{"id":38771,"date":"2026-04-01T14:34:45","date_gmt":"2026-04-01T11:34:45","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/2026\/04\/01\/irakin-olumcul-acmazi-direnis-ekseni-mi-bolgesel-entegrasyon-mu\/"},"modified":"2026-04-02T17:14:14","modified_gmt":"2026-04-02T14:14:14","slug":"irakin-olumcul-acmazi-direnis-ekseni-mi-bolgesel-entegrasyon-mu","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/2026\/04\/01\/irakin-olumcul-acmazi-direnis-ekseni-mi-bolgesel-entegrasyon-mu\/","title":{"rendered":"Irak\u2019\u0131n \u00d6l\u00fcmc\u00fcl A\u00e7maz\u0131: Direni\u015f Ekseni mi, B\u00f6lgesel Entegrasyon mu?"},"content":{"rendered":"

ABD ile \u0130srail\u2019in 28 \u015eubat\u2019ta ba\u015flatt\u0131\u011f\u0131 sava\u015f sadece \u0130ran\u2019\u0131 ya da do\u011frudan \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma sahalar\u0131n\u0131 de\u011fil, b\u00f6lgenin en k\u0131r\u0131lgan siyasi sistemlerinden birine sahip olan Irak\u2019\u0131 da yutmaya ba\u015flad\u0131. \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n sava\u015f\u0131 yatay t\u0131rmand\u0131rmayla K\u00f6rfez \u00fclkelerine de yayd\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir ger\u00e7eklikte, t\u00fcm taraflar\u0131n sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131na hedef olan akt\u00f6r Irak. \u00dclke art\u0131k sava\u015f\u0131n ikincil cephelerinden biri. Zira Irak, co\u011frafi konumunun \u00f6tesinde, \u0130ran ile ABD aras\u0131ndaki g\u00fc\u00e7 m\u00fccadelesinin en yo\u011fun ya\u015fand\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00fclke.<\/p>\n

Bu nedenle sava\u015f, Irak i\u00e7in d\u0131\u015fsal bir krizin \u00f6tesinde, do\u011frudan i\u00e7 siyasi dengeleri yeniden \u015fekillendiren bir k\u0131r\u0131lma demek. Sava\u015f\u0131n gidi\u015fat\u0131, Ba\u011fdat y\u00f6netiminin i\u00e7inden \u00e7\u0131kamad\u0131\u011f\u0131 ikilemi derinle\u015ftiriyor. Sava\u015f\u0131n Irak\u2019a yeniden g\u00f6sterdi\u011fi bir ger\u00e7eklik var: \u0130\u00e7eride \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n bask\u0131n n\u00fcfuzunu dengeleme ve milis g\u00fc\u00e7leri kontrol etme gereklili\u011finin yan\u0131 s\u0131ra d\u0131\u015far\u0131da \u00fclke i\u00e7i etnik ve mezhebi farkl\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131 dikkate alarak ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z bir Irak politikas\u0131yla b\u00f6lgesel d\u00fczenin bir par\u00e7as\u0131 olmay\u0131 ama\u00e7lamak. Aksi tercih \u00fclkeyi sadece Washington-Tahran rekabeti ve \u0130ran sava\u015f\u0131n\u0131n do\u011frudan yans\u0131malar\u0131na maruz b\u0131rakmaz, ayn\u0131 zamanda i\u00e7eride daha derin k\u0131r\u0131lganl\u0131k ve d\u0131\u015far\u0131da daha fazla b\u00f6lgesel izolasyona u\u011fram\u0131\u015f bir Irak\u2019a yol a\u00e7abilir.<\/p>\n

