![\"\"](\"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/02\/Mesut-O\u0308zcan-150x150.png\" "\\"\\"")
Mesut Ozcan<\/a> <\/i> 07 Eyl\u00fcl 2017<\/span><\/h6><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div>Uzman G\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fc<\/a> \/ \/ B\u00f6lgesel Politika<\/a><\/h6><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div>\u00d6zet<\/span><\/strong>: K\u00fcrdistan B\u00f6lgesel Y\u00f6netimi\u2019nin (KBY) 25 Eyl\u00fcl 2017 tarihinde ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131k referandumuna gidilece\u011fini a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131, I\u015e\u0130D\u2019e kar\u015f\u0131 operasyonlar\u0131n devam etti\u011fi Irak\u2019ta, K\u00fcrt meselesinin tekrar tart\u0131\u015fmaya a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 sa\u011flad\u0131. KBY, \u00f6nde gelen Irakl\u0131 pek \u00e7ok ismin yan\u0131 s\u0131ra b\u00f6lgesel ve uluslararas\u0131 akt\u00f6rlerin tepkilerine ra\u011fmen, referandum plan ve takvimine sad\u0131k kalmakta \u0131srar ediyor. Son birka\u00e7 y\u0131ld\u0131r b\u00fcy\u00fck siyasi ve ekonomik krizlerin oldu\u011fu b\u00f6lgede, ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131k referandumu asl\u0131nda toplumun farkl\u0131 kesimlerini bir arada tutma y\u00f6ntemi olarak g\u00f6ze \u00e7arp\u0131yor. Tam da b\u00f6yle bir zamanda ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131k referandumunu g\u00fcndeme getirmek, nihayetinde ertelenecek olsa bile Ba\u011fdat\u2019tan, zorlu finansal durum ba\u011flam\u0131nda siyasi ve ekonomik imtiyazlar elde etmek i\u00e7in i\u015fe yarar bir taktik olabilir. Irak\u2019taki K\u00fcrtlerin kaderi, er ya da ge\u00e7 \u00fclkenin siyasi gelece\u011finin bir dengeye varmas\u0131n\u0131 sa\u011flayacak. Neredeyse hi\u00e7 kimse olas\u0131 bir referandumun s\u00f6z konusu meseleyi 25 Eyl\u00fcl g\u00fcn\u00fc birdenbire \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcme kavu\u015fturaca\u011f\u0131na inanmasa da referandumun ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131\u011fa giden yolda \u00f6nemli bir d\u00f6n\u00fcm noktas\u0131 olaca\u011f\u0131na kesin g\u00f6z\u00fcyle bak\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div>Ba\u011fdat ve Irakl\u0131 K\u00fcrtler aras\u0131ndaki sorunlu tarihsel ili\u015fki, Mesud Barzani\u2019nin bir s\u00fcre \u00f6nce Irak\u2019ta K\u00fcrdistan B\u00f6lgesel Y\u00f6netimi\u2019nin (KBY) ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131\u011f\u0131 konusunda 25 Eyl\u00fcl 2017 tarihinde bir referandum yap\u0131laca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131yla yeni bir a\u015famaya girdi. Irak K\u00fcrtlerinin ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131k konusunda geni\u015f bir deste\u011fi oldu\u011funa inan\u0131lsa da di\u011fer K\u00fcrt akt\u00f6rlerinin referandumun zamanlamas\u0131 ve ayn\u0131 zamanda ard\u0131nda yatan niyete ili\u015fkin baz\u0131 ele\u015ftirileri bulunmakta. Irak toplumunun di\u011fer kesimlerinden ve Irakl\u0131 siyasi liderlerden gelen i\u015faretler de olumlu de\u011fil. Ayr\u0131ca b\u00f6lgesel ve uluslararas\u0131 akt\u00f6rler de ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131k talebinden yana g\u00f6r\u00fcnm\u00fcyorlar. Bu etkenler \u0131\u015f\u0131\u011f\u0131nda; Irak\u2019taki di\u011fer K\u00fcrt siyasi akt\u00f6rler, Irakl\u0131 siyasi fig\u00fcrleri ve ayn\u0131 zamanda b\u00f6lgesel ve uluslararas\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lerin \u00e7\u0131karlar\u0131n\u0131 da g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcnde bulundurarak referandumun ger\u00e7ekle\u015fme ihtimalini analiz etmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015fal\u0131m.<\/p>\n
K\u00fcrtlerin ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131k talepleri Osmanl\u0131 \u0130mparatorlu\u011fu\u2019nun da\u011f\u0131lmas\u0131na ve Irak\u2019\u0131n Britanya himayesinde bir devlet olarak ortaya \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131na kadar uzanmaktad\u0131r. 1930\u2019lardan bu yana K\u00fcrtlerin ba\u015fkald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131 hem krall\u0131k (1921-1958) hem de cumhuriyet d\u00f6neminin (1958 ve sonras\u0131) merkezi h\u00fck\u00fcmetleri i\u00e7in \u00e7e\u015fitli sorunlar do\u011furmu\u015ftur. Darbeler ve birbiri ard\u0131na gelen ba\u015fkanlar da d\u00e2hil olmak \u00fczere, her \u00f6nemli siyasi de\u011fi\u015fimde K\u00fcrtler aras\u0131nda kendilerine daha fazla hak tan\u0131naca\u011f\u0131na dair bir umut ye\u015fermi\u015f ve siyasi fig\u00fcrler de bunlar\u0131n ger\u00e7ekle\u015fece\u011fine dair -Mustafa Barzani\u2019nin Sovyetler Birli\u011fi\u2019nden Irak\u2019a geri d\u00f6nmesi y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki \u00e7a\u011fr\u0131 da d\u00e2hil olmak \u00fczere- \u00e7e\u015fitli s\u00f6zler vermi\u015ftir. Bu haklar\u0131n kapsam\u0131 konusunda ya\u015fanan fikir ayr\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131 nedeniyle Ba\u011fdat h\u00fck\u00fcmetleri ve K\u00fcrtler aras\u0131ndaki gerilim y\u0131llar boyunca olduk\u00e7a y\u00fcksek bir tonda seyretmi\u015ftir. 2003 y\u0131l\u0131nda Saddam Rejimi\u2019nin ala\u015fa\u011f\u0131 edilmesinin ard\u0131ndan ortaya \u00e7\u0131kan atmosferde, 1991 sonras\u0131 s\u00fcre\u00e7 ile ba\u015flam\u0131\u015f olan geli\u015fmelerin bir sonucu olarak K\u00fcrtler kendilerini ama\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fck bir \u00e7o\u011funlu\u011funu yerine getirebilecek kadar g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir konumda bulmu\u015flard\u0131r. Esas\u0131nda K\u00fcrtler; bir g\u00fcvenlik g\u00fcc\u00fc, b\u00f6lgesel parlamento ve Irak merkezi h\u00fck\u00fcmetinde \u00f6nemli siyasi pozisyonlara gelme yoluyla ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131k d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda pek \u00e7ok hakka da sahip olmu\u015flard\u0131r. Irakl\u0131 K\u00fcrtler, 2003 y\u0131l\u0131ndan sonra, bir K\u00fcrt\u00fcn Irak Cumhurba\u015fkan\u0131 olmas\u0131 ve ulusal mecliste g\u00f6rev almas\u0131 ile Pe\u015fmerge g\u00fc\u00e7lerinin geni\u015f \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde destek bulmas\u0131yla olduk\u00e7a avantajl\u0131 ko\u015fullar elde etmi\u015flerdir. Ancak Ba\u011fdat\u2019\u0131n merkezile\u015ftirme politikalar\u0131n\u0131n 2000\u2019li y\u0131llar\u0131n son yar\u0131s\u0131nda K\u00fcrtlerin adem-i merkezile\u015fmeye y\u00f6nelik hedefleri ile \u00e7eli\u015fmeye ba\u015flamas\u0131yla ili\u015fkilerin do\u011fas\u0131nda bozulmalar ba\u015flam\u0131\u015ft\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Son birka\u00e7 y\u0131ld\u0131r b\u00fct\u00e7e payla\u015f\u0131m\u0131, g\u00fcvenlik g\u00fc\u00e7leri ve petrol ihracat\u0131 konular\u0131 ba\u015fta olmak \u00fczere Ba\u011fdat ve Erbil aras\u0131nda bir\u00e7ok fikir ayr\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 ya\u015fanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. \u00d6zellikle 2011 y\u0131l\u0131nda ABD\u2019nin g\u00fc\u00e7lerini Irak\u2019tan \u00e7ekmesinin ard\u0131ndan ili\u015fkilerdeki gerginlik daha da hissedilir olmu\u015ftur. K\u00fcrdistan B\u00f6lgesel Y\u00f6netimi\u2019nin kendi petrol\u00fcn\u00fc Irak h\u00fck\u00fcmetinden ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z olarak ihra\u00e7 etmesi talebiyle birlikte, Irak Ba\u015fbakan\u0131 Maliki 2014 y\u0131l\u0131nda KBY\u2019nin b\u00fct\u00e7esinin y\u00fczde 17\u2019sini dondurmu\u015f, bu durum da Barzani taraf\u0131ndan \u201cHalep\u00e7e\u2019ye gaz at\u0131lmas\u0131 kadar k\u00f6t\u00fc bir durum\u201d olarak nitelendirilmi\u015ftir.[1]<\/a> K\u00fcrtler bu konulara ili\u015fkin pazarl\u0131klar\u0131nda Ba\u011fdat\u2019a kar\u015f\u0131 ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131k kart\u0131n\u0131 oynam\u0131\u015f, Ba\u011fdat H\u00fck\u00fcmeti ise ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131\u011fa kar\u015f\u0131 bir koz olarak b\u00fct\u00e7eyi kullanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Irak \u015eam \u0130slam Devleti\u2019nin (I\u015e\u0130D) ortaya \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131 ve Musul\u2019un kontrol\u00fcn\u00fc ele ge\u00e7irmesiyle birlikte, I\u015e\u0130D ile m\u00fccadelenin ivedili\u011fi g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcnde bulundurularak s\u00f6z konusu meseleler bir s\u00fcreli\u011fine ertelenmi\u015ftir.<\/p>\nBa\u011fdat ve Erbil aras\u0131ndaki g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f ayr\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131n yan\u0131 s\u0131ra K\u00fcrdistan B\u00f6lgesel Y\u00f6netimi\u2019ndeki farkl\u0131 K\u00fcrt partileri ve liderleri aras\u0131nda da ciddi uyu\u015fmazl\u0131klar s\u00f6z konusudur. B\u00f6lge parlamentosu son iki y\u0131ld\u0131r toplanmam\u0131\u015ft\u0131r, hatta parlamento s\u00f6zc\u00fcs\u00fc S\u00fcleymaniye\u2019den Erbil\u2019e dahi gelememektedir. T\u00fcm bunlar olurken K\u00fcrdistan Yurtseverler Birli\u011fi (KYB) ve De\u011fi\u015fim Hareketi (Goran) birbiri ard\u0131na gelen i\u00e7 sorunlarla kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya kalm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. KYB lideri Celal Talabani a\u011f\u0131r bir hastal\u0131\u011f\u0131n pen\u00e7esindedir ve parti i\u00e7inde Talabani ailesi, Kosret Resul ve Berhem Salih gibi di\u011fer etkili fig\u00fcrler aras\u0131nda uzla\u015fmazl\u0131klar s\u00f6z konusudur. Bu ko\u015fullar alt\u0131nda, Mesud Barzani\u2019nin ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131k konusunda referandum yap\u0131laca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131 K\u00fcrdistan B\u00f6lgesel Y\u00f6netimi\u2019ndeki muhalif akt\u00f6rler aras\u0131nda farkl\u0131 fikirlerin ortaya \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131na yol a\u00e7m\u0131\u015ft\u0131r.<\/p>\n
KBY\u2019nin \u0130\u00e7 Dinamikleri<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\nIrak K\u00fcrtleri aras\u0131nda hi\u00e7bir grup KBY\u2019nin ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131k konusunda bir referandum yapma hakk\u0131na do\u011frudan kar\u015f\u0131 \u00e7\u0131kmamaktad\u0131r. Ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131k referandumunun yap\u0131laca\u011f\u0131, KBY\u2019nin h\u00e2lihaz\u0131rdaki ba\u015fkan\u0131 Mesud Barzani taraf\u0131ndan a\u00e7\u0131klanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Barzani\u2019nin g\u00f6rev s\u00fcresi sona ermeden \u00f6nce ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131\u011f\u0131 sa\u011flamak yoluyla tarihteki yerini almak istedi\u011fi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fclmektedir. Barzani ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131k i\u00e7in m\u00fckemmel bir zamanlaman\u0131n hi\u00e7bir zaman olmayaca\u011f\u0131na inanmaktad\u0131r ve ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z bir devletin bayra\u011f\u0131 alt\u0131nda \u00f6lmeyi istemektedir.[2]<\/a> Barzani\u2019nin partisi olan K\u00fcrdistan Demokrat Partisi (KDP), b\u00f6lgedeki bir\u00e7ok b\u00fcrokratik yap\u0131n\u0131n kontrol\u00fcn\u00fc elinde tutmaktad\u0131r ve KBY n\u00fcfusu taraf\u0131ndan da geni\u015f \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde destek g\u00f6rmektedir. Bu yan\u0131yla Barzani\u2019nin partisi ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131k referandumu fikrinin ard\u0131ndaki ba\u015fat g\u00fc\u00e7t\u00fcr.<\/p>\nBarzani\u2019ye, b\u00f6lge y\u00f6netimindeki iktidar payla\u015f\u0131m\u0131 ba\u011flam\u0131nda parlamento s\u00f6zc\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fcn Erbil\u2019e d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcne ya da b\u00f6lgenin yeni ba\u015fkan\u0131n\u0131n se\u00e7ilmesine izin vermemesi gibi nedenlerle ele\u015ftiriler y\u00f6neltilmektedir. Barzani\u2019nin referandum \u00e7a\u011fr\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n, dikkatleri g\u00fcndelik sorunlardan uzakla\u015ft\u0131rmaya ve petrol geliri ba\u015fta olmak \u00fczere kaynaklar\u0131n tahsisi konusunda Federal Irak H\u00fck\u00fcmeti i\u00e7indeki pazarl\u0131klarda K\u00fcrtlerin konumunu iyile\u015ftirmeye y\u00f6nelik olarak tasarlanm\u0131\u015f pragmatik bir hamle oldu\u011funu s\u00f6ylemek m\u00fcmk\u00fcnd\u00fcr. Barzani\u2019nin ba\u015fkanl\u0131k g\u00f6rev s\u00fcresi 19 A\u011fustos 2015 tarihinde sona ermi\u015ftir ancak K\u00fcrdistan \u0130sti\u015fare Kurulu Barzani\u2019nin iki y\u0131l daha g\u00f6revde kalabilece\u011fine karar vermi\u015ftir.