![\"\"](\"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/Mehmet-Emin-150x150.jpeg\" "\\"\\"")
Mehmet Emin Cengiz<\/a> <\/i> 26 Mart 2024<\/span><\/h6><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div>PDF indir<\/span><\/a><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div>Uzman G\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fc<\/a> \/ Suriye<\/a>, Irak<\/a> \/ B\u00f6lgesel Politika<\/a><\/h6><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div>(Bu metin \u0130ngilizce orijinal versiyonundan terc\u00fcme edilmi\u015ftir.)<\/em><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\nGiri\u015f<\/strong><\/p>\nAylard\u0131r Ortado\u011fu siyasetinin odak noktas\u0131nda yer alan, dahas\u0131 bir insanl\u0131k trajedisine d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fen vahim Gazze krizinin ortas\u0131nda ve \u0130ran destekli milislerin Suriye ve Irak’taki ABD \u00fcslerine d\u00fczenledi\u011fi d\u00fczinelerce sald\u0131r\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan, bir s\u00fcredir ABD’nin bahse konu iki \u00fclkeden \u00e7ekilece\u011fi y\u00f6n\u00fcnde s\u00f6ylentiler yeniden dola\u015f\u0131mda. Ancak konu \u015fu ana kadar netlik kazanm\u0131\u015f de\u011fil. ABD’nin d\u00fczenledi\u011fi ve Ha\u015fdi \u015eabi’nin \u00fcst d\u00fczey komutanlar\u0131n\u0131n hayat\u0131na mal olan misilleme sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan Irak Ba\u015fbakan\u0131 Muhammed \u015eiya es-Sudani, ABD\u2019nin liderlik etti\u011fi I\u015e\u0130D\u2019e kar\u015f\u0131 olu\u015fturulan Uluslararas\u0131 Koalisyon\u2019dan \u00fcst d\u00fczey yetkililerle bir araya geldi. Toplant\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan Irak Ba\u015fbakanl\u0131k Medya Ofisi’nden \u015fu a\u00e7\u0131klama yap\u0131ld\u0131: ”Askeri uzmanlar, DEA\u015e’a (I\u015e\u0130D) Kar\u015f\u0131 Uluslararas\u0131 Koalisyon’un v\u00fccuda gelmesinin \u00fczerinden 10 y\u0131l ge\u00e7tikten ve Koalisyon\u2019un Irak askeri ve g\u00fcvenlik g\u00fc\u00e7leriyle (\u00f6rg\u00fcte kar\u015f\u0131) ortak ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan, Koalisyon\u2019un askeri misyonunun sona erdirilmesini denetleyecektir.”[i]<\/a><\/p>\nIrakl\u0131 yetkililer, \u0130ran Devrim Muhaf\u0131zlar\u0131 Ordusu’nun d\u0131\u015f kanad\u0131 olan Kud\u00fcs G\u00fcc\u00fc komutan\u0131 Kas\u0131m S\u00fcleymani’nin 2020 ba\u015f\u0131nda Ba\u011fdat’ta \u00f6ld\u00fcr\u00fclmesinden bu yana s\u00fcrekli olarak ABD’ye Irak’tan \u00e7ekilmesi \u00e7a\u011fr\u0131s\u0131nda bulunuyor. Son d\u00f6nemde I\u015e\u0130D’in Irak\u2019ta toprak kontrol\u00fc olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 dolay\u0131s\u0131yla \u00f6rg\u00fctten kaynaklanan tehdidin b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde azald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ileri s\u00fcrerek, ABD’nin \u00fclkede kalmas\u0131na gerek olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirttiler. ABD’nin 2003 y\u0131l\u0131ndaki i\u015fgali sonras\u0131 ilk geri \u00e7ekili\u015fi 2011 y\u0131l\u0131nda ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmi\u015fti. Ne var ki ABD\u2019nin mezk\u00fbr geri \u00e7ekili\u015fi Irak\u2019ta \u00e7ok sorunlu bir d\u00f6nemin ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n i\u015fareti oldu. ABD askerlerinin \u00e7ekilmesinden k\u0131sa bir s\u00fcre sonra Irak\u2019taki g\u00fcvenlik durumu h\u0131zl\u0131 bir \u015fekilde k\u00f6t\u00fcle\u015fti. D\u00f6nemin Irak Ba\u015fbakan\u0131 Nuri El Maliki’nin mezhep\u00e7i politikalar\u0131ndan kaynaklanan ve I\u015e\u0130D’in \u00fclkede y\u00fckseli\u015fine yol a\u00e7an olaylar silsilesi sonucunda 2014\u2019\u00fcn yaz aylar\u0131nda I\u015e\u0130D Irak\u2019ta aralar\u0131nda \u00fclkenin ikinci b\u00fcy\u00fck kenti Musul\u2019un da oldu\u011fu geni\u015f toprak par\u00e7alar\u0131n\u0131 ele ge\u00e7irdi. \u00d6rg\u00fct\u00fcn toprak kontrol\u00fcn\u00fc Hilafet ilan\u0131 takip etti. Nihayetinde ABD, 2014 y\u0131l\u0131nda Irak’a geri d\u00f6nerek I\u015e\u0130D kar\u015f\u0131t\u0131 Uluslararas\u0131 Koalisyon’u v\u00fccuda getirdi. Irak, I\u015e\u0130D’e kar\u015f\u0131 m\u00fccadelede zafer ilan etmi\u015f ve \u00f6rg\u00fct \u00fclkede kontrol etti\u011fi son toprak par\u00e7as\u0131n\u0131 2017[ii]<\/a> y\u0131l\u0131nda kaybetmi\u015f olsa da ABD Irak\u2019ta kalmaya devam etti. Irak’ta konu\u015flu yakla\u015f\u0131k 2500 ABD askerinin dan\u0131\u015fmanl\u0131k ve e\u011fitim g\u00f6revlerini \u00fcstlendi\u011fini belirtmekte fayda var. Yani Irak\u2019taki ABD askerleri muharip unsurlar[iii]<\/a> de\u011filler.<\/p>\nABD’nin Irak’tan Olas\u0131 \u00c7ekilmesinin Sonu\u00e7lar\u0131<\/strong><\/p>\n\u0130ran destekli gruplar\u0131n ABD \u00fcslerine y\u00f6nelik sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n bask\u0131s\u0131 sonucu ABD’nin Irak’tan olas\u0131 bir \u00e7ekilmesi, Tahran’\u0131n Irak siyasi ve askeri sahnesindeki muazzam n\u00fcfuzu g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcne al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, \u00fclkenin tamamen \u0130ran’a teslim edilmesi anlam\u0131na gelecektir. B\u00f6yle bir senaryo ne Erbil’de ne de kom\u015fu T\u00fcrkiye’de ho\u015f kar\u015f\u0131lanmayacakt\u0131r. Irak K\u00fcrdistan B\u00f6lgesi’nin (IKB) ba\u015fkenti Erbil, uzun s\u00fcredir Tahran destekli milislerin sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n bask\u0131s\u0131 alt\u0131ndayd\u0131. Bunun d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda ekonomik sorunlar ya\u015fayan Erbil, Ba\u011fdat’la olan b\u00fct\u00e7e anla\u015fmazl\u0131klar\u0131 nedeniyle kamu g\u00f6revlilerinin maa\u015flar\u0131n\u0131[iv]<\/a> dahi \u00f6demekte zorlan\u0131yor. Dahas\u0131 Irak Federal Y\u00fcksek Mahkemesi, ekonomiden siyasete kadar farkl\u0131 konularda \u00e7e\u015fitli kararlar vererek Erbil’e bask\u0131 yap\u0131yor. Federal Mahkeme’nin \u0130ran’\u0131n etkisi alt\u0131nda oldu\u011fu biliniyor ve mahkeme verdi\u011fi son kararlarla IKB\u2019nin \u00f6zerk stat\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fc baltal\u0131yor. Irak K\u00fcrdistan B\u00f6lgesi Ba\u015fbakan\u0131 Mesrur Barzani, IKB\u2019deki vahim durum nedeniyle Washington’a bir mektup[v]<\/a> yazd\u0131. B\u00f6lgenin \u00e7\u00f6kmesinden korkan Barzani ABD\u2019ye arabuluculu\u011fu \u00e7a\u011fr\u0131s\u0131nda bulundu. Ayr\u0131ca yak\u0131n bir d\u00f6nemde IKB Ba\u015fbakan\u0131 baz\u0131 toplant\u0131lara kat\u0131lmak \u00fczere yan\u0131ndaki heyetle birlikte Washington’u[vi]<\/a> ziyaret etti. Ba\u011fdat’\u0131n uygulad\u0131\u011f\u0131 ekonomik ve adli bask\u0131, Erbil’e diz \u00e7\u00f6kt\u00fcrmeyi ve b\u00f6lgeyi Tahran’\u0131n siyasi y\u00f6r\u00fcngesine sokmay\u0131 ama\u00e7l\u0131yor. Irak’taki K\u00fcrt yetkililer, ABD askerlerinin \u00fclkeden \u00e7ekilmesinin IKB\u2019nin \u00f6zerk stat\u00fcs\u00fcne daha fazla zarar verece\u011finden korkuyor. Ekonomiden g\u00fcvenli\u011fe kadar farkl\u0131 dosyalarda Ankara’n\u0131n Erbil’le olan g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ili\u015fkisi dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda b\u00f6yle bir durum T\u00fcrkiye’nin \u00e7\u0131karlar\u0131na da son derece ayk\u0131r\u0131d\u0131r.<\/p>\nAnkara ile Tahran aras\u0131nda b\u00f6lgedeki jeopolitik rekabet[vii]<\/a> de son y\u0131llarda derinle\u015fti. Bu nedenle Ankara, ne Irak’\u0131n, \u00f6zellikle de T\u00fcrkiye’nin tarihsel olarak n\u00fcfuz sahibi oldu\u011fu S\u00fcnni b\u00f6lgelerin, ne de Erbil’in tamamen \u0130ran kontrol\u00fcne girmesini istemez. Nitekim T\u00fcrkiye son d\u00f6nemde Ha\u015fdi \u015eabi liderleriyle Ba\u011fdat ve Ankara’da s\u0131kl\u0131kla g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. \u0130ran’\u0131n h\u00e2lihaz\u0131rda dahil olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 Kalk\u0131nma Yolu Projesi, T\u00fcrk ve Irakl\u0131 taraflar aras\u0131ndaki g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerin \u00f6nemli bir b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc olu\u015fturuyor. Tahran bu projenin ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesini sekteye u\u011fratabilecek g\u00fcce sahip oldu\u011fundan Ankara, \u0130ran destekli Ha\u015fdi \u015eabi liderleri de dahil olmak \u00fczere Irak h\u00fck\u00fcmetinin t\u00fcm taraflar\u0131yla bir anla\u015fmaya varmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131yor. T\u00fcrkiye, Ha\u015fdi \u015eabi\u2019nin \u0130ran bask\u0131s\u0131 alt\u0131nda Irak ekonomisini \u00e7e\u015fitlendirecek Kalk\u0131nma Yolu Projesi’ni sekteye u\u011fratmas\u0131n\u0131 istemedi\u011fi i\u00e7in Ha\u015fdi \u015eabi liderleriyle ileti\u015fim kanallar\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131k tutma konusunda olduk\u00e7a istekli. Bu \u015fekilde T\u00fcrkiye, Irak\u2019taki \u00e7\u0131karlar\u0131n\u0131 korumaya ve her ne kadar Ha\u015fdi \u015eabi\u2019nin \u0130ran y\u00f6r\u00fcngesinden tamamen \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131 m\u00fcmk\u00fcn olmasa da yap\u0131ya bir alternatif sunmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131yor.<\/p>\n\u00c7ok Kutuplu Bir D\u00fcnyan\u0131n Ortaya \u00c7\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131 ve ABD’nin G\u00fcvenilirli\u011finin Azalmas\u0131<\/strong><\/p>\n7 Ekim \u00f6ncesinde Amerikal\u0131 yetkililer Orta Do\u011fu b\u00f6lgesinin son yirmi y\u0131la nazaran \u00e7ok daha sakin oldu\u011funu ileri s\u00fcr\u00fcyorlard\u0131.[viii]<\/a> Hamas’\u0131n Aksa Tufan\u0131 Operasyonu ile beraber bu de\u011ferlendirmenin yanl\u0131\u015f oldu\u011fu ortaya \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131 ve ABD, \u00c7in ile olan b\u00fcy\u00fck g\u00fc\u00e7 rekabeti nedeniyle uzun s\u00fcredir Asya Pasifik b\u00f6lgesine \u00f6ncelik vermesine ra\u011fmen Ortado\u011fu’ya d\u00f6nmek zorunda kald\u0131. Hem Rusya hem de \u00c7in, farkl\u0131 stratejiler ve alanlarda da olsa Ortado\u011fu’daki n\u00fcfuzlar\u0131n\u0131 artt\u0131r\u0131yorlar. \u00dcstelik \u00e7ok kutuplu bir d\u00fcnya d\u00fczeni her ge\u00e7en g\u00fcn daha da belirginle\u015fiyor.[ix]<\/a> B\u00f6yle bir d\u00f6nemde ABD’nin Irak’tan \u00e7ekilme gibi bir maceraya at\u0131lmas\u0131 pek m\u00fcmk\u00fcn g\u00f6r\u00fcnm\u00fcyor. Zira b\u00f6ylesi bir ad\u0131m ABD\u2019nin Ortado\u011fu b\u00f6lgesindeki m\u00fcttefiklerinin g\u00f6z\u00fcnde g\u00fcvenilirli\u011fini daha da zedeleyecek bir hamle olur. ABD\u2019nin Afganistan’dan \u00e7ekildi\u011fi s\u00fcre\u00e7te ortaya \u00e7\u0131kan manzaralar Washington i\u00e7in uyar\u0131. Bug\u00fcn Orta Do\u011fu ve Kuzey Afrika B\u00f6lgesi’ndeki bir\u00e7ok \u00fclke, b\u00fcy\u00fck g\u00fc\u00e7ler rekabetinden yararlanarak Rusya ve \u00c7in ile giderek geli\u015fen ba\u011flar kuruyor. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla ABD\u2019nin b\u00f6lgedeki asker say\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 azaltmas\u0131 Ortado\u011fu\u2019dan tamamen \u00e7ekilece\u011fi anlam\u0131na gelmiyor.<\/p>\nYani Gazze krizi (b\u00f6lgesel konjonkt\u00fcr), Rusya ve \u00c7in\u2019in y\u00fckseli\u015fiyle ortaya \u00e7\u0131kan \u00e7ok kutuplu d\u00fcnya (uluslararas\u0131 konjonkt\u00fcr) ve ABD\u2019deki ba\u015fkanl\u0131k se\u00e7imleri (\u00fclke i\u00e7indeki \u00e7ekilme tart\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131) nedeniyle Ba\u015fkan Biden’\u0131n en az\u0131ndan yak\u0131n d\u00f6nemde Irak’tan bir \u00e7ekilme emri vermesi \u00e7ok muhtemel g\u00f6r\u00fcnm\u00fcyor. ABD \u00f6nc\u00fcl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcndeki Uluslararas\u0131 Koalisyon\u2019un, Irak’taki misyonunu sona erdirme konusunda Ba\u015fbakan Sudani ile g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeler yapmas\u0131, Tahran destekli milislerin Irak h\u00fck\u00fcmeti \u00fczerindeki bask\u0131lar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda[x]<\/a> Ba\u015fbakan\u2019a belli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde manevra alan\u0131 sa\u011flamay\u0131 ama\u00e7l\u0131yor olabilir.