\u015eiiler Par\u00e7al\u0131, K\u00fcrtler ve S\u00fcnniler Endi\u015feli<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u0130ran\u2019a y\u00f6nelik sava\u015fta Irak\u2019\u0131n konumu olduk\u00e7a girift ve kendine has bir tabloyla tarif edilebilir. \u0130ran ve \u0130ran destekli Irakl\u0131 milisler, Ba\u011fdat\u2019taki ABD varl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n yan\u0131 s\u0131ra \u00f6zellikle Erbil ba\u015fta olmak \u00fczere Irak K\u00fcrdistan B\u00f6lgesi (IKBY) genelinde ABD\/Bat\u0131 \u00e7\u0131karlar\u0131n\u0131 hedef al\u0131yor. Milisler Pe\u015fmerge \u00fcslerine ve \u0130ran rejim muhalifi K\u00fcrt \u00f6rg\u00fctlere kar\u015f\u0131 sald\u0131r\u0131lar d\u00fczenliyorlar. Ayn\u0131 zamanda bu milisler K\u00f6rfez \u00fclkelerine ve Suriye\u2019ye d\u00f6n\u00fck sald\u0131r\u0131lar d\u00fczenliyorlar. ABD ise Irak\u2019ta milis g\u00fc\u00e7lere y\u00f6nelik ezici vuru\u015flar yap\u0131yor. Erbil y\u00f6netimi ve Arap \u00fclkeleri milis sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n durdurulmas\u0131 i\u00e7in Ba\u011fdat h\u00fck\u00fcmetine sert uyar\u0131lar yap\u0131yor. Ba\u011fdat ise ABD-\u0130ran-IKBY-K\u00f6rfez-milisler hatt\u0131nda b\u00fct\u00fcn taraflar\u0131 teskin etmenin hesab\u0131yla ancak kontrol\u00fc giderek daha da kaybederek \u00fclkenin g\u00fcnbeg\u00fcn sava\u015fa girmesini izliyor.<\/p>\n

Irak\u2019taki siyasi g\u00fc\u00e7lerin sava\u015f kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131ndaki tutumu homojen de\u011fil; aksine, ortada olduk\u00e7a par\u00e7al\u0131 bir tablo s\u00f6z konusu. Sava\u015f\u0131n Irak\u2019a ilk etkisi, halihaz\u0131rda \u00fclkede k\u0131r\u0131lgan olan siyasi denklemin daha da sertle\u015fmesi oldu. \u015eii siyasi bloklar i\u00e7inde \u0130ran\u2019a yak\u0131n gruplar ile daha \u201cIrak merkezli\u201d \u00e7izgi izlemeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015fan akt\u00f6rler aras\u0131ndaki ayr\u0131\u015fma derinle\u015fiyor. \u0130ran\u2019a yak\u0131n \u015eii gruplar sava\u015f\u0131 varolu\u015fsal bir m\u00fccadele olarak \u00e7er\u00e7eveliyor. \u00d6zellikle \u00fclkedeki \u0130ran yanl\u0131s\u0131 gruplar\u0131n domine etti\u011fi milis g\u00fc\u00e7lerin \u00e7at\u0131 yap\u0131lanmas\u0131 Ha\u015fdi \u015eabi<\/a>, sahadaki en kritik akt\u00f6rlerden biri olarak \u0130ran ile olan organik ba\u011flar\u0131 nedeniyle sava\u015f\u0131n do\u011frudan yans\u0131malar\u0131n\u0131 hissediyor. Ba\u011fdat\u2019\u0131n finanse etti\u011fi ve yasal stat\u00fcs\u00fc bulunan Ha\u015fdi \u015eabi i\u00e7indeki baz\u0131 fraksiyonlar, ABD hedeflerine y\u00f6nelik sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rma e\u011filimi g\u00f6sterirken, di\u011fer unsurlar daha kontroll\u00fc bir strateji izliyor. Ha\u015fdi \u015eabi\u2019nin yasal stat\u00fcs\u00fcne ra\u011fmen b\u00fcnyesindeki baz\u0131 milislerin devlet kontrol\u00fc d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda hareket ederek sald\u0131r\u0131lar d\u00fczenlemesi ise Ba\u011fdat\u2019\u0131n etkisizli\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor ve h\u00fck\u00fcmetin a\u00e7maz\u0131n\u0131 derinle\u015ftiriyor. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k, daha pragmatik \u015eii akt\u00f6rler ise \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda kalmay\u0131 \u00f6nceleyen bir s\u00f6ylem geli\u015ftiriyor.<\/p>\n