[3]<\/a> Goran\u2019dan Yusuf Muhammed Sad\u0131k\u2019\u0131n Parlamento S\u00f6zc\u00fcs\u00fc olarak ele\u015ftirilerde bulunmas\u0131, Erbil\u2019e giri\u015finin KDP kontrol\u00fcndeki Pe\u015fmergeler taraf\u0131ndan engellenmesine neden olmu\u015ftur. Mevcut ekonomik sorunlar ve yolsuzluk iddialar\u0131 Barzani\u2019nin konumuna zarar vermektedir. Kimileri, ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131k referandumunun toplumu ortak bir ama\u00e7 etraf\u0131nda bir araya getirmek ve b\u00f6lgenin siyasi sorunlar\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7\u00f6zmekten ziyade ele\u015ftirilerin baz\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 ortadan kald\u0131rmak \u00fczere milliyet\u00e7ilik kozunu oynaman\u0131n bir bi\u00e7imi oldu\u011funu s\u00f6ylemektedir.[4]<\/a><\/p>\nK\u00fcrdistan Yurtseverler Birli\u011fi (KYB) ise kurucusu Celal Talabani\u2019nin sa\u011fl\u0131k sorunlar\u0131 ve birli\u011fin gelece\u011fine ili\u015fkin olarak partinin etkili isimleri aras\u0131ndaki anla\u015fmazl\u0131klar nedeniyle alt-\u00fcst olmu\u015f durumdad\u0131r. Son se\u00e7imler, toplumun partiye olan ilgisinin azald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6stermi\u015ftir ve bu da esasen KYB saflar\u0131nda ortaya \u00e7\u0131kan bir muhalif parti olarak Goran\u2019\u0131n ba\u015far\u0131l\u0131 olmas\u0131na imk\u00e2n tan\u0131m\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Son birka\u00e7 y\u0131ld\u0131r baz\u0131lar\u0131 Kosret Resul ve Berhem Salih\u2019in partiden ayr\u0131larak kendi siyasi hareketlerini ba\u015flatmak \u00fczere oldu\u011funa inanmaktad\u0131r.[5]<\/a> KYB saflar\u0131nda tam bir kopu\u015f g\u00f6rmek m\u00fcmk\u00fcn olmasa da partinin ve liderli\u011finin gelece\u011fine dair s\u00f6z konusu fikir ayr\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131 partinin siyasi s\u00fcre\u00e7te ba\u015far\u0131ya ula\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcnde \u00f6nemli bir engel te\u015fkil etmektedir. Her ne kadar KYB temsilcileri ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131k referandumunun bir hak oldu\u011fundan s\u00f6z etseler de esas\u0131nda referandumun zamanlamas\u0131n\u0131 ve K\u00fcrdistan B\u00f6lgesel Y\u00f6netimi idaresi taraf\u0131ndan \u015fu ana de\u011fin y\u00fcr\u00fct\u00fclme bi\u00e7imini sorgulamaktad\u0131rlar.<\/p>\nGoran\u2019a gelirsek, Goran da referanduma kar\u015f\u0131 olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 iddia etmekte ancak b\u00f6yle bir karar\u0131n b\u00f6lge parlamentosunun yetkisini gerektirdi\u011fini s\u00f6ylemektedir. Goran temsilcileri ilk olarak KBY\u2019deki kurumlar\u0131 i\u015fler bir vaziyete getirmeyi, ondan sonra bir meclis tezkeresi \u00e7\u0131karmay\u0131 ve bu b\u00fcy\u00fck karar\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7acak di\u011fer kararlar\u0131n al\u0131nmas\u0131na ili\u015fkin ad\u0131mlar\u0131n izlendi\u011fi bir zaman \u00e7izelgesini savunmaktad\u0131r. Goran, parlamentoda \u00e7o\u011funlu\u011fa sahip ikinci partidir ve referanduma ili\u015fkin mevcut tart\u0131\u015fmalar ile oturumlar\u0131 yeniden ba\u015flatma konusunda bir kazan\u00e7 elde etmeyi hedeflemektedir. Partiyi destekleyen bir Pe\u015fmerge g\u00fcc\u00fcne sahip olmayan Goran, KBY\u2019deki di\u011fer siyasi partilerle rekabet edebilmek i\u00e7in mevcut kurumlara bel ba\u011flamak zorundad\u0131r. Bu durumun bir sonucu olarak Goran, planlar\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamak \u00fczere Ba\u011fdat\u2019a ziyarette bulunan ve farkl\u0131 K\u00fcrt partilerinin olu\u015fturdu\u011fu Referandum Kurulu\u2019nda yer almam\u0131\u015ft\u0131r.[6]<\/a> Kurucusu No\u015firvan Mustafa\u2019n\u0131n vefat\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan Goran da bir d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm ge\u00e7irmi\u015ftir. Parti\u2019nin yeni lideri \u00d6mer Seyid Ali\u2019dir. Goran KBY\u2019deki idareye ele\u015ftirel yakla\u015fmakta ve b\u00f6lgenin kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya oldu\u011fu zorluklarla ba\u015f edebilmesi i\u00e7in b\u00f6lgenin yeniden \u00f6rg\u00fctlenmesi gerekti\u011fini s\u00f6ylemektedir. B\u00f6lgedeki \u0130slami partiler aras\u0131nda referandum fikrine kar\u015f\u0131 \u00e7\u0131kan K\u00fcrdistan \u0130slam Cephesi\u2019nin duru\u015fu Goran\u2019a en yak\u0131n\u0131d\u0131r, di\u011fer \u0130slami gruplar ise referandumu desteklediklerini a\u00e7\u0131klam\u0131\u015flard\u0131r.<\/p>\nBa\u011fdat\u2019taki farkl\u0131 siyasi akt\u00f6rlerin duru\u015funa bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131k referandumuna kar\u015f\u0131 neredeyse birle\u015fmi\u015f bir duru\u015f g\u00f6rmekteyiz. \u015eiilerin h\u00e2kim oldu\u011fu farkl\u0131 partiler referandum fikrini reddetmektedirler. Ba\u015fbakan Abadi de referanduma kar\u015f\u0131 \u00e7\u0131kmaktad\u0131r, ancak bu kar\u015f\u0131 \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f daha diplomatik tonlarda olmu\u015ftur:[7]<\/a> Referandum aleyhinde yak\u0131nmalarda bulunmamak suretiyle farkl\u0131 K\u00fcrt akt\u00f6rleri lehte birle\u015ftirmemeyi tercih etmi\u015f ve bunun yerine ba\u015fta I\u015e\u0130D ile m\u00fccadelenin zorunlulu\u011funu ve ger\u00e7ekle\u015fecek olan se\u00e7imleri g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcnde bulundurarak bu akt\u00f6rler aras\u0131ndaki ayr\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131 vurgulamay\u0131 hedeflemi\u015ftir. \u00d6nde gelen \u015eii din adam\u0131 Mukteda es-Sadr da Barzani\u2019den \u00fclkenin \u015fu anda maruz kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 zorluklar\u0131 g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcnde bulundurarak referandum yapma karar\u0131ndan vazge\u00e7mesini istemektedir.[8]<\/a> Irak\u2019\u0131n T\u00fcrkmen cemaati de referanduma, \u00f6zellikle Kerk\u00fck gibi b\u00fcy\u00fck T\u00fcrkmen topluluklar\u0131n\u0131n bulundu\u011fu vilayetleri de kapsayacak olmas\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcnde bulundurarak kar\u015f\u0131 \u00e7\u0131kmaktad\u0131r. KBY yaln\u0131zca kendi resmi s\u0131n\u0131rlar\u0131 i\u00e7inde de\u011fil ayn\u0131 zamanda Pe\u015fmerge\u2019nin kontrol\u00fcnde olan di\u011fer alanlar\u0131 da kapsayacak bir referandum yap\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 istemektedir. Barzani taraf\u0131na g\u00f6re bu talebin ard\u0131ndaki temel arg\u00fcmanlar, bu topraklar\u0131n Pe\u015fmerge kan\u0131yla \u00f6zg\u00fcrle\u015fti\u011fi ve burada ya\u015fayanlar\u0131n K\u00fcrt k\u00f6kenli oldu\u011fu y\u00f6n\u00fcndedir. Ancak madalyonun di\u011fer y\u00fcz\u00fcne bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, bu alanlarda bir referandum ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirme iste\u011finin b\u00f6lgedeki do\u011fal kaynaklar\u0131n gelecekteki olas\u0131 bir ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z devletin ekonomik olarak kendine yetebilmesi i\u00e7in elzem olaca\u011f\u0131 ger\u00e7e\u011fi ile ili\u015fkili oldu\u011fu g\u00f6r\u00fclmektedir.<\/p>\nB\u00f6lgesel Akt\u00f6rler<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\nB\u00f6lgedeki \u00fclkeler aras\u0131nda sadece \u0130srail ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131k referandumunu desteklemektedir. Tarihsel olarak \u0130srail ve Irak K\u00fcrtleri aras\u0131ndaki ili\u015fkiler olduk\u00e7a olumlu bir y\u00f6nde seyretmi\u015ftir ve \u0130srail Ba\u015fbakan\u0131 Netanyahu ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131k referandumunu destekledi\u011fini dile getirmi\u015ftir.[9]<\/a> Arap \u00fclkeleri, bir Arap devletinin b\u00f6l\u00fcnmesine neden olabilece\u011finden ve h\u00e2lihaz\u0131rda \u00e7alkant\u0131l\u0131 olan Arap d\u00fcnyas\u0131nda yeni siyasi sorunlara yol a\u00e7abilece\u011finden hareketle genel olarak referandum fikrine kar\u015f\u0131 \u00e7\u0131kmaktad\u0131r. K\u00fcrtlerin ayr\u0131lmalar\u0131 durumunda, kalan k\u0131s\u0131mlarda \u015eii Araplar egemen olacak ve \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n muhtemel etkisi b\u00f6lgenin S\u00fcnni Arap \u00fclkeleri i\u00e7in fazladan sorun olu\u015fturacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\nReferandum konusunda en \u00f6nemli b\u00f6lgesel akt\u00f6rler T\u00fcrkiye ve \u0130ran\u2019d\u0131r. Hem Ankara hem de Tahran KBY\u2019nin 25 Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de referandum ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirme plan\u0131na y\u00f6nelik itirazlar\u0131n\u0131 dile getirmi\u015flerdir. Tahran, i\u00e7 demografik nedenlerle (Irak, T\u00fcrkiye ve \u0130ran\u2019a kom\u015fu b\u00f6lgelerdeki K\u00fcrt n\u00fcfusu g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcnde bulundurarak) ve \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n bir b\u00fct\u00fcn olarak Irak \u00fczerindeki etkisini dikkate alarak referanduma kar\u015f\u0131 oldu\u011funu a\u00e7\u0131k\u00e7a belirtmi\u015ftir.[10]<\/a> Yani \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n kar\u015f\u0131 \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n hem i\u00e7 hem de d\u0131\u015f boyutlar\u0131 vard\u0131r. Irak\u2019ta bulunan \u0130ran\u2019la ili\u015fkili paramiliter g\u00fc\u00e7lerin referanduma kar\u015f\u0131 \u00f6rt\u00fck bir ara\u00e7 olarak kullan\u0131lmakta oldu\u011fu ifade edilmektedir.[11]<\/a> \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n S\u00fcleymaniye ile daha fazla ba\u011flant\u0131s\u0131 ve S\u00fcleymaniye \u00fczerinde daha fazla n\u00fcfuzu bulunmaktad\u0131r ve planlanan referanduma ili\u015fkin mesaj\u0131n\u0131 iletmek \u00fczere hem S\u00fcleymaniye hem de \u0130ran\u2019da KYB g\u00f6revlileri ve di\u011fer Irakl\u0131 fig\u00fcrlerden olu\u015fan heyetlerle temas h\u00e2lindedir. \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n referandum konusunda g\u00f6zda\u011f\u0131 mahiyetinde bir mesaj vermek i\u00e7in K\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck Zap Nehri\u2019nin suyunun kesilmesini koz olarak kullanmakta oldu\u011funa dair baz\u0131 iddialar bulunmaktad\u0131r.[12]<\/a><\/p>\nBenzer \u015fekilde T\u00fcrk yetkililer de referandum teklifine ili\u015fkin itirazlar\u0131n\u0131 Cumhurba\u015fkanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve D\u0131\u015fi\u015fleri Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00fczeyinde dile getirmi\u015ftir.[13]<\/a> D\u0131\u015f \u0130\u015fleri Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 taraf\u0131ndan yap\u0131lan resmi a\u00e7\u0131klamada \u201cIrak\u2019\u0131n toprak b\u00fct\u00fcnl\u00fc\u011f\u00fc ve siyasi birli\u011fi d\u0131\u015f politikam\u0131z\u0131n ilkelerinden biridir ve bu duru\u015fta bir de\u011fi\u015fiklik olmayacakt\u0131r\u201d[14]<\/a> denilmi\u015ftir. T\u00fcrklerin Irak\u2019\u0131n gelece\u011fine dair endi\u015feleri hem i\u00e7 politikadaki etkileri hem de Irak\u2019taki durumun PKK taraf\u0131ndan kendi lehine kullan\u0131labilirli\u011finden hareketle b\u00f6lgedeki g\u00fcvenlik tehditlerinin artma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131yla ili\u015fkilidir. T\u00fcrklerin nazar\u0131nda Irakl\u0131 T\u00fcrkmenlerin ve Kerk\u00fck gibi b\u00f6lgelerin kaderi de endi\u015fe verici di\u011fer hususlard\u0131r.<\/p>\nReferanduma ili\u015fkin tutumuyla ilgili olarak Amerikal\u0131 yetkililer, \u00f6nceliklerinin I\u015e\u0130D\u2019i yenmek oldu\u011funu ve hi\u00e7bir \u015feyin kendilerini I\u015e\u0130D ile m\u00fccadele konusundan uzakla\u015ft\u0131rmamas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini a\u00e7\u0131k\u00e7a belirtmi\u015flerdir. ABD\u2019li diplomatlar birle\u015fik, istikrarl\u0131 ve federal bir Irak\u2019\u0131 desteklediklerini fakat ayn\u0131 zamanda K\u00fcrt halk\u0131n\u0131n me\u015fru taleplerine de sayg\u0131 duyduklar\u0131n\u0131 belirtmekte ve Irak\u2019taki t\u00fcm akt\u00f6rleri Ba\u011fdat ve Erbil aras\u0131ndaki ili\u015fkilerin gelece\u011fi konusu ile me\u015fgul olmaya \u00e7a\u011f\u0131rmaktad\u0131r.[15]<\/a> ABD Savunma Bakan\u0131 James Mattis\u2019in 22 A\u011fustos tarihinde Erbil\u2019i ziyaretinde verdi\u011fi mesaj KBY\u2019nin ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131k referandumunu ertelemesi gerekti\u011fi y\u00f6n\u00fcnde olmu\u015ftur.[16]<\/a> Avrupa \u00fclkelerinden gelen i\u015faretler de ABD\u2019den gelenlerle benzerdir.