{"id":37843,"date":"2024-08-27T13:57:26","date_gmt":"2024-08-27T10:57:26","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/2024\/10\/01\/bangladesteki-buyuk-guc-rekabetinde-yeni-savas-alani-onumuzdeki-yol\/"},"modified":"2024-10-01T13:58:16","modified_gmt":"2024-10-01T10:58:16","slug":"bangladesteki-buyuk-guc-rekabetinde-yeni-savas-alani-onumuzdeki-yol","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/2024\/08\/27\/bangladesteki-buyuk-guc-rekabetinde-yeni-savas-alani-onumuzdeki-yol\/","title":{"rendered":"Banglade\u015f’teki B\u00fcy\u00fck G\u00fc\u00e7 Rekabetinde Yeni Sava\u015f Alan\u0131: \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki Yol"},"content":{"rendered":"

(Bu metin \u0130ngilizce orijinal versiyonundan terc\u00fcme edilmi\u015ftir.)<\/strong><\/em><\/span><\/p>\n

1971 y\u0131l\u0131nda Pakistan’dan ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 kazanmas\u0131ndan beri Banglade\u015f’in siyasi k\u00fclt\u00fcr\u00fc \u00e7e\u015fitli d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm a\u015famalar\u0131ndan ge\u00e7mi\u015ftir. Siyasi \u00f6zerklik, dil haklar\u0131 ve ayr\u0131mc\u0131l\u0131k gibi konular 1947’den 1971’e kadar \u00f6nemli bir yer tutmu\u015ftur. Siyasi ortam, \u015eeyh Muciburrahman’\u0131n liderli\u011fi, askeri darbeler ve 1990’a kadar \u00e7e\u015fitli demokratikle\u015fme a\u015famalar\u0131 ile daha da \u015fekillenmi\u015ftir. \u00dclke 1990 ve 2006 y\u0131llar\u0131 aras\u0131nda ger\u00e7ek bir demokratik d\u00f6nem ya\u015fam\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Ancak 2009’dan sonra \u015eeyh Hasina’n\u0131n liderli\u011finde \u00fclke bir kez daha demokratik y\u00f6netimden otoriter bir sisteme ge\u00e7i\u015f yapm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r.[i]<\/a><\/p>\n

A\u011fustos 2024’te sona eren 16 y\u0131ll\u0131k iktidar\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan, \u015eeyh Hasina rejiminin \u00e7\u00f6k\u00fc\u015f\u00fc ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen \u00f6nemli protestolarla daha da belirgin h\u00e2le geldi. Bu durum kritik bir soruyu g\u00fcndeme getirmektedir: anayasal, adli ve siyasi reformlar\u0131n \u00f6tesinde, ge\u00e7ici h\u00fck\u00fcmet d\u0131\u015f politikas\u0131n\u0131 nas\u0131l olu\u015fturacak ve k\u00fcresel g\u00fc\u00e7ler Banglade\u015f’teki \u00e7\u0131karlar\u0131n\u0131 korumak amac\u0131yla mevcut otoriteye nas\u0131l kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k verecektir?<\/p>\n

Temmuz Ayaklanmas\u0131ndan 5 A\u011fustos Devrimi\u2019ne<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u015eeyh Hasina’n\u0131n rejimine bakmak, Temmuz ayaklanmas\u0131n\u0131n \u00fc\u00e7 haftas\u0131ndan 5 A\u011fustos devrimine ge\u00e7i\u015fi anlama a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan   b\u00fcy\u00fck bir \u00f6nem ta\u015f\u0131r. Hasina’n\u0131n 16 y\u0131ll\u0131k g\u00f6rev s\u00fcresi boyunca, yarg\u0131s\u0131z infazlar, adam ka\u00e7\u0131rmalar, hapis cezalar\u0131, yolsuzluk, kay\u0131rmac\u0131l\u0131k ve a\u011f\u0131r insan haklar\u0131 ihlalleri yayg\u0131nd\u0131.[ii]<\/a><\/p>\n

