{"id":38733,"date":"2026-03-16T13:20:17","date_gmt":"2026-03-16T10:20:17","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/2026\/03\/16\/bolgesel-firtinada-lubnan-hizbullahin-varolus-savasi-ve-israilin-nihai-ve-kesin-zafer-arayisi\/"},"modified":"2026-03-16T13:20:18","modified_gmt":"2026-03-16T10:20:18","slug":"bolgesel-firtinada-lubnan-hizbullahin-varolus-savasi-ve-israilin-nihai-ve-kesin-zafer-arayisi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/2026\/03\/16\/bolgesel-firtinada-lubnan-hizbullahin-varolus-savasi-ve-israilin-nihai-ve-kesin-zafer-arayisi\/","title":{"rendered":"B\u00f6lgesel F\u0131rt\u0131nada L\u00fcbnan: Hizbullah’\u0131n Varolu\u015f Sava\u015f\u0131 ve \u0130srail’in Nihai ve Kesin Zafer Aray\u0131\u015f\u0131"},"content":{"rendered":"

(Bu metin Arap\u00e7a orijinal versiyonundan terc\u00fcme edilmi\u015ftir.)<\/em><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

Amerika Birle\u015fik Devletleri ve \u0130srail, 28 \u015eubat sabah\u0131 \u0130ran\u2019a kar\u015f\u0131 \u0130slam Cumhuriyeti Dini Lideri Ayetullah Ali Hamaney’in suikast\u0131yla ba\u015flayan bir askeri harekata giri\u015ferek ba\u015flang\u0131c\u0131 bilinen, ancak sonu belirsiz olan bir sava\u015f\u0131 ba\u015flatt\u0131lar. Hizbullah \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmaya kat\u0131lmakta gecikmedi. \u0130ran Dini Lideri suikast\u0131n\u0131n resmen a\u00e7\u0131klanmas\u0131ndan sadece bir g\u00fcn sonra, Hizbullah, Hayfa’n\u0131n g\u00fcneyindeki “Mi\u015fmar HaCarmel” b\u00f6lgesine roket ve insans\u0131z hava ara\u00e7lar\u0131yla bir sald\u0131r\u0131 d\u00fczenleyerek \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmaya girdi\u011fini ilan etti. Hizbullah a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131nda, operasyonu “\u0130mam Hamaney’in intikam\u0131n\u0131n al\u0131nmas\u0131 ve L\u00fcbnan’\u0131n savunulmas\u0131” eylemi olarak nitelendirdi.<\/p>\n

Hizbullah’\u0131n m\u00fcdahalesi prensipte \u015fa\u015f\u0131rt\u0131c\u0131 de\u011fildi. Hizbullah, uzun zamand\u0131r \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n merkezi bir uzant\u0131s\u0131, Tahran\u2019\u0131n en \u00f6nde gelen Arap kolu ve y\u0131llarca di\u011fer b\u00f6lgesel cephelerin g\u00f6zetmeni olmu\u015ftur. Bu durum hem ideoloji d\u00fczeyinde do\u011frudur hem de sava\u015f alan\u0131 ger\u00e7eklerini yans\u0131t\u0131r. Hizbullah, \u0130ran’\u0131n \u00e7\u00f6k\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcn asl\u0131nda kendi \u00e7\u00f6k\u00fc\u015f\u00fc anlam\u0131na gelece\u011finin idrakinde. Hizbullah’\u0131n en son isteyece\u011fi \u015fey, \u0130ran rejiminin d\u00fc\u015fmesi ve \u0130srail’in tamamen yap\u0131ya odaklanma ihtimali. Dahas\u0131, \u0130ran’\u0131n kendisinin de sava\u015f\u0131n varolu\u015fsal bir a\u015famas\u0131na girdi\u011fi ve en ba\u015f\u0131ndan itibaren hassas stratejik kozlar\u0131n\u0131 kulland\u0131\u011f\u0131 giderek daha a\u00e7\u0131k bir hale gelmektedir. Bu durum, K\u00f6rfez \u00fclkelerinin, Azerbaycan’\u0131n ve hatta baz\u0131 durumlarda s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bi\u00e7imde de olsa T\u00fcrkiye’nin hedef al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131n h\u0131zlanmas\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fclebilir. Bu nedenle Hizbullah, bu sava\u015f\u0131 hem \u0130ran hem de kendisi i\u00e7in varolu\u015fsal olarak g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla ya \u0130ran’a h\u00e2l\u00e2 yard\u0131mc\u0131 olabilece\u011fi bir anda sava\u015fa m\u00fcdahil olacak ya da herhangi bir hamlenin art\u0131k \u00f6neminin kalmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir zamanda \u0130srail\u2019e kar\u015f\u0131 yaln\u0131z ba\u015f\u0131na m\u00fccadele edecekti.<\/p>\n