<\/p>\n\u0130leriye Y\u00f6nelik Olarak<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\nKBY, teknik ve mali anlamda bu t\u00fcr bir referandum ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirmeye haz\u0131r g\u00f6r\u00fcnmemektedir. T\u00fcm ele\u015ftiri ve itirazlara ra\u011fmen Barzani ve di\u011fer yetkililer planlanm\u0131\u015f olan referandumu ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftireceklerini yinelemektedir. Bu arg\u00fcmanlara ilaveten, di\u011fer K\u00fcrt akt\u00f6rler baz\u0131 ko\u015fullar\u0131n yerine getirilmesi halinde referandumun ertelenmesi konusunda uzla\u015fma sa\u011flanabilece\u011fine ili\u015fkin baz\u0131 i\u015faretler vermektedir. Buna g\u00f6re, ABD ve uluslararas\u0131 kurulu\u015flar taraf\u0131ndan gelecekte bir referandum yap\u0131laca\u011f\u0131 teminat alt\u0131na al\u0131n\u0131r, Irak merkezi y\u00f6netimi KBY\u2019ye ay\u0131rm\u0131\u015f oldu\u011fu b\u00fct\u00e7eyi \u00f6der ve Anayasa\u2019n\u0131n 140. maddesi hayata ge\u00e7irilirse referandum ileride bir tarihe ertelenebilir.[17]<\/a><\/p>\nReferandum karar\u0131 lehinde ve aleyhindeki arg\u00fcmanlar \u0131\u015f\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, iki taraf da geri ad\u0131m atacakm\u0131\u015f gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcnmemektedir. Mevcut KBY y\u00f6netimi ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131k fikrinin birle\u015ftirici etkisinden kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flamay\u0131 hedeflerken, KBY i\u00e7indeki yerel rakiplerse referandumu b\u00f6lge parlamentosunu yeniden canland\u0131rmaya y\u00f6nelik bir konu olarak kullanma amac\u0131ndad\u0131r. Referanduma ili\u015fkin olarak Irak toplumunun di\u011fer kesimlerinden ve b\u00f6lgesel akt\u00f6rlerden gelen itirazlar dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, KBY ba\u015fkanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 mevcut konumunu gelecekteki stat\u00fcs\u00fcne ili\u015fkin m\u00fczakerelerde bulunmak, fakat ayn\u0131 zamanda KBY\u2019yi vuran ekonomik krizle ba\u015fa \u00e7\u0131kma \u00e7abas\u0131yla b\u00f6lgenin ekonomik a\u00e7\u0131dan fayda sa\u011flamas\u0131 i\u00e7in kullanmay\u0131 hedeflemektedir. ABD gibi k\u00fcresel oyuncular\u0131n temsilcilerinin ve b\u00f6lgesel akt\u00f6rlerin Irak ziyaretleri referanduma ili\u015fkin m\u00fczakerelerin, t\u00fcm taraflar i\u00e7in tatmin edici bir sonu\u00e7 elde etme \u00e7abas\u0131yla, son g\u00fcnlere kadar s\u00fcrece\u011fini g\u00f6stermektedir.<\/p>\n
Referanslar<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n1<\/a>– \u201cPresident Barzani: Baghdad\u2019s Budget Freeze \u2018As Bad as Gassing of Halabja\u2019.\u201d Rudaw. 6 Nisan 2014. Eri\u015fim tarihi 7 Eyl\u00fcl 2017. http:\/\/www.rudaw.net\/english\/kurdistan\/060420142<\/a><\/p>\n2-<\/a> MacDiarmid, Campbell. \u201c \u2018I Want to Die in the Shadow of the Flag of an Independent Kurdistan\u2019.\u201d (Ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z bir K\u00fcrdistan\u2019\u0131n bayra\u011f\u0131n\u0131n g\u00f6lgesinde \u00f6lmek istiyorum) Foreign Policy. 19 Haziran 2017. Eri\u015fim tarihi 7 Eyl\u00fcl 2017. http:\/\/foreignpolicy.com\/2017\/06\/15\/iwant-to-die-in-the-shadow-of-the-flag-of-an-independent-kurdistan\/<\/a><\/p>\n3-<\/a> Salih, Mohammed A. \u201cKRG parliament speaker: Barzani\u2019s term extension \u2018against the law\u2019.\u201d Al-Monitor. 30 A\u011fustos 2015. Eri\u015fim tarihi 7 Eyl\u00fcl 2017. http:\/\/www.al-monitor.com\/pulse\/originals\/2015\/08\/kurdish-parliament-speaker-challenge-barzani-legitimacy.html#ixzz4qUP7Sf00<\/a><\/p>\n4-<\/a> Saeed, Yerevan. \u201cFiring Up Kurdish Nationalism in Iraq.\u201d The Washington Institute for Near East Policy. 26 Nisan 2017. Eri\u015fim tarihi 7 Eyl\u00fcl 2017. http:\/\/www.washingtoninstitute.org\/fikraforum\/view\/whats-behind-firing-up-kurdish-nationalism-in-iraq<\/a><\/p>\n5<\/a>– \u201cHow critical is the new rift in the PUK?\u201d Rudaw. 5 Eyl\u00fcl 2016. Eri\u015fim tarihi 7 Eyl\u00fcl 2017. http:\/\/www.rudaw.net\/english\/kurdistan\/05092016<\/a><\/p>\n6-<\/a> \u201cGorran refuses to join referendum committee as others ponder timeline.\u201d Rudaw. 24 Temmuz 2017. Eri\u015fim tarihi 7 Eyl\u00fcl 2017. http:\/\/www.rudaw.net\/english\/kurdistan\/24042017<\/a><\/p>\n7-<\/a> Mostafa, Mohamed. \u201cAbadi warns Kurdistan against proceeding with.\u201d Iraqi News. 25 Temmuz 2017. Eri\u015fim tarihi 7 Eyl\u00fcl 2017. http:\/\/www.iraqinews.com\/baghdad-politics\/abadi-warns-kurdistan-proceeding-illicit-referendum\/<\/a><\/p>\n8-<\/a> \u201cLeading Iraqi cleric Sadr urges Kurdistan to call off independence referendum.\u201d 05 Temmuz 2017. Eri\u015fim tarihi 7 Eyl\u00fcl 2017. https:\/\/www.alaraby.co.uk\/english\/news\/2017\/7\/5\/leading-iraqi-cleric-sadr-urges-kurdistan-scraps-independence-referendum<\/a><\/p>\n9<\/a>– Keinon, Herb. \u201cNetanyahu to Congressmen: Kurds should have a state.\u201d The Jerusalem Post. 13 A\u011fustos 2017. Eri\u015fim tarihi 07 Eyl\u00fcl 2017. http:\/\/www.jpost.com\/Middle-East\/Netanyahu-to-Congressmen-Kurds-should-have-astate-502336<\/a><\/p>\n10-<\/a> \u201cIran strongly opposed to Kurdish independence.\u201d EIU. 4 A\u011fustos 2017. Eri\u015fim tarihi 7 Eyl\u00fcl 2017. http:\/\/country.eiu.com\/article.aspx?articleid=1505756134&Country=Iran&topic=Politics<\/a><\/p>\n11-<\/a> Majidyar, Ahmad. \u201cIran-Allied Iraqi Militia Group Threatens Violence over Kurdistan Independence Plan.\u201d Middle East Institute. 8 A\u011fustos 2017. Eri\u015fim tarihi 7 Eyl\u00fcl 2017. http:\/\/www.mei.edu\/content\/io\/iran-allied-iraqi-militiagroup-threatens-violence-over-kurdistanindependence-plan<\/a><\/p>\n12-<\/a> \u201cThe Ministry of Agriculture: the cut of water supplies by Iran is a pressure on KRG\u2019s plan to hold a referendum.\u201d KNN. 1 A\u011fustos 2017. Eri\u015fim tarihi 7 Eyl\u00fcl 2017. http:\/\/www.knnc.net\/en\/fullstory-61860-28-False#.WZ19naOXCUl<\/a><\/p>\n13-<\/a> \u201cErdo\u011fan: Referanduma do\u011fru bakm\u0131yorum.\u201d Rudaw. 8 Temmuz 2017. Eri\u015fim tarihi 7 Eyl\u00fcl 2017. http:\/\/www.rudaw.net\/mobile\/turkish\/middleeast\/turkey\/080720173<\/a><\/p>\n14-<\/a> http:\/\/www.mfa.gov.tr\/sc_-40_-disisleribakanligi-sozcusunun-ikby-basininda-yeralanhaberler-hk-sc.tr.mfa<\/a><\/p>\n15<\/a>– Department Press Briefing\u20138 Haziran 2017, https:\/\/www.state.gov\/r\/pa\/prs\/dpb\/2017\/06\/271653.htm#_ftn1<\/a><\/p>\n16-<\/a> Gordon, Michael R. \u201cMattis Asks Iraqi Kurds to Put Off Vote on Independence.\u201d The New York Times. 22 A\u011fustos 2017. Eri\u015fim tarihi 7 Eyl\u00fcl 2017. https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2017\/08\/22\/world\/middleeast\/iraq-kurds-independencemattis-barzani-tillerson.html<\/a><\/p>\n17-<\/a> \u201cKRG may postpone referendum in return for concessions from Baghdad, official says.\u201d Daily Sabah. 20 A\u011fustos 2017. Eri\u015fim tarihi 7 Eyl\u00fcl 2017. https:\/\/www.dailysabah.com\/mideast\/2017\/08\/20\/krg-may-postponereferendum-in-return-for-concessions-frombaghdad-official-says<\/a><\/p>\n <\/p>\n<\/div>
<\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"K\u00fcrdistan B\u00f6lgesel Y\u00f6netimi\u2019nin (KBY) 25 Eyl\u00fcl 2017 tarihinde ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131k referandumuna gidilece\u011fini a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131, I\u015e\u0130D\u2019e kar\u015f\u0131 operasyonlar\u0131n devam etti\u011fi Irak\u2019ta, K\u00fcrt meselesinin tekrar tart\u0131\u015fmaya a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 sa\u011flad\u0131.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":13,"featured_media":9707,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","ngg_post_thumbnail":0},"categories":[361],"tags":[],"asf_pub_issue":[10319],"asf_pub_region":[10321],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9705"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/13"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=9705"}],"version-history":[{"count":7,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9705\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":24401,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9705\/revisions\/24401"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/9707"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=9705"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=9705"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=9705"},{"taxonomy":"asf_pub_issue","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/asf_pub_issue?post=9705"},{"taxonomy":"asf_pub_region","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/asf_pub_region?post=9705"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}
Uzman G\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fc<\/a> \/ \/ B\u00f6lgesel Politika<\/a><\/h6><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div>\u00d6zet<\/span><\/strong>: K\u00fcrdistan B\u00f6lgesel Y\u00f6netimi\u2019nin (KBY) 25 Eyl\u00fcl 2017 tarihinde ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131k referandumuna gidilece\u011fini a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131, I\u015e\u0130D\u2019e kar\u015f\u0131 operasyonlar\u0131n devam etti\u011fi Irak\u2019ta, K\u00fcrt meselesinin tekrar tart\u0131\u015fmaya a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 sa\u011flad\u0131. KBY, \u00f6nde gelen Irakl\u0131 pek \u00e7ok ismin yan\u0131 s\u0131ra b\u00f6lgesel ve uluslararas\u0131 akt\u00f6rlerin tepkilerine ra\u011fmen, referandum plan ve takvimine sad\u0131k kalmakta \u0131srar ediyor. Son birka\u00e7 y\u0131ld\u0131r b\u00fcy\u00fck siyasi ve ekonomik krizlerin oldu\u011fu b\u00f6lgede, ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131k referandumu asl\u0131nda toplumun farkl\u0131 kesimlerini bir arada tutma y\u00f6ntemi olarak g\u00f6ze \u00e7arp\u0131yor. Tam da b\u00f6yle bir zamanda ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131k referandumunu g\u00fcndeme getirmek, nihayetinde ertelenecek olsa bile Ba\u011fdat\u2019tan, zorlu finansal durum ba\u011flam\u0131nda siyasi ve ekonomik imtiyazlar elde etmek i\u00e7in i\u015fe yarar bir taktik olabilir. Irak\u2019taki K\u00fcrtlerin kaderi, er ya da ge\u00e7 \u00fclkenin siyasi gelece\u011finin bir dengeye varmas\u0131n\u0131 sa\u011flayacak. Neredeyse hi\u00e7 kimse olas\u0131 bir referandumun s\u00f6z konusu meseleyi 25 Eyl\u00fcl g\u00fcn\u00fc birdenbire \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcme kavu\u015fturaca\u011f\u0131na inanmasa da referandumun ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131\u011fa giden yolda \u00f6nemli bir d\u00f6n\u00fcm noktas\u0131 olaca\u011f\u0131na kesin g\u00f6z\u00fcyle bak\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div>Ba\u011fdat ve Irakl\u0131 K\u00fcrtler aras\u0131ndaki sorunlu tarihsel ili\u015fki, Mesud Barzani\u2019nin bir s\u00fcre \u00f6nce Irak\u2019ta K\u00fcrdistan B\u00f6lgesel Y\u00f6netimi\u2019nin (KBY) ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131\u011f\u0131 konusunda 25 Eyl\u00fcl 2017 tarihinde bir referandum yap\u0131laca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131yla yeni bir a\u015famaya girdi. Irak K\u00fcrtlerinin ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131k konusunda geni\u015f bir deste\u011fi oldu\u011funa inan\u0131lsa da di\u011fer K\u00fcrt akt\u00f6rlerinin referandumun zamanlamas\u0131 ve ayn\u0131 zamanda ard\u0131nda yatan niyete ili\u015fkin baz\u0131 ele\u015ftirileri bulunmakta. Irak toplumunun di\u011fer kesimlerinden ve Irakl\u0131 siyasi liderlerden gelen i\u015faretler de olumlu de\u011fil. Ayr\u0131ca b\u00f6lgesel ve uluslararas\u0131 akt\u00f6rler de ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131k talebinden yana g\u00f6r\u00fcnm\u00fcyorlar. Bu etkenler \u0131\u015f\u0131\u011f\u0131nda; Irak\u2019taki di\u011fer K\u00fcrt siyasi akt\u00f6rler, Irakl\u0131 siyasi fig\u00fcrleri ve ayn\u0131 zamanda b\u00f6lgesel ve uluslararas\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lerin \u00e7\u0131karlar\u0131n\u0131 da g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcnde bulundurarak referandumun ger\u00e7ekle\u015fme ihtimalini analiz etmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015fal\u0131m.<\/p>\n
