{"id":37875,"date":"2024-10-15T14:29:38","date_gmt":"2024-10-15T11:29:38","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/2024\/10\/15\/kerkukte-hassas-denge-bolgeyi-neler-bekliyor\/"},"modified":"2024-10-15T14:29:39","modified_gmt":"2024-10-15T11:29:39","slug":"kerkukte-hassas-denge-bolgeyi-neler-bekliyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/2024\/10\/15\/kerkukte-hassas-denge-bolgeyi-neler-bekliyor\/","title":{"rendered":"Kerk\u00fck\u2019te Hassas Denge: B\u00f6lgeyi Neler Bekliyor?"},"content":{"rendered":"

(Bu metin \u0130ngilizce orijinal versiyonundan terc\u00fcme edilmi\u015ftir.)<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

18 Aral\u0131k 2023 tarihinde Kerk\u00fck\u2019te ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen<\/a> il se\u00e7imleri, 18 y\u0131ll\u0131k bir aradan sonra \u015fehirdeki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmayla dolu birlikte ya\u015fama ortam\u0131na nispeten umut getirdi. Ancak; 8 ay sonra ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen valilik se\u00e7imleri, Kerk\u00fck\u2019teki etnik gruplar, siyasi partiler ve d\u0131\u015f g\u00fc\u00e7ler aras\u0131ndaki \u00e7eki\u015fmelerin devam edece\u011fini g\u00f6sterdi.<\/p>\n

Kerk\u00fck merkezli bu rekabetin, 20 Ekim’de<\/a> yap\u0131lacak olan Irak K\u00fcrdistan B\u00f6lgesi Parlamento se\u00e7imleri \u00f6ncesinde yo\u011funla\u015fmas\u0131 dolay\u0131s\u0131yla Irakl\u0131 K\u00fcrtler aras\u0131ndaki gerilimlerin artmas\u0131 bekleniyor. T\u00fcrkiye’nin PKK ile m\u00fccadelesi ve \u0130ran’\u0131n vekilleri arac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131yla artan etkisi, Kerk\u00fck\u2019\u00fcn \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki sorunlar\u0131 aras\u0131nda yer alacak gibi duruyor.<\/p>\n

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Kerk\u00fck\u2019\u00fcn \u00c7at\u0131\u015fmac\u0131 Yap\u0131s\u0131<\/strong><\/p>\n

Kerk\u00fck\u2019teki il meclisi se\u00e7imleri hem yerel hem de b\u00f6lgesel akt\u00f6rler a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan kritik bir \u00f6neme sahip oldu\u011fu gibi bu se\u00e7imler, 2017’de K\u00fcrdistan Demokrat Partisi (KDP) taraf\u0131ndan desteklenen Irak K\u00fcrdistan B\u00f6lgesi ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131k referandumdan sonra, Ba\u011fdat h\u00fck\u00fcmeti ve Ha\u015fdi \u015eabi taraf\u0131ndan ele ge\u00e7irilen<\/a> \u015fehirdeki mevcut d\u00fczenin de\u011fi\u015fme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fcndeme getirdi.<\/p>\n

Irakl\u0131 K\u00fcrtlerin, valilik se\u00e7imlerinde be\u015fini K\u00fcrdistan Yurtseverler Birli\u011fi (KYB), ikisini KDP olmak \u00fczere toplam yedi koltuk kazanmas\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131n, iktidardaki K\u00fcrt partilerinin se\u00e7imlerde ayr\u0131 ayr\u0131 yar\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131 ve vali se\u00e7imlerinde birbirleriyle z\u0131t kutuplarda olmalar\u0131, Irakl\u0131 K\u00fcrtlerin belirleyici bir rol oynamas\u0131n\u0131 engelledi.<\/p>\n

T\u00fcrkiye, KYB lideri Bafel Talabani\u2019yi PKK’y\u0131 desteklemekle su\u00e7layarak<\/a>, KDP ile \u00f6zellikle IKBY’deki PKK ile m\u00fccadelede yak\u0131n siyasi ili\u015fkiler kurmakta ve Irakl\u0131 S\u00fcnniler \u00fczerinde etki yaratmak i\u00e7in \u00e7abalamaktad\u0131r. Ankara, KYB\u2019yi b\u00f6lge d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda tutmak amac\u0131yla, T\u00fcrkmenler, KDP ve S\u00fcnni Araplar aras\u0131nda bir ittifak kurmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015farak Kerk\u00fck\u2019teki \u0130ran dinami\u011fine kar\u015f\u0131 bir meydan okuma giri\u015fiminde bulundu.<\/p>\n

