{"id":37631,"date":"2024-03-06T16:04:09","date_gmt":"2024-03-06T13:04:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/2024\/03\/06\/muhtemel-refah-saldirisinin-yansimalari\/"},"modified":"2024-03-06T16:05:07","modified_gmt":"2024-03-06T13:05:07","slug":"muhtemel-refah-saldirisinin-yansimalari","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/2024\/03\/06\/muhtemel-refah-saldirisinin-yansimalari\/","title":{"rendered":"Muhtemel Refah Sald\u0131r\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n Yans\u0131malar\u0131"},"content":{"rendered":"

(Bu metin \u0130ngilizce orijinal versiyonundan terc\u00fcme edilmi\u015ftir.)<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

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\u0130srail Ba\u015fbakan\u0131 Binyamin Netanyahu ve Sava\u015f kabinesi mensuplar\u0131n\u0131n Gazze \u015eeridi’nin en g\u00fcneyindeki Refah b\u00f6lgesini i\u015fgal etme tehdidinde \u0131srar etti\u011fi ve ordu liderlerinin bu i\u015fgal i\u00e7in ayr\u0131nt\u0131l\u0131 bir sava\u015f plan\u0131 haz\u0131rlad\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131klar\u0131 bir d\u00f6nemden ge\u00e7iliyor. Ancak ordu mensuplar\u0131 \u0130srail h\u00fck\u00fcmetinden daha sonra uluslararas\u0131 yarg\u0131 kurumlar\u0131 \u00f6n\u00fcnde su\u00e7lanabilme ihtimallerine kar\u015f\u0131 M\u0131s\u0131r’la belirli siyasi hedefler belirlemesini ve di\u011fer gerekli d\u00fczenlemeleri yapmas\u0131n\u0131 talep ediyor.<\/p>\n

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\u0130srailli Eski General Isaac Brick, olas\u0131 bir i\u015fgalin tehlikeleri ve Filistinli siviller aras\u0131nda \u0130srail’e her y\u00f6nden pahal\u0131ya mal olacak b\u00fcy\u00fck bir katliam olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 konusunda sert bir uyar\u0131da bulundu. Brick, esirlerin geri getirilmesine y\u00f6nelik bir anla\u015fmaya var\u0131lmas\u0131 konusunda \u00e7a\u011fr\u0131da bulundu.<\/p>\n

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\u0130srail halk\u0131n\u0131n tepkisi, h\u00fck\u00fcmetin kat\u0131 tutumuyla uyumlu ve 7 Ekim olaylar\u0131na tepki olarak h\u00e2l\u00e2 intikam arzusunun h\u00e2kim oldu\u011fu \u00fclkede \u00e7o\u011funlu\u011fun e\u011filimleriyle uyum i\u00e7inde. Ancak elbette \u0130srail toplumu i\u00e7indeki ezici ak\u0131m\u0131 da g\u00f6zden ka\u00e7\u0131rm\u0131yor. \u0130srail’in ilan etti\u011fi iki hedefe (Hamas’\u0131n ortadan kald\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 ve rehinelerin serbest b\u0131rak\u0131lmas\u0131) ula\u015famamas\u0131 nedeniyle rehinelerin serbest b\u0131rak\u0131lmas\u0131 \u00e7a\u011fr\u0131s\u0131nda bulunuyor.<\/p>\n

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\u0130srail sava\u015f h\u00fck\u00fcmetinin, Gazze’nin kuzeyinden ve merkezinden zorla s\u00fcr\u00fclen 1,4 milyon<\/a> Filistinlinin s\u0131\u011f\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131 Refah’\u0131 i\u015fgal etme konusundaki \u0131srar\u0131, oraya vard\u0131klar\u0131nda ne ba\u015faracaklar\u0131na dair artan \u015f\u00fcpheleri gizliyor. \u0130srail ordusunun 41 kilometre uzunlu\u011funda ve 12 kilometre geni\u015fli\u011findeki toprak \u015feridinde yol almas\u0131 d\u00f6rt ay s\u00fcrd\u00fc. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k, ABD liderli\u011findeki koalisyonun 2003 y\u0131l\u0131nda Ba\u011fdat’\u0131n kontrol\u00fcn\u00fc ele ge\u00e7irmesi be\u015f haftadan biraz fazla s\u00fcrd\u00fc. ABD’nin Irak’ta yedi y\u0131lda kulland\u0131\u011f\u0131 m\u00fchimmat\u0131 ise \u0130srail d\u00f6rt ayda kulland\u0131.<\/p>\n