K\u00fcrtlerin ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131k talepleri Osmanl\u0131 \u0130mparatorlu\u011fu\u2019nun da\u011f\u0131lmas\u0131na ve Irak\u2019\u0131n Britanya himayesinde bir devlet olarak ortaya \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131na kadar uzanmaktad\u0131r. 1930\u2019lardan bu yana K\u00fcrtlerin ba\u015fkald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131 hem krall\u0131k (1921-1958) hem de cumhuriyet d\u00f6neminin (1958 ve sonras\u0131) merkezi h\u00fck\u00fcmetleri i\u00e7in \u00e7e\u015fitli sorunlar do\u011furmu\u015ftur. Darbeler ve birbiri ard\u0131na gelen ba\u015fkanlar da d\u00e2hil olmak \u00fczere, her \u00f6nemli siyasi de\u011fi\u015fimde K\u00fcrtler aras\u0131nda kendilerine daha fazla hak tan\u0131naca\u011f\u0131na dair bir umut ye\u015fermi\u015f ve siyasi fig\u00fcrler de bunlar\u0131n ger\u00e7ekle\u015fece\u011fine dair -Mustafa Barzani\u2019nin Sovyetler Birli\u011fi\u2019nden Irak\u2019a geri d\u00f6nmesi y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki \u00e7a\u011fr\u0131 da d\u00e2hil olmak \u00fczere- \u00e7e\u015fitli s\u00f6zler vermi\u015ftir. Bu haklar\u0131n kapsam\u0131 konusunda ya\u015fanan fikir ayr\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131 nedeniyle Ba\u011fdat h\u00fck\u00fcmetleri ve K\u00fcrtler aras\u0131ndaki gerilim y\u0131llar boyunca olduk\u00e7a y\u00fcksek bir tonda seyretmi\u015ftir. 2003 y\u0131l\u0131nda Saddam Rejimi\u2019nin ala\u015fa\u011f\u0131 edilmesinin ard\u0131ndan ortaya \u00e7\u0131kan atmosferde, 1991 sonras\u0131 s\u00fcre\u00e7 ile ba\u015flam\u0131\u015f olan geli\u015fmelerin bir sonucu olarak K\u00fcrtler kendilerini ama\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fck bir \u00e7o\u011funlu\u011funu yerine getirebilecek kadar g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir konumda bulmu\u015flard\u0131r. Esas\u0131nda K\u00fcrtler; bir g\u00fcvenlik g\u00fcc\u00fc, b\u00f6lgesel parlamento ve Irak merkezi h\u00fck\u00fcmetinde \u00f6nemli siyasi pozisyonlara gelme yoluyla ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131k d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda pek \u00e7ok hakka da sahip olmu\u015flard\u0131r. Irakl\u0131 K\u00fcrtler, 2003 y\u0131l\u0131ndan sonra, bir K\u00fcrt\u00fcn Irak Cumhurba\u015fkan\u0131 olmas\u0131 ve ulusal mecliste g\u00f6rev almas\u0131 ile Pe\u015fmerge g\u00fc\u00e7lerinin geni\u015f \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde destek bulmas\u0131yla olduk\u00e7a avantajl\u0131 ko\u015fullar elde etmi\u015flerdir. Ancak Ba\u011fdat\u2019\u0131n merkezile\u015ftirme politikalar\u0131n\u0131n 2000\u2019li y\u0131llar\u0131n son yar\u0131s\u0131nda K\u00fcrtlerin adem-i merkezile\u015fmeye y\u00f6nelik hedefleri ile \u00e7eli\u015fmeye ba\u015flamas\u0131yla ili\u015fkilerin do\u011fas\u0131nda bozulmalar ba\u015flam\u0131\u015ft\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Son birka\u00e7 y\u0131ld\u0131r b\u00fct\u00e7e payla\u015f\u0131m\u0131, g\u00fcvenlik g\u00fc\u00e7leri ve petrol ihracat\u0131 konular\u0131 ba\u015fta olmak \u00fczere Ba\u011fdat ve Erbil aras\u0131nda bir\u00e7ok fikir ayr\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 ya\u015fanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. \u00d6zellikle 2011 y\u0131l\u0131nda ABD\u2019nin g\u00fc\u00e7lerini Irak\u2019tan \u00e7ekmesinin ard\u0131ndan ili\u015fkilerdeki gerginlik daha da hissedilir olmu\u015ftur. K\u00fcrdistan B\u00f6lgesel Y\u00f6netimi\u2019nin kendi petrol\u00fcn\u00fc Irak h\u00fck\u00fcmetinden ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z olarak ihra\u00e7 etmesi talebiyle birlikte, Irak Ba\u015fbakan\u0131 Maliki 2014 y\u0131l\u0131nda KBY\u2019nin b\u00fct\u00e7esinin y\u00fczde 17\u2019sini dondurmu\u015f, bu durum da Barzani taraf\u0131ndan \u201cHalep\u00e7e\u2019ye gaz at\u0131lmas\u0131 kadar k\u00f6t\u00fc bir durum\u201d olarak nitelendirilmi\u015ftir.[1]<\/a> K\u00fcrtler bu konulara ili\u015fkin pazarl\u0131klar\u0131nda Ba\u011fdat\u2019a kar\u015f\u0131 ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131k kart\u0131n\u0131 oynam\u0131\u015f, Ba\u011fdat H\u00fck\u00fcmeti ise ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131\u011fa kar\u015f\u0131 bir koz olarak b\u00fct\u00e7eyi kullanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Irak \u015eam \u0130slam Devleti\u2019nin (I\u015e\u0130D) ortaya \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131 ve Musul\u2019un kontrol\u00fcn\u00fc ele ge\u00e7irmesiyle birlikte, I\u015e\u0130D ile m\u00fccadelenin ivedili\u011fi g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcnde bulundurularak s\u00f6z konusu meseleler bir s\u00fcreli\u011fine ertelenmi\u015ftir.<\/p>\nBa\u011fdat ve Erbil aras\u0131ndaki g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f ayr\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131n yan\u0131 s\u0131ra K\u00fcrdistan B\u00f6lgesel Y\u00f6netimi\u2019ndeki farkl\u0131 K\u00fcrt partileri ve liderleri aras\u0131nda da ciddi uyu\u015fmazl\u0131klar s\u00f6z konusudur. B\u00f6lge parlamentosu son iki y\u0131ld\u0131r toplanmam\u0131\u015ft\u0131r, hatta parlamento s\u00f6zc\u00fcs\u00fc S\u00fcleymaniye\u2019den Erbil\u2019e dahi gelememektedir. T\u00fcm bunlar olurken K\u00fcrdistan Yurtseverler Birli\u011fi (KYB) ve De\u011fi\u015fim Hareketi (Goran) birbiri ard\u0131na gelen i\u00e7 sorunlarla kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya kalm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. KYB lideri Celal Talabani a\u011f\u0131r bir hastal\u0131\u011f\u0131n pen\u00e7esindedir ve parti i\u00e7inde Talabani ailesi, Kosret Resul ve Berhem Salih gibi di\u011fer etkili fig\u00fcrler aras\u0131nda uzla\u015fmazl\u0131klar s\u00f6z konusudur. Bu ko\u015fullar alt\u0131nda, Mesud Barzani\u2019nin ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131k konusunda referandum yap\u0131laca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131 K\u00fcrdistan B\u00f6lgesel Y\u00f6netimi\u2019ndeki muhalif akt\u00f6rler aras\u0131nda farkl\u0131 fikirlerin ortaya \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131na yol a\u00e7m\u0131\u015ft\u0131r.<\/p>\n
KBY\u2019nin \u0130\u00e7 Dinamikleri<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\nIrak K\u00fcrtleri aras\u0131nda hi\u00e7bir grup KBY\u2019nin ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131k konusunda bir referandum yapma hakk\u0131na do\u011frudan kar\u015f\u0131 \u00e7\u0131kmamaktad\u0131r. Ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131k referandumunun yap\u0131laca\u011f\u0131, KBY\u2019nin h\u00e2lihaz\u0131rdaki ba\u015fkan\u0131 Mesud Barzani taraf\u0131ndan a\u00e7\u0131klanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Barzani\u2019nin g\u00f6rev s\u00fcresi sona ermeden \u00f6nce ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131\u011f\u0131 sa\u011flamak yoluyla tarihteki yerini almak istedi\u011fi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fclmektedir. Barzani ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131k i\u00e7in m\u00fckemmel bir zamanlaman\u0131n hi\u00e7bir zaman olmayaca\u011f\u0131na inanmaktad\u0131r ve ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z bir devletin bayra\u011f\u0131 alt\u0131nda \u00f6lmeyi istemektedir.[2]<\/a> Barzani\u2019nin partisi olan K\u00fcrdistan Demokrat Partisi (KDP), b\u00f6lgedeki bir\u00e7ok b\u00fcrokratik yap\u0131n\u0131n kontrol\u00fcn\u00fc elinde tutmaktad\u0131r ve KBY n\u00fcfusu taraf\u0131ndan da geni\u015f \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde destek g\u00f6rmektedir. Bu yan\u0131yla Barzani\u2019nin partisi ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131k referandumu fikrinin ard\u0131ndaki ba\u015fat g\u00fc\u00e7t\u00fcr.<\/p>\nBarzani\u2019ye, b\u00f6lge y\u00f6netimindeki iktidar payla\u015f\u0131m\u0131 ba\u011flam\u0131nda parlamento s\u00f6zc\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fcn Erbil\u2019e d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcne ya da b\u00f6lgenin yeni ba\u015fkan\u0131n\u0131n se\u00e7ilmesine izin vermemesi gibi nedenlerle ele\u015ftiriler y\u00f6neltilmektedir. Barzani\u2019nin referandum \u00e7a\u011fr\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n, dikkatleri g\u00fcndelik sorunlardan uzakla\u015ft\u0131rmaya ve petrol geliri ba\u015fta olmak \u00fczere kaynaklar\u0131n tahsisi konusunda Federal Irak H\u00fck\u00fcmeti i\u00e7indeki pazarl\u0131klarda K\u00fcrtlerin konumunu iyile\u015ftirmeye y\u00f6nelik olarak tasarlanm\u0131\u015f pragmatik bir hamle oldu\u011funu s\u00f6ylemek m\u00fcmk\u00fcnd\u00fcr. Barzani\u2019nin ba\u015fkanl\u0131k g\u00f6rev s\u00fcresi 19 A\u011fustos 2015 tarihinde sona ermi\u015ftir ancak K\u00fcrdistan \u0130sti\u015fare Kurulu Barzani\u2019nin iki y\u0131l daha g\u00f6revde kalabilece\u011fine karar vermi\u015ftir.[3]<\/a> Goran\u2019dan Yusuf Muhammed Sad\u0131k\u2019\u0131n Parlamento S\u00f6zc\u00fcs\u00fc olarak ele\u015ftirilerde bulunmas\u0131, Erbil\u2019e giri\u015finin KDP kontrol\u00fcndeki Pe\u015fmergeler taraf\u0131ndan engellenmesine neden olmu\u015ftur. Mevcut ekonomik sorunlar ve yolsuzluk iddialar\u0131 Barzani\u2019nin konumuna zarar vermektedir. Kimileri, ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131k referandumunun toplumu ortak bir ama\u00e7 etraf\u0131nda bir araya getirmek ve b\u00f6lgenin siyasi sorunlar\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7\u00f6zmekten ziyade ele\u015ftirilerin baz\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 ortadan kald\u0131rmak \u00fczere milliyet\u00e7ilik kozunu oynaman\u0131n bir bi\u00e7imi oldu\u011funu s\u00f6ylemektedir.[4]<\/a><\/p>\nK\u00fcrdistan Yurtseverler Birli\u011fi (KYB) ise kurucusu Celal Talabani\u2019nin sa\u011fl\u0131k sorunlar\u0131 ve birli\u011fin gelece\u011fine ili\u015fkin olarak partinin etkili isimleri aras\u0131ndaki anla\u015fmazl\u0131klar nedeniyle alt-\u00fcst olmu\u015f durumdad\u0131r. Son se\u00e7imler, toplumun partiye olan ilgisinin azald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6stermi\u015ftir ve bu da esasen KYB saflar\u0131nda ortaya \u00e7\u0131kan bir muhalif parti olarak Goran\u2019\u0131n ba\u015far\u0131l\u0131 olmas\u0131na imk\u00e2n tan\u0131m\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Son birka\u00e7 y\u0131ld\u0131r baz\u0131lar\u0131 Kosret Resul ve Berhem Salih\u2019in partiden ayr\u0131larak kendi siyasi hareketlerini ba\u015flatmak \u00fczere oldu\u011funa inanmaktad\u0131r.[5]<\/a> KYB saflar\u0131nda tam bir kopu\u015f g\u00f6rmek m\u00fcmk\u00fcn olmasa da partinin ve liderli\u011finin gelece\u011fine dair s\u00f6z konusu fikir ayr\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131 partinin siyasi s\u00fcre\u00e7te ba\u015far\u0131ya ula\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcnde \u00f6nemli bir engel te\u015fkil etmektedir. Her ne kadar KYB temsilcileri ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131k referandumunun bir hak oldu\u011fundan s\u00f6z etseler de esas\u0131nda referandumun zamanlamas\u0131n\u0131 ve K\u00fcrdistan B\u00f6lgesel Y\u00f6netimi idaresi taraf\u0131ndan \u015fu ana de\u011fin y\u00fcr\u00fct\u00fclme bi\u00e7imini sorgulamaktad\u0131rlar.<\/p>\nGoran\u2019a gelirsek, Goran da referanduma kar\u015f\u0131 olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 iddia etmekte ancak b\u00f6yle bir karar\u0131n b\u00f6lge parlamentosunun yetkisini gerektirdi\u011fini s\u00f6ylemektedir. Goran temsilcileri ilk olarak KBY\u2019deki kurumlar\u0131 i\u015fler bir vaziyete getirmeyi, ondan sonra bir meclis tezkeresi \u00e7\u0131karmay\u0131 ve bu b\u00fcy\u00fck karar\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7acak di\u011fer kararlar\u0131n al\u0131nmas\u0131na ili\u015fkin ad\u0131mlar\u0131n izlendi\u011fi bir zaman \u00e7izelgesini savunmaktad\u0131r. Goran, parlamentoda \u00e7o\u011funlu\u011fa sahip ikinci partidir ve referanduma ili\u015fkin mevcut tart\u0131\u015fmalar ile oturumlar\u0131 yeniden ba\u015flatma konusunda bir kazan\u00e7 elde etmeyi hedeflemektedir. Partiyi destekleyen bir Pe\u015fmerge g\u00fcc\u00fcne sahip olmayan Goran, KBY\u2019deki di\u011fer siyasi partilerle rekabet edebilmek i\u00e7in mevcut kurumlara bel ba\u011flamak zorundad\u0131r. Bu durumun bir sonucu olarak Goran, planlar\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamak \u00fczere Ba\u011fdat\u2019a ziyarette bulunan ve farkl\u0131 K\u00fcrt partilerinin olu\u015fturdu\u011fu Referandum Kurulu\u2019nda yer almam\u0131\u015ft\u0131r.[6]<\/a> Kurucusu No\u015firvan Mustafa\u2019n\u0131n vefat\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan Goran da bir d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm ge\u00e7irmi\u015ftir. Parti\u2019nin yeni lideri \u00d6mer Seyid Ali\u2019dir. Goran KBY\u2019deki idareye ele\u015ftirel yakla\u015fmakta ve b\u00f6lgenin kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya oldu\u011fu zorluklarla ba\u015f edebilmesi i\u00e7in b\u00f6lgenin yeniden \u00f6rg\u00fctlenmesi gerekti\u011fini s\u00f6ylemektedir. B\u00f6lgedeki \u0130slami partiler aras\u0131nda referandum fikrine kar\u015f\u0131 \u00e7\u0131kan K\u00fcrdistan \u0130slam Cephesi\u2019nin duru\u015fu Goran\u2019a en yak\u0131n\u0131d\u0131r, di\u011fer \u0130slami gruplar ise referandumu desteklediklerini a\u00e7\u0131klam\u0131\u015flard\u0131r.