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Muhanad Seloom<\/a> <\/i> 12 Ekim 2017<\/span><\/h6><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div>Uzman G\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fc<\/a> \/ \/ B\u00f6lgesel Politika<\/a><\/h6><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div>\u00d6zet<\/span><\/strong>: Irak K\u00fcrdistan B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131k referandumu modern Irak tarihinde bir d\u00f6n\u00fcm noktas\u0131n\u0131 temsil etmektedir. 1921 y\u0131l\u0131nda kurulmas\u0131ndan bu yana Irak\u2019\u0131n ilk kez toprak b\u00fct\u00fcnl\u00fc\u011f\u00fc tehlike alt\u0131ndad\u0131r. Ba\u011fdat\u2019taki federal h\u00fck\u00fcmet Irak\u2019\u0131n etnik-mezhepsel devletlere ayr\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6nlemek i\u00e7in elinden geleni yapacakt\u0131r. Ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z bir K\u00fcrt devletinin ortaya \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131, milyonlarca K\u00fcrd\u00fcn ya\u015fad\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u0130ran ve T\u00fcrkiye i\u00e7in de ayn\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde tehdit olu\u015fturmaktad\u0131r. Bu k\u0131sa yaz\u0131, Irak K\u00fcrdistan b\u00f6lgesinde yap\u0131lan ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131k referandumunun sonras\u0131nda neler olabilece\u011fini de\u011ferlendirmektedir.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div>K\u00fcrdistan B\u00f6lgesel Y\u00f6netimi\u2019nin (KBY) 25 Eyl\u00fcl 2017\u2019de bir ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131k referandumu yapma karar\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131nda pek \u00e7ok neden bulunmaktad\u0131r ve konunun uzmanlar\u0131 referandumun arkas\u0131nda yatan nedenleri daha detayl\u0131 olarak tart\u0131\u015fmaktad\u0131rlar[1]<\/a>. KBY ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131k referandumunu yapt\u0131 ancak K\u00fcrt y\u00f6neticiler Irak\u2019tan ayr\u0131lman\u0131n yak\u0131n bir gelecekte ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmeyece\u011finin fark\u0131ndalar. Kerk\u00fck ve di\u011fer tart\u0131\u015fmal\u0131 b\u00f6lgeler, \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm\u00fc y\u0131llar alabilecek \u00e7etrefilli etnik-dini konular\u0131 besliyor. Tart\u0131\u015fmal\u0131 b\u00f6lgelerdeki etnik-dinsel az\u0131nl\u0131klar\u0131n pek \u00e7o\u011fu Irak h\u00fck\u00fcmeti ve K\u00fcrdistan B\u00f6lgesel Y\u00f6netimi aras\u0131nda se\u00e7im yapmak zorunda olmaktan endi\u015fe duyuyor[2]<\/a>. KBY\u2019nin tart\u0131\u015fmal\u0131 b\u00f6lgelerde ya\u015fayan T\u00fcrkmen, Arap, \u015eebek, Yezidi ve Hristiyan az\u0131nl\u0131klar\u0131n haklar\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fcvence alt\u0131na alma anlam\u0131nda nas\u0131l bir garanti vermeye haz\u0131rland\u0131\u011f\u0131 belirsiz. K\u00fcrdistan b\u00f6lgesindeki az\u0131nl\u0131klar, \u201cbu referandumun Irak K\u00fcrdistan B\u00f6lgesi (IKB) az\u0131nl\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131n onay\u0131 olmadan kararla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve az\u0131nl\u0131klar\u0131n siyasi g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015flerinin al\u0131nmadan haz\u0131rland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131\u201d belirterek K\u00fcrt siyasi partilerin kendilerini siyasi rantlar\u0131 i\u00e7in kullan\u0131yor olmalar\u0131ndan korkuyor[3]<\/a>. Sonu\u00e7 olarak S\u00fcryani, Ermeni ve T\u00fcrkmen gruplar bir araya gelerek Referandum Y\u00fcksek Kurulu\u2019na, yeni devlette dini ve etnik haklar\u0131n\u0131n koruma alt\u0131na al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 ve az\u0131nl\u0131klar\u0131n kendi b\u00f6lgelerinde \u00f6z-y\u00f6netim hakk\u0131 sa\u011flanmas\u0131n\u0131 isteyen 50 talep sundu[4]<\/a>.<\/p>\nKBY Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Mesud Barzani referandum gecesi hem Irak hem de K\u00fcrdistan B\u00f6lgesinin bayraklar\u0131n\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131k\u00e7a g\u00f6sterildi\u011fi bir konu\u015fma yapt\u0131[5]<\/a>. Ba\u015fkan\u2019\u0131n, referandumun olumlu sonucunun K\u00fcrdistan B\u00f6lgesinin Irak\u2019tan hemen ayr\u0131laca\u011f\u0131 anlam\u0131na gelmedi\u011finin ve KBY\u2019nin anayasal olarak Irak Federal H\u00fck\u00fcmeti\u2019nin egemenlik yetkisi alt\u0131nda kalaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131n fark\u0131nda olmas\u0131 dikkat \u00e7ekicidir. Ayn\u0131 \u015fekilde Ba\u015fkan birka\u00e7 g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmede, KBY\u2019nin ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131k referandumuna alternatiflerden uygulanabilir olanlar\u0131 dikkate almaya a\u00e7\u0131k oldu\u011funu belirtmektedir[6]<\/a>. Referandumun olumlu sonucunun Ba\u011fdat\u2019taki merkezi y\u00f6netime Kerk\u00fck\u2019\u00fcn ve di\u011fer tart\u0131\u015fmal\u0131 b\u00f6lgelerin idaresi, KBY\u2019nin hava sahas\u0131 ve s\u0131n\u0131r ge\u00e7i\u015flerinin kontrol\u00fc ve do\u011fal kaynaklar\u0131n ke\u015ffi ve idaresi de d\u00e2hil olmak \u00fczere KBY\u2019ye daha fazla yetki sa\u011flamas\u0131 konusunda bask\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in bir kald\u0131ra\u00e7 g\u00f6revi g\u00f6rmesi kuvvetle muhtemeldir.<\/p>\nBa\u011fdat ve KBY aras\u0131nda ya\u015fanan siyasi ayr\u0131l\u0131k referandum yap\u0131ld\u0131ktan sonra da b\u00fcy\u00fcyerek devam etmektedir. Mevcut krizin gidi\u015fat\u0131 hakk\u0131nda farkl\u0131 spek\u00fclasyonlar bulunmaktad\u0131r. Bu \u00e7al\u0131\u015fma KBY\u2019nin ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131k referandumundan sonra neler olabilece\u011fine ili\u015fkin \u00fc\u00e7 senaryo \u00f6nermektedir:<\/p>\n
\u0130lk Senaryo: Siyasi A\u00e7maz<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n\u015eu anda geli\u015fmekte olan ilk senaryo Ba\u011fdat\u2019taki Irak merkezi y\u00f6netimi ve Erbil\u2019de bulunan KBY aras\u0131nda bir siyasi \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n ger\u00e7ekle\u015fecek olmas\u0131 ihtimalidir. Irak y\u00f6netimi KBY\u2019nin ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131k referandumu yapma karar\u0131na cevaben idari yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 \u00e7oktan devreye sokmu\u015ftur. Referandum ak\u015fam\u0131 Irak y\u00f6netimi \u00fclke topra\u011f\u0131 \u00fczerindeki egemenlik yetkisini kullanm\u0131\u015f, KBY\u2019ye havaalanlar\u0131n\u0131 ve \u0130ran, T\u00fcrkiye ve Suriye aras\u0131ndaki s\u0131n\u0131r ge\u00e7i\u015flerini devretmesi talimat\u0131n\u0131 vermi\u015ftir. Ayr\u0131ca Ba\u011fdat\u2019ta bulunan merkezi Irak y\u00f6netimi ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131k oylamas\u0131na misilleme olarak Irak K\u00fcrdistan\u0131\u2019na hava yoluyla ula\u015f\u0131ma bir yasaklama getirmi\u015ftir. Bu hamle di\u011fer pek \u00e7ok b\u00f6lgesel ve uluslararas\u0131 h\u00fck\u00fcmetin geni\u015f \u00e7apta itiraz\u0131 ile kar\u015f\u0131la\u015fm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r[7]<\/a>. Buna ek olarak Irak y\u00f6netimi, Irak h\u00fck\u00fcmeti i\u00e7erisinde ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131k referandumunda oy kullanan K\u00fcrt yetkilileri a\u00e7\u0131\u011fa alma, i\u015ften \u00e7\u0131karma ve muhtemelen haklar\u0131nda dava a\u00e7ma niyetindedir[8]<\/a>. Irak y\u00f6netimi, tart\u0131\u015fmal\u0131 b\u00f6lgelerde KBY ile s\u00f6zle\u015fme yaparak \u00e7al\u0131\u015fan t\u00fcm petrol \u015firketlerine yasak koymu\u015ftur ve yabanc\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n KBY\u2019nin petrol\u00fcn\u00fc almay\u0131 b\u0131rakmalar\u0131 i\u00e7in bask\u0131 yapma niyetindedir. Ancak Irak y\u00f6netiminin kar\u015f\u0131 y\u00f6ntemlerinde \u015fu ana kadar pek ba\u015far\u0131l\u0131 oldu\u011fu s\u00f6ylenemez. Aktar\u0131lan bilgiler, Rusya\u2019dan Rosneft\u2019in KBY ile K\u00fcrdistan topraklar\u0131nda do\u011fal gaz boru hatt\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131na ili\u015fkin olarak yeni anla\u015fmalar yapmaya ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcndedir[9]<\/a>. Buna ilaveten, Chevron iki y\u0131ll\u0131k aradan sonra 2017 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n Eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131nda, ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131k referandumu plan\u0131 konusunda uluslararas\u0131 tart\u0131\u015fmalara ra\u011fmen b\u00f6lgeye g\u00fcveni i\u015faret eden bir hamle yaparak Irak K\u00fcrdistan\u0131\u2019nda ilk kuyusunu a\u00e7m\u0131\u015f ve sondaj\u0131na ba\u015flam\u0131\u015ft\u0131r[10]<\/a>. Irak y\u00f6netiminin KBY\u2019ye kar\u015f\u0131 tedbirlerinin birle\u015fik etkisi \u015f\u00fcphesiz Ba\u011fdat ve Erbil aras\u0131ndaki bir siyasi \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma tehdidi olu\u015fturmaktad\u0131r ki bir uzla\u015fmaya var\u0131lamamas\u0131 durumunda bu gerginlik 2018 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n Nisan ay\u0131nda yap\u0131lmas\u0131 planlanan Irak parlamentosu se\u00e7imlerinin ertelenmesine neden olabilir.<\/p>\nBenzer \u015fekilde b\u00f6lgesel ve uluslararas\u0131 payda\u015flar da Ba\u011fdat\u2019taki federal y\u00f6netim ve Erbil\u2019deki KBY aras\u0131ndaki krizin geli\u015fimi ve seyrini etkileyecektir. T\u00fcrk h\u00fck\u00fcmeti ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131k referandumuna cevaben KBY\u2019yi siyasi ve ekonomik yapt\u0131r\u0131mlarda bulunmakla tehdit etmi\u015ftir. Ayr\u0131ca T\u00fcrk medyas\u0131 da Kerk\u00fck\u2019teki ve tart\u0131\u015fmal\u0131 di\u011fer b\u00f6lgelerdeki T\u00fcrkmen az\u0131nl\u0131\u011f\u0131n referandumun bir sonucu olarak hedef al\u0131nmas\u0131 halinde KBY\u2019ye askeri m\u00fcdahalede bulunma tehdidinde bulunan \u00fcst d\u00fczey T\u00fcrk yetkililerin a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131na yer vermi\u015ftir[11]<\/a>. Ancak, T\u00fcrk h\u00fck\u00fcmetinin \u015fu a\u015famada Irak\u2019a askeri m\u00fcdahalede bulunmas\u0131 olas\u0131 de\u011fildir, zira s\u0131n\u0131rlar\u0131 d\u0131\u015f\u0131na askeri m\u00fcdahalenin do\u011fas\u0131 ve \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcs\u00fc hakk\u0131nda olduk\u00e7a ihtiyatl\u0131 hareket etmektedir[12]<\/a>.<\/p>\n\u0130ran da ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131k referandumuna yan\u0131t olarak KBY\u2019ye kar\u015f\u0131 siyasi ve ekonomik yapt\u0131r\u0131mlarda bulunma tehdidinde bulunmu\u015ftur[13]<\/a>. T\u00fcrkiye ve \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n KBY\u2019ye kar\u015f\u0131 siyasi ve ekonomik yapt\u0131r\u0131mlarda bulunmaya karar vermesi halinde, Ba\u011fdat ve KBY aras\u0131nda yap\u0131c\u0131 bir diyalo\u011fun ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesi ihtimali \u00f6nemli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde azalacakt\u0131r zira KBY Ba\u011fdat\u2019\u0131 K\u00fcrt halk\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 ekonomik ve siyasi bir ablukan\u0131n \u00f6nc\u00fcl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc yapmakla su\u00e7layacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\nT\u00fcrkiye, \u0130ran ve Irak\u2019\u0131n KBY\u2019ye kar\u015f\u0131 ittifak\u0131n\u0131n gere\u011finden fazla abart\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 teslim ederek; bu akt\u00f6rlerin \u00f6nceliklerinin birbirlerinden fakl\u0131 oldu\u011funu hat\u0131rlamak \u00f6nemlidir. Bu \u00fclkelerin ge\u00e7mi\u015f sicilleri ile farkl\u0131 ve s\u0131kl\u0131kla birbiriyle \u00e7at\u0131\u015fan \u00f6ncelikleri dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, mevcut koordinasyonun s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclmesi ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131lmaz olarak zor olacakt\u0131r. T\u00fcrk h\u00fck\u00fcmetinin KBY ile \u00f6nemli ekonomik ba\u011flar\u0131 bulunmaktad\u0131r; bu nedenledir ki T\u00fcrkiye halihaz\u0131rda KBY ile s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmekte oldu\u011fu k\u00e2rl\u0131 ili\u015fkiden kolay bir \u015fekilde vazge\u00e7meyecektir. \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n KBY ile \u00f6nemli ekonomik ba\u011flar\u0131 olsa da Ba\u011fdat ile ili\u015fkisi stratejik olarak daha \u00f6nemlidir. T\u00fcrkiye ve \u0130ran aras\u0131nda ge\u00e7mi\u015ften gelen rekabeti g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcnde bulundurmak da \u00f6nem ta\u015f\u0131maktad\u0131r. \u0130ki \u00fclke de b\u00f6lgede ve bilhassa Irak K\u00fcrdistan B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nde etkili olma konusunda s\u0131k\u0131 bir yar\u0131\u015f i\u00e7indedir. Bu rekabet her iki taraf\u0131n da KBY ile ili\u015fkilerini bozma iste\u011fine ket vurabilir. \u0130ran, T\u00fcrkiye ve Ba\u011fdat\u2019\u0131n PKK, PJAK, ekonomik \u00e7\u0131karlar ve di\u011fer konular s\u00f6z konusu olunca da farkl\u0131 \u00f6ncelikleri vard\u0131r. T\u00fcrkiye, \u0130ran ve Ba\u011fdat\u2019\u0131n KBY\u2019ye kar\u015f\u0131 halihaz\u0131rdaki ittifaklar\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki aylara kadar dayanmas\u0131 pek m\u00fcmk\u00fcn g\u00f6r\u00fcnmemektedir[14]<\/a>.<\/p>\n\u0130kinci Senaryo: Stratejik \u0130htiyat<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\nReferandumun k\u00f6r\u00fckledi\u011fi sert r\u00fczg\u00e2r\u0131n ge\u00e7mesini beklerken, Ba\u011fdat -Irak y\u00f6netimi \u00fclkenin toprak b\u00fct\u00fcnl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcne ili\u015fkin b\u00f6lgesel ve uluslararas\u0131 deste\u011fi avantaj olarak kullanarak- agresif siyasi retori\u011fe kar\u015f\u0131 yan\u0131t\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 tutarak ve k\u0131s\u0131tl\u0131 idari yapt\u0131r\u0131mlarda bulunmak yoluyla stratejik ihtiyat uygulayabilir. Uygulamada, Ba\u011fdat taraf\u0131ndan dayat\u0131lan herhangi bir idari eylem, siyasal ya da ekonomik yapt\u0131r\u0131m K\u00fcrdistan\u2019\u0131 hareket olana\u011f\u0131ndan yoksun b\u0131rakmayacakt\u0131r. Dahas\u0131 bu ko\u015fullarda b\u00fcy\u00fck bir askeri harek\u00e2t da \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclmemektedir.<\/p>\n