<\/p>\nSuriye\u2019deki Manzara ve ABD’nin Olas\u0131 \u00c7ekilmesi<\/strong><\/p>\nSuriye’deki durum Irak\u2019takinden daha az karma\u015f\u0131k de\u011fil. ABD askerlerinin Suriye’den \u00e7ekilmesi, ana omurgas\u0131n\u0131 PKK’n\u0131n Suriye kolu YPG’nin olu\u015fturdu\u011fu Suriye Demokratik G\u00fc\u00e7leri’nin terk edilmesi anlam\u0131na gelecektir. Washington, Suriye’de I\u015e\u0130D’e kar\u015f\u0131 m\u00fccadele \u00e7er\u00e7evesinde 2015’ten bu yana SDG\u2019yi tutarl\u0131 ve kararl\u0131 bir \u015fekilde destekledi. \u015eu anda Kuzeydo\u011fu Suriye’de 900 civar\u0131nda ABD askeri bulunuyor. Bu birliklerin \u00e7ekilmesi ilk bak\u0131\u015fta kom\u015fu T\u00fcrkiye i\u00e7in olumlu bir geli\u015fme gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcnse de Afganistan senaryosuna benzer \u015fekilde koordinesiz[xi]<\/a> bir geri \u00e7ekilme, Suriye’de \u0130ran ve Rusya’ya daha fazla alan a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131 anlam\u0131na gelecektir. H\u00e2lihaz\u0131rda ABD askerleri ile \u0130ran destekli milisleri ay\u0131ran tek \u015fey F\u0131rat Nehri. Taraflar nehrin farkl\u0131 k\u0131y\u0131lar\u0131nda bulunuyorlar. ABD kuvvetleri Suriye\u2019den geri \u00e7ekilir \u00e7ekilmez \u0130ran destekli milisler, bo\u015flu\u011fu doldurmak i\u00e7in nehrin bat\u0131 yakas\u0131ndan do\u011fu k\u0131sm\u0131na do\u011fru hareket edecektir. Suriye\u2019nin do\u011fusu uzun s\u00fcredir SDG’nin yumu\u015fak karn\u0131 olmaya devam ediyor. Deyrizor’da bir k\u0131sm\u0131 Suriye rejimiyle iltisakl\u0131 olan Arap a\u015firetleri ile SDG aras\u0131nda Eyl\u00fcl 2023’ten itibaren haftalarca s\u00fcren \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar ya\u015fand\u0131. \u00c7at\u0131\u015fmalar her iki taraftan onlarca ki\u015finin \u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcne ve yaralanmas\u0131na sebebiyet verdi. \u0130ran bu a\u015firetlerden de yararlanarak ABD\u2019nin muhtemel bir geri \u00e7ekilmesinden yararlanmaya haz\u0131r. Baz\u0131 raporlar\u0131 g\u00f6re, Devrim Muhaf\u0131zlar\u0131 Komutan\u0131 “Hac\u0131 Mehdi, Tahran’\u0131n Deyrizor’daki operasyonlar\u0131ndan sorumlu ve aktif bir \u015fekilde a\u015firetlerden asker dev\u015firiyor.”[xii]<\/a><\/p>\nBunlarla birlikte, ABD’nin PYD\/SDG ile Esed rejimi aras\u0131nda bir anla\u015fmaya[xiii]<\/a> var\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan Suriye’den \u00e7ekilece\u011fi iddia edilse de K\u00fcrt taraf\u0131n\u0131n \u015fu ana kadar yapt\u0131klar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamalar bu durumun aksini g\u00f6steriyor. SDG komutan\u0131 Mazlum Abdi, ABD’nin kendisine olas\u0131 bir \u00e7ekilme durumunda kendilerini korumalar\u0131 i\u00e7in \u015eam’la bir kanal a\u00e7mas\u0131n\u0131 tavsiye ettikleri iddias\u0131n\u0131 reddetti. \u00dcstelik Amerikal\u0131 yetkililerden, ABD’nin Suriye’den \u00e7ekilmesinin masada olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131na dair ‘net g\u00fcvenceler’[xiv]<\/a> ald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ileri s\u00fcrd\u00fc. Mart ay\u0131 ba\u015flar\u0131nda CENTCOM Komutan\u0131 General Michael Erik Kurilla, Ortado\u011fu\u2019daki g\u00fcvenlik durumunu do\u011frudan g\u00f6zlemlemek[xv]<\/a> ve sahadaki ortaklar\u0131yla g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmek \u00fczere b\u00f6lgesel gezisinin bir par\u00e7as\u0131 olarak Kuzeydo\u011fu Suriye’yi ziyaret etti. Kurilla ayr\u0131ca I\u015e\u0130D mensubu mahkumlar\u0131n\u0131n ailelerinin tutuldu\u011fu Roj ve Hol kamplar\u0131n\u0131 da ziyaret etti.<\/p>\nABD’nin bug\u00fcne kadar SDG\/PYD ile Esed rejimi aras\u0131nda bir uzla\u015f\u0131ya var\u0131lmas\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 da belirtmekte fayda var. \u00dcstelik ABD, Esed rejiminin yerel, b\u00f6lgesel ve uluslararas\u0131 d\u00fczeyde me\u015frula\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131na resmi olarak kar\u015f\u0131 \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. \u00d6rne\u011fin yak\u0131n zamanda ABD Temsilciler Meclisi, ABD’nin Esed rejimiyle normalle\u015fmesini engelleyen bir yasa tasar\u0131s\u0131n\u0131[xvi]<\/a> kabul etti. Tasar\u0131 ayn\u0131 zamanda Suriye\u2019ye uygulanan Sezar yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131[xvii]<\/a> da uzat\u0131yor.<\/p>\nABD’de b\u00f6ylesi bir durum varken, Washington’un Esed’e daha fazla me\u015fruiyet kazand\u0131racak ve Suriye’deki m\u00fcttefiklerini g\u00fc\u00e7lendirecek bir hamle olan \u00e7ekilme karar\u0131n\u0131 al\u0131p almayaca\u011f\u0131 net de\u011fil. ABD’nin yak\u0131n zamanda Suriye rejimi lideri Be\u015f\u015far Esed’e y\u00f6nelik tavr\u0131n\u0131 de\u011fi\u015ftirmeye karar verip vermedi\u011fi, e\u011fer de\u011fi\u015ftirdi ise de bu karara tam olarak neyin yol a\u00e7t\u0131\u011f\u0131 hen\u00fcz belli de\u011fil. Ayr\u0131ca \u015fu ana kadarki Suriye politikas\u0131n\u0131n gidi\u015fat\u0131n\u0131 de\u011fi\u015ftirmek, Washington’un Suriye politikas\u0131n\u0131n iflas\u0131n\u0131n ikrar\u0131 olman\u0131n yan\u0131nda, Rusya ile \u0130ran’\u0131n Suriye\u2019deki tutumlar\u0131n\u0131n do\u011fru oldu\u011funun \u00fcst\u00fc kapal\u0131 bir \u015fekilde kabul edilmesi anlam\u0131na da gelecektir. Washington en az\u0131ndan \u015fimdilik b\u00f6yle bir duruma s\u00fcr\u00fcklenmekten ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131yor gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Ayn\u0131 zamanda ABD’nin Suriye’deki ana m\u00fcttefiki olan SDG’nin komutan\u0131 Mazlum Abdi, son zamanlarda kontrolleri alt\u0131ndaki b\u00f6lgelerin ABD ile \u0130ran aras\u0131nda bir sava\u015f alan\u0131na[xviii]<\/a> d\u00f6nmesini istemediklerini s\u00f6yledi. Ne var ki, SDG kontrol\u00fcndeki[xix]<\/a> b\u00f6lgeler \u015fimdiden \u0130ran destekli milislerin hedefi haline gelmi\u015f durumda. SDG, \u0130ran destekli milislerin bir sald\u0131r\u0131s\u0131nda alt\u0131 \u00fcyesini bile kaybetti. Tahran, Suriye’de \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131n ba\u015flamas\u0131ndan bu yana n\u00fcfuzunu giderek art\u0131rd\u0131. ABD’nin Suriye’den olas\u0131 bir \u00e7ekilmesi-Suriye krizinin a\u011f\u0131r toplar\u0131ndan olan T\u00fcrkiye ile koordineli bir \u015fekilde yap\u0131lmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 takdirde-ba\u015fta \u0130ran, ard\u0131ndan da Rusya’n\u0131n Suriye\u2019deki n\u00fcfuzunu art\u0131rmas\u0131na sebebiyet verecektir. ABD, Suriye’den (koordinesiz \u00e7ekildi\u011fi takdirde) \u00fclkedeki g\u00fc\u00e7 dengesinin Esed’in m\u00fcttefikleri lehine ve T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin aleyhine de\u011fi\u015fmesi \u00e7ok muhtemel. Hele ki ABD’nin iddia edildi\u011fi gibi SDG\/PYD’yi Esed rejimiyle bir uzla\u015f\u0131ya zorlamas\u0131 ve \u015eam’\u0131n da SDG ve PYD-kontrol\u00fcndeki \u00d6zerk Y\u00f6netim\u2019e anayasal stat\u00fc vermesi durumunda-ki bu mevcut konjonkt\u00fcrde pek olas\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcnm\u00fcyor-Ankara b\u00f6ylesi bir vaziyetten derece rahats\u0131z olacakt\u0131r. PYD\/SDG taraf\u0131n\u0131n ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz y\u0131llarda Esed rejimiyle bir\u00e7ok g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmesi[xx]<\/a> oldu.<\/p>\nAncak iki taraf aras\u0131ndaki m\u00fczakereler sonu\u00e7suz kald\u0131 ve o zamandan bu yana ciddi bir geli\u015fme ya\u015fanmad\u0131. \u00dcstelik Esed rejimi Arap d\u00fcnyas\u0131nda daha fazla me\u015fruiyet kazand\u0131 ve \u015fu an SDG\/PYD ile herhangi bir m\u00fczakere kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda elinin g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Bu durum da, en az\u0131ndan yak\u0131n gelecekte SDG ile rejim aras\u0131nda bir anla\u015fma yap\u0131lmas\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 azalt\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Olas\u0131 bir koordinesiz ve ani geri \u00e7ekilme senaryosunda \u015f\u00fcphesiz Esed rejimi ve m\u00fcttefikleri, Suriye muhalefetinin kontrol\u00fcndeki b\u00f6lgelere sald\u0131rma konusunda daha da cesaretlenecektir. 2020 y\u0131l\u0131 ba\u015f\u0131ndan bu yana Suriye’deki kontrol b\u00f6lgelerinin s\u0131n\u0131rlar\u0131 de\u011fi\u015fmedi. Sahadaki mevcut g\u00fc\u00e7 dengesi, \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n taraf\u0131 olan akt\u00f6rlerin rakiplerine sald\u0131rmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7ok maliyetli hale getiriyor. ABD’nin Suriye\u2019den geri \u00e7ekilmesi durumunda bu g\u00fc\u00e7 dengesi bozulacak ve Esed rejimi ile m\u00fcttefikleri, Suriye muhalefetinin kontrol\u00fcndeki b\u00f6lgelere sald\u0131rma konusunda daha motive hale gelecekler. Bu senaryoda Ankara destekli Suriye Milli Ordusu kontrol\u00fcndeki b\u00f6lgeler ve 4 milyondan fazla insana ev sahipli\u011fi yapan \u0130dlib b\u00fcy\u00fck bir tehlike alt\u0131na girecek. Gazze trajedisinin devam etti\u011fi bir d\u00f6nemde Suriyeli muhaliflerin kontrol\u00fcndeki b\u00f6lgelere olas\u0131 bir rejim-m\u00fcttefik sald\u0131r\u0131s\u0131 yeni bir insani felakete yol a\u00e7abilir. B\u00f6yle bir durumda T\u00fcrkiye’ye yeni bir m\u00fclteci ak\u0131n\u0131 uzak bir senaryo olmayacakt\u0131r. Ortaya \u00e7\u0131kabilecek b\u00f6yle bir senaryo sadece Ankara’y\u0131 de\u011fil, Avrupa \u00fclkelerini de etkileyecektir.<\/p>\n
Sonu\u00e7<\/strong><\/p>\nK\u0131sacas\u0131, koordinasyonsuz ve ani bir geri \u00e7ekilme, \u015f\u00fcphesiz Ankara’y\u0131 zor bir duruma sokacakt\u0131r. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla Ankara-Washington ili\u015fkilerinin d\u00fczelmeye ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir d\u00f6nemde ABD’nin b\u00f6ylesine mant\u0131ks\u0131z bir ad\u0131m at\u0131p atmayaca\u011f\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fck bir soru i\u015fareti.<\/p>\n
Ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz g\u00fcnlerde T\u00fcrkiye D\u0131\u015fi\u015fleri Bakan\u0131 Hakan Fidan, ABD-T\u00fcrkiye Stratejik Mekanizma toplant\u0131lar\u0131na kat\u0131lmak \u00fczere ABD’li yetkililerin daveti \u00fczerine heyetiyle birlikte Washington’u ziyaret etmi\u015fti. Milli \u0130stihbarat Ba\u015fkan\u0131 \u0130brahim Kal\u0131n da mevkida\u015f\u0131 William Burns ile g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmek \u00fczere ABD\u2019deydi.[xxi]<\/a> Blinken-Fidan g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmesinin ard\u0131ndan olumlu bir ortak[xxii]<\/a> a\u00e7\u0131klama yay\u0131mland\u0131.<\/p>\nTaraflar ter\u00f6rle m\u00fccadelede ortak kararl\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 vurgulad\u0131. Ayr\u0131ca T\u00fcrkiye’nin \u0130sve\u00e7’in NATO’ya kat\u0131l\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 onaylamas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan T\u00fcrkiye\u2019ye F-16\u2019a sat\u0131\u015f\u0131nda ya\u015fanan sorunlar\u0131n ortadan kalkmas\u0131 gibi kritik olumlu geli\u015fmeler de ya\u015fand\u0131. Ayr\u0131ca ABD, T\u00fcrkiye’nin F-35 program\u0131na d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fc konusunda da kap\u0131y\u0131 tamamen kapatm\u0131\u015f de\u011fil. Bunlar\u0131n yan\u0131nda iki taraf, Ankara ile Washington aras\u0131nda 30 milyar dolar civar\u0131nda seyreden ticaret hacminin 100 milyar dolara \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 istiyor.[xxiii]<\/a><\/p>\nBu \u00f6nemli konularda ili\u015fkilerin h\u0131zla geli\u015fti\u011fi bir d\u00f6nemde Washington’un, en az\u0131ndan yak\u0131n bir zaman diliminde hem Washington’a hem de Ankara’ya zarar verecek koordinasyonsuz ve zamans\u0131z bir geri \u00e7ekilmeye giri\u015fmesi pek m\u00fcmk\u00fcn g\u00f6r\u00fcnm\u00fcyor. Ancak ABD’de 2024 se\u00e7imlerini \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclemeyen Donald Trump kazan\u0131rsa, koordinasyondan ve zamandan ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z olarak \u00e7ekilme senaryosu daha ger\u00e7ek\u00e7i bir hale gelebilir. Trump, ABD askerlerinin, Trump’\u0131n yaln\u0131zca ‘\u00f6l\u00fcm ve kum’ g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc Irak ve\/veya Suriye’den \u00e7ekilmesi emrini verebilir.[xxiv]<\/a> Irak’\u0131n Suriye’deki ABD birliklerinin ana lojistik merkezi oldu\u011funu belirtmekte de fayda var. Irak’tan \u00e7ekilme Suriye’deki durumu da \u015f\u00fcphesiz ki etkileyecektir. Suriye’den muhtemel bir geri \u00e7ekilme karar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda CENTCOM \u015f\u00fcphesiz direnmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015facakt\u0131r. Ancak ne \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde ve ne zamana kadar direnebilece\u011fi ba\u015fka bir konu. Trump, askerlerini Suriye’den \u00e7ekme niyetini a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, d\u00f6nemin ABD Savunma Bakan\u0131 James Mattis, 2018 sonlar\u0131nda bu karara kat\u0131lmamas\u0131 nedeniyle g\u00f6revinden istifa etmi\u015fti.[xxv]<\/a><\/p>\nABD askerlerinin Suriye’den k\u0131smi \u00e7ekilmesi, T\u00fcrkiye’nin 2019’da Bar\u0131\u015f P\u0131nar\u0131 Harekat\u0131’n\u0131n yolunu a\u00e7m\u0131\u015ft\u0131.[xxvi]<\/a> ABD’nin Suriye’den koordineli bir \u015fekilde \u00e7ekilmesi, t\u0131pk\u0131 2019’da oldu\u011fu gibi T\u00fcrkiye’nin Suriye’de yeni bir operasyon d\u00fczenlemesine de yol a\u00e7abilir. T\u00fcrkiye, aylard\u0131r Suriye’deki PKK\/SDG ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 isimlere insans\u0131z hava arac\u0131 sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131 d\u00fczenliyor. Ayr\u0131ca SDG kontrol\u00fcndeki altyap\u0131 ve PYD kontrol\u00fcndeki \u00d6zerk Y\u00f6netim\u2019in gelir kaynaklar\u0131n\u0131[xxvii]<\/a> kurutmak amac\u0131yla petrol sahalar\u0131n\u0131 hedef al\u0131yor. ABD’nin Irak ve Suriye’den \u00e7ekilmesi durumunda yukar\u0131da belirtilen senaryolardan hangisinin ger\u00e7ekle\u015fece\u011fini ancak zaman g\u00f6sterecek. \u015eimdilik bir geri \u00e7ekilme karar\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcnde pek \u00e7ok belirsizlik yat\u0131yor. ABD’de bu sene ger\u00e7ekle\u015fecek ba\u015fkanl\u0131k se\u00e7imi sonu\u00e7lar\u0131 muhtemel bir geri \u00e7ekilme karar\u0131nda belirleyici olacak. Ancak bahse konu se\u00e7imlere neredeyse bir y\u0131l var. Bu d\u00f6nem, istikrars\u0131z Ortado\u011fu’da son derece uzun ve se\u00e7imlere kadar geri \u00e7ekilme karar\u0131n\u0131 etkilemesi muhtemel pek \u00e7ok yeni b\u00f6lgesel ve uluslararas\u0131 dinamik ortaya \u00e7\u0131kabilir.<\/p>\nReferanslar<\/b><\/p>\n