<\/p>\nBa\u011fdat\u2019taki farkl\u0131 siyasi akt\u00f6rlerin duru\u015funa bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131k referandumuna kar\u015f\u0131 neredeyse birle\u015fmi\u015f bir duru\u015f g\u00f6rmekteyiz. \u015eiilerin h\u00e2kim oldu\u011fu farkl\u0131 partiler referandum fikrini reddetmektedirler. Ba\u015fbakan Abadi de referanduma kar\u015f\u0131 \u00e7\u0131kmaktad\u0131r, ancak bu kar\u015f\u0131 \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f daha diplomatik tonlarda olmu\u015ftur:[7]<\/a> Referandum aleyhinde yak\u0131nmalarda bulunmamak suretiyle farkl\u0131 K\u00fcrt akt\u00f6rleri lehte birle\u015ftirmemeyi tercih etmi\u015f ve bunun yerine ba\u015fta I\u015e\u0130D ile m\u00fccadelenin zorunlulu\u011funu ve ger\u00e7ekle\u015fecek olan se\u00e7imleri g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcnde bulundurarak bu akt\u00f6rler aras\u0131ndaki ayr\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131 vurgulamay\u0131 hedeflemi\u015ftir. \u00d6nde gelen \u015eii din adam\u0131 Mukteda es-Sadr da Barzani\u2019den \u00fclkenin \u015fu anda maruz kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 zorluklar\u0131 g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcnde bulundurarak referandum yapma karar\u0131ndan vazge\u00e7mesini istemektedir.[8]<\/a> Irak\u2019\u0131n T\u00fcrkmen cemaati de referanduma, \u00f6zellikle Kerk\u00fck gibi b\u00fcy\u00fck T\u00fcrkmen topluluklar\u0131n\u0131n bulundu\u011fu vilayetleri de kapsayacak olmas\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcnde bulundurarak kar\u015f\u0131 \u00e7\u0131kmaktad\u0131r. KBY yaln\u0131zca kendi resmi s\u0131n\u0131rlar\u0131 i\u00e7inde de\u011fil ayn\u0131 zamanda Pe\u015fmerge\u2019nin kontrol\u00fcnde olan di\u011fer alanlar\u0131 da kapsayacak bir referandum yap\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 istemektedir. Barzani taraf\u0131na g\u00f6re bu talebin ard\u0131ndaki temel arg\u00fcmanlar, bu topraklar\u0131n Pe\u015fmerge kan\u0131yla \u00f6zg\u00fcrle\u015fti\u011fi ve burada ya\u015fayanlar\u0131n K\u00fcrt k\u00f6kenli oldu\u011fu y\u00f6n\u00fcndedir. Ancak madalyonun di\u011fer y\u00fcz\u00fcne bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, bu alanlarda bir referandum ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirme iste\u011finin b\u00f6lgedeki do\u011fal kaynaklar\u0131n gelecekteki olas\u0131 bir ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z devletin ekonomik olarak kendine yetebilmesi i\u00e7in elzem olaca\u011f\u0131 ger\u00e7e\u011fi ile ili\u015fkili oldu\u011fu g\u00f6r\u00fclmektedir.<\/p>\nB\u00f6lgesel Akt\u00f6rler<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\nB\u00f6lgedeki \u00fclkeler aras\u0131nda sadece \u0130srail ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131k referandumunu desteklemektedir. Tarihsel olarak \u0130srail ve Irak K\u00fcrtleri aras\u0131ndaki ili\u015fkiler olduk\u00e7a olumlu bir y\u00f6nde seyretmi\u015ftir ve \u0130srail Ba\u015fbakan\u0131 Netanyahu ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131k referandumunu destekledi\u011fini dile getirmi\u015ftir.[9]<\/a> Arap \u00fclkeleri, bir Arap devletinin b\u00f6l\u00fcnmesine neden olabilece\u011finden ve h\u00e2lihaz\u0131rda \u00e7alkant\u0131l\u0131 olan Arap d\u00fcnyas\u0131nda yeni siyasi sorunlara yol a\u00e7abilece\u011finden hareketle genel olarak referandum fikrine kar\u015f\u0131 \u00e7\u0131kmaktad\u0131r. K\u00fcrtlerin ayr\u0131lmalar\u0131 durumunda, kalan k\u0131s\u0131mlarda \u015eii Araplar egemen olacak ve \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n muhtemel etkisi b\u00f6lgenin S\u00fcnni Arap \u00fclkeleri i\u00e7in fazladan sorun olu\u015fturacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\nReferandum konusunda en \u00f6nemli b\u00f6lgesel akt\u00f6rler T\u00fcrkiye ve \u0130ran\u2019d\u0131r. Hem Ankara hem de Tahran KBY\u2019nin 25 Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de referandum ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirme plan\u0131na y\u00f6nelik itirazlar\u0131n\u0131 dile getirmi\u015flerdir. Tahran, i\u00e7 demografik nedenlerle (Irak, T\u00fcrkiye ve \u0130ran\u2019a kom\u015fu b\u00f6lgelerdeki K\u00fcrt n\u00fcfusu g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcnde bulundurarak) ve \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n bir b\u00fct\u00fcn olarak Irak \u00fczerindeki etkisini dikkate alarak referanduma kar\u015f\u0131 oldu\u011funu a\u00e7\u0131k\u00e7a belirtmi\u015ftir.[10]<\/a> Yani \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n kar\u015f\u0131 \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n hem i\u00e7 hem de d\u0131\u015f boyutlar\u0131 vard\u0131r. Irak\u2019ta bulunan \u0130ran\u2019la ili\u015fkili paramiliter g\u00fc\u00e7lerin referanduma kar\u015f\u0131 \u00f6rt\u00fck bir ara\u00e7 olarak kullan\u0131lmakta oldu\u011fu ifade edilmektedir.[11]<\/a> \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n S\u00fcleymaniye ile daha fazla ba\u011flant\u0131s\u0131 ve S\u00fcleymaniye \u00fczerinde daha fazla n\u00fcfuzu bulunmaktad\u0131r ve planlanan referanduma ili\u015fkin mesaj\u0131n\u0131 iletmek \u00fczere hem S\u00fcleymaniye hem de \u0130ran\u2019da KYB g\u00f6revlileri ve di\u011fer Irakl\u0131 fig\u00fcrlerden olu\u015fan heyetlerle temas h\u00e2lindedir. \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n referandum konusunda g\u00f6zda\u011f\u0131 mahiyetinde bir mesaj vermek i\u00e7in K\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck Zap Nehri\u2019nin suyunun kesilmesini koz olarak kullanmakta oldu\u011funa dair baz\u0131 iddialar bulunmaktad\u0131r.[12]<\/a><\/p>\nBenzer \u015fekilde T\u00fcrk yetkililer de referandum teklifine ili\u015fkin itirazlar\u0131n\u0131 Cumhurba\u015fkanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve D\u0131\u015fi\u015fleri Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00fczeyinde dile getirmi\u015ftir.[13]<\/a> D\u0131\u015f \u0130\u015fleri Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 taraf\u0131ndan yap\u0131lan resmi a\u00e7\u0131klamada \u201cIrak\u2019\u0131n toprak b\u00fct\u00fcnl\u00fc\u011f\u00fc ve siyasi birli\u011fi d\u0131\u015f politikam\u0131z\u0131n ilkelerinden biridir ve bu duru\u015fta bir de\u011fi\u015fiklik olmayacakt\u0131r\u201d[14]<\/a> denilmi\u015ftir. T\u00fcrklerin Irak\u2019\u0131n gelece\u011fine dair endi\u015feleri hem i\u00e7 politikadaki etkileri hem de Irak\u2019taki durumun PKK taraf\u0131ndan kendi lehine kullan\u0131labilirli\u011finden hareketle b\u00f6lgedeki g\u00fcvenlik tehditlerinin artma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131yla ili\u015fkilidir. T\u00fcrklerin nazar\u0131nda Irakl\u0131 T\u00fcrkmenlerin ve Kerk\u00fck gibi b\u00f6lgelerin kaderi de endi\u015fe verici di\u011fer hususlard\u0131r.<\/p>\nReferanduma ili\u015fkin tutumuyla ilgili olarak Amerikal\u0131 yetkililer, \u00f6nceliklerinin I\u015e\u0130D\u2019i yenmek oldu\u011funu ve hi\u00e7bir \u015feyin kendilerini I\u015e\u0130D ile m\u00fccadele konusundan uzakla\u015ft\u0131rmamas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini a\u00e7\u0131k\u00e7a belirtmi\u015flerdir. ABD\u2019li diplomatlar birle\u015fik, istikrarl\u0131 ve federal bir Irak\u2019\u0131 desteklediklerini fakat ayn\u0131 zamanda K\u00fcrt halk\u0131n\u0131n me\u015fru taleplerine de sayg\u0131 duyduklar\u0131n\u0131 belirtmekte ve Irak\u2019taki t\u00fcm akt\u00f6rleri Ba\u011fdat ve Erbil aras\u0131ndaki ili\u015fkilerin gelece\u011fi konusu ile me\u015fgul olmaya \u00e7a\u011f\u0131rmaktad\u0131r.[15]<\/a> ABD Savunma Bakan\u0131 James Mattis\u2019in 22 A\u011fustos tarihinde Erbil\u2019i ziyaretinde verdi\u011fi mesaj KBY\u2019nin ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131k referandumunu ertelemesi gerekti\u011fi y\u00f6n\u00fcnde olmu\u015ftur.[16]<\/a> Avrupa \u00fclkelerinden gelen i\u015faretler de ABD\u2019den gelenlerle benzerdir.<\/p>\n\u0130leriye Y\u00f6nelik Olarak<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\nKBY, teknik ve mali anlamda bu t\u00fcr bir referandum ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirmeye haz\u0131r g\u00f6r\u00fcnmemektedir. T\u00fcm ele\u015ftiri ve itirazlara ra\u011fmen Barzani ve di\u011fer yetkililer planlanm\u0131\u015f olan referandumu ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftireceklerini yinelemektedir. Bu arg\u00fcmanlara ilaveten, di\u011fer K\u00fcrt akt\u00f6rler baz\u0131 ko\u015fullar\u0131n yerine getirilmesi halinde referandumun ertelenmesi konusunda uzla\u015fma sa\u011flanabilece\u011fine ili\u015fkin baz\u0131 i\u015faretler vermektedir. Buna g\u00f6re, ABD ve uluslararas\u0131 kurulu\u015flar taraf\u0131ndan gelecekte bir referandum yap\u0131laca\u011f\u0131 teminat alt\u0131na al\u0131n\u0131r, Irak merkezi y\u00f6netimi KBY\u2019ye ay\u0131rm\u0131\u015f oldu\u011fu b\u00fct\u00e7eyi \u00f6der ve Anayasa\u2019n\u0131n 140. maddesi hayata ge\u00e7irilirse referandum ileride bir tarihe ertelenebilir.[17]<\/a><\/p>\nReferandum karar\u0131 lehinde ve aleyhindeki arg\u00fcmanlar \u0131\u015f\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, iki taraf da geri ad\u0131m atacakm\u0131\u015f gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcnmemektedir. Mevcut KBY y\u00f6netimi ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131k fikrinin birle\u015ftirici etkisinden kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flamay\u0131 hedeflerken, KBY i\u00e7indeki yerel rakiplerse referandumu b\u00f6lge parlamentosunu yeniden canland\u0131rmaya y\u00f6nelik bir konu olarak kullanma amac\u0131ndad\u0131r. Referanduma ili\u015fkin olarak Irak toplumunun di\u011fer kesimlerinden ve b\u00f6lgesel akt\u00f6rlerden gelen itirazlar dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, KBY ba\u015fkanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 mevcut konumunu gelecekteki stat\u00fcs\u00fcne ili\u015fkin m\u00fczakerelerde bulunmak, fakat ayn\u0131 zamanda KBY\u2019yi vuran ekonomik krizle ba\u015fa \u00e7\u0131kma \u00e7abas\u0131yla b\u00f6lgenin ekonomik a\u00e7\u0131dan fayda sa\u011flamas\u0131 i\u00e7in kullanmay\u0131 hedeflemektedir. ABD gibi k\u00fcresel oyuncular\u0131n temsilcilerinin ve b\u00f6lgesel akt\u00f6rlerin Irak ziyaretleri referanduma ili\u015fkin m\u00fczakerelerin, t\u00fcm taraflar i\u00e7in tatmin edici bir sonu\u00e7 elde etme \u00e7abas\u0131yla, son g\u00fcnlere kadar s\u00fcrece\u011fini g\u00f6stermektedir.<\/p>\n
