{"id":9328,"date":"2018-10-01T11:49:15","date_gmt":"2018-10-01T08:49:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/?p=9328"},"modified":"2020-08-25T12:45:55","modified_gmt":"2020-08-25T09:45:55","slug":"yemen-bitmemis-devrim","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/2018\/10\/01\/yemen-bitmemis-devrim\/","title":{"rendered":"Yemen: Bitmemi\u015f Devrim"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"\" Leonid M. Issaev<\/a>      <\/i> 01 Ekim 2018<\/span><\/h6><\/div><\/div><\/div>
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\n\t\n\t\t<\/i>\n\t\tPDF olarak indir\t\t\n\t<\/a>\n<\/p>\n<\/h6><\/div><\/div><\/div>

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Rapor<\/a> \/ \/ B\u00d6LGESEL G\u00dcVENL\u0130K<\/a><\/h6><\/div><\/div><\/div>
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Y\u00f6netici \u00d6zeti<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

    \n
  1. Yemen toplumunun 20. y\u00fczy\u0131l\u0131n \u00e7alkant\u0131l\u0131 d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcmleri s\u0131ras\u0131nda hen\u00fcz \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcme kavu\u015fturulamam\u0131\u015f temel sorunlar\u0131ndan biri, a\u015firet ve devlet yap\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131lmaz olarak bir egemenlik \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmas\u0131na yol a\u00e7an kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131kl\u0131 ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131l\u0131k ili\u015fkisiydi.<\/span><\/li>\n
  2. Ha\u015fid adl\u0131 a\u015firetler federasyonu i\u00e7indeki Salih ve Ahmar ailelerinin temsilcileri aras\u0131nda s\u00fcregiden \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar Yemen krizinin en \u00f6nemli fakt\u00f6r\u00fcd\u00fcr. \u00c7at\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131n ise iki e\u011filimi s\u00f6z konusu: a\u015firet elitlerinin artan rol\u00fc ve her ge\u00e7en g\u00fcn artarak derinle\u015fen husumetler.<\/span><\/li>\n
  3. 1970\u2019li y\u0131llar\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131nda Cumhurba\u015fkan\u0131 Abdurrahman \u0130ryani, daha sonra Abdullah Ahmar taraf\u0131ndan uygulanacak olan Yemeni \u201cS\u00fcnnile\u015ftirme\u201d politikas\u0131n\u0131 ba\u015flatt\u0131. S\u00f6z konusu toplumsal m\u00fchendisli\u011fin k\u00f6kleri, 1960\u2019lar\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131nda en g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc a\u015firet federasyonu olan Ha\u015fid\u2019in liderinin ayn\u0131 anda hem Cumhuriyet\u00e7ileri desteklemesi hem de Zeydi Seyyidlerin Kuzey Yemen\u2019deki a\u015firet hiyerar\u015fisi i\u00e7erisinde resmi olarak \u00fcst\u00fcn bir konumda olmas\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 baz\u0131 faaliyetler i\u00e7erisinde olmas\u0131yd\u0131.<\/span><\/li>\n
  4. Vahhabi \u00f6\u011fretisinin Yemen\u2019e a\u015f\u0131lanmas\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki \u00e7abalara; 1995 y\u0131l\u0131nda, Yemen tarihini ve Zeydi itikad\u0131n\u0131n temellerini \u00f6\u011frenmenin sistematik bir rol oynad\u0131\u011f\u0131 Sa’da ilinde, ana misyonu Yemenli gen\u00e7 nesillerin vatansever birer yurtta\u015f olarak yeti\u015ftirilmesi olan \u201c\u0130manl\u0131 Gen\u00e7lik\u201d hareketinin kurulmas\u0131 ile kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k verilmi\u015fti.<\/span><\/li>\n
  5. Zay\u0131f bir siyasi akt\u00f6r olan Hadi, neredeyse hi\u00e7 direni\u015f g\u00f6stermeden Ahmar ailesinin ko\u015ftu\u011fu \u015fartlar\u0131 kendi lehine \u00e7evirip, neticede siyaset arenas\u0131n\u0131 n\u00fcfuzlu ailelerin, daha sonra da bizzat cumhurba\u015fkan\u0131n\u0131n elinden almas\u0131na izin verdi.<\/span><\/li>\n