[i]<\/a> Bkz. https:\/\/twitter.com\/IraqiPMO\/status\/1751207722911928460<\/a><\/p>\n[ii]<\/a> Margaret Coker and Falih Hassan, Iraq Prime Minister Declares Victory Over ISIS, New York Times, 9 Aral\u0131k 2017, https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2017\/12\/09\/world\/middleeast\/iraq-isis-haider-al-abadi.html<\/a><\/p>\n[iii]<\/a> Americans in Iraq will continue to be attacked, despite \u2018non-combat\u2019 role, Concerned Veterans for America, 25 Ocak 2022, https:\/\/cv4a.org\/the-overwatch\/americans-in-iraq-continue-to-be-attacked-despite-non-combat-role\/<\/a><\/p>\n[iv]<\/a> Delay in paying salaries takes toll on Erbil market, Rudaw, 5 Ekim 2023, https:\/\/www.rudaw.net\/english\/kurdistan\/051020231<\/a><\/p>\n[v]<\/a> Amberin Zaman, In letter to Biden, Barzani warns of Iraqi Kurdistan’s collapse, urges mediation, Al Monitor, 12 Eyl\u00fcl 2023, https:\/\/www.al-monitor.com\/originals\/2023\/09\/letter-biden-barzani-warns-iraqi-kurdistans-collapse-urges-mediation<\/a><\/p>\n[vi]<\/a> Prime Minister Masrour Barzani Embarks on Official Visit to Washington, Kurdistan Regional Government, 25 \u015eubat 2024, https:\/\/gov.krd\/english\/government\/the-prime-minister\/activities\/posts\/2024\/february\/prime-minister-masrour-barzani-embarks-on-official-visit-to-washington\/<\/a><\/p>\n[vii]<\/a> Mehmet Emin Cengiz, The Future of the Iranian-Turkish Relationship: A Contained Geopolitical Rivalry or A Possible Escalation Between Ankara and Tehran?, Al Sharq Strategic Research, 20 Eyl\u00fcl 2022, https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/2022\/09\/20\/iranian-turkish-relationship\/<\/a><\/p>\n[viii]<\/a> Gal Beckerman, \u2018The Middle East Region Is Quieter Today Than It Has Been in Two Decades\u2019, The Atlantic, 7 Ekim 2023, https:\/\/www.theatlantic.com\/international\/archive\/2023\/10\/israel-war-middle-east-jake-sullivan\/675580\/<\/a><\/p>\n[ix]<\/a> The Gaza Crisis and Emerging Multipolar World, Al Sharq Strategic Research, 3 Kas\u0131m 2023, https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/2023\/11\/03\/the-gaza-crisis-and-emerging-multipolar-world\/<\/a><\/p>\n[x]<\/a> US Troops in Middle East: What Are They Doing and Where?, Voice of America (VOA), 3 \u015eubat 2024, https:\/\/www.voanews.com\/a\/us-troops-in-middle-east-what-are-they-doing-and-where-\/7469452.html<\/a><\/p>\n[xi]<\/a> \u00d6mer \u00d6zkizilcik, Here\u2019s what an uncoordinated US withdrawal from Syria would look like. It\u2019s bad for many partners, but especially Turkey, Atlantic Council, 20 \u015eubat 2024, https:\/\/www.atlanticcouncil.org\/blogs\/menasource\/syria-withdrawal-turkey-us-hts\/<\/a><\/p>\n[xii]<\/a> Sean Mathews, Kurdish groups gripped by fear as they brace for a US pullout from northeast Syria, Middle East Eye, 7 Mart 2024, https:\/\/www.middleeasteye.net\/news\/kurds-fear-as-they-brace-us-pullout-northern-syria<\/a><\/p>\n[xiii]<\/a>Amberin Zaman, Pentagon floats plan for its Syrian Kurd allies to partner with Assad against ISIS, Al Monitor, 22 Ocak 2024, https:\/\/www.al-monitor.com\/originals\/2024\/01\/pentagon-floats-plan-its-syrian-kurd-allies-partner-assad-against-isis<\/a><\/p>\n[xiv]<\/a> Elie Youssef, SDF Commander: No Withdrawal of US Forces from Syria, Asharq Al-Awsat, 10 \u015eubat 2024, https:\/\/english.aawsat.com\/arab-world\/4845366-sdf-commander-no-withdrawal-us-forces-syria<\/a><\/p>\n[xv]<\/a>CENTCOM commander visits US bases in Syria, Enab Baladi, 4 Mart 2024, https:\/\/english.enabbaladi.net\/archives\/2024\/03\/centcom-commander-visits-us-bases-in-syria\/<\/a><\/p>\n[xvi]<\/a> US lawmakers pass anti-Assad Syria Anti-Normalisation Act, The New Arab, 15 \u015eubat 2024, https:\/\/www.newarab.com\/news\/us-lawmakers-pass-anti-assad-syria-anti-normalisation-act<\/a><\/p>\n[xvii]<\/a> A.g.e.<\/p>\n[xviii]<\/a> Syria Today \u2013 SDF Leader Says Syria Shouldn\u2019t Become US-Iran Battleground; UNGA Asks Israel to Withdraw From Golan, The Syrian Observer, 30 Kas\u0131m 2023, https:\/\/syrianobserver.com\/news\/86459\/syria-today-sdf-leader-says-syria-shouldnt-become-us-iran-battleground-unga-asks-israel-to-withdraw-from-golan.html<\/a><\/p>\n[xix]<\/a> Beatrice Farhat, 6 Kurdish SDF forces killed in Iran-linked attack on Syria base housing US troops, Al Monitor, 5 \u015eubat 2024, https:\/\/www.al-monitor.com\/originals\/2024\/02\/6-kurdish-sdf-forces-killed-iran-linked-attack-syria-base-housing-us-troops<\/a><\/p>\n[xx]<\/a> Mehmet Emin Cengiz and Bedir Mulla Rashid, Thorny Challenges for the PYD-led Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria, Al Sharq Strategic Research, 20 Haziran 2020, https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/2020\/06\/20\/north-and-east-syria\/<\/a><\/p>\n <\/p>\n
[xxi]<\/a> Aylin Dal, Turkish intelligence chief to hold talks in US, Anadolu Agency, 5 Mart 2024, https:\/\/www.aa.com.tr\/en\/americas\/turkish-intelligence-chief-to-hold-talks-in-us\/3155362<\/a><\/p>\n[xxii]<\/a> Joint Statement on the U.S.-T\u00fcrkiye Strategic Mechanism, US Embassy&Consulates in T\u00fcrkiye, 9 Mart 2024, https:\/\/tr.usembassy.gov\/joint-statement-on-the-u-s-turkiye-strategic-mechanism-2\/<\/a><\/p>\n[xxiii]<\/a> Fatma Eda Top\u00e7u, T\u00fcrkiye, US have entered \u2018new era\u2019 in trade relations: Business council head, Anadolu Agency, 8 Eyl\u00fcl 2023, https:\/\/www.aa.com.tr\/en\/turkiye\/turkiye-us-have-entered-new-era-in-trade-relations-business-council-head\/2986349<\/a><\/p>\n[xxiv]<\/a> Richard Hall, Trump says Syria is \u2018sand and death\u2019 in defence of troop withdrawal, The Independent, 3 Ocak 2019, https:\/\/www.independent.co.uk\/news\/world\/middle-east\/trump-syria-troop-withdrawal-us-sand-death-cabinet-meeting-military-a8709131.html<\/a><\/p>\n[xxv]<\/a> Veronica Rocha and Sophie Tatum, Defense Secretary James Mattis resigns, CNN, 20 Aral\u0131k 2018, https:\/\/edition.cnn.com\/politics\/live-news\/james-mattis-resigns\/index.html<\/a><\/p>\n[xxvi]<\/a> Matthew Cebul, Operation \u2018\u2018Peace Spring\u2019\u2019 and U.S. Strategy in Syria, Foreign Policy Research Institute, 11 Ekim 2019, https:\/\/www.fpri.org\/article\/2019\/10\/operation-peace-spring-and-u-s-strategy-in-syria\/<\/a><\/p>\n[xxvii]<\/a> Mehmet Emin Cengiz, Syria in 2024: Return to the Regional Focus, Al Sharq Strategic Research, 17 Ocak 2024, https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/2024\/01\/17\/syria-in-2024-return-to-the-regional-focus\/<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Aylard\u0131r Ortado\u011fu siyasetinin odak noktas\u0131nda yer alan, dahas\u0131 bir insanl\u0131k trajedisine d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fen vahim Gazze krizinin ortas\u0131nda ve \u0130ran destekli milislerin Suriye ve Irak’taki ABD \u00fcslerine d\u00fczenledi\u011fi d\u00fczinelerce sald\u0131r\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan, bir s\u00fcredir ABD’nin bahse konu iki \u00fclkeden \u00e7ekilece\u011fi y\u00f6n\u00fcnde s\u00f6ylentiler yeniden dola\u015f\u0131mda<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":57,"featured_media":37660,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","ngg_post_thumbnail":0},"categories":[361],"tags":[],"asf_pub_issue":[10319],"asf_pub_region":[10321,17580,17588],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/37678"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/57"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=37678"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/37678\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":37688,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/37678\/revisions\/37688"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/37660"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=37678"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=37678"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=37678"},{"taxonomy":"asf_pub_issue","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/asf_pub_issue?post=37678"},{"taxonomy":"asf_pub_region","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/asf_pub_region?post=37678"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}
Uzman G\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fc<\/a> \/ Suriye<\/a>, Irak<\/a> \/ B\u00f6lgesel Politika<\/a><\/h6><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div>(Bu metin \u0130ngilizce orijinal versiyonundan terc\u00fcme edilmi\u015ftir.)<\/em><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\nGiri\u015f<\/strong><\/p>\nAylard\u0131r Ortado\u011fu siyasetinin odak noktas\u0131nda yer alan, dahas\u0131 bir insanl\u0131k trajedisine d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fen vahim Gazze krizinin ortas\u0131nda ve \u0130ran destekli milislerin Suriye ve Irak’taki ABD \u00fcslerine d\u00fczenledi\u011fi d\u00fczinelerce sald\u0131r\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan, bir s\u00fcredir ABD’nin bahse konu iki \u00fclkeden \u00e7ekilece\u011fi y\u00f6n\u00fcnde s\u00f6ylentiler yeniden dola\u015f\u0131mda. Ancak konu \u015fu ana kadar netlik kazanm\u0131\u015f de\u011fil. ABD’nin d\u00fczenledi\u011fi ve Ha\u015fdi \u015eabi’nin \u00fcst d\u00fczey komutanlar\u0131n\u0131n hayat\u0131na mal olan misilleme sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan Irak Ba\u015fbakan\u0131 Muhammed \u015eiya es-Sudani, ABD\u2019nin liderlik etti\u011fi I\u015e\u0130D\u2019e kar\u015f\u0131 olu\u015fturulan Uluslararas\u0131 Koalisyon\u2019dan \u00fcst d\u00fczey yetkililerle bir araya geldi. Toplant\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan Irak Ba\u015fbakanl\u0131k Medya Ofisi’nden \u015fu a\u00e7\u0131klama yap\u0131ld\u0131: ”Askeri uzmanlar, DEA\u015e’a (I\u015e\u0130D) Kar\u015f\u0131 Uluslararas\u0131 Koalisyon’un v\u00fccuda gelmesinin \u00fczerinden 10 y\u0131l ge\u00e7tikten ve Koalisyon\u2019un Irak askeri ve g\u00fcvenlik g\u00fc\u00e7leriyle (\u00f6rg\u00fcte kar\u015f\u0131) ortak ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan, Koalisyon\u2019un askeri misyonunun sona erdirilmesini denetleyecektir.”[i]<\/a><\/p>\nIrakl\u0131 yetkililer, \u0130ran Devrim Muhaf\u0131zlar\u0131 Ordusu’nun d\u0131\u015f kanad\u0131 olan Kud\u00fcs G\u00fcc\u00fc komutan\u0131 Kas\u0131m S\u00fcleymani’nin 2020 ba\u015f\u0131nda Ba\u011fdat’ta \u00f6ld\u00fcr\u00fclmesinden bu yana s\u00fcrekli olarak ABD’ye Irak’tan \u00e7ekilmesi \u00e7a\u011fr\u0131s\u0131nda bulunuyor. Son d\u00f6nemde I\u015e\u0130D’in Irak\u2019ta toprak kontrol\u00fc olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 dolay\u0131s\u0131yla \u00f6rg\u00fctten kaynaklanan tehdidin b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde azald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ileri s\u00fcrerek, ABD’nin \u00fclkede kalmas\u0131na gerek olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirttiler. ABD’nin 2003 y\u0131l\u0131ndaki i\u015fgali sonras\u0131 ilk geri \u00e7ekili\u015fi 2011 y\u0131l\u0131nda ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmi\u015fti. Ne var ki ABD\u2019nin mezk\u00fbr geri \u00e7ekili\u015fi Irak\u2019ta \u00e7ok sorunlu bir d\u00f6nemin ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n i\u015fareti oldu. ABD askerlerinin \u00e7ekilmesinden k\u0131sa bir s\u00fcre sonra Irak\u2019taki g\u00fcvenlik durumu h\u0131zl\u0131 bir \u015fekilde k\u00f6t\u00fcle\u015fti. D\u00f6nemin Irak Ba\u015fbakan\u0131 Nuri El Maliki’nin mezhep\u00e7i politikalar\u0131ndan kaynaklanan ve I\u015e\u0130D’in \u00fclkede y\u00fckseli\u015fine yol a\u00e7an olaylar silsilesi sonucunda 2014\u2019\u00fcn yaz aylar\u0131nda I\u015e\u0130D Irak\u2019ta aralar\u0131nda \u00fclkenin ikinci b\u00fcy\u00fck kenti Musul\u2019un da oldu\u011fu geni\u015f toprak par\u00e7alar\u0131n\u0131 ele ge\u00e7irdi. \u00d6rg\u00fct\u00fcn toprak kontrol\u00fcn\u00fc Hilafet ilan\u0131 takip etti. Nihayetinde ABD, 2014 y\u0131l\u0131nda Irak’a geri d\u00f6nerek I\u015e\u0130D kar\u015f\u0131t\u0131 Uluslararas\u0131 Koalisyon’u v\u00fccuda getirdi. Irak, I\u015e\u0130D’e kar\u015f\u0131 m\u00fccadelede zafer ilan etmi\u015f ve \u00f6rg\u00fct \u00fclkede kontrol etti\u011fi son toprak par\u00e7as\u0131n\u0131 2017[ii]<\/a> y\u0131l\u0131nda kaybetmi\u015f olsa da ABD Irak\u2019ta kalmaya devam etti. Irak’ta konu\u015flu yakla\u015f\u0131k 2500 ABD askerinin dan\u0131\u015fmanl\u0131k ve e\u011fitim g\u00f6revlerini \u00fcstlendi\u011fini belirtmekte fayda var. Yani Irak\u2019taki ABD askerleri muharip unsurlar[iii]<\/a> de\u011filler.