{"id":37815,"date":"2024-08-14T16:09:17","date_gmt":"2024-08-14T13:09:17","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/2024\/09\/24\/sudan-icin-baris-yok-savas-kitlik-ve-parcalanma\/"},"modified":"2024-09-24T16:09:50","modified_gmt":"2024-09-24T13:09:50","slug":"sudan-icin-baris-yok-savas-kitlik-ve-parcalanma","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/2024\/08\/14\/sudan-icin-baris-yok-savas-kitlik-ve-parcalanma\/","title":{"rendered":"Sudan i\u00e7in Bar\u0131\u015f Yok: Sava\u015f, K\u0131tl\u0131k ve Par\u00e7alanma"},"content":{"rendered":"

(Bu metin \u0130ngilizce orijinal versiyonundan Al Sharq Stratejik Ara\u015ft\u0131rma stajyeri Fat\u0131ma Zehra \u0130nce taraf\u0131ndan terc\u00fcme edilmi\u015ftir.)<\/em><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

Ge\u00e7en y\u0131l Nisan ay\u0131nda, 2019\u2019da \u00d6mer El-Be\u015fir rejiminin d\u00fc\u015fmesinin ard\u0131ndan olu\u015fturulan, askeri ve sivil kanatlardan meydana gelen Ge\u00e7ici Egemenlik Konseyi (GEK) i\u00e7indeki siyasi \u00e7eki\u015fmeler, Sudan Ordusu ile H\u0131zl\u0131 Destek Kuvvetleri (HDK) aras\u0131nda silahl\u0131 \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalara yol a\u00e7t\u0131. Yabanc\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lerin etkileri ve k\u0131\u015fk\u0131rtmalar\u0131, GEK\u2019teki siyasi \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmay\u0131 Sudan\u2019\u0131n \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc i\u00e7 sava\u015f\u0131na d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcrd\u00fc. \u015eimdi Sudan, korkun\u00e7 bir insani felakete yol a\u00e7an y\u0131k\u0131c\u0131 bir \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma ile kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya olmakla beraber tam bir \u00e7\u00f6k\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn e\u015fi\u011fine gelmi\u015f durumda. Hen\u00fcz bir \u00e7\u00f6k\u00fc\u015f meydana gelmemesinin nedeniyse \u00e7o\u011fu Sudanl\u0131 aras\u0131nda var olan sosyal dayan\u0131\u015fma ruhudur.<\/p>\n

Devlet ve ordunun, 2013 y\u0131l\u0131nda \u00d6mer El-Be\u015fir rejimi taraf\u0131ndan Darfur ve G\u00fcney Kordofan\u2019daki b\u00f6lgesel huzursuzluklar\u0131 bast\u0131rmak amac\u0131yla kurulmu\u015f resmi bir paramiliter g\u00fc\u00e7 olan HDK\u2019n\u0131n sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 durdurmakta yetersiz kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fclmektedir. Ancak, sonu\u00e7 olarak silah\u0131n\u0131 sahibi olan Sudan devletine \u00e7evirmi\u015f durumda. Genellikle Cancavid olarak bilinen HDK, 2003 y\u0131l\u0131nda Sudan\u2019\u0131n Darfur b\u00f6lgesinde ba\u015flayan kabile \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131 nedeniyle, g\u00fcvenlik yap\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n bir par\u00e7as\u0131 haline gelmi\u015ftir. Ge\u00e7en y\u0131l ba\u015flayan \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalara kadar, Sudan ordusunun yasal bir par\u00e7as\u0131 olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyordu.<\/p>\n

Sudan, 1956\u2019da ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 kazand\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan beri bir\u00e7ok \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma ve insani kriz ya\u015fad\u0131. Birinci i\u00e7 sava\u015f (1955-1969) ve ikinci i\u00e7 sava\u015fa (1983-2005) ek olarak 2003 y\u0131l\u0131ndan bu zamana devam eden Darfur Krizi milyonlarca insan\u0131n hayat\u0131n\u0131 kaybetmesine ve zorunlu g\u00f6\u00e7lere neden olmu\u015ftur. 1972-1983<\/a> d\u00f6nemindeki bar\u0131\u015f s\u00fcreci haricinde, b\u00f6lgesel \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar ve ac\u0131lar ya\u015fanmaya devam etmi\u015ftir. Fakat bu sefer Sudan hem merkezde hem de \u00e7evrede daha y\u0131k\u0131c\u0131 bir krize tan\u0131kl\u0131k ediyor.<\/p>\n

