{"id":37879,"date":"2024-10-15T16:24:37","date_gmt":"2024-10-15T13:24:37","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/2024\/10\/15\/hasan-nasrallahin-olumu-iranin-misillemesi-ve-israilin-kurguladigi-yeni-duzen\/"},"modified":"2024-10-15T16:24:38","modified_gmt":"2024-10-15T13:24:38","slug":"hasan-nasrallahin-olumu-iranin-misillemesi-ve-israilin-kurguladigi-yeni-duzen","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/2024\/10\/15\/hasan-nasrallahin-olumu-iranin-misillemesi-ve-israilin-kurguladigi-yeni-duzen\/","title":{"rendered":"Hasan Nasrallah’\u0131n \u00d6l\u00fcm\u00fc, \u0130ran’\u0131n Misillemesi ve \u0130srail’in Kurgulad\u0131\u011f\u0131 ‘Yeni D\u00fczen\u2019"},"content":{"rendered":"

(Bu metin \u0130ngilizce orijinal versiyonundan terc\u00fcme edilmi\u015ftir.)<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\u0130ran, 1 Ekim gecesi \u0130srail’e ikinci kez balistik ve hipersonik<\/a> f\u00fczelerle do\u011frudan bir sald\u0131r\u0131da bulundu. Bununla birlikte, bu sald\u0131r\u0131 Tahran’\u0131n Nisan 2024’te ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirdi\u011fi bir \u00f6nceki sald\u0131r\u0131dan belirgin bir \u015fekilde farkl\u0131yd\u0131 ve Tel Aviv’in hava savunma sistemleri sald\u0131r\u0131n\u0131n yo\u011funlu\u011fu g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcne al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, f\u00fczelerin baz\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 engelleyemedi\u011fi i\u00e7in \u0130srail’de daha y\u00fcksek oranda bir y\u0131k\u0131ma yol a\u00e7t\u0131. Bir \u00f6nceki sald\u0131r\u0131dan farkl\u0131 olarak \u0130ran bu kez 200’e yak\u0131n geli\u015fmi\u015f f\u00fcze kulland\u0131 ve bu f\u00fczeler \u0130srail’in farkl\u0131 b\u00f6lgelerine yaln\u0131zca 12 dakika<\/a> i\u00e7inde ula\u015ft\u0131. \u00dcstelik, \u0130ranl\u0131 yetkililer sald\u0131r\u0131n\u0131n ba\u015flamas\u0131ndan k\u0131sa bir s\u00fcre \u00f6nce ABD ve Rusya’y\u0131 bilgilendirdiklerini iddia etseler de ABD D\u0131\u015fi\u015fleri Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u0130ran’\u0131n iddias\u0131n\u0131 yalanlad\u0131<\/a>. Bu durum, \u0130ran’\u0131n son sald\u0131r\u0131s\u0131yla m\u00fcttefiklerinin g\u00f6z\u00fcnde g\u00fcvenilirli\u011fini ve d\u00fc\u015fmanlar\u0131n\u0131n g\u00f6z\u00fcnde cayd\u0131r\u0131c\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 yeniden tesis etmek amac\u0131yla Nisan ay\u0131ndaki bir \u00f6nceki sald\u0131r\u0131dan daha b\u00fcy\u00fck bir zarar vermek istedi\u011fini a\u00e7\u0131k\u00e7a g\u00f6steriyor. Ayr\u0131ca Pentagon, \u0130ran sald\u0131r\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n Nisan ay\u0131ndaki bir \u00f6nceki sald\u0131r\u0131n\u0131n iki kat\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde<\/a> oldu\u011fu y\u00f6n\u00fcnde a\u00e7\u0131klamalar yapt\u0131. \u00a0\u00a0\u00dcstelik sald\u0131r\u0131n\u0131n yeralt\u0131ndaki tesislerden ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirilmi\u015f olmas\u0131 b\u00f6yle bir operasyon i\u00e7in \u00f6nceden istihbarat toplaman\u0131n zorlu\u011fu nedeniyle \u0130ran’\u0131n \u0130srail’e daha a\u011f\u0131r bir darbe indirmesine yard\u0131mc\u0131 oldu. Sald\u0131r\u0131n\u0131n \u0130ran Y\u00fcksek G\u00fcvenlik Konseyi taraf\u0131ndan onaylanmas\u0131<\/a> da dikkat \u00e7ekicidir ve bu durum da \u0130ran devletinin sald\u0131r\u0131 konusunda mutabakat\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6stermektedir.