Ancak L\u00fcbnan’\u0131n siyasi ve sosyal iklimi Hizbullah’\u0131n sava\u015fa girmesine haz\u0131r de\u011fildi ve \u00e7o\u011fu kesim de b\u00f6yle bir hamleye pek s\u0131cak bakm\u0131yordu. 27 Kas\u0131m 2024’te y\u00fcr\u00fcrl\u00fc\u011fe giren son ate\u015fkesin ard\u0131ndan Hizbullah, daha geni\u015f bir \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmaya girmekten veya \u0130srail’in devam eden ihlallerine kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k vermekten ka\u00e7\u0131nm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. \u0130srail ise, Hizbullah’\u0131n tamamen ve kamuoyuna a\u00e7\u0131k bir \u015fekilde silahs\u0131zland\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131yla birlikte ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmedi\u011fi s\u00fcrece ate\u015fkesi tam olarak uygulamay\u0131 reddetti. Sonu\u00e7 olarak, \u0130srail’in L\u00fcbnan i\u00e7indeki sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131 neredeyse g\u00fcnl\u00fck \u015fekilde devam etti ve bu d\u00f6nemde y\u00fczlerce \u00f6l\u00fcm ya\u015fand\u0131.<\/p>\n

Hizbullah’\u0131n bu s\u00fcre\u00e7 boyunca g\u00f6sterdi\u011fi itidalin yan\u0131 s\u0131ra, ABD ile L\u00fcbnan h\u00fck\u00fcmeti aras\u0131nda L\u00fcbnan’\u0131n daha geni\u015f bir b\u00f6lgesel sava\u015fa m\u00fcdahil olmamas\u0131 konusunda geni\u015f bir g\u00fcvence ortam\u0131 hakimdi. Bu atmosfer, Hizbullah’\u0131n uzun s\u00fcredir m\u00fcttefiki ve siyasi mesajlar\u0131n\u0131n iletilmesinde \u00f6nemli bir kanal olan L\u00fcbnan Meclis Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Nebih Berri’ye atfedilen mesajlarla da peki\u015ftirildi. Bu haz\u0131rl\u0131ks\u0131z i\u00e7 iklim, di\u011fer iki fakt\u00f6rle birlikte Hizbullah’a kar\u015f\u0131 tutumlar\u0131n sertle\u015fmesine katk\u0131da bulundu. Birincisi, Hizbullah Genel Sekreteri Naim Kas\u0131m’\u0131n hamlenin \u0130ran’dan ziyade L\u00fcbnan’a ait oldu\u011funu vurgulamaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmas\u0131na ra\u011fmen, sava\u015fa giri\u015f zamanlamas\u0131yd\u0131. Hizbullah\u2019\u0131n hamlesi L\u00fcbnan\u2019da yayg\u0131n olarak Beyrut\u2019tan ziyade Tahran\u2019\u0131n \u00e7\u0131karlar\u0131na hizmet ediyor \u015feklinde alg\u0131land\u0131. \u0130kincisi, ciddi g\u00fc\u00e7 dengesizli\u011fiydi. \u00dc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc fakt\u00f6r ise Hizbullah’\u0131n operasyonlar\u0131n\u0131n s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 etkisinin fark\u0131nda olmas\u0131na ra\u011fmen -\u00f6zellikle de bu operasyonlar\u0131n ilk g\u00fcnden sonra \u00e7arp\u0131c\u0131 bir \u015fekilde azald\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcne al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda- sava\u015f\u0131 kendi ba\u015f\u0131na ba\u015flatma karar\u0131yd\u0131.<\/p>\n