Ancak, Ankara destekli Irak T\u00fcrkmen Cephesi (ITC), \u00f6nerdi\u011fi<\/a> “d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcml\u00fc valilik sistemi” konusunda KDP ve Araplar\u0131 ikna edemedi. Kerk\u00fck\u2019\u00fcn T\u00fcrkmenlerin ba\u015fkenti olarak g\u00f6r\u00fclmesine ra\u011fmen, ITC\u2019nin yaln\u0131zca iki koltuk kazanmas\u0131, bu etnik grubun \u015fehirdeki etkisinin ne kadar az oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n

Asl\u0131nda, Kerk\u00fck\u2019teki T\u00fcrkmenlerin yap\u0131s\u0131, mezhepsel olarak Ankara ve Tahran aras\u0131nda b\u00f6l\u00fcnm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcr. ITC i\u00e7indeki liderlik yar\u0131\u015f\u0131, partinin bir arada oldu\u011fu g\u00f6r\u00fcnt\u00fcs\u00fc dahi vermesini engelleyen bir di\u011fer temel sebeptir.<\/p>\n

\u00d6te yandan, se\u00e7imlerde alt\u0131 koltuk kazanm\u0131\u015f olmalar\u0131na ra\u011fmen, Araplar; Arap Koalisyonu, Kiyade Koalisyonu ve Arap Uruba \u0130ttifak\u0131 listeleri alt\u0131nda ayr\u0131 ayr\u0131 yar\u0131\u015ft\u0131lar. Bu b\u00f6l\u00fcnme, 2017\u2019den itibaren b\u00f6lgede y\u00fcr\u00fctt\u00fckleri idarecilik g\u00f6revlerini s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmelerine engel te\u015fkil etmi\u015ftir. Ayr\u0131ca, Irak Parlamento Ba\u015fkanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in ya\u015fanan rekabet, S\u00fcnniler aras\u0131nda par\u00e7alanmalara yol a\u00e7arak Kerk\u00fck\u2019teki \u0130ran etkisinin artmas\u0131na zemin haz\u0131rlam\u0131\u015ft\u0131r<\/p>\n

Sonu\u00e7 olarak; 10 A\u011fustos tarihinde Ba\u011fdat’ta ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen<\/a> toplant\u0131da, Kerk\u00fck valili\u011fi, be\u015f KYB, \u00fc\u00e7 Arap ve \u0130ran yanl\u0131s\u0131 Babil Hareketi\u2019nden bir Hristiyan kotas\u0131n\u0131n deste\u011fi ile KYB\u2019li Rebwar Taha\u2019ya verildi. \u0130l genel meclis ba\u015fkanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 da Arap fraksiyonundan Muhammed Haf\u0131z\u2019a verildi. Bu durum, \u0130ran destekli gruplar\u0131n Kerk\u00fck\u2019te \u00f6nemli oyun kurucular oldu\u011funu yeniden g\u00f6stermi\u015f oldu. Onlar\u0131n KYB aday\u0131n\u0131 desteklemeleri Ankara-KDP-S\u00fcnni ittifak\u0131ndan bir ismin valilik g\u00f6revini almas\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcne ge\u00e7ti. Ayr\u0131ca, en b\u00fcy\u00fck S\u00fcnni ittifak olan Takaddum’un liderinin ve g\u00f6revden al\u0131nan Parlamento Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Muhammed Halbusi\u2019nin KYB\u2019yi desteklemesi<\/a>, Ankara’n\u0131n S\u00fcnnilerle birlikte hareket etme politikas\u0131n\u0131n da ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131z olmas\u0131na yol a\u00e7t\u0131<\/p>\n

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KYB Valisi\u2019ne Reaksiyonlar<\/strong><\/p>\n