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\u0130ranl\u0131 yetkililer, sald\u0131r\u0131n\u0131n Hamas lideri \u0130smail Haniye, L\u00fcbnan Hizbullah\u0131 Genel Sekreteri Hasan Nasrallah ve Beyrut’un Dahiye b\u00f6lgesinde Nasrallah ile birlikte ayn\u0131 \u0130srail sald\u0131r\u0131s\u0131nda \u00f6ld\u00fcr\u00fclen \u0130ran Devrim Muhaf\u0131zlar\u0131 Komutan\u0131 Abbas Nilfuru\u015fan\u2019\u0131n \u00f6ld\u00fcr\u00fclmesine misilleme olarak ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirildi\u011fini a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Erozyona U\u011frayan \u0130ran Cayd\u0131r\u0131c\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131<\/strong><\/p>\n

7 Ekim’den itibaren, \u0130srail’in \u0130ran Devrim Muhaf\u0131zlar\u0131 yetkililerinin yan\u0131 s\u0131ra Tahran\u2019\u0131n b\u00f6lgedeki devlet d\u0131\u015f\u0131 silahl\u0131 vekillerini de hedef alan sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131 nedeniyle \u0130ran’\u0131n cayd\u0131r\u0131c\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 ciddi anlamda zarar g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Ancak, Tahran i\u00e7in hi\u00e7bir \u015fey L\u00fcbnan Hizbullah\u0131 Genel Sekreteri Hasan Nasrallah’\u0131n Tel Aviv’in ‘Yeni D\u00fczen<\/a>‘ olarak adland\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir \u0130srail operasyonunda \u00f6ld\u00fcr\u00fclmesinden daha a\u011f\u0131r olamazd\u0131. Nasrallah suikast\u0131 sonras\u0131nda \u0130ran k\u00f6\u015feye s\u0131k\u0131\u015farak \u0130srail’e misilleme yapmak zorunda kald\u0131. Aksi takdirde, \u0130ran’\u0131n devlet d\u0131\u015f\u0131 m\u00fcttefiklerinin g\u00f6z\u00fcndeki g\u00fcvenilirli\u011fi daha da a\u015f\u0131nacak ve \u00fclkenin ‘ileri savunma’ <\/a>doktrini tehlikeye girecekti. Daha da k\u00f6t\u00fcs\u00fc, \u0130ran topraklar\u0131n\u0131n hedef al\u0131nmas\u0131 Tel Aviv i\u00e7in sadece bir zaman meselesi olacakt\u0131.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\u0130ran’\u0131n son sald\u0131r\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan \u0130ranl\u0131 yetkililerin yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamalar Tahran’\u0131n b\u00f6lgede h\u00e2l\u00e2 daha b\u00fcy\u00fck bir sava\u015ftan ka\u00e7\u0131nmak istedi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Bu durum daha \u00f6nce \u0130ran’\u0131n yeni Cumhurba\u015fkan\u0131 Mesud Peze\u015fkiyan’\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131nda<\/a> da kendini g\u00f6stermi\u015fti. Cumhurba\u015fkan\u0131 Peze\u015fkiyan \u015fimdiye kadar yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamalarda Bat\u0131 ile nispeten iyi say\u0131labilecek\/i\u015flevsel bir ili\u015fkiye sahip olma arzusunu ortaya koydu. Dahas\u0131, Peze\u015fkiyan yak\u0131n tarihli bir ses kayd\u0131nda<\/a> \u0130srail’in de silah b\u0131rakmay\u0131 kabul etmesi \u015fart\u0131yla \u0130ran’\u0131n silah b\u0131rakmaya haz\u0131r oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Buna kar\u015f\u0131n, son sald\u0131r\u0131s\u0131yla