>\n[ix]<\/a> Iran executes four Kurdish political prisoners, Rudaw, 29 Ocak 2024, https:\/\/www.rudaw.net\/english\/middleeast\/iran\/29012024<\/a><\/p>\n[x]<\/a> Paul Iddon, What was behind Iran\u2019s deadly missile attack on Iraqi Kurdistan?, The New Arab, 17 Ocak 2024, https:\/\/www.newarab.com\/analysis\/what-was-behind-irans-missile-attack-iraqi-kurdistan<\/a><\/p>\n[xi]<\/a> Jonny Hallam, Asim Khan ve Helen Regan, Pakistan condemns deadly Iranian missile strike on its territory as tensions spike across region, CNN, 17 Ocak 2024, https:\/\/edition.cnn.com\/2024\/01\/17\/middleeast\/iran-missile-attack-pakistan-intl-hnk\/index.html<\/a><\/p>\n[xii]<\/a> Svetlana Ekimenko, Iran’s Strike on Erbil is ‘Deliberate & Calculated Move’ to Show Its Missile Abilities, Expert Says, Sputnik, 16 Ocak 2024, https:\/\/en.sputniknews.africa\/20240116\/1064640139.html<\/a><\/p>\n[xiii]<\/a> Iran Showcases Precision of \u201cKhaybar Shekan\u201d Ballistic Missile in Striking Targets in Iraq, Syria, Defence Security Asia, 17 Ocak 2024, https:\/\/defencesecurityasia.com\/en\/iran-khaybar-shekan-missile\/<\/a><\/p>\n[xiv]<\/a> Iran\u2019s Missile Diplomacy Towards the Kurdistan Region of Iraq: Local and Regional Messages, Raman Center for Research and Consultancy, 4 Eyl\u00fcl 2023, https:\/\/ramancenter.org\/en\/irans-missile-diplomacy-towards-the-kurdistan-region-of-iraq-local-and-regional-messages\/<\/a><\/p>\n[xv]<\/a> Hassan Mneimneh, \u2018Strategic Patience\u2019 and Iran\u2019s \u201cResistance Axis\u201d: An Enduring Challenge for Biden’s Administration, Washington Institute, 11 Aral\u0131k 2020, https:\/\/www.washingtoninstitute.org\/policy-analysis\/strategic-patience-and-irans-resistance-axis-enduring-challenge-bidens<\/a><\/p>\n[xvi]<\/a> Bkz. https:\/\/twitter.com\/alihashem_tv\/status\/1754207755399811363<\/a><\/p>\n[xvii]<\/a> Karwan Faidhi Dri, Who was the Kurdish businessman killed by Iranian missiles in Erbil?, Rudaw, 17 Ocak 2024, https:\/\/www.rudaw.net\/english\/kurdistan\/160120249<\/a><\/p>\n[xviii]<\/a> Iraq denies Iranian strikes targeted Mossad headquarters in Erbil, Anadolu Agency, 16 Ocak 2024, https:\/\/www.aa.com.tr\/en\/middle-east\/iraq-denies-iranian-strikes-targeted-mossad-headquarters-in-erbil\/3110492<\/a><\/p>\n[xix]<\/a> Heman Hussein Yassen, Iraqi businessman Dizayee killed with daughter on her 1st birthday in Iranian attack in Erbil, Anadolu Agency, 16 Ocak 2024, https:\/\/www.aa.com.tr\/en\/middle-east\/iraqi-businessman-dizayee-killed-with-daughter-on-her-1st-birthday-in-iranian-attack-in-erbil\/3110409<\/a><\/p>\n[xx]<\/a> Frances Mao, Caroline Davies ve Paul Adams, Pakistan launches retaliatory strikes into Iran, killing nine people, BBC, 18 Ocak 2024, https:\/\/www.bbc.com\/news\/world-asia-68014882<\/a><\/p>\n[xxi]<\/a> Riaz Khokhar ve Asma Khalid, Iran Has Conducted Strikes in Pakistan Before. This Time Was Different., The Diplomat, 26 Ocak 2024, https:\/\/thediplomat.com\/2024\/01\/iran-has-conducted-strikes-in-pakistan-before-this-time-was-different\/<\/a><\/p>\n[xxii]<\/a> Bkz. https:\/\/twitter.com\/omairanas\/status\/1747937277752254669<\/a><\/p>\n[xxiii]<\/a> Farhan Zahid, The Zainabiyoun Brigade: A Pakistani Shiite Militia Amid the Syrian Conflict, The Jamestown Foundation, 27 May\u0131s 2016, https:\/\/jamestown.org\/program\/the-zainabiyoun-brigade-a-pakistani-shiite-militia-amid-the-syrian-conflict\/<\/a><\/p>\n[xxiv]<\/a> Iraq takes \u2018Iranian aggression\u2019 case to the UN following Erbil attack, Rudaw, 16 Ocak 2024, https:\/\/www.rudaw.net\/english\/middleeast\/iraq\/16012024<\/a><\/p>\n[xxv]<\/a> Iraqi, Kurdish PMs cancel talks with Iran at Davos, The Cradle, 17 Ocak 2024, https:\/\/thecradle.co\/articles-id\/19290<\/a><\/p>\n[xxvi]<\/a> Eleanor Watson, Pentagon releases names of 3 soldiers killed in drone attack in Jordan, CBS News, 30 Ocak 2024, https:\/\/www.cbsnews.com\/news\/soldiers-killed-jordan-names\/<\/a><\/p>\n[xxvii]<\/a> Natasha Turak, Biden faces demands from Republicans in Congress to strike Iran after U.S. troop deaths, CNBC, 29 Ocak 2024, https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2024\/01\/29\/lawmakers-demanding-biden-strike-iran-after-us-troop-deaths-in-jordan-.html<\/a><\/p>\n[xxviii]<\/a> Felicia Schwartz ve James Politi, Can Biden respond to Iran-backed attack without escalating the war?, Financial Times, 30 Ocak 2024, https:\/\/www.ft.com\/content\/a5b3ded7-6c10-4586-a263-d884c78ef592<\/a><\/p>\n[xxix]<\/a> Stephen Collinson, Biden has to deal with a second war he didn\u2019t want. His task is to contain it, CNN, 31 Ocak 2024, https:\/\/edition.cnn.com\/2024\/01\/30\/politics\/biden-middle-east-war-analysis\/index.html<\/a><\/p>\n[xxx]<\/a> Natasha Bertrand, Haley Britzky, Oren Liebermann ve Kevin Liptak, US carries out retaliatory strikes on Iranian-linked militia targets in Iraq and Syria, CNN, 3 \u015eubat 2024, https:\/\/edition.cnn.com\/2024\/02\/02\/politics\/us-strikes-iraq-syria\/index.html<\/a><\/p>\n[xxxi]<\/a> Keir Simmons, Mo Abbas ve Khalid Razak, Wait for U.S. retaliatory strikes gives Iran-linked militias plenty of time to prepare, NBC News, 2 \u015eubat 2024, https:\/\/www.nbcnews.com\/news\/world\/israel-hamas-war-us-strikes-iran-militants-iraq-syria-rcna136934<\/a><\/p>\n[xxxii]<\/a> Iraq says 16 people, including civilians, killed in \u2018new US aggression\u2019, Al Jazeera, 3 \u015eubat 2024, https:\/\/www.aljazeera.com\/news\/2024\/2\/3\/us-warns-of-more-retaliatory-strikes-as-it-hits-iraq-syria-amid-gaza-war<\/a><\/p>\n[xxxiii]<\/a> Beatrice Farhat, 6 Kurdish SDF forces killed in Iran-linked attack on Syria base housing US troops, Al Monitor, 5 \u015eubat 2024, https:\/\/www.al-monitor.com\/originals\/2024\/02\/6-kurdish-sdf-forces-killed-iran-linked-attack-syria-base-housing-us-troops<\/a><\/p>\n[xxxiv]<\/a> Dan Lamothe ve Missy Ryan, U.S. signals it is open to withdrawing some troops from Iraq, Washington Post, 25 Ocak 2024, https:\/\/www.washingtonpost.com\/national-security\/2024\/01\/25\/iraq-syria-pentagon-military\/<\/a><\/p>\n[xxxv]<\/a> Charles Lister, America Is Planning to Withdraw From Syria\u2014and Create a Disaster, Foreign Policy, 24 Ocak 2024, https:\/\/foreignpolicy.com\/2024\/01\/24\/america-is-planning-to-withdraw-from-syria-and-create-a-disaster\/<\/a><\/p>\n[xxxvi]<\/a> Ryan King, Trump scores \u2018the biggest lead\u2019 yet against Biden in new NBC poll, New York Post, 4 \u015eubat 2024, https:\/\/nypost.com\/2024\/02\/04\/news\/trump-scores-the-biggest-lead-yet-against-biden-in-new-nbc-poll\/<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"\u0130ran son aylarda hakk\u0131nda en \u00e7ok konu\u015fulan \u00fclkelerden biri. \u00dclkede 1979 y\u0131l\u0131nda ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen devrimle \u0130ran \u0130slam Cumhuriyeti’nin kurulmas\u0131ndan bu yana Tahran devrim ihrac\u0131 projesini ba\u015flatm\u0131\u015f ve resmi s\u00f6yleminin odak noktas\u0131na Filistin ve Kud\u00fcs’\u00fcn kurtulu\u015funu koymu\u015ftu<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":57,"featured_media":37592,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","ngg_post_thumbnail":0},"categories":[361],"tags":[],"asf_pub_issue":[10319],"asf_pub_region":[10321,18939],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/37600"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/57"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=37600"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/37600\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":37608,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/37600\/revisions\/37608"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/37592"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=37600"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=37600"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=37600"},{"taxonomy":"asf_pub_issue","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/asf_pub_issue?post=37600"},{"taxonomy":"asf_pub_region","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/asf_pub_region?post=37600"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}
Uzman G\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fc<\/a> \/ \/ B\u00f6lgesel Politika<\/a><\/h6><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div>(Bu metin \u0130ngilizce orijinal versiyonundan terc\u00fcme edilmi\u015ftir.)<\/em><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\nGiri\u015f<\/strong><\/p>\n\u0130ran son aylarda hakk\u0131nda en \u00e7ok konu\u015fulan \u00fclkelerden biri. \u00dclkede 1979 y\u0131l\u0131nda ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen devrimle \u0130ran \u0130slam Cumhuriyeti’nin kurulmas\u0131ndan bu yana Tahran devrim ihrac\u0131 projesini ba\u015flatm\u0131\u015f ve resmi s\u00f6yleminin odak noktas\u0131na Filistin ve Kud\u00fcs’\u00fcn kurtulu\u015funu koymu\u015ftu. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla, Hamas’\u0131n Aksa Tufan\u0131 Operasyonu akabinde, Gazze \u0130srail taraf\u0131ndan tarumar edilirken ve Filistin \u00e7ok hararetli bir d\u00f6nemden ge\u00e7erken, siyasi g\u00fc\u00e7 merkezlerinde \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n ad\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6n plana \u00e7\u0131kmamas\u0131 beklenemezdi.<\/p>\n