S\u00fcnni ve K\u00fcrt siyasi akt\u00f6rler ise halihaz\u0131rdaki krizi tehlikeli bir e\u015fik olarak de\u011ferlendirirken, ayn\u0131 zamanda denge f\u0131rsat\u0131 olarak da okuma e\u011filimindeler. Baz\u0131 S\u00fcnni siyasi elitler, do\u011frudan \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmaya s\u00fcr\u00fcklenme riskinden ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131rken, \u0130ran etkisinin zay\u0131flamas\u0131n\u0131 stratejik f\u0131rsat olarak tan\u0131ml\u0131yorlar. \u00a0K\u00fcrt akt\u00f6rler ise ABD\/Bat\u0131’yla yak\u0131n ili\u015fkileri ve \u0130ran ile kom\u015fuluk ba\u011flar\u0131 nedeniyle sava\u015fta tarafs\u0131z ve dengeli bir pozisyon almalar\u0131na ra\u011fmen \u0130ran ve milislerin sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131na maruz kal\u0131yorlar. K\u00fcrt akt\u00f6rler dolay\u0131s\u0131yla krizi endi\u015feyle izliyorlar. \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n zay\u0131flama ihtimali, bu akt\u00f6rlerin Ba\u011fdat\u2019taki g\u00fc\u00e7 payla\u015f\u0131m\u0131nda daha fazla alan talep etmesine zemin haz\u0131rlayabilir. Ancak bu durum ayn\u0131 zamanda mezhepsel ve etnik fay hatlar\u0131n\u0131 daha da k\u0131r\u0131lganla\u015ft\u0131rma riski ta\u015f\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

ABD bu s\u00fcre\u00e7te bir yandan Irak\u2019taki askeri varl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve \u00fcslerini korumaya y\u00f6nelik sald\u0131r\u0131lar d\u00fczenlerken, di\u011fer yandan Irak\u2019\u0131n tamamen \u0130ran yanl\u0131s\u0131 bir cepheye kaymas\u0131n\u0131 engellemek i\u00e7in Ba\u011fdat \u00fczerindeki diplomatik angajman\u0131na \u00f6zen g\u00f6steriyor. Washington sava\u015f\u0131n ilk anlar\u0131ndan bu yana \u00fclkenin pek \u00e7ok b\u00f6lgesinde belli ba\u015fl\u0131 milis karargahlar\u0131n\u0131 hedef ald\u0131 ve Ketaib Hizbullah’tan Ebu Ali el-Askeri<\/a> gibi \u015fahin isimleri de suikastla \u00f6ld\u00fcrd\u00fc. D\u00fc\u015f\u00fck yo\u011funluklu ancak s\u00fcreklilik arz eden bu tablo ABD-Ha\u015fdi \u015eabi gerilimini kal\u0131c\u0131 hale getiriyor. \u015eunu da belirtmekte fayda var ki \u0130ran krizi nedeniyle NATO ge\u00e7ici bir \u00f6nlem olarak Irak’tan t\u00fcm misyonlar\u0131n\u0131 geri \u00e7ekti\u011fini duyurdu.<\/p>\n

Irak Ba\u015fbakan\u0131 Sudani\u2019nin Zor S\u0131nav\u0131<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u0130ran destekli milislerin kontrol edilemez sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131, sava\u015f alan\u0131n\u0131 bulan\u0131kla\u015ft\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131 gibi Erbil-Ba\u011fdat-Tahran hatt\u0131nda kal\u0131c\u0131 etkileri olabilecek siyasi kopu\u015flara zemin haz\u0131rl\u0131yor. Sava\u015f\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131ndan bu yana IKBY topraklar\u0131na be\u015f y\u00fcze yak\u0131n sald\u0131r\u0131<\/a> yap\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 hesap ediliyor. Son olarak IKBY Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Ne\u00e7irvan Barzani\u2019nin Duhok\u2019taki konutuna yap\u0131lan drone sald\u0131r\u0131s\u0131<\/a>, milis sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n herkesi hedef alabilece\u011fi yeni bir tehlikeli e\u015fi\u011fe kap\u0131 aralad\u0131. Irak Ba\u015fbakan\u0131 Muhammed \u015eiya Sudani’nin Barzani\u2019nin konutuna sald\u0131r\u0131y\u0131 k\u0131namas\u0131 \u00f6nemli, ancak milislerin hem b\u00f6lge \u00fclkelerine hem IKBY\u2019ye sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda Ba\u011fdat\u2019\u0131n telefon trafi\u011fi ve yaz\u0131l\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131n\u0131n sahada kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 a\u015fik\u00e2r. Bu durum, h\u00fck\u00fcmetin g\u00fcvenlik mekanizmas\u0131nda kontrol\u00fc b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde yitirdi\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n