D\u00fcnyadaki En K\u00f6t\u00fc \u0130nsani Kriz<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u00dc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc i\u00e7 sava\u015f\u0131n ba\u015flamas\u0131ndan bu yana 10 milyondan fazla Sudanl\u0131 yerinden oldu. 26 milyon Sudanl\u0131 g\u0131da bulmakta<\/a> zorlan\u0131yor ve bu durum n\u00fcfusun yar\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n a\u00e7l\u0131k tehlikesi ile kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya oldu\u011fu anlam\u0131na geliyor. Birle\u015fmi\u015f Milletler\u2019e g\u00f6re, \u00fclke d\u00fcnyadaki en k\u00f6t\u00fc insani krizlerden birine tan\u0131kl\u0131k ediyor. Sermaye eksikli\u011fi ve insani duruma kar\u015f\u0131 fark\u0131ndal\u0131\u011f\u0131n azl\u0131\u011f\u0131, Sudanl\u0131lar i\u00e7in durumu daha k\u00f6t\u00fc hale getiriyor. Ayr\u0131ca, maalesef, Sudan\u2019daki felaket olarak nitelendirilen bu insani durum, Gazze krizi nedeniyle yeterince g\u00fcndeme getirilmiyor.<\/p>\n

Sudanl\u0131 insanlar, yal\u0131n ayak g\u00fcvenli bir yer aray\u0131\u015f\u0131 i\u00e7erisindeler. Devlet kurumlar\u0131n\u0131n Port Sudan ve \u00e7evresi d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda i\u015flevselli\u011finden bahsetmek m\u00fcmk\u00fcn de\u011fil. Ba\u015fkent Hartum, iki ordu taraf\u0131ndan k\u0131smen kontrol\u00fc sa\u011fland\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in gizemini koruyor. Her bir ordu, mevcut insani felaketten bir di\u011ferini sorumlu tutuyor.<\/p>\n

Tar\u0131m, Sudan\u2019daki ana ekonomik faaliyet olsa da son sald\u0131r\u0131lar tar\u0131m alanlar\u0131n\u0131 potansiyel olarak etkiledi. El Cezire\u2019deki temel tar\u0131m arazisi, \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma ve yerinden edilme sebebiyle \u00fcretimde d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f ya\u015f\u0131yor. El Cezire ve Al Menagil \u00c7ift\u00e7iler Birli\u011fi\u2019ne g\u00f6re, tar\u0131msal faaliyetler %72 oran\u0131nda \u00fclke genelinde g\u0131da k\u0131tl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131racak dramatik bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f<\/a> g\u00f6steriyor. \u00dcretimdeki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn devam\u0131 halinde, \u00e7ift\u00e7ilerin yerinden edilmesinin k\u0131tl\u0131\u011fa sebep olaca\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcnde korkular bulunuyor. Tar\u0131m sekt\u00f6r\u00fcndeki zararlar\u0131n do\u011frudan yans\u0131mas\u0131 fiyat art\u0131\u015flar\u0131nda olacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n

Sudanl\u0131 ailelerin par\u00e7alanmas\u0131, sava\u015f\u0131n en k\u00f6t\u00fc sonu\u00e7lar\u0131ndan biri olabilir. G\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fczde, aileler g\u00fcvenlik aray\u0131\u015f\u0131 i\u00e7erisinde sald\u0131r\u0131lardan ka\u00e7arak, bilinmeyen yerlere g\u00f6\u00e7 ediyor. E\u011fer daha \u00f6nce \u00c7ad, G\u00fcney Sudan, Etiyopya ve M\u0131s\u0131r\u2019da m\u00fclteci olmam\u0131\u015flarsa, terk edilen okullarda ve IDP (\u00dclke i\u00e7inde yerinden edilmi\u015f insanlar) kamplar\u0131nda bar\u0131nak ar\u0131yorlar. Bu hareketlilik, aileler i\u00e7in par\u00e7alanma yaratmakla beraber \u00e7aresiz \u015fartlar i\u00e7erisinde birbirleriyle ba\u011flant\u0131 kurmalar\u0131n\u0131 zorla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