Temmuz ayaklanmas\u0131 ve sonras\u0131nda ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen olaylar aras\u0131ndaki ba\u011flant\u0131, Dakka \u00dcniversitesi \u00f6nc\u00fcl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde ba\u015flayan, \u00f6\u011frencilerin tart\u0131\u015fmal\u0131 i\u015f kotas\u0131 sisteminde reform talepleri incelenerek anla\u015f\u0131labilir. Sistem 2018 y\u0131l\u0131nda feshedilmi\u015f olsa da Haziran 2024’te yeniden y\u00fcr\u00fcrl\u00fc\u011fe girmi\u015ftir. Eski Ba\u015fbakan Hasina’n\u0131n protestocular\u0131 \u201cRazakarlar\u201d (hainler) olarak yaftalamas\u0131 dahil olmak \u00fczere rejimin protestoculara verdi\u011fi otoriter tepki; g\u00f6sterileri yo\u011funla\u015ft\u0131rarak 5 A\u011fustos’ta \u00f6\u011frencilerin \u00f6nderli\u011finde kitlesel bir devrimle nihayetlendi.[iii]<\/a><\/p>\n

\u015eeyh Hasina rejiminin protestoculara verdi\u011fi sert tepkiye ra\u011fmen; okullardan, kolejlerden ve hem devlet hem de \u00f6zel \u00fcniversitelerden \u00f6\u011frencilerin yayg\u0131n kat\u0131l\u0131m\u0131 -\u00f6zellikle de k\u0131z \u00f6\u011frencilerin \u00f6nemli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde kat\u0131l\u0131m\u0131- ve sosyal medyan\u0131n etkin kullan\u0131m\u0131, basit bir protesto olarak ba\u015flayan hareketi kitlesel bir devrime d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcrd\u00fc. Bu geni\u015f \u00e7apl\u0131 seferberlik nihayetinde t\u00fcm d\u00fcnyan\u0131n yo\u011fun ilgisini \u00e7ekti.[iv]<\/a><\/p>\n

Stratejik Rekabetler ve B\u00fcy\u00fck G\u00fc\u00e7 Rekabeti<\/strong><\/p>\n

Banglade\u015f’teki jeopolitik dinamikler, \u00f6zellikle eski ba\u015fbakan\u0131n ayr\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6nem kazanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. \u015eu anki acil mesele, mevcut ge\u00e7ici h\u00fck\u00fcmetin jeopolitik stratejisini ve k\u00fcresel g\u00fc\u00e7lerin buna nas\u0131l kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k verece\u011fini belirlemektir. Hasina’n\u0131n g\u00f6rev s\u00fcresi boyunca Hindistan ve \u00c7in aras\u0131ndaki dengeli ili\u015fkilerle beraber 2018 y\u0131l\u0131na kadar ABD ile istikrarl\u0131 ba\u011flar\u0131n s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclmesi, k\u00fcresel akt\u00f6rler aras\u0131ndaki jeopolitik de\u011fi\u015fimleri anlama a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan olduk\u00e7a \u00f6nemliydi. \u00d6zellikle ABD’nin 2021 y\u0131l\u0131nda Hasina rejiminin baz\u0131 \u00fcyelerine y\u00f6nelik yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131, ABD’nin bu ba\u011flamda de\u011fi\u015fen tutumunun kilit bir g\u00f6stergesi olarak g\u00f6r\u00fclmektedir.[v]<\/a><\/p>\n

Banglade\u015f’teki mevcut ge\u00e7i\u015f s\u00fcrecinin \u00e7e\u015fitli \u00fclkelerin gelecekteki d\u0131\u015f politikalar\u0131n\u0131 anlama a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan kritik \u00f6nem ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve \u00f6zellikle Banglade\u015f’in k\u00fcresel b\u00fcy\u00fck g\u00fc\u00e7 rekabetinin odak noktalar\u0131ndan biri oldu\u011fu g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcne al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, Hindistan, \u00c7in, ABD, AB, Rusya ve Orta Do\u011fu \u00fclkelerinin Banglade\u015f ile \u00e7\u0131karlar\u0131n\u0131 ve i\u015f birliklerini nas\u0131l geli\u015ftirdiklerini takip etmek elzemdir.<\/p>\n