Bunun \u00f6tesinde, Suudi Arabistan, BAE, Bahreyn, Katar, Kuveyt ve \u00dcrd\u00fcn\u2019\u00fcn Irak h\u00fck\u00fcmetini \u00fclkelerine sald\u0131ran milisleri durdurmaya \u00e7a\u011f\u0131rmas\u0131<\/a>, \u0130ran destekli milislerin eylemleri nedeniyle Ba\u011fdat\u2019\u0131 sorumluluk almas\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcnde h\u00fck\u00fcmete do\u011frudan ve kolektif bir mesaj olmas\u0131yla dikkat \u00e7ekici. Milislerin sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131, Irak\u2019a sadece ABD\/\u0130srail a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan de\u011fil, Arap \u00fclkelerine de daha fazla maliyet\/tehdit olu\u015fturuyor. Uzun y\u0131llard\u0131r \u015eiilik ile Arap asabiyesi aras\u0131nda s\u0131k\u0131\u015fan Irak\u2019\u0131n, gelinen noktada mevcut sava\u015fla birlikte bunu y\u00f6netemedi\u011fi ve bu a\u00e7maza yeni bir denge ya da y\u00f6n bulmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fi anla\u015f\u0131l\u0131yor. \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n tercih edilerek \u201cdireni\u015f ekseni\u201dnin bir par\u00e7as\u0131 olmas\u0131, b\u00f6lgede Ba\u011fdat\u2019\u0131n etki alan\u0131n\u0131 daraltarak izole olmas\u0131n\u0131 beraberinde getirecek ve \u00fclke i\u00e7inde siyasal \u015eiilikle toplum aras\u0131ndaki makas\u0131 da a\u00e7acak. Irak i\u00e7in b\u00f6lgesel ger\u00e7ekli\u011fi tek \u00fclkeye feda etmek, rasyonalitenin \u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fc.<\/p>\n

Tam bu noktada, Irak Ulusal G\u00fcvenlik Konseyi\u2019nin Anbar vilayetinde ABD sald\u0131r\u0131s\u0131nda 15 milisinin \u00f6ld\u00fcr\u00fclmesinin ard\u0131ndan \u00fclkedeki g\u00fcvenlik g\u00fc\u00e7leri ve kurumlar\u0131n\u0131 hedef alan sald\u0131r\u0131lara kar\u015f\u0131 Ha\u015fdi \u015eabi ve \u00fclkedeki t\u00fcm g\u00fcvenlik g\u00fc\u00e7lerine “me\u015fru m\u00fcdafaa” yetkisi tan\u0131mas\u0131<\/a>, Ba\u011fdat h\u00fck\u00fcmetinin i\u00e7inde bulundu\u011fu s\u0131k\u0131\u015fmaya i\u015faret etmekte. Zira ayn\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamada milislerin diplomatik misyonlara ve devlet kurumlar\u0131na y\u00f6nelik sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131 da k\u0131nan\u0131yor. Elbette, “me\u015fru m\u00fcdafaa yetkisi” i\u00e7 siyasi dinamikleri dengeleme ama\u00e7l\u0131. Yani Ha\u015fdi \u015eabi’nin “kontrol edilemezli\u011fine” me\u015fru bir kap\u0131 aralan\u0131yor. A\u00e7\u0131klamadaki “Sava\u015f ve bar\u0131\u015f karar\u0131 devlete aittir” ifadesi dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, \u00fclke resmi olarak sava\u015fa girmiyor ama milislerin sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131na “kar\u0131\u015fam\u0131yorum” deniyor. Ancak yine a\u00e7\u0131klamada, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n balistik sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131nda \u00f6len alt\u0131 Pe\u015fmerge\u2019ye dair k\u0131nama yap\u0131lmamas\u0131 da hem Tahran hem de Ha\u015fdi \u015eabi\u2019nin tepkilerinin g\u00f6zetildi\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. Milislerin sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131 ve kontrol edilemezli\u011fi, Erbil-Ba\u011fdat g\u00fcven bunal\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 sava\u015ftan sonra daha da derinle\u015ftirecek. \u015e\u00fcphesiz, Sudani milis g\u00fc\u00e7leri bask\u0131lamaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015fsa da i\u00e7 dengelerin alt\u0131nda eziliyor. Ha\u015fdi \u015eabi\u2019nin siyasi uzant\u0131lar\u0131 son se\u00e7imlerde \u00e7ok g\u00fc\u00e7lendi ve \u00fclkede ba\u015fbakan\u0131n belirlenmesi “onlars\u0131z” m\u00fcmk\u00fcn de\u011fil. \u0130ran-ABD dengesini de dikkate almak zorunda olan Sudani, ikinci d\u00f6nem ba\u015fbakanl\u0131\u011fa istekli, ancak sava\u015fla katlan\u0131lamaz hale gelen milis ger\u00e7ekli\u011fi ve Irak\u2019\u0131n iki yol aras\u0131nda s\u0131k\u0131\u015fm\u0131\u015fl\u0131\u011f\u0131 bu i\u015fi olduk\u00e7a karma\u015f\u0131k bir zemine itiyor.<\/p>\n