Darfur b\u00f6lgesinde, HDK, Masalitlere kar\u015f\u0131 bir etnik temizlik ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirdi ve binlerce yerel sakini \u00c7ad s\u0131n\u0131r\u0131 boyunca s\u00fcrd\u00fc. Darfur\u2019un be\u015f eyaletinden biri olan El-Fa\u015fir, HDK sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131na direnmeye devam etti. Zemzem m\u00fclteci kamp\u0131, \u00f6nemli say\u0131da yerinden edilmi\u015f ki\u015fiye ev sahipli\u011fi yaparken, b\u00f6lgedeki di\u011fer kamplar \u015fimdiden a\u00e7l\u0131k ve yetersiz beslenmeden nedeniyle \u00e7ocuk \u00f6l\u00fcmlerine sahne olmaya ba\u015flad\u0131.<\/p>\n

\u00dclke genelindeki sa\u011fl\u0131k tesislerinin \u00e7o\u011fu, HDK\u2019n\u0131n hastaneleri bombalamas\u0131ndan<\/a> \u00f6t\u00fcr\u00fc i\u015flevini yitirmi\u015f durumda bulunuyor. Bir paramiliter grup, hastaneleri \u00fcs olarak kullan\u0131yor. Ancak, sald\u0131r\u0131lar sadece hastanelerle s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kalmay\u0131p; HDK\u2019n\u0131n sivillere y\u00f6nelik zul\u00fcmleri aras\u0131nda tecav\u00fcz, zorla evlendirme, ya\u011fmalama ve etnik temizlik de yer al\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

Bu insan kaynakl\u0131 kriz, Sudanl\u0131 gen\u00e7ler i\u00e7in hi\u00e7 umut b\u0131rakmam\u0131\u015f vaziyette. Okullar ve \u00fcniversiteler kapal\u0131 kalmaya devam etmekte ve e\u011fitime d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f i\u00e7in herhangi bir i\u015faret bulunmamaktad\u0131r. Silahl\u0131 \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar, Sudanl\u0131 gen\u00e7 nesilleri hayatta kalmalar\u0131 i\u00e7in bir tarafa dahil olup silah almaya zorlayarak sava\u015f\u0131n i\u00e7erisine \u00e7ekmektedir.<\/p>\n

Sonu\u00e7 olarak, \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma derinle\u015ftik\u00e7e, Sudanl\u0131lar d\u0131\u015f yard\u0131mlara daha \u00e7ok ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131 h\u00e2le geliyor. Ancak, sermaye eksikli\u011fi ve g\u00fcvensizlik, insani yard\u0131mlar\u0131n Sudan\u2019da sava\u015ftan etkilenen b\u00f6lgelere ula\u015fmas\u0131 noktas\u0131nda ciddi zorluklar \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor. Yard\u0131m kurumlar\u0131n\u0131n, insani yard\u0131ma muhta\u00e7 Sudanl\u0131lara ula\u015fmalar\u0131 i\u00e7in kullanabilecekleri g\u00fcvenli bir koridor hen\u00fcz bulunmamaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n

Sudan\u2019\u0131n Gelece\u011fi D\u0131\u015f G\u00fc\u00e7ler Taraf\u0131ndan \u00c7al\u0131nd\u0131<\/strong><\/p>\n

Sudan\u2019da olan biteni izole bir sorun olarak de\u011ferlendirmek de zor. Hem b\u00f6lgesel hem de k\u00fcresel yabanc\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7ler Sudan \u00fczerinde belirli bir etkiye sahip. Ancak, d\u0131\u015f akt\u00f6rler genellikle, Sudan\u2019daki jeopolitik \u00e7\u0131karlar\u0131n\u0131 korumak amac\u0131yla \u00fclkeyi istikrars\u0131zla\u015ft\u0131rarak ve felaketi derinle\u015ftirerek olumsuz bir rol oynuyor. Bu y\u00fczden, baz\u0131lar\u0131 Sudan\u2019\u0131n bug\u00fcn i\u00e7erisinde bulundu\u011fu durumu bir i\u00e7 sava\u015f olarak de\u011fil, rakip taraflar aras\u0131ndaki proksi sava\u015f\u0131 olarak adland\u0131r\u0131yor. D\u0131\u015f g\u00fc\u00e7lerin rol\u00fc g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcne al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, bu abart\u0131 olarak g\u00f6r\u00fclmeyebilir.<\/p>\n