Referanslar<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n1<\/a>– \u201cPresident Barzani: Baghdad\u2019s Budget Freeze \u2018As Bad as Gassing of Halabja\u2019.\u201d Rudaw. 6 Nisan 2014. Eri\u015fim tarihi 7 Eyl\u00fcl 2017. http:\/\/www.rudaw.net\/english\/kurdistan\/060420142<\/a><\/p>\n2-<\/a> MacDiarmid, Campbell. \u201c \u2018I Want to Die in the Shadow of the Flag of an Independent Kurdistan\u2019.\u201d (Ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z bir K\u00fcrdistan\u2019\u0131n bayra\u011f\u0131n\u0131n g\u00f6lgesinde \u00f6lmek istiyorum) Foreign Policy. 19 Haziran 2017. Eri\u015fim tarihi 7 Eyl\u00fcl 2017. http:\/\/foreignpolicy.com\/2017\/06\/15\/iwant-to-die-in-the-shadow-of-the-flag-of-an-independent-kurdistan\/<\/a><\/p>\n3-<\/a> Salih, Mohammed A. \u201cKRG parliament speaker: Barzani\u2019s term extension \u2018against the law\u2019.\u201d Al-Monitor. 30 A\u011fustos 2015. Eri\u015fim tarihi 7 Eyl\u00fcl 2017. http:\/\/www.al-monitor.com\/pulse\/originals\/2015\/08\/kurdish-parliament-speaker-challenge-barzani-legitimacy.html#ixzz4qUP7Sf00<\/a><\/p>\n4-<\/a> Saeed, Yerevan. \u201cFiring Up Kurdish Nationalism in Iraq.\u201d The Washington Institute for Near East Policy. 26 Nisan 2017. Eri\u015fim tarihi 7 Eyl\u00fcl 2017. http:\/\/www.washingtoninstitute.org\/fikraforum\/view\/whats-behind-firing-up-kurdish-nationalism-in-iraq<\/a><\/p>\n5<\/a>– \u201cHow critical is the new rift in the PUK?\u201d Rudaw. 5 Eyl\u00fcl 2016. Eri\u015fim tarihi 7 Eyl\u00fcl 2017. http:\/\/www.rudaw.net\/english\/kurdistan\/05092016<\/a><\/p>\n6-<\/a> \u201cGorran refuses to join referendum committee as others ponder timeline.\u201d Rudaw. 24 Temmuz 2017. Eri\u015fim tarihi 7 Eyl\u00fcl 2017. http:\/\/www.rudaw.net\/english\/kurdistan\/24042017<\/a><\/p>\n7-<\/a> Mostafa, Mohamed. \u201cAbadi warns Kurdistan against proceeding with.\u201d Iraqi News. 25 Temmuz 2017. Eri\u015fim tarihi 7 Eyl\u00fcl 2017. http:\/\/www.iraqinews.com\/baghdad-politics\/abadi-warns-kurdistan-proceeding-illicit-referendum\/<\/a><\/p>\n8-<\/a> \u201cLeading Iraqi cleric Sadr urges Kurdistan to call off independence referendum.\u201d 05 Temmuz 2017. Eri\u015fim tarihi 7 Eyl\u00fcl 2017. https:\/\/www.alaraby.co.uk\/english\/news\/2017\/7\/5\/leading-iraqi-cleric-sadr-urges-kurdistan-scraps-independence-referendum<\/a><\/p>\n9<\/a>– Keinon, Herb. \u201cNetanyahu to Congressmen: Kurds should have a state.\u201d The Jerusalem Post. 13 A\u011fustos 2017. Eri\u015fim tarihi 07 Eyl\u00fcl 2017. http:\/\/www.jpost.com\/Middle-East\/Netanyahu-to-Congressmen-Kurds-should-have-astate-502336<\/a><\/p>\n10-<\/a> \u201cIran strongly opposed to Kurdish independence.\u201d EIU. 4 A\u011fustos 2017. Eri\u015fim tarihi 7 Eyl\u00fcl 2017. http:\/\/country.eiu.com\/article.aspx?articleid=1505756134&Country=Iran&topic=Politics<\/a><\/p>\n11-<\/a> Majidyar, Ahmad. \u201cIran-Allied Iraqi Militia Group Threatens Violence over Kurdistan Independence Plan.\u201d Middle East Institute. 8 A\u011fustos 2017. Eri\u015fim tarihi 7 Eyl\u00fcl 2017. http:\/\/www.mei.edu\/content\/io\/iran-allied-iraqi-militiagroup-threatens-violence-over-kurdistanindependence-plan<\/a><\/p>\n12-<\/a> \u201cThe Ministry of Agriculture: the cut of water supplies by Iran is a pressure on KRG\u2019s plan to hold a referendum.\u201d KNN. 1 A\u011fustos 2017. Eri\u015fim tarihi 7 Eyl\u00fcl 2017. http:\/\/www.knnc.net\/en\/fullstory-61860-28-False#.WZ19naOXCUl<\/a><\/p>\n13-<\/a> \u201cErdo\u011fan: Referanduma do\u011fru bakm\u0131yorum.\u201d Rudaw. 8 Temmuz 2017. Eri\u015fim tarihi 7 Eyl\u00fcl 2017. http:\/\/www.rudaw.net\/mobile\/turkish\/middleeast\/turkey\/080720173<\/a><\/p>\n14-<\/a> http:\/\/www.mfa.gov.tr\/sc_-40_-disisleribakanligi-sozcusunun-ikby-basininda-yeralanhaberler-hk-sc.tr.mfa<\/a><\/p>\n15<\/a>– Department Press Briefing\u20138 Haziran 2017, https:\/\/www.state.gov\/r\/pa\/prs\/dpb\/2017\/06\/271653.htm#_ftn1<\/a><\/p>\n16-<\/a> Gordon, Michael R. \u201cMattis Asks Iraqi Kurds to Put Off Vote on Independence.\u201d The New York Times. 22 A\u011fustos 2017. Eri\u015fim tarihi 7 Eyl\u00fcl 2017. https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2017\/08\/22\/world\/middleeast\/iraq-kurds-independencemattis-barzani-tillerson.html<\/a><\/p>\n17-<\/a> \u201cKRG may postpone referendum in return for concessions from Baghdad, official says.\u201d Daily Sabah. 20 A\u011fustos 2017. Eri\u015fim tarihi 7 Eyl\u00fcl 2017. https:\/\/www.dailysabah.com\/mideast\/2017\/08\/20\/krg-may-postponereferendum-in-return-for-concessions-frombaghdad-official-says<\/a><\/p>\n <\/p>\n<\/div>
<\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"K\u00fcrdistan B\u00f6lgesel Y\u00f6netimi\u2019nin (KBY) 25 Eyl\u00fcl 2017 tarihinde ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131k referandumuna gidilece\u011fini a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131, I\u015e\u0130D\u2019e kar\u015f\u0131 operasyonlar\u0131n devam etti\u011fi Irak\u2019ta, K\u00fcrt meselesinin tekrar tart\u0131\u015fmaya a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 sa\u011flad\u0131.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":13,"featured_media":9707,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","ngg_post_thumbnail":0},"categories":[361],"tags":[],"asf_pub_issue":[10319],"asf_pub_region":[10321],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9705"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/13"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=9705"}],"version-history":[{"count":7,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9705\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":24401,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9705\/revisions\/24401"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/9707"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=9705"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=9705"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=9705"},{"taxonomy":"asf_pub_issue","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/asf_pub_issue?post=9705"},{"taxonomy":"asf_pub_region","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/asf_pub_region?post=9705"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}
\u00d6zet<\/span><\/strong>: K\u00fcrdistan B\u00f6lgesel Y\u00f6netimi\u2019nin (KBY) 25 Eyl\u00fcl 2017 tarihinde ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131k referandumuna gidilece\u011fini a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131, I\u015e\u0130D\u2019e kar\u015f\u0131 operasyonlar\u0131n devam etti\u011fi Irak\u2019ta, K\u00fcrt meselesinin tekrar tart\u0131\u015fmaya a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 sa\u011flad\u0131. KBY, \u00f6nde gelen Irakl\u0131 pek \u00e7ok ismin yan\u0131 s\u0131ra b\u00f6lgesel ve uluslararas\u0131 akt\u00f6rlerin tepkilerine ra\u011fmen, referandum plan ve takvimine sad\u0131k kalmakta \u0131srar ediyor. Son birka\u00e7 y\u0131ld\u0131r b\u00fcy\u00fck siyasi ve ekonomik krizlerin oldu\u011fu b\u00f6lgede, ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131k referandumu asl\u0131nda toplumun farkl\u0131 kesimlerini bir arada tutma y\u00f6ntemi olarak g\u00f6ze \u00e7arp\u0131yor. Tam da b\u00f6yle bir zamanda ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131k referandumunu g\u00fcndeme getirmek, nihayetinde ertelenecek olsa bile Ba\u011fdat\u2019tan, zorlu finansal durum ba\u011flam\u0131nda siyasi ve ekonomik imtiyazlar elde etmek i\u00e7in i\u015fe yarar bir taktik olabilir. Irak\u2019taki K\u00fcrtlerin kaderi, er ya da ge\u00e7 \u00fclkenin siyasi gelece\u011finin bir dengeye varmas\u0131n\u0131 sa\u011flayacak. Neredeyse hi\u00e7 kimse olas\u0131 bir referandumun s\u00f6z konusu meseleyi 25 Eyl\u00fcl g\u00fcn\u00fc birdenbire \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcme kavu\u015fturaca\u011f\u0131na inanmasa da referandumun ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131\u011fa giden yolda \u00f6nemli bir d\u00f6n\u00fcm noktas\u0131 olaca\u011f\u0131na kesin g\u00f6z\u00fcyle bak\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div> Ba\u011fdat ve Irakl\u0131 K\u00fcrtler aras\u0131ndaki sorunlu tarihsel ili\u015fki, Mesud Barzani\u2019nin bir s\u00fcre \u00f6nce Irak\u2019ta K\u00fcrdistan B\u00f6lgesel Y\u00f6netimi\u2019nin (KBY) ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131\u011f\u0131 konusunda 25 Eyl\u00fcl 2017 tarihinde bir referandum yap\u0131laca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131yla yeni bir a\u015famaya girdi. Irak K\u00fcrtlerinin ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131k konusunda geni\u015f bir deste\u011fi oldu\u011funa inan\u0131lsa da di\u011fer K\u00fcrt akt\u00f6rlerinin referandumun zamanlamas\u0131 ve ayn\u0131 zamanda ard\u0131nda yatan niyete ili\u015fkin baz\u0131 ele\u015ftirileri bulunmakta. Irak toplumunun di\u011fer kesimlerinden ve Irakl\u0131 siyasi liderlerden gelen i\u015faretler de olumlu de\u011fil. Ayr\u0131ca b\u00f6lgesel ve uluslararas\u0131 akt\u00f6rler de ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131k talebinden yana g\u00f6r\u00fcnm\u00fcyorlar. Bu etkenler \u0131\u015f\u0131\u011f\u0131nda; Irak\u2019taki di\u011fer K\u00fcrt siyasi akt\u00f6rler, Irakl\u0131 siyasi fig\u00fcrleri ve ayn\u0131 zamanda b\u00f6lgesel ve uluslararas\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lerin \u00e7\u0131karlar\u0131n\u0131 da g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcnde bulundurarak referandumun ger\u00e7ekle\u015fme ihtimalini analiz etmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015fal\u0131m.<\/p>\n K\u00fcrtlerin ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131k talepleri Osmanl\u0131 \u0130mparatorlu\u011fu\u2019nun da\u011f\u0131lmas\u0131na ve Irak\u2019\u0131n Britanya himayesinde bir devlet olarak ortaya \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131na kadar uzanmaktad\u0131r. 1930\u2019lardan bu yana K\u00fcrtlerin ba\u015fkald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131 hem krall\u0131k (1921-1958) hem de cumhuriyet d\u00f6neminin (1958 ve sonras\u0131) merkezi h\u00fck\u00fcmetleri i\u00e7in \u00e7e\u015fitli sorunlar do\u011furmu\u015ftur. Darbeler ve birbiri ard\u0131na gelen ba\u015fkanlar da d\u00e2hil olmak \u00fczere, her \u00f6nemli siyasi de\u011fi\u015fimde K\u00fcrtler aras\u0131nda kendilerine daha fazla hak tan\u0131naca\u011f\u0131na dair bir umut ye\u015fermi\u015f ve siyasi fig\u00fcrler de bunlar\u0131n ger\u00e7ekle\u015fece\u011fine dair -Mustafa Barzani\u2019nin Sovyetler Birli\u011fi\u2019nden Irak\u2019a geri d\u00f6nmesi y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki \u00e7a\u011fr\u0131 da d\u00e2hil olmak \u00fczere- \u00e7e\u015fitli s\u00f6zler vermi\u015ftir. Bu haklar\u0131n kapsam\u0131 konusunda ya\u015fanan fikir ayr\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131 nedeniyle Ba\u011fdat h\u00fck\u00fcmetleri ve K\u00fcrtler aras\u0131ndaki gerilim y\u0131llar boyunca olduk\u00e7a y\u00fcksek bir tonda seyretmi\u015ftir. 2003 y\u0131l\u0131nda Saddam Rejimi\u2019nin ala\u015fa\u011f\u0131 edilmesinin ard\u0131ndan ortaya \u00e7\u0131kan atmosferde, 1991 sonras\u0131 s\u00fcre\u00e7 ile ba\u015flam\u0131\u015f olan geli\u015fmelerin bir sonucu olarak K\u00fcrtler kendilerini ama\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fck bir \u00e7o\u011funlu\u011funu yerine getirebilecek kadar g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir konumda bulmu\u015flard\u0131r. Esas\u0131nda K\u00fcrtler; bir g\u00fcvenlik g\u00fcc\u00fc, b\u00f6lgesel parlamento ve Irak merkezi h\u00fck\u00fcmetinde \u00f6nemli siyasi pozisyonlara gelme yoluyla ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131k d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda pek \u00e7ok hakka da sahip olmu\u015flard\u0131r. Irakl\u0131 K\u00fcrtler, 2003 y\u0131l\u0131ndan sonra, bir K\u00fcrt\u00fcn Irak Cumhurba\u015fkan\u0131 olmas\u0131 ve ulusal mecliste g\u00f6rev almas\u0131 ile Pe\u015fmerge g\u00fc\u00e7lerinin geni\u015f \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde destek bulmas\u0131yla olduk\u00e7a avantajl\u0131 ko\u015fullar elde etmi\u015flerdir. Ancak Ba\u011fdat\u2019\u0131n merkezile\u015ftirme politikalar\u0131n\u0131n 2000\u2019li y\u0131llar\u0131n son yar\u0131s\u0131nda K\u00fcrtlerin adem-i merkezile\u015fmeye y\u00f6nelik hedefleri ile \u00e7eli\u015fmeye ba\u015flamas\u0131yla ili\u015fkilerin do\u011fas\u0131nda bozulmalar ba\u015flam\u0131\u015ft\u0131r.<\/p>\n Son birka\u00e7 y\u0131ld\u0131r b\u00fct\u00e7e payla\u015f\u0131m\u0131, g\u00fcvenlik g\u00fc\u00e7leri ve petrol ihracat\u0131 konular\u0131 ba\u015fta olmak \u00fczere Ba\u011fdat ve Erbil aras\u0131nda bir\u00e7ok fikir ayr\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 ya\u015fanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. \u00d6zellikle 2011 y\u0131l\u0131nda ABD\u2019nin g\u00fc\u00e7lerini Irak\u2019tan \u00e7ekmesinin ard\u0131ndan ili\u015fkilerdeki gerginlik daha da hissedilir olmu\u015ftur. K\u00fcrdistan B\u00f6lgesel Y\u00f6netimi\u2019nin kendi petrol\u00fcn\u00fc Irak h\u00fck\u00fcmetinden ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z olarak ihra\u00e7 etmesi talebiyle birlikte, Irak Ba\u015fbakan\u0131 Maliki 2014 y\u0131l\u0131nda KBY\u2019nin b\u00fct\u00e7esinin y\u00fczde 17\u2019sini dondurmu\u015f, bu durum da Barzani taraf\u0131ndan \u201cHalep\u00e7e\u2019ye gaz at\u0131lmas\u0131 kadar k\u00f6t\u00fc bir durum\u201d olarak nitelendirilmi\u015ftir.[1]<\/a> K\u00fcrtler bu konulara ili\u015fkin pazarl\u0131klar\u0131nda Ba\u011fdat\u2019a kar\u015f\u0131 ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131k kart\u0131n\u0131 oynam\u0131\u015f, Ba\u011fdat H\u00fck\u00fcmeti ise ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131\u011fa kar\u015f\u0131 bir koz olarak b\u00fct\u00e7eyi kullanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Irak \u015eam \u0130slam Devleti\u2019nin (I\u015e\u0130D) ortaya \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131 ve Musul\u2019un kontrol\u00fcn\u00fc ele ge\u00e7irmesiyle birlikte, I\u015e\u0130D ile m\u00fccadelenin ivedili\u011fi g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcnde bulundurularak s\u00f6z konusu meseleler bir s\u00fcreli\u011fine ertelenmi\u015ftir.