2017\u2019de Ba\u011fdat taraf\u0131ndan Kerk\u00fck\u2019\u00fcn vali vekili olarak atanan Arap Rakan Said Cuburi, Ba\u011fdat\u2019ta yap\u0131lan valilik se\u00e7im toplant\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 \u201cKerk\u00fckl\u00fc Araplara ihanet<\/a>\u201d olarak nitelendirdi. ITC, valilik se\u00e7imlerinin iptali i\u00e7in Irak Federal Y\u00fcksek Mahkemesi’ne ba\u015fvuruda bulunmas\u0131n\u0131n<\/a> yan\u0131 s\u0131ra, \u015fehirde se\u00e7im kar\u015f\u0131t\u0131 bir g\u00f6steri de d\u00fczenledi. ITC, ayr\u0131ca Taha\u2019n\u0131n mahkeme karar\u0131 verilmeden \u00f6nce be\u015f vali yard\u0131mc\u0131s\u0131 atamas\u0131n\u0131 da ele\u015ftirdi. T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de iktidar olan Adalet ve Kalk\u0131nma Partisi\u2019nin s\u00f6zc\u00fcs\u00fc \u00d6mer \u00c7elik, KYB\u2019yi KDP-T\u00fcrkmenleri ve baz\u0131 Araplar\u0131 d\u0131\u015flamakla su\u00e7lad\u0131.<\/a><\/p>\n

KDP\u2019nin toplant\u0131y\u0131 yasad\u0131\u015f\u0131 olarak ele\u015ftirmesine ra\u011fmen, T\u00fcrkmenlerin yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 gibi mahkemeye ba\u015fvuru yapmamalar\u0131 dikkat \u00e7ekici bir detayd\u0131r. KDP ve KYB\u2019nin daha \u00f6nce bir K\u00fcrt vali konusunda anla\u015fm\u0131\u015f olmalar\u0131 ve KDP\u2019nin K\u00fcrt vali konusundaki \u0131srar\u0131, T\u00fcrkmen-KDP-Araplar aras\u0131ndaki d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcml\u00fc valilik sisteminin ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131zl\u0131k nedenlerinden biri olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.\u00a0 KDP\u2019nin mevcut K\u00fcrt valisine kar\u015f\u0131 dava a\u00e7mamas\u0131, IKBY se\u00e7imleri \u00f6ncesinde K\u00fcrt halk\u0131 \u00fczerinde rahats\u0131zl\u0131k yaratmaktan ka\u00e7\u0131nma giri\u015fimi olarak de\u011ferlendirilebilir.<\/p>\n

G\u00f6reve ba\u015flad\u0131ktan hemen sonra T\u00fcrkmenler, KDP ve Arap \u00fcyelere diyalog \u00e7a\u011fr\u0131s\u0131<\/a> yapan Taha’n\u0131n, eski vali vekili Cuburi\u2019yi ya\u015f\u0131ndan dolay\u0131 emeklili\u011fe zorlamas\u0131n\u0131 bir intikam giri\u015fimi olarak yorumlamak m\u00fcmk\u00fcnd\u00fcr. Buna ek olarak, Juburi\u2019nin emeklili\u011fiyle ilgili Taha taraf\u0131ndan imzalanan ilk resmi yaz\u0131da<\/a> T\u00fcrkmen diline Arap\u00e7a ve K\u00fcrt\u00e7e dillerinin yan\u0131nda yer verilmemesi, T\u00fcrkmenler taraf\u0131ndan olumsuz kar\u015f\u0131land\u0131. Bunun ard\u0131ndan, Taha\u2019n\u0131n resmi yaz\u0131\u015fmalarda T\u00fcrkmen dilinin kullan\u0131lmas\u0131na y\u00f6nelik talimat verdi\u011fini duyurmas\u0131 ya\u015fanan gerginli\u011fi azaltt\u0131.<\/p>\n