Yabanc\u0131 \u00fclkeler aras\u0131nda, Birle\u015fik Arap Emirlikleri\u2019nin (BAE) HDK\u2019y\u0131 silahland\u0131rarak Sudan\u2019daki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmay\u0131 alevlendirme rol\u00fc \u015fimdi daha net olsa da BAE\u2019nin Sudan\u2019daki sava\u015f\u0131 finanse etmesini durduracak herhangi bir mekanizma bulunmuyor. Sudan devlet yetkilileri, BAE\u2019yi HDK\u2019ya silah tedarik ederek \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmay\u0131 k\u00f6r\u00fcklemesi nedeniyle s\u00fcrekli olarak k\u0131n\u0131yor.  BM yetkilileri<\/a> de ayr\u0131ca, BAE\u2019nin \u00c7ad \u00fczerinden HDK\u2019ya silah ve m\u00fchimmat g\u00f6nderdi\u011fi iddialar\u0131n\u0131 inand\u0131r\u0131c\u0131 buluyor.<\/p>\n

Sudan D\u0131\u015fi\u015fleri Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131\u2019n\u0131n yapm\u0131\u015f oldu\u011fu son a\u00e7\u0131klamada \u201cE\u011fer BAE ger\u00e7ekten Sudanl\u0131 vatanda\u015flar\u0131n kan\u0131 ve g\u00fcvenli\u011fi hakk\u0131nda endi\u015fe duyuyorsa, milis kuvvetlerine halk\u0131m\u0131z\u0131 \u00f6ld\u00fcrme ve onlar\u0131 g\u0131da ve yard\u0131mdan mahrum b\u0131rakmak i\u00e7in kullan\u0131lan silahlar\u0131 g\u00f6ndermeyi durdurmal\u0131d\u0131r. Ancak o zaman bar\u0131\u015f sa\u011flanacak ve insani ac\u0131 dindirilecektir<\/a>.\u201d  Dedi. Foreign Affairs Dergisi, BAE\u2019nin Sudan\u2019daki rol\u00fcn\u00fc gizli bir sava\u015f organizat\u00f6r\u00fc olarak tan\u0131mlad\u0131.<\/p>\n

BAE\u2019ye y\u00f6nelik iddialar olduk\u00e7a ciddidir. Fakat, ilgin\u00e7 bir \u015fekilde, Guardian<\/a> raporuna g\u00f6re, Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k D\u0131\u015fi\u015fleri Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 bu ele\u015ftirileri bast\u0131rmak amac\u0131yla Afrika diplomatlar\u0131 \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 yaratmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131yor. Ayr\u0131ca, Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k yetkilileri \u201cinsani sebepler\u201d nedeniyle HDK ile gizli g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeler<\/a> yapt\u0131. Bu durum hem Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k hem de BAE\u2019nin HDK faaliyetlerini me\u015frula\u015ft\u0131rma rol\u00fcn\u00fc \u00fcstlendi\u011fini g\u00f6stermektedir. Bu tuhaf ko\u015fullar alt\u0131nda, Sudan\u2019\u0131n gelece\u011finin yabanc\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7ler taraf\u0131ndan desteklenen ordular taraf\u0131ndan \u00e7al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcnde iddialarda bulunmak yanl\u0131\u015f de\u011fildir.<\/p>\n

Her iki sava\u015fan taraf da birbirlerinden faydalanmak amac\u0131yla d\u0131\u015f g\u00fc\u00e7lerin deste\u011fini ar\u0131yor. Sudan Silahl\u0131 Kuvvetleri komutanlar\u0131, BAE\u2019nin Sudan\u2019daki istikrars\u0131zla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131c\u0131 rol\u00fcn\u00fc s\u00fcrekli olarak k\u0131nayarak BAE\u2019nin rol\u00fcn\u00fc dengelemek i\u00e7in bir yol ar\u0131yorlar. Sudan ordusu, askeri destek i\u00e7in Rusya, M\u0131s\u0131r, \u0130ran veya T\u00fcrkiye ile ileti\u015fim kurmaktan \u00e7ekinmiyor.  Rusya, Port Sudan\u2019da bir deniz \u00fcss\u00fc kurma arzusuna sahipken, \u0130ran ve T\u00fcrkiye ise BAE ile y\u00fczle\u015fmekte pek istekli de\u011fil. Bir\u00e7ok krizle \u00e7evrili olan kom\u015fu M\u0131s\u0131r\u2019\u0131n, Sudan\u2019da oyun de\u011fi\u015ftirecek g\u00fc\u00e7te bir kapasitesi yoktur.<\/p>\n