Bu ikinci senaryo, Ba\u015fkan Barzani\u2019ye referandum sonu\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 2017 Kas\u0131m ay\u0131 i\u00e7in planlanan parlamento ve ba\u015fkanl\u0131k se\u00e7imi \u00f6ncesinde i\u00e7 siyasi konulara de\u011finmede kullanmas\u0131 i\u00e7in yeteri kadar zaman tan\u0131yacakt\u0131r. \u015eu anki ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131k referandumu konusunda Ba\u011fdat ile ya\u015fanan krizin \u00f6ncesinde, b\u00f6lgenin ba\u015fkanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 konusunda bir t\u00fcr siyasi \u00e7\u0131kmaz oldu\u011fundan bahsetmek \u00f6nemlidir. Barzani\u2019nin g\u00f6rev s\u00fcresi 20 A\u011fustos 2015 y\u0131l\u0131nda I\u015e\u0130D\u2019e kar\u015f\u0131 sava\u015f devam ederken sona ermi\u015ftir[15]<\/a>. KBY ba\u015fkanl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n yetkileri konusunda farkl\u0131 K\u00fcrt siyasi partileri aras\u0131ndaki anla\u015fmazl\u0131k b\u00f6lgenin meclisini \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmaz hale getiren bir siyasi k\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcme yol a\u00e7m\u0131\u015f ve \u00e7o\u011funlu\u011fu muhalif Goran Partisi\u2019nden olmak \u00fczere baz\u0131 KBY bakanlar\u0131n\u0131n g\u00f6revden al\u0131nmas\u0131na sebep olmu\u015ftur. Referandumun yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131 etno-milliyet\u00e7i momentum b\u00f6lge meclisinin iki y\u0131ld\u0131r ilk kez, 15 Eyl\u00fcl 2017\u2019de ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131k referandumunu onaylamak \u00fczere toplanmas\u0131na olanak sa\u011flam\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Meclis, 68 \u00fcyenin 65\u2019inin deste\u011fiyle, oy \u00e7oklu\u011fuyla, referanduma onay vermi\u015ftir. Toplamda 111 \u00fcyeden sadece 68 vekilin meclis oturumuna kat\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 detay\u0131 \u00f6nem ta\u015f\u0131maktad\u0131r[16]<\/a>. KBY\u2019nin referandum sonu\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6nemli siyasi partileri birle\u015ftirmek i\u00e7in yeni bir siyasi uzla\u015fmaya zemin olarak kullanma aray\u0131\u015f\u0131nda olaca\u011f\u0131 neredeyse kesindir. Birle\u015fik bir K\u00fcrt cephesi olu\u015fturuldu\u011funda KBY Ba\u011fdat\u2019taki federal y\u00f6netimle diyalo\u011fa haz\u0131r olacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\nK\u00fcrdistan\u2019da referandum sonras\u0131 siyasi atmosfer \u00f6nemli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde etnik milliyet\u00e7i duyguyla \u015fekillenmi\u015ftir. Ancak, Goran ve Komel gibi pop\u00fclist K\u00fcrt siyasi partiler Ba\u015fkan Barzani\u2019nin partisi olan KDP\u2019nin ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131k referandumundaki lider rol\u00fcn\u00fc ve takip edecek olas\u0131 pazarl\u0131klar\u0131 \u015f\u00fcphe ile izlemektedir. Barzani ayn\u0131 zamanda s\u00fcreci, geli\u015fmeleri ve ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131k konusundaki m\u00fczakereleri y\u00f6netmek i\u00e7in yeni bir Ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131k Kurulu olu\u015fturmu\u015ftur. Goran ve KYB\u2019den Hero Talabani bu kurula kat\u0131lmay\u0131, KDP\u2019nin bu kurulu iktidar\u0131 elinde tutmay\u0131 g\u00fcvence alt\u0131na almak \u00fczere kullanaca\u011f\u0131 endi\u015fesi ile reddetmi\u015flerdir[17]<\/a>.<\/p>\nKrizi yat\u0131\u015ft\u0131rmaya y\u00f6nelik i\u00e7 ve d\u0131\u015f inisiyatifler arabuluculuk faaliyetleri i\u00e7erisinde iken, Ba\u011fdat\u2019\u0131n stratejik ihtiyat\u0131n\u0131n iki ila \u00fc\u00e7 ay i\u00e7inde son bulaca\u011f\u0131na dair spek\u00fclasyonlar da vard\u0131r. Bu kav\u015fakta, Ba\u011fdat ve Erbil aras\u0131nda \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kan mali ve idari konular\u0131 \u00e7\u00f6zmek \u00fczere diyalo\u011fu kolayla\u015ft\u0131rmada b\u00f6lgesel ve uluslararas\u0131 payda\u015flar \u00f6nemli bir rol oynayabilir.<\/p>\n
\u00dc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc Senaryo: Silahl\u0131 \u00c7at\u0131\u015fma<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\nTart\u0131\u015fmal\u0131 b\u00f6lgelerde Arap ve T\u00fcrkmen g\u00fcvenlik g\u00fc\u00e7lerinin bir tarafta ve K\u00fcrt g\u00fcvenlik g\u00fc\u00e7lerinin di\u011fer tarafta oldu\u011fu bir askeri \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma en k\u00f6t\u00fc senaryodur. Bu g\u00fc\u00e7ler aras\u0131nda Ha\u015fdi \u015eabi, Ha\u015fdi el-A\u015fari, Irak ordusu ve KBY Pe\u015fmergeleri ve olas\u0131l\u0131kla PKK ile \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmay\u0131 bitiren di\u011fer paramiliter gruplar yer alabilir. Ba\u011fdat\u2019\u0131n Kerk\u00fck ve di\u011fer tart\u0131\u015fmal\u0131 b\u00f6lgelerin kontrol\u00fcn\u00fc yeniden ele ge\u00e7irmek i\u00e7in g\u00fcvenlik g\u00fc\u00e7lerini g\u00f6ndermesi halinde bu \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc senaryo ger\u00e7ekle\u015febilir. Bu a\u015famada Irak h\u00fck\u00fcmetinin g\u00fcvenlik g\u00fc\u00e7lerini Kerk\u00fck\u2019e ya da di\u011fer tart\u0131\u015fmal\u0131 b\u00f6lgelere g\u00f6ndermesi pek m\u00fcmk\u00fcn g\u00f6r\u00fcnmemektedir. Ancak Irak G\u00fcvenlik G\u00fc\u00e7leri (IGG) sadece konvansiyonel askeri kuvvetlerden olu\u015fmamaktad\u0131r. Ha\u015fdi \u015eabi paramiliter milis g\u00fc\u00e7leri art\u0131k IGG\u2019nin par\u00e7as\u0131d\u0131r. Bu paramiliter gruplar\u0131n dini inan\u00e7lar\u0131, mezhepsel aidiyetler, siyasal ba\u011flar ve mali destek kaynaklar\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak farkl\u0131 tabiiyetleri vard\u0131r. Bir\u00e7ok Ha\u015fdi \u015eabi komutan\u0131 KBY\u2019ye kar\u015f\u0131, K\u00fcrt g\u00fcvenlik g\u00fc\u00e7lerini tart\u0131\u015fmal\u0131 b\u00f6lgelerden \u00e7\u0131karmaya s\u00f6z vererek tehditler savurmaktad\u0131r[18]<\/a>. Asaib-i Ehli’l Hakk (AEH) \u00f6nderi Kays el Hazali de \u201cKerk\u00fck Irak\u2019t\u0131r\u201d diyerek Kerk\u00fck\u2019\u00fc geri almak i\u00e7in gerekirse g\u00fc\u00e7 kullanma tehdidinde bulunmu\u015ftur[19]<\/a>. AEH gibi milis g\u00fc\u00e7leri dini ve mali destek anlam\u0131nda \u0130ran\u2019a ba\u011fl\u0131d\u0131r ve \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n bu milislerin KBY\u2019yi askeri m\u00fcdahale ile tehdit etmesine izin verip vermedi\u011fi konusu a\u00e7\u0131k de\u011fildir. Baz\u0131 Ha\u015fdi \u015eabi unsurlar\u0131 ve K\u00fcrt G\u00fcvenlik g\u00fc\u00e7leri aras\u0131nda referandumdan \u00f6nce ve referandum s\u0131ras\u0131nda s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar ya\u015fand\u0131\u011f\u0131na ili\u015fkin haberler yap\u0131lm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r[20]<\/a>. Paramiliter gruplar ve K\u00fcrt g\u00fc\u00e7leri aras\u0131ndaki bu izole \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma ve provokasyonlar\u0131n say\u0131s\u0131nda referandumdan sonra bir art\u0131\u015f meydana gelirse, bu \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131n tart\u0131\u015fmal\u0131 b\u00f6lgelerde etnik \u015fiddete d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015febilme ihtimali vard\u0131r. Tart\u0131\u015fmal\u0131 b\u00f6lgelerde etnik-dini \u015fiddetin patlak vermesi durumunda, ABD ve Koalisyon\u2019un di\u011fer \u00fcyeleri Irak\u2019\u0131 istikrarl\u0131 bir hale getirmede do\u011frudan m\u00fcdahalede bulunma yoluyla, kayda de\u011fer bir rol oynamay\u0131 neredeyse kesin kez b\u0131rakacakt\u0131r. Bu noktada I\u015e\u0130D ter\u00f6ristlerinin Irak\u2019ta h\u00e2l\u00e2 aktif ve Enbar, Ninova ve di\u011fer vilayetlerde birka\u00e7 kent ve kasabay\u0131 kontrol\u00fc alt\u0131nda tuttu\u011funu hat\u0131rda tutmak gerekir.<\/p>\nKrizin Gidi\u015fat\u0131<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\nBa\u011fdat\u2019taki federal h\u00fck\u00fcmet ve KBY aras\u0131ndaki krizin gelecekteki \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm\u00fc iki \u00f6nemli bile\u015feni i\u00e7ermektedir: Tart\u0131\u015fmal\u0131 b\u00f6lgeler konusunu \u00e7\u00f6zmeye y\u00f6nelik bir yol haritas\u0131 ve g\u00fc\u00e7 yetkilerinin devri konusunda bir anla\u015fma zemini. Tart\u0131\u015fmal\u0131 b\u00f6lgeler iki kategoriye ayr\u0131labilir: Kerk\u00fck vilayeti ve KBY\u2019nin tarihsel olarak K\u00fcrdistan B\u00f6lgesine ait oldu\u011funu iddia etti\u011fi di\u011fer vilayetler. Kerk\u00fck; etnik-dini \u00e7e\u015fitlili\u011fi hem K\u00fcrt hem de T\u00fcrkmenler i\u00e7in sembolik bir \u00f6nem ta\u015f\u0131mas\u0131 ve geni\u015f petrol ve gaz kaynaklar\u0131na sahip olmas\u0131 nedeniyle \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm\u00fc en \u00e7etrefilli konu olacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Ba\u011fdat ve Erbil aras\u0131ndaki ge\u00e7mi\u015f ayr\u0131l\u0131klara ve Ba\u011fdat ve Erbil\u2019de h\u00fck\u00fcmet yetkililerinin beyanlar\u0131na dayanarak[21]<\/a> e\u011fer K\u00fcrt m\u00fczakereciler yetki devri konusunda anla\u015fmaya varma konusunda istekli olurlarsa Ba\u011fdat\u2019taki federal y\u00f6netimin Kerk\u00fck ve di\u011fer tart\u0131\u015fmal\u0131 b\u00f6lgelerin idaresinin KBY\u2019ye verilmesini tart\u0131\u015fmaya a\u00e7mas\u0131 olas\u0131d\u0131r[22]<\/a>. Ba\u011fdat\u2019taki federal h\u00fck\u00fcmet Irak\u2019\u0131 bir arada tutmay\u0131 ve egemenlik yetkisini merkezi y\u00f6netimde toplamay\u0131 istemektedir. E\u011fer KBY gaz ve petrol gibi do\u011fal kaynaklar\u0131n ke\u015ffi, idaresi ve gelirine ili\u015fkin yetkilerinden, s\u0131n\u0131r ge\u00e7i\u015fleri kontrol\u00fcnden ve di\u011fer idari yetkilerinden \u00f6d\u00fcn vererek anla\u015fmaya istekli olursa, Ba\u011fdat\u2019taki federal y\u00f6netimin Kerk\u00fck\u2019\u00fcn ve veya di\u011fer tart\u0131\u015fmal\u0131 b\u00f6lgelerin idaresini (k\u0131smen ya da tamamen) KBY\u2019ye devretmeyi de\u011ferlendirebilece\u011fi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclmektedir.<\/p>\nSonu\u00e7<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\nIrak\u2019\u0131n K\u00fcrdistan b\u00f6lgesindeki ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131k referandumu K\u00fcrt tarihinde bir d\u00f6n\u00fcm noktas\u0131d\u0131r. Sand\u0131ktan \u00e7\u0131kan olumlu sonu\u00e7 t\u00fcm d\u00fcnyada pek \u00e7ok etnik milliyet\u00e7i K\u00fcrt i\u00e7in bir zaferi temsil etmektedir. Ancak referandum sadece K\u00fcrtlerin devlet olma aray\u0131\u015f\u0131yla \u015fekillenmemi\u015ftir, daha ziyade arkas\u0131nda ba\u015fka i\u00e7 siyasi ve ekonomik y\u00f6nlendirici fakt\u00f6rler vard\u0131r. Bir yanda KBY \u00f6zerkli\u011fini m\u00fcmk\u00fcn oldu\u011funca korurken idaresi alt\u0131ndaki b\u00f6lgeleri art\u0131rmak i\u00e7in elinden geleni yapacakt\u0131r. Di\u011fer yanda Ba\u011fdat, federal h\u00fck\u00fcmetin egemenlik tekelinden \u00f6d\u00fcn vermeden Irak\u2019\u0131n toprak b\u00fct\u00fcnl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmek i\u00e7in ne gerekiyorsa yapacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n