Bu s\u00fcre\u00e7te T\u00fcrkiye, PKK ile olan ba\u011flant\u0131lar\u0131 nedeniyle KYB \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 yaratarak, ITC\u2019nin Kerk\u00fck\u2019te KYB ile uyum i\u00e7inde \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n yolunu t\u0131k\u0131yor.\u00a0 T\u00fcm bunlara ra\u011fmen; yeni valinin \u015fehirdeki \u0130ran yanl\u0131s\u0131 \u015eii T\u00fcrkmenlerle olas\u0131 i\u015f birli\u011fi, yaln\u0131zca ITC i\u00e7in bir kay\u0131p olmamakla birlikte, ayn\u0131 zamanda \u0130ran yanl\u0131s\u0131 T\u00fcrkmenlerin, T\u00fcrkmenlere ayr\u0131lan pozisyonlar\u0131 da almas\u0131na yol a\u00e7abilir. ITC\u2019nin kat\u0131lmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 Ba\u011fdat\u2019taki valilik se\u00e7im toplant\u0131s\u0131nda \u0130ran destekli Bedir \u00d6rg\u00fct\u00fc\u2019ne yak\u0131n olan \u015eii T\u00fcrkmen Milletvekili Garib al-Asker\u2019in bulunmas\u0131<\/a>, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n \u015fehirdeki t\u00fcm etnik gruplar aras\u0131nda kendine yak\u0131n akt\u00f6rler \u00fcretme yetene\u011fini g\u00f6stermektedir. Bu nedenle, Irak T\u00fcrkmenlerinin mevcut siyasi arenada kendilerine yer bulamamas\u0131, Kerk\u00fck\u2019te zaten erimekte olan T\u00fcrkmen politika krizini daha da derinle\u015ftirecektir.<\/p>\n

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IKBY Se\u00e7imleri ve Ankara-KYB Gerilimi<\/strong><\/p>\n

Ayn\u0131 zamanda KYB’li bir isim olan Irak Cumhurba\u015fkan\u0131 Abdullatif Re\u015fid\u2019inT\u00fcrkmenler ve Araplar\u0131n itirazlar\u0131na ra\u011fmen valilik yetkisini Rebwar Taha\u2019ya vermesi<\/a> ve yak\u0131n zamanda ilk ziyaretini<\/a> Kerk\u00fck\u2019e ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirecek olmas\u0131, KYB\u2019nin Kerk\u00fck\u2019\u00fc se\u00e7im kampanyas\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6ncelikli noktalar\u0131ndan biri olarak se\u00e7ti\u011fi \u015feklinde yorumlanabilir. \u0130lgin\u00e7 bir \u015fekilde; Re\u015fid\u2019in Kerk\u00fck\u2019\u00fcn tart\u0131\u015fmal\u0131 durumunu ele alan 140. Maddeyi<\/a> vurgulamas\u0131, KYB\u2019nin se\u00e7im s\u00fcrecinde KDP\u2019ye kar\u015f\u0131 K\u00fcrt milliyet\u00e7ili\u011finden yararlanma hamlesi olarak g\u00f6r\u00fclebilir.<\/p>\n

Buna ra\u011fmen, KYB\u2019nin devaml\u0131 olarak S\u00fcleymaniye\u2019nin Erbil\u2019den \u00f6zerklik talebini g\u00fcndeme getirmesi ve bunu Ba\u011fdat ile mali olarak ili\u015fkilendirmesi g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcne al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, KYB\u2019nin b\u00f6yle bir politikay\u0131 ger\u00e7ek anlamda geli\u015ftirmesi beklenmiyor. Bu durumun nedeniyse, Kerk\u00fck\u2019\u00fc Irak\u2019\u0131n bir \u015fehri olarak tan\u0131mlayan \u0130ran yanl\u0131s\u0131 Irakl\u0131 politikac\u0131lar ile olan yak\u0131n ili\u015fkilerine zarar verecek olmas\u0131d\u0131r.<\/p>\n

Di\u011fer taraftan, T\u00fcrkiye, KYB\u2019nin Kerk\u00fck\u2019te PKK i\u00e7in bir alan a\u00e7abilece\u011fi endi\u015fesini ta\u015f\u0131yor.\u00a0 Ankara\u2019n\u0131n, Kerk\u00fck\u2019\u00fc PKK\u2019ya kar\u015f\u0131 operasyon b\u00f6lgesinin yeni bir par\u00e7as\u0131 olarak de\u011ferlendirmesi s\u00fcrpriz olmayacakt\u0131r. Bu do\u011frultuda, valilik se\u00e7iminden k\u0131sa bir s\u00fcre sonra, Kerk\u00fck \u00fczerinde bir T\u00fcrk dronu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcr.<\/a> Ancak Irakl\u0131 yetkililer \u00e7eli\u015fkili a\u00e7\u0131klamalar<\/a> yaparak \u00f6nce T\u00fcrk dronunu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrd\u00fcklerini, daha sonra ise ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen kazan\u0131n nedenlerinin ara\u015ft\u0131r\u0131laca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirttiler. Bu durum, Ankara\u2019n\u0131n KYB valisine y\u00f6nelik olas\u0131 bir \u201cPKK uyar\u0131s\u0131\u201d olarak yorumlanabilirken, \u015fehirdeki \u0130ran yanl\u0131s\u0131 gruplar\u0131n kar\u015f\u0131 hamlelerini de g\u00f6stermi\u015f olabilir. Ayr\u0131ca, dronun d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fclmesi, Ba\u011fdat\u2019\u0131n Ankara\u2019n\u0131n olas\u0131 askeri m\u00fcdahalesine kar\u015f\u0131 sert bir \u015fekilde yan\u0131t verece\u011fi anlam\u0131na da gelebilir.<\/p>\n