Stratejik Rekabetler ve Hindistan’\u0131n Konumland\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u201cY\u00fckselen b\u00fcy\u00fck g\u00fc\u00e7\u201d Hindistan’\u0131n mevcut ge\u00e7ici h\u00fck\u00fcmete y\u00f6nelik tutumunu incelemek gerekirse, Hindistan’\u0131n yeni y\u00f6netime temkinli ve tedrici yakla\u015fmay\u0131 ama\u00e7lad\u0131\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131kt\u0131r. Hindistan, 16 y\u0131ll\u0131k g\u00f6rev s\u00fcresi boyunca eski Ba\u015fbakan ve h\u00fck\u00fcmetine \u00f6nemli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde lojistik, teknik ve uluslararas\u0131 destek sa\u011flayarak kilit bir destek\u00e7i olmu\u015ftur. Rejime y\u00f6nelik k\u00fcresel deste\u011fin s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 olmas\u0131na ra\u011fmen, \u00f6zellikle 2014, 2018 ve 2024’teki demokratik olmayan se\u00e7imlerden sonra, Hindistan b\u00f6lgesel ve uluslararas\u0131 deste\u011fini s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmede hayati bir rol oynad\u0131. Hindistan Banglade\u015f i\u015f birli\u011finin temelinde g\u00fcvenlik kayg\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n ve ortak dini ideolojik \u00e7\u0131karlar\u0131n oldu\u011funu kabul etmek \u00f6nemlidir.<\/p>\n

1971\u2019den beri Hindistan, Banglade\u015f Avami Birli\u011fi\u2019nin g\u00fcvenilir bir m\u00fcttefik olarak hizmet etmesi yoluyla Banglade\u015f’in \u015fekillenmesinde etkili olmu\u015ftur.  Hindistan\u2019\u0131n Avami Birli\u011fi’ndeki h\u00e2kim konumunu kaybetme ihtimali, Banglade\u015f\u2019teki mevcut ge\u00e7ici h\u00fck\u00fcmetle olan ili\u015fkilerini \u00f6nemli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde etkileyebilir.<\/p>\n

Olumlu bir bak\u0131\u015f a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131yla Hindistan, Banglade\u015f’i bir bar\u0131\u015f ve istikrar modeli olarak konumland\u0131rarak d\u00fcnyaya Hindistan ile bar\u0131\u015f\u00e7\u0131l ili\u015fkiler geli\u015ftiren \u00fclkelerin ba\u015far\u0131l\u0131 olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6stermeyi ama\u00e7lamaktad\u0131r. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131mla Hindistan, \u00f6zellikle de\u011fi\u015fen k\u00fcresel d\u00fczende, k\u00fcresel siyasetteki rol\u00fcn\u00fc yeniden teyit etmeyi ama\u00e7l\u0131yor. Ancak, Hindistan’\u0131n Banglade\u015f’teki en b\u00fcy\u00fck hatalar\u0131ndan biri, yaln\u0131zca tek bir otoriter h\u00fck\u00fcmete g\u00fcvenmesi ve \u00fclkedeki di\u011fer gruplarla siyasi ittifaklar kurmamas\u0131yd\u0131.<\/p>\n

Bu nedenle, Banglade\u015f’teki son de\u011fi\u015fim Hindistan\u2019da \u00f6nemli bir \u015foka sebep olmu\u015ftur. \u015eeyh Hasina’n\u0131n d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcn hi\u00e7bir \u00fclkeyi Hindistan kadar deh\u015fete d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmedi\u011fi a\u00e7\u0131k. Yeni Delhi; Hasina ve Avami Birli\u011fi\u2019ne b\u00fcy\u00fck yat\u0131r\u0131m yapm\u0131\u015f ve onlar\u0131 tek uygun se\u00e7enek olarak g\u00f6rm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Hindistan, Hasina’n\u0131n \u0130slamc\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7ler taraf\u0131ndan istikrars\u0131zla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lan bir Banglade\u015f’e kar\u015f\u0131 tek ba\u015f\u0131na siper oldu\u011fu iddias\u0131n\u0131 uzun s\u00fcredir destekliyordu ve bu da \u00f6zellikle Hasina\u2019n\u0131n devrilmesini endi\u015fe verici k\u0131lmaktayd\u0131.<\/p>\n