<\/p>\nABD’nin Irak’tan Olas\u0131 \u00c7ekilmesinin Sonu\u00e7lar\u0131<\/strong><\/p>\n\u0130ran destekli gruplar\u0131n ABD \u00fcslerine y\u00f6nelik sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n bask\u0131s\u0131 sonucu ABD’nin Irak’tan olas\u0131 bir \u00e7ekilmesi, Tahran’\u0131n Irak siyasi ve askeri sahnesindeki muazzam n\u00fcfuzu g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcne al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, \u00fclkenin tamamen \u0130ran’a teslim edilmesi anlam\u0131na gelecektir. B\u00f6yle bir senaryo ne Erbil’de ne de kom\u015fu T\u00fcrkiye’de ho\u015f kar\u015f\u0131lanmayacakt\u0131r. Irak K\u00fcrdistan B\u00f6lgesi’nin (IKB) ba\u015fkenti Erbil, uzun s\u00fcredir Tahran destekli milislerin sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n bask\u0131s\u0131 alt\u0131ndayd\u0131. Bunun d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda ekonomik sorunlar ya\u015fayan Erbil, Ba\u011fdat’la olan b\u00fct\u00e7e anla\u015fmazl\u0131klar\u0131 nedeniyle kamu g\u00f6revlilerinin maa\u015flar\u0131n\u0131[iv]<\/a> dahi \u00f6demekte zorlan\u0131yor. Dahas\u0131 Irak Federal Y\u00fcksek Mahkemesi, ekonomiden siyasete kadar farkl\u0131 konularda \u00e7e\u015fitli kararlar vererek Erbil’e bask\u0131 yap\u0131yor. Federal Mahkeme’nin \u0130ran’\u0131n etkisi alt\u0131nda oldu\u011fu biliniyor ve mahkeme verdi\u011fi son kararlarla IKB\u2019nin \u00f6zerk stat\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fc baltal\u0131yor. Irak K\u00fcrdistan B\u00f6lgesi Ba\u015fbakan\u0131 Mesrur Barzani, IKB\u2019deki vahim durum nedeniyle Washington’a bir mektup[v]<\/a> yazd\u0131. B\u00f6lgenin \u00e7\u00f6kmesinden korkan Barzani ABD\u2019ye arabuluculu\u011fu \u00e7a\u011fr\u0131s\u0131nda bulundu. Ayr\u0131ca yak\u0131n bir d\u00f6nemde IKB Ba\u015fbakan\u0131 baz\u0131 toplant\u0131lara kat\u0131lmak \u00fczere yan\u0131ndaki heyetle birlikte Washington’u[vi]<\/a> ziyaret etti. Ba\u011fdat’\u0131n uygulad\u0131\u011f\u0131 ekonomik ve adli bask\u0131, Erbil’e diz \u00e7\u00f6kt\u00fcrmeyi ve b\u00f6lgeyi Tahran’\u0131n siyasi y\u00f6r\u00fcngesine sokmay\u0131 ama\u00e7l\u0131yor. Irak’taki K\u00fcrt yetkililer, ABD askerlerinin \u00fclkeden \u00e7ekilmesinin IKB\u2019nin \u00f6zerk stat\u00fcs\u00fcne daha fazla zarar verece\u011finden korkuyor. Ekonomiden g\u00fcvenli\u011fe kadar farkl\u0131 dosyalarda Ankara’n\u0131n Erbil’le olan g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ili\u015fkisi dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda b\u00f6yle bir durum T\u00fcrkiye’nin \u00e7\u0131karlar\u0131na da son derece ayk\u0131r\u0131d\u0131r.<\/p>\nAnkara ile Tahran aras\u0131nda b\u00f6lgedeki jeopolitik rekabet[vii]<\/a> de son y\u0131llarda derinle\u015fti. Bu nedenle Ankara, ne Irak’\u0131n, \u00f6zellikle de T\u00fcrkiye’nin tarihsel olarak n\u00fcfuz sahibi oldu\u011fu S\u00fcnni b\u00f6lgelerin, ne de Erbil’in tamamen \u0130ran kontrol\u00fcne girmesini istemez. Nitekim T\u00fcrkiye son d\u00f6nemde Ha\u015fdi \u015eabi liderleriyle Ba\u011fdat ve Ankara’da s\u0131kl\u0131kla g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. \u0130ran’\u0131n h\u00e2lihaz\u0131rda dahil olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 Kalk\u0131nma Yolu Projesi, T\u00fcrk ve Irakl\u0131 taraflar aras\u0131ndaki g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerin \u00f6nemli bir b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc olu\u015fturuyor. Tahran bu projenin ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesini sekteye u\u011fratabilecek g\u00fcce sahip oldu\u011fundan Ankara, \u0130ran destekli Ha\u015fdi \u015eabi liderleri de dahil olmak \u00fczere Irak h\u00fck\u00fcmetinin t\u00fcm taraflar\u0131yla bir anla\u015fmaya varmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131yor. T\u00fcrkiye, Ha\u015fdi \u015eabi\u2019nin \u0130ran bask\u0131s\u0131 alt\u0131nda Irak ekonomisini \u00e7e\u015fitlendirecek Kalk\u0131nma Yolu Projesi’ni sekteye u\u011fratmas\u0131n\u0131 istemedi\u011fi i\u00e7in Ha\u015fdi \u015eabi liderleriyle ileti\u015fim kanallar\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131k tutma konusunda olduk\u00e7a istekli. Bu \u015fekilde T\u00fcrkiye, Irak\u2019taki \u00e7\u0131karlar\u0131n\u0131 korumaya ve her ne kadar Ha\u015fdi \u015eabi\u2019nin \u0130ran y\u00f6r\u00fcngesinden tamamen \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131 m\u00fcmk\u00fcn olmasa da yap\u0131ya bir alternatif sunmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131yor.<\/p>\n\u00c7ok Kutuplu Bir D\u00fcnyan\u0131n Ortaya \u00c7\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131 ve ABD’nin G\u00fcvenilirli\u011finin Azalmas\u0131<\/strong><\/p>\n7 Ekim \u00f6ncesinde Amerikal\u0131 yetkililer Orta Do\u011fu b\u00f6lgesinin son yirmi y\u0131la nazaran \u00e7ok daha sakin oldu\u011funu ileri s\u00fcr\u00fcyorlard\u0131.[viii]<\/a> Hamas’\u0131n Aksa Tufan\u0131 Operasyonu ile beraber bu de\u011ferlendirmenin yanl\u0131\u015f oldu\u011fu ortaya \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131 ve ABD, \u00c7in ile olan b\u00fcy\u00fck g\u00fc\u00e7 rekabeti nedeniyle uzun s\u00fcredir Asya Pasifik b\u00f6lgesine \u00f6ncelik vermesine ra\u011fmen Ortado\u011fu’ya d\u00f6nmek zorunda kald\u0131. Hem Rusya hem de \u00c7in, farkl\u0131 stratejiler ve alanlarda da olsa Ortado\u011fu’daki n\u00fcfuzlar\u0131n\u0131 artt\u0131r\u0131yorlar. \u00dcstelik \u00e7ok kutuplu bir d\u00fcnya d\u00fczeni her ge\u00e7en g\u00fcn daha da belirginle\u015fiyor.[ix]<\/a> B\u00f6yle bir d\u00f6nemde ABD’nin Irak’tan \u00e7ekilme gibi bir maceraya at\u0131lmas\u0131 pek m\u00fcmk\u00fcn g\u00f6r\u00fcnm\u00fcyor. Zira b\u00f6ylesi bir ad\u0131m ABD\u2019nin Ortado\u011fu b\u00f6lgesindeki m\u00fcttefiklerinin g\u00f6z\u00fcnde g\u00fcvenilirli\u011fini daha da zedeleyecek bir hamle olur. ABD\u2019nin Afganistan’dan \u00e7ekildi\u011fi s\u00fcre\u00e7te ortaya \u00e7\u0131kan manzaralar Washington i\u00e7in uyar\u0131. Bug\u00fcn Orta Do\u011fu ve Kuzey Afrika B\u00f6lgesi’ndeki bir\u00e7ok \u00fclke, b\u00fcy\u00fck g\u00fc\u00e7ler rekabetinden yararlanarak Rusya ve \u00c7in ile giderek geli\u015fen ba\u011flar kuruyor. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla ABD\u2019nin b\u00f6lgedeki asker say\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 azaltmas\u0131 Ortado\u011fu\u2019dan tamamen \u00e7ekilece\u011fi anlam\u0131na gelmiyor.<\/p>\nYani Gazze krizi (b\u00f6lgesel konjonkt\u00fcr), Rusya ve \u00c7in\u2019in y\u00fckseli\u015fiyle ortaya \u00e7\u0131kan \u00e7ok kutuplu d\u00fcnya (uluslararas\u0131 konjonkt\u00fcr) ve ABD\u2019deki ba\u015fkanl\u0131k se\u00e7imleri (\u00fclke i\u00e7indeki \u00e7ekilme tart\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131) nedeniyle Ba\u015fkan Biden’\u0131n en az\u0131ndan yak\u0131n d\u00f6nemde Irak’tan bir \u00e7ekilme emri vermesi \u00e7ok muhtemel g\u00f6r\u00fcnm\u00fcyor. ABD \u00f6nc\u00fcl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcndeki Uluslararas\u0131 Koalisyon\u2019un, Irak’taki misyonunu sona erdirme konusunda Ba\u015fbakan Sudani ile g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeler yapmas\u0131, Tahran destekli milislerin Irak h\u00fck\u00fcmeti \u00fczerindeki bask\u0131lar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda[x]<\/a> Ba\u015fbakan\u2019a belli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde manevra alan\u0131 sa\u011flamay\u0131 ama\u00e7l\u0131yor olabilir.<\/p>\nSuriye\u2019deki Manzara ve ABD’nin Olas\u0131 \u00c7ekilmesi<\/strong><\/p>\nSuriye’deki durum Irak\u2019takinden daha az karma\u015f\u0131k de\u011fil. ABD askerlerinin Suriye’den \u00e7ekilmesi, ana omurgas\u0131n\u0131 PKK’n\u0131n Suriye kolu YPG’nin olu\u015fturdu\u011fu Suriye Demokratik G\u00fc\u00e7leri’nin terk edilmesi anlam\u0131na gelecektir. Washington, Suriye’de I\u015e\u0130D’e kar\u015f\u0131 m\u00fccadele \u00e7er\u00e7evesinde 2015’ten bu yana SDG\u2019yi tutarl\u0131 ve kararl\u0131 bir \u015fekilde destekledi. \u015eu anda Kuzeydo\u011fu Suriye’de 900 civar\u0131nda ABD askeri bulunuyor. Bu birliklerin \u00e7ekilmesi ilk bak\u0131\u015fta kom\u015fu T\u00fcrkiye i\u00e7in olumlu bir geli\u015fme gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcnse de Afganistan senaryosuna benzer \u015fekilde koordinesiz[xi]<\/a> bir geri \u00e7ekilme, Suriye’de \u0130ran ve Rusya’ya daha fazla alan a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131 anlam\u0131na gelecektir. H\u00e2lihaz\u0131rda ABD askerleri ile \u0130ran destekli milisleri ay\u0131ran tek \u015fey F\u0131rat Nehri. Taraflar nehrin farkl\u0131 k\u0131y\u0131lar\u0131nda bulunuyorlar. ABD kuvvetleri Suriye\u2019den geri \u00e7ekilir \u00e7ekilmez \u0130ran destekli milisler, bo\u015flu\u011fu doldurmak i\u00e7in nehrin bat\u0131 yakas\u0131ndan do\u011fu k\u0131sm\u0131na do\u011fru hareket edecektir. Suriye\u2019nin do\u011fusu uzun s\u00fcredir SDG’nin yumu\u015fak karn\u0131 olmaya devam ediyor. Deyrizor’da bir k\u0131sm\u0131 Suriye rejimiyle iltisakl\u0131 olan Arap a\u015firetleri ile SDG aras\u0131nda Eyl\u00fcl 2023’ten itibaren haftalarca s\u00fcren \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar ya\u015fand\u0131. \u00c7at\u0131\u015fmalar her iki taraftan onlarca ki\u015finin \u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcne ve yaralanmas\u0131na sebebiyet verdi. \u0130ran bu a\u015firetlerden de yararlanarak ABD\u2019nin muhtemel bir geri \u00e7ekilmesinden yararlanmaya haz\u0131r. Baz\u0131 raporlar\u0131 g\u00f6re, Devrim Muhaf\u0131zlar\u0131 Komutan\u0131 “Hac\u0131 Mehdi, Tahran’\u0131n Deyrizor’daki operasyonlar\u0131ndan sorumlu ve aktif bir \u015fekilde a\u015firetlerden asker dev\u015firiyor.”[xii]<\/a><\/p>\nBunlarla birlikte, ABD’nin PYD\/SDG ile Esed rejimi aras\u0131nda bir anla\u015fmaya[xiii]<\/a> var\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan Suriye’den \u00e7ekilece\u011fi iddia edilse de K\u00fcrt taraf\u0131n\u0131n \u015fu ana kadar yapt\u0131klar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamalar bu durumun aksini g\u00f6steriyor. SDG komutan\u0131 Mazlum Abdi, ABD’nin kendisine olas\u0131 bir \u00e7ekilme durumunda kendilerini korumalar\u0131 i\u00e7in \u015eam’la bir kanal a\u00e7mas\u0131n\u0131 tavsiye ettikleri iddias\u0131n\u0131 reddetti. \u00dcstelik Amerikal\u0131 yetkililerden, ABD’nin Suriye’den \u00e7ekilmesinin masada olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131na dair ‘net g\u00fcvenceler’[xiv]<\/a> ald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ileri s\u00fcrd\u00fc. Mart ay\u0131 ba\u015flar\u0131nda CENTCOM Komutan\u0131 General Michael Erik Kurilla, Ortado\u011fu\u2019daki g\u00fcvenlik durumunu do\u011frudan g\u00f6zlemlemek[xv]<\/a> ve sahadaki ortaklar\u0131yla g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmek \u00fczere b\u00f6lgesel gezisinin bir par\u00e7as\u0131 olarak Kuzeydo\u011fu Suriye’yi ziyaret etti. Kurilla ayr\u0131ca I\u015e\u0130D mensubu mahkumlar\u0131n\u0131n ailelerinin tutuldu\u011fu Roj ve Hol kamplar\u0131n\u0131 da ziyaret etti.<\/p>\nABD’nin bug\u00fcne kadar SDG\/PYD ile Esed rejimi aras\u0131nda bir uzla\u015f\u0131ya var\u0131lmas\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 da belirtmekte fayda var. \u00dcstelik ABD, Esed rejiminin yerel, b\u00f6lgesel ve uluslararas\u0131 d\u00fczeyde me\u015frula\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131na resmi olarak kar\u015f\u0131 \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. \u00d6rne\u011fin yak\u0131n zamanda ABD Temsilciler Meclisi, ABD’nin Esed rejimiyle normalle\u015fmesini engelleyen bir yasa tasar\u0131s\u0131n\u0131[xvi]<\/a> kabul etti. Tasar\u0131 ayn\u0131 zamanda Suriye\u2019ye uygulanan Sezar yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131[xvii]<\/a> da uzat\u0131yor.