Tahran’\u0131n bl\u00f6f yapmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 anla\u015f\u0131l\u0131yor. Tel Aviv’in durmamas\u0131 ve \u0130ran topraklar\u0131nda do\u011frudan Tahran\u2019a ya da \u00f6rne\u011fin L\u00fcbnan’da \u0130ran vekillerine a\u011f\u0131r darbeler indirmeye devam etmesi halinde, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n \u0130srail ile b\u00fcy\u00fck bir b\u00f6lgesel sava\u015f\u0131 ve \u0130srail\u2019le a\u00e7\u0131k u\u00e7lu bir \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmaya girmeyi g\u00f6ze ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 anla\u015f\u0131l\u0131yor. \u0130srail’in \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n sald\u0131r\u0131na yapaca\u011f\u0131 misillemenin \u00f6l\u00e7e\u011fi, devam etmekte olan sava\u015f\u0131n y\u00f6r\u00fcngesini belirleyecektir.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

L\u00fcbnan’daki Vahim Durum<\/strong><\/p>\n

Hasan Nasrallah’\u0131n 27 Eyl\u00fcl’de \u0130srail taraf\u0131ndan \u00f6ld\u00fcr\u00fclmesi L\u00fcbnan tarihinin en dramatik olaylar\u0131ndan biri olarak tarihe ge\u00e7ecek gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Genel Sekreter, \u0130srail’in Hizbullah kararg\u00e2h\u0131 oldu\u011funu iddia etti\u011fi bir t\u00fcnelde \u00fcst d\u00fczey askeri komutanlarla birlikte \u00f6ld\u00fcr\u00fcld\u00fc. Sald\u0131r\u0131da 85 ton<\/a> a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131\u011f\u0131nda s\u0131\u011f\u0131nak bombalar\u0131 kullan\u0131ld\u0131. Y\u00fczlerce ki\u015finin \u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcne yol a\u00e7t\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fclen sald\u0131r\u0131 sonucunda alt\u0131 bina yerle bir oldu. Nasrallah’\u0131n \u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fc son birka\u00e7 on y\u0131ld\u0131r b\u00f6lgede ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen en \u00f6nemli siyasi suikast olarak de\u011ferlendirilebilir. Hizbullah\u2019\u0131n L\u00fcbnan siyasi sahnesindeki s\u0131k\u0131 kontrol\u00fc, \u0130ran destekli \u00f6rg\u00fctler i\u00e7in Hizbullah\u2019\u0131n rol model yap\u0131s\u0131, \u00f6zellikle de Kas\u0131m S\u00fcleymani suikast\u0131 sonras\u0131nda m\u00fcttefiklere verilen e\u011fitim ve koordinasyon yetenekleri, \u00f6rg\u00fct\u00fcn \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n askeri yap\u0131s\u0131ndaki ve 2011 Suriye \u0130\u00e7 Sava\u015f\u0131\u2019ndan beri devam eden etkisi g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcne al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen son sald\u0131r\u0131 El Kaide liderleri Usame bin Ladin ve Eymen Ez-Zevahiri ile I\u015e\u0130D lideri Ebu Bekir El-Ba\u011fdadi\u2019nin \u00f6ld\u00fcr\u00fclmesinden bile daha kayda de\u011fer oldu\u011fu ortadad\u0131r.