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Amerika\u2019n\u0131n deste\u011fi olmaks\u0131z\u0131n \u0130srail\u2019in bunu yapmas\u0131 m\u00fcmk\u00fcn olmazd\u0131. Beyaz Saray, \u0130srail’e Ramazan ay\u0131ndan \u00f6nce Refah’ta h\u0131zl\u0131 bir kara operasyonu yap\u0131lmas\u0131na itiraz\u0131 olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 bildirerek, b\u00f6lgesel gerilimlerin t\u0131rmanmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6nlemek i\u00e7in kutsal ay boyunca bu t\u00fcr eylemlere kar\u015f\u0131 oldu\u011funu bildirdi.<\/p>\n

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Bu tutumun, \u0130srail’in Gazze’deki tepkisinin “s\u0131n\u0131r\u0131 a\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131” y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki haberler de dahil olmak \u00fczere, Biden ile Netanyahu aras\u0131ndaki g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f ayr\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131n derinli\u011fini do\u011frulayan bir dizi s\u0131z\u0131nt\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan gelmi\u015f olmas\u0131 dikkat \u00e7ekicidir. Biden y\u00f6netimi art\u0131k Netanyahu’yu etkilenebilecek bir ortak olarak g\u00f6rm\u00fcyor. Dahas\u0131, Biden aralar\u0131ndaki kapal\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerde Netanyahu’yu “aptal<\/a>” olarak tan\u0131mlad\u0131. Pop\u00fclerli\u011fini kaybetmesine ve bu y\u0131l yap\u0131lacak se\u00e7imlerde anketlerde Trump\u2019\u0131n gerisine d\u00fc\u015fmesine ra\u011fmen \u0130srail yanl\u0131s\u0131 lobinin bask\u0131lar\u0131 nedeniyle Biden, \u0130srail Ba\u015fbakan\u0131 Netanyahu\u2019ya fazla bask\u0131 yapam\u0131yor. Biden ve Netanyahu aras\u0131nda ciddi g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f ayr\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131na ra\u011fmen durum bu. Yap\u0131lan son ara\u015ft\u0131rmalara g\u00f6re Biden, h\u00e2lihaz\u0131rda ABD\u2019de oylar\u0131n %40’\u0131ndan<\/a> az\u0131n\u0131 al\u0131yor. (Amerikan Sava\u015f Ara\u015ft\u0131rmalar\u0131 Enstit\u00fcs\u00fc’n\u00fcn tahminlerine ve \u0130srail raporlar\u0131na g\u00f6re).<\/p>\n

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Ne var ki Netanyahu’nun Paris Anla\u015fmas\u0131’yla u\u011fra\u015fmaktan ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f\u0131 yok. (Hamas ile \u0130srail aras\u0131ndaki m\u00fczakereler sava\u015f\u0131 durdurmay\u0131 ve rehinelerin evlerine d\u00f6nmesini ele al\u0131yor.) Sahadaki \u00e7\u0131kmaz\u0131ndan kurtulmas\u0131 i\u00e7in son \u00e7aresi bu.<\/p>\n

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Belki de Netanyahu, ate\u015fi kesmeye y\u00f6nelik ciddi \u00e7abalara giri\u015fmeden \u00f6nce, Gazze’ye y\u00f6nelik sald\u0131r\u0131da son kart\u0131n\u0131 oynamak istiyor. Sahada somut bir ba\u015far\u0131 elde ettikten sonra m\u00fczakerelere gitmek istiyor, bu da onu Refah’ta “iki rehineyi” serbest b\u0131rakarak ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n boyutunu b\u00fcy\u00fctmeye y\u00f6neltti. Yine de eninde sonunda Refah’ta \u015fiddetli bir direni\u015fle kar\u015f\u0131la\u015facak.<\/p>\n