<\/p>\nABD’de b\u00f6ylesi bir durum varken, Washington’un Esed’e daha fazla me\u015fruiyet kazand\u0131racak ve Suriye’deki m\u00fcttefiklerini g\u00fc\u00e7lendirecek bir hamle olan \u00e7ekilme karar\u0131n\u0131 al\u0131p almayaca\u011f\u0131 net de\u011fil. ABD’nin yak\u0131n zamanda Suriye rejimi lideri Be\u015f\u015far Esed’e y\u00f6nelik tavr\u0131n\u0131 de\u011fi\u015ftirmeye karar verip vermedi\u011fi, e\u011fer de\u011fi\u015ftirdi ise de bu karara tam olarak neyin yol a\u00e7t\u0131\u011f\u0131 hen\u00fcz belli de\u011fil. Ayr\u0131ca \u015fu ana kadarki Suriye politikas\u0131n\u0131n gidi\u015fat\u0131n\u0131 de\u011fi\u015ftirmek, Washington’un Suriye politikas\u0131n\u0131n iflas\u0131n\u0131n ikrar\u0131 olman\u0131n yan\u0131nda, Rusya ile \u0130ran’\u0131n Suriye\u2019deki tutumlar\u0131n\u0131n do\u011fru oldu\u011funun \u00fcst\u00fc kapal\u0131 bir \u015fekilde kabul edilmesi anlam\u0131na da gelecektir. Washington en az\u0131ndan \u015fimdilik b\u00f6yle bir duruma s\u00fcr\u00fcklenmekten ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131yor gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Ayn\u0131 zamanda ABD’nin Suriye’deki ana m\u00fcttefiki olan SDG’nin komutan\u0131 Mazlum Abdi, son zamanlarda kontrolleri alt\u0131ndaki b\u00f6lgelerin ABD ile \u0130ran aras\u0131nda bir sava\u015f alan\u0131na[xviii]<\/a> d\u00f6nmesini istemediklerini s\u00f6yledi. Ne var ki, SDG kontrol\u00fcndeki[xix]<\/a> b\u00f6lgeler \u015fimdiden \u0130ran destekli milislerin hedefi haline gelmi\u015f durumda. SDG, \u0130ran destekli milislerin bir sald\u0131r\u0131s\u0131nda alt\u0131 \u00fcyesini bile kaybetti. Tahran, Suriye’de \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131n ba\u015flamas\u0131ndan bu yana n\u00fcfuzunu giderek art\u0131rd\u0131. ABD’nin Suriye’den olas\u0131 bir \u00e7ekilmesi-Suriye krizinin a\u011f\u0131r toplar\u0131ndan olan T\u00fcrkiye ile koordineli bir \u015fekilde yap\u0131lmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 takdirde-ba\u015fta \u0130ran, ard\u0131ndan da Rusya’n\u0131n Suriye\u2019deki n\u00fcfuzunu art\u0131rmas\u0131na sebebiyet verecektir. ABD, Suriye’den (koordinesiz \u00e7ekildi\u011fi takdirde) \u00fclkedeki g\u00fc\u00e7 dengesinin Esed’in m\u00fcttefikleri lehine ve T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin aleyhine de\u011fi\u015fmesi \u00e7ok muhtemel. Hele ki ABD’nin iddia edildi\u011fi gibi SDG\/PYD’yi Esed rejimiyle bir uzla\u015f\u0131ya zorlamas\u0131 ve \u015eam’\u0131n da SDG ve PYD-kontrol\u00fcndeki \u00d6zerk Y\u00f6netim\u2019e anayasal stat\u00fc vermesi durumunda-ki bu mevcut konjonkt\u00fcrde pek olas\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcnm\u00fcyor-Ankara b\u00f6ylesi bir vaziyetten derece rahats\u0131z olacakt\u0131r. PYD\/SDG taraf\u0131n\u0131n ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz y\u0131llarda Esed rejimiyle bir\u00e7ok g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmesi[xx]<\/a> oldu.<\/p>\nAncak iki taraf aras\u0131ndaki m\u00fczakereler sonu\u00e7suz kald\u0131 ve o zamandan bu yana ciddi bir geli\u015fme ya\u015fanmad\u0131. \u00dcstelik Esed rejimi Arap d\u00fcnyas\u0131nda daha fazla me\u015fruiyet kazand\u0131 ve \u015fu an SDG\/PYD ile herhangi bir m\u00fczakere kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda elinin g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Bu durum da, en az\u0131ndan yak\u0131n gelecekte SDG ile rejim aras\u0131nda bir anla\u015fma yap\u0131lmas\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 azalt\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Olas\u0131 bir koordinesiz ve ani geri \u00e7ekilme senaryosunda \u015f\u00fcphesiz Esed rejimi ve m\u00fcttefikleri, Suriye muhalefetinin kontrol\u00fcndeki b\u00f6lgelere sald\u0131rma konusunda daha da cesaretlenecektir. 2020 y\u0131l\u0131 ba\u015f\u0131ndan bu yana Suriye’deki kontrol b\u00f6lgelerinin s\u0131n\u0131rlar\u0131 de\u011fi\u015fmedi. Sahadaki mevcut g\u00fc\u00e7 dengesi, \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n taraf\u0131 olan akt\u00f6rlerin rakiplerine sald\u0131rmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7ok maliyetli hale getiriyor. ABD’nin Suriye\u2019den geri \u00e7ekilmesi durumunda bu g\u00fc\u00e7 dengesi bozulacak ve Esed rejimi ile m\u00fcttefikleri, Suriye muhalefetinin kontrol\u00fcndeki b\u00f6lgelere sald\u0131rma konusunda daha motive hale gelecekler. Bu senaryoda Ankara destekli Suriye Milli Ordusu kontrol\u00fcndeki b\u00f6lgeler ve 4 milyondan fazla insana ev sahipli\u011fi yapan \u0130dlib b\u00fcy\u00fck bir tehlike alt\u0131na girecek. Gazze trajedisinin devam etti\u011fi bir d\u00f6nemde Suriyeli muhaliflerin kontrol\u00fcndeki b\u00f6lgelere olas\u0131 bir rejim-m\u00fcttefik sald\u0131r\u0131s\u0131 yeni bir insani felakete yol a\u00e7abilir. B\u00f6yle bir durumda T\u00fcrkiye’ye yeni bir m\u00fclteci ak\u0131n\u0131 uzak bir senaryo olmayacakt\u0131r. Ortaya \u00e7\u0131kabilecek b\u00f6yle bir senaryo sadece Ankara’y\u0131 de\u011fil, Avrupa \u00fclkelerini de etkileyecektir.<\/p>\n
Sonu\u00e7<\/strong><\/p>\nK\u0131sacas\u0131, koordinasyonsuz ve ani bir geri \u00e7ekilme, \u015f\u00fcphesiz Ankara’y\u0131 zor bir duruma sokacakt\u0131r. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla Ankara-Washington ili\u015fkilerinin d\u00fczelmeye ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir d\u00f6nemde ABD’nin b\u00f6ylesine mant\u0131ks\u0131z bir ad\u0131m at\u0131p atmayaca\u011f\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fck bir soru i\u015fareti.<\/p>\n
Ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz g\u00fcnlerde T\u00fcrkiye D\u0131\u015fi\u015fleri Bakan\u0131 Hakan Fidan, ABD-T\u00fcrkiye Stratejik Mekanizma toplant\u0131lar\u0131na kat\u0131lmak \u00fczere ABD’li yetkililerin daveti \u00fczerine heyetiyle birlikte Washington’u ziyaret etmi\u015fti. Milli \u0130stihbarat Ba\u015fkan\u0131 \u0130brahim Kal\u0131n da mevkida\u015f\u0131 William Burns ile g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmek \u00fczere ABD\u2019deydi.[xxi]<\/a> Blinken-Fidan g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmesinin ard\u0131ndan olumlu bir ortak[xxii]<\/a> a\u00e7\u0131klama yay\u0131mland\u0131.<\/p>\nTaraflar ter\u00f6rle m\u00fccadelede ortak kararl\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 vurgulad\u0131. Ayr\u0131ca T\u00fcrkiye’nin \u0130sve\u00e7’in NATO’ya kat\u0131l\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 onaylamas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan T\u00fcrkiye\u2019ye F-16\u2019a sat\u0131\u015f\u0131nda ya\u015fanan sorunlar\u0131n ortadan kalkmas\u0131 gibi kritik olumlu geli\u015fmeler de ya\u015fand\u0131. Ayr\u0131ca ABD, T\u00fcrkiye’nin F-35 program\u0131na d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fc konusunda da kap\u0131y\u0131 tamamen kapatm\u0131\u015f de\u011fil. Bunlar\u0131n yan\u0131nda iki taraf, Ankara ile Washington aras\u0131nda 30 milyar dolar civar\u0131nda seyreden ticaret hacminin 100 milyar dolara \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 istiyor.[xxiii]<\/a><\/p>\nBu \u00f6nemli konularda ili\u015fkilerin h\u0131zla geli\u015fti\u011fi bir d\u00f6nemde Washington’un, en az\u0131ndan yak\u0131n bir zaman diliminde hem Washington’a hem de Ankara’ya zarar verecek koordinasyonsuz ve zamans\u0131z bir geri \u00e7ekilmeye giri\u015fmesi pek m\u00fcmk\u00fcn g\u00f6r\u00fcnm\u00fcyor. Ancak ABD’de 2024 se\u00e7imlerini \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclemeyen Donald Trump kazan\u0131rsa, koordinasyondan ve zamandan ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z olarak \u00e7ekilme senaryosu daha ger\u00e7ek\u00e7i bir hale gelebilir. Trump, ABD askerlerinin, Trump’\u0131n yaln\u0131zca ‘\u00f6l\u00fcm ve kum’ g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc Irak ve\/veya Suriye’den \u00e7ekilmesi emrini verebilir.[xxiv]<\/a> Irak’\u0131n Suriye’deki ABD birliklerinin ana lojistik merkezi oldu\u011funu belirtmekte de fayda var. Irak’tan \u00e7ekilme Suriye’deki durumu da \u015f\u00fcphesiz ki etkileyecektir. Suriye’den muhtemel bir geri \u00e7ekilme karar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda CENTCOM \u015f\u00fcphesiz direnmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015facakt\u0131r. Ancak ne \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde ve ne zamana kadar direnebilece\u011fi ba\u015fka bir konu. Trump, askerlerini Suriye’den \u00e7ekme niyetini a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, d\u00f6nemin ABD Savunma Bakan\u0131 James Mattis, 2018 sonlar\u0131nda bu karara kat\u0131lmamas\u0131 nedeniyle g\u00f6revinden istifa etmi\u015fti.[xxv]<\/a><\/p>\nABD askerlerinin Suriye’den k\u0131smi \u00e7ekilmesi, T\u00fcrkiye’nin 2019’da Bar\u0131\u015f P\u0131nar\u0131 Harekat\u0131’n\u0131n yolunu a\u00e7m\u0131\u015ft\u0131.[xxvi]<\/a> ABD’nin Suriye’den koordineli bir \u015fekilde \u00e7ekilmesi, t\u0131pk\u0131 2019’da oldu\u011fu gibi T\u00fcrkiye’nin Suriye’de yeni bir operasyon d\u00fczenlemesine de yol a\u00e7abilir. T\u00fcrkiye, aylard\u0131r Suriye’deki PKK\/SDG ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 isimlere insans\u0131z hava arac\u0131 sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131 d\u00fczenliyor. Ayr\u0131ca SDG kontrol\u00fcndeki altyap\u0131 ve PYD kontrol\u00fcndeki \u00d6zerk Y\u00f6netim\u2019in gelir kaynaklar\u0131n\u0131[xxvii]<\/a> kurutmak amac\u0131yla petrol sahalar\u0131n\u0131 hedef al\u0131yor. ABD’nin Irak ve Suriye’den \u00e7ekilmesi durumunda yukar\u0131da belirtilen senaryolardan hangisinin ger\u00e7ekle\u015fece\u011fini ancak zaman g\u00f6sterecek. \u015eimdilik bir geri \u00e7ekilme karar\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcnde pek \u00e7ok belirsizlik yat\u0131yor. ABD’de bu sene ger\u00e7ekle\u015fecek ba\u015fkanl\u0131k se\u00e7imi sonu\u00e7lar\u0131 muhtemel bir geri \u00e7ekilme karar\u0131nda belirleyici olacak. Ancak bahse konu se\u00e7imlere neredeyse bir y\u0131l var. Bu d\u00f6nem, istikrars\u0131z Ortado\u011fu’da son derece uzun ve se\u00e7imlere kadar geri \u00e7ekilme karar\u0131n\u0131 etkilemesi muhtemel pek \u00e7ok yeni b\u00f6lgesel ve uluslararas\u0131 dinamik ortaya \u00e7\u0131kabilir.<\/p>\nReferanslar<\/b><\/p>\n
[i]<\/a> Bkz. https:\/\/twitter.com\/IraqiPMO\/status\/1751207722911928460<\/a><\/p>\n[ii]<\/a> Margaret Coker and Falih Hassan, Iraq Prime Minister Declares Victory Over ISIS, New York Times, 9 Aral\u0131k 2017, https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2017\/12\/09\/world\/middleeast\/iraq-isis-haider-al-abadi.html<\/a><\/p>\n[iii]<\/a> Americans in Iraq will continue to be attacked, despite \u2018non-combat\u2019 role, Concerned Veterans for America, 25 Ocak 2022, https:\/\/cv4a.org\/the-overwatch\/americans-in-iraq-continue-to-be-attacked-despite-non-combat-role\/<\/a><\/p>\n[iv]<\/a> Delay in paying salaries takes toll on Erbil market, Rudaw, 5 Ekim 2023, https:\/\/www.rudaw.net\/english\/kurdistan\/051020231<\/a><\/p>\n[v]<\/a> Amberin Zaman, In letter to Biden, Barzani warns of Iraqi Kurdistan’s collapse, urges mediation, Al Monitor, 12 Eyl\u00fcl 2023, https:\/\/www.al-monitor.com\/originals\/2023\/09\/letter-biden-barzani-warns-iraqi-kurdistans-collapse-urges-mediation<\/a><\/p>\n[vi]<\/a> Prime Minister Masrour Barzani Embarks on Official Visit to Washington, Kurdistan Regional Government, 25 \u015eubat 2024, https:\/\/gov.krd\/english\/government\/the-prime-minister\/activities\/posts\/2024\/february\/prime-minister-masrour-barzani-embarks-on-official-visit-to-washington\/<\/a><\/p>\n[vii]<\/a> Mehmet Emin Cengiz, The Future of the Iranian-Turkish Relationship: A Contained Geopolitical Rivalry or A Possible Escalation Between Ankara and Tehran?, Al Sharq Strategic Research, 20 Eyl\u00fcl 2022, https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/2022\/09\/20\/iranian-turkish-relationship\/<\/a><\/p>\n[viii]<\/a> Gal Beckerman, \u2018The Middle East Region Is Quieter Today Than It Has Been in Two Decades\u2019, The Atlantic, 7 Ekim 2023, https:\/\/www.theatlantic.com\/international\/archive\/2023\/10\/israel-war-middle-east-jake-sullivan\/675580\/<\/a><\/p>\n[ix]<\/a> The Gaza Crisis and Emerging Multipolar World, Al Sharq Strategic Research, 3 Kas\u0131m 2023, https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/2023\/11\/03\/the-gaza-crisis-and-emerging-multipolar-world\/<\/a><\/p>\n[x]<\/a> US Troops in Middle East: What Are They Doing and Where?, Voice of America (VOA), 3 \u015eubat 2024, https:\/\/www.voanews.com\/a\/us-troops-in-middle-east-what-are-they-doing-and-where-\/7469452.html<\/a><\/p>\n[xi]<\/a> \u00d6mer \u00d6zkizilcik, Here\u2019s what an uncoordinated US withdrawal from Syria would look like. It\u2019s bad for many partners, but especially Turkey, Atlantic Council, 20 \u015eubat 2024, https:\/\/www.atlanticcouncil.org\/blogs\/menasource\/syria-withdrawal-turkey-us-hts\/<\/a><\/p>\n[xii]<\/a> Sean Mathews, Kurdish groups gripped by fear as they brace for a US pullout from northeast Syria, Middle East Eye, 7 Mart 2024, https:\/\/www.middleeasteye.net\/news\/kurds-fear-as-they-brace-us-pullout-northern-syria<\/a><\/p>\n[xiii]<\/a>Amberin Zaman, Pentagon floats plan for its Syrian Kurd allies to partner with Assad against ISIS, Al Monitor, 22 Ocak 2024, https:\/\/www.al-monitor.com\/originals\/2024\/01\/pentagon-floats-plan-its-syrian-kurd-allies-partner-assad-against-isis<\/a><\/p>\n[xiv]<\/a> Elie Youssef, SDF Commander: No Withdrawal of US Forces from Syria, Asharq Al-Awsat, 10 \u015eubat 2024, https:\/\/english.aawsat.com\/arab-world\/4845366-sdf-commander-no-withdrawal-us-forces-syria<\/a><\/p>\n[xv]<\/a>CENTCOM commander visits US bases in Syria, Enab Baladi, 4 Mart 2024, https:\/\/english.enabbaladi.net\/archives\/2024\/03\/centcom-commander-visits-us-bases-in-syria\/<\/a><\/p>\n[xvi]<\/a> US lawmakers pass anti-Assad Syria Anti-Normalisation Act, The New Arab, 15 \u015eubat 2024, https:\/\/www.newarab.com\/news\/us-lawmakers-pass-anti-assad-syria-anti-normalisation-act<\/a><\/p>\n[xvii]<\/a> A.g.e.<\/p>\n[xviii]<\/a> Syria Today \u2013 SDF Leader Says Syria Shouldn\u2019t Become US-Iran Battleground; UNGA Asks Israel to Withdraw From Golan, The Syrian Observer, 30 Kas\u0131m 2023, https:\/\/syrianobserver.com\/news\/86459\/syria-today-sdf-leader-says-syria-shouldnt-become-us-iran-battleground-unga-asks-israel-to-withdraw-from-golan.html<\/a><\/p>\n[xix]<\/a> Beatrice Farhat, 6 Kurdish SDF forces killed in Iran-linked attack on Syria base housing US troops, Al Monitor, 5 \u015eubat 2024, https:\/\/www.al-monitor.com\/originals\/2024\/02\/6-kurdish-sdf-forces-killed-iran-linked-attack-syria-base-housing-us-troops<\/a><\/p>\n[xx]<\/a> Mehmet Emin Cengiz and Bedir Mulla Rashid, Thorny Challenges for the PYD-led Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria, Al Sharq Strategic Research, 20 Haziran 2020, https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/2020\/06\/20\/north-and-east-syria\/<\/a><\/p>\n <\/p>\n