Irak\u2019\u0131 Ne Bekliyor?<\/strong><\/p>\n

Kas\u0131m 2025\u2019te yap\u0131lan se\u00e7imlere ra\u011fmen \u00fclkede h\u00fck\u00fcmet kurulamad\u0131. Y\u0131llard\u0131r oldu\u011fu gibi h\u00fck\u00fcmet kurma s\u00fcrecinin kronik siyasi krize d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fmesi, milislerin kontrol edilemezli\u011fi ve sava\u015f\u0131n yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u0131\u015f bask\u0131yla birle\u015fti\u011finde \u00fclkede ciddi bir \u201cdevletsizle\u015fme\u201d riski beliriyor. Merkezi otoritenin zay\u0131flamas\u0131 ve ba\u015fbakan\u0131n etkisizli\u011fi, silahl\u0131 gruplar\u0131n daha da otonom hareket etmesine sebebiyet veriyor. Bu durum da Irak\u2019\u0131n par\u00e7al\u0131 bir g\u00fcvenlik mimarisine itilmesini beraberinde getiriyor.<\/p>\n

Erbil ile Ba\u011fdat aras\u0131nda y\u0131llard\u0131r enerji gelirleri, b\u00fct\u00e7e payla\u015f\u0131m\u0131, tart\u0131\u015fmal\u0131 b\u00f6lgeler ve g\u00fcvenlik konular\u0131nda \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fclemeyen krizlere ek olarak IKBY\u2019nin milislerin ve \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n d\u00fczenli hedefi haline gelmesi, Erbil-Ba\u011fdat aras\u0131ndaki g\u00fcven bunal\u0131m\u0131nda kopu\u015fu daha da derinle\u015ftirecektir. \u00d6zellikle sava\u015fla birlikte KDP ile KYB aras\u0131ndaki yak\u0131nla\u015fma dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, IKBY\u2019de iki rakip partinin kontrol etti\u011fi alanlar\u0131n da sald\u0131r\u0131lara maruz kalmas\u0131 i\u00e7 b\u00fct\u00fcnl\u00fc\u011f\u00fc peki\u015ftirecek sonu\u00e7lar do\u011furabilir. Bu krizin ard\u0131ndan art\u0131k daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir K\u00fcrt blo\u011fu g\u00f6rmek \u015fa\u015f\u0131rt\u0131c\u0131 olmayabilir. Ayr\u0131ca, Irak\u2019ta ABD ve \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n yan\u0131 s\u0131ra milis gruplar\u0131n\u0131n IKBY\u2019ye y\u00f6nelik tek tarafl\u0131 sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131yla devam eden ve K\u00fcrtlerin misilleme hakk\u0131n\u0131 sakl\u0131 tutarak \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmadan ka\u00e7\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00fcrecin \u00fclke i\u00e7i bir \u201ci\u00e7 sava\u015fa\u201d d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fme riski de bulunuyor.<\/p>\n

Ba\u011fdat\u2019taki siyasi liderlik somut bir pozisyon benimsemezse \u0130ran sava\u015f\u0131n\u0131n seyrine ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak Irak\u2019\u0131n milisler eliyle sava\u015fa daha yo\u011fun bi\u00e7imde dahil olmas\u0131 ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131lmaz. Bu nedenle Irak h\u00fck\u00fcmeti ve b\u00f6lgesel akt\u00f6rlerin m\u00fcdahalesiyle gerilimin belli bir seviyede tutulmamas\u0131 halinde \u00fclkeyi katmanl\u0131 k\u0131r\u0131lganl\u0131klar bekliyor. Bu durum, Irak\u2019\u0131 sadece sava\u015fa dahil ederek \u00fclkeyi \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma sahas\u0131 yapmayacak, ayn\u0131 zamanda Ba\u011fdat\u2019\u0131n devlet kapasitesini daha da a\u015f\u0131nd\u0131racak sonu\u00e7lar \u00fcretecektir.<\/p>\n