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\u00d6zetle s\u00f6ylenecek olursa, Nasrallah Hizbullah\u2019\u0131n v\u00fccut bulmu\u015f haliydi. Arkas\u0131nda doldurulmas\u0131 neredeyse imk\u00e2ns\u0131z bir bo\u015fluk b\u0131rakt\u0131. Nasrallah\u2019\u0131n karizmas\u0131, dini bilgisi ve Beyrut\u2019un 1982\u2019de \u0130srail taraf\u0131ndan i\u015fgaline kar\u015f\u0131 verdi\u011fi m\u00fccadeledeki sava\u015f stratejileri onu L\u00fcbnan siyasetinin en kritik oyuncular\u0131ndan biri h\u00e2line getirdi. Hizbullah\u2019\u0131n y\u00f6netiminde oldu\u011fu d\u00f6nemde, yap\u0131n\u0131n askeri g\u00fcc\u00fc L\u00fcbnan siyasetinde bir vesayete d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015ferek n\u00fcfuzunu giderek art\u0131rd\u0131. Nasrallah, Hizbullah\u2019tan onlarca ki\u015finin \u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcne ve iki binden fazla ki\u015finin yaralanmas\u0131na sebep olan s\u0131ra d\u0131\u015f\u0131 bir \u00e7a\u011fr\u0131 cihaz\u0131 sald\u0131r\u0131s\u0131ndan<\/a> tam bir hafta sonra \u00f6ld\u00fcr\u00fcld\u00fc. Ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen suikastlar ve yap\u0131 i\u00e7indeki ileti\u015fim hatlar\u0131n\u0131n kesilmesi ile vurulan a\u011f\u0131r darbelerden sonra, Hizbullah \u015fimdi bir d\u00fczensizlik h\u00e2linde. \u00d6rg\u00fct\u00fcn y\u00f6netici kadrosu<\/a> \u0130srail sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131nda neredeyse tamamen ortadan kald\u0131r\u0131ld\u0131. Ve k\u0131sa s\u00fcrede toparlanmak Hizbullah i\u00e7in m\u00fcmk\u00fcn g\u00f6r\u00fcnm\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Bunun yan\u0131 s\u0131ra \u0130srail, Hizbullah\u2019\u0131n silah kapasitesine b\u00fcy\u00fck zarar verdi\u011fini iddia ediyor ki baz\u0131 analistler yap\u0131n\u0131n silah kapasitesinin yar\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n yok edildi\u011fini dahi ileri s\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Ancak, Hizbullah bu iddialar\u0131 ink\u00e2r etmekte. Buna ek olarak, \u0130srail\u2019in \u00f6rg\u00fcte ciddi manada s\u0131zmas\u0131 yap\u0131n\u0131n \u00fcyeleri, aras\u0131nda ciddi bir g\u00fcvensizlik ortam\u0131 yaratm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. \u0130srail’in L\u00fcbnan’da g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir istihbarat a\u011f\u0131na sahip oldu\u011funun g\u00f6r\u00fclmesi, Hizbullah i\u00e7in b\u00fcy\u00fck bir g\u00fcvenlik ve istihbarat zafiyetine yol a\u00e7m\u0131\u015ft\u0131r.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Bu duruma ra\u011fmen Hizbullah, \u0130srail birliklerinin bir s\u0131zma giri\u015fimini<\/a> pusu kurarak engelledi\u011fine dair a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc \u00fczere, \u0130srail sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131na kalan kapasitesiyle kar\u015f\u0131 koymaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131yor. Bununla birlikte, mevcut g\u00fcvensizlik seviyesi nedeniyle yap\u0131 i\u00e7inde ayr\u0131lmalar veya b\u00f6l\u00fcnmeler ya\u015fanmas\u0131 muhtemel. \u00dcstelik, L\u00fcbnan’daki hassas siyasi denge de \u0130srail sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131 nedeniyle tehdit alt\u0131nda. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki d\u00f6nemde \u0130srail’in sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n daha da \u015fiddetlenmesi halinde L\u00fcbnan’daki farkl\u0131 siyasi yap\u0131lar\u0131n Nasrallah’\u0131n \u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fcn yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131 bo\u015fluktan yararlanarak iktidar m\u00fccadelesine giri\u015fmesi uzak bir senaryo olmayabilir. L\u00fcbnan’daki siyasi stat\u00fckoya meydan okuma giri\u015fimleri \u00fclkede yeni kabuslara yol a\u00e7abilir.