Hindistan’\u0131n Banglade\u015f’le derinlemesine ili\u015fki kurmaktan ba\u015fka ge\u00e7erli bir se\u00e7ene\u011fi olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtmek \u00f6nemlidir, zira buradaki istikrars\u0131zl\u0131k Hindistan i\u00e7in istikrarl\u0131 bir Banglade\u015f’ten daha b\u00fcy\u00fck bir risk te\u015fkil etmektedir. Hindistan’\u0131n Banglade\u015f’teki mevcut proje ve yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n devaml\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve geli\u015ftirilmesinin yan\u0131 s\u0131ra, Hindistan’\u0131n kuzeydo\u011fu b\u00f6lgesi ve Bat\u0131 Bengal’deki bar\u0131\u015f ve g\u00fcvenli\u011fin sa\u011flanmas\u0131 i\u00e7in s\u00fcrekli m\u00fcdahale gereklidir. \u0130\u015fbirli\u011finden vazge\u00e7mek k\u0131sa vadeli avantajlar sunsa da Hindistan’\u0131n b\u00f6lgesel \u00e7\u0131karlar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan uzun vadede \u00f6nemli kay\u0131plara yol a\u00e7acakt\u0131r. Dahas\u0131, b\u00f6yle bir geri \u00e7ekilme \u00c7in’e Banglade\u015f’teki etkisini geni\u015fletmek i\u00e7in b\u00fcy\u00fck bir f\u0131rsat sunacak ve ekonomik yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n \u00f6tesine ge\u00e7erek g\u00fcvenlik, siyasi, askeri ve savunma alanlar\u0131n\u0131 da kapsayacakt\u0131r ki bu durum Hindistan\u2019\u0131 endi\u015feye sevk eder.<\/p>\n

Stratejik Rekabetler ve Hasina Sonras\u0131 \u00c7in-Banglade\u015f \u0130li\u015fkileri<\/strong><\/p>\n

2013 y\u0131l\u0131ndan beri \u00c7in; Banglade\u015f de d\u00e2hil olmak \u00fczere G\u00fcney Asya’ya g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir \u015fekilde odaklanan Ku\u015fak ve Yol Giri\u015fimi (BRI) arac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131yla, \u00f6nemli bir k\u00fcresel ve b\u00f6lgesel g\u00fc\u00e7 olarak ortaya \u00e7\u0131km\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. \u00c7in, 2017’den ve \u00c7in-Pakistan Ekonomik Koridoru’nun (CPEC) ba\u015flat\u0131lmas\u0131ndan sonra G\u00fcney Asya’daki etkinli\u011fini art\u0131rd\u0131. ABD ve Hindistan ile rekabetine ra\u011fmen \u00c7in’in \u00f6ncelikli hedefi, Banglade\u015f’te ekonomik ve yat\u0131r\u0131m f\u0131rsatlar\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fcvence alt\u0131na almakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n

\u015eeyh Hasina’n\u0131n otoriter y\u00f6netimi sayesinde, 2009’dan beri \u00c7in’in n\u00fcfuzu artm\u0131\u015f, bu da Bat\u0131 \u00e7\u0131karlar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda \u00c7in i\u00e7in elveri\u015fli ko\u015fullar sa\u011flam\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Ancak 2021 senesi ve ABD’nin Hint-Pasifik Stratejisi’nin y\u00fcr\u00fcrl\u00fc\u011fe girmesinden sonra Amerika’n\u0131n, Banglade\u015f’teki \u00c7in faaliyetlerine kar\u015f\u0131 tepkisi artm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k \u00c7in, Bengal K\u00f6rfezi’ndeki stratejik \u00f6nemi nedeniyle Banglade\u015f’e odaklanmaya devam ederken Hindistan ile politikas\u0131n\u0131 dengelemeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmaktad\u0131r. . Bu durum, \u00c7in’i Hint Okyanusu’na birle\u015ftirmekte ve Myanmar, Sri Lanka, Maldivler, Pakistan, \u0130ran ve Afrika Boynuzu b\u00f6lgesini birbirine ba\u011flamaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n