[xxi]<\/a> Aylin Dal, Turkish intelligence chief to hold talks in US, Anadolu Agency, 5 Mart 2024, https:\/\/www.aa.com.tr\/en\/americas\/turkish-intelligence-chief-to-hold-talks-in-us\/3155362<\/a><\/p>\n[xxii]<\/a> Joint Statement on the U.S.-T\u00fcrkiye Strategic Mechanism, US Embassy&Consulates in T\u00fcrkiye, 9 Mart 2024, https:\/\/tr.usembassy.gov\/joint-statement-on-the-u-s-turkiye-strategic-mechanism-2\/<\/a><\/p>\n[xxiii]<\/a> Fatma Eda Top\u00e7u, T\u00fcrkiye, US have entered \u2018new era\u2019 in trade relations: Business council head, Anadolu Agency, 8 Eyl\u00fcl 2023, https:\/\/www.aa.com.tr\/en\/turkiye\/turkiye-us-have-entered-new-era-in-trade-relations-business-council-head\/2986349<\/a><\/p>\n[xxiv]<\/a> Richard Hall, Trump says Syria is \u2018sand and death\u2019 in defence of troop withdrawal, The Independent, 3 Ocak 2019, https:\/\/www.independent.co.uk\/news\/world\/middle-east\/trump-syria-troop-withdrawal-us-sand-death-cabinet-meeting-military-a8709131.html<\/a><\/p>\n[xxv]<\/a> Veronica Rocha and Sophie Tatum, Defense Secretary James Mattis resigns, CNN, 20 Aral\u0131k 2018, https:\/\/edition.cnn.com\/politics\/live-news\/james-mattis-resigns\/index.html<\/a><\/p>\n[xxvi]<\/a> Matthew Cebul, Operation \u2018\u2018Peace Spring\u2019\u2019 and U.S. Strategy in Syria, Foreign Policy Research Institute, 11 Ekim 2019, https:\/\/www.fpri.org\/article\/2019\/10\/operation-peace-spring-and-u-s-strategy-in-syria\/<\/a><\/p>\n[xxvii]<\/a> Mehmet Emin Cengiz, Syria in 2024: Return to the Regional Focus, Al Sharq Strategic Research, 17 Ocak 2024, https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/2024\/01\/17\/syria-in-2024-return-to-the-regional-focus\/<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Aylard\u0131r Ortado\u011fu siyasetinin odak noktas\u0131nda yer alan, dahas\u0131 bir insanl\u0131k trajedisine d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fen vahim Gazze krizinin ortas\u0131nda ve \u0130ran destekli milislerin Suriye ve Irak’taki ABD \u00fcslerine d\u00fczenledi\u011fi d\u00fczinelerce sald\u0131r\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan, bir s\u00fcredir ABD’nin bahse konu iki \u00fclkeden \u00e7ekilece\u011fi y\u00f6n\u00fcnde s\u00f6ylentiler yeniden dola\u015f\u0131mda<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":57,"featured_media":37660,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","ngg_post_thumbnail":0},"categories":[361],"tags":[],"asf_pub_issue":[10319],"asf_pub_region":[10321,17580,17588],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/37678"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/57"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=37678"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/37678\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":37688,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/37678\/revisions\/37688"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/37660"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=37678"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=37678"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=37678"},{"taxonomy":"asf_pub_issue","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/asf_pub_issue?post=37678"},{"taxonomy":"asf_pub_region","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/asf_pub_region?post=37678"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}
(Bu metin \u0130ngilizce orijinal versiyonundan terc\u00fcme edilmi\u015ftir.)<\/em><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n Giri\u015f<\/strong><\/p>\n Aylard\u0131r Ortado\u011fu siyasetinin odak noktas\u0131nda yer alan, dahas\u0131 bir insanl\u0131k trajedisine d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fen vahim Gazze krizinin ortas\u0131nda ve \u0130ran destekli milislerin Suriye ve Irak’taki ABD \u00fcslerine d\u00fczenledi\u011fi d\u00fczinelerce sald\u0131r\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan, bir s\u00fcredir ABD’nin bahse konu iki \u00fclkeden \u00e7ekilece\u011fi y\u00f6n\u00fcnde s\u00f6ylentiler yeniden dola\u015f\u0131mda. Ancak konu \u015fu ana kadar netlik kazanm\u0131\u015f de\u011fil. ABD’nin d\u00fczenledi\u011fi ve Ha\u015fdi \u015eabi’nin \u00fcst d\u00fczey komutanlar\u0131n\u0131n hayat\u0131na mal olan misilleme sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan Irak Ba\u015fbakan\u0131 Muhammed \u015eiya es-Sudani, ABD\u2019nin liderlik etti\u011fi I\u015e\u0130D\u2019e kar\u015f\u0131 olu\u015fturulan Uluslararas\u0131 Koalisyon\u2019dan \u00fcst d\u00fczey yetkililerle bir araya geldi. Toplant\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan Irak Ba\u015fbakanl\u0131k Medya Ofisi’nden \u015fu a\u00e7\u0131klama yap\u0131ld\u0131: ”Askeri uzmanlar, DEA\u015e’a (I\u015e\u0130D) Kar\u015f\u0131 Uluslararas\u0131 Koalisyon’un v\u00fccuda gelmesinin \u00fczerinden 10 y\u0131l ge\u00e7tikten ve Koalisyon\u2019un Irak askeri ve g\u00fcvenlik g\u00fc\u00e7leriyle (\u00f6rg\u00fcte kar\u015f\u0131) ortak ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan, Koalisyon\u2019un askeri misyonunun sona erdirilmesini denetleyecektir.”[i]<\/a><\/p>\n Irakl\u0131 yetkililer, \u0130ran Devrim Muhaf\u0131zlar\u0131 Ordusu’nun d\u0131\u015f kanad\u0131 olan Kud\u00fcs G\u00fcc\u00fc komutan\u0131 Kas\u0131m S\u00fcleymani’nin 2020 ba\u015f\u0131nda Ba\u011fdat’ta \u00f6ld\u00fcr\u00fclmesinden bu yana s\u00fcrekli olarak ABD’ye Irak’tan \u00e7ekilmesi \u00e7a\u011fr\u0131s\u0131nda bulunuyor. Son d\u00f6nemde I\u015e\u0130D’in Irak\u2019ta toprak kontrol\u00fc olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 dolay\u0131s\u0131yla \u00f6rg\u00fctten kaynaklanan tehdidin b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde azald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ileri s\u00fcrerek, ABD’nin \u00fclkede kalmas\u0131na gerek olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirttiler. ABD’nin 2003 y\u0131l\u0131ndaki i\u015fgali sonras\u0131 ilk geri \u00e7ekili\u015fi 2011 y\u0131l\u0131nda ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmi\u015fti. Ne var ki ABD\u2019nin mezk\u00fbr geri \u00e7ekili\u015fi Irak\u2019ta \u00e7ok sorunlu bir d\u00f6nemin ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n i\u015fareti oldu. ABD askerlerinin \u00e7ekilmesinden k\u0131sa bir s\u00fcre sonra Irak\u2019taki g\u00fcvenlik durumu h\u0131zl\u0131 bir \u015fekilde k\u00f6t\u00fcle\u015fti. D\u00f6nemin Irak Ba\u015fbakan\u0131 Nuri El Maliki’nin mezhep\u00e7i politikalar\u0131ndan kaynaklanan ve I\u015e\u0130D’in \u00fclkede y\u00fckseli\u015fine yol a\u00e7an olaylar silsilesi sonucunda 2014\u2019\u00fcn yaz aylar\u0131nda I\u015e\u0130D Irak\u2019ta aralar\u0131nda \u00fclkenin ikinci b\u00fcy\u00fck kenti Musul\u2019un da oldu\u011fu geni\u015f toprak par\u00e7alar\u0131n\u0131 ele ge\u00e7irdi. \u00d6rg\u00fct\u00fcn toprak kontrol\u00fcn\u00fc Hilafet ilan\u0131 takip etti. Nihayetinde ABD, 2014 y\u0131l\u0131nda Irak’a geri d\u00f6nerek I\u015e\u0130D kar\u015f\u0131t\u0131 Uluslararas\u0131 Koalisyon’u v\u00fccuda getirdi. Irak, I\u015e\u0130D’e kar\u015f\u0131 m\u00fccadelede zafer ilan etmi\u015f ve \u00f6rg\u00fct \u00fclkede kontrol etti\u011fi son toprak par\u00e7as\u0131n\u0131 2017[ii]<\/a> y\u0131l\u0131nda kaybetmi\u015f olsa da ABD Irak\u2019ta kalmaya devam etti. Irak’ta konu\u015flu yakla\u015f\u0131k 2500 ABD askerinin dan\u0131\u015fmanl\u0131k ve e\u011fitim g\u00f6revlerini \u00fcstlendi\u011fini belirtmekte fayda var. Yani Irak\u2019taki ABD askerleri muharip unsurlar[iii]<\/a> de\u011filler.<\/p>\n ABD’nin Irak’tan Olas\u0131 \u00c7ekilmesinin Sonu\u00e7lar\u0131<\/strong><\/p>\n \u0130ran destekli gruplar\u0131n ABD \u00fcslerine y\u00f6nelik sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n bask\u0131s\u0131 sonucu ABD’nin Irak’tan olas\u0131 bir \u00e7ekilmesi, Tahran’\u0131n Irak siyasi ve askeri sahnesindeki muazzam n\u00fcfuzu g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcne al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, \u00fclkenin tamamen \u0130ran’a teslim edilmesi anlam\u0131na gelecektir. B\u00f6yle bir senaryo ne Erbil’de ne de kom\u015fu T\u00fcrkiye’de ho\u015f kar\u015f\u0131lanmayacakt\u0131r. Irak K\u00fcrdistan B\u00f6lgesi’nin (IKB) ba\u015fkenti Erbil, uzun s\u00fcredir Tahran destekli milislerin sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n bask\u0131s\u0131 alt\u0131ndayd\u0131. Bunun d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda ekonomik sorunlar ya\u015fayan Erbil, Ba\u011fdat’la olan b\u00fct\u00e7e anla\u015fmazl\u0131klar\u0131 nedeniyle kamu g\u00f6revlilerinin maa\u015flar\u0131n\u0131[iv]<\/a> dahi \u00f6demekte zorlan\u0131yor. Dahas\u0131 Irak Federal Y\u00fcksek Mahkemesi, ekonomiden siyasete kadar farkl\u0131 konularda \u00e7e\u015fitli kararlar vererek Erbil’e bask\u0131 yap\u0131yor. Federal Mahkeme’nin \u0130ran’\u0131n etkisi alt\u0131nda oldu\u011fu biliniyor ve mahkeme verdi\u011fi son kararlarla IKB\u2019nin \u00f6zerk stat\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fc baltal\u0131yor. Irak K\u00fcrdistan B\u00f6lgesi Ba\u015fbakan\u0131 Mesrur Barzani, IKB\u2019deki vahim durum nedeniyle Washington’a bir mektup[v]<\/a> yazd\u0131. B\u00f6lgenin \u00e7\u00f6kmesinden korkan Barzani ABD\u2019ye arabuluculu\u011fu \u00e7a\u011fr\u0131s\u0131nda bulundu. Ayr\u0131ca yak\u0131n bir d\u00f6nemde IKB Ba\u015fbakan\u0131 baz\u0131 toplant\u0131lara kat\u0131lmak \u00fczere yan\u0131ndaki heyetle birlikte Washington’u[vi]<\/a> ziyaret etti. Ba\u011fdat’\u0131n uygulad\u0131\u011f\u0131 ekonomik ve adli bask\u0131, Erbil’e diz \u00e7\u00f6kt\u00fcrmeyi ve b\u00f6lgeyi Tahran’\u0131n siyasi y\u00f6r\u00fcngesine sokmay\u0131 ama\u00e7l\u0131yor. Irak’taki K\u00fcrt yetkililer, ABD askerlerinin \u00fclkeden \u00e7ekilmesinin IKB\u2019nin \u00f6zerk stat\u00fcs\u00fcne daha fazla zarar verece\u011finden korkuyor. Ekonomiden g\u00fcvenli\u011fe kadar farkl\u0131 dosyalarda Ankara’n\u0131n Erbil’le olan g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ili\u015fkisi dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda b\u00f6yle bir durum T\u00fcrkiye’nin \u00e7\u0131karlar\u0131na da son derece ayk\u0131r\u0131d\u0131r.<\/p>\n Ankara ile Tahran aras\u0131nda b\u00f6lgedeki jeopolitik rekabet[vii]<\/a> de son y\u0131llarda derinle\u015fti. Bu nedenle Ankara, ne Irak’\u0131n, \u00f6zellikle de T\u00fcrkiye’nin tarihsel olarak n\u00fcfuz sahibi oldu\u011fu S\u00fcnni b\u00f6lgelerin, ne de Erbil’in tamamen \u0130ran kontrol\u00fcne girmesini istemez. Nitekim T\u00fcrkiye son d\u00f6nemde Ha\u015fdi \u015eabi liderleriyle Ba\u011fdat ve Ankara’da s\u0131kl\u0131kla g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. \u0130ran’\u0131n h\u00e2lihaz\u0131rda dahil olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 Kalk\u0131nma Yolu Projesi, T\u00fcrk ve Irakl\u0131 taraflar aras\u0131ndaki g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerin \u00f6nemli bir b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc olu\u015fturuyor. Tahran bu projenin ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesini sekteye u\u011fratabilecek g\u00fcce sahip oldu\u011fundan Ankara, \u0130ran destekli Ha\u015fdi \u015eabi liderleri de dahil olmak \u00fczere Irak h\u00fck\u00fcmetinin t\u00fcm taraflar\u0131yla bir anla\u015fmaya varmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131yor. T\u00fcrkiye, Ha\u015fdi \u015eabi\u2019nin \u0130ran bask\u0131s\u0131 alt\u0131nda Irak ekonomisini \u00e7e\u015fitlendirecek Kalk\u0131nma Yolu Projesi’ni sekteye u\u011fratmas\u0131n\u0131 istemedi\u011fi i\u00e7in Ha\u015fdi \u015eabi liderleriyle ileti\u015fim kanallar\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131k tutma konusunda olduk\u00e7a istekli. Bu \u015fekilde T\u00fcrkiye, Irak\u2019taki \u00e7\u0131karlar\u0131n\u0131 korumaya ve her ne kadar Ha\u015fdi \u015eabi\u2019nin \u0130ran y\u00f6r\u00fcngesinden tamamen \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131 m\u00fcmk\u00fcn olmasa da yap\u0131ya bir alternatif sunmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131yor.