Ne var ki \u0130ran, \u015fu ana kadar att\u0131\u011f\u0131 ad\u0131mlarla, muar\u0131zlar\u0131n\u0131n ele\u015ftirileri g\u00f6z ard\u0131 edilse dahi, m\u00fcttefiklerini dahi memnun edememi\u015f vaziyette ve ittifak a\u011flar\u0131nda belli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde bir hayal k\u0131r\u0131kl\u0131\u011f\u0131na sebebiyet vermi\u015f durumda. Tahran, Arap Bahar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131 ke\u015fmeke\u015fin sundu\u011fu f\u0131rsat pencerelerinden yararlanarak Suriye, Irak, Yemen ve Hizbullah \u00fczerinden L\u00fcbnan\u2019daki etkisini artt\u0131rm\u0131\u015f ve bahse konu \u00fclkelerin siyasetleri \u00fczerinde ciddi bir n\u00fcfuz-daha do\u011fru bir ibareyle tasallut veya vesayet-olu\u015fturmu\u015f halde. Bununla birlikte Gazze yerle yeksan edilirken Tahran sava\u015fa do\u011frudan do\u011fruya m\u00fcdahil olmayarak, devlet d\u0131\u015f\u0131 vekil \u00f6rg\u00fctleri \u00fczerinden \u0130srail ve ABD ile bir \u2018bilek g\u00fcre\u015fine\u2019 ya da g\u00fc\u00e7 m\u00fccadelesine giri\u015fti. B\u00f6ylesi bir s\u00fcre\u00e7te en \u00f6n plana \u00e7\u0131kan yap\u0131 ise Yemen\u2019deki Husiler oldu. Yapt\u0131klar\u0131 sald\u0131r\u0131larla K\u0131z\u0131ldeniz ve Bab\u00fclmendep Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndaki uluslararas\u0131 ticareti[i]<\/a> ciddi bir \u015fekilde etkileyen Husiler, ABD ve \u0130ngiltere\u2019nin gazab\u0131n\u0131 \u00fczerlerine \u00e7ekerek sald\u0131r\u0131lara[ii]<\/a> maruz kald\u0131lar. Buna ra\u011fmen, Tahran, Gazze kriziyle birlikte Husilerden adeta ikinci bir Hizbullah yaratma misyonunda \u00f6nemli oranda yol alm\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Daha a\u00e7\u0131k bir ifadeyle s\u00f6yleyecek olursak Arap Bahar\u0131 sonras\u0131nda Husiler\/Yemen Tahran i\u00e7in bir g\u00fcvenli kale haline geldi. Muhtelif medya organlar\u0131nda Husiler i\u00e7in kullan\u0131lan \u2018Yemen Silahl\u0131 Kuvvetleri\u2019 gibi yak\u0131\u015ft\u0131rmalar, yap\u0131n\u0131n me\u015fruiyet kazanma \u00e7abas\u0131nda a\u015fama kat etti\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\nTahran, mevcut hamlelerini yaparken de konforlu addedilebilecek bir alanda duruyor. Zira Tahran ittifak ili\u015fkisi i\u00e7erisinde oldu\u011fu silahl\u0131 \u00f6rg\u00fctlerin ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z \u015fekilde kararlar ald\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 iddia ederek, \u0130ran’\u0131n kimseye emir vermedi\u011fini belirtiyor. B\u00f6ylelikle makul ink\u00e2r edilebilirli\u011fe (plausible deniability) s\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131yor. B\u00f6ylesi bir strateji ile Tahran proksilerinin yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 eylemlerin ekonomik, siyasi, hukuki ve askeri sonu\u00e7lar\u0131ndan ka\u00e7\u0131nmaya \u00e7abal\u0131yor ancak bunda ne karar ba\u015far\u0131l\u0131 oldu\u011fu ayr\u0131 bir tart\u0131\u015fma konusu.<\/p>\n
\u0130ran Devrim Muhaf\u0131zlar\u0131 Ordusu ve Tahran Destekli Milisler Ate\u015f Alt\u0131nda<\/strong><\/p>\nTahran\u2019\u0131n \u0130srail ile do\u011frudan do\u011fruya sava\u015fa giri\u015fmemi\u015f olmas\u0131, Tel Aviv ve Washington\u2019u \u0130ran Devrim Muhaf\u0131zlar\u0131 Ordusu mensuplar\u0131n\u0131n yan\u0131 s\u0131ra Tahran destekli milisleri vurmaktan cayd\u0131rmad\u0131. Gazze sava\u015f\u0131n\u0131n ba\u015flang\u0131c\u0131ndan beri, ABD-\u0130srail ikilisi L\u00fcbnan, Irak, Suriye ve Yemen\u2019de \u0130ran destekli \u00fcst d\u00fczey fig\u00fcrleri hedef ald\u0131. Hamas Siyasi B\u00fcro Ba\u015fkan Yard\u0131mc\u0131s\u0131 Salih el-Aruri L\u00fcbnan’da suikasta[iii]<\/a> kurban giderken, Ha\u015fdi \u015eabi komutan\u0131 Ebu Takva es-Saidi[iv]<\/a> Irak’ta hedef al\u0131nd\u0131. Devrim Muhaf\u0131zlar\u0131 Generali R\u0131za Musevi ise \u015eam’da \u00f6ld\u00fcr\u00fcld\u00fc. Ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz g\u00fcnlerde \u0130ran’\u0131n kalelerinden[v]<\/a> biri olarak bilinen \u015eam’\u0131n Seyyide Zeyneb t\u00fcrbesi civar\u0131nda da aralar\u0131nda \u0130ran Devrim Muhaf\u0131zlar\u0131 Ordusu-Kud\u00fcs G\u00fcc\u00fc\u2019n\u00fcn Suriye istihbarat\u0131ndan sorumlu ismi Sad\u0131k \u00dcmidzade\u2019nin[vi]<\/a> de bulundu\u011fu 5 Devrim Muhaf\u0131z\u0131 \u00fcyesi \u00f6ld\u00fcr\u00fcld\u00fc. Burada \u015fu noktay\u0131 not etmek \u00f6nemli: Gazze sava\u015f\u0131 patlak verdikten sonra \u0130srail, \u0130ran\u2019a kar\u015f\u0131 bir strateji de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fine[vii]<\/a> gitmi\u015f durumda. Tel Aviv, sava\u015ftan \u00f6nce \u00f6rne\u011fin Suriye\u2019de \u0130ran’a ait depo, donan\u0131m vb. yerleri hedef al\u0131yordu. Ancak Gazze krizinin ard\u0131ndan Tel Aviv do\u011frudan \u00fcst d\u00fczey isimleri ve Devrim Muhaf\u0131zlar\u0131’na ba\u011fl\u0131 ve \u0130srail\u2019e d\u00f6n\u00fck sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131 planlayan ki\u015fileri hedef almaya ba\u015flad\u0131.<\/p>\nBask\u0131 Alt\u0131ndaki Tahran ve \u0130rrasyonalitenin Galebe \u00c7almas\u0131<\/strong><\/p>\n\u0130srail ve ABD taraf\u0131ndan \u00fcst d\u00fczey askeri liderlerinin vurulmas\u0131 ve destekledi\u011fi silahl\u0131 \u00f6rg\u00fctlerin de hedef tahtas\u0131na konulmas\u0131 nedeniyle Tahran ciddi bir bask\u0131 alt\u0131na girmi\u015f durumda. Zira, \u00fclke \u015fu ana kadar kendisinden beklenen \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde Gazze krizine m\u00fcdahil olmad\u0131 ve bu da m\u00fcttefiklerinin en az\u0131ndan bir k\u0131sm\u0131nda bir hayal k\u0131r\u0131kl\u0131\u011f\u0131 olu\u015fturdu. Bunun da \u00f6tesinde \u0130ran topraklar\u0131 d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda vurulan Devrim Muhaf\u0131zlar\u0131 mensubu \u00fcst d\u00fczey askeri liderlerin cenazelerinin Tahran\u2019a varmas\u0131 \u00fclkenin i\u00e7 siyasetinde do\u011fal olarak gerilimi art\u0131ran bir unsur. Bu yetmezmi\u015f gibi Kirman\u2019da[viii]<\/a> I\u015e\u0130D\u2019in ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirdi\u011fi ve onlarca ki\u015finin \u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcne y\u00fczlerce ki\u015finin de yaralanmas\u0131na neden olan ter\u00f6r sald\u0131r\u0131s\u0131 da Tahran\u2019da siyasi atmosferi gerginle\u015ftirdi. Bu gergin atmosfere ise \u0130ran i\u00e7 siyasetinde daha sert \u00f6nlemler alarak cevap veriyor. Tahran\u2019dan son d\u00f6nemde ard\u0131 ard\u0131na gelen siyasi mahk\u00fbmlar\u0131n idam[ix]<\/a> haberleri herkesin malumu. \u00dcstelik T\u00fcrkiye ve Suudi Arabistan gibi \u00fclkeler, Gazze sava\u015f\u0131na \u015fu ana kadar Tahran\u2019\u0131n bekledi\u011fi \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde tepki g\u00f6stermemeleri ve \u0130srail ile ba\u011flar\u0131n\u0131 koparmamalar\u0131 nedeniyle \u0130ran medyas\u0131nda s\u00fcrekli ele\u015ftiriliyor. Bu t\u00fcr ele\u015ftiriler \u00fclkenin i\u00e7erisinden ge\u00e7ti\u011fi k\u00f6t\u00fc durumu bir \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde unutturma, i\u00e7 siyasi gerginli\u011fi azaltma ve dikkatleri ba\u015fka noktaya \u00e7ekme ba\u011flam\u0131nda okunabilir.<\/p>\nAlabildi\u011fine kritik ve gergin b\u00f6ylesine bir s\u00fcre\u00e7te Tahran\u2019daki siyaset yap\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131n en az\u0131ndan kom\u015fu \u00fclkelere kar\u015f\u0131 d\u00fc\u015fmanla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131c\u0131 eylemlere giri\u015fmemesi ve ittifak olu\u015fturma gayretlerine h\u0131z vermesi beklenirdi. Ancak, Tahran \u00fczerindeki bask\u0131 dozaj\u0131 artt\u0131k\u00e7a daha irrasyonel hareketlere giri\u015fiyor. Yani \u0130ran\u2019da irrasyonalite itidale galebe \u00e7al\u0131yor. \u0130srail ve ABD s\u00fcrekli olarak \u0130ran’\u0131n destekledi\u011fi devlet d\u0131\u015f\u0131 silahl\u0131 akt\u00f6rleri hedef al\u0131rken Tahran, Irak K\u00fcrdistan B\u00f6lgesi’nin ba\u015fkenti Erbil’i[x]<\/a> ve Suriye’de \u0130dlib’i balistik f\u00fczeler ve insans\u0131z hava ara\u00e7lar\u0131yla vurdu. Daha sonra, Belu\u00e7 ter\u00f6r \u00f6rg\u00fctleri bahanesiyle Pakistan’a[xi]<\/a> sald\u0131rd\u0131- ki bu Pakistan’\u0131n misillemesi g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcne al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda ters tepen bir hamle oldu. \u0130ran\u2019dan Erbil ve \u0130dlib\u2019e do\u011fru ate\u015flenen f\u00fczelerin 1200 km[xii]<\/a> uzakl\u0131ktaki hedefleri vurmas\u0131, totalde ise 1450 kilometrelik[xiii]<\/a> bir menzile sahip olduklar\u0131n\u0131n s\u00f6ylenmesi \u0130srail\u2019e d\u00f6n\u00fck bir mesaj olarak g\u00f6r\u00fclebilir. Yine de 2020 y\u0131l\u0131ndan bu yana \u0130ran destekli milislerce hedef al\u0131nan Erbil\u2019in daha \u00f6nce e\u015fi g\u00f6r\u00fclmedik \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde b\u00fcy\u00fck bir sald\u0131r\u0131ya maruz kalmas\u0131 ve f\u00fczelerin hedef ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 yerdeki devasa y\u0131k\u0131m beklenmeyen bir hamle idi. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla Erbil sald\u0131r\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n \u2018roket diplomasisinde\u2019[xiv]<\/a> yeni bir a\u015fama oldu\u011fu a\u00e7\u0131k.<\/p>\nStratejik Sab\u0131r: Quo Vadis?