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\u0130srail’in L\u00fcbnan’a y\u00f6nelik sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131 bug\u00fcne kadar y\u00fczlerce sivilin<\/a> hayat\u0131na mal oldu. Bu ac\u0131mas\u0131z sald\u0131r\u0131lar ayn\u0131 zamanda yakla\u015f\u0131k bir milyon insan\u0131n<\/a> yerinden edilmesine yol a\u00e7t\u0131, ki bu say\u0131 L\u00fcbnan h\u00fck\u00fcmeti i\u00e7in ba\u015fa \u00e7\u0131k\u0131lmas\u0131 imk\u00e2ns\u0131z bir rakam. L\u00fcbnan zaten \u00e7ok a\u011f\u0131r bir siyasi ve ekonomik kriz i\u00e7erisindeydi. \u00dclke ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz y\u0131llarda \u00e7ok ciddi bir ekonomik krizden muzdaripti. Bu noktalara ek olarak, 2020 y\u0131l\u0131nda Beyrut Liman\u0131’nda meydana gelen patlama ekonomik altyap\u0131y\u0131 tahrip etmi\u015f ve bu durum ekonomik krizi daha da derinle\u015ftirmi\u015ftir. Dahas\u0131, L\u00fcbnan’daki mevcut h\u00fck\u00fcmet bir ge\u00e7ici <\/a>h\u00fck\u00fcmet. Bundan daha da k\u00f6t\u00fcs\u00fc, \u00fclke neredeyse \u00fc\u00e7 y\u0131ld\u0131r cumhurba\u015fkan\u0131 se\u00e7emiyor<\/a>.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

T\u00fcm bu sorunlar\u0131n \u00fczerine bir de 7 Ekim ve Hamas’\u0131n Aksa Tufan\u0131 Operasyonu eklendi. Nasrallah’\u0131n konu\u015fmalar\u0131na g\u00f6re, L\u00fcbnan Hizbullah\u0131 operasyon hakk\u0131nda \u00f6nceden bilgilendirilmedi<\/a>. Ne var ki, 8 Ekim’den itibaren Hizbullah Gazze’ye bir ‘destek cephesi’<\/a> a\u00e7arak sava\u015fa kat\u0131ld\u0131. Beklentilere ve \u00fczerindeki bask\u0131ya ra\u011fmen Hizbullah, 2006 y\u0131l\u0131nda \u0130srail ile ya\u015fad\u0131\u011f\u0131 sava\u015ftan ders \u00e7\u0131kararak en ba\u015ftan itibaren sava\u015fa t\u00fcm g\u00fcc\u00fcyle m\u00fcdahil olmayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131k\u00e7a g\u00f6sterdi. 2006’daki Temmuz Sava\u015f\u0131 L\u00fcbnan’da a\u011f\u0131r bir y\u0131k\u0131ma sebep oldu\u011fundan, Hizbullah 7 Ekim sonras\u0131ndaki bir y\u0131lda benzer bir senaryoyla kar\u015f\u0131la\u015fmaktan ka\u00e7\u0131nmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fc. Nasrallah, Gazze’de bir ate\u015fkes anla\u015fmas\u0131na var\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda Hizbullah ile \u0130srail aras\u0131ndaki \u2018y\u0131pratma sava\u015f\u0131n\u0131n\u2019 sona erece\u011fini bir\u00e7ok kez dile getirmi\u015ftir. Ancak iki taraf aras\u0131ndaki geleneksel angajman kurallar\u0131 zamanla a\u015f\u0131nd\u0131 ve Hizbullah, daha \u00f6nce kullanmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 uzun menzilli f\u00fczelerle Hayfa<\/a>‘y\u0131 vurup \u0130srail\u2019e kay\u0131plar verdirmi\u015f oldu.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz d\u00f6nemde, \u0130srail hi\u00e7bir k\u0131rm\u0131z\u0131 \u00e7izgi tan\u0131mad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 t\u00fcm d\u00fcnyaya g\u00f6sterdi. B\u00f6ylece hem Hamas hem de Hizbullah liderlerine y\u00f6nelik \u00e7ok \u00fcst d\u00fczey suikastlar ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirdi. Gazze’yi yerle bir ederek b\u00f6lgeyi ya\u015fanmaz bir yer h\u00e2line getirdi. On y\u0131llard\u0131r Hizbullah\u2019a yat\u0131r\u0131m yapan \u0130ran, yap\u0131y\u0131 kaybedilemeyecek ve ciddi zarar g\u00f6remeyecek kadar k\u0131ymetli buluyordu. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla Tahran, Hizbullah’\u0131n \u0130srail ile topyek\u00fbn bir sava\u015fa s\u00fcr\u00fcklenmesini de istemedi ve 2020’de \u0130ran Devrim Muhaf\u0131zlar\u0131 Ordusu Kud\u00fcs G\u00fcc\u00fc Komutan\u0131 Kas\u0131m S\u00fcleymani’nin Irak’ta ABD taraf\u0131ndan \u00f6ld\u00fcr\u00fclmesinden bu yana kulland\u0131\u011f\u0131 ‘stratejik sab\u0131r<\/a>‘ konseptinden faydaland\u0131. Buna ra\u011fmen stratejik sab\u0131r konsepti, \u0130srail\u2019in s\u0131n\u0131r tan\u0131mayan sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131 ve Netanyahu h\u00fck\u00fcmetinin Gazze’de Netanyahu’nun ba\u015fbakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n sonunu getirebilecek bir ate\u015fkes anla\u015fmas\u0131ndan ka\u00e7\u0131nma konusundaki inat\u00e7\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 nedeniyle i\u015fe yaramad\u0131. Binyamin Netanyahu, \u00fcst d\u00fczey suikastlar d\u00fczenleyerek gerilimi daha \u00f6nce g\u00f6r\u00fclmemi\u015f bir boyuta ta\u015f\u0131yarak iki taraf aras\u0131ndaki angajman kurallar\u0131n\u0131 efektif bir \u015fekilde de\u011fi\u015ftirdi.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Sonu\u00e7 olarak, \u0130ran ciddi bir ikilemle kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya kald\u0131: Sava\u015fa m\u00fcdahil olmak ya da k\u00f6\u015fede beklemek. Her iki se\u00e7imin de ciddi sonu\u00e7lar\u0131 olacakt\u0131. Tahran gerilimi art\u0131rmay\u0131 se\u00e7ti. Asl\u0131na bak\u0131l\u0131rsa Tahran, Tel Aviv’in s\u00f6zde ‘s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 ve yerel’ <\/a>bir i\u015fgalle G\u00fcney L\u00fcbnan’\u0131 i\u015fgal etme niyetini a\u00e7\u0131k\u00e7a ortaya koydu\u011fu bir d\u00f6nemde sava\u015fa m\u00fcdahil olmak ve \u0130srail’i daha fazla y\u0131k\u0131c\u0131 ad\u0131m atmaktan cayd\u0131rmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmak zorundayd\u0131. Aksi takdirde, L\u00fcbnan Hizbullah\u0131 varolu\u015fsal bir sorunla kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya kalabilirdi (\u0130srail’in verece\u011fi yan\u0131ta ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak Hizbullah bu senaryoyla h\u00e2l\u00e2 kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya kalabilir). Bu ayn\u0131 zamanda Tahran’\u0131n m\u00fcttefik a\u011f\u0131ndaki g\u00fcvenilirli\u011fini de azaltacak ve \u0130ran i\u00e7in son derece tats\u0131z ve telafi edilemeyecek bir ger\u00e7eklik yaratacakt\u0131.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\u0130srail h\u00e2lihaz\u0131rda G\u00fcney L\u00fcbnan’daki sivilleri yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 sald\u0131r\u0131larla yerinden etmeye devam ediyor. L\u00fcbnan’\u0131n ba\u015fkenti Beyrut ve \u00fclkenin di\u011fer b\u00f6lgelerinin yan\u0131 s\u0131ra Suriye’nin<\/a> baz\u0131 b\u00f6lgelerine s\u0131\u011f\u0131nan yakla\u015f\u0131k bir milyon ki\u015fi, \u015fiddetli sald\u0131r\u0131lar nedeniyle yerlerinden edildi. Ayr\u0131ca Tel Aviv, bir yandan Hizbullah\u2019\u0131n silah kapasitesinden geriye kalanlar\u0131 imha ederek kendi kara harek\u00e2t\u0131n\u0131n