<\/p>\n \u00c7ok Kutuplu Bir D\u00fcnyan\u0131n Ortaya \u00c7\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131 ve ABD’nin G\u00fcvenilirli\u011finin Azalmas\u0131<\/strong><\/p>\n 7 Ekim \u00f6ncesinde Amerikal\u0131 yetkililer Orta Do\u011fu b\u00f6lgesinin son yirmi y\u0131la nazaran \u00e7ok daha sakin oldu\u011funu ileri s\u00fcr\u00fcyorlard\u0131.[viii]<\/a> Hamas’\u0131n Aksa Tufan\u0131 Operasyonu ile beraber bu de\u011ferlendirmenin yanl\u0131\u015f oldu\u011fu ortaya \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131 ve ABD, \u00c7in ile olan b\u00fcy\u00fck g\u00fc\u00e7 rekabeti nedeniyle uzun s\u00fcredir Asya Pasifik b\u00f6lgesine \u00f6ncelik vermesine ra\u011fmen Ortado\u011fu’ya d\u00f6nmek zorunda kald\u0131. Hem Rusya hem de \u00c7in, farkl\u0131 stratejiler ve alanlarda da olsa Ortado\u011fu’daki n\u00fcfuzlar\u0131n\u0131 artt\u0131r\u0131yorlar. \u00dcstelik \u00e7ok kutuplu bir d\u00fcnya d\u00fczeni her ge\u00e7en g\u00fcn daha da belirginle\u015fiyor.[ix]<\/a> B\u00f6yle bir d\u00f6nemde ABD’nin Irak’tan \u00e7ekilme gibi bir maceraya at\u0131lmas\u0131 pek m\u00fcmk\u00fcn g\u00f6r\u00fcnm\u00fcyor. Zira b\u00f6ylesi bir ad\u0131m ABD\u2019nin Ortado\u011fu b\u00f6lgesindeki m\u00fcttefiklerinin g\u00f6z\u00fcnde g\u00fcvenilirli\u011fini daha da zedeleyecek bir hamle olur. ABD\u2019nin Afganistan’dan \u00e7ekildi\u011fi s\u00fcre\u00e7te ortaya \u00e7\u0131kan manzaralar Washington i\u00e7in uyar\u0131. Bug\u00fcn Orta Do\u011fu ve Kuzey Afrika B\u00f6lgesi’ndeki bir\u00e7ok \u00fclke, b\u00fcy\u00fck g\u00fc\u00e7ler rekabetinden yararlanarak Rusya ve \u00c7in ile giderek geli\u015fen ba\u011flar kuruyor. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla ABD\u2019nin b\u00f6lgedeki asker say\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 azaltmas\u0131 Ortado\u011fu\u2019dan tamamen \u00e7ekilece\u011fi anlam\u0131na gelmiyor.<\/p>\n Yani Gazze krizi (b\u00f6lgesel konjonkt\u00fcr), Rusya ve \u00c7in\u2019in y\u00fckseli\u015fiyle ortaya \u00e7\u0131kan \u00e7ok kutuplu d\u00fcnya (uluslararas\u0131 konjonkt\u00fcr) ve ABD\u2019deki ba\u015fkanl\u0131k se\u00e7imleri (\u00fclke i\u00e7indeki \u00e7ekilme tart\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131) nedeniyle Ba\u015fkan Biden’\u0131n en az\u0131ndan yak\u0131n d\u00f6nemde Irak’tan bir \u00e7ekilme emri vermesi \u00e7ok muhtemel g\u00f6r\u00fcnm\u00fcyor. ABD \u00f6nc\u00fcl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcndeki Uluslararas\u0131 Koalisyon\u2019un, Irak’taki misyonunu sona erdirme konusunda Ba\u015fbakan Sudani ile g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeler yapmas\u0131, Tahran destekli milislerin Irak h\u00fck\u00fcmeti \u00fczerindeki bask\u0131lar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda[x]<\/a> Ba\u015fbakan\u2019a belli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde manevra alan\u0131 sa\u011flamay\u0131 ama\u00e7l\u0131yor olabilir.<\/p>\n Suriye\u2019deki Manzara ve ABD’nin Olas\u0131 \u00c7ekilmesi<\/strong><\/p>\n Suriye’deki durum Irak\u2019takinden daha az karma\u015f\u0131k de\u011fil. ABD askerlerinin Suriye’den \u00e7ekilmesi, ana omurgas\u0131n\u0131 PKK’n\u0131n Suriye kolu YPG’nin olu\u015fturdu\u011fu Suriye Demokratik G\u00fc\u00e7leri’nin terk edilmesi anlam\u0131na gelecektir. Washington, Suriye’de I\u015e\u0130D’e kar\u015f\u0131 m\u00fccadele \u00e7er\u00e7evesinde 2015’ten bu yana SDG\u2019yi tutarl\u0131 ve kararl\u0131 bir \u015fekilde destekledi. \u015eu anda Kuzeydo\u011fu Suriye’de 900 civar\u0131nda ABD askeri bulunuyor. Bu birliklerin \u00e7ekilmesi ilk bak\u0131\u015fta kom\u015fu T\u00fcrkiye i\u00e7in olumlu bir geli\u015fme gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcnse de Afganistan senaryosuna benzer \u015fekilde koordinesiz[xi]<\/a> bir geri \u00e7ekilme, Suriye’de \u0130ran ve Rusya’ya daha fazla alan a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131 anlam\u0131na gelecektir. H\u00e2lihaz\u0131rda ABD askerleri ile \u0130ran destekli milisleri ay\u0131ran tek \u015fey F\u0131rat Nehri. Taraflar nehrin farkl\u0131 k\u0131y\u0131lar\u0131nda bulunuyorlar. ABD kuvvetleri Suriye\u2019den geri \u00e7ekilir \u00e7ekilmez \u0130ran destekli milisler, bo\u015flu\u011fu doldurmak i\u00e7in nehrin bat\u0131 yakas\u0131ndan do\u011fu k\u0131sm\u0131na do\u011fru hareket edecektir. Suriye\u2019nin do\u011fusu uzun s\u00fcredir SDG’nin yumu\u015fak karn\u0131 olmaya devam ediyor. Deyrizor’da bir k\u0131sm\u0131 Suriye rejimiyle iltisakl\u0131 olan Arap a\u015firetleri ile SDG aras\u0131nda Eyl\u00fcl 2023’ten itibaren haftalarca s\u00fcren \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar ya\u015fand\u0131. \u00c7at\u0131\u015fmalar her iki taraftan onlarca ki\u015finin \u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcne ve yaralanmas\u0131na sebebiyet verdi. \u0130ran bu a\u015firetlerden de yararlanarak ABD\u2019nin muhtemel bir geri \u00e7ekilmesinden yararlanmaya haz\u0131r. Baz\u0131 raporlar\u0131 g\u00f6re, Devrim Muhaf\u0131zlar\u0131 Komutan\u0131 “Hac\u0131 Mehdi, Tahran’\u0131n Deyrizor’daki operasyonlar\u0131ndan sorumlu ve aktif bir \u015fekilde a\u015firetlerden asker dev\u015firiyor.”[xii]<\/a><\/p>\n Bunlarla birlikte, ABD’nin PYD\/SDG ile Esed rejimi aras\u0131nda bir anla\u015fmaya[xiii]<\/a> var\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan Suriye’den \u00e7ekilece\u011fi iddia edilse de K\u00fcrt taraf\u0131n\u0131n \u015fu ana kadar yapt\u0131klar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamalar bu durumun aksini g\u00f6steriyor. SDG komutan\u0131 Mazlum Abdi, ABD’nin kendisine olas\u0131 bir \u00e7ekilme durumunda kendilerini korumalar\u0131 i\u00e7in \u015eam’la bir kanal a\u00e7mas\u0131n\u0131 tavsiye ettikleri iddias\u0131n\u0131 reddetti. \u00dcstelik Amerikal\u0131 yetkililerden, ABD’nin Suriye’den \u00e7ekilmesinin masada olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131na dair ‘net g\u00fcvenceler’[xiv]<\/a> ald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ileri s\u00fcrd\u00fc. Mart ay\u0131 ba\u015flar\u0131nda CENTCOM Komutan\u0131 General Michael Erik Kurilla, Ortado\u011fu\u2019daki g\u00fcvenlik durumunu do\u011frudan g\u00f6zlemlemek[xv]<\/a> ve sahadaki ortaklar\u0131yla g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmek \u00fczere b\u00f6lgesel gezisinin bir par\u00e7as\u0131 olarak Kuzeydo\u011fu Suriye’yi ziyaret etti. Kurilla ayr\u0131ca I\u015e\u0130D mensubu mahkumlar\u0131n\u0131n ailelerinin tutuldu\u011fu Roj ve Hol kamplar\u0131n\u0131 da ziyaret etti.<\/p>\n ABD’nin bug\u00fcne kadar SDG\/PYD ile Esed rejimi aras\u0131nda bir uzla\u015f\u0131ya var\u0131lmas\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 da belirtmekte fayda var. \u00dcstelik ABD, Esed rejiminin yerel, b\u00f6lgesel ve uluslararas\u0131 d\u00fczeyde me\u015frula\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131na resmi olarak kar\u015f\u0131 \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. \u00d6rne\u011fin yak\u0131n zamanda ABD Temsilciler Meclisi, ABD’nin Esed rejimiyle normalle\u015fmesini engelleyen bir yasa tasar\u0131s\u0131n\u0131[xvi]<\/a> kabul etti. Tasar\u0131 ayn\u0131 zamanda Suriye\u2019ye uygulanan Sezar yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131[xvii]<\/a> da uzat\u0131yor.<\/p>\n ABD’de b\u00f6ylesi bir durum varken, Washington’un Esed’e daha fazla me\u015fruiyet kazand\u0131racak ve Suriye’deki m\u00fcttefiklerini g\u00fc\u00e7lendirecek bir hamle olan \u00e7ekilme karar\u0131n\u0131 al\u0131p almayaca\u011f\u0131 net de\u011fil. ABD’nin yak\u0131n zamanda Suriye rejimi lideri Be\u015f\u015far Esed’e y\u00f6nelik tavr\u0131n\u0131 de\u011fi\u015ftirmeye karar verip vermedi\u011fi, e\u011fer de\u011fi\u015ftirdi ise de bu karara tam olarak neyin yol a\u00e7t\u0131\u011f\u0131 hen\u00fcz belli de\u011fil. Ayr\u0131ca \u015fu ana kadarki Suriye politikas\u0131n\u0131n gidi\u015fat\u0131n\u0131 de\u011fi\u015ftirmek, Washington’un Suriye politikas\u0131n\u0131n iflas\u0131n\u0131n ikrar\u0131 olman\u0131n yan\u0131nda, Rusya ile \u0130ran’\u0131n Suriye\u2019deki tutumlar\u0131n\u0131n do\u011fru oldu\u011funun \u00fcst\u00fc kapal\u0131 bir \u015fekilde kabul edilmesi anlam\u0131na da gelecektir. Washington en az\u0131ndan \u015fimdilik b\u00f6yle bir duruma s\u00fcr\u00fcklenmekten ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131yor gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n Ayn\u0131 zamanda ABD’nin Suriye’deki ana m\u00fcttefiki olan SDG’nin komutan\u0131 Mazlum Abdi, son zamanlarda kontrolleri alt\u0131ndaki b\u00f6lgelerin ABD ile \u0130ran aras\u0131nda bir sava\u015f alan\u0131na[xviii]<\/a> d\u00f6nmesini istemediklerini s\u00f6yledi. Ne var ki, SDG kontrol\u00fcndeki[xix]<\/a> b\u00f6lgeler \u015fimdiden \u0130ran destekli milislerin hedefi haline gelmi\u015f durumda. SDG, \u0130ran destekli milislerin bir sald\u0131r\u0131s\u0131nda alt\u0131 \u00fcyesini bile kaybetti. Tahran, Suriye’de \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131n ba\u015flamas\u0131ndan bu yana n\u00fcfuzunu giderek art\u0131rd\u0131. ABD’nin Suriye’den olas\u0131 bir \u00e7ekilmesi-Suriye krizinin a\u011f\u0131r toplar\u0131ndan olan T\u00fcrkiye ile koordineli bir \u015fekilde yap\u0131lmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 takdirde-ba\u015fta \u0130ran, ard\u0131ndan da Rusya’n\u0131n Suriye\u2019deki n\u00fcfuzunu art\u0131rmas\u0131na sebebiyet verecektir. ABD, Suriye’den (koordinesiz \u00e7ekildi\u011fi takdirde) \u00fclkedeki g\u00fc\u00e7 dengesinin Esed’in m\u00fcttefikleri lehine ve T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin aleyhine de\u011fi\u015fmesi \u00e7ok muhtemel. Hele ki ABD’nin iddia edildi\u011fi gibi SDG\/PYD’yi Esed rejimiyle bir uzla\u015f\u0131ya zorlamas\u0131 ve \u015eam’\u0131n da SDG ve PYD-kontrol\u00fcndeki \u00d6zerk Y\u00f6netim\u2019e anayasal stat\u00fc vermesi durumunda-ki bu mevcut konjonkt\u00fcrde pek olas\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcnm\u00fcyor-Ankara b\u00f6ylesi bir vaziyetten derece rahats\u0131z olacakt\u0131r. PYD\/SDG taraf\u0131n\u0131n ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz y\u0131llarda Esed rejimiyle bir\u00e7ok g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmesi[xx]<\/a> oldu.<\/p>\n Ancak iki taraf aras\u0131ndaki m\u00fczakereler sonu\u00e7suz kald\u0131 ve o zamandan bu yana ciddi bir geli\u015fme ya\u015fanmad\u0131. \u00dcstelik Esed rejimi Arap d\u00fcnyas\u0131nda daha fazla me\u015fruiyet kazand\u0131 ve \u015fu an SDG\/PYD ile herhangi bir m\u00fczakere kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda elinin g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Bu durum da, en az\u0131ndan yak\u0131n gelecekte SDG ile rejim aras\u0131nda bir anla\u015fma yap\u0131lmas\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 azalt\u0131yor.<\/p>\n Olas\u0131 bir koordinesiz ve ani geri \u00e7ekilme senaryosunda \u015f\u00fcphesiz Esed rejimi ve m\u00fcttefikleri, Suriye muhalefetinin kontrol\u00fcndeki b\u00f6lgelere sald\u0131rma konusunda daha da cesaretlenecektir. 2020 y\u0131l\u0131 ba\u015f\u0131ndan bu yana Suriye’deki kontrol b\u00f6lgelerinin s\u0131n\u0131rlar\u0131 de\u011fi\u015fmedi. Sahadaki mevcut g\u00fc\u00e7 dengesi, \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n taraf\u0131 olan akt\u00f6rlerin rakiplerine sald\u0131rmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7ok maliyetli hale getiriyor. ABD’nin Suriye\u2019den geri \u00e7ekilmesi durumunda bu g\u00fc\u00e7 dengesi bozulacak ve Esed rejimi ile m\u00fcttefikleri, Suriye muhalefetinin kontrol\u00fcndeki b\u00f6lgelere sald\u0131rma konusunda daha motive hale gelecekler. Bu senaryoda Ankara destekli Suriye Milli Ordusu kontrol\u00fcndeki b\u00f6lgeler ve 4 milyondan fazla insana ev sahipli\u011fi yapan \u0130dlib b\u00fcy\u00fck bir tehlike alt\u0131na girecek. Gazze trajedisinin devam etti\u011fi bir d\u00f6nemde Suriyeli muhaliflerin kontrol\u00fcndeki b\u00f6lgelere olas\u0131 bir rejim-m\u00fcttefik sald\u0131r\u0131s\u0131 yeni bir insani felakete yol a\u00e7abilir. B\u00f6yle bir durumda T\u00fcrkiye’ye yeni bir m\u00fclteci ak\u0131n\u0131 uzak bir senaryo olmayacakt\u0131r. Ortaya \u00e7\u0131kabilecek b\u00f6yle bir senaryo sadece Ankara’y\u0131 de\u011fil, Avrupa \u00fclkelerini de etkileyecektir.<\/p>\n Sonu\u00e7<\/strong><\/p>\n K\u0131sacas\u0131, koordinasyonsuz ve ani bir geri \u00e7ekilme, \u015f\u00fcphesiz Ankara’y\u0131 zor bir duruma sokacakt\u0131r. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla Ankara-Washington ili\u015fkilerinin d\u00fczelmeye ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir d\u00f6nemde ABD’nin b\u00f6ylesine mant\u0131ks\u0131z bir ad\u0131m at\u0131p atmayaca\u011f\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fck bir soru i\u015fareti.