K\u00fcrdistan B\u00f6lgesel Y\u00f6netimi sadece b\u00f6lgesel eri\u015fimini art\u0131rma aray\u0131\u015f\u0131nda de\u011fil ayn\u0131 zamanda topra\u011f\u0131, hava sahas\u0131 ve kaynaklar\u0131 \u00fczerinde, Ba\u011fdat\u2019\u0131n dikkatli g\u00f6zlerinden uzakta, daha fazla yetki aray\u0131\u015f\u0131ndad\u0131r. Ancak KBY\u2019nin, Kerk\u00fck\u2019\u00fcn ortak idaresi ve kayda de\u011fer bir bi\u00e7imde gaz ve petrol olmak \u00fczere do\u011fal kaynaklar\u0131 ke\u015ffetme ve mali gelirleri konusunda mutabakata varmay\u0131 istemedi\u011fi m\u00fcddet\u00e7e, ayn\u0131 anda hem daha fazla b\u00f6lge ve hem de daha fazla g\u00fc\u00e7 elde etmesi \u00e7ok olas\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcnmemektedir. Bu konular\u0131n arabulucular e\u015fli\u011finde Ba\u011fdat ve Erbil aras\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fclmesi beklenmektedir.<\/p>\n
ABD h\u00fck\u00fcmetinin ve di\u011fer akt\u00f6rlerin rol\u00fcn\u00fcn Ba\u011fdat ve Erbil aras\u0131ndaki diyalo\u011fun kolayla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 ile s\u0131n\u0131rlanmas\u0131 kuvvetle muhtemeldir. Ancak tart\u0131\u015fmal\u0131 b\u00f6lgelerde etnik \u015fiddetin patlak vermesi halinde ABD h\u00fck\u00fcmetinin Irak\u2019\u0131n istikrar kazanmas\u0131nda daha b\u00fcy\u00fck bir rol oynamas\u0131 \u00e7ok daha olas\u0131d\u0131r. Hem Irak hem de koalisyon g\u00fc\u00e7lerinin elde etti\u011fi etkileyici zafere ra\u011fmen I\u015e\u0130D ile sava\u015f hen\u00fcz sonlanmam\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Rawa ve El Kaym gibi \u015fehirler h\u00e2l\u00e2 I\u015e\u0130D\u2019in kontrol\u00fc alt\u0131ndad\u0131r. Etnik-dini \u015fiddetin sebep oldu\u011fu herhangi bir yerel karma\u015fa I\u015e\u0130D\u2019in taze ma\u011flubiyetlerinden s\u0131yr\u0131larak toparlanmas\u0131na yard\u0131mc\u0131 olacakt\u0131r. Irak ve K\u00fcrt g\u00fcvenlik g\u00fc\u00e7leri aras\u0131nda askeri olarak kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya gelme tehlikesi hep bulunmakla birlikte Ba\u011fdat\u2019\u0131n mevcut krizi \u00e7\u00f6zmek i\u00e7in askeri g\u00fc\u00e7 kullanmas\u0131 pek olas\u0131 de\u011fildir.<\/p>\n
Sonu\u00e7 olarak Ba\u011fdat\u2019taki federal y\u00f6netim ve KBY aras\u0131ndaki kriz \u015fu an iki farkl\u0131 \u015fekilde seyretmektedir: \u0130lk olarak, Ba\u011fdat idari ve ekonomik yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 dayatarak Erbil\u2019i bask\u0131 alt\u0131na alma yoluna daha fazla a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131k vermektedir. \u0130kinci olarak iki taraf aras\u0131nda bir diyalog i\u00e7in yerel ve uluslararas\u0131 inisiyatifler arabuluculu\u011fa ba\u015flam\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Gerek Ba\u011fdat gerekse Erbil taleplerinin d\u00fczeyini art\u0131rmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrecek ve nihai bir sonu\u00e7 konusunda beklenen g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerin \u00f6n\u00fcnde bask\u0131 taktikleri kullanacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Referanslar<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n[1]<\/a>Badawi, Tamer (2017): The Kurdish independence Referendum: Drivers & Implications. https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/2017\/09\/21\/the-kurdish-independence-referendum-drivers-implications\/<\/a><\/p>\n[2]<\/a>Rosen, Kenneth (2017): An Ominous Future for Kurdistan\u2019s Minorities. https:\/\/www.theatlantic.com\/international\/archive\/2017\/09\/kurdistan-referendum-iraq-isis-turkey-saddamhussein\/540939<\/a><\/p>\n[3]<\/a>Babri, Saad (2017): Why Kurdish referendum is unlikely to end Iraqi minorities\u2019 dilemma. http:\/\/english.alarabiya.net\/en\/perspective\/features\/2017\/09\/26\/Why-Kurdish-referendum-is-unlikely-to-end-Iraqi-minorities-dilemma.html<\/a><\/p>\n[4]<\/a>Babri, Saad (2017): Why Kurdish referendum is unlikely to end Iraqi minorities\u2019 dilemma. http:\/\/english.alarabiya.net\/en\/perspective\/features\/2017\/09\/26\/Why-Kurdish-referendum-is-unlikely-to-end-Iraqi-minorities-dilemma.html<\/a><\/p>\n[5]<\/a> Barzani, Massoud (2017): https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=YsJsTdy7lYc<\/a><\/p>\n[6]<\/a>Okuducu, Idris (2017): Kurd chief open to \u2018alternate arrangement\u2019 with Baghdad. https:\/\/www.aa.com.tr\/en\/middle-east\/kurd-chief-open-to-alternate-arrangement-with-baghdad\/914417?amp=1<\/a><\/p>\n[7]<\/a>Chmaytelli, Maher and Karadeniz, Tulay (2017): Last flight departs as Iraq imposes ban for Kurdish independence vote. https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/article\/us-mideast-crisiskurds-referendum\/last-flight-departs-as-iraqimposes-ban-for-kurdish-independence-voteidUSKCN1C4113<\/a><\/p>\n[8]<\/a>Rudaw (2017): Iraq takes new measures against Kurdistan, puts officials on trial for referendum. http:\/\/www.rudaw.net\/english\/middleeast\/iraq\/09102017<\/a><\/p>\n[9]<\/a>Zhdannikov, Dmitry (2017): Russia\u2019s Rosneft clinches gas pipeline deal with Iraq\u2019s Kurdistan. https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/article\/us-kurdistanrosneft\/russias-rosneft-clinches-gas-pipelinedeal-with-iraqs-kurdistan-idUSKCN1BT0MQ<\/a><\/p>\n[10]<\/a>Zhdannikov, Dmitry and Bousso, Ron (2017): Chevron drills oil well in Iraqi Kurdish area after two-year gap: sources. https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/article\/us-chevron-exploration\/chevron-drillsoil-well-in-iraqi-kurdish-area-after-two-yeargap-sources-idUSKCN1BV1UG<\/a><\/p>\n[11]<\/a>McKernan, Bethan (2017): Kurdistan referendum: Erdogan says Iraqi Kurds risk \u2018ethnic war\u2019 and threatens military response to vote. https:\/\/www.independent.co.uk\/news\/world\/middle-east\/kurdistan-referendum-kurdish-turkey-military-recep-tayyip-erdogan-iraq-kurds-krg-independence-a7967566.html<\/a><\/p>\n[12]<\/a>Gursel, Kadri (2016): Turkey faces decision over boots on the ground in Syria. https:\/\/www.al-monitor.com\/pulse\/originals\/2016\/09\/turkeysyria-fsa-fails-in-euphrates-shield.html<\/a><\/p>\n[13]<\/a>Reuters (2017): Turkey, Iran, Iraq consider counter-measures over Kurdish referendum. https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/article\/us-mideastcrisis-kurds-referendum-minis\/turkey-iraniraq-consider-counter-measures-over-kurdishreferendum-idUSKCN1BW1EA<\/a><\/p>\n[14]<\/a>Tastekin, Fehim (2017): Turkey, Iran, Iraq in shaky alignment against Iraqi Kurdistan. https:\/\/www.al-monitor.com\/pulse\/originals\/2017\/09\/turkey-iran-iraq-alignment-against-iraqikurdistan.html<\/a><\/p>\n[15]<\/a>Coles, Isabel (2015): Political crisis escalates in Iraq\u2019s Kurdistan region. https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/article\/us-iraq-kurds\/political-crisis-escalates-in-iraqs-kurdistan-region-idUSKCN0S60HX20151012<\/a><\/p>\n[16]<\/a>Rudaw (2017): Kurdistan parliament approves independence referendum on Sept 25. http:\/\/www.rudaw.net\/english\/kurdistan\/15092017<\/a><\/p>\n[17]<\/a>Rudaw (2017): Gorran refuses to join referendum committee as others ponder timeline http:\/\/www.rudaw.net\/english\/kurdistan\/24042017<\/a><\/p>\n[18]<\/a>K24-2017 \u064a\u0628\u0639\u0634\u0644\u0627 \u062f\u0634\u062d\u0644\u0627 \u0629\u0642\u0631\u0648\u0628 \u062d\u0648\u0644\u064a \u064a\u0644\u0639\u0632\u062e\u0644\u0627 \u0644\u0627\u0644\u0642\u062a\u0633\u0627\u0644\u0627 \u062f\u0639\u0628 \u0646\u0627\u062a\u0633\u062f\u0631\u0648\u0643 \u0629\u0645\u062c\u0627\u0647\u0645\u0644 http:\/\/www.kurdistan24.net\/ar\/news\/3a1113a5-b0ed-44b4-8cbb-57de5d3d4e07<\/a><\/p>\n[19]<\/a>Al-Khaza\u2019li, Qais (2017): \u064a\u0644\u0639\u0632\u062e\u0644\u0627 \u0646\u0644\u0639\u064a \u0647\u062f\u0627\u062f\u0639\u062a\u0633\u0627 \u0643\u0648\u0643\u0631\u0643 \u0629\u064a\u0642\u0627\u0631\u0639 \u0646\u0639 \u0627\u0639\u0627\u0641\u062f \u0644\u0627\u062a\u0642\u0644\u0644 https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=N9glBYyW3Lg<\/a><\/p>\n[20]<\/a>Radio Free Europe (2017): Violence In Kirkuk Ahead Of Planned Kurdish Referendum Vote. https:\/\/www.rferl.org\/a\/iraq-kirkukclashes-\/28744118.html<\/a><\/p>\n[21]<\/a>Abadi, Haider (2017): PM calls for \u2018dialogue, dialogue, dialogue\u2019 with Erbil in carrot and stick speech http:\/\/www.rudaw.net\/english\/middleeast\/iraq\/130920171<\/a><\/p>\n[22]<\/a>Rudaw (2017): President Barzani and Iraqi speaker Jabouri agree to dialogue with open agenda. http:\/\/www.rudaw.net\/english\/middleeast\/iraq\/08102017<\/a><\/p>\n <\/p>\n<\/div>
<\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Irak K\u00fcrdistan B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131k referandumu modern Irak tarihinde bir d\u00f6n\u00fcm noktas\u0131n\u0131 temsil etmektedir. 1921 y\u0131l\u0131nda kurulmas\u0131ndan bu yana Irak\u2019\u0131n ilk kez toprak b\u00fct\u00fcnl\u00fc\u011f\u00fc tehlike alt\u0131ndad\u0131r.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":44,"featured_media":9715,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","ngg_post_thumbnail":0},"categories":[361],"tags":[],"asf_pub_issue":[10319],"asf_pub_region":[10321],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9713"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/44"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=9713"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9713\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":23936,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9713\/revisions\/23936"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/9715"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=9713"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=9713"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=9713"},{"taxonomy":"asf_pub_issue","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/asf_pub_issue?post=9713"},{"taxonomy":"asf_pub_region","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/asf_pub_region?post=9713"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}
Uzman G\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fc<\/a> \/ \/ B\u00f6lgesel Politika<\/a><\/h6><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div>\u00d6zet<\/span><\/strong>: Irak K\u00fcrdistan B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131k referandumu modern Irak tarihinde bir d\u00f6n\u00fcm noktas\u0131n\u0131 temsil etmektedir. 1921 y\u0131l\u0131nda kurulmas\u0131ndan bu yana Irak\u2019\u0131n ilk kez toprak b\u00fct\u00fcnl\u00fc\u011f\u00fc tehlike alt\u0131ndad\u0131r. Ba\u011fdat\u2019taki federal h\u00fck\u00fcmet Irak\u2019\u0131n etnik-mezhepsel devletlere ayr\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6nlemek i\u00e7in elinden geleni yapacakt\u0131r. Ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z bir K\u00fcrt devletinin ortaya \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131, milyonlarca K\u00fcrd\u00fcn ya\u015fad\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u0130ran ve T\u00fcrkiye i\u00e7in de ayn\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde tehdit olu\u015fturmaktad\u0131r. Bu k\u0131sa yaz\u0131, Irak K\u00fcrdistan b\u00f6lgesinde yap\u0131lan ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131k referandumunun sonras\u0131nda neler olabilece\u011fini de\u011ferlendirmektedir.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div>K\u00fcrdistan B\u00f6lgesel Y\u00f6netimi\u2019nin (KBY) 25 Eyl\u00fcl 2017\u2019de bir ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131k referandumu yapma karar\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131nda pek \u00e7ok neden bulunmaktad\u0131r ve konunun uzmanlar\u0131 referandumun arkas\u0131nda yatan nedenleri daha detayl\u0131 olarak tart\u0131\u015fmaktad\u0131rlar[1]<\/a>. KBY ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131k referandumunu yapt\u0131 ancak K\u00fcrt y\u00f6neticiler Irak\u2019tan ayr\u0131lman\u0131n yak\u0131n bir gelecekte ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmeyece\u011finin fark\u0131ndalar. Kerk\u00fck ve di\u011fer tart\u0131\u015fmal\u0131 b\u00f6lgeler, \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm\u00fc y\u0131llar alabilecek \u00e7etrefilli etnik-dini konular\u0131 besliyor. Tart\u0131\u015fmal\u0131 b\u00f6lgelerdeki etnik-dinsel az\u0131nl\u0131klar\u0131n pek \u00e7o\u011fu Irak h\u00fck\u00fcmeti ve K\u00fcrdistan B\u00f6lgesel Y\u00f6netimi aras\u0131nda se\u00e7im yapmak zorunda olmaktan endi\u015fe duyuyor[2]<\/a>. KBY\u2019nin tart\u0131\u015fmal\u0131 b\u00f6lgelerde ya\u015fayan T\u00fcrkmen, Arap, \u015eebek, Yezidi ve Hristiyan az\u0131nl\u0131klar\u0131n haklar\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fcvence alt\u0131na alma anlam\u0131nda nas\u0131l bir garanti vermeye haz\u0131rland\u0131\u011f\u0131 belirsiz. K\u00fcrdistan b\u00f6lgesindeki az\u0131nl\u0131klar, \u201cbu referandumun Irak K\u00fcrdistan B\u00f6lgesi (IKB) az\u0131nl\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131n onay\u0131 olmadan kararla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve az\u0131nl\u0131klar\u0131n siyasi g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015flerinin al\u0131nmadan haz\u0131rland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131\u201d belirterek K\u00fcrt siyasi partilerin kendilerini siyasi rantlar\u0131 i\u00e7in kullan\u0131yor olmalar\u0131ndan korkuyor[3]<\/a>. Sonu\u00e7 olarak S\u00fcryani, Ermeni ve T\u00fcrkmen gruplar bir araya gelerek Referandum Y\u00fcksek Kurulu\u2019na, yeni devlette dini ve etnik haklar\u0131n\u0131n koruma alt\u0131na al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 ve az\u0131nl\u0131klar\u0131n kendi b\u00f6lgelerinde \u00f6z-y\u00f6netim hakk\u0131 sa\u011flanmas\u0131n\u0131 isteyen 50 talep sundu[4]<\/a>.