\u015eu ana kadar, \u00c7in’in Hasina sonras\u0131 Dr. Yunus liderli\u011findeki ge\u00e7ici h\u00fck\u00fcmete olumlu yan\u0131t verdi\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fclmektedir. Daha \u00f6nce de belirtildi\u011fi \u00fczere \u00c7in; ticaretinin, ekonomisinin ve yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n g\u00fcvenli\u011fini ve emniyetini herhangi bir iktidar partisinin kimli\u011finden daha \u00f6nde tutmaktad\u0131r. Sonu\u00e7 olarak, Banglade\u015f’teki son de\u011fi\u015fimlerin, gelecekteki siyasi ge\u00e7i\u015flerde bile \u00c7in’in tutumunu veya ge\u00e7ici h\u00fck\u00fcmetle olan ili\u015fkisini \u00f6nemli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde etkilemesi m\u00fcmk\u00fcn de\u011fildir. Ancak \u00c7in\u2019in mevcut ge\u00e7ici h\u00fck\u00fcmet ile \u00e7\u0131karlar\u0131n\u0131 korumas\u0131n\u0131n Hasina rejiminde oldu\u011fu kadar kolay olmayabilece\u011fi a\u00e7\u0131kt\u0131r. Ge\u00e7ici h\u00fck\u00fcmetin Bat\u0131l\u0131 \u00fclkelerle, bilhassa da ABD ile daha fazla ili\u015fki i\u00e7inde oldu\u011fu g\u00f6r\u00fclmektedir ki bu da \u00c7in’in \u00e7\u0131karlar\u0131n\u0131 koruma \u00e7abalar\u0131n\u0131 zorla\u015ft\u0131rabilir.<\/p>\n

Mevcut ge\u00e7i\u015f krizinde Banglade\u015f, mali destek ve s\u00fcrekli yat\u0131r\u0131m i\u00e7in \u00c7in’e giderek daha fazla ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131 hale gelmekte. Ne var ki gelecek; \u00f6zellikle ABD ile olan di\u011fer siyasi, diplomatik ve g\u00fcvenlik \u00f6ncelikleri g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcne al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, ge\u00e7ici h\u00fck\u00fcmetin \u00c7in ile ili\u015fkilerini nas\u0131l y\u00f6nlendirece\u011fini ortaya koyacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n

Banglade\u015f’teki B\u00fcy\u00fck G\u00fc\u00e7 Rekabetindeki G\u00fcncel Sava\u015f Alan\u0131na ABD’yi Yerle\u015ftirmek<\/strong><\/p>\n

ABD’nin Banglade\u015f’i Hint-Pasifik Stratejisi (IPS) \u00e7er\u00e7evesine dahil etmeyi ama\u00e7lad\u0131\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131kt\u0131r. Hasina rejimi alt\u0131nda, \u00c7in ile rejim aras\u0131ndaki g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ekonomik ve yat\u0131r\u0131m ba\u011flar\u0131 dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda bu hedef bir \u015fekilde dengelenmi\u015fti. Mevcut ge\u00e7ici h\u00fck\u00fcmetin   kendisini \u00c7in ve ABD aras\u0131nda konumland\u0131rmas\u0131 \u015fu anda d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck bir \u00f6ncelik gibi duruyor. ABD ve AB \u00fclkeleri ile daha dostane bir ili\u015fki geli\u015ftirme niyeti a\u00e7\u0131k olsa da Bat\u0131 ile stratejik ili\u015fkilerini nas\u0131l yap\u0131land\u0131racaklar\u0131 hen\u00fcz belli de\u011fil.<\/p>\n

Tarihsel olarak ABD’nin Banglade\u015f’e yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131 Hindistan ile olan ili\u015fkisinden etkilenmi\u015ftir. Fakat 2021’den beri ve \u00f6zellikle Banglade\u015f’teki 2024 ulusal se\u00e7imleri s\u0131ras\u0131nda, ABD’nin Hasina rejimine y\u00f6nelik politikas\u0131n\u0131n Hindistan’\u0131n politikas\u0131ndan \u00f6nemli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde farkl\u0131la\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131k\u00e7a belli olmu\u015ftur. Her iki \u00fclke de Hint-Pasifik b\u00f6lgesinde stratejik bir \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131 payla\u015fmas\u0131na ra\u011fmen, politikalar\u0131 \u00e7e\u015fitli \u00fclkelerdeki stratejik \u00f6nceliklere g\u00f6re farkl\u0131la\u015fmaktad\u0131r. Bu ayr\u0131\u015fman\u0131n \u00f6nemli bir \u00f6rne\u011fini Banglade\u015f olu\u015fturmaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n