  6. 2012\u2019nin ba\u015f\u0131ndan itibaren Yemen\u2019de iktidar\u0131n Islah \u00fczerinden Ahmarlar\u0131n elinde tekelle\u015fmeye ba\u015flamas\u0131, t\u00fcm muhalifleri bir cephede toplay\u0131p onlar\u0131 radikal ad\u0131mlar atmaya zorlayarak Genel Halk Kongresi\u2019nin ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131z olmas\u0131na ve Eyl\u00fcl 2014\u2019te San’a\u2019daki iktidar\u0131n ele ge\u00e7irilmesine zemin haz\u0131rlad\u0131.<\/span><\/li>\n
  7. Ulusal Diyalog Konferans\u0131\u2019nda kat\u0131l\u0131mc\u0131lar, 4 ana ba\u015fl\u0131k \u00fczerinde g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f birli\u011fine varmay\u0131 ba\u015faramad\u0131: Bunlar; \u201cSa’da konusu,\u201d \u201cG\u00fcney Yemen konusu,\u201d \u201cge\u00e7i\u015f d\u00f6nemi hukuk sistemi\u201d ve \u201cdevlet yap\u0131s\u0131\u201d \u015feklindeydi.<\/span><\/li>\n
  8. Kuveyt g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeleri ise b\u00fcy\u00fck oranda iki taraf\u0131n birbirinden farkl\u0131 d\u00fcnya vizyonlar\u0131 ve mevcudiyetini s\u00fcrd\u00fcrme hakk\u0131na sahip olma \u0131srar\u0131 nedeniyle ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131z oldu. Fakat San’a\u2019daki yetkililer stat\u00fckoya odaklan\u0131rken, s\u00fcrg\u00fcndeki h\u00fck\u00fcmet tam aksine geriye d\u00f6n\u00fck g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015flerden hareketle 2014\u2019\u00fcn ilk aylar\u0131ndaki stat\u00fckonun onar\u0131lmas\u0131nda \u0131srar etti.<\/span><\/li>\n
  9. Kuveyt\u2019teki g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerde, taraflar\u0131n ge\u00e7ici bir kurumun kurulmas\u0131 ve Husilerin silahs\u0131zland\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 konusundaki temel taleplerinin muhalifler taraf\u0131ndan hi\u00e7bir \u015fekilde reddedilmedi\u011fi bir durum has\u0131l oldu. Fakat yine de neyin \u00f6ncelikli olarak yap\u0131lmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fi \u00fczerinde bir anla\u015fmaya var\u0131lamad\u0131.<\/span><\/li>\n
  10. Ge\u00e7en 3 y\u0131l boyunca Yemen krizinin t\u00fcm kilit parametrelerinde meydana gelen de\u011fi\u015fiklikler, BM G\u00fcvenlik Konseyi\u2019nin 2216 say\u0131l\u0131 Karar\u0131n\u0131n ciddi bir \u015fekilde yeniden g\u00f6zden ge\u00e7irilmesini gerektirmektedir. G\u00fcvenlik Konseyi, Yemen krizini salt Mansur Hadi\u2019nin temsil etti\u011fi \u201cme\u015fru iktidar\u201d ile 2014-2015\u2019te askeri darbe yapan \u201cHusi isyanc\u0131lar\u201d aras\u0131ndaki bir \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma olarak de\u011ferlendirmektedir ki bu, 2018\u2019in ger\u00e7eklikleriyle kesinlikle ba\u011fda\u015fmamaktad\u0131r.<\/span><\/li>\n
  11. Yemen\u2019deki mevcut g\u00fc\u00e7 dengesi (Ali Salih cinayetinden sonra bile) ve Koalisyonun Yemen\u2019de i\u00e7erisinde bulundu\u011fu zorlu ko\u015fullar Mansur Hadi\u2019nin aleyhine i\u015flemektedir. Bu yan\u0131yla zaman, mevcut San\u2019a h\u00fck\u00fcmetinin (Husiler ve Salih) lehine i\u015flemektedir: Hadi; \u00fclkedeki durum \u00fczerinde bir kontrol\u00fc olmayan, s\u00fcrg\u00fcnde ve yaln\u0131zca ka\u011f\u0131t \u00fczerinde bir cumhurba\u015fkan\u0131 olarak ne kadar \u00e7ok g\u00f6revde kal\u0131rsa, uluslararas\u0131 kamuoyunun kendisini Yemen\u2019in me\u015fru cumhurba\u015fkan\u0131 olarak kabul etmesinin de o kadar az nedeni olacakt\u0131r.<\/span><\/li>\n
  12. Yemen yaln\u0131zca k\u00fcresel de\u011fil ayn\u0131 zamanda b\u00f6lgesel anlamda merkez d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda kalm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r ki bu da uluslararas\u0131 kamuoyunun ciddi bir ilgisizli\u011fine neden olmaktad\u0131r.<\/span><\/li>\n
  13. Suudi Arabistan, Yemen krizindeki esas \u201carabulucu\u201d olma g\u00f6revini hi\u00e7bir zaman ba\u015far\u0131yla yerine getirememi\u015ftir. Bunun en b\u00fcy\u00fck nedeni ise Krall\u0131k b\u00fcnyesinde Yemen dosyas\u0131n\u0131 otuz y\u0131ldan fazla bir s\u00fcre y\u00f6netmi\u015f olan Prens Sultan\u2019\u0131n Ekim 2011\u2019de, daha sonra Prens Nayif\u2019in de Haziran 2012\u2019de hayat\u0131n\u0131 kaybetmi\u015f olmas\u0131d\u0131r.<\/span><\/li>\n