<\/strong><\/p>\n\u0130ran devlet akl\u0131 Devrim Muhaf\u0131zlar\u0131 Ordusu Kud\u00fcs G\u00fcc\u00fc Komutan\u0131 Kas\u0131m S\u00fcleymani\u2019nin Ocak 2020\u2019de Ba\u011fdat\u2019ta ABD taraf\u0131ndan \u00f6ld\u00fcr\u00fclmesinden sonra \u2018stratejik sab\u0131r\u2019[xv]<\/a> konseptini \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kard\u0131 ve ABD\u2019ye kar\u015f\u0131 ba\u015ftaki intikam vaatlerine kar\u015f\u0131 uzun vadeli bir m\u00fccadele i\u00e7erisine giri\u015fti. Nitekim o g\u00fcnden bu yana ABD\u2019ye \u00e7ok ciddi manada zarar verebilecek bir eylemin i\u00e7erisine girmedi Tahran. ABD Eski Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump\u2019un ifadeleri[xvi]<\/a> do\u011fru ise \u0130ran, Irak\u2019ta vuraca\u011f\u0131 ABD hedefleri i\u00e7in Washington\u2019u uyard\u0131 bile. K\u0131saca geride kalan d\u00f6rt y\u0131lda \u0130ran taraf\u0131ndan uzun erimli stratejiler ve milis yap\u0131lar\u0131n sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131 \u00fczerinden ABD\u2019ye zarar verilmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131ld\u0131. Ancak son d\u00f6nemde yang\u0131n yerine d\u00f6nen Ortado\u011fu\u2019da ya\u015fananlar ve \u0130ran destekli milislerin ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirdi\u011fi bir sald\u0131r\u0131n\u0131n \u00dcrd\u00fcn\u2019de 3 ABD askerinin \u00f6lmesine onlarcas\u0131n\u0131n da yaralanmas\u0131na sebebiyet vermesi Tahran\u2019\u0131n bir \u2018stratejik a\u00e7maza\u2019 saplanabilece\u011fine delalet ediyor. ABD askerlerinin \u00f6ld\u00fcr\u00fclmesi sebebiyle olu\u015fan ciddi gerilim t\u0131rmanmas\u0131 \u0130ran i\u00e7in risk dozaj\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131yor. \u015e\u00f6yle ki, \u0130ran \u00fczerindeki m\u00fcttefik bask\u0131lar\u0131 artt\u0131k\u00e7a-Tahran’\u0131n devlet d\u0131\u015f\u0131 silahl\u0131 m\u00fcttefikleri nezdinde g\u00fcven kayb\u0131na u\u011framak istemedi\u011fi ger\u00e7e\u011fi de g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcne al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda-\u00fclke ataca\u011f\u0131 ad\u0131mlarda rasyonaliteden uzakla\u015f\u0131yor. Rasyonaliteden uzakla\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131 neticesinde \u0130ran, d\u00fc\u015fmanla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lmamas\u0131 gereken kom\u015fu \u00fclkelere sald\u0131r\u0131yor.<\/p>\nBu silsile neticesinde \u00e7ok ciddi hatalar meydana geliyor. Ocak ay\u0131 ortas\u0131nda \u0130ran Devrim Muhaf\u0131zlar\u0131 Ordusu Erbil\u2019de bir K\u00fcrt i\u015f adam\u0131n\u0131n[xvii]<\/a> evini Mossad kararg\u00e2h\u0131[xviii]<\/a> oldu\u011fu iddias\u0131yla balistik f\u00fczelerle hedef ald\u0131. Sald\u0131r\u0131da mezk\u00fbr i\u015f adam\u0131, bir ya\u015f\u0131ndaki bebe\u011fi[xix]<\/a> ve yan\u0131ndaki \u00fc\u00e7 ki\u015fi hayat\u0131n\u0131 kaybetti. Bu hata yetmezmi\u015f gibi, \u0130ran taraf\u0131ndan n\u00fckleer bir g\u00fc\u00e7 olan Pakistan’a da sald\u0131r\u0131ld\u0131 ki bu stratejik bir hatayd\u0131. \u0130ran’\u0131n, Pakistan’\u0131 hedef alman\u0131n Suriye’yi veya Erbil’i hedef almaya benzemedi\u011fini anlamas\u0131 nitekim uzun s\u00fcrmedi. Pakistan h\u0131zl\u0131 bir \u015fekilde \u0130ran\u2019a misillemede bulundu. Pakistan\u2019\u0131n \u0130ran topraklar\u0131n\u0131 yine Tahran\u2019\u0131n \u00f6ne s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc Belu\u00e7 ter\u00f6r \u00f6rg\u00fctleri bahanesiyle hedef almas\u0131[xx]<\/a> nedeniyle bug\u00fcn \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n hava savunma sistemleri ve Tahran\u2019\u0131n cayd\u0131r\u0131c\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 sorgulan\u0131r[xxi]<\/a> h\u00e2le gelmi\u015f vaziyette. Suudi Arabistan ve T\u00fcrkiye gibi b\u00f6lgenin a\u011f\u0131r toplar\u0131n\u0131n \u0130ran\u2019da bu ya\u015fananlar\u0131 yak\u0131ndan takip etti\u011fine ve h\u00e2lihaz\u0131rda vuku bulanlar\u0131n Ankara ve Riyad\u2019\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki zaman diliminde atacaklar\u0131 ad\u0131mlarda referans noktas\u0131 te\u015fkil edece\u011fi izahtan vareste. Buna ra\u011fmen ter\u00f6r bahanesinin bir bumerang i\u015flevi g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc \u0130ran idrak eder mi bu bahs-i di\u011fer.<\/p>\nHer ne kadar \u0130ran, Ortado\u011fu’da destekledi\u011fi silahl\u0131 \u00f6rg\u00fctler \u00fczerinden g\u00fc\u00e7 kazan\u0131yor gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcnse de att\u0131\u011f\u0131 ad\u0131mlar siyasi alanda b\u00f6lge ve kom\u015fu \u00fclke ba\u015fkentleriyle aras\u0131n\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 riske ediyor. Ba\u015fka bir deyi\u015fle \u0130ran’\u0131n uluslararas\u0131 arenada yaln\u0131zla\u015fma riski hi\u00e7 olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 kadar b\u00fcy\u00fck. \u00d6rne\u011fin Pakistan halk\u0131 nezdinde \u0130ran\u2019a d\u00f6n\u00fck ciddi sempatinin[xxii]<\/a> yap\u0131lan son sald\u0131r\u0131 nedeniyle azalm\u0131\u015f olmas\u0131 \u00e7ok olas\u0131. Dahas\u0131 \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n Suriye\u2019de Zeynebiyyun Tugay\u0131[xxiii]<\/a> ad\u0131 alt\u0131nda y\u00fczlerce Pakistanl\u0131y\u0131 Esed rejimi saflar\u0131nda sava\u015ft\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131 biliniyor. Bu andan itibaren \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n Pakistan\u2019dan \u015eii milis dev\u015firmesi de riske girebilir. \u00d6zetle, Pakistan\u2019a sald\u0131r\u0131 sonras\u0131 \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n elinde kalan n\u00fckleer silaha sahip 200 milyondan fazla bir n\u00fcfusa sahip bir kom\u015fusuyla yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131 l\u00fczumsuz gerginlik oldu.<\/p>\nYukar\u0131dakilere ek olarak, Erbil sald\u0131r\u0131s\u0131 sonras\u0131nda Irak\u2019ta da \u0130ran\u2019a beklenmeyen d\u00fczeyde bir tepki g\u00f6sterildi. \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n \u015eii siyasi gruplar ve milisler \u00fczerinden Ba\u011fdat siyaseti \u00fczerinde olu\u015fturdu\u011fu siyasi n\u00fcfuz nedeniyle tepkinin dozaj\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6zellikle \u015fa\u015f\u0131rt\u0131c\u0131 oldu\u011fu s\u00f6ylenebilir. Irak D\u0131\u015fi\u015fleri Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n Erbil sald\u0131r\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 k\u0131nay\u0131p[xxiv]<\/a> Tahran\u2019\u0131 \u2018sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 Birle\u015fmi\u015f Milletler G\u00fcvenlik Konseyi\u2019ne ta\u015f\u0131yabiliriz\u2019 diye tehdit etti. Buna ek olarak, Irak Ba\u015fbakan\u0131, kendisi de \u0130ran destekli \u015eii gruplar\u0131n deste\u011fine sahip Muhammed \u015eiya Sudani, Davos\u2019ta \u0130ran D\u0131\u015fi\u015fleri Bakan\u0131 H\u00fcseyin Emirabdullahiyan ile beklenen g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmesini iptal etti.[xxv]<\/a><\/p>\nN\u00fckleer G\u00fcc\u00fcn Cayd\u0131r\u0131c\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve Sonu\u00e7<\/strong><\/p>\n\u0130ran her ne kadar n\u00fckleer bir g\u00fc\u00e7 oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc i\u00e7in ABD\u2019nin kendi topraklar\u0131n\u0131 do\u011frudan do\u011fruya hedef alamayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnse de Washington bu kadar rasyonel davran\u0131r m\u0131 bilinmez. Gazze sava\u015f\u0131n\u0131n ba\u015flang\u0131c\u0131ndan beri ne Tahran ne de Washington do\u011frudan do\u011fruya kar\u015f\u0131 gelmek istedi. \u0130ki taraf\u0131n kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya gelmesini en \u00e7ok isteyen ki\u015finin ise \u0130srail\u2019deki siyasi \u00f6mr\u00fcn\u00fc uzatmak i\u00e7in her \u015feyi yapmaya haz\u0131r olan \u0130srail Ba\u015fbakan\u0131 Binyamin Netanyahu oldu\u011fu ortada. D\u00fcnya siyasi tarihinde liderlerin irrasyonel kararlar\u0131n yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131 felaketler g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcne al\u0131n\u0131rsa Washington\u2019un daha \u00f6nce giri\u015fti\u011fi Irak, Afganistan ve Vietnam gibi sava\u015flardan ders de almadan \u0130ran\u2019a bir m\u00fcdahalesi b\u00f6lge i\u00e7in bir felaket senaryosuna tekab\u00fcl ediyor.<\/p>\n
3 ABD askerinin \u00dcrd\u00fcn\u2019de \u00f6ld\u00fcr\u00fclmesinden[xxvi]<\/a> sonra ABD\u2019de \u2018\u0130ran\u2019\u0131 vurun\u2019 sesleri y\u00fckselmeye ba\u015flad\u0131. \u00d6zellikle Cumhuriyet\u00e7i senat\u00f6rler[xxvii]<\/a> bu konuda el y\u00fckseltiyorlar. Buna ra\u011fmen \u015fu ana kadar ABD cephesi rasyonel hareket etti ve \u0130ran’la daha b\u00fcy\u00fck bir kap\u0131\u015fmaya giri\u015fmekten ka\u00e7\u0131nd\u0131. Nitekim ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 b\u00f6lgesel bir sava\u015f\u0131 tetiklemek istemedi\u011fini[xxviii]<\/a> ancak ABD’nin \u0130ran’a kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k verece\u011fini a\u00e7\u0131k\u00e7a ifade etti. ABD D\u0131\u015fi\u015fleri Bakan\u0131 Anthony Blinken de benzer a\u00e7\u0131klamalarda bulunarak \u0130ran\u2019a cevab\u0131m\u0131z \u00e7ok katmanl\u0131[xxix]<\/a>, a\u015famal\u0131 ve uzun erimli olacak dedi. Bu durum, ABD’nin Suriye ve Irak’taki \u015eii milislere kar\u015f\u0131 d\u00fczenledi\u011fi misilleme hava sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131nda kristalize oldu. \u015eubat ay\u0131 ba\u015flar\u0131nda \u0130ran destekli milislere kar\u015f\u0131 Suriye ve Irak’ta 85 hedefe[xxx]<\/a> b\u00fcy\u00fck hava sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131 d\u00fczenlendi.<\/p>\nAncak mezk\u00fbr sald\u0131r\u0131lardan \u00f6nce \u0130ran destekli milisler ABD\u2019nin misilleme yapaca\u011f\u0131 beklentisiyle mevzilerini b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde bo\u015faltm\u0131\u015flard\u0131.