K\u00fcresel ba\u011flamda, Nobel Bar\u0131\u015f \u00d6d\u00fcl\u00fc sahibi Dr. Yunus, Bat\u0131\u2019da olumlu kar\u015f\u0131lanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r; ancak Banglade\u015f’teki durum daha karma\u015f\u0131k olabilir. N\u00fcfusu 170 milyon olan Banglade\u015f’in \u00f6ncelikleri, ABD veya AB’nin g\u00fcvenlik \u00e7\u0131karlar\u0131na odaklanmak yerine ekonomik, ticari ve yat\u0131r\u0131m \u00e7\u0131karlar\u0131na daha fazla y\u00f6nelebilir. Hangi \u00fclkenin Banglade\u015f\u2019e   daha fazla yat\u0131r\u0131m yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve hangi pazarlara ihracat\u0131n\u0131 ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirdi\u011fi, Banglade\u015f i\u00e7in gelecekte kritik bir soru olacakt\u0131r. Bu nedenle ister ge\u00e7ici h\u00fck\u00fcmet ister gelecekteki demokratik bir y\u00f6netim alt\u0131nda olsun, ABD ve AB’nin ithalat i\u00e7in kilit ortaklar olarak \u00f6nemi devam ederken, \u00c7in\u2019in yat\u0131r\u0131mlardaki rol\u00fc g\u00f6z ard\u0131 edilemez.<\/p>\n

Gelecekte, ABD’nin stratejisi bir sonraki Banglade\u015f y\u00f6netimini bir ikilemde b\u0131rakabilir. Bu durum Amerika’n\u0131n Myanmar’daki g\u00fcvenlik \u00e7\u0131karlar\u0131ndan ya da Asya-Pasifik ve Hint-Pasifik b\u00f6lgelerindeki daha geni\u015f kapsaml\u0131 uzun vadeli hedeflerinden kaynaklanabilir. \u015eu anda ABD \u00f6ncelikle Hindistan, Japonya ve Avustralya’n\u0131n dahil oldu\u011fu D\u00f6rtl\u00fc G\u00fcvenlik Diyalo\u011fu (QUAD) veya \u0130ngiltere ve Avustralya’n\u0131n dahil oldu\u011fu AUKUS gibi \u00e7er\u00e7eveler arac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131yla ba\u011flant\u0131 kurmaktad\u0131r.  Ancak, gelecekte Banglade\u015f gibi \u00fclkeler \u00c7in’in Hint-Pasifik b\u00f6lgesindeki etkisine kar\u015f\u0131 koymada daha fazla \u00f6nem kazanabilir. Dahas\u0131, Hindistan-ABD \u00f6nc\u00fcl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcndeki Orta Do\u011fu-Avrupa Ekonomik Koridoru (IMEC) gibi son giri\u015fimler lojistik, teknik ve a\u011f deste\u011fi a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan Banglade\u015f’in \u00f6nemini art\u0131racakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n

Asl\u0131nda, ABD’nin gelecekte Hint-Pasifik Stratejisini (IPS) etkin bir \u015fekilde uygulamak i\u00e7in Banglade\u015f’e daha fazla ihtiya\u00e7 duyaca\u011f\u0131 iddia edilebilir. De\u011fi\u015fen jeopolitik \u00f6ncelikler, bu dinamiklerin b\u00f6lgesel \u00e7\u0131karlar\u0131 ve politikay\u0131 nas\u0131l \u015fekillendirece\u011fini belirleyecektir.<\/p>\n

Di\u011fer K\u00fcresel Akt\u00f6rlerin \u00d6ncelikleri<\/strong><\/p>\n

Rusya ve Fransa, Almanya gibi AB \u00fclkeleri olan di\u011fer akt\u00f6rler, \u00f6zellikle ge\u00e7ici h\u00fck\u00fcmet d\u00f6neminde Banglade\u015f’te \u00e7ok k\u0131s\u0131tl\u0131 bir role sahiptir. Bu akt\u00f6rlerin etkisi, Banglade\u015f’teki \u00e7\u0131karlar\u0131ndan ziyade ge\u00e7ici h\u00fck\u00fcmetin Rusya gibi \u00fclkelere y\u00f6nelik politikas\u0131n\u0131 nas\u0131l \u015fekillendirdi\u011fiyle ilgilidir. Dr. Yunus liderli\u011findeki ge\u00e7ici h\u00fck\u00fcmetin, ister Rusya-Ukrayna \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 ister Rusya-Hindistan enerji ili\u015fkileri ile ilgili olsun, Rusya’n\u0131n karma\u015f\u0131k jeopolitik manevralar\u0131na kar\u0131\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n pek m\u00fcmk\u00fcn olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131kt\u0131r.<\/p>\n