\u0130\u015fte bu y\u00fczden L\u00fcbnan\u2019daki genel hava Hizbullah’a ve yeni bir sava\u015f ba\u015flatma karar\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 keskin bir \u015fekilde d\u00f6nd\u00fc. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k, L\u00fcbnan h\u00fck\u00fcmeti benzeri g\u00f6r\u00fclmemi\u015f bir karar alarak, Hizbullah’\u0131n t\u00fcm askeri ve istihbari faaliyetlerini derhal ve kapsaml\u0131 bir \u015fekilde yasaklad\u0131, bunlar\u0131 yasad\u0131\u015f\u0131 ilan etti ve \u00f6rg\u00fct\u00fcn rol\u00fcn\u00fc yaln\u0131zca siyasi alanla s\u0131n\u0131rland\u0131rd\u0131. Ordu ve g\u00fcvenlik birimlerine, L\u00fcbnan topraklar\u0131ndan \u0130srail\u2019e herhangi bir askeri operasyonun, roketin veya insans\u0131z hava arac\u0131 sald\u0131r\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6nlenmesi i\u00e7in gerekli t\u00fcm \u00f6nlemleri alma g\u00f6revi verildi. Ayr\u0131ca Litani Nehri’nin kuzeyindeki b\u00f6lgenin silahs\u0131zland\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 plan\u0131n\u0131n “derhal ve kararl\u0131 bir \u015fekilde”, gerekli t\u00fcm ara\u00e7lar kullan\u0131larak uygulanmas\u0131na ve ihlallere kar\u0131\u015fanlar\u0131n tutuklan\u0131p yarg\u0131lanmas\u0131na karar verildi.<\/p>\n

Devletin bu karar\u0131n\u0131n yan\u0131 s\u0131ra, Nebih Berri’nin tutumu da dikkat \u00e7ekiciydi. Bu kez, Emel Hareketi’ne ba\u011fl\u0131 bakanlar\u0131n h\u00fck\u00fcmetin Hizbullah\u2019\u0131n askeri faaliyetlerini yasaklama karar\u0131na itiraz etmemesiyle, \u00f6rg\u00fct\u00fcn \u00e7izgisinden ayr\u0131ld\u0131. Bu, Hizbullah’a L\u00fcbnan i\u00e7inde yeni bir siyasi izolasyon katman\u0131 ekledi.<\/p>\n

Buna ra\u011fmen, \u0130srail L\u00fcbnan devletinin bu hamlesine pek ald\u0131r\u0131\u015f etmedi ve kapsaml\u0131 bir askeri harek\u00e2t ba\u015flatt\u0131. Bu harek\u00e2t, L\u00fcbnan’\u0131n farkl\u0131 b\u00f6lgelerine y\u00f6nelik bir dizi sald\u0131r\u0131yla ba\u015flad\u0131 ve bunu 2024 turunun sona erdi\u011fi noktada \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmay\u0131 fiilen yeniden ba\u015flatan h\u0131zl\u0131 t\u0131rman\u0131\u015f ad\u0131mlar\u0131 izledi. Birka\u00e7 g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde \u0130srail, Litani Nehri’nin g\u00fcneyindeki t\u00fcm b\u00f6lgenin (L\u00fcbnan topraklar\u0131n\u0131n %10’undan fazlas\u0131) bo\u015falt\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 emretti. Bunu, yakla\u015f\u0131k yar\u0131m milyon insan\u0131n ya\u015fad\u0131\u011f\u0131 Beyrut’un g\u00fcney banliy\u00f6leri i\u00e7in neredeyse tamamen bo\u015faltma emirleri ve Beka’daki t\u00fcm k\u00f6yler i\u00e7in tahliye emirleri izledi. Ayr\u0131ca g\u00fcneyde bir kara harek\u00e2t\u0131 ba\u015flat\u0131ld\u0131.<\/p>\n

\u0130srail’in kapsaml\u0131 sald\u0131r\u0131s\u0131, \u00f6nceki t\u00fcm cayd\u0131r\u0131c\u0131l\u0131k form\u00fcllerini alt\u00fcst ederken, Hizbullah \u0130srail\u2019e g\u00fcnl\u00fck olarak t\u0131rman\u0131\u015f g\u00f6steren operasyonlarla kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k verdi. Ayn\u0131 zamanda yap\u0131, \u0130srail’in kara ilerlemelerine kar\u015f\u0131 koymaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015farak, L\u00fcbnan i\u00e7inde konu\u015fland\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f \u0130srail g\u00fc\u00e7lerine kay\u0131plar verdirdi. Bu durum, Naim Kas\u0131m ve yard\u0131mc\u0131s\u0131 Muhammed Raad’\u0131n kamuoyu \u00f6n\u00fcndeki a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131 ve beyanlar\u0131yla birlikte, Hizbullah’\u0131n sava\u015f\u0131n h\u0131z\u0131na ve \u00f6l\u00e7e\u011fine ayak uydurabilecek kapasiteye sahip olmasa da bir dereceye kadar g\u00fcvenli\u011fini ve komuta uyumunu yeniden kazand\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6stermektedir.<\/p>\n