<\/p>\nKBY Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Mesud Barzani referandum gecesi hem Irak hem de K\u00fcrdistan B\u00f6lgesinin bayraklar\u0131n\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131k\u00e7a g\u00f6sterildi\u011fi bir konu\u015fma yapt\u0131[5]<\/a>. Ba\u015fkan\u2019\u0131n, referandumun olumlu sonucunun K\u00fcrdistan B\u00f6lgesinin Irak\u2019tan hemen ayr\u0131laca\u011f\u0131 anlam\u0131na gelmedi\u011finin ve KBY\u2019nin anayasal olarak Irak Federal H\u00fck\u00fcmeti\u2019nin egemenlik yetkisi alt\u0131nda kalaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131n fark\u0131nda olmas\u0131 dikkat \u00e7ekicidir. Ayn\u0131 \u015fekilde Ba\u015fkan birka\u00e7 g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmede, KBY\u2019nin ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131k referandumuna alternatiflerden uygulanabilir olanlar\u0131 dikkate almaya a\u00e7\u0131k oldu\u011funu belirtmektedir[6]<\/a>. Referandumun olumlu sonucunun Ba\u011fdat\u2019taki merkezi y\u00f6netime Kerk\u00fck\u2019\u00fcn ve di\u011fer tart\u0131\u015fmal\u0131 b\u00f6lgelerin idaresi, KBY\u2019nin hava sahas\u0131 ve s\u0131n\u0131r ge\u00e7i\u015flerinin kontrol\u00fc ve do\u011fal kaynaklar\u0131n ke\u015ffi ve idaresi de d\u00e2hil olmak \u00fczere KBY\u2019ye daha fazla yetki sa\u011flamas\u0131 konusunda bask\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in bir kald\u0131ra\u00e7 g\u00f6revi g\u00f6rmesi kuvvetle muhtemeldir.<\/p>\nBa\u011fdat ve KBY aras\u0131nda ya\u015fanan siyasi ayr\u0131l\u0131k referandum yap\u0131ld\u0131ktan sonra da b\u00fcy\u00fcyerek devam etmektedir. Mevcut krizin gidi\u015fat\u0131 hakk\u0131nda farkl\u0131 spek\u00fclasyonlar bulunmaktad\u0131r. Bu \u00e7al\u0131\u015fma KBY\u2019nin ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131k referandumundan sonra neler olabilece\u011fine ili\u015fkin \u00fc\u00e7 senaryo \u00f6nermektedir:<\/p>\n
\u0130lk Senaryo: Siyasi A\u00e7maz<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n\u015eu anda geli\u015fmekte olan ilk senaryo Ba\u011fdat\u2019taki Irak merkezi y\u00f6netimi ve Erbil\u2019de bulunan KBY aras\u0131nda bir siyasi \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n ger\u00e7ekle\u015fecek olmas\u0131 ihtimalidir. Irak y\u00f6netimi KBY\u2019nin ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131k referandumu yapma karar\u0131na cevaben idari yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 \u00e7oktan devreye sokmu\u015ftur. Referandum ak\u015fam\u0131 Irak y\u00f6netimi \u00fclke topra\u011f\u0131 \u00fczerindeki egemenlik yetkisini kullanm\u0131\u015f, KBY\u2019ye havaalanlar\u0131n\u0131 ve \u0130ran, T\u00fcrkiye ve Suriye aras\u0131ndaki s\u0131n\u0131r ge\u00e7i\u015flerini devretmesi talimat\u0131n\u0131 vermi\u015ftir. Ayr\u0131ca Ba\u011fdat\u2019ta bulunan merkezi Irak y\u00f6netimi ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131k oylamas\u0131na misilleme olarak Irak K\u00fcrdistan\u0131\u2019na hava yoluyla ula\u015f\u0131ma bir yasaklama getirmi\u015ftir. Bu hamle di\u011fer pek \u00e7ok b\u00f6lgesel ve uluslararas\u0131 h\u00fck\u00fcmetin geni\u015f \u00e7apta itiraz\u0131 ile kar\u015f\u0131la\u015fm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r[7]<\/a>. Buna ek olarak Irak y\u00f6netimi, Irak h\u00fck\u00fcmeti i\u00e7erisinde ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131k referandumunda oy kullanan K\u00fcrt yetkilileri a\u00e7\u0131\u011fa alma, i\u015ften \u00e7\u0131karma ve muhtemelen haklar\u0131nda dava a\u00e7ma niyetindedir[8]<\/a>. Irak y\u00f6netimi, tart\u0131\u015fmal\u0131 b\u00f6lgelerde KBY ile s\u00f6zle\u015fme yaparak \u00e7al\u0131\u015fan t\u00fcm petrol \u015firketlerine yasak koymu\u015ftur ve yabanc\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n KBY\u2019nin petrol\u00fcn\u00fc almay\u0131 b\u0131rakmalar\u0131 i\u00e7in bask\u0131 yapma niyetindedir. Ancak Irak y\u00f6netiminin kar\u015f\u0131 y\u00f6ntemlerinde \u015fu ana kadar pek ba\u015far\u0131l\u0131 oldu\u011fu s\u00f6ylenemez. Aktar\u0131lan bilgiler, Rusya\u2019dan Rosneft\u2019in KBY ile K\u00fcrdistan topraklar\u0131nda do\u011fal gaz boru hatt\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131na ili\u015fkin olarak yeni anla\u015fmalar yapmaya ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcndedir[9]<\/a>. Buna ilaveten, Chevron iki y\u0131ll\u0131k aradan sonra 2017 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n Eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131nda, ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131k referandumu plan\u0131 konusunda uluslararas\u0131 tart\u0131\u015fmalara ra\u011fmen b\u00f6lgeye g\u00fcveni i\u015faret eden bir hamle yaparak Irak K\u00fcrdistan\u0131\u2019nda ilk kuyusunu a\u00e7m\u0131\u015f ve sondaj\u0131na ba\u015flam\u0131\u015ft\u0131r[10]<\/a>. Irak y\u00f6netiminin KBY\u2019ye kar\u015f\u0131 tedbirlerinin birle\u015fik etkisi \u015f\u00fcphesiz Ba\u011fdat ve Erbil aras\u0131ndaki bir siyasi \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma tehdidi olu\u015fturmaktad\u0131r ki bir uzla\u015fmaya var\u0131lamamas\u0131 durumunda bu gerginlik 2018 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n Nisan ay\u0131nda yap\u0131lmas\u0131 planlanan Irak parlamentosu se\u00e7imlerinin ertelenmesine neden olabilir.<\/p>\nBenzer \u015fekilde b\u00f6lgesel ve uluslararas\u0131 payda\u015flar da Ba\u011fdat\u2019taki federal y\u00f6netim ve Erbil\u2019deki KBY aras\u0131ndaki krizin geli\u015fimi ve seyrini etkileyecektir. T\u00fcrk h\u00fck\u00fcmeti ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131k referandumuna cevaben KBY\u2019yi siyasi ve ekonomik yapt\u0131r\u0131mlarda bulunmakla tehdit etmi\u015ftir. Ayr\u0131ca T\u00fcrk medyas\u0131 da Kerk\u00fck\u2019teki ve tart\u0131\u015fmal\u0131 di\u011fer b\u00f6lgelerdeki T\u00fcrkmen az\u0131nl\u0131\u011f\u0131n referandumun bir sonucu olarak hedef al\u0131nmas\u0131 halinde KBY\u2019ye askeri m\u00fcdahalede bulunma tehdidinde bulunan \u00fcst d\u00fczey T\u00fcrk yetkililerin a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131na yer vermi\u015ftir[11]<\/a>. Ancak, T\u00fcrk h\u00fck\u00fcmetinin \u015fu a\u015famada Irak\u2019a askeri m\u00fcdahalede bulunmas\u0131 olas\u0131 de\u011fildir, zira s\u0131n\u0131rlar\u0131 d\u0131\u015f\u0131na askeri m\u00fcdahalenin do\u011fas\u0131 ve \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcs\u00fc hakk\u0131nda olduk\u00e7a ihtiyatl\u0131 hareket etmektedir[12]<\/a>.<\/p>\n\u0130ran da ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131k referandumuna yan\u0131t olarak KBY\u2019ye kar\u015f\u0131 siyasi ve ekonomik yapt\u0131r\u0131mlarda bulunma tehdidinde bulunmu\u015ftur[13]<\/a>. T\u00fcrkiye ve \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n KBY\u2019ye kar\u015f\u0131 siyasi ve ekonomik yapt\u0131r\u0131mlarda bulunmaya karar vermesi halinde, Ba\u011fdat ve KBY aras\u0131nda yap\u0131c\u0131 bir diyalo\u011fun ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesi ihtimali \u00f6nemli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde azalacakt\u0131r zira KBY Ba\u011fdat\u2019\u0131 K\u00fcrt halk\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 ekonomik ve siyasi bir ablukan\u0131n \u00f6nc\u00fcl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc yapmakla su\u00e7layacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\nT\u00fcrkiye, \u0130ran ve Irak\u2019\u0131n KBY\u2019ye kar\u015f\u0131 ittifak\u0131n\u0131n gere\u011finden fazla abart\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 teslim ederek; bu akt\u00f6rlerin \u00f6nceliklerinin birbirlerinden fakl\u0131 oldu\u011funu hat\u0131rlamak \u00f6nemlidir. Bu \u00fclkelerin ge\u00e7mi\u015f sicilleri ile farkl\u0131 ve s\u0131kl\u0131kla birbiriyle \u00e7at\u0131\u015fan \u00f6ncelikleri dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, mevcut koordinasyonun s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclmesi ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131lmaz olarak zor olacakt\u0131r. T\u00fcrk h\u00fck\u00fcmetinin KBY ile \u00f6nemli ekonomik ba\u011flar\u0131 bulunmaktad\u0131r; bu nedenledir ki T\u00fcrkiye halihaz\u0131rda KBY ile s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmekte oldu\u011fu k\u00e2rl\u0131 ili\u015fkiden kolay bir \u015fekilde vazge\u00e7meyecektir. \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n KBY ile \u00f6nemli ekonomik ba\u011flar\u0131 olsa da Ba\u011fdat ile ili\u015fkisi stratejik olarak daha \u00f6nemlidir. T\u00fcrkiye ve \u0130ran aras\u0131nda ge\u00e7mi\u015ften gelen rekabeti g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcnde bulundurmak da \u00f6nem ta\u015f\u0131maktad\u0131r. \u0130ki \u00fclke de b\u00f6lgede ve bilhassa Irak K\u00fcrdistan B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nde etkili olma konusunda s\u0131k\u0131 bir yar\u0131\u015f i\u00e7indedir. Bu rekabet her iki taraf\u0131n da KBY ile ili\u015fkilerini bozma iste\u011fine ket vurabilir. \u0130ran, T\u00fcrkiye ve Ba\u011fdat\u2019\u0131n PKK, PJAK, ekonomik \u00e7\u0131karlar ve di\u011fer konular s\u00f6z konusu olunca da farkl\u0131 \u00f6ncelikleri vard\u0131r. T\u00fcrkiye, \u0130ran ve Ba\u011fdat\u2019\u0131n KBY\u2019ye kar\u015f\u0131 halihaz\u0131rdaki ittifaklar\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki aylara kadar dayanmas\u0131 pek m\u00fcmk\u00fcn g\u00f6r\u00fcnmemektedir[14]<\/a>.<\/p>\n\u0130kinci Senaryo: Stratejik \u0130htiyat<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\nReferandumun k\u00f6r\u00fckledi\u011fi sert r\u00fczg\u00e2r\u0131n ge\u00e7mesini beklerken, Ba\u011fdat -Irak y\u00f6netimi \u00fclkenin toprak b\u00fct\u00fcnl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcne ili\u015fkin b\u00f6lgesel ve uluslararas\u0131 deste\u011fi avantaj olarak kullanarak- agresif siyasi retori\u011fe kar\u015f\u0131 yan\u0131t\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 tutarak ve k\u0131s\u0131tl\u0131 idari yapt\u0131r\u0131mlarda bulunmak yoluyla stratejik ihtiyat uygulayabilir. Uygulamada, Ba\u011fdat taraf\u0131ndan dayat\u0131lan herhangi bir idari eylem, siyasal ya da ekonomik yapt\u0131r\u0131m K\u00fcrdistan\u2019\u0131 hareket olana\u011f\u0131ndan yoksun b\u0131rakmayacakt\u0131r. Dahas\u0131 bu ko\u015fullarda b\u00fcy\u00fck bir askeri harek\u00e2t da \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclmemektedir.<\/p>\n