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Birle\u015fmi\u015f Milletler, Refah’ta insani bir felaket ya\u015fanma potansiyeline ili\u015fkin ciddi endi\u015felerini dile getirerek, karadan yap\u0131lacak bir m\u00fcdahalenin yo\u011fun n\u00fcfuslu b\u00f6lgede katliama yol a\u00e7abilece\u011fi uyar\u0131s\u0131nda bulundu. BM yetkilileri, bir milyondan fazla insan\u0131n Refah’ta bar\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131, ciddi g\u0131da, t\u0131bbi bak\u0131m ve g\u00fcvenli bar\u0131nak s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131s\u0131yla kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya oldu\u011fu vahim insani durumun alt\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7iziyor. BM, Refah’a y\u00f6nelik y\u0131k\u0131c\u0131 sonu\u00e7lara yol a\u00e7acak topyek\u00fbn bir sald\u0131r\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6nlenmesi i\u00e7in rehinelerin serbest b\u0131rak\u0131lmas\u0131 ve ate\u015fkesin sa\u011flanmas\u0131 i\u00e7in m\u00fczakere yap\u0131lmas\u0131 \u00e7a\u011fr\u0131s\u0131nda bulunuyor.<\/p>\n

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Bu ba\u011flamda \u0130srail’in muhtemel harek\u00e2t\u0131na y\u00f6nelik ele\u015ftiri ve uyar\u0131lar artarken, Tel Aviv\u2019e y\u00f6nelik bask\u0131lar da yo\u011funla\u015f\u0131yor. G\u00fcney Afrika’n\u0131n \u0130srail’e kar\u015f\u0131 yeni bir talepte bulunmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan Tel Aviv ikinci kez Uluslararas\u0131 Adalet Divan\u0131 \u00f6n\u00fcnde zor durumda kald\u0131. Uluslararas\u0131 Adalet Divan\u0131, Gazze \u015eeridi’nin en g\u00fcneyindeki Refah’a sald\u0131r\u0131 ba\u015flatmaya haz\u0131r oldu\u011funu a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131ktan sonra, \u0130srail’in, soyk\u0131r\u0131m su\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 ele almas\u0131na ili\u015fkin raporlar\u0131 bekleyen Adalet Divan\u0131 taraf\u0131ndan daha \u00f6nce a\u00e7\u0131klanan tedbirlere uymas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini bildirdi. Direni\u015fin direnci ve \u00e7ok fazla g\u00fc\u00e7 ve te\u00e7hizat kaybetmedi\u011finin do\u011frulanmas\u0131yla, i\u015fgal ordusunun kuzeyde ve Gazze’de ba\u015faramad\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u015feyi ba\u015farmas\u0131 pek m\u00fcmk\u00fcn g\u00f6r\u00fcnm\u00fcyor. Bu durum, 1982’de \u00f6rg\u00fct\u00fcn Beyrut’taki liderli\u011finde oldu\u011fu gibi, \u0130srail\u2019i Gazze’deki siyasi ve askeri liderleri yurt d\u0131\u015f\u0131na s\u00fcrg\u00fcn etme<\/a> teklifine y\u00f6neltti. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla Paris Belgesi’ne dayal\u0131 m\u00fczakereler g\u00fcnler i\u00e7inde yerini alacak, Netanyahu’nun ate\u015f alt\u0131nda kalmas\u0131n\u0131 istedi\u011fi i\u00e7in haftalar sonra geli\u015fecek. Ancak direni\u015fin dayan\u0131kl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve bu avantajdan mahrum kalmas\u0131 nedeniyle Netanyahu’nun sahadaki pozisyonunun iyile\u015fece\u011fine dair ciddi \u015f\u00fcpheler var. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki g\u00fcnlerde bu durum netlik kazanacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n