[xxxi]<\/a> Buna ra\u011fmen Suriye ve Irak’ta ABD\u2019nin d\u00fczenledi\u011fi sald\u0131r\u0131larda aralar\u0131nda sivillerin de bulundu\u011fu kay\u0131plar[xxxii]<\/a> ya\u015fand\u0131. K\u0131sacas\u0131 Tahran iki arada bir derede kalm\u0131\u015f durumda. \u0130ran, ABD&\u0130srail sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131na sessiz kalamaz, aksi takdirde cayd\u0131r\u0131c\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 daha da sorgulan\u0131r hale gelir. Buna paralel olarak Tahran, kolay hedef g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc ABD m\u00fcttefiklerini hedef al\u0131yor. Erbil sald\u0131r\u0131s\u0131 ve son d\u00f6nemde ABD’nin Suriye’deki m\u00fcttefiki SDG’nin hedef al\u0131narak 6 ki\u015finin[xxxiii]<\/a> hayat\u0131n\u0131 kaybetmesi bu durumun g\u00f6stergesidir.<\/p>\nWashington ve Tahran, ABD’nin Suriye ve Irak’tan \u00e7ekilece\u011fi y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki s\u00f6ylentilerin[xxxiv]<\/a> [xxxv]<\/a> ortas\u0131nda birbirlerine kar\u015f\u0131 bir y\u0131pratma sava\u015f\u0131 ba\u015flatt\u0131lar ve \u015fu ana kadar do\u011frudan geni\u015f \u00e7apl\u0131 bir \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmadan ka\u00e7\u0131nd\u0131lar. Ancak Ortado\u011fu’nun mevcut siyasi ve askeri iklimi, h\u00e2lihaz\u0131rdaki ciddi gerilim nedeniyle durumun her an kontrolden \u00e7\u0131kabilece\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Uluslararas\u0131 ili\u015fkilerde t\u0131rmand\u0131rma siyasetinin (brinkmanship) bir s\u0131n\u0131r\u0131 var ve muhatab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131n her hamlesini \u00f6ng\u00f6rmeniz de m\u00fcmk\u00fcn de\u011fil.<\/p>\nABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Joe Biden Gazze krizinde g\u00f6sterdi\u011fi berbat y\u00f6netimin de etkisiyle yakla\u015fan ABD ba\u015fkanl\u0131k se\u00e7imlerinde yar\u0131\u015f\u0131 muhtemel rakibi Donald Trump\u2019a kaybetme[xxxvi]<\/a> ihtimali oldu\u011funu hi\u00e7 \u015f\u00fcphesiz ki g\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Kendisi i\u00e7in b\u00f6ylesine \u00f6nemli bir d\u00f6nemde ise \u00fclkesine Amerikan askerlerin tabutlar\u0131 ula\u015f\u0131yor ve \u00fczerindeki i\u00e7 siyasi bask\u0131 art\u0131yor. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla Biden\u2019\u0131n \u00fclkede prestijini kurtarma amac\u0131yla \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n pervas\u0131z sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131 nedeniyle Tahran\u2019a d\u00f6n\u00fck yeni bir maceraya at\u0131lma ihtimali yabana at\u0131l\u0131r bir risk de\u011fil. \u0130srail, ABD ve m\u00fcttefiklerine d\u00f6n\u00fck sald\u0131r\u0131lar \u00fczerinden destekledi\u011fi devlet d\u0131\u015f\u0131 silahl\u0131 akt\u00f6rler nezdinde kendisine g\u00fcveni konsolide etme hamlesi \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n topraklar\u0131n\u0131n vurulmas\u0131 ile neticelenecek mi bunu ancak zaman g\u00f6sterecek. \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n yanl\u0131\u015f hesaplamalar\u0131 sebebiyle t\u0131rmand\u0131rma stratejisi ters teper de ABD, \u0130ran topraklar\u0131na y\u00f6nelik bir sald\u0131r\u0131da bulunursa b\u00fct\u00fcn Ortado\u011fu cehenneme d\u00f6ner.<\/p>\nSonnotlar<\/strong><\/p>\n[i]<\/a> William Tobin ve Joseph Webster, Houthi attacks in the Red Sea hurt global trade and slow the energy transition, Atlantic Council, 25 Ocak 2024, https:\/\/www.atlanticcouncil.org\/blogs\/new-atlanticist\/houthi-attacks-in-the-red-sea-hurt-global-trade-and-slow-the-energy-transition\/<\/a><\/p>\n[ii]<\/a> Oren Liebermann ve Haley Britzky, US and UK strike Houthi targets in Yemen one day after US strikes in Iraq and Syria, CNN, 4 \u015eubat 2024, https:\/\/edition.cnn.com\/2024\/02\/03\/politics\/strikes-us-uk-houthi-yemen\/index.html<\/a><\/p>\n[iii]<\/a> Awad Al Rajoub, PROFILE \u2013 Saleh al-Arouri, Hamas deputy leader assassinated by Israel in Lebanon, Anadolu Agency, 2 Ocak 2024, https:\/\/www.aa.com.tr\/en\/middle-east\/profile-saleh-al-arouri-hamas-deputy-leader-assassinated-by-israel-in-lebanon\/3098622<\/a><\/p>\n[iv]<\/a> Iraq blames US-led coalition for deadly drone strike in Baghdad, Al Jazeera, 4 Ocak 2024, https:\/\/www.aljazeera.com\/news\/2024\/1\/4\/iraq-blames-us-led-coalition-for-baghdad-deadly-drone-strike<\/a><\/p>\n[v]<\/a> Israeli airstrike on Damascus killed at least 5 Iranian advisers, state media say, NPR, 20 Ocak 2024, https:\/\/www.npr.org\/2024\/01\/20\/1225792450\/reported-israeli-airstrike-on-damascus-kills-commander-with-irans-elite-force<\/a><\/p>\n[vi]<\/a> Iranian Militias, Syrian Regime Tussle Over \u2018Sayyida Zainab\u2019, The Syrian Observer, 17 May\u0131s 2021, https:\/\/syrianobserver.com\/features\/66142\/iranian-militias-syrian-regime-tussle-over-sayyida-zainab.html<\/a><\/p>\n[vii]<\/a> Israel Shifts Strategy in Syria: High-Profile Assassinations and New Dynamics in Russian-Israeli Relations, The Syrian Observer, 22 Ocak 2024, https:\/\/syrianobserver.com\/news\/87185\/israel-shifts-strategy-in-syria-high-profile-assassinations-and-new-dynamics-in-russian-israeli-relations.html<\/a><\/p>\n[viii]<\/a> Eyad Kourdi ve Jennifer Deaton, ISIS claims responsibility for deadliest attack in Iran since 1979 revolution, CNN, 5 Ocak 2024, https:\/\/edition.cnn.com\/2024\/01\/04\/middleeast\/iran-islamic-state-attack-kerman-intl\/index.html<\/a><\/p>\n[ix]<\/a> Iran executes four Kurdish political prisoners, Rudaw, 29 Ocak 2024, https:\/\/www.rudaw.net\/english\/middleeast\/iran\/29012024<\/a><\/p>\n[x]<\/a> Paul Iddon, What was behind Iran\u2019s deadly missile attack on Iraqi Kurdistan?, The New Arab, 17 Ocak 2024, https:\/\/www.newarab.com\/analysis\/what-was-behind-irans-missile-attack-iraqi-kurdistan<\/a><\/p>\n[xi]<\/a> Jonny Hallam, Asim Khan ve Helen Regan, Pakistan condemns deadly Iranian missile strike on its territory as tensions spike across region, CNN, 17 Ocak 2024, https:\/\/edition.cnn.com\/2024\/01\/17\/middleeast\/iran-missile-attack-pakistan-intl-hnk\/index.html<\/a><\/p>\n[xii]<\/a> Svetlana Ekimenko, Iran’s Strike on Erbil is ‘Deliberate & Calculated Move’ to Show Its Missile Abilities, Expert Says, Sputnik, 16 Ocak 2024, https:\/\/en.sputniknews.africa\/20240116\/1064640139.html<\/a><\/p>\n[xiii]<\/a> Iran Showcases Precision of \u201cKhaybar Shekan\u201d Ballistic Missile in Striking Targets in Iraq, Syria, Defence Security Asia, 17 Ocak 2024, https:\/\/defencesecurityasia.com\/en\/iran-khaybar-shekan-missile\/<\/a><\/p>\n[xiv]<\/a> Iran\u2019s Missile Diplomacy Towards the Kurdistan Region of Iraq: Local and Regional Messages, Raman Center for Research and Consultancy, 4 Eyl\u00fcl 2023, https:\/\/ramancenter.org\/en\/irans-missile-diplomacy-towards-the-kurdistan-region-of-iraq-local-and-regional-messages\/<\/a><\/p>\n[xv]<\/a> Hassan Mneimneh, \u2018Strategic Patience\u2019 and Iran\u2019s \u201cResistance Axis\u201d: An Enduring Challenge for Biden’s Administration, Washington Institute, 11 Aral\u0131k 2020, https:\/\/www.washingtoninstitute.org\/policy-analysis\/strategic-patience-and-irans-resistance-axis-enduring-challenge-bidens<\/a><\/p>\n[xvi]<\/a> Bkz. https:\/\/twitter.com\/alihashem_tv\/status\/1754207755399811363<\/a><\/p>\n[xvii]<\/a> Karwan Faidhi Dri, Who was the Kurdish businessman killed by Iranian missiles in Erbil?, Rudaw, 17 Ocak 2024, https:\/\/www.rudaw.net\/english\/kurdistan\/160120249<\/a><\/p>\n[xviii]<\/a> Iraq denies Iranian strikes targeted Mossad headquarters in Erbil, Anadolu Agency, 16 Ocak 2024, https:\/\/www.aa.com.tr\/en\/middle-east\/iraq-denies-iranian-strikes-targeted-mossad-headquarters-in-erbil\/3110492<\/a><\/p>\n[xix]<\/a> Heman Hussein Yassen, Iraqi businessman Dizayee killed with daughter on her 1st birthday in Iranian attack in Erbil, Anadolu Agency, 16 Ocak 2024, https:\/\/www.aa.com.tr\/en\/middle-east\/iraqi-businessman-dizayee-killed-with-daughter-on-her-1st-birthday-in-iranian-attack-in-erbil\/3110409<\/a><\/p>\n[xx]<\/a> Frances Mao, Caroline Davies ve Paul Adams, Pakistan launches retaliatory strikes into Iran, killing nine people, BBC, 18 Ocak 2024, https:\/\/www.bbc.com\/news\/world-asia-68014882<\/a><\/p>\n[xxi]<\/a> Riaz Khokhar ve Asma Khalid, Iran Has Conducted Strikes in Pakistan Before. This Time Was Different., The Diplomat, 26 Ocak 2024, https:\/\/thediplomat.com\/2024\/01\/iran-has-conducted-strikes-in-pakistan-before-this-time-was-different\/<\/a><\/p>\n[xxii]<\/a> Bkz. https:\/\/twitter.com\/omairanas\/status\/1747937277752254669<\/a><\/p>\n[xxiii]<\/a> Farhan Zahid, The Zainabiyoun Brigade: A Pakistani Shiite Militia Amid the Syrian Conflict, The Jamestown Foundation, 27 May\u0131s 2016, https:\/\/jamestown.org\/program\/the-zainabiyoun-brigade-a-pakistani-shiite-militia-amid-the-syrian-conflict\/<\/a><\/p>\n[xxiv]<\/a> Iraq takes \u2018Iranian aggression\u2019 case to the UN following Erbil attack, Rudaw, 16 Ocak 2024, https:\/\/www.rudaw.net\/english\/middleeast\/iraq\/16012024<\/a><\/p>\n[xxv]<\/a> Iraqi, Kurdish PMs cancel talks with Iran at Davos, The Cradle, 17 Ocak 2024, https:\/\/thecradle.co\/articles-id\/19290<\/a><\/p>\n[xxvi]<\/a> Eleanor Watson, Pentagon releases names of 3 soldiers killed in drone attack in Jordan, CBS News, 30 Ocak 2024, https:\/\/www.cbsnews.com\/news\/soldiers-killed-jordan-names\/<\/a><\/p>\n[xxvii]<\/a> Natasha Turak, Biden faces demands from Republicans in Congress to