Bu ikinci senaryo, Ba\u015fkan Barzani\u2019ye referandum sonu\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 2017 Kas\u0131m ay\u0131 i\u00e7in planlanan parlamento ve ba\u015fkanl\u0131k se\u00e7imi \u00f6ncesinde i\u00e7 siyasi konulara de\u011finmede kullanmas\u0131 i\u00e7in yeteri kadar zaman tan\u0131yacakt\u0131r. \u015eu anki ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131k referandumu konusunda Ba\u011fdat ile ya\u015fanan krizin \u00f6ncesinde, b\u00f6lgenin ba\u015fkanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 konusunda bir t\u00fcr siyasi \u00e7\u0131kmaz oldu\u011fundan bahsetmek \u00f6nemlidir. Barzani\u2019nin g\u00f6rev s\u00fcresi 20 A\u011fustos 2015 y\u0131l\u0131nda I\u015e\u0130D\u2019e kar\u015f\u0131 sava\u015f devam ederken sona ermi\u015ftir[15]<\/a>. KBY ba\u015fkanl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n yetkileri konusunda farkl\u0131 K\u00fcrt siyasi partileri aras\u0131ndaki anla\u015fmazl\u0131k b\u00f6lgenin meclisini \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmaz hale getiren bir siyasi k\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcme yol a\u00e7m\u0131\u015f ve \u00e7o\u011funlu\u011fu muhalif Goran Partisi\u2019nden olmak \u00fczere baz\u0131 KBY bakanlar\u0131n\u0131n g\u00f6revden al\u0131nmas\u0131na sebep olmu\u015ftur. Referandumun yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131 etno-milliyet\u00e7i momentum b\u00f6lge meclisinin iki y\u0131ld\u0131r ilk kez, 15 Eyl\u00fcl 2017\u2019de ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131k referandumunu onaylamak \u00fczere toplanmas\u0131na olanak sa\u011flam\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Meclis, 68 \u00fcyenin 65\u2019inin deste\u011fiyle, oy \u00e7oklu\u011fuyla, referanduma onay vermi\u015ftir. Toplamda 111 \u00fcyeden sadece 68 vekilin meclis oturumuna kat\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 detay\u0131 \u00f6nem ta\u015f\u0131maktad\u0131r[16]<\/a>. KBY\u2019nin referandum sonu\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6nemli siyasi partileri birle\u015ftirmek i\u00e7in yeni bir siyasi uzla\u015fmaya zemin olarak kullanma aray\u0131\u015f\u0131nda olaca\u011f\u0131 neredeyse kesindir. Birle\u015fik bir K\u00fcrt cephesi olu\u015fturuldu\u011funda KBY Ba\u011fdat\u2019taki federal y\u00f6netimle diyalo\u011fa haz\u0131r olacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\nK\u00fcrdistan\u2019da referandum sonras\u0131 siyasi atmosfer \u00f6nemli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde etnik milliyet\u00e7i duyguyla \u015fekillenmi\u015ftir. Ancak, Goran ve Komel gibi pop\u00fclist K\u00fcrt siyasi partiler Ba\u015fkan Barzani\u2019nin partisi olan KDP\u2019nin ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131k referandumundaki lider rol\u00fcn\u00fc ve takip edecek olas\u0131 pazarl\u0131klar\u0131 \u015f\u00fcphe ile izlemektedir. Barzani ayn\u0131 zamanda s\u00fcreci, geli\u015fmeleri ve ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131k konusundaki m\u00fczakereleri y\u00f6netmek i\u00e7in yeni bir Ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131k Kurulu olu\u015fturmu\u015ftur. Goran ve KYB\u2019den Hero Talabani bu kurula kat\u0131lmay\u0131, KDP\u2019nin bu kurulu iktidar\u0131 elinde tutmay\u0131 g\u00fcvence alt\u0131na almak \u00fczere kullanaca\u011f\u0131 endi\u015fesi ile reddetmi\u015flerdir[17]<\/a>.<\/p>\nKrizi yat\u0131\u015ft\u0131rmaya y\u00f6nelik i\u00e7 ve d\u0131\u015f inisiyatifler arabuluculuk faaliyetleri i\u00e7erisinde iken, Ba\u011fdat\u2019\u0131n stratejik ihtiyat\u0131n\u0131n iki ila \u00fc\u00e7 ay i\u00e7inde son bulaca\u011f\u0131na dair spek\u00fclasyonlar da vard\u0131r. Bu kav\u015fakta, Ba\u011fdat ve Erbil aras\u0131nda \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kan mali ve idari konular\u0131 \u00e7\u00f6zmek \u00fczere diyalo\u011fu kolayla\u015ft\u0131rmada b\u00f6lgesel ve uluslararas\u0131 payda\u015flar \u00f6nemli bir rol oynayabilir.<\/p>\n
\u00dc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc Senaryo: Silahl\u0131 \u00c7at\u0131\u015fma<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\nTart\u0131\u015fmal\u0131 b\u00f6lgelerde Arap ve T\u00fcrkmen g\u00fcvenlik g\u00fc\u00e7lerinin bir tarafta ve K\u00fcrt g\u00fcvenlik g\u00fc\u00e7lerinin di\u011fer tarafta oldu\u011fu bir askeri \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma en k\u00f6t\u00fc senaryodur. Bu g\u00fc\u00e7ler aras\u0131nda Ha\u015fdi \u015eabi, Ha\u015fdi el-A\u015fari, Irak ordusu ve KBY Pe\u015fmergeleri ve olas\u0131l\u0131kla PKK ile \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmay\u0131 bitiren di\u011fer paramiliter gruplar yer alabilir. Ba\u011fdat\u2019\u0131n Kerk\u00fck ve di\u011fer tart\u0131\u015fmal\u0131 b\u00f6lgelerin kontrol\u00fcn\u00fc yeniden ele ge\u00e7irmek i\u00e7in g\u00fcvenlik g\u00fc\u00e7lerini g\u00f6ndermesi halinde bu \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc senaryo ger\u00e7ekle\u015febilir. Bu a\u015famada Irak h\u00fck\u00fcmetinin g\u00fcvenlik g\u00fc\u00e7lerini Kerk\u00fck\u2019e ya da di\u011fer tart\u0131\u015fmal\u0131 b\u00f6lgelere g\u00f6ndermesi pek m\u00fcmk\u00fcn g\u00f6r\u00fcnmemektedir. Ancak Irak G\u00fcvenlik G\u00fc\u00e7leri (IGG) sadece konvansiyonel askeri kuvvetlerden olu\u015fmamaktad\u0131r. Ha\u015fdi \u015eabi paramiliter milis g\u00fc\u00e7leri art\u0131k IGG\u2019nin par\u00e7as\u0131d\u0131r. Bu paramiliter gruplar\u0131n dini inan\u00e7lar\u0131, mezhepsel aidiyetler, siyasal ba\u011flar ve mali destek kaynaklar\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak farkl\u0131 tabiiyetleri vard\u0131r. Bir\u00e7ok Ha\u015fdi \u015eabi komutan\u0131 KBY\u2019ye kar\u015f\u0131, K\u00fcrt g\u00fcvenlik g\u00fc\u00e7lerini tart\u0131\u015fmal\u0131 b\u00f6lgelerden \u00e7\u0131karmaya s\u00f6z vererek tehditler savurmaktad\u0131r[18]<\/a>. Asaib-i Ehli’l Hakk (AEH) \u00f6nderi Kays el Hazali de \u201cKerk\u00fck Irak\u2019t\u0131r\u201d diyerek Kerk\u00fck\u2019\u00fc geri almak i\u00e7in gerekirse g\u00fc\u00e7 kullanma tehdidinde bulunmu\u015ftur[19]<\/a>. AEH gibi milis g\u00fc\u00e7leri dini ve mali destek anlam\u0131nda \u0130ran\u2019a ba\u011fl\u0131d\u0131r ve \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n bu milislerin KBY\u2019yi askeri m\u00fcdahale ile tehdit etmesine izin verip vermedi\u011fi konusu a\u00e7\u0131k de\u011fildir. Baz\u0131 Ha\u015fdi \u015eabi unsurlar\u0131 ve K\u00fcrt G\u00fcvenlik g\u00fc\u00e7leri aras\u0131nda referandumdan \u00f6nce ve referandum s\u0131ras\u0131nda s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar ya\u015fand\u0131\u011f\u0131na ili\u015fkin haberler yap\u0131lm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r[20]<\/a>. Paramiliter gruplar ve K\u00fcrt g\u00fc\u00e7leri aras\u0131ndaki bu izole \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma ve provokasyonlar\u0131n say\u0131s\u0131nda referandumdan sonra bir art\u0131\u015f meydana gelirse, bu \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131n tart\u0131\u015fmal\u0131 b\u00f6lgelerde etnik \u015fiddete d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015febilme ihtimali vard\u0131r. Tart\u0131\u015fmal\u0131 b\u00f6lgelerde etnik-dini \u015fiddetin patlak vermesi durumunda, ABD ve Koalisyon\u2019un di\u011fer \u00fcyeleri Irak\u2019\u0131 istikrarl\u0131 bir hale getirmede do\u011frudan m\u00fcdahalede bulunma yoluyla, kayda de\u011fer bir rol oynamay\u0131 neredeyse kesin kez b\u0131rakacakt\u0131r. Bu noktada I\u015e\u0130D ter\u00f6ristlerinin Irak\u2019ta h\u00e2l\u00e2 aktif ve Enbar, Ninova ve di\u011fer vilayetlerde birka\u00e7 kent ve kasabay\u0131 kontrol\u00fc alt\u0131nda tuttu\u011funu hat\u0131rda tutmak gerekir.<\/p>\nKrizin Gidi\u015fat\u0131<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\nBa\u011fdat\u2019taki federal h\u00fck\u00fcmet ve KBY aras\u0131ndaki krizin gelecekteki \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm\u00fc iki \u00f6nemli bile\u015feni i\u00e7ermektedir: Tart\u0131\u015fmal\u0131 b\u00f6lgeler konusunu \u00e7\u00f6zmeye y\u00f6nelik bir yol haritas\u0131 ve g\u00fc\u00e7 yetkilerinin devri konusunda bir anla\u015fma zemini. Tart\u0131\u015fmal\u0131 b\u00f6lgeler iki kategoriye ayr\u0131labilir: Kerk\u00fck vilayeti ve KBY\u2019nin tarihsel olarak K\u00fcrdistan B\u00f6lgesine ait oldu\u011funu iddia etti\u011fi di\u011fer vilayetler. Kerk\u00fck; etnik-dini \u00e7e\u015fitlili\u011fi hem K\u00fcrt hem de T\u00fcrkmenler i\u00e7in sembolik bir \u00f6nem ta\u015f\u0131mas\u0131 ve geni\u015f petrol ve gaz kaynaklar\u0131na sahip olmas\u0131 nedeniyle \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm\u00fc en \u00e7etrefilli konu olacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Ba\u011fdat ve Erbil aras\u0131ndaki ge\u00e7mi\u015f ayr\u0131l\u0131klara ve Ba\u011fdat ve Erbil\u2019de h\u00fck\u00fcmet yetkililerinin beyanlar\u0131na dayanarak[21]<\/a> e\u011fer K\u00fcrt m\u00fczakereciler yetki devri konusunda anla\u015fmaya varma konusunda istekli olurlarsa Ba\u011fdat\u2019taki federal y\u00f6netimin Kerk\u00fck ve di\u011fer tart\u0131\u015fmal\u0131 b\u00f6lgelerin idaresinin KBY\u2019ye verilmesini tart\u0131\u015fmaya a\u00e7mas\u0131 olas\u0131d\u0131r[22]<\/a>. Ba\u011fdat\u2019taki federal h\u00fck\u00fcmet Irak\u2019\u0131 bir arada tutmay\u0131 ve egemenlik yetkisini merkezi y\u00f6netimde toplamay\u0131 istemektedir. E\u011fer KBY gaz ve petrol gibi do\u011fal kaynaklar\u0131n ke\u015ffi, idaresi ve gelirine ili\u015fkin yetkilerinden, s\u0131n\u0131r ge\u00e7i\u015fleri kontrol\u00fcnden ve di\u011fer idari yetkilerinden \u00f6d\u00fcn vererek anla\u015fmaya istekli olursa, Ba\u011fdat\u2019taki federal y\u00f6netimin Kerk\u00fck\u2019\u00fcn ve veya di\u011fer tart\u0131\u015fmal\u0131 b\u00f6lgelerin idaresini (k\u0131smen ya da tamamen) KBY\u2019ye devretmeyi de\u011ferlendirebilece\u011fi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclmektedir.<\/p>\nSonu\u00e7<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\nIrak\u2019\u0131n K\u00fcrdistan b\u00f6lgesindeki ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131k referandumu K\u00fcrt tarihinde bir d\u00f6n\u00fcm noktas\u0131d\u0131r. Sand\u0131ktan \u00e7\u0131kan olumlu sonu\u00e7 t\u00fcm d\u00fcnyada pek \u00e7ok etnik milliyet\u00e7i K\u00fcrt i\u00e7in bir zaferi temsil etmektedir. Ancak referandum sadece K\u00fcrtlerin devlet olma aray\u0131\u015f\u0131yla \u015fekillenmemi\u015ftir, daha ziyade arkas\u0131nda ba\u015fka i\u00e7 siyasi ve ekonomik y\u00f6nlendirici fakt\u00f6rler vard\u0131r. Bir yanda KBY \u00f6zerkli\u011fini m\u00fcmk\u00fcn oldu\u011funca korurken idaresi alt\u0131ndaki b\u00f6lgeleri art\u0131rmak i\u00e7in elinden geleni yapacakt\u0131r. Di\u011fer yanda Ba\u011fdat, federal h\u00fck\u00fcmetin egemenlik tekelinden \u00f6d\u00fcn vermeden Irak\u2019\u0131n toprak b\u00fct\u00fcnl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmek i\u00e7in ne gerekiyorsa yapacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n
K\u00fcrdistan B\u00f6lgesel Y\u00f6netimi sadece b\u00f6lgesel eri\u015fimini art\u0131rma aray\u0131\u015f\u0131nda de\u011fil ayn\u0131 zamanda topra\u011f\u0131, hava sahas\u0131 ve kaynaklar\u0131 \u00fczerinde, Ba\u011fdat\u2019\u0131n dikkatli g\u00f6zlerinden uzakta, daha fazla yetki aray\u0131\u015f\u0131ndad\u0131r. Ancak KBY\u2019nin, Kerk\u00fck\u2019\u00fcn ortak idaresi ve kayda de\u011fer bir bi\u00e7imde gaz ve petrol olmak \u00fczere do\u011fal kaynaklar\u0131 ke\u015ffetme ve mali gelirleri konusunda mutabakata varmay\u0131 istemedi\u011fi m\u00fcddet\u00e7e, ayn\u0131 anda hem daha fazla b\u00f6lge ve hem de daha fazla g\u00fc\u00e7 elde etmesi \u00e7ok olas\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcnmemektedir. Bu konular\u0131n arabulucular e\u015fli\u011finde Ba\u011fdat ve Erbil aras\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fclmesi beklenmektedir.<\/p>\n
ABD h\u00fck\u00fcmetinin ve di\u011fer akt\u00f6rlerin rol\u00fcn\u00fcn Ba\u011fdat ve Erbil aras\u0131ndaki diyalo\u011fun kolayla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 ile s\u0131n\u0131rlanmas\u0131 kuvvetle muhtemeldir. Ancak tart\u0131\u015fmal\u0131 b\u00f6lgelerde etnik \u015fiddetin patlak vermesi halinde ABD h\u00fck\u00fcmetinin Irak\u2019\u0131n istikrar kazanmas\u0131nda daha b\u00fcy\u00fck bir rol oynamas\u0131 \u00e7ok daha olas\u0131d\u0131r. Hem Irak hem de koalisyon g\u00fc\u00e7lerinin elde etti\u011fi etkileyici zafere ra\u011fmen I\u015e\u0130D ile sava\u015f hen\u00fcz sonlanmam\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Rawa ve El Kaym gibi \u015fehirler h\u00e2l\u00e2 I\u015e\u0130D\u2019in kontrol\u00fc alt\u0131ndad\u0131r. Etnik-dini \u015fiddetin sebep oldu\u011fu herhangi bir yerel karma\u015fa I\u015e\u0130D\u2019in taze ma\u011flubiyetlerinden s\u0131yr\u0131larak toparlanmas\u0131na yard\u0131mc\u0131 olacakt\u0131r. Irak ve K\u00fcrt g\u00fcvenlik g\u00fc\u00e7leri aras\u0131nda askeri olarak kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya gelme tehlikesi hep bulunmakla birlikte Ba\u011fdat\u2019\u0131n mevcut krizi \u00e7\u00f6zmek i\u00e7in askeri g\u00fc\u00e7 kullanmas\u0131 pek olas\u0131 de\u011fildir.<\/p>\n