Muhtemel Refah Sald\u0131r\u0131s\u0131 Esir Anla\u015fmas\u0131’n\u0131 Nas\u0131l Etkiler?<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

M\u0131s\u0131r s\u0131n\u0131r\u0131 boyunca yer alan Refah, Hamas’la ya\u015fanan ve \u00f6rg\u00fct\u00fcn 7 Ekim’deki sald\u0131r\u0131s\u0131yla alevlenen \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar s\u0131ras\u0131nda \u0130srail’in Gazze \u015eeridi’ndeki yo\u011fun bombard\u0131manlar\u0131ndan korunmak isteyen Filistinliler i\u00e7in bir s\u0131\u011f\u0131nak haline geldi. AFP haber ajans\u0131na konu\u015fan bir Hamas yetkilisi isminin a\u00e7\u0131klanmamas\u0131 kayd\u0131yla, “\u0130\u015fgal g\u00fc\u00e7lerinin Refah’a y\u00f6nelik herhangi bir askeri eylemi, esir takas\u0131 m\u00fczakerelerini baltalayacakt\u0131r” dedi. Netanyahu’nun, \u0130srail ordusuna \u015fu anda Gazze’nin toplam n\u00fcfusunun yar\u0131s\u0131ndan fazlas\u0131n\u0131 bar\u0131nd\u0131ran \u015fehre yap\u0131lacak bir sald\u0131r\u0131ya haz\u0131rlanma talimat\u0131 vermesi, olas\u0131 sald\u0131r\u0131n\u0131n yerinden edilmi\u015f sivil n\u00fcfusa yans\u0131malar\u0131 konusunda d\u00fcnyada alarma yol a\u00e7t\u0131. Biden y\u00f6netiminden \u00fcst d\u00fczey bir yetkili, son haftalarda geride kalan esirlerin serbest b\u0131rak\u0131lmas\u0131na y\u00f6nelik a\u015famal\u0131 bir anla\u015fmaya y\u00f6nelik g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerde “ciddi bir ilerleme” kaydedildi\u011fini bildirdi.<\/p>\n

Biden ile Netanyahu aras\u0131ndaki telefon g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmesinde rehinelerin serbest b\u0131rak\u0131lmas\u0131 anla\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n tart\u0131\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131 \u00f6nemli bir konuydu, ancak yetkiliye g\u00f6re h\u00e2l\u00e2 a\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131 gereken baz\u0131 “\u00f6nemli” farkl\u0131l\u0131klar var. \u00d6yle g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor ki \u0130srail’in Refah’taki kara sald\u0131r\u0131s\u0131, Yahya Sinvar’a takas anla\u015fmas\u0131 m\u00fczakerelerinde taviz vermesi y\u00f6n\u00fcnde bask\u0131 yapma amac\u0131n\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

Refah’a y\u00f6nelik sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n yo\u011funla\u015fmas\u0131 halinde Hamas m\u00fczakerelerden<\/a> ka\u00e7\u0131nabilir. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla m\u00fczakereler zorlu olacak, kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131kl\u0131 al\u0131\u015fveri\u015fi gerektirecek ve belirli bir anla\u015fmaya var\u0131lmas\u0131 haftalar s\u00fcrebilir. Pozisyonlar\u0131n farkl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 nedeniyle m\u00fczakereler tek bir a\u015famada anla\u015fmaya var\u0131lmas\u0131 ve m\u00fcteakip a\u015famalarda anla\u015fman\u0131n b\u00f6l\u00fcmlere ayr\u0131lmas\u0131yla sonu\u00e7lanabilir. Ancak anla\u015fman\u0131n denklemi, \u00f6zellikle \u0130srail’in herhangi bir ba\u015far\u0131ya ula\u015famamas\u0131n\u0131n derinle\u015fmesi ve i\u00e7 dinamiklerinin geli\u015fmesiyle birlikte sahadaki duruma ve kar\u015f\u0131la\u015fabilece\u011fi bask\u0131lar\u0131n niteli\u011fine g\u00f6re \u00e7izilecek.<\/p>\n<\/div>

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