Sudan Silahl\u0131 Kuvvetleri ve HDK, ABD ve Suudi Arabistan taraf\u0131ndan Riyad g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerinde \u00f6nerilen bar\u0131\u015f anla\u015fmas\u0131na hen\u00fcz ula\u015fmad\u0131. ABD, Riyad bar\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerinde herhangi bir bar\u0131\u015f anla\u015fmas\u0131na var\u0131lmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n fark\u0131na vard\u0131. Bu nedenle \u015fimdi, ABD yeni g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeleri \u0130svi\u00e7re\u2019ye y\u00f6nlendirme iste\u011fine sahip. Ancak Sudan ordusu, ABD m\u00fczakerecileri ile HDK\u2019n\u0131n me\u015fruiyeti ve temsiliyeti konusunda anla\u015fmaya varmadan Cenevre s\u00fcrecine kat\u0131lmaya isteksiz. E\u011fer bu durum devam ederse, Cenevre\u2019deki yeni bir anla\u015fma umudu zay\u0131f kalacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n

Yeni Balkanla\u015fma Riski<\/strong><\/p>\n

1956\u2019da ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 kazanmas\u0131ndan bu yana, Sudan; zay\u0131f kurumlar, etnik ve dini \u00e7e\u015fitlilik sebebiyle topraklar\u0131nda Balkanla\u015fma korkusu ya\u015famaktad\u0131r. Bilindi\u011fi \u00fczere, \u00fclke ABD\u2019nin destekledi\u011fi bir referandum sonras\u0131 g\u00fcney k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131 kaybetti. \u015eu an, milli orduya paralel bir silahl\u0131 grubun varl\u0131\u011f\u0131 Sudan i\u00e7in yeni bir Balkanla\u015fma riski olu\u015fturmaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n

Sudan ordusu, Sudan\u2019\u0131n \u00f6nemli bir k\u0131sm\u0131 \u00fczerindeki egemenli\u011fini kaybetmi\u015f durumda. HDK, Darfur b\u00f6lgesinin b\u00fcy\u00fck bir k\u0131sm\u0131nda, Hartum\u2019un baz\u0131 b\u00f6lgelerine ek olarak \u00fclkenin g\u00fcneydo\u011fusunda bask\u0131n bir g\u00fc\u00e7 haline gelmi\u015ftir. Ordu halen, Hartum\u2019un baz\u0131 b\u00f6l\u00fcmlerini, do\u011fudaki \u015fehirleri ve \u00fclkenin kuzeyini kontrol etmektedir. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k, Sudan\u2019\u0131n 18 eyaletinden 10\u2019unda \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar ya\u015fanmakta ve HDK, \u00fclke genelindeki 8 eyaleti istila etmi\u015f durumda.<\/p>\n

Toplamda 39 y\u0131l s\u00fcren (1955-1972) ve 1983-2005 y\u0131llar\u0131 aras\u0131nda ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen birinci ve ikinci i\u00e7 sava\u015f; Sudan\u2019da b\u00f6l\u00fcnmelere, b\u00fcy\u00fck bir can kayb\u0131na ve milyonlarca insan\u0131n g\u00f6\u00e7 etmesine neden oldu. G\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fczde, \u00fclke \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc bir i\u00e7 sava\u015fa tan\u0131kl\u0131k etmektedir ve \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n beklenenden daha uzun s\u00fcrece\u011fi g\u00f6stergeler taraf\u0131ndan ortaya konulmaktad\u0131r. \u00dclke yeni par\u00e7alanmalarla kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya. \u015eu ana kadar, Sudanl\u0131lar\u0131 ayakta tutan tek \u015fey sosyal dayan\u0131\u015fma ruhu oldu. 2019\u2019da eski rejimin sona ermesiyle birlikte ya\u015fanan devrim ruhu idi bu. 2019\u2019dan 5 y\u0131l sonra, Sudan\u2019da demokratikle\u015fme s\u00fcreci sonlanm\u0131\u015f, ekonomik faaliyetler kesintiye u\u011fram\u0131\u015f, toplumsal yap\u0131lar itibars\u0131zla\u015fm\u0131\u015f ve \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma, a\u00e7l\u0131k, g\u0131da k\u0131tl\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve vahim insani ortam Sudanl\u0131lar i\u00e7in g\u00fcnl\u00fck bir ger\u00e7eklik halini alm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r.<\/p>\n<\/div>

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