Sonu\u00e7 olarak Ba\u011fdat\u2019taki federal y\u00f6netim ve KBY aras\u0131ndaki kriz \u015fu an iki farkl\u0131 \u015fekilde seyretmektedir: \u0130lk olarak, Ba\u011fdat idari ve ekonomik yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 dayatarak Erbil\u2019i bask\u0131 alt\u0131na alma yoluna daha fazla a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131k vermektedir. \u0130kinci olarak iki taraf aras\u0131nda bir diyalog i\u00e7in yerel ve uluslararas\u0131 inisiyatifler arabuluculu\u011fa ba\u015flam\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Gerek Ba\u011fdat gerekse Erbil taleplerinin d\u00fczeyini art\u0131rmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrecek ve nihai bir sonu\u00e7 konusunda beklenen g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerin \u00f6n\u00fcnde bask\u0131 taktikleri kullanacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Referanslar<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n[1]<\/a>Badawi, Tamer (2017): The Kurdish independence Referendum: Drivers & Implications. https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/2017\/09\/21\/the-kurdish-independence-referendum-drivers-implications\/<\/a><\/p>\n[2]<\/a>Rosen, Kenneth (2017): An Ominous Future for Kurdistan\u2019s Minorities. https:\/\/www.theatlantic.com\/international\/archive\/2017\/09\/kurdistan-referendum-iraq-isis-turkey-saddamhussein\/540939<\/a><\/p>\n[3]<\/a>Babri, Saad (2017): Why Kurdish referendum is unlikely to end Iraqi minorities\u2019 dilemma. http:\/\/english.alarabiya.net\/en\/perspective\/features\/2017\/09\/26\/Why-Kurdish-referendum-is-unlikely-to-end-Iraqi-minorities-dilemma.html<\/a><\/p>\n[4]<\/a>Babri, Saad (2017): Why Kurdish referendum is unlikely to end Iraqi minorities\u2019 dilemma. http:\/\/english.alarabiya.net\/en\/perspective\/features\/2017\/09\/26\/Why-Kurdish-referendum-is-unlikely-to-end-Iraqi-minorities-dilemma.html<\/a><\/p>\n[5]<\/a> Barzani, Massoud (2017): https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=YsJsTdy7lYc<\/a><\/p>\n[6]<\/a>Okuducu, Idris (2017): Kurd chief open to \u2018alternate arrangement\u2019 with Baghdad. https:\/\/www.aa.com.tr\/en\/middle-east\/kurd-chief-open-to-alternate-arrangement-with-baghdad\/914417?amp=1<\/a><\/p>\n[7]<\/a>Chmaytelli, Maher and Karadeniz, Tulay (2017): Last flight departs as Iraq imposes ban for Kurdish independence vote. https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/article\/us-mideast-crisiskurds-referendum\/last-flight-departs-as-iraqimposes-ban-for-kurdish-independence-voteidUSKCN1C4113<\/a><\/p>\n[8]<\/a>Rudaw (2017): Iraq takes new measures against Kurdistan, puts officials on trial for referendum. http:\/\/www.rudaw.net\/english\/middleeast\/iraq\/09102017<\/a><\/p>\n[9]<\/a>Zhdannikov, Dmitry (2017): Russia\u2019s Rosneft clinches gas pipeline deal with Iraq\u2019s Kurdistan. https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/article\/us-kurdistanrosneft\/russias-rosneft-clinches-gas-pipelinedeal-with-iraqs-kurdistan-idUSKCN1BT0MQ<\/a><\/p>\n[10]<\/a>Zhdannikov, Dmitry and Bousso, Ron (2017): Chevron drills oil well in Iraqi Kurdish area after two-year gap: sources. https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/article\/us-chevron-exploration\/chevron-drillsoil-well-in-iraqi-kurdish-area-after-two-yeargap-sources-idUSKCN1BV1UG<\/a><\/p>\n[11]<\/a>McKernan, Bethan (2017): Kurdistan referendum: Erdogan says Iraqi Kurds risk \u2018ethnic war\u2019 and threatens military response to vote. https:\/\/www.independent.co.uk\/news\/world\/middle-east\/kurdistan-referendum-kurdish-turkey-military-recep-tayyip-erdogan-iraq-kurds-krg-independence-a7967566.html<\/a><\/p>\n[12]<\/a>Gursel, Kadri (2016): Turkey faces decision over boots on the ground in Syria. https:\/\/www.al-monitor.com\/pulse\/originals\/2016\/09\/turkeysyria-fsa-fails-in-euphrates-shield.html<\/a><\/p>\n[13]<\/a>Reuters (2017): Turkey, Iran, Iraq consider counter-measures over Kurdish referendum. https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/article\/us-mideastcrisis-kurds-referendum-minis\/turkey-iraniraq-consider-counter-measures-over-kurdishreferendum-idUSKCN1BW1EA<\/a><\/p>\n[14]<\/a>Tastekin, Fehim (2017): Turkey, Iran, Iraq in shaky alignment against Iraqi Kurdistan. https:\/\/www.al-monitor.com\/pulse\/originals\/2017\/09\/turkey-iran-iraq-alignment-against-iraqikurdistan.html<\/a><\/p>\n[15]<\/a>Coles, Isabel (2015): Political crisis escalates in Iraq\u2019s Kurdistan region. https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/article\/us-iraq-kurds\/political-crisis-escalates-in-iraqs-kurdistan-region-idUSKCN0S60HX20151012<\/a><\/p>\n[16]<\/a>Rudaw (2017): Kurdistan parliament approves independence referendum on Sept 25. http:\/\/www.rudaw.net\/english\/kurdistan\/15092017<\/a><\/p>\n[17]<\/a>Rudaw (2017): Gorran refuses to join referendum committee as others ponder timeline http:\/\/www.rudaw.net\/english\/kurdistan\/24042017<\/a><\/p>\n[18]<\/a>K24-2017 \u064a\u0628\u0639\u0634\u0644\u0627 \u062f\u0634\u062d\u0644\u0627 \u0629\u0642\u0631\u0648\u0628 \u062d\u0648\u0644\u064a \u064a\u0644\u0639\u0632\u062e\u0644\u0627 \u0644\u0627\u0644\u0642\u062a\u0633\u0627\u0644\u0627 \u062f\u0639\u0628 \u0646\u0627\u062a\u0633\u062f\u0631\u0648\u0643 \u0629\u0645\u062c\u0627\u0647\u0645\u0644 http:\/\/www.kurdistan24.net\/ar\/news\/3a1113a5-b0ed-44b4-8cbb-57de5d3d4e07<\/a><\/p>\n[19]<\/a>Al-Khaza\u2019li, Qais (2017): \u064a\u0644\u0639\u0632\u062e\u0644\u0627 \u0646\u0644\u0639\u064a \u0647\u062f\u0627\u062f\u0639\u062a\u0633\u0627 \u0643\u0648\u0643\u0631\u0643 \u0629\u064a\u0642\u0627\u0631\u0639 \u0646\u0639 \u0627\u0639\u0627\u0641\u062f \u0644\u0627\u062a\u0642\u0644\u0644 https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=N9glBYyW3Lg<\/a><\/p>\n[20]<\/a>Radio Free Europe (2017): Violence In Kirkuk Ahead Of Planned Kurdish Referendum Vote. https:\/\/www.rferl.org\/a\/iraq-kirkukclashes-\/28744118.html<\/a><\/p>\n[21]<\/a>Abadi, Haider (2017): PM calls for \u2018dialogue, dialogue, dialogue\u2019 with Erbil in carrot and stick speech http:\/\/www.rudaw.net\/english\/middleeast\/iraq\/130920171<\/a><\/p>\n[22]<\/a>Rudaw (2017): President Barzani and Iraqi speaker Jabouri agree to dialogue with open agenda. http:\/\/www.rudaw.net\/english\/middleeast\/iraq\/08102017<\/a><\/p>\n <\/p>\n<\/div>
<\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Irak K\u00fcrdistan B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131k referandumu modern Irak tarihinde bir d\u00f6n\u00fcm noktas\u0131n\u0131 temsil etmektedir. 1921 y\u0131l\u0131nda kurulmas\u0131ndan bu yana Irak\u2019\u0131n ilk kez toprak b\u00fct\u00fcnl\u00fc\u011f\u00fc tehlike alt\u0131ndad\u0131r.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":44,"featured_media":9715,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","ngg_post_thumbnail":0},"categories":[361],"tags":[],"asf_pub_issue":[10319],"asf_pub_region":[10321],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9713"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/44"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=9713"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9713\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":23936,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9713\/revisions\/23936"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/9715"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=9713"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=9713"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=9713"},{"taxonomy":"asf_pub_issue","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/asf_pub_issue?post=9713"},{"taxonomy":"asf_pub_region","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/asf_pub_region?post=9713"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}
\u00d6zet<\/span><\/strong>: Irak K\u00fcrdistan B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131k referandumu modern Irak tarihinde bir d\u00f6n\u00fcm noktas\u0131n\u0131 temsil etmektedir. 1921 y\u0131l\u0131nda kurulmas\u0131ndan bu yana Irak\u2019\u0131n ilk kez toprak b\u00fct\u00fcnl\u00fc\u011f\u00fc tehlike alt\u0131ndad\u0131r. Ba\u011fdat\u2019taki federal h\u00fck\u00fcmet Irak\u2019\u0131n etnik-mezhepsel devletlere ayr\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6nlemek i\u00e7in elinden geleni yapacakt\u0131r. Ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z bir K\u00fcrt devletinin ortaya \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131, milyonlarca K\u00fcrd\u00fcn ya\u015fad\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u0130ran ve T\u00fcrkiye i\u00e7in de ayn\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde tehdit olu\u015fturmaktad\u0131r. Bu k\u0131sa yaz\u0131, Irak K\u00fcrdistan b\u00f6lgesinde yap\u0131lan ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131k referandumunun sonras\u0131nda neler olabilece\u011fini de\u011ferlendirmektedir.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div> K\u00fcrdistan B\u00f6lgesel Y\u00f6netimi\u2019nin (KBY) 25 Eyl\u00fcl 2017\u2019de bir ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131k referandumu yapma karar\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131nda pek \u00e7ok neden bulunmaktad\u0131r ve konunun uzmanlar\u0131 referandumun arkas\u0131nda yatan nedenleri daha detayl\u0131 olarak tart\u0131\u015fmaktad\u0131rlar[1]<\/a>. KBY ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131k referandumunu yapt\u0131 ancak K\u00fcrt y\u00f6neticiler Irak\u2019tan ayr\u0131lman\u0131n yak\u0131n bir gelecekte ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmeyece\u011finin fark\u0131ndalar. Kerk\u00fck ve di\u011fer tart\u0131\u015fmal\u0131 b\u00f6lgeler, \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm\u00fc y\u0131llar alabilecek \u00e7etrefilli etnik-dini konular\u0131 besliyor. Tart\u0131\u015fmal\u0131 b\u00f6lgelerdeki etnik-dinsel az\u0131nl\u0131klar\u0131n pek \u00e7o\u011fu Irak h\u00fck\u00fcmeti ve K\u00fcrdistan B\u00f6lgesel Y\u00f6netimi aras\u0131nda se\u00e7im yapmak zorunda olmaktan endi\u015fe duyuyor[2]<\/a>. KBY\u2019nin tart\u0131\u015fmal\u0131 b\u00f6lgelerde ya\u015fayan T\u00fcrkmen, Arap, \u015eebek, Yezidi ve Hristiyan az\u0131nl\u0131klar\u0131n haklar\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fcvence alt\u0131na alma anlam\u0131nda nas\u0131l bir garanti vermeye haz\u0131rland\u0131\u011f\u0131 belirsiz. K\u00fcrdistan b\u00f6lgesindeki az\u0131nl\u0131klar, \u201cbu referandumun Irak K\u00fcrdistan B\u00f6lgesi (IKB) az\u0131nl\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131n onay\u0131 olmadan kararla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve az\u0131nl\u0131klar\u0131n siyasi g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015flerinin al\u0131nmadan haz\u0131rland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131\u201d belirterek K\u00fcrt siyasi partilerin kendilerini siyasi rantlar\u0131 i\u00e7in kullan\u0131yor olmalar\u0131ndan korkuyor[3]<\/a>. Sonu\u00e7 olarak S\u00fcryani, Ermeni ve T\u00fcrkmen gruplar bir araya gelerek Referandum Y\u00fcksek Kurulu\u2019na, yeni devlette dini ve etnik haklar\u0131n\u0131n koruma alt\u0131na al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 ve az\u0131nl\u0131klar\u0131n kendi b\u00f6lgelerinde \u00f6z-y\u00f6netim hakk\u0131 sa\u011flanmas\u0131n\u0131 isteyen 50 talep sundu[4]<\/a>.<\/p>\n KBY Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Mesud Barzani referandum gecesi hem Irak hem de K\u00fcrdistan B\u00f6lgesinin bayraklar\u0131n\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131k\u00e7a g\u00f6sterildi\u011fi bir konu\u015fma yapt\u0131[5]<\/a>. Ba\u015fkan\u2019\u0131n, referandumun olumlu sonucunun K\u00fcrdistan B\u00f6lgesinin Irak\u2019tan hemen ayr\u0131laca\u011f\u0131 anlam\u0131na gelmedi\u011finin ve KBY\u2019nin anayasal olarak Irak Federal H\u00fck\u00fcmeti\u2019nin egemenlik yetkisi alt\u0131nda kalaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131n fark\u0131nda olmas\u0131 dikkat \u00e7ekicidir. Ayn\u0131 \u015fekilde Ba\u015fkan birka\u00e7 g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmede, KBY\u2019nin ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131k referandumuna alternatiflerden uygulanabilir olanlar\u0131 dikkate almaya a\u00e7\u0131k oldu\u011funu belirtmektedir[6]<\/a>. Referandumun olumlu sonucunun Ba\u011fdat\u2019taki merkezi y\u00f6netime Kerk\u00fck\u2019\u00fcn ve di\u011fer tart\u0131\u015fmal\u0131 b\u00f6lgelerin idaresi, KBY\u2019nin hava sahas\u0131 ve s\u0131n\u0131r ge\u00e7i\u015flerinin kontrol\u00fc ve do\u011fal kaynaklar\u0131n ke\u015ffi ve idaresi de d\u00e2hil olmak \u00fczere KBY\u2019ye daha fazla yetki sa\u011flamas\u0131 konusunda bask\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in bir kald\u0131ra\u00e7 g\u00f6revi g\u00f6rmesi kuvvetle muhtemeldir.