<\/p>\n Ba\u011fdat ve Erbil aras\u0131ndaki g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f ayr\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131n yan\u0131 s\u0131ra K\u00fcrdistan B\u00f6lgesel Y\u00f6netimi\u2019ndeki farkl\u0131 K\u00fcrt partileri ve liderleri aras\u0131nda da ciddi uyu\u015fmazl\u0131klar s\u00f6z konusudur. B\u00f6lge parlamentosu son iki y\u0131ld\u0131r toplanmam\u0131\u015ft\u0131r, hatta parlamento s\u00f6zc\u00fcs\u00fc S\u00fcleymaniye\u2019den Erbil\u2019e dahi gelememektedir. T\u00fcm bunlar olurken K\u00fcrdistan Yurtseverler Birli\u011fi (KYB) ve De\u011fi\u015fim Hareketi (Goran) birbiri ard\u0131na gelen i\u00e7 sorunlarla kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya kalm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. KYB lideri Celal Talabani a\u011f\u0131r bir hastal\u0131\u011f\u0131n pen\u00e7esindedir ve parti i\u00e7inde Talabani ailesi, Kosret Resul ve Berhem Salih gibi di\u011fer etkili fig\u00fcrler aras\u0131nda uzla\u015fmazl\u0131klar s\u00f6z konusudur. Bu ko\u015fullar alt\u0131nda, Mesud Barzani\u2019nin ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131k konusunda referandum yap\u0131laca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131 K\u00fcrdistan B\u00f6lgesel Y\u00f6netimi\u2019ndeki muhalif akt\u00f6rler aras\u0131nda farkl\u0131 fikirlerin ortaya \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131na yol a\u00e7m\u0131\u015ft\u0131r.<\/p>\n KBY\u2019nin \u0130\u00e7 Dinamikleri<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n Irak K\u00fcrtleri aras\u0131nda hi\u00e7bir grup KBY\u2019nin ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131k konusunda bir referandum yapma hakk\u0131na do\u011frudan kar\u015f\u0131 \u00e7\u0131kmamaktad\u0131r. Ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131k referandumunun yap\u0131laca\u011f\u0131, KBY\u2019nin h\u00e2lihaz\u0131rdaki ba\u015fkan\u0131 Mesud Barzani taraf\u0131ndan a\u00e7\u0131klanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Barzani\u2019nin g\u00f6rev s\u00fcresi sona ermeden \u00f6nce ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131\u011f\u0131 sa\u011flamak yoluyla tarihteki yerini almak istedi\u011fi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fclmektedir. Barzani ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131k i\u00e7in m\u00fckemmel bir zamanlaman\u0131n hi\u00e7bir zaman olmayaca\u011f\u0131na inanmaktad\u0131r ve ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z bir devletin bayra\u011f\u0131 alt\u0131nda \u00f6lmeyi istemektedir.[2]<\/a> Barzani\u2019nin partisi olan K\u00fcrdistan Demokrat Partisi (KDP), b\u00f6lgedeki bir\u00e7ok b\u00fcrokratik yap\u0131n\u0131n kontrol\u00fcn\u00fc elinde tutmaktad\u0131r ve KBY n\u00fcfusu taraf\u0131ndan da geni\u015f \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde destek g\u00f6rmektedir. Bu yan\u0131yla Barzani\u2019nin partisi ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131k referandumu fikrinin ard\u0131ndaki ba\u015fat g\u00fc\u00e7t\u00fcr.<\/p>\n Barzani\u2019ye, b\u00f6lge y\u00f6netimindeki iktidar payla\u015f\u0131m\u0131 ba\u011flam\u0131nda parlamento s\u00f6zc\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fcn Erbil\u2019e d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcne ya da b\u00f6lgenin yeni ba\u015fkan\u0131n\u0131n se\u00e7ilmesine izin vermemesi gibi nedenlerle ele\u015ftiriler y\u00f6neltilmektedir. Barzani\u2019nin referandum \u00e7a\u011fr\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n, dikkatleri g\u00fcndelik sorunlardan uzakla\u015ft\u0131rmaya ve petrol geliri ba\u015fta olmak \u00fczere kaynaklar\u0131n tahsisi konusunda Federal Irak H\u00fck\u00fcmeti i\u00e7indeki pazarl\u0131klarda K\u00fcrtlerin konumunu iyile\u015ftirmeye y\u00f6nelik olarak tasarlanm\u0131\u015f pragmatik bir hamle oldu\u011funu s\u00f6ylemek m\u00fcmk\u00fcnd\u00fcr. Barzani\u2019nin ba\u015fkanl\u0131k g\u00f6rev s\u00fcresi 19 A\u011fustos 2015 tarihinde sona ermi\u015ftir ancak K\u00fcrdistan \u0130sti\u015fare Kurulu Barzani\u2019nin iki y\u0131l daha g\u00f6revde kalabilece\u011fine karar vermi\u015ftir.[3]<\/a> Goran\u2019dan Yusuf Muhammed Sad\u0131k\u2019\u0131n Parlamento S\u00f6zc\u00fcs\u00fc olarak ele\u015ftirilerde bulunmas\u0131, Erbil\u2019e giri\u015finin KDP kontrol\u00fcndeki Pe\u015fmergeler taraf\u0131ndan engellenmesine neden olmu\u015ftur. Mevcut ekonomik sorunlar ve yolsuzluk iddialar\u0131 Barzani\u2019nin konumuna zarar vermektedir. Kimileri, ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131k referandumunun toplumu ortak bir ama\u00e7 etraf\u0131nda bir araya getirmek ve b\u00f6lgenin siyasi sorunlar\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7\u00f6zmekten ziyade ele\u015ftirilerin baz\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 ortadan kald\u0131rmak \u00fczere milliyet\u00e7ilik kozunu oynaman\u0131n bir bi\u00e7imi oldu\u011funu s\u00f6ylemektedir.[4]<\/a><\/p>\n K\u00fcrdistan Yurtseverler Birli\u011fi (KYB) ise kurucusu Celal Talabani\u2019nin sa\u011fl\u0131k sorunlar\u0131 ve birli\u011fin gelece\u011fine ili\u015fkin olarak partinin etkili isimleri aras\u0131ndaki anla\u015fmazl\u0131klar nedeniyle alt-\u00fcst olmu\u015f durumdad\u0131r. Son se\u00e7imler, toplumun partiye olan ilgisinin azald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6stermi\u015ftir ve bu da esasen KYB saflar\u0131nda ortaya \u00e7\u0131kan bir muhalif parti olarak Goran\u2019\u0131n ba\u015far\u0131l\u0131 olmas\u0131na imk\u00e2n tan\u0131m\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Son birka\u00e7 y\u0131ld\u0131r baz\u0131lar\u0131 Kosret Resul ve Berhem Salih\u2019in partiden ayr\u0131larak kendi siyasi hareketlerini ba\u015flatmak \u00fczere oldu\u011funa inanmaktad\u0131r.[5]<\/a> KYB saflar\u0131nda tam bir kopu\u015f g\u00f6rmek m\u00fcmk\u00fcn olmasa da partinin ve liderli\u011finin gelece\u011fine dair s\u00f6z konusu fikir ayr\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131 partinin siyasi s\u00fcre\u00e7te ba\u015far\u0131ya ula\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcnde \u00f6nemli bir engel te\u015fkil etmektedir. Her ne kadar KYB temsilcileri ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131k referandumunun bir hak oldu\u011fundan s\u00f6z etseler de esas\u0131nda referandumun zamanlamas\u0131n\u0131 ve K\u00fcrdistan B\u00f6lgesel Y\u00f6netimi idaresi taraf\u0131ndan \u015fu ana de\u011fin y\u00fcr\u00fct\u00fclme bi\u00e7imini sorgulamaktad\u0131rlar.<\/p>\n Goran\u2019a gelirsek, Goran da referanduma kar\u015f\u0131 olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 iddia etmekte ancak b\u00f6yle bir karar\u0131n b\u00f6lge parlamentosunun yetkisini gerektirdi\u011fini s\u00f6ylemektedir. Goran temsilcileri ilk olarak KBY\u2019deki kurumlar\u0131 i\u015fler bir vaziyete getirmeyi, ondan sonra bir meclis tezkeresi \u00e7\u0131karmay\u0131 ve bu b\u00fcy\u00fck karar\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7acak di\u011fer kararlar\u0131n al\u0131nmas\u0131na ili\u015fkin ad\u0131mlar\u0131n izlendi\u011fi bir zaman \u00e7izelgesini savunmaktad\u0131r. Goran, parlamentoda \u00e7o\u011funlu\u011fa sahip ikinci partidir ve referanduma ili\u015fkin mevcut tart\u0131\u015fmalar ile oturumlar\u0131 yeniden ba\u015flatma konusunda bir kazan\u00e7 elde etmeyi hedeflemektedir. Partiyi destekleyen bir Pe\u015fmerge g\u00fcc\u00fcne sahip olmayan Goran, KBY\u2019deki di\u011fer siyasi partilerle rekabet edebilmek i\u00e7in mevcut kurumlara bel ba\u011flamak zorundad\u0131r. Bu durumun bir sonucu olarak Goran, planlar\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamak \u00fczere Ba\u011fdat\u2019a ziyarette bulunan ve farkl\u0131 K\u00fcrt partilerinin olu\u015fturdu\u011fu Referandum Kurulu\u2019nda yer almam\u0131\u015ft\u0131r.[6]<\/a> Kurucusu No\u015firvan Mustafa\u2019n\u0131n vefat\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan Goran da bir d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm ge\u00e7irmi\u015ftir. Parti\u2019nin yeni lideri \u00d6mer Seyid Ali\u2019dir. Goran KBY\u2019deki idareye ele\u015ftirel yakla\u015fmakta ve b\u00f6lgenin kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya oldu\u011fu zorluklarla ba\u015f edebilmesi i\u00e7in b\u00f6lgenin yeniden \u00f6rg\u00fctlenmesi gerekti\u011fini s\u00f6ylemektedir. B\u00f6lgedeki \u0130slami partiler aras\u0131nda referandum fikrine kar\u015f\u0131 \u00e7\u0131kan K\u00fcrdistan \u0130slam Cephesi\u2019nin duru\u015fu Goran\u2019a en yak\u0131n\u0131d\u0131r, di\u011fer \u0130slami gruplar ise referandumu desteklediklerini a\u00e7\u0131klam\u0131\u015flard\u0131r.<\/p>\n Ba\u011fdat\u2019taki farkl\u0131 siyasi akt\u00f6rlerin duru\u015funa bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131k referandumuna kar\u015f\u0131 neredeyse birle\u015fmi\u015f bir duru\u015f g\u00f6rmekteyiz. \u015eiilerin h\u00e2kim oldu\u011fu farkl\u0131 partiler referandum fikrini reddetmektedirler. Ba\u015fbakan Abadi de referanduma kar\u015f\u0131 \u00e7\u0131kmaktad\u0131r, ancak bu kar\u015f\u0131 \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f daha diplomatik tonlarda olmu\u015ftur:[7]<\/a> Referandum aleyhinde yak\u0131nmalarda bulunmamak suretiyle farkl\u0131 K\u00fcrt akt\u00f6rleri lehte birle\u015ftirmemeyi tercih etmi\u015f ve bunun yerine ba\u015fta I\u015e\u0130D ile m\u00fccadelenin zorunlulu\u011funu ve ger\u00e7ekle\u015fecek olan se\u00e7imleri g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcnde bulundurarak bu akt\u00f6rler aras\u0131ndaki ayr\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131 vurgulamay\u0131 hedeflemi\u015ftir. \u00d6nde gelen \u015eii din adam\u0131 Mukteda es-Sadr da Barzani\u2019den \u00fclkenin \u015fu anda maruz kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 zorluklar\u0131 g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcnde bulundurarak referandum yapma karar\u0131ndan vazge\u00e7mesini istemektedir.[8]<\/a> Irak\u2019\u0131n T\u00fcrkmen cemaati de referanduma, \u00f6zellikle Kerk\u00fck gibi b\u00fcy\u00fck T\u00fcrkmen topluluklar\u0131n\u0131n bulundu\u011fu vilayetleri de kapsayacak olmas\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcnde bulundurarak kar\u015f\u0131 \u00e7\u0131kmaktad\u0131r. KBY yaln\u0131zca kendi resmi s\u0131n\u0131rlar\u0131 i\u00e7inde de\u011fil ayn\u0131 zamanda Pe\u015fmerge\u2019nin kontrol\u00fcnde olan di\u011fer alanlar\u0131 da kapsayacak bir referandum yap\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 istemektedir. Barzani taraf\u0131na g\u00f6re bu talebin ard\u0131ndaki temel arg\u00fcmanlar, bu topraklar\u0131n Pe\u015fmerge kan\u0131yla \u00f6zg\u00fcrle\u015fti\u011fi ve burada ya\u015fayanlar\u0131n K\u00fcrt k\u00f6kenli oldu\u011fu y\u00f6n\u00fcndedir. Ancak madalyonun di\u011fer y\u00fcz\u00fcne bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, bu alanlarda bir referandum ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirme iste\u011finin b\u00f6lgedeki do\u011fal kaynaklar\u0131n gelecekteki olas\u0131 bir ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z devletin ekonomik olarak kendine yetebilmesi i\u00e7in elzem olaca\u011f\u0131 ger\u00e7e\u011fi ile ili\u015fkili oldu\u011fu g\u00f6r\u00fclmektedir.<\/p>\n B\u00f6lgesel Akt\u00f6rler<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n B\u00f6lgedeki \u00fclkeler aras\u0131nda sadece \u0130srail ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131k referandumunu desteklemektedir. Tarihsel olarak \u0130srail ve Irak K\u00fcrtleri aras\u0131ndaki ili\u015fkiler olduk\u00e7a olumlu bir y\u00f6nde seyretmi\u015ftir ve \u0130srail Ba\u015fbakan\u0131 Netanyahu ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131k referandumunu destekledi\u011fini dile getirmi\u015ftir.[9]<\/a> Arap \u00fclkeleri, bir Arap devletinin b\u00f6l\u00fcnmesine neden olabilece\u011finden ve h\u00e2lihaz\u0131rda \u00e7alkant\u0131l\u0131 olan Arap d\u00fcnyas\u0131nda yeni siyasi sorunlara yol a\u00e7abilece\u011finden hareketle genel olarak referandum fikrine kar\u015f\u0131 \u00e7\u0131kmaktad\u0131r. K\u00fcrtlerin ayr\u0131lmalar\u0131 durumunda, kalan k\u0131s\u0131mlarda \u015eii Araplar egemen olacak ve \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n muhtemel etkisi b\u00f6lgenin S\u00fcnni Arap \u00fclkeleri i\u00e7in fazladan sorun olu\u015fturacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n Referandum konusunda en \u00f6nemli b\u00f6lgesel akt\u00f6rler T\u00fcrkiye ve \u0130ran\u2019d\u0131r. Hem Ankara hem de Tahran KBY\u2019nin 25 Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de referandum ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirme plan\u0131na y\u00f6nelik itirazlar\u0131n\u0131 dile getirmi\u015flerdir. Tahran, i\u00e7 demografik nedenlerle (Irak, T\u00fcrkiye ve \u0130ran\u2019a kom\u015fu b\u00f6lgelerdeki K\u00fcrt n\u00fcfusu g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcnde bulundurarak) ve \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n bir b\u00fct\u00fcn olarak Irak \u00fczerindeki etkisini dikkate alarak referanduma kar\u015f\u0131 oldu\u011funu a\u00e7\u0131k\u00e7a belirtmi\u015ftir.