\u00d6te yandan; geleneksel olarak Orta Do\u011fu b\u00f6lgesi, \u00f6zellikle de K\u00f6rfez b\u00f6lgesi, \u00e7o\u011funlukla K\u00f6rfez \u00fclkelerinde ikamet eden yakla\u015f\u0131k be\u015f milyonluk \u00f6nemli diasporas\u0131ndan \u00f6t\u00fcr\u00fc Banglade\u015f i\u00e7in b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6nem ta\u015f\u0131maktad\u0131r. Hasina rejimine kar\u015f\u0131 ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen protestolar esnas\u0131nda BAE yetkilileri taraf\u0131ndan tutuklanan yakla\u015f\u0131k 57 Banglade\u015fli g\u00f6\u00e7menin durumu, mevcut ge\u00e7ici h\u00fck\u00fcmet i\u00e7in kilit bir politika konusudur. Ge\u00e7ici h\u00fck\u00fcmetin \u00f6nceliklerinden biri, bu Banglade\u015fli g\u00f6\u00e7menlerin serbest b\u0131rak\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 sa\u011flamak i\u00e7in BAE yetkilileriyle temas kurmakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n

Ayr\u0131ca mevcut ge\u00e7ici h\u00fck\u00fcmet; Banglade\u015f’te siyasal \u0130slamc\u0131 partilerin \u00f6nemli bir g\u00fc\u00e7 kazanmas\u0131n\u0131n m\u00fcmk\u00fcn olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 vurgulayarak Suudi Arabistan, Bahreyn ve BAE gibi K\u00f6rfez \u00fclkelerine kar\u015f\u0131 laik imaj\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendirmeyi ama\u00e7lamaktad\u0131r. Laikli\u011fe olan bu ba\u011fl\u0131l\u0131k, \u015eeyh Hasina’n\u0131n d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcn ard\u0131ndan Dr. Yunus’un \u00f6\u011frenci gruplar\u0131 ve ya\u015fl\u0131lar taraf\u0131ndan se\u00e7ilmesinde bir etken olmu\u015ftur. Banglade\u015f Cemaat-i \u0130slami (BJI) gibi \u0130slami siyasi partilerin gelecek se\u00e7imlerde \u00f6nemli bir rol oynayabilece\u011fi do\u011fru olsa da BJI’nin Banglade\u015f’te \u00e7o\u011funlu\u011fu elde etmesi pek m\u00fcmk\u00fcn de\u011fildir. Ayr\u0131ca, \u0130slami siyasi partilerin \u00e7o\u011funlu\u011fu elde etmesi halinde Banglade\u015f’in M\u0131s\u0131r veya Tunus’taki \u0130slami partilerin ya\u015fad\u0131\u011f\u0131 benzer zorluklarla kar\u015f\u0131la\u015fma riski bulunmaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n

\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki Yol<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u015eu ana kadar mevcut ge\u00e7ici h\u00fck\u00fcmet i\u00e7in d\u0131\u015f politikan\u0131n acil bir \u00f6ncelik olmayaca\u011f\u0131 ortada. Bunun yerine anayasa reformu, kanun ve d\u00fczenin sa\u011flanmas\u0131, ekonominin iyile\u015ftirilmesi ve demokratik, \u00f6zg\u00fcr ve adil bir se\u00e7imin yap\u0131lmas\u0131na odaklan\u0131lacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n