<\/p>\n Ba\u011fdat ve KBY aras\u0131nda ya\u015fanan siyasi ayr\u0131l\u0131k referandum yap\u0131ld\u0131ktan sonra da b\u00fcy\u00fcyerek devam etmektedir. Mevcut krizin gidi\u015fat\u0131 hakk\u0131nda farkl\u0131 spek\u00fclasyonlar bulunmaktad\u0131r. Bu \u00e7al\u0131\u015fma KBY\u2019nin ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131k referandumundan sonra neler olabilece\u011fine ili\u015fkin \u00fc\u00e7 senaryo \u00f6nermektedir:<\/p>\n \u0130lk Senaryo: Siyasi A\u00e7maz<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n \u015eu anda geli\u015fmekte olan ilk senaryo Ba\u011fdat\u2019taki Irak merkezi y\u00f6netimi ve Erbil\u2019de bulunan KBY aras\u0131nda bir siyasi \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n ger\u00e7ekle\u015fecek olmas\u0131 ihtimalidir. Irak y\u00f6netimi KBY\u2019nin ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131k referandumu yapma karar\u0131na cevaben idari yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 \u00e7oktan devreye sokmu\u015ftur. Referandum ak\u015fam\u0131 Irak y\u00f6netimi \u00fclke topra\u011f\u0131 \u00fczerindeki egemenlik yetkisini kullanm\u0131\u015f, KBY\u2019ye havaalanlar\u0131n\u0131 ve \u0130ran, T\u00fcrkiye ve Suriye aras\u0131ndaki s\u0131n\u0131r ge\u00e7i\u015flerini devretmesi talimat\u0131n\u0131 vermi\u015ftir. Ayr\u0131ca Ba\u011fdat\u2019ta bulunan merkezi Irak y\u00f6netimi ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131k oylamas\u0131na misilleme olarak Irak K\u00fcrdistan\u0131\u2019na hava yoluyla ula\u015f\u0131ma bir yasaklama getirmi\u015ftir. Bu hamle di\u011fer pek \u00e7ok b\u00f6lgesel ve uluslararas\u0131 h\u00fck\u00fcmetin geni\u015f \u00e7apta itiraz\u0131 ile kar\u015f\u0131la\u015fm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r[7]<\/a>. Buna ek olarak Irak y\u00f6netimi, Irak h\u00fck\u00fcmeti i\u00e7erisinde ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131k referandumunda oy kullanan K\u00fcrt yetkilileri a\u00e7\u0131\u011fa alma, i\u015ften \u00e7\u0131karma ve muhtemelen haklar\u0131nda dava a\u00e7ma niyetindedir[8]<\/a>. Irak y\u00f6netimi, tart\u0131\u015fmal\u0131 b\u00f6lgelerde KBY ile s\u00f6zle\u015fme yaparak \u00e7al\u0131\u015fan t\u00fcm petrol \u015firketlerine yasak koymu\u015ftur ve yabanc\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n KBY\u2019nin petrol\u00fcn\u00fc almay\u0131 b\u0131rakmalar\u0131 i\u00e7in bask\u0131 yapma niyetindedir. Ancak Irak y\u00f6netiminin kar\u015f\u0131 y\u00f6ntemlerinde \u015fu ana kadar pek ba\u015far\u0131l\u0131 oldu\u011fu s\u00f6ylenemez. Aktar\u0131lan bilgiler, Rusya\u2019dan Rosneft\u2019in KBY ile K\u00fcrdistan topraklar\u0131nda do\u011fal gaz boru hatt\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131na ili\u015fkin olarak yeni anla\u015fmalar yapmaya ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcndedir[9]<\/a>. Buna ilaveten, Chevron iki y\u0131ll\u0131k aradan sonra 2017 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n Eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131nda, ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131k referandumu plan\u0131 konusunda uluslararas\u0131 tart\u0131\u015fmalara ra\u011fmen b\u00f6lgeye g\u00fcveni i\u015faret eden bir hamle yaparak Irak K\u00fcrdistan\u0131\u2019nda ilk kuyusunu a\u00e7m\u0131\u015f ve sondaj\u0131na ba\u015flam\u0131\u015ft\u0131r[10]<\/a>. Irak y\u00f6netiminin KBY\u2019ye kar\u015f\u0131 tedbirlerinin birle\u015fik etkisi \u015f\u00fcphesiz Ba\u011fdat ve Erbil aras\u0131ndaki bir siyasi \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma tehdidi olu\u015fturmaktad\u0131r ki bir uzla\u015fmaya var\u0131lamamas\u0131 durumunda bu gerginlik 2018 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n Nisan ay\u0131nda yap\u0131lmas\u0131 planlanan Irak parlamentosu se\u00e7imlerinin ertelenmesine neden olabilir.<\/p>\n Benzer \u015fekilde b\u00f6lgesel ve uluslararas\u0131 payda\u015flar da Ba\u011fdat\u2019taki federal y\u00f6netim ve Erbil\u2019deki KBY aras\u0131ndaki krizin geli\u015fimi ve seyrini etkileyecektir. T\u00fcrk h\u00fck\u00fcmeti ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131k referandumuna cevaben KBY\u2019yi siyasi ve ekonomik yapt\u0131r\u0131mlarda bulunmakla tehdit etmi\u015ftir. Ayr\u0131ca T\u00fcrk medyas\u0131 da Kerk\u00fck\u2019teki ve tart\u0131\u015fmal\u0131 di\u011fer b\u00f6lgelerdeki T\u00fcrkmen az\u0131nl\u0131\u011f\u0131n referandumun bir sonucu olarak hedef al\u0131nmas\u0131 halinde KBY\u2019ye askeri m\u00fcdahalede bulunma tehdidinde bulunan \u00fcst d\u00fczey T\u00fcrk yetkililerin a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131na yer vermi\u015ftir[11]<\/a>. Ancak, T\u00fcrk h\u00fck\u00fcmetinin \u015fu a\u015famada Irak\u2019a askeri m\u00fcdahalede bulunmas\u0131 olas\u0131 de\u011fildir, zira s\u0131n\u0131rlar\u0131 d\u0131\u015f\u0131na askeri m\u00fcdahalenin do\u011fas\u0131 ve \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcs\u00fc hakk\u0131nda olduk\u00e7a ihtiyatl\u0131 hareket etmektedir[12]<\/a>.<\/p>\n \u0130ran da ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131k referandumuna yan\u0131t olarak KBY\u2019ye kar\u015f\u0131 siyasi ve ekonomik yapt\u0131r\u0131mlarda bulunma tehdidinde bulunmu\u015ftur[13]<\/a>. T\u00fcrkiye ve \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n KBY\u2019ye kar\u015f\u0131 siyasi ve ekonomik yapt\u0131r\u0131mlarda bulunmaya karar vermesi halinde, Ba\u011fdat ve KBY aras\u0131nda yap\u0131c\u0131 bir diyalo\u011fun ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesi ihtimali \u00f6nemli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde azalacakt\u0131r zira KBY Ba\u011fdat\u2019\u0131 K\u00fcrt halk\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 ekonomik ve siyasi bir ablukan\u0131n \u00f6nc\u00fcl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc yapmakla su\u00e7layacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n T\u00fcrkiye, \u0130ran ve Irak\u2019\u0131n KBY\u2019ye kar\u015f\u0131 ittifak\u0131n\u0131n gere\u011finden fazla abart\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 teslim ederek; bu akt\u00f6rlerin \u00f6nceliklerinin birbirlerinden fakl\u0131 oldu\u011funu hat\u0131rlamak \u00f6nemlidir. Bu \u00fclkelerin ge\u00e7mi\u015f sicilleri ile farkl\u0131 ve s\u0131kl\u0131kla birbiriyle \u00e7at\u0131\u015fan \u00f6ncelikleri dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, mevcut koordinasyonun s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclmesi ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131lmaz olarak zor olacakt\u0131r. T\u00fcrk h\u00fck\u00fcmetinin KBY ile \u00f6nemli ekonomik ba\u011flar\u0131 bulunmaktad\u0131r; bu nedenledir ki T\u00fcrkiye halihaz\u0131rda KBY ile s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmekte oldu\u011fu k\u00e2rl\u0131 ili\u015fkiden kolay bir \u015fekilde vazge\u00e7meyecektir. \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n KBY ile \u00f6nemli ekonomik ba\u011flar\u0131 olsa da Ba\u011fdat ile ili\u015fkisi stratejik olarak daha \u00f6nemlidir. T\u00fcrkiye ve \u0130ran aras\u0131nda ge\u00e7mi\u015ften gelen rekabeti g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcnde bulundurmak da \u00f6nem ta\u015f\u0131maktad\u0131r. \u0130ki \u00fclke de b\u00f6lgede ve bilhassa Irak K\u00fcrdistan B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nde etkili olma konusunda s\u0131k\u0131 bir yar\u0131\u015f i\u00e7indedir. Bu rekabet her iki taraf\u0131n da KBY ile ili\u015fkilerini bozma iste\u011fine ket vurabilir. \u0130ran, T\u00fcrkiye ve Ba\u011fdat\u2019\u0131n PKK, PJAK, ekonomik \u00e7\u0131karlar ve di\u011fer konular s\u00f6z konusu olunca da farkl\u0131 \u00f6ncelikleri vard\u0131r. T\u00fcrkiye, \u0130ran ve Ba\u011fdat\u2019\u0131n KBY\u2019ye kar\u015f\u0131 halihaz\u0131rdaki ittifaklar\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki aylara kadar dayanmas\u0131 pek m\u00fcmk\u00fcn g\u00f6r\u00fcnmemektedir[14]<\/a>.<\/p>\n \u0130kinci Senaryo: Stratejik \u0130htiyat<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n Referandumun k\u00f6r\u00fckledi\u011fi sert r\u00fczg\u00e2r\u0131n ge\u00e7mesini beklerken, Ba\u011fdat -Irak y\u00f6netimi \u00fclkenin toprak b\u00fct\u00fcnl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcne ili\u015fkin b\u00f6lgesel ve uluslararas\u0131 deste\u011fi avantaj olarak kullanarak- agresif siyasi retori\u011fe kar\u015f\u0131 yan\u0131t\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 tutarak ve k\u0131s\u0131tl\u0131 idari yapt\u0131r\u0131mlarda bulunmak yoluyla stratejik ihtiyat uygulayabilir. Uygulamada, Ba\u011fdat taraf\u0131ndan dayat\u0131lan herhangi bir idari eylem, siyasal ya da ekonomik yapt\u0131r\u0131m K\u00fcrdistan\u2019\u0131 hareket olana\u011f\u0131ndan yoksun b\u0131rakmayacakt\u0131r. Dahas\u0131 bu ko\u015fullarda b\u00fcy\u00fck bir askeri harek\u00e2t da \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclmemektedir.<\/p>\n Bu ikinci senaryo, Ba\u015fkan Barzani\u2019ye referandum sonu\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 2017 Kas\u0131m ay\u0131 i\u00e7in planlanan parlamento ve ba\u015fkanl\u0131k se\u00e7imi \u00f6ncesinde i\u00e7 siyasi konulara de\u011finmede kullanmas\u0131 i\u00e7in yeteri kadar zaman tan\u0131yacakt\u0131r. \u015eu anki ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131k referandumu konusunda Ba\u011fdat ile ya\u015fanan krizin \u00f6ncesinde, b\u00f6lgenin ba\u015fkanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 konusunda bir t\u00fcr siyasi \u00e7\u0131kmaz oldu\u011fundan bahsetmek \u00f6nemlidir. Barzani\u2019nin g\u00f6rev s\u00fcresi 20 A\u011fustos 2015 y\u0131l\u0131nda I\u015e\u0130D\u2019e kar\u015f\u0131 sava\u015f devam ederken sona ermi\u015ftir[15]<\/a>. KBY ba\u015fkanl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n yetkileri konusunda farkl\u0131 K\u00fcrt siyasi partileri aras\u0131ndaki anla\u015fmazl\u0131k b\u00f6lgenin meclisini \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmaz hale getiren bir siyasi k\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcme yol a\u00e7m\u0131\u015f ve \u00e7o\u011funlu\u011fu muhalif Goran Partisi\u2019nden olmak \u00fczere baz\u0131 KBY bakanlar\u0131n\u0131n g\u00f6revden al\u0131nmas\u0131na sebep olmu\u015ftur. Referandumun yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131 etno-milliyet\u00e7i momentum b\u00f6lge meclisinin iki y\u0131ld\u0131r ilk kez, 15 Eyl\u00fcl 2017\u2019de ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131k referandumunu onaylamak \u00fczere toplanmas\u0131na olanak sa\u011flam\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Meclis, 68 \u00fcyenin 65\u2019inin deste\u011fiyle, oy \u00e7oklu\u011fuyla, referanduma onay vermi\u015ftir. Toplamda 111 \u00fcyeden sadece 68 vekilin meclis oturumuna kat\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 detay\u0131 \u00f6nem ta\u015f\u0131maktad\u0131r[16]<\/a>. KBY\u2019nin referandum sonu\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6nemli siyasi partileri birle\u015ftirmek i\u00e7in yeni bir siyasi uzla\u015fmaya zemin olarak kullanma aray\u0131\u015f\u0131nda olaca\u011f\u0131 neredeyse kesindir. Birle\u015fik bir K\u00fcrt cephesi olu\u015fturuldu\u011funda KBY Ba\u011fdat\u2019taki federal y\u00f6netimle diyalo\u011fa haz\u0131r olacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n K\u00fcrdistan\u2019da referandum sonras\u0131 siyasi atmosfer \u00f6nemli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde etnik milliyet\u00e7i duyguyla \u015fekillenmi\u015ftir. Ancak, Goran ve Komel gibi pop\u00fclist K\u00fcrt siyasi partiler Ba\u015fkan Barzani\u2019nin partisi olan KDP\u2019nin ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131k referandumundaki lider rol\u00fcn\u00fc ve takip edecek olas\u0131 pazarl\u0131klar\u0131 \u015f\u00fcphe ile izlemektedir. Barzani ayn\u0131 zamanda s\u00fcreci, geli\u015fmeleri ve ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131k konusundaki m\u00fczakereleri y\u00f6netmek i\u00e7in yeni bir Ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131k Kurulu olu\u015fturmu\u015ftur. Goran ve KYB\u2019den Hero Talabani bu kurula kat\u0131lmay\u0131, KDP\u2019nin bu kurulu iktidar\u0131 elinde tutmay\u0131 g\u00fcvence alt\u0131na almak \u00fczere kullanaca\u011f\u0131 endi\u015fesi ile reddetmi\u015flerdir[17]<\/a>.<\/p>\n Krizi yat\u0131\u015ft\u0131rmaya y\u00f6nelik i\u00e7 ve d\u0131\u015f inisiyatifler arabuluculuk faaliyetleri i\u00e7erisinde iken, Ba\u011fdat\u2019\u0131n stratejik ihtiyat\u0131n\u0131n iki ila \u00fc\u00e7 ay i\u00e7inde son bulaca\u011f\u0131na dair spek\u00fclasyonlar da vard\u0131r. Bu kav\u015fakta, Ba\u011fdat ve Erbil aras\u0131nda \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kan mali ve idari konular\u0131 \u00e7\u00f6zmek \u00fczere diyalo\u011fu kolayla\u015ft\u0131rmada b\u00f6lgesel ve uluslararas\u0131 payda\u015flar \u00f6nemli bir rol oynayabilir.