  14. Yemen operasyonu Riyad i\u00e7in hi\u00e7bir \u015fekilde s\u0131f\u0131r toplaml\u0131 bir oyun olmad\u0131: aksine Suud ordusu asgari bir program uygulamay\u0131 ba\u015fararak Husilerin \u00fclke \u00e7ap\u0131nda yay\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlamay\u0131 ba\u015fard\u0131.<\/span><\/li>\n
  15. Yemen i\u00e7in temel sorun devletin mevcut s\u0131n\u0131rlar\u0131 dahilinde korunmas\u0131d\u0131r. \u015eimdiye kadar \u00fclkede \u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc yap\u0131s\u0131yla dikkat \u00e7eken bir iktidar kuruldu: t\u00fcm d\u00fcnyan\u0131n tan\u0131d\u0131\u011f\u0131 Mansur Hadi H\u00fck\u00fcmetine ek olarak, Kuzey Yemen Husi \u00f6nc\u00fcl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcndeki Y\u00fcksek Siyaset Konseyi\u2019nin kontrol\u00fc alt\u0131nda bulunmakta ve \u00fclkenin g\u00fcneyinde ise G\u00fcney Yemen\u2019in ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ama\u00e7layan G\u00fcney Ge\u00e7i\u015f Konseyi y\u00f6netimi ele ge\u00e7irmi\u015ftir. Bu sorun Koalisyon i\u00e7indeki b\u00f6l\u00fcnme nedeniyle daha da \u00f6nemli h\u00e2le gelmektedir: BAE G\u00fcney Hareketine, Suudi Arabistan ise Mansur Hadi\u2019ye odaklanmaktad\u0131r.<\/span><\/li>\n
  16. Muhtemel senaryo, Koalisyonun askeri operasyonlar\u0131na makul bir gerek\u00e7eyle son vermesi ve e\u015fzamanl\u0131 olarak Yemen \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n uluslararas\u0131 kamuoyunun kontrol\u00fcnde kapsaml\u0131 \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm\u00fcne y\u00f6nelik bir plan\u0131 benimsemesi ile olacakt\u0131r. Bu, sonu\u00e7 olarak bir ulusal birlik h\u00fck\u00fcmetinin kurulmas\u0131, \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n taraflar\u0131 aras\u0131nda iktidar\u0131n payla\u015f\u0131m\u0131 ve askeri birliklerin San\u2019a ve di\u011fer \u00f6nemli b\u00f6lgelerden \u00e7ekilmesi i\u00e7in gerekli \u015fartlar\u0131 olu\u015fturabilir.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<\/div>
    <\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

    Yemen toplumunun 20. y\u00fczy\u0131l\u0131n \u00e7alkant\u0131l\u0131 d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcmleri s\u0131ras\u0131nda hen\u00fcz \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcme kavu\u015fturulamam\u0131\u015f temel sorunlar\u0131ndan biri, a\u015firet ve devlet yap\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131lmaz olarak bir egemenlik \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmas\u0131na yol a\u00e7an kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131kl\u0131 ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131l\u0131k ili\u015fkisiydi.
    \nHa\u015fid adl\u0131 a\u015firetler federasyonu<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":51,"featured_media":9329,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","ngg_post_thumbnail":0},"categories":[363],"tags":[9816],"asf_pub_issue":[10305],"asf_pub_region":[10321],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9328"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/51"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=9328"}],"version-history":[{"count":8,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9328\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":24754,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9328\/revisions\/24754"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/9329"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=9328"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=9328"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=9328"},{"taxonomy":"asf_pub_issue","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/asf_pub_issue?post=9328"},{"taxonomy":"asf_pub_region","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/asf_pub_region?post=9328"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}