en az\u0131ndan Litani Nehri’ne ula\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7maya \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131yor. \u0130srail, \u0130ran’\u0131n son sald\u0131r\u0131s\u0131na kadar kendisini olduk\u00e7a g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc say\u0131yordu. Tel Aviv uluslararas\u0131 alanda izole edilmesine ra\u011fmen L\u00fcbnan’a tam te\u015fekk\u00fcll\u00fc bir sava\u015f a\u00e7ma me\u015fruiyetine sahip oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyordu ki \u0130srail\u2019in giderek artan izolasyonu, Netanyahu’nun son BM konu\u015fmas\u0131nda, konu\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131 yapmak \u00fczere k\u00fcrs\u00fcye geldi\u011finde bir\u00e7ok \u00fclkenin temsilcisinin salonu terk etmesiyle<\/a> net bir \u015fekilde g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Tel Aviv, \u0130srail\u2019in kuzeyindeki mevcut durumu varolu\u015fsal g\u00f6r\u00fcyor. \u0130sraillilerin bu b\u00f6lgelere geri d\u00f6nmesi Tel Aviv i\u00e7in olmazsa olmaz. Yerle\u015fimcilerin bo\u015faltt\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir Kuzey \u0130srail senaryosu, Hizbullah ve \u0130ran’a toprak kaybetmekle e\u015fde\u011fer. Bu vaziyet, b\u00f6lge \u00fclkelerinin \u0130srail’le y\u00fczle\u015fme konusundaki isteksizli\u011fi ve uluslararas\u0131 toplumun Tel Aviv’e cayd\u0131r\u0131c\u0131 yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar uygulayamamas\u0131yla birle\u015fti\u011finde, \u0130srail\u2019i d\u00fczenledi\u011fi sald\u0131r\u0131larda giderek daha ac\u0131mas\u0131z bir h\u00e2le getirdi.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

K\u0131sacas\u0131 b\u00f6lge tarihi g\u00fcnlerden ge\u00e7iyor. 7 Ekim’den bu yana Gazze, L\u00fcbnan, Yemen, Irak, ve k\u0131smen Suriye alev alm\u0131\u015f vaziyette. B\u00f6lge ger\u00e7ekten de ‘yeni bir d\u00fczenin’ \u015fafa\u011f\u0131nda olabilir. Bu d\u00fczenin \u0130srail’in arzulad\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u015fekilde olup olmayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ise zaman g\u00f6sterecek.<\/p>\n<\/div>

<\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"","protected":false},"author":57,"featured_media":37853,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","ngg_post_thumbnail":0},"categories":[364],"tags":[],"asf_pub_issue":[10313],"asf_pub_region":[17578],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/37879"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/57"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=37879"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/37879\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":37881,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/37879\/revisions\/37881"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/37853"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=37879"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=37879"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=37879"},{"taxonomy":"asf_pub_issue","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/asf_pub_issue?post=37879"},{"taxonomy":"asf_pub_region","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/asf_pub_region?post=37879"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}