<\/p>\n Ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz g\u00fcnlerde T\u00fcrkiye D\u0131\u015fi\u015fleri Bakan\u0131 Hakan Fidan, ABD-T\u00fcrkiye Stratejik Mekanizma toplant\u0131lar\u0131na kat\u0131lmak \u00fczere ABD’li yetkililerin daveti \u00fczerine heyetiyle birlikte Washington’u ziyaret etmi\u015fti. Milli \u0130stihbarat Ba\u015fkan\u0131 \u0130brahim Kal\u0131n da mevkida\u015f\u0131 William Burns ile g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmek \u00fczere ABD\u2019deydi.[xxi]<\/a> Blinken-Fidan g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmesinin ard\u0131ndan olumlu bir ortak[xxii]<\/a> a\u00e7\u0131klama yay\u0131mland\u0131.<\/p>\n Taraflar ter\u00f6rle m\u00fccadelede ortak kararl\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 vurgulad\u0131. Ayr\u0131ca T\u00fcrkiye’nin \u0130sve\u00e7’in NATO’ya kat\u0131l\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 onaylamas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan T\u00fcrkiye\u2019ye F-16\u2019a sat\u0131\u015f\u0131nda ya\u015fanan sorunlar\u0131n ortadan kalkmas\u0131 gibi kritik olumlu geli\u015fmeler de ya\u015fand\u0131. Ayr\u0131ca ABD, T\u00fcrkiye’nin F-35 program\u0131na d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fc konusunda da kap\u0131y\u0131 tamamen kapatm\u0131\u015f de\u011fil. Bunlar\u0131n yan\u0131nda iki taraf, Ankara ile Washington aras\u0131nda 30 milyar dolar civar\u0131nda seyreden ticaret hacminin 100 milyar dolara \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 istiyor.[xxiii]<\/a><\/p>\n Bu \u00f6nemli konularda ili\u015fkilerin h\u0131zla geli\u015fti\u011fi bir d\u00f6nemde Washington’un, en az\u0131ndan yak\u0131n bir zaman diliminde hem Washington’a hem de Ankara’ya zarar verecek koordinasyonsuz ve zamans\u0131z bir geri \u00e7ekilmeye giri\u015fmesi pek m\u00fcmk\u00fcn g\u00f6r\u00fcnm\u00fcyor. Ancak ABD’de 2024 se\u00e7imlerini \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclemeyen Donald Trump kazan\u0131rsa, koordinasyondan ve zamandan ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z olarak \u00e7ekilme senaryosu daha ger\u00e7ek\u00e7i bir hale gelebilir. Trump, ABD askerlerinin, Trump’\u0131n yaln\u0131zca ‘\u00f6l\u00fcm ve kum’ g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc Irak ve\/veya Suriye’den \u00e7ekilmesi emrini verebilir.[xxiv]<\/a> Irak’\u0131n Suriye’deki ABD birliklerinin ana lojistik merkezi oldu\u011funu belirtmekte de fayda var. Irak’tan \u00e7ekilme Suriye’deki durumu da \u015f\u00fcphesiz ki etkileyecektir. Suriye’den muhtemel bir geri \u00e7ekilme karar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda CENTCOM \u015f\u00fcphesiz direnmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015facakt\u0131r. Ancak ne \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde ve ne zamana kadar direnebilece\u011fi ba\u015fka bir konu. Trump, askerlerini Suriye’den \u00e7ekme niyetini a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, d\u00f6nemin ABD Savunma Bakan\u0131 James Mattis, 2018 sonlar\u0131nda bu karara kat\u0131lmamas\u0131 nedeniyle g\u00f6revinden istifa etmi\u015fti.[xxv]<\/a><\/p>\n ABD askerlerinin Suriye’den k\u0131smi \u00e7ekilmesi, T\u00fcrkiye’nin 2019’da Bar\u0131\u015f P\u0131nar\u0131 Harekat\u0131’n\u0131n yolunu a\u00e7m\u0131\u015ft\u0131.[xxvi]<\/a> ABD’nin Suriye’den koordineli bir \u015fekilde \u00e7ekilmesi, t\u0131pk\u0131 2019’da oldu\u011fu gibi T\u00fcrkiye’nin Suriye’de yeni bir operasyon d\u00fczenlemesine de yol a\u00e7abilir. T\u00fcrkiye, aylard\u0131r Suriye’deki PKK\/SDG ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 isimlere insans\u0131z hava arac\u0131 sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131 d\u00fczenliyor. Ayr\u0131ca SDG kontrol\u00fcndeki altyap\u0131 ve PYD kontrol\u00fcndeki \u00d6zerk Y\u00f6netim\u2019in gelir kaynaklar\u0131n\u0131[xxvii]<\/a> kurutmak amac\u0131yla petrol sahalar\u0131n\u0131 hedef al\u0131yor. ABD’nin Irak ve Suriye’den \u00e7ekilmesi durumunda yukar\u0131da belirtilen senaryolardan hangisinin ger\u00e7ekle\u015fece\u011fini ancak zaman g\u00f6sterecek. \u015eimdilik bir geri \u00e7ekilme karar\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcnde pek \u00e7ok belirsizlik yat\u0131yor. ABD’de bu sene ger\u00e7ekle\u015fecek ba\u015fkanl\u0131k se\u00e7imi sonu\u00e7lar\u0131 muhtemel bir geri \u00e7ekilme karar\u0131nda belirleyici olacak. Ancak bahse konu se\u00e7imlere neredeyse bir y\u0131l var. Bu d\u00f6nem, istikrars\u0131z Ortado\u011fu’da son derece uzun ve se\u00e7imlere kadar geri \u00e7ekilme karar\u0131n\u0131 etkilemesi muhtemel pek \u00e7ok yeni b\u00f6lgesel ve uluslararas\u0131 dinamik ortaya \u00e7\u0131kabilir.<\/p>\n Referanslar<\/b><\/p>\n [i]<\/a> Bkz. https:\/\/twitter.com\/IraqiPMO\/status\/1751207722911928460<\/a><\/p>\n [ii]<\/a> Margaret Coker and Falih Hassan, Iraq Prime Minister Declares Victory Over ISIS, New York Times, 9 Aral\u0131k 2017, https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2017\/12\/09\/world\/middleeast\/iraq-isis-haider-al-abadi.html<\/a><\/p>\n [iii]<\/a> Americans in Iraq will continue to be attacked, despite \u2018non-combat\u2019 role, Concerned Veterans for America, 25 Ocak 2022, https:\/\/cv4a.org\/the-overwatch\/americans-in-iraq-continue-to-be-attacked-despite-non-combat-role\/<\/a><\/p>\n [iv]<\/a> Delay in paying salaries takes toll on Erbil market, Rudaw, 5 Ekim 2023, https:\/\/www.rudaw.net\/english\/kurdistan\/051020231<\/a><\/p>\n [v]<\/a> Amberin Zaman, In letter to Biden, Barzani warns of Iraqi Kurdistan’s collapse, urges mediation, Al Monitor, 12 Eyl\u00fcl 2023, https:\/\/www.al-monitor.com\/originals\/2023\/09\/letter-biden-barzani-warns-iraqi-kurdistans-collapse-urges-mediation<\/a><\/p>\n [vi]<\/a> Prime Minister Masrour Barzani Embarks on Official Visit to Washington, Kurdistan Regional Government, 25 \u015eubat 2024, https:\/\/gov.krd\/english\/government\/the-prime-minister\/activities\/posts\/2024\/february\/prime-minister-masrour-barzani-embarks-on-official-visit-to-washington\/<\/a><\/p>\n [vii]<\/a> Mehmet Emin Cengiz, The Future of the Iranian-Turkish Relationship: A Contained Geopolitical Rivalry or A Possible Escalation Between Ankara and Tehran?, Al Sharq Strategic Research, 20 Eyl\u00fcl 2022, https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/2022\/09\/20\/iranian-turkish-relationship\/<\/a><\/p>\n [viii]<\/a> Gal Beckerman, \u2018The Middle East Region Is Quieter Today Than It Has Been in Two Decades\u2019, The Atlantic, 7 Ekim 2023, https:\/\/www.theatlantic.com\/international\/archive\/2023\/10\/israel-war-middle-east-jake-sullivan\/675580\/<\/a><\/p>\n [ix]<\/a> The Gaza Crisis and Emerging Multipolar World, Al Sharq Strategic Research, 3 Kas\u0131m 2023, https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/2023\/11\/03\/the-gaza-crisis-and-emerging-multipolar-world\/<\/a><\/p>\n [x]<\/a> US Troops in Middle East: What Are They Doing and Where?, Voice of America (VOA), 3 \u015eubat 2024, https:\/\/www.voanews.com\/a\/us-troops-in-middle-east-what-are-they-doing-and-where-\/7469452.html<\/a><\/p>\n [xi]<\/a> \u00d6mer \u00d6zkizilcik, Here\u2019s what an uncoordinated US withdrawal from Syria would look like. It\u2019s bad for many partners, but especially Turkey, Atlantic Council, 20 \u015eubat 2024, https:\/\/www.atlanticcouncil.org\/blogs\/menasource\/syria-withdrawal-turkey-us-hts\/<\/a><\/p>\n [xii]<\/a> Sean Mathews, Kurdish groups gripped by fear as they brace for a US pullout from northeast Syria, Middle East Eye, 7 Mart 2024, https:\/\/www.middleeasteye.net\/news\/kurds-fear-as-they-brace-us-pullout-northern-syria<\/a><\/p>\n [xiii]<\/a>Amberin Zaman, Pentagon floats plan for its Syrian Kurd allies to partner with Assad against ISIS, Al Monitor, 22 Ocak 2024, https:\/\/www.al-monitor.com\/originals\/2024\/01\/pentagon-floats-plan-its-syrian-kurd-allies-partner-assad-against-isis<\/a><\/p>\n [xiv]<\/a> Elie Youssef, SDF Commander: No Withdrawal of US Forces from Syria, Asharq Al-Awsat, 10 \u015eubat 2024, https:\/\/english.aawsat.com\/arab-world\/4845366-sdf-commander-no-withdrawal-us-forces-syria<\/a><\/p>\n [xv]<\/a>CENTCOM commander visits US bases in Syria, Enab Baladi, 4 Mart 2024, https:\/\/english.enabbaladi.net\/archives\/2024\/03\/centcom-commander-visits-us-bases-in-syria\/<\/a><\/p>\n [xvi]<\/a> US lawmakers pass anti-Assad Syria Anti-Normalisation Act, The New Arab, 15 \u015eubat 2024, https:\/\/www.newarab.com\/news\/us-lawmakers-pass-anti-assad-syria-anti-normalisation-act<\/a><\/p>\n [xvii]<\/a> A.g.e.<\/p>\n [xviii]<\/a> Syria Today \u2013 SDF Leader Says Syria Shouldn\u2019t Become US-Iran Battleground; UNGA Asks Israel to Withdraw From Golan, The Syrian Observer, 30 Kas\u0131m 2023, https:\/\/syrianobserver.com\/news\/86459\/syria-today-sdf-leader-says-syria-shouldnt-become-us-iran-battleground-unga-asks-israel-to-withdraw-from-golan.html<\/a><\/p>\n [xix]<\/a> Beatrice Farhat, 6 Kurdish SDF forces killed in Iran-linked attack on Syria base housing US troops, Al Monitor, 5 \u015eubat 2024, https:\/\/www.al-monitor.com\/originals\/2024\/02\/6-kurdish-sdf-forces-killed-iran-linked-attack-syria-base-housing-us-troops<\/a><\/p>\n [xx]<\/a> Mehmet Emin Cengiz and Bedir Mulla Rashid, Thorny Challenges for the PYD-led Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria, Al Sharq Strategic Research, 20 Haziran 2020, https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/2020\/06\/20\/north-and-east-syria\/<\/a><\/p>\n <\/p>\n [xxi]<\/a> Aylin Dal, Turkish intelligence chief to hold talks in US, Anadolu Agency, 5 Mart 2024, https:\/\/www.aa.com.tr\/en\/americas\/turkish-intelligence-chief-to-hold-talks-in-us\/3155362<\/a><\/p>\n [xxii]<\/a> Joint Statement on the U.S.-T\u00fcrkiye Strategic Mechanism, US Embassy&Consulates in T\u00fcrkiye, 9 Mart 2024, https:\/\/tr.usembassy.gov\/joint-statement-on-the-u-s-turkiye-strategic-mechanism-2\/<\/a><\/p>\n [xxiii]<\/a> Fatma Eda Top\u00e7u, T\u00fcrkiye, US have entered \u2018new era\u2019 in trade relations: Business council head, Anadolu Agency, 8 Eyl\u00fcl 2023, https:\/\/www.aa.com.tr\/en\/turkiye\/turkiye-us-have-entered-new-era-in-trade-relations-business-council-head\/2986349<\/a><\/p>\n [xxiv]<\/a> Richard Hall, Trump says Syria is \u2018sand and death\u2019 in defence of troop withdrawal, The Independent, 3 Ocak 2019, https:\/\/www.independent.co.uk\/news\/world\/middle-east\/trump-syria-troop-withdrawal-us-sand-death-cabinet-meeting-military-a8709131.html<\/a><\/p>\n [xxv]<\/a> Veronica Rocha and Sophie Tatum, Defense Secretary James Mattis resigns, CNN, 20 Aral\u0131k 2018, https:\/\/edition.cnn.com\/politics\/live-news\/james-mattis-resigns\/index.html<\/a><\/p>\n [xxvi]<\/a> Matthew Cebul, Operation \u2018\u2018Peace Spring\u2019\u2019 and U.S. Strategy in Syria, Foreign Policy Research Institute, 11 Ekim 2019, https:\/\/www.fpri.org\/article\/2019\/10\/operation-peace-spring-and-u-s-strategy-in-syria\/<\/a><\/p>\n [xxvii]<\/a> Mehmet Emin Cengiz, Syria in 2024: Return to the Regional Focus, Al Sharq Strategic Research, 17 Ocak 2024, https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/2024\/01\/17\/syria-in-2024-return-to-the-regional-focus\/<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div> Aylard\u0131r Ortado\u011fu siyasetinin odak noktas\u0131nda yer alan, dahas\u0131 bir insanl\u0131k trajedisine d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fen vahim Gazze krizinin ortas\u0131nda ve \u0130ran destekli milislerin Suriye ve Irak’taki ABD \u00fcslerine d\u00fczenledi\u011fi d\u00fczinelerce sald\u0131r\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan, bir s\u00fcredir ABD’nin bahse konu iki \u00fclkeden \u00e7ekilece\u011fi y\u00f6n\u00fcnde s\u00f6ylentiler yeniden dola\u015f\u0131mda<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":57,"featured_media":37660,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","ngg_post_thumbnail":0},"categories":[361],"tags":[],"asf_pub_issue":[10319],"asf_pub_region":[10321,17580,17588],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/37678"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/57"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=37678"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/37678\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":37688,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/37678\/revisions\/37688"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/37660"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=37678"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=37678"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=37678"},{"taxonomy":"asf_pub_issue","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/asf_pub_issue?post=37678"},{"taxonomy":"asf_pub_region","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/asf_pub_region?post=37678"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}