strike Iran after U.S. troop deaths, CNBC, 29 Ocak 2024, https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2024\/01\/29\/lawmakers-demanding-biden-strike-iran-after-us-troop-deaths-in-jordan-.html<\/a><\/p>\n[xxviii]<\/a> Felicia Schwartz ve James Politi, Can Biden respond to Iran-backed attack without escalating the war?, Financial Times, 30 Ocak 2024, https:\/\/www.ft.com\/content\/a5b3ded7-6c10-4586-a263-d884c78ef592<\/a><\/p>\n[xxix]<\/a> Stephen Collinson, Biden has to deal with a second war he didn\u2019t want. His task is to contain it, CNN, 31 Ocak 2024, https:\/\/edition.cnn.com\/2024\/01\/30\/politics\/biden-middle-east-war-analysis\/index.html<\/a><\/p>\n[xxx]<\/a> Natasha Bertrand, Haley Britzky, Oren Liebermann ve Kevin Liptak, US carries out retaliatory strikes on Iranian-linked militia targets in Iraq and Syria, CNN, 3 \u015eubat 2024, https:\/\/edition.cnn.com\/2024\/02\/02\/politics\/us-strikes-iraq-syria\/index.html<\/a><\/p>\n[xxxi]<\/a> Keir Simmons, Mo Abbas ve Khalid Razak, Wait for U.S. retaliatory strikes gives Iran-linked militias plenty of time to prepare, NBC News, 2 \u015eubat 2024, https:\/\/www.nbcnews.com\/news\/world\/israel-hamas-war-us-strikes-iran-militants-iraq-syria-rcna136934<\/a><\/p>\n[xxxii]<\/a> Iraq says 16 people, including civilians, killed in \u2018new US aggression\u2019, Al Jazeera, 3 \u015eubat 2024, https:\/\/www.aljazeera.com\/news\/2024\/2\/3\/us-warns-of-more-retaliatory-strikes-as-it-hits-iraq-syria-amid-gaza-war<\/a><\/p>\n[xxxiii]<\/a> Beatrice Farhat, 6 Kurdish SDF forces killed in Iran-linked attack on Syria base housing US troops, Al Monitor, 5 \u015eubat 2024, https:\/\/www.al-monitor.com\/originals\/2024\/02\/6-kurdish-sdf-forces-killed-iran-linked-attack-syria-base-housing-us-troops<\/a><\/p>\n[xxxiv]<\/a> Dan Lamothe ve Missy Ryan, U.S. signals it is open to withdrawing some troops from Iraq, Washington Post, 25 Ocak 2024, https:\/\/www.washingtonpost.com\/national-security\/2024\/01\/25\/iraq-syria-pentagon-military\/<\/a><\/p>\n[xxxv]<\/a> Charles Lister, America Is Planning to Withdraw From Syria\u2014and Create a Disaster, Foreign Policy, 24 Ocak 2024, https:\/\/foreignpolicy.com\/2024\/01\/24\/america-is-planning-to-withdraw-from-syria-and-create-a-disaster\/<\/a><\/p>\n[xxxvi]<\/a> Ryan King, Trump scores \u2018the biggest lead\u2019 yet against Biden in new NBC poll, New York Post, 4 \u015eubat 2024, https:\/\/nypost.com\/2024\/02\/04\/news\/trump-scores-the-biggest-lead-yet-against-biden-in-new-nbc-poll\/<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"\u0130ran son aylarda hakk\u0131nda en \u00e7ok konu\u015fulan \u00fclkelerden biri. \u00dclkede 1979 y\u0131l\u0131nda ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen devrimle \u0130ran \u0130slam Cumhuriyeti’nin kurulmas\u0131ndan bu yana Tahran devrim ihrac\u0131 projesini ba\u015flatm\u0131\u015f ve resmi s\u00f6yleminin odak noktas\u0131na Filistin ve Kud\u00fcs’\u00fcn kurtulu\u015funu koymu\u015ftu<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":57,"featured_media":37592,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","ngg_post_thumbnail":0},"categories":[361],"tags":[],"asf_pub_issue":[10319],"asf_pub_region":[10321,18939],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/37600"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/57"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=37600"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/37600\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":37608,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/37600\/revisions\/37608"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/37592"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=37600"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=37600"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=37600"},{"taxonomy":"asf_pub_issue","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/asf_pub_issue?post=37600"},{"taxonomy":"asf_pub_region","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/asf_pub_region?post=37600"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}
(Bu metin \u0130ngilizce orijinal versiyonundan terc\u00fcme edilmi\u015ftir.)<\/em><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n Giri\u015f<\/strong><\/p>\n \u0130ran son aylarda hakk\u0131nda en \u00e7ok konu\u015fulan \u00fclkelerden biri. \u00dclkede 1979 y\u0131l\u0131nda ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen devrimle \u0130ran \u0130slam Cumhuriyeti’nin kurulmas\u0131ndan bu yana Tahran devrim ihrac\u0131 projesini ba\u015flatm\u0131\u015f ve resmi s\u00f6yleminin odak noktas\u0131na Filistin ve Kud\u00fcs’\u00fcn kurtulu\u015funu koymu\u015ftu. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla, Hamas’\u0131n Aksa Tufan\u0131 Operasyonu akabinde, Gazze \u0130srail taraf\u0131ndan tarumar edilirken ve Filistin \u00e7ok hararetli bir d\u00f6nemden ge\u00e7erken, siyasi g\u00fc\u00e7 merkezlerinde \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n ad\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6n plana \u00e7\u0131kmamas\u0131 beklenemezdi.<\/p>\n Ne var ki \u0130ran, \u015fu ana kadar att\u0131\u011f\u0131 ad\u0131mlarla, muar\u0131zlar\u0131n\u0131n ele\u015ftirileri g\u00f6z ard\u0131 edilse dahi, m\u00fcttefiklerini dahi memnun edememi\u015f vaziyette ve ittifak a\u011flar\u0131nda belli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde bir hayal k\u0131r\u0131kl\u0131\u011f\u0131na sebebiyet vermi\u015f durumda. Tahran, Arap Bahar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131 ke\u015fmeke\u015fin sundu\u011fu f\u0131rsat pencerelerinden yararlanarak Suriye, Irak, Yemen ve Hizbullah \u00fczerinden L\u00fcbnan\u2019daki etkisini artt\u0131rm\u0131\u015f ve bahse konu \u00fclkelerin siyasetleri \u00fczerinde ciddi bir n\u00fcfuz-daha do\u011fru bir ibareyle tasallut veya vesayet-olu\u015fturmu\u015f halde. Bununla birlikte Gazze yerle yeksan edilirken Tahran sava\u015fa do\u011frudan do\u011fruya m\u00fcdahil olmayarak, devlet d\u0131\u015f\u0131 vekil \u00f6rg\u00fctleri \u00fczerinden \u0130srail ve ABD ile bir \u2018bilek g\u00fcre\u015fine\u2019 ya da g\u00fc\u00e7 m\u00fccadelesine giri\u015fti. B\u00f6ylesi bir s\u00fcre\u00e7te en \u00f6n plana \u00e7\u0131kan yap\u0131 ise Yemen\u2019deki Husiler oldu. Yapt\u0131klar\u0131 sald\u0131r\u0131larla K\u0131z\u0131ldeniz ve Bab\u00fclmendep Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndaki uluslararas\u0131 ticareti[i]<\/a> ciddi bir \u015fekilde etkileyen Husiler, ABD ve \u0130ngiltere\u2019nin gazab\u0131n\u0131 \u00fczerlerine \u00e7ekerek sald\u0131r\u0131lara[ii]<\/a> maruz kald\u0131lar. Buna ra\u011fmen, Tahran, Gazze kriziyle birlikte Husilerden adeta ikinci bir Hizbullah yaratma misyonunda \u00f6nemli oranda yol alm\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Daha a\u00e7\u0131k bir ifadeyle s\u00f6yleyecek olursak Arap Bahar\u0131 sonras\u0131nda Husiler\/Yemen Tahran i\u00e7in bir g\u00fcvenli kale haline geldi. Muhtelif medya organlar\u0131nda Husiler i\u00e7in kullan\u0131lan \u2018Yemen Silahl\u0131 Kuvvetleri\u2019 gibi yak\u0131\u015ft\u0131rmalar, yap\u0131n\u0131n me\u015fruiyet kazanma \u00e7abas\u0131nda a\u015fama kat etti\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n Tahran, mevcut hamlelerini yaparken de konforlu addedilebilecek bir alanda duruyor. Zira Tahran ittifak ili\u015fkisi i\u00e7erisinde oldu\u011fu silahl\u0131 \u00f6rg\u00fctlerin ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z \u015fekilde kararlar ald\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 iddia ederek, \u0130ran’\u0131n kimseye emir vermedi\u011fini belirtiyor. B\u00f6ylelikle makul ink\u00e2r edilebilirli\u011fe (plausible deniability) s\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131yor. B\u00f6ylesi bir strateji ile Tahran proksilerinin yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 eylemlerin ekonomik, siyasi, hukuki ve askeri sonu\u00e7lar\u0131ndan ka\u00e7\u0131nmaya \u00e7abal\u0131yor ancak bunda ne karar ba\u015far\u0131l\u0131 oldu\u011fu ayr\u0131 bir tart\u0131\u015fma konusu.<\/p>\n \u0130ran Devrim Muhaf\u0131zlar\u0131 Ordusu ve Tahran Destekli Milisler Ate\u015f Alt\u0131nda<\/strong><\/p>\n Tahran\u2019\u0131n \u0130srail ile do\u011frudan do\u011fruya sava\u015fa giri\u015fmemi\u015f olmas\u0131, Tel Aviv ve Washington\u2019u \u0130ran Devrim Muhaf\u0131zlar\u0131 Ordusu mensuplar\u0131n\u0131n yan\u0131 s\u0131ra Tahran destekli milisleri vurmaktan cayd\u0131rmad\u0131. Gazze sava\u015f\u0131n\u0131n ba\u015flang\u0131c\u0131ndan beri, ABD-\u0130srail ikilisi L\u00fcbnan, Irak, Suriye ve Yemen\u2019de \u0130ran destekli \u00fcst d\u00fczey fig\u00fcrleri hedef ald\u0131. Hamas Siyasi B\u00fcro Ba\u015fkan Yard\u0131mc\u0131s\u0131 Salih el-Aruri L\u00fcbnan’da suikasta[iii]<\/a> kurban giderken, Ha\u015fdi \u015eabi komutan\u0131 Ebu Takva es-Saidi[iv]<\/a> Irak’ta hedef al\u0131nd\u0131. Devrim Muhaf\u0131zlar\u0131 Generali R\u0131za Musevi ise \u015eam’da \u00f6ld\u00fcr\u00fcld\u00fc. Ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz g\u00fcnlerde \u0130ran’\u0131n kalelerinden[v]<\/a> biri olarak bilinen \u015eam’\u0131n Seyyide Zeyneb t\u00fcrbesi civar\u0131nda da aralar\u0131nda \u0130ran Devrim Muhaf\u0131zlar\u0131 Ordusu-Kud\u00fcs G\u00fcc\u00fc\u2019n\u00fcn Suriye istihbarat\u0131ndan sorumlu ismi Sad\u0131k \u00dcmidzade\u2019nin[vi]<\/a> de bulundu\u011fu 5 Devrim Muhaf\u0131z\u0131 \u00fcyesi \u00f6ld\u00fcr\u00fcld\u00fc. Burada \u015fu noktay\u0131 not etmek \u00f6nemli: Gazze sava\u015f\u0131 patlak verdikten sonra \u0130srail, \u0130ran\u2019a kar\u015f\u0131 bir strateji de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fine[vii]<\/a> gitmi\u015f durumda. Tel Aviv, sava\u015ftan \u00f6nce \u00f6rne\u011fin Suriye\u2019de \u0130ran’a ait depo, donan\u0131m vb. yerleri hedef al\u0131yordu. Ancak Gazze krizinin ard\u0131ndan Tel Aviv do\u011frudan \u00fcst d\u00fczey isimleri ve Devrim Muhaf\u0131zlar\u0131’na ba\u011fl\u0131 ve \u0130srail\u2019e d\u00f6n\u00fck sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131 planlayan ki\u015fileri hedef almaya ba\u015flad\u0131.<\/p>\n Bask\u0131 Alt\u0131ndaki Tahran ve \u0130rrasyonalitenin Galebe \u00c7almas\u0131<\/strong><\/p>\n \u0130srail ve ABD taraf\u0131ndan \u00fcst d\u00fczey askeri liderlerinin vurulmas\u0131 ve destekledi\u011fi silahl\u0131 \u00f6rg\u00fctlerin de hedef tahtas\u0131na konulmas\u0131 nedeniyle Tahran ciddi bir bask\u0131 alt\u0131na girmi\u015f durumda. Zira, \u00fclke \u015fu ana kadar kendisinden beklenen \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde Gazze krizine m\u00fcdahil olmad\u0131 ve bu da m\u00fcttefiklerinin en az\u0131ndan bir k\u0131sm\u0131nda bir hayal k\u0131r\u0131kl\u0131\u011f\u0131 olu\u015fturdu. Bunun da \u00f6tesinde \u0130ran topraklar\u0131 d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda vurulan Devrim Muhaf\u0131zlar\u0131 mensubu \u00fcst d\u00fczey askeri liderlerin cenazelerinin Tahran\u2019a varmas\u0131 \u00fclkenin i\u00e7 siyasetinde do\u011fal olarak gerilimi art\u0131ran bir unsur. Bu yetmezmi\u015f gibi Kirman\u2019da[viii]<\/a> I\u015e\u0130D\u2019in ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirdi\u011fi ve onlarca ki\u015finin \u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcne y\u00fczlerce ki\u015finin de yaralanmas\u0131na neden olan ter\u00f6r sald\u0131r\u0131s\u0131 da Tahran\u2019da siyasi atmosferi gerginle\u015ftirdi. Bu gergin atmosfere ise \u0130ran i\u00e7 siyasetinde daha sert \u00f6nlemler alarak cevap veriyor. Tahran\u2019dan son d\u00f6nemde ard\u0131 ard\u0131na gelen siyasi mahk\u00fbmlar\u0131n idam[ix]<\/a> haberleri herkesin malumu. \u00dcstelik T\u00fcrkiye ve Suudi Arabistan gibi \u00fclkeler, Gazze sava\u015f\u0131na \u015fu ana kadar Tahran\u2019\u0131n bekledi\u011fi \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde tepki g\u00f6stermemeleri ve \u0130srail ile ba\u011flar\u0131n\u0131 koparmamalar\u0131 nedeniyle \u0130ran medyas\u0131nda s\u00fcrekli ele\u015ftiriliyor. Bu t\u00fcr ele\u015ftiriler \u00fclkenin i\u00e7erisinden ge\u00e7ti\u011fi k\u00f6t\u00fc durumu bir \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde unutturma, i\u00e7 siyasi gerginli\u011fi azaltma ve dikkatleri ba\u015fka noktaya \u00e7ekme ba\u011flam\u0131nda okunabilir.<\/p>\n Alabildi\u011fine kritik ve gergin b\u00f6ylesine bir s\u00fcre\u00e7te Tahran\u2019daki siyaset yap\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131n en az\u0131ndan kom\u015fu \u00fclkelere kar\u015f\u0131 d\u00fc\u015fmanla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131c\u0131 eylemlere giri\u015fmemesi ve ittifak olu\u015fturma gayretlerine h\u0131z vermesi beklenirdi. Ancak, Tahran \u00fczerindeki bask\u0131 dozaj\u0131 artt\u0131k\u00e7a daha irrasyonel hareketlere giri\u015fiyor. Yani \u0130ran\u2019da irrasyonalite itidale galebe \u00e7al\u0131yor. \u0130srail ve ABD s\u00fcrekli olarak \u0130ran’\u0131n destekledi\u011fi devlet d\u0131\u015f\u0131 silahl\u0131 akt\u00f6rleri hedef al\u0131rken Tahran, Irak K\u00fcrdistan B\u00f6lgesi’nin ba\u015fkenti Erbil’i[x]<\/a> ve Suriye’de \u0130dlib’i balistik f\u00fczeler ve insans\u0131z hava ara\u00e7lar\u0131yla vurdu. Daha sonra, Belu\u00e7 ter\u00f6r \u00f6rg\u00fctleri bahanesiyle Pakistan’a[xi]<\/a> sald\u0131rd\u0131- ki bu Pakistan’\u0131n misillemesi g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcne al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda ters tepen bir hamle oldu. \u0130ran\u2019dan Erbil ve \u0130dlib\u2019e do\u011fru ate\u015flenen f\u00fczelerin 1200 km[xii]<\/a> uzakl\u0131ktaki hedefleri vurmas\u0131, totalde ise 1450 kilometrelik[xiii]<\/a> bir menzile sahip olduklar\u0131n\u0131n s\u00f6ylenmesi \u0130srail\u2019e d\u00f6n\u00fck bir mesaj olarak g\u00f6r\u00fclebilir. Yine de 2020 y\u0131l\u0131ndan bu yana \u0130ran destekli milislerce hedef al\u0131nan Erbil\u2019in daha \u00f6nce e\u015fi g\u00f6r\u00fclmedik \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde b\u00fcy\u00fck bir sald\u0131r\u0131ya maruz kalmas\u0131 ve f\u00fczelerin hedef ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 yerdeki devasa y\u0131k\u0131m beklenmeyen bir hamle idi. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla Erbil sald\u0131r\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n \u2018roket diplomasisinde\u2019[xiv]<\/a> yeni bir a\u015fama oldu\u011fu a\u00e7\u0131k.<\/p>\n Stratejik Sab\u0131r: Quo Vadis?<\/strong><\/p>\n \u0130ran devlet akl\u0131 Devrim Muhaf\u0131zlar\u0131 Ordusu Kud\u00fcs G\u00fcc\u00fc Komutan\u0131 Kas\u0131m S\u00fcleymani\u2019nin Ocak 2020\u2019de Ba\u011fdat\u2019ta ABD taraf\u0131ndan \u00f6ld\u00fcr\u00fclmesinden sonra \u2018stratejik sab\u0131r\u2019[xv]<\/a> konseptini \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kard\u0131 ve ABD\u2019ye kar\u015f\u0131 ba\u015ftaki intikam vaatlerine kar\u015f\u0131 uzun vadeli bir m\u00fccadele i\u00e7erisine giri\u015fti. Nitekim o g\u00fcnden bu yana ABD\u2019ye \u00e7ok ciddi manada zarar verebilecek bir eylemin i\u00e7erisine girmedi Tahran. ABD Eski Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump\u2019un ifadeleri[xvi]<\/a> do\u011fru ise \u0130ran, Irak\u2019ta vuraca\u011f\u0131 ABD hedefleri i\u00e7in Washington\u2019u uyard\u0131 bile. K\u0131saca geride kalan d\u00f6rt y\u0131lda \u0130ran taraf\u0131ndan uzun erimli stratejiler ve milis yap\u0131lar\u0131n sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131 \u00fczerinden ABD\u2019ye zarar verilmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131ld\u0131. Ancak son d\u00f6nemde yang\u0131n yerine d\u00f6nen Ortado\u011fu\u2019da ya\u015fananlar ve \u0130ran destekli milislerin ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirdi\u011fi bir sald\u0131r\u0131n\u0131n \u00dcrd\u00fcn\u2019de 3 ABD askerinin \u00f6lmesine onlarcas\u0131n\u0131n da yaralanmas\u0131na sebebiyet vermesi Tahran\u2019\u0131n bir \u2018stratejik a\u00e7maza\u2019 saplanabilece\u011fine delalet ediyor. ABD askerlerinin \u00f6ld\u00fcr\u00fclmesi sebebiyle olu\u015fan ciddi gerilim t\u0131rmanmas\u0131 \u0130ran i\u00e7in risk dozaj\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131yor. \u015e\u00f6yle ki, \u0130ran \u00fczerindeki m\u00fcttefik bask\u0131lar\u0131 artt\u0131k\u00e7a-Tahran’\u0131n devlet d\u0131\u015f\u0131 silahl\u0131 m\u00fcttefikleri nezdinde g\u00fcven kayb\u0131na u\u011framak istemedi\u011fi ger\u00e7e\u011fi de g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcne al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda-\u00fclke ataca\u011f\u0131 ad\u0131mlarda rasyonaliteden uzakla\u015f\u0131yor. Rasyonaliteden uzakla\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131 neticesinde \u0130ran, d\u00fc\u015fmanla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lmamas\u0131 gereken kom\u015fu \u00fclkelere sald\u0131r\u0131yor.<\/p>\n Bu silsile neticesinde \u00e7ok ciddi hatalar meydana geliyor. Ocak ay\u0131 ortas\u0131nda \u0130ran Devrim Muhaf\u0131zlar\u0131 Ordusu Erbil\u2019de bir K\u00fcrt i\u015f adam\u0131n\u0131n[xvii]<\/a> evini Mossad kararg\u00e2h\u0131[xviii]<\/a> oldu\u011fu iddias\u0131yla balistik f\u00fczelerle hedef ald\u0131. Sald\u0131r\u0131da mezk\u00fbr i\u015f adam\u0131, bir ya\u015f\u0131ndaki bebe\u011fi[xix]<\/a> ve yan\u0131ndaki \u00fc\u00e7 ki\u015fi hayat\u0131n\u0131 kaybetti. Bu hata yetmezmi\u015f gibi, \u0130ran taraf\u0131ndan n\u00fckleer bir g\u00fc\u00e7 olan Pakistan’a da sald\u0131r\u0131ld\u0131 ki bu stratejik bir hatayd\u0131. \u0130ran’\u0131n, Pakistan’\u0131 hedef alman\u0131n Suriye’yi veya Erbil’i hedef almaya benzemedi\u011fini anlamas\u0131 nitekim uzun s\u00fcrmedi. Pakistan h\u0131zl\u0131 bir \u015fekilde \u0130ran\u2019a misillemede bulundu. Pakistan\u2019\u0131n \u0130ran topraklar\u0131n\u0131 yine Tahran\u2019\u0131n \u00f6ne s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc Belu\u00e7 ter\u00f6r \u00f6rg\u00fctleri bahanesiyle hedef almas\u0131[xx]<\/a> nedeniyle bug\u00fcn \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n hava savunma sistemleri ve Tahran\u2019\u0131n cayd\u0131r\u0131c\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 sorgulan\u0131r[xxi]<\/a> h\u00e2le gelmi\u015f vaziyette. Suudi Arabistan ve T\u00fcrkiye gibi b\u00f6lgenin a\u011f\u0131r toplar\u0131n\u0131n \u0130ran\u2019da bu ya\u015fananlar\u0131 yak\u0131ndan takip etti\u011fine ve h\u00e2lihaz\u0131rda vuku bulanlar\u0131n Ankara ve Riyad\u2019\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki zaman diliminde atacaklar\u0131 ad\u0131mlarda referans noktas\u0131 te\u015fkil edece\u011fi izahtan vareste. Buna ra\u011fmen ter\u00f6r bahanesinin bir bumerang i\u015flevi g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc \u0130ran idrak eder mi bu bahs-i di\u011fer.