\u00d6te yandan, Irak ekonomisinin ezici \u00e7o\u011funlu\u011fu g\u00fcnl\u00fck \u00fcretti\u011fi yakla\u015f\u0131k 4 milyon varil petrole dayan\u0131yor. \u0130ran merkezli sava\u015f\u0131n H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019nda yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131 krizin enerji g\u00fcvenli\u011fi ve ticaret hatlar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan yeni aray\u0131\u015flar\u0131 beraberinde getirmesiyle \u00fclke petrol\u00fcn\u00fc neredeyse satamayacak hale geldi. \u00dclkedeki g\u00fcvenlik ve siyasi k\u0131r\u0131lganl\u0131\u011fa ekonomik yoksunlu\u011fun da eklenmesi bir felaket senaryosu. Milislerin kontrol alt\u0131na al\u0131nmamas\u0131 veya sava\u015fa tamamen angaje olmas\u0131, \u00fclkeyi \u00e7\u00f6k\u00fc\u015fe s\u00fcr\u00fckleyebilir. T\u00fcrkiye\u2013Irak aras\u0131nda \u00f6zellikle bir ekonomi ve enerji hatt\u0131 olacak Kalk\u0131nma Yolu Projesi gibi alternatif koridorlar\u0131n \u00f6nemi bu anlarda ortaya \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz\u2019deki riskin y\u00fckselmesi, Irak i\u00e7in T\u00fcrkiye \u00fczerinden \u00e7e\u015fitlendirilmi\u015f bir ticaret ve enerji g\u00fczerg\u00e2h\u0131 olu\u015fturma ihtiyac\u0131n\u0131 daha acil hale getiriyor. T\u00fcrkiye a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan ise bu s\u00fcre\u00e7, Irak ile ekonomik ve stratejik entegrasyonu derinle\u015ftirmek i\u00e7in \u00f6nemli bir f\u0131rsat sunuyor. \u0130ran’daki sava\u015f\u0131n patlak vermesinin ard\u0131ndan bu konuda olumlu bir ad\u0131m at\u0131ld\u0131. Mart ortas\u0131nda Irak, \u00f6nceki bir hukuki dava nedeniyle \u00fc\u00e7 y\u0131l s\u00fcren bir duraklaman\u0131n ard\u0131ndan T\u00fcrkiye’nin Ceyhan Liman\u0131 \u00fczerinden petrol ihracat\u0131na yeniden ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 duyurdu.<\/p>\n

Sonu\u00e7 olarak, sava\u015f Irak i\u00e7in sadece d\u0131\u015fsal bir kriz de\u011fil, ayn\u0131 zamanda i\u00e7 siyasi yap\u0131n\u0131n, g\u00fcvenlik mimarisinin ve b\u00f6lgesel konumlanman\u0131n test an\u0131. Bu s\u00fcre\u00e7 ya Irak\u2019\u0131 daha derin bir par\u00e7alanmaya ve b\u00f6lgesel olarak izole olmaya s\u00fcr\u00fckleyecek ya da zorunlu bir dengeleme \u00fczerinden yeni bir i\u00e7 siyasi uzla\u015f\u0131n\u0131n kap\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 aralayacak. Ancak mevcut tablo, ikinci ihtimalden ziyade, k\u0131r\u0131lganl\u0131\u011f\u0131n derinle\u015fti\u011fi bir s\u00fcrece i\u015faret ediyor. Irak\u2019\u0131n bu f\u0131rt\u0131nadan nas\u0131l \u00e7\u0131kaca\u011f\u0131 ise yaln\u0131zca Ba\u011fdat\u2019taki siyasi akt\u00f6rlerin de\u011fil, b\u00f6lgesel g\u00fc\u00e7lerin ve k\u00fcresel dengelerin de belirleyece\u011fi bir mesele. Ancak Ba\u011fdat\u2019\u0131n \u00f6ncelikle nerede duraca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 netle\u015ftirmesi gerekiyor.<\/p>\n<\/div>

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