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\u0130ran Etkisi<\/strong><\/p>\n

KYB\u2019nin valilik se\u00e7imini kazanmas\u0131, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n Irakl\u0131 K\u00fcrtler, Araplar ve T\u00fcrkmenler aras\u0131ndaki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131 kendi lehine nas\u0131l kullanabilece\u011finin bir \u00f6rne\u011fidir. Ayr\u0131ca, KYB tekrardan hem Ba\u011fdat ile olan yak\u0131n ili\u015fkilerinin hem de \u0130ran destekli Irakl\u0131 siyasi-milis gruplarla olan ba\u011flar\u0131n\u0131n meyvelerini toplam\u0131\u015f; bu durum bize KYB’nin Erbil yerine Ba\u011fdat\u2019a y\u00f6nelik bir politika izlemesiyle de ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 oldu\u011funu g\u00f6stermi\u015ftir. \u00d6te yandan, T\u00fcrkiye ile g\u00fcvenlik, askeri ve ter\u00f6rle m\u00fccadele konular\u0131nda i\u015fbirli\u011fi \u00fczerine bir mutabakat zapt\u0131 imzalayan<\/a> Irak, PKK\u2019y\u0131 yasaklam\u0131\u015f<\/a>, PKK ile ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 partilerin da\u011f\u0131t\u0131lmas\u0131na<\/a> karar vermi\u015f ve \u00f6rg\u00fct\u00fc \u00fclkenin kuzeyindeki pazarlar\u0131 ate\u015fe vermekle su\u00e7lam\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Fakat, T\u00fcrkiye ve Irak\u2019\u0131n PKK\u2019ya kar\u015f\u0131 artan ivme ve Ankara\u2019n\u0131n S\u00fcleymaniye \u00fczerindeki askeri ve siyasi bask\u0131s\u0131, KYB\u2019nin Ba\u011fdat\u2019taki etkisinin hen\u00fcz yok olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 da ortaya koymaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n

En nihayetinde, e\u011fer Irak Federal Mahkemesi KYB\u2019ye kar\u015f\u0131 bir karar al\u0131rsa bu durum s\u00fcrpriz olacakt\u0131r. \u0130ran yanl\u0131s\u0131 akt\u00f6rlerinin mahkeme \u00fczerindeki etkisi s\u0131r de\u011fil. Sonu\u00e7ta, mahkemenin IKBY\u2019deki az\u0131nl\u0131k kotalar\u0131yla ilgili olarak KYB lehine verdi\u011fi \u00f6nceki kararlar, KDP\u2019nin kotalar \u00fczerindeki hakimiyetini zay\u0131flatm\u0131\u015f ve Kerk\u00fck ile ilgili al\u0131nacak karara \u00f6nemli bir \u0131\u015f\u0131k tutmu\u015ftur.<\/p>\n

KYB ve \u0130ran destekli g\u00fc\u00e7lerin Kerk\u00fck\u2019teki etkisini az\u0131msamak ve KDP ile T\u00fcrkmenleri idari sistemin d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda b\u0131rakmak, her iki taraf i\u00e7in de \u00f6nemli bir kay\u0131p olman\u0131n yan\u0131nda T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin \u015fehirdeki etkisini de s\u0131n\u0131rlayacakt\u0131r. Bu nedenle, T\u00fcrkmenler, KDP ve S\u00fcnnilerin KYB\u2019li Kerk\u00fck valisi ile birlikte \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131, \u015fehirdeki \u0130ran etkisini dengeleme \u00e7abalar\u0131na katk\u0131da bulunsa da bu etkinin olduk\u00e7a s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kalmas\u0131 muhtemeldir.<\/p>\n<\/div>

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