<\/p>\n Her ne kadar \u0130ran, Ortado\u011fu’da destekledi\u011fi silahl\u0131 \u00f6rg\u00fctler \u00fczerinden g\u00fc\u00e7 kazan\u0131yor gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcnse de att\u0131\u011f\u0131 ad\u0131mlar siyasi alanda b\u00f6lge ve kom\u015fu \u00fclke ba\u015fkentleriyle aras\u0131n\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 riske ediyor. Ba\u015fka bir deyi\u015fle \u0130ran’\u0131n uluslararas\u0131 arenada yaln\u0131zla\u015fma riski hi\u00e7 olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 kadar b\u00fcy\u00fck. \u00d6rne\u011fin Pakistan halk\u0131 nezdinde \u0130ran\u2019a d\u00f6n\u00fck ciddi sempatinin[xxii]<\/a> yap\u0131lan son sald\u0131r\u0131 nedeniyle azalm\u0131\u015f olmas\u0131 \u00e7ok olas\u0131. Dahas\u0131 \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n Suriye\u2019de Zeynebiyyun Tugay\u0131[xxiii]<\/a> ad\u0131 alt\u0131nda y\u00fczlerce Pakistanl\u0131y\u0131 Esed rejimi saflar\u0131nda sava\u015ft\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131 biliniyor. Bu andan itibaren \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n Pakistan\u2019dan \u015eii milis dev\u015firmesi de riske girebilir. \u00d6zetle, Pakistan\u2019a sald\u0131r\u0131 sonras\u0131 \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n elinde kalan n\u00fckleer silaha sahip 200 milyondan fazla bir n\u00fcfusa sahip bir kom\u015fusuyla yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131 l\u00fczumsuz gerginlik oldu.<\/p>\n Yukar\u0131dakilere ek olarak, Erbil sald\u0131r\u0131s\u0131 sonras\u0131nda Irak\u2019ta da \u0130ran\u2019a beklenmeyen d\u00fczeyde bir tepki g\u00f6sterildi. \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n \u015eii siyasi gruplar ve milisler \u00fczerinden Ba\u011fdat siyaseti \u00fczerinde olu\u015fturdu\u011fu siyasi n\u00fcfuz nedeniyle tepkinin dozaj\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6zellikle \u015fa\u015f\u0131rt\u0131c\u0131 oldu\u011fu s\u00f6ylenebilir. Irak D\u0131\u015fi\u015fleri Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n Erbil sald\u0131r\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 k\u0131nay\u0131p[xxiv]<\/a> Tahran\u2019\u0131 \u2018sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 Birle\u015fmi\u015f Milletler G\u00fcvenlik Konseyi\u2019ne ta\u015f\u0131yabiliriz\u2019 diye tehdit etti. Buna ek olarak, Irak Ba\u015fbakan\u0131, kendisi de \u0130ran destekli \u015eii gruplar\u0131n deste\u011fine sahip Muhammed \u015eiya Sudani, Davos\u2019ta \u0130ran D\u0131\u015fi\u015fleri Bakan\u0131 H\u00fcseyin Emirabdullahiyan ile beklenen g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmesini iptal etti.[xxv]<\/a><\/p>\n N\u00fckleer G\u00fcc\u00fcn Cayd\u0131r\u0131c\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve Sonu\u00e7<\/strong><\/p>\n \u0130ran her ne kadar n\u00fckleer bir g\u00fc\u00e7 oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc i\u00e7in ABD\u2019nin kendi topraklar\u0131n\u0131 do\u011frudan do\u011fruya hedef alamayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnse de Washington bu kadar rasyonel davran\u0131r m\u0131 bilinmez. Gazze sava\u015f\u0131n\u0131n ba\u015flang\u0131c\u0131ndan beri ne Tahran ne de Washington do\u011frudan do\u011fruya kar\u015f\u0131 gelmek istedi. \u0130ki taraf\u0131n kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya gelmesini en \u00e7ok isteyen ki\u015finin ise \u0130srail\u2019deki siyasi \u00f6mr\u00fcn\u00fc uzatmak i\u00e7in her \u015feyi yapmaya haz\u0131r olan \u0130srail Ba\u015fbakan\u0131 Binyamin Netanyahu oldu\u011fu ortada. D\u00fcnya siyasi tarihinde liderlerin irrasyonel kararlar\u0131n yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131 felaketler g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcne al\u0131n\u0131rsa Washington\u2019un daha \u00f6nce giri\u015fti\u011fi Irak, Afganistan ve Vietnam gibi sava\u015flardan ders de almadan \u0130ran\u2019a bir m\u00fcdahalesi b\u00f6lge i\u00e7in bir felaket senaryosuna tekab\u00fcl ediyor.<\/p>\n 3 ABD askerinin \u00dcrd\u00fcn\u2019de \u00f6ld\u00fcr\u00fclmesinden[xxvi]<\/a> sonra ABD\u2019de \u2018\u0130ran\u2019\u0131 vurun\u2019 sesleri y\u00fckselmeye ba\u015flad\u0131. \u00d6zellikle Cumhuriyet\u00e7i senat\u00f6rler[xxvii]<\/a> bu konuda el y\u00fckseltiyorlar. Buna ra\u011fmen \u015fu ana kadar ABD cephesi rasyonel hareket etti ve \u0130ran’la daha b\u00fcy\u00fck bir kap\u0131\u015fmaya giri\u015fmekten ka\u00e7\u0131nd\u0131. Nitekim ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 b\u00f6lgesel bir sava\u015f\u0131 tetiklemek istemedi\u011fini[xxviii]<\/a> ancak ABD’nin \u0130ran’a kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k verece\u011fini a\u00e7\u0131k\u00e7a ifade etti. ABD D\u0131\u015fi\u015fleri Bakan\u0131 Anthony Blinken de benzer a\u00e7\u0131klamalarda bulunarak \u0130ran\u2019a cevab\u0131m\u0131z \u00e7ok katmanl\u0131[xxix]<\/a>, a\u015famal\u0131 ve uzun erimli olacak dedi. Bu durum, ABD’nin Suriye ve Irak’taki \u015eii milislere kar\u015f\u0131 d\u00fczenledi\u011fi misilleme hava sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131nda kristalize oldu. \u015eubat ay\u0131 ba\u015flar\u0131nda \u0130ran destekli milislere kar\u015f\u0131 Suriye ve Irak’ta 85 hedefe[xxx]<\/a> b\u00fcy\u00fck hava sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131 d\u00fczenlendi.<\/p>\n Ancak mezk\u00fbr sald\u0131r\u0131lardan \u00f6nce \u0130ran destekli milisler ABD\u2019nin misilleme yapaca\u011f\u0131 beklentisiyle mevzilerini b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde bo\u015faltm\u0131\u015flard\u0131.[xxxi]<\/a> Buna ra\u011fmen Suriye ve Irak’ta ABD\u2019nin d\u00fczenledi\u011fi sald\u0131r\u0131larda aralar\u0131nda sivillerin de bulundu\u011fu kay\u0131plar[xxxii]<\/a> ya\u015fand\u0131. K\u0131sacas\u0131 Tahran iki arada bir derede kalm\u0131\u015f durumda. \u0130ran, ABD&\u0130srail sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131na sessiz kalamaz, aksi takdirde cayd\u0131r\u0131c\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 daha da sorgulan\u0131r hale gelir. Buna paralel olarak Tahran, kolay hedef g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc ABD m\u00fcttefiklerini hedef al\u0131yor. Erbil sald\u0131r\u0131s\u0131 ve son d\u00f6nemde ABD’nin Suriye’deki m\u00fcttefiki SDG’nin hedef al\u0131narak 6 ki\u015finin[xxxiii]<\/a> hayat\u0131n\u0131 kaybetmesi bu durumun g\u00f6stergesidir.<\/p>\n Washington ve Tahran, ABD’nin Suriye ve Irak’tan \u00e7ekilece\u011fi y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki s\u00f6ylentilerin[xxxiv]<\/a> [xxxv]<\/a> ortas\u0131nda birbirlerine kar\u015f\u0131 bir y\u0131pratma sava\u015f\u0131 ba\u015flatt\u0131lar ve \u015fu ana kadar do\u011frudan geni\u015f \u00e7apl\u0131 bir \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmadan ka\u00e7\u0131nd\u0131lar. Ancak Ortado\u011fu’nun mevcut siyasi ve askeri iklimi, h\u00e2lihaz\u0131rdaki ciddi gerilim nedeniyle durumun her an kontrolden \u00e7\u0131kabilece\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Uluslararas\u0131 ili\u015fkilerde t\u0131rmand\u0131rma siyasetinin (brinkmanship) bir s\u0131n\u0131r\u0131 var ve muhatab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131n her hamlesini \u00f6ng\u00f6rmeniz de m\u00fcmk\u00fcn de\u011fil.<\/p>\n ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Joe Biden Gazze krizinde g\u00f6sterdi\u011fi berbat y\u00f6netimin de etkisiyle yakla\u015fan ABD ba\u015fkanl\u0131k se\u00e7imlerinde yar\u0131\u015f\u0131 muhtemel rakibi Donald Trump\u2019a kaybetme[xxxvi]<\/a> ihtimali oldu\u011funu hi\u00e7 \u015f\u00fcphesiz ki g\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Kendisi i\u00e7in b\u00f6ylesine \u00f6nemli bir d\u00f6nemde ise \u00fclkesine Amerikan askerlerin tabutlar\u0131 ula\u015f\u0131yor ve \u00fczerindeki i\u00e7 siyasi bask\u0131 art\u0131yor. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla Biden\u2019\u0131n \u00fclkede prestijini kurtarma amac\u0131yla \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n pervas\u0131z sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131 nedeniyle Tahran\u2019a d\u00f6n\u00fck yeni bir maceraya at\u0131lma ihtimali yabana at\u0131l\u0131r bir risk de\u011fil. \u0130srail, ABD ve m\u00fcttefiklerine d\u00f6n\u00fck sald\u0131r\u0131lar \u00fczerinden destekledi\u011fi devlet d\u0131\u015f\u0131 silahl\u0131 akt\u00f6rler nezdinde kendisine g\u00fcveni konsolide etme hamlesi \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n topraklar\u0131n\u0131n vurulmas\u0131 ile neticelenecek mi bunu ancak zaman g\u00f6sterecek. \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n yanl\u0131\u015f hesaplamalar\u0131 sebebiyle t\u0131rmand\u0131rma stratejisi ters teper de ABD, \u0130ran topraklar\u0131na y\u00f6nelik bir sald\u0131r\u0131da bulunursa b\u00fct\u00fcn Ortado\u011fu cehenneme d\u00f6ner.