Genel olarak ele al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, \u0130srail’in bug\u00fcne kadarki eylemleri birka\u00e7 farkl\u0131 y\u00f6nde ilerliyor gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Birincisi, L\u00fcbnan’da Hizbullah’\u0131n ve ona ba\u011fl\u0131 yap\u0131lar\u0131n tesisleri ve personeli de dahil olmak \u00fczere yeteneklerinin sistematik olarak hedef al\u0131nmas\u0131d\u0131r. \u0130kincisi, G\u00fcney L\u00fcbnan’dan ba\u015flayan bir kara i\u015fgalidir. \u00dc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fcs\u00fc ise \u015eii toplumsal tabana bask\u0131 uygulamakt\u0131r. Bu hamleler, Hizbullah’a uzun s\u00fcredir verdi\u011fi destek nedeniyle \u015eiileri cezaland\u0131r\u0131rken, onlar\u0131 L\u00fcbnan’\u0131n i\u00e7 toplumsal k\u0131r\u0131lmalar\u0131n\u0131 derinle\u015ftirebilecek belirli y\u00f6nlere itmeyi ama\u00e7lamaktad\u0131r. Bu bahsedilenler \u00fc\u00e7 temel amaca hizmet ediyor gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Birincisi, Hizbullah’\u0131n askeri olarak yok edilmesi veya en az\u0131ndan sosyal ve siyasi olarak par\u00e7alanmas\u0131. \u0130kincisi, L\u00fcbnan’\u0131n i\u00e7 bar\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n yok edilmesi. \u00a0\u00dc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fcs\u00fc, gelecekte L\u00fcbnan devletiyle \u00fczerinde m\u00fczakere etmek ve \u0130srail’in daha geni\u015f b\u00f6lgesel projesine entegre etmek amac\u0131yla, Litani’nin g\u00fcneyindeki b\u00f6lgeyle s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kalmayabilecek yeni L\u00fcbnan topraklar\u0131n\u0131n ele ge\u00e7irilmesi.<\/p>\n

Hizbullah i\u00e7in ise pasiflik, ister \u015fimdi isterse birka\u00e7 ay i\u00e7inde olsun sonu anlam\u0131na gelecektir. Bu nedenle, \u0130ran’daki geli\u015fmeleri beklerken, s\u00fcreklilik ve m\u00fccadeleyi s\u00fcrd\u00fcrme ger\u00e7e\u011fini dayatmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015farak hareket etmeye devam ediyor.<\/p>\n

Bu arada L\u00fcbnan devleti, ayn\u0131 anda iki y\u00f6nde birden hareket etmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015farak, kendini ciddi bir fel\u00e7 durumunda buldu. Birincisi, Hizbullah’\u0131n tamamen silahs\u0131zland\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131na do\u011fru h\u0131zla ilerlemeye haz\u0131r oldu\u011funu i\u015faret etmek. \u0130kincisi ise, Fransa ve M\u0131s\u0131r gibi dost devletleri ate\u015fkes i\u00e7in bask\u0131 yapmaya ve L\u00fcbnan devletine, sadece bir veya iki ay s\u00fcrse bile, Hizbullah’\u0131 silahs\u0131zland\u0131rmak i\u00e7in ek bir f\u0131rsat vermeye te\u015fvik etmek. S\u0131zan bilgiler, Hizbullah’\u0131n kendisinin b\u00f6yle bir senaryoyu reddetti\u011fini, \u0130srail’in de reddetmesinin yan\u0131 s\u0131ra, mevcut an\u0131n Tel Aviv\u2019in L\u00fcbnan’daki emellerini ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirme konusunda nadir bir f\u0131rsat sundu\u011funa inand\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Zira \u0130srail, bu sava\u015f\u0131n L\u00fcbnan\u2019daki son ve belirleyici sava\u015f olmas\u0131n\u0131 istiyor.<\/p>\n

Kesin olan \u015fu ki L\u00fcbnan son ate\u015fkes s\u0131ras\u0131nda h\u00fck\u00fcm s\u00fcren ko\u015fullara geri d\u00f6nmeyecek. Mevcut se\u00e7eneklerin \u00e7o\u011fu art\u0131k radikal nitelikte olup, L\u00fcbnan’\u0131n co\u011frafyas\u0131n\u0131 ve dolay\u0131s\u0131yla demografisini, siyasi ve sosyal d\u00fczenini etkileme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 y\u00fcksektir. S\u00fcrecin \u00f6nemli bir b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fc, L\u00fcbnan sava\u015f alan\u0131ndaki geli\u015fmelere ve daha da \u00f6nemlisi \u0130ran’daki olaylar\u0131n seyrine ba\u011fl\u0131 olacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n<\/div>

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