Buna ra\u011fmen, birka\u00e7 acil d\u0131\u015f politika endi\u015fesi bulunmaktad\u0131r. Bunlardan biri, \u00f6zellikle \u015eeyh Hasina’n\u0131n Hindistan\u2019da kalmaya devam etmesiyle m\u00fccadele ba\u011flam\u0131nda Hindistan ile ili\u015fkilerin y\u00f6netilmesidir. Bir di\u011feri ise Banglade\u015f’in kom\u015fusu Myanmar’la ilgili meselelerin ele al\u0131nmas\u0131d\u0131r. Myanmar’da t\u0131rmanan \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma; yay\u0131lma etkilerinin artmas\u0131 ve Rohingya m\u00fcltecilerinin \u00e7o\u011falmas\u0131 gibi riskler olu\u015fturmaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n

H\u00fck\u00fcmet d\u0131\u015f politikaya daha fazla \u00f6nem vermeye ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131nda -ki Banglade\u015f\u2019in b\u00fcy\u00fck ve b\u00f6lgesel g\u00fc\u00e7ler, orta g\u00fc\u00e7ler, Bat\u0131 ve K\u00fcresel G\u00fcney ile ili\u015fkilerini dengelemesi ve istikrara kavu\u015fturmas\u0131 beklenen bir sonu\u00e7tur- uluslararas\u0131 meselelere yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131 da belirgin h\u00e2le gelecektir.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Referanslar<\/strong><\/p>\n

[i]<\/a> Islam, M. Nazmul. (2022). Bangladesh (Banglade\u015f), H\u00fcseyin T\u00fcrkan edt. G\u00fcney Asya \u00dclke Analizleri<\/em> i\u00e7inde. \u0130stanbul: Gasam. https:\/\/gasam.org.tr\/guney-asya-ulke-analizleri-kitap-pdf\/<\/a><\/p>\n

[ii]<\/a> Islam, M. Nazmul (2024). Bangladesh 2.0: A new path for equality, human dignity and justice. Anadolu Agency,<\/em> 6 A\u011fustos 2024. https:\/\/www.aa.com.tr\/en\/analysis\/opinion-bangladesh-20-a-new-path-for-equality-human-dignity-and-justice\/3297060<\/a><\/p>\n

[iii]<\/a>Bangladesh: From a student protest to a movement. https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=s9hAT1xd-xY&t=9s<\/a><\/p>\n

[iv]<\/a> EkoT\u00fcrk TV (11 A\u011fustos 2024). Banglade\u015f’te iktidar de\u011fi\u015fimine giden s\u00fcre\u00e7 | Do\u00e7. Dr. Nazmul \u0130slam | Feyza G\u00fcm\u00fc\u015fl\u00fco\u011flu | Saat Fark\u0131. https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=TkgJ6ZchpYc<\/a><\/p>\n

[v]<\/a> Islam, M. Nazmul (2024). Bangladesh 2.0: A new path for equality, human dignity and justice. Anadolu Agency, 6 A\u011fustos 2024.  <\/a>https:\/\/www.aa.com.tr\/en\/analysis\/opinion-bangladesh-20-a-new-path-for-equality-human-dignity-and-justice\/3297060<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>

<\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

1971 y\u0131l\u0131nda Pakistan’dan ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 kazanmas\u0131ndan beri Banglade\u015f’in siyasi k\u00fclt\u00fcr\u00fc \u00e7e\u015fitli d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm a\u015famalar\u0131ndan ge\u00e7mi\u015ftir. Siyasi \u00f6zerklik, dil haklar\u0131 ve ayr\u0131mc\u0131l\u0131k gibi konular 1947’den 1971’e kadar \u00f6nemli bir yer tutmu\u015ftur. Siyasi ortam, \u015eeyh Muciburrahman’\u0131n liderli\u011fi, askeri darbeler ve 1990’a kadar \u00e7e\u015fitli demokratikle\u015fme a\u015famalar\u0131 ile daha da \u015fekillenmi\u015ftir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":305,"featured_media":37783,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","ngg_post_thumbnail":0},"categories":[364],"tags":[],"asf_pub_issue":[10317],"asf_pub_region":[10329],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/37843"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/305"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=37843"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/37843\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":37846,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/37843\/revisions\/37846"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/37783"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=37843"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=37843"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=37843"},{"taxonomy":"asf_pub_issue","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/asf_pub_issue?post=37843"},{"taxonomy":"asf_pub_region","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/asf_pub_region?post=37843"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}