<\/p>\n Sonnotlar<\/strong><\/p>\n [i]<\/a> William Tobin ve Joseph Webster, Houthi attacks in the Red Sea hurt global trade and slow the energy transition, Atlantic Council, 25 Ocak 2024, https:\/\/www.atlanticcouncil.org\/blogs\/new-atlanticist\/houthi-attacks-in-the-red-sea-hurt-global-trade-and-slow-the-energy-transition\/<\/a><\/p>\n [ii]<\/a> Oren Liebermann ve Haley Britzky, US and UK strike Houthi targets in Yemen one day after US strikes in Iraq and Syria, CNN, 4 \u015eubat 2024, https:\/\/edition.cnn.com\/2024\/02\/03\/politics\/strikes-us-uk-houthi-yemen\/index.html<\/a><\/p>\n [iii]<\/a> Awad Al Rajoub, PROFILE \u2013 Saleh al-Arouri, Hamas deputy leader assassinated by Israel in Lebanon, Anadolu Agency, 2 Ocak 2024, https:\/\/www.aa.com.tr\/en\/middle-east\/profile-saleh-al-arouri-hamas-deputy-leader-assassinated-by-israel-in-lebanon\/3098622<\/a><\/p>\n [iv]<\/a> Iraq blames US-led coalition for deadly drone strike in Baghdad, Al Jazeera, 4 Ocak 2024, https:\/\/www.aljazeera.com\/news\/2024\/1\/4\/iraq-blames-us-led-coalition-for-baghdad-deadly-drone-strike<\/a><\/p>\n [v]<\/a> Israeli airstrike on Damascus killed at least 5 Iranian advisers, state media say, NPR, 20 Ocak 2024, https:\/\/www.npr.org\/2024\/01\/20\/1225792450\/reported-israeli-airstrike-on-damascus-kills-commander-with-irans-elite-force<\/a><\/p>\n [vi]<\/a> Iranian Militias, Syrian Regime Tussle Over \u2018Sayyida Zainab\u2019, The Syrian Observer, 17 May\u0131s 2021, https:\/\/syrianobserver.com\/features\/66142\/iranian-militias-syrian-regime-tussle-over-sayyida-zainab.html<\/a><\/p>\n [vii]<\/a> Israel Shifts Strategy in Syria: High-Profile Assassinations and New Dynamics in Russian-Israeli Relations, The Syrian Observer, 22 Ocak 2024, https:\/\/syrianobserver.com\/news\/87185\/israel-shifts-strategy-in-syria-high-profile-assassinations-and-new-dynamics-in-russian-israeli-relations.html<\/a><\/p>\n [viii]<\/a> Eyad Kourdi ve Jennifer Deaton, ISIS claims responsibility for deadliest attack in Iran since 1979 revolution, CNN, 5 Ocak 2024, https:\/\/edition.cnn.com\/2024\/01\/04\/middleeast\/iran-islamic-state-attack-kerman-intl\/index.html<\/a><\/p>\n [ix]<\/a> Iran executes four Kurdish political prisoners, Rudaw, 29 Ocak 2024, https:\/\/www.rudaw.net\/english\/middleeast\/iran\/29012024<\/a><\/p>\n [x]<\/a> Paul Iddon, What was behind Iran\u2019s deadly missile attack on Iraqi Kurdistan?, The New Arab, 17 Ocak 2024, https:\/\/www.newarab.com\/analysis\/what-was-behind-irans-missile-attack-iraqi-kurdistan<\/a><\/p>\n [xi]<\/a> Jonny Hallam, Asim Khan ve Helen Regan, Pakistan condemns deadly Iranian missile strike on its territory as tensions spike across region, CNN, 17 Ocak 2024, https:\/\/edition.cnn.com\/2024\/01\/17\/middleeast\/iran-missile-attack-pakistan-intl-hnk\/index.html<\/a><\/p>\n [xii]<\/a> Svetlana Ekimenko, Iran’s Strike on Erbil is ‘Deliberate & Calculated Move’ to Show Its Missile Abilities, Expert Says, Sputnik, 16 Ocak 2024, https:\/\/en.sputniknews.africa\/20240116\/1064640139.html<\/a><\/p>\n [xiii]<\/a> Iran Showcases Precision of \u201cKhaybar Shekan\u201d Ballistic Missile in Striking Targets in Iraq, Syria, Defence Security Asia, 17 Ocak 2024, https:\/\/defencesecurityasia.com\/en\/iran-khaybar-shekan-missile\/<\/a><\/p>\n [xiv]<\/a> Iran\u2019s Missile Diplomacy Towards the Kurdistan Region of Iraq: Local and Regional Messages, Raman Center for Research and Consultancy, 4 Eyl\u00fcl 2023, https:\/\/ramancenter.org\/en\/irans-missile-diplomacy-towards-the-kurdistan-region-of-iraq-local-and-regional-messages\/<\/a><\/p>\n [xv]<\/a> Hassan Mneimneh, \u2018Strategic Patience\u2019 and Iran\u2019s \u201cResistance Axis\u201d: An Enduring Challenge for Biden’s Administration, Washington Institute, 11 Aral\u0131k 2020, https:\/\/www.washingtoninstitute.org\/policy-analysis\/strategic-patience-and-irans-resistance-axis-enduring-challenge-bidens<\/a><\/p>\n [xvi]<\/a> Bkz. https:\/\/twitter.com\/alihashem_tv\/status\/1754207755399811363<\/a><\/p>\n [xvii]<\/a> Karwan Faidhi Dri, Who was the Kurdish businessman killed by Iranian missiles in Erbil?, Rudaw, 17 Ocak 2024, https:\/\/www.rudaw.net\/english\/kurdistan\/160120249<\/a><\/p>\n [xviii]<\/a> Iraq denies Iranian strikes targeted Mossad headquarters in Erbil, Anadolu Agency, 16 Ocak 2024, https:\/\/www.aa.com.tr\/en\/middle-east\/iraq-denies-iranian-strikes-targeted-mossad-headquarters-in-erbil\/3110492<\/a><\/p>\n [xix]<\/a> Heman Hussein Yassen, Iraqi businessman Dizayee killed with daughter on her 1st birthday in Iranian attack in Erbil, Anadolu Agency, 16 Ocak 2024, https:\/\/www.aa.com.tr\/en\/middle-east\/iraqi-businessman-dizayee-killed-with-daughter-on-her-1st-birthday-in-iranian-attack-in-erbil\/3110409<\/a><\/p>\n [xx]<\/a> Frances Mao, Caroline Davies ve Paul Adams, Pakistan launches retaliatory strikes into Iran, killing nine people, BBC, 18 Ocak 2024, https:\/\/www.bbc.com\/news\/world-asia-68014882<\/a><\/p>\n [xxi]<\/a> Riaz Khokhar ve Asma Khalid, Iran Has Conducted Strikes in Pakistan Before. This Time Was Different., The Diplomat, 26 Ocak 2024, https:\/\/thediplomat.com\/2024\/01\/iran-has-conducted-strikes-in-pakistan-before-this-time-was-different\/<\/a><\/p>\n [xxii]<\/a> Bkz. https:\/\/twitter.com\/omairanas\/status\/1747937277752254669<\/a><\/p>\n [xxiii]<\/a> Farhan Zahid, The Zainabiyoun Brigade: A Pakistani Shiite Militia Amid the Syrian Conflict, The Jamestown Foundation, 27 May\u0131s 2016, https:\/\/jamestown.org\/program\/the-zainabiyoun-brigade-a-pakistani-shiite-militia-amid-the-syrian-conflict\/<\/a><\/p>\n [xxiv]<\/a> Iraq takes \u2018Iranian aggression\u2019 case to the UN following Erbil attack, Rudaw, 16 Ocak 2024, https:\/\/www.rudaw.net\/english\/middleeast\/iraq\/16012024<\/a><\/p>\n [xxv]<\/a> Iraqi, Kurdish PMs cancel talks with Iran at Davos, The Cradle, 17 Ocak 2024, https:\/\/thecradle.co\/articles-id\/19290<\/a><\/p>\n [xxvi]<\/a> Eleanor Watson, Pentagon releases names of 3 soldiers killed in drone attack in Jordan, CBS News, 30 Ocak 2024, https:\/\/www.cbsnews.com\/news\/soldiers-killed-jordan-names\/<\/a><\/p>\n [xxvii]<\/a> Natasha Turak, Biden faces demands from Republicans in Congress to strike Iran after U.S. troop deaths, CNBC, 29 Ocak 2024, https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2024\/01\/29\/lawmakers-demanding-biden-strike-iran-after-us-troop-deaths-in-jordan-.html<\/a><\/p>\n [xxviii]<\/a> Felicia Schwartz ve James Politi, Can Biden respond to Iran-backed attack without escalating the war?, Financial Times, 30 Ocak 2024, https:\/\/www.ft.com\/content\/a5b3ded7-6c10-4586-a263-d884c78ef592<\/a><\/p>\n [xxix]<\/a> Stephen Collinson, Biden has to deal with a second war he didn\u2019t want. His task is to contain it, CNN, 31 Ocak 2024, https:\/\/edition.cnn.com\/2024\/01\/30\/politics\/biden-middle-east-war-analysis\/index.html<\/a><\/p>\n [xxx]<\/a> Natasha Bertrand, Haley Britzky, Oren Liebermann ve Kevin Liptak, US carries out retaliatory strikes on Iranian-linked militia targets in Iraq and Syria, CNN, 3 \u015eubat 2024, https:\/\/edition.cnn.com\/2024\/02\/02\/politics\/us-strikes-iraq-syria\/index.html<\/a><\/p>\n [xxxi]<\/a> Keir Simmons, Mo Abbas ve Khalid Razak, Wait for U.S. retaliatory strikes gives Iran-linked militias plenty of time to prepare, NBC News, 2 \u015eubat 2024, https:\/\/www.nbcnews.com\/news\/world\/israel-hamas-war-us-strikes-iran-militants-iraq-syria-rcna136934<\/a><\/p>\n [xxxii]<\/a> Iraq says 16 people, including civilians, killed in \u2018new US aggression\u2019, Al Jazeera, 3 \u015eubat 2024, https:\/\/www.aljazeera.com\/news\/2024\/2\/3\/us-warns-of-more-retaliatory-strikes-as-it-hits-iraq-syria-amid-gaza-war<\/a><\/p>\n [xxxiii]<\/a> Beatrice Farhat, 6 Kurdish SDF forces killed in Iran-linked attack on Syria base housing US troops, Al Monitor, 5 \u015eubat 2024, https:\/\/www.al-monitor.com\/originals\/2024\/02\/6-kurdish-sdf-forces-killed-iran-linked-attack-syria-base-housing-us-troops<\/a><\/p>\n [xxxiv]<\/a> Dan Lamothe ve Missy Ryan, U.S. signals it is open to withdrawing some troops from Iraq, Washington Post, 25 Ocak 2024, https:\/\/www.washingtonpost.com\/national-security\/2024\/01\/25\/iraq-syria-pentagon-military\/<\/a><\/p>\n [xxxv]<\/a> Charles Lister, America Is Planning to Withdraw From Syria\u2014and Create a Disaster, Foreign Policy, 24 Ocak 2024, https:\/\/foreignpolicy.com\/2024\/01\/24\/america-is-planning-to-withdraw-from-syria-and-create-a-disaster\/<\/a><\/p>\n [xxxvi]<\/a> Ryan King, Trump scores \u2018the biggest lead\u2019 yet against Biden in new NBC poll, New York Post, 4 \u015eubat 2024, https:\/\/nypost.com\/2024\/02\/04\/news\/trump-scores-the-biggest-lead-yet-against-biden-in-new-nbc-poll\/<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div> \u0130ran son aylarda hakk\u0131nda en \u00e7ok konu\u015fulan \u00fclkelerden biri. \u00dclkede 1979 y\u0131l\u0131nda ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen devrimle \u0130ran \u0130slam Cumhuriyeti’nin kurulmas\u0131ndan bu yana Tahran devrim ihrac\u0131 projesini ba\u015flatm\u0131\u015f ve resmi s\u00f6yleminin odak noktas\u0131na Filistin ve Kud\u00fcs’\u00fcn kurtulu\u015funu koymu\u015ftu<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":57,"featured_media":37592,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","ngg_post_thumbnail":0},"categories":[361],"tags":[],"asf_pub_issue":[10319],"asf_pub_region":[10321,18939],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/37600"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/57"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=37600"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/37600\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":37608,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/37600\/revisions\/37608"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/37592"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=37600"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=37600"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=37600"},{"taxonomy":"asf_pub_issue","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/asf_pub_issue?post=37600"},{"taxonomy":"asf_pub_region","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/asf_pub_region?post=37600"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}