[10]<\/a> Yani \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n kar\u015f\u0131 \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n hem i\u00e7 hem de d\u0131\u015f boyutlar\u0131 vard\u0131r. Irak\u2019ta bulunan \u0130ran\u2019la ili\u015fkili paramiliter g\u00fc\u00e7lerin referanduma kar\u015f\u0131 \u00f6rt\u00fck bir ara\u00e7 olarak kullan\u0131lmakta oldu\u011fu ifade edilmektedir.[11]<\/a> \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n S\u00fcleymaniye ile daha fazla ba\u011flant\u0131s\u0131 ve S\u00fcleymaniye \u00fczerinde daha fazla n\u00fcfuzu bulunmaktad\u0131r ve planlanan referanduma ili\u015fkin mesaj\u0131n\u0131 iletmek \u00fczere hem S\u00fcleymaniye hem de \u0130ran\u2019da KYB g\u00f6revlileri ve di\u011fer Irakl\u0131 fig\u00fcrlerden olu\u015fan heyetlerle temas h\u00e2lindedir. \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n referandum konusunda g\u00f6zda\u011f\u0131 mahiyetinde bir mesaj vermek i\u00e7in K\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck Zap Nehri\u2019nin suyunun kesilmesini koz olarak kullanmakta oldu\u011funa dair baz\u0131 iddialar bulunmaktad\u0131r.[12]<\/a><\/p>\n Benzer \u015fekilde T\u00fcrk yetkililer de referandum teklifine ili\u015fkin itirazlar\u0131n\u0131 Cumhurba\u015fkanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve D\u0131\u015fi\u015fleri Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00fczeyinde dile getirmi\u015ftir.[13]<\/a> D\u0131\u015f \u0130\u015fleri Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 taraf\u0131ndan yap\u0131lan resmi a\u00e7\u0131klamada \u201cIrak\u2019\u0131n toprak b\u00fct\u00fcnl\u00fc\u011f\u00fc ve siyasi birli\u011fi d\u0131\u015f politikam\u0131z\u0131n ilkelerinden biridir ve bu duru\u015fta bir de\u011fi\u015fiklik olmayacakt\u0131r\u201d[14]<\/a> denilmi\u015ftir. T\u00fcrklerin Irak\u2019\u0131n gelece\u011fine dair endi\u015feleri hem i\u00e7 politikadaki etkileri hem de Irak\u2019taki durumun PKK taraf\u0131ndan kendi lehine kullan\u0131labilirli\u011finden hareketle b\u00f6lgedeki g\u00fcvenlik tehditlerinin artma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131yla ili\u015fkilidir. T\u00fcrklerin nazar\u0131nda Irakl\u0131 T\u00fcrkmenlerin ve Kerk\u00fck gibi b\u00f6lgelerin kaderi de endi\u015fe verici di\u011fer hususlard\u0131r.<\/p>\n Referanduma ili\u015fkin tutumuyla ilgili olarak Amerikal\u0131 yetkililer, \u00f6nceliklerinin I\u015e\u0130D\u2019i yenmek oldu\u011funu ve hi\u00e7bir \u015feyin kendilerini I\u015e\u0130D ile m\u00fccadele konusundan uzakla\u015ft\u0131rmamas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini a\u00e7\u0131k\u00e7a belirtmi\u015flerdir. ABD\u2019li diplomatlar birle\u015fik, istikrarl\u0131 ve federal bir Irak\u2019\u0131 desteklediklerini fakat ayn\u0131 zamanda K\u00fcrt halk\u0131n\u0131n me\u015fru taleplerine de sayg\u0131 duyduklar\u0131n\u0131 belirtmekte ve Irak\u2019taki t\u00fcm akt\u00f6rleri Ba\u011fdat ve Erbil aras\u0131ndaki ili\u015fkilerin gelece\u011fi konusu ile me\u015fgul olmaya \u00e7a\u011f\u0131rmaktad\u0131r.[15]<\/a> ABD Savunma Bakan\u0131 James Mattis\u2019in 22 A\u011fustos tarihinde Erbil\u2019i ziyaretinde verdi\u011fi mesaj KBY\u2019nin ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131k referandumunu ertelemesi gerekti\u011fi y\u00f6n\u00fcnde olmu\u015ftur.[16]<\/a> Avrupa \u00fclkelerinden gelen i\u015faretler de ABD\u2019den gelenlerle benzerdir.<\/p>\n \u0130leriye Y\u00f6nelik Olarak<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n KBY, teknik ve mali anlamda bu t\u00fcr bir referandum ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirmeye haz\u0131r g\u00f6r\u00fcnmemektedir. T\u00fcm ele\u015ftiri ve itirazlara ra\u011fmen Barzani ve di\u011fer yetkililer planlanm\u0131\u015f olan referandumu ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftireceklerini yinelemektedir. Bu arg\u00fcmanlara ilaveten, di\u011fer K\u00fcrt akt\u00f6rler baz\u0131 ko\u015fullar\u0131n yerine getirilmesi halinde referandumun ertelenmesi konusunda uzla\u015fma sa\u011flanabilece\u011fine ili\u015fkin baz\u0131 i\u015faretler vermektedir. Buna g\u00f6re, ABD ve uluslararas\u0131 kurulu\u015flar taraf\u0131ndan gelecekte bir referandum yap\u0131laca\u011f\u0131 teminat alt\u0131na al\u0131n\u0131r, Irak merkezi y\u00f6netimi KBY\u2019ye ay\u0131rm\u0131\u015f oldu\u011fu b\u00fct\u00e7eyi \u00f6der ve Anayasa\u2019n\u0131n 140. maddesi hayata ge\u00e7irilirse referandum ileride bir tarihe ertelenebilir.[17]<\/a><\/p>\n Referandum karar\u0131 lehinde ve aleyhindeki arg\u00fcmanlar \u0131\u015f\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, iki taraf da geri ad\u0131m atacakm\u0131\u015f gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcnmemektedir. Mevcut KBY y\u00f6netimi ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131k fikrinin birle\u015ftirici etkisinden kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flamay\u0131 hedeflerken, KBY i\u00e7indeki yerel rakiplerse referandumu b\u00f6lge parlamentosunu yeniden canland\u0131rmaya y\u00f6nelik bir konu olarak kullanma amac\u0131ndad\u0131r. Referanduma ili\u015fkin olarak Irak toplumunun di\u011fer kesimlerinden ve b\u00f6lgesel akt\u00f6rlerden gelen itirazlar dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, KBY ba\u015fkanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 mevcut konumunu gelecekteki stat\u00fcs\u00fcne ili\u015fkin m\u00fczakerelerde bulunmak, fakat ayn\u0131 zamanda KBY\u2019yi vuran ekonomik krizle ba\u015fa \u00e7\u0131kma \u00e7abas\u0131yla b\u00f6lgenin ekonomik a\u00e7\u0131dan fayda sa\u011flamas\u0131 i\u00e7in kullanmay\u0131 hedeflemektedir. ABD gibi k\u00fcresel oyuncular\u0131n temsilcilerinin ve b\u00f6lgesel akt\u00f6rlerin Irak ziyaretleri referanduma ili\u015fkin m\u00fczakerelerin, t\u00fcm taraflar i\u00e7in tatmin edici bir sonu\u00e7 elde etme \u00e7abas\u0131yla, son g\u00fcnlere kadar s\u00fcrece\u011fini g\u00f6stermektedir.<\/p>\n Referanslar<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n 1<\/a>– \u201cPresident Barzani: Baghdad\u2019s Budget Freeze \u2018As Bad as Gassing of Halabja\u2019.\u201d Rudaw. 6 Nisan 2014. Eri\u015fim tarihi 7 Eyl\u00fcl 2017. http:\/\/www.rudaw.net\/english\/kurdistan\/060420142<\/a><\/p>\n 2-<\/a> MacDiarmid, Campbell. \u201c \u2018I Want to Die in the Shadow of the Flag of an Independent Kurdistan\u2019.\u201d (Ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z bir K\u00fcrdistan\u2019\u0131n bayra\u011f\u0131n\u0131n g\u00f6lgesinde \u00f6lmek istiyorum) Foreign Policy. 19 Haziran 2017. Eri\u015fim tarihi 7 Eyl\u00fcl 2017. http:\/\/foreignpolicy.com\/2017\/06\/15\/iwant-to-die-in-the-shadow-of-the-flag-of-an-independent-kurdistan\/<\/a><\/p>\n 3-<\/a> Salih, Mohammed A. \u201cKRG parliament speaker: Barzani\u2019s term extension \u2018against the law\u2019.\u201d Al-Monitor. 30 A\u011fustos 2015. Eri\u015fim tarihi 7 Eyl\u00fcl 2017. http:\/\/www.al-monitor.com\/pulse\/originals\/2015\/08\/kurdish-parliament-speaker-challenge-barzani-legitimacy.html#ixzz4qUP7Sf00<\/a><\/p>\n 4-<\/a> Saeed, Yerevan. \u201cFiring Up Kurdish Nationalism in Iraq.\u201d The Washington Institute for Near East Policy. 26 Nisan 2017. Eri\u015fim tarihi 7 Eyl\u00fcl 2017. http:\/\/www.washingtoninstitute.org\/fikraforum\/view\/whats-behind-firing-up-kurdish-nationalism-in-iraq<\/a><\/p>\n 5<\/a>– \u201cHow critical is the new rift in the PUK?\u201d Rudaw. 5 Eyl\u00fcl 2016. Eri\u015fim tarihi 7 Eyl\u00fcl 2017. http:\/\/www.rudaw.net\/english\/kurdistan\/05092016<\/a><\/p>\n 6-<\/a> \u201cGorran refuses to join referendum committee as others ponder timeline.\u201d Rudaw. 24 Temmuz 2017. Eri\u015fim tarihi 7 Eyl\u00fcl 2017. http:\/\/www.rudaw.net\/english\/kurdistan\/24042017<\/a><\/p>\n 7-<\/a> Mostafa, Mohamed. \u201cAbadi warns Kurdistan against proceeding with.\u201d Iraqi News. 25 Temmuz 2017. Eri\u015fim tarihi 7 Eyl\u00fcl 2017. http:\/\/www.iraqinews.com\/baghdad-politics\/abadi-warns-kurdistan-proceeding-illicit-referendum\/<\/a><\/p>\n 8-<\/a> \u201cLeading Iraqi cleric Sadr urges Kurdistan to call off independence referendum.\u201d 05 Temmuz 2017. Eri\u015fim tarihi 7 Eyl\u00fcl 2017. https:\/\/www.alaraby.co.uk\/english\/news\/2017\/7\/5\/leading-iraqi-cleric-sadr-urges-kurdistan-scraps-independence-referendum<\/a><\/p>\n 9<\/a>– Keinon, Herb. \u201cNetanyahu to Congressmen: Kurds should have a state.\u201d The Jerusalem Post. 13 A\u011fustos 2017. Eri\u015fim tarihi 07 Eyl\u00fcl 2017. http:\/\/www.jpost.com\/Middle-East\/Netanyahu-to-Congressmen-Kurds-should-have-astate-502336<\/a><\/p>\n 10-<\/a> \u201cIran strongly opposed to Kurdish independence.\u201d EIU. 4 A\u011fustos 2017. Eri\u015fim tarihi 7 Eyl\u00fcl 2017. http:\/\/country.eiu.com\/article.aspx?articleid=1505756134&Country=Iran&topic=Politics<\/a><\/p>\n 11-<\/a> Majidyar, Ahmad. \u201cIran-Allied Iraqi Militia Group Threatens Violence over Kurdistan Independence Plan.\u201d Middle East Institute. 8 A\u011fustos 2017. Eri\u015fim tarihi 7 Eyl\u00fcl 2017. http:\/\/www.mei.edu\/content\/io\/iran-allied-iraqi-militiagroup-threatens-violence-over-kurdistanindependence-plan<\/a><\/p>\n 12-<\/a> \u201cThe Ministry of Agriculture: the cut of water supplies by Iran is a pressure on KRG\u2019s plan to hold a referendum.\u201d KNN. 1 A\u011fustos 2017. Eri\u015fim tarihi 7 Eyl\u00fcl 2017. http:\/\/www.knnc.net\/en\/fullstory-61860-28-False#.WZ19naOXCUl<\/a><\/p>\n 13-<\/a> \u201cErdo\u011fan: Referanduma do\u011fru bakm\u0131yorum.\u201d Rudaw. 8 Temmuz 2017. Eri\u015fim tarihi 7 Eyl\u00fcl 2017. http:\/\/www.rudaw.net\/mobile\/turkish\/middleeast\/turkey\/080720173<\/a><\/p>\n 14-<\/a> http:\/\/www.mfa.gov.tr\/sc_-40_-disisleribakanligi-sozcusunun-ikby-basininda-yeralanhaberler-hk-sc.tr.mfa<\/a><\/p>\n 15<\/a>– Department Press Briefing\u20138 Haziran 2017, https:\/\/www.state.gov\/r\/pa\/prs\/dpb\/2017\/06\/271653.htm#_ftn1<\/a><\/p>\n 16-<\/a> Gordon, Michael R. \u201cMattis Asks Iraqi Kurds to Put Off Vote on Independence.\u201d The New York Times. 22 A\u011fustos 2017. Eri\u015fim tarihi 7 Eyl\u00fcl 2017. https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2017\/08\/22\/world\/middleeast\/iraq-kurds-independencemattis-barzani-tillerson.html<\/a><\/p>\n 17-<\/a> \u201cKRG may postpone referendum in return for concessions from Baghdad, official says.\u201d Daily Sabah. 20 A\u011fustos 2017. Eri\u015fim tarihi 7 Eyl\u00fcl 2017. https:\/\/www.dailysabah.com\/mideast\/2017\/08\/20\/krg-may-postponereferendum-in-return-for-concessions-frombaghdad-official-says<\/a><\/p>\n <\/p>\n<\/div> K\u00fcrdistan B\u00f6lgesel Y\u00f6netimi\u2019nin (KBY) 25 Eyl\u00fcl 2017 tarihinde ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131k referandumuna gidilece\u011fini a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131, I\u015e\u0130D\u2019e kar\u015f\u0131 operasyonlar\u0131n devam etti\u011fi Irak\u2019ta, K\u00fcrt meselesinin tekrar tart\u0131\u015fmaya a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 sa\u011flad\u0131.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":13,"featured_media":9707,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","ngg_post_thumbnail":0},"categories":[361],"tags":[],"asf_pub_issue":[10319],"asf_pub_region":[10321],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9705"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/13"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=9705"}],"version-history":[{"count":7,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9705\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":24401,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9705\/revisions\/24401"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/9707"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=9705"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=9705"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=9705"},{"taxonomy":"asf_pub_issue","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/asf_pub_issue?post=9705"},{"taxonomy":"asf_pub_region","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/asf_pub_region?post=9705"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}