<\/p>\n \u00dc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc Senaryo: Silahl\u0131 \u00c7at\u0131\u015fma<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n Tart\u0131\u015fmal\u0131 b\u00f6lgelerde Arap ve T\u00fcrkmen g\u00fcvenlik g\u00fc\u00e7lerinin bir tarafta ve K\u00fcrt g\u00fcvenlik g\u00fc\u00e7lerinin di\u011fer tarafta oldu\u011fu bir askeri \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma en k\u00f6t\u00fc senaryodur. Bu g\u00fc\u00e7ler aras\u0131nda Ha\u015fdi \u015eabi, Ha\u015fdi el-A\u015fari, Irak ordusu ve KBY Pe\u015fmergeleri ve olas\u0131l\u0131kla PKK ile \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmay\u0131 bitiren di\u011fer paramiliter gruplar yer alabilir. Ba\u011fdat\u2019\u0131n Kerk\u00fck ve di\u011fer tart\u0131\u015fmal\u0131 b\u00f6lgelerin kontrol\u00fcn\u00fc yeniden ele ge\u00e7irmek i\u00e7in g\u00fcvenlik g\u00fc\u00e7lerini g\u00f6ndermesi halinde bu \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc senaryo ger\u00e7ekle\u015febilir. Bu a\u015famada Irak h\u00fck\u00fcmetinin g\u00fcvenlik g\u00fc\u00e7lerini Kerk\u00fck\u2019e ya da di\u011fer tart\u0131\u015fmal\u0131 b\u00f6lgelere g\u00f6ndermesi pek m\u00fcmk\u00fcn g\u00f6r\u00fcnmemektedir. Ancak Irak G\u00fcvenlik G\u00fc\u00e7leri (IGG) sadece konvansiyonel askeri kuvvetlerden olu\u015fmamaktad\u0131r. Ha\u015fdi \u015eabi paramiliter milis g\u00fc\u00e7leri art\u0131k IGG\u2019nin par\u00e7as\u0131d\u0131r. Bu paramiliter gruplar\u0131n dini inan\u00e7lar\u0131, mezhepsel aidiyetler, siyasal ba\u011flar ve mali destek kaynaklar\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak farkl\u0131 tabiiyetleri vard\u0131r. Bir\u00e7ok Ha\u015fdi \u015eabi komutan\u0131 KBY\u2019ye kar\u015f\u0131, K\u00fcrt g\u00fcvenlik g\u00fc\u00e7lerini tart\u0131\u015fmal\u0131 b\u00f6lgelerden \u00e7\u0131karmaya s\u00f6z vererek tehditler savurmaktad\u0131r[18]<\/a>. Asaib-i Ehli’l Hakk (AEH) \u00f6nderi Kays el Hazali de \u201cKerk\u00fck Irak\u2019t\u0131r\u201d diyerek Kerk\u00fck\u2019\u00fc geri almak i\u00e7in gerekirse g\u00fc\u00e7 kullanma tehdidinde bulunmu\u015ftur[19]<\/a>. AEH gibi milis g\u00fc\u00e7leri dini ve mali destek anlam\u0131nda \u0130ran\u2019a ba\u011fl\u0131d\u0131r ve \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n bu milislerin KBY\u2019yi askeri m\u00fcdahale ile tehdit etmesine izin verip vermedi\u011fi konusu a\u00e7\u0131k de\u011fildir. Baz\u0131 Ha\u015fdi \u015eabi unsurlar\u0131 ve K\u00fcrt G\u00fcvenlik g\u00fc\u00e7leri aras\u0131nda referandumdan \u00f6nce ve referandum s\u0131ras\u0131nda s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar ya\u015fand\u0131\u011f\u0131na ili\u015fkin haberler yap\u0131lm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r[20]<\/a>. Paramiliter gruplar ve K\u00fcrt g\u00fc\u00e7leri aras\u0131ndaki bu izole \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma ve provokasyonlar\u0131n say\u0131s\u0131nda referandumdan sonra bir art\u0131\u015f meydana gelirse, bu \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131n tart\u0131\u015fmal\u0131 b\u00f6lgelerde etnik \u015fiddete d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015febilme ihtimali vard\u0131r. Tart\u0131\u015fmal\u0131 b\u00f6lgelerde etnik-dini \u015fiddetin patlak vermesi durumunda, ABD ve Koalisyon\u2019un di\u011fer \u00fcyeleri Irak\u2019\u0131 istikrarl\u0131 bir hale getirmede do\u011frudan m\u00fcdahalede bulunma yoluyla, kayda de\u011fer bir rol oynamay\u0131 neredeyse kesin kez b\u0131rakacakt\u0131r. Bu noktada I\u015e\u0130D ter\u00f6ristlerinin Irak\u2019ta h\u00e2l\u00e2 aktif ve Enbar, Ninova ve di\u011fer vilayetlerde birka\u00e7 kent ve kasabay\u0131 kontrol\u00fc alt\u0131nda tuttu\u011funu hat\u0131rda tutmak gerekir.<\/p>\n Krizin Gidi\u015fat\u0131<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n Ba\u011fdat\u2019taki federal h\u00fck\u00fcmet ve KBY aras\u0131ndaki krizin gelecekteki \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm\u00fc iki \u00f6nemli bile\u015feni i\u00e7ermektedir: Tart\u0131\u015fmal\u0131 b\u00f6lgeler konusunu \u00e7\u00f6zmeye y\u00f6nelik bir yol haritas\u0131 ve g\u00fc\u00e7 yetkilerinin devri konusunda bir anla\u015fma zemini. Tart\u0131\u015fmal\u0131 b\u00f6lgeler iki kategoriye ayr\u0131labilir: Kerk\u00fck vilayeti ve KBY\u2019nin tarihsel olarak K\u00fcrdistan B\u00f6lgesine ait oldu\u011funu iddia etti\u011fi di\u011fer vilayetler. Kerk\u00fck; etnik-dini \u00e7e\u015fitlili\u011fi hem K\u00fcrt hem de T\u00fcrkmenler i\u00e7in sembolik bir \u00f6nem ta\u015f\u0131mas\u0131 ve geni\u015f petrol ve gaz kaynaklar\u0131na sahip olmas\u0131 nedeniyle \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm\u00fc en \u00e7etrefilli konu olacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n Ba\u011fdat ve Erbil aras\u0131ndaki ge\u00e7mi\u015f ayr\u0131l\u0131klara ve Ba\u011fdat ve Erbil\u2019de h\u00fck\u00fcmet yetkililerinin beyanlar\u0131na dayanarak[21]<\/a> e\u011fer K\u00fcrt m\u00fczakereciler yetki devri konusunda anla\u015fmaya varma konusunda istekli olurlarsa Ba\u011fdat\u2019taki federal y\u00f6netimin Kerk\u00fck ve di\u011fer tart\u0131\u015fmal\u0131 b\u00f6lgelerin idaresinin KBY\u2019ye verilmesini tart\u0131\u015fmaya a\u00e7mas\u0131 olas\u0131d\u0131r[22]<\/a>. Ba\u011fdat\u2019taki federal h\u00fck\u00fcmet Irak\u2019\u0131 bir arada tutmay\u0131 ve egemenlik yetkisini merkezi y\u00f6netimde toplamay\u0131 istemektedir. E\u011fer KBY gaz ve petrol gibi do\u011fal kaynaklar\u0131n ke\u015ffi, idaresi ve gelirine ili\u015fkin yetkilerinden, s\u0131n\u0131r ge\u00e7i\u015fleri kontrol\u00fcnden ve di\u011fer idari yetkilerinden \u00f6d\u00fcn vererek anla\u015fmaya istekli olursa, Ba\u011fdat\u2019taki federal y\u00f6netimin Kerk\u00fck\u2019\u00fcn ve veya di\u011fer tart\u0131\u015fmal\u0131 b\u00f6lgelerin idaresini (k\u0131smen ya da tamamen) KBY\u2019ye devretmeyi de\u011ferlendirebilece\u011fi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclmektedir.<\/p>\n Sonu\u00e7<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n Irak\u2019\u0131n K\u00fcrdistan b\u00f6lgesindeki ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131k referandumu K\u00fcrt tarihinde bir d\u00f6n\u00fcm noktas\u0131d\u0131r. Sand\u0131ktan \u00e7\u0131kan olumlu sonu\u00e7 t\u00fcm d\u00fcnyada pek \u00e7ok etnik milliyet\u00e7i K\u00fcrt i\u00e7in bir zaferi temsil etmektedir. Ancak referandum sadece K\u00fcrtlerin devlet olma aray\u0131\u015f\u0131yla \u015fekillenmemi\u015ftir, daha ziyade arkas\u0131nda ba\u015fka i\u00e7 siyasi ve ekonomik y\u00f6nlendirici fakt\u00f6rler vard\u0131r. Bir yanda KBY \u00f6zerkli\u011fini m\u00fcmk\u00fcn oldu\u011funca korurken idaresi alt\u0131ndaki b\u00f6lgeleri art\u0131rmak i\u00e7in elinden geleni yapacakt\u0131r. Di\u011fer yanda Ba\u011fdat, federal h\u00fck\u00fcmetin egemenlik tekelinden \u00f6d\u00fcn vermeden Irak\u2019\u0131n toprak b\u00fct\u00fcnl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmek i\u00e7in ne gerekiyorsa yapacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n K\u00fcrdistan B\u00f6lgesel Y\u00f6netimi sadece b\u00f6lgesel eri\u015fimini art\u0131rma aray\u0131\u015f\u0131nda de\u011fil ayn\u0131 zamanda topra\u011f\u0131, hava sahas\u0131 ve kaynaklar\u0131 \u00fczerinde, Ba\u011fdat\u2019\u0131n dikkatli g\u00f6zlerinden uzakta, daha fazla yetki aray\u0131\u015f\u0131ndad\u0131r. Ancak KBY\u2019nin, Kerk\u00fck\u2019\u00fcn ortak idaresi ve kayda de\u011fer bir bi\u00e7imde gaz ve petrol olmak \u00fczere do\u011fal kaynaklar\u0131 ke\u015ffetme ve mali gelirleri konusunda mutabakata varmay\u0131 istemedi\u011fi m\u00fcddet\u00e7e, ayn\u0131 anda hem daha fazla b\u00f6lge ve hem de daha fazla g\u00fc\u00e7 elde etmesi \u00e7ok olas\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcnmemektedir. Bu konular\u0131n arabulucular e\u015fli\u011finde Ba\u011fdat ve Erbil aras\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fclmesi beklenmektedir.<\/p>\n ABD h\u00fck\u00fcmetinin ve di\u011fer akt\u00f6rlerin rol\u00fcn\u00fcn Ba\u011fdat ve Erbil aras\u0131ndaki diyalo\u011fun kolayla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 ile s\u0131n\u0131rlanmas\u0131 kuvvetle muhtemeldir. Ancak tart\u0131\u015fmal\u0131 b\u00f6lgelerde etnik \u015fiddetin patlak vermesi halinde ABD h\u00fck\u00fcmetinin Irak\u2019\u0131n istikrar kazanmas\u0131nda daha b\u00fcy\u00fck bir rol oynamas\u0131 \u00e7ok daha olas\u0131d\u0131r. Hem Irak hem de koalisyon g\u00fc\u00e7lerinin elde etti\u011fi etkileyici zafere ra\u011fmen I\u015e\u0130D ile sava\u015f hen\u00fcz sonlanmam\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Rawa ve El Kaym gibi \u015fehirler h\u00e2l\u00e2 I\u015e\u0130D\u2019in kontrol\u00fc alt\u0131ndad\u0131r. Etnik-dini \u015fiddetin sebep oldu\u011fu herhangi bir yerel karma\u015fa I\u015e\u0130D\u2019in taze ma\u011flubiyetlerinden s\u0131yr\u0131larak toparlanmas\u0131na yard\u0131mc\u0131 olacakt\u0131r. Irak ve K\u00fcrt g\u00fcvenlik g\u00fc\u00e7leri aras\u0131nda askeri olarak kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya gelme tehlikesi hep bulunmakla birlikte Ba\u011fdat\u2019\u0131n mevcut krizi \u00e7\u00f6zmek i\u00e7in askeri g\u00fc\u00e7 kullanmas\u0131 pek olas\u0131 de\u011fildir.<\/p>\n Sonu\u00e7 olarak Ba\u011fdat\u2019taki federal y\u00f6netim ve KBY aras\u0131ndaki kriz \u015fu an iki farkl\u0131 \u015fekilde seyretmektedir: \u0130lk olarak, Ba\u011fdat idari ve ekonomik yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 dayatarak Erbil\u2019i bask\u0131 alt\u0131na alma yoluna daha fazla a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131k vermektedir. \u0130kinci olarak iki taraf aras\u0131nda bir diyalog i\u00e7in yerel ve uluslararas\u0131 inisiyatifler arabuluculu\u011fa ba\u015flam\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Gerek Ba\u011fdat gerekse Erbil taleplerinin d\u00fczeyini art\u0131rmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrecek ve nihai bir sonu\u00e7 konusunda beklenen g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerin \u00f6n\u00fcnde bask\u0131 taktikleri kullanacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n Referanslar<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n [1]<\/a>Badawi, Tamer (2017): The Kurdish independence Referendum: Drivers & Implications. https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/2017\/09\/21\/the-kurdish-independence-referendum-drivers-implications\/<\/a><\/p>\n [2]<\/a>Rosen, Kenneth (2017): An Ominous Future for Kurdistan\u2019s Minorities. https:\/\/www.theatlantic.com\/international\/archive\/2017\/09\/kurdistan-referendum-iraq-isis-turkey-saddamhussein\/540939<\/a><\/p>\n [3]<\/a>Babri, Saad (2017): Why Kurdish referendum is unlikely to end Iraqi minorities\u2019 dilemma. http:\/\/english.alarabiya.net\/en\/perspective\/features\/2017\/09\/26\/Why-Kurdish-referendum-is-unlikely-to-end-Iraqi-minorities-dilemma.html<\/a><\/p>\n [4]<\/a>Babri, Saad (2017): Why Kurdish referendum is unlikely to end Iraqi minorities\u2019 dilemma. http:\/\/english.alarabiya.net\/en\/perspective\/features\/2017\/09\/26\/Why-Kurdish-referendum-is-unlikely-to-end-Iraqi-minorities-dilemma.html<\/a><\/p>\n [5]<\/a> Barzani, Massoud (2017): https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=YsJsTdy7lYc<\/a><\/p>\n [6]<\/a>Okuducu, Idris (2017): Kurd chief open to \u2018alternate arrangement\u2019 with Baghdad. https:\/\/www.aa.com.tr\/en\/middle-east\/kurd-chief-open-to-alternate-arrangement-with-baghdad\/914417?amp=1<\/a><\/p>\n [7]<\/a>Chmaytelli, Maher and Karadeniz, Tulay (2017): Last flight departs as Iraq imposes ban for Kurdish independence vote. https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/article\/us-mideast-crisiskurds-referendum\/last-flight-departs-as-iraqimposes-ban-for-kurdish-independence-voteidUSKCN1C4113<\/a><\/p>\n [8]<\/a>Rudaw (2017): Iraq takes new measures against Kurdistan, puts officials on trial for referendum. http:\/\/www.rudaw.net\/english\/middleeast\/iraq\/09102017<\/a><\/p>\n [9]<\/a>Zhdannikov, Dmitry (2017): Russia\u2019s Rosneft clinches gas pipeline deal with Iraq\u2019s Kurdistan. https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/article\/us-kurdistanrosneft\/russias-rosneft-clinches-gas-pipelinedeal-with-iraqs-kurdistan-idUSKCN1BT0MQ<\/a><\/p>\n [10]<\/a>Zhdannikov, Dmitry and Bousso, Ron (2017): Chevron drills oil well in Iraqi Kurdish area after two-year gap: sources. https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/article\/us-chevron-exploration\/chevron-drillsoil-well-in-iraqi-kurdish-area-after-two-yeargap-sources-idUSKCN1BV1UG<\/a><\/p>\n [11]<\/a>McKernan, Bethan (2017): Kurdistan referendum: Erdogan says Iraqi Kurds risk \u2018ethnic war\u2019 and threatens military response to vote. https:\/\/www.independent.co.uk\/news\/world\/middle-east\/kurdistan-referendum-kurdish-turkey-military-recep-tayyip-erdogan-iraq-kurds-krg-independence-a7967566.html<\/a><\/p>\n [12]<\/a>Gursel, Kadri (2016): Turkey faces decision over boots on the ground in Syria. https:\/\/www.al-monitor.com\/pulse\/originals\/2016\/09\/turkeysyria-fsa-fails-in-euphrates-shield.html<\/a><\/p>\n [13]<\/a>Reuters (2017): Turkey, Iran, Iraq consider counter-measures over Kurdish referendum. https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/article\/us-mideastcrisis-kurds-referendum-minis\/turkey-iraniraq-consider-counter-measures-over-kurdishreferendum-idUSKCN1BW1EA<\/a><\/p>\n [14]<\/a>Tastekin, Fehim (2017): Turkey, Iran, Iraq in shaky alignment against Iraqi Kurdistan. https:\/\/www.al-monitor.com\/pulse\/originals\/2017\/09\/turkey-iran-iraq-alignment-against-iraqikurdistan.html<\/a><\/p>\n [15]<\/a>Coles, Isabel (2015): Political crisis escalates in Iraq\u2019s Kurdistan region. https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/article\/us-iraq-kurds\/political-crisis-escalates-in-iraqs-kurdistan-region-idUSKCN0S60HX20151012<\/a><\/p>\n [16]<\/a>Rudaw (2017): Kurdistan parliament approves independence referendum on Sept 25. http:\/\/www.rudaw.net\/english\/kurdistan\/15092017<\/a><\/p>\n [17]<\/a>Rudaw (2017): Gorran refuses to join referendum committee as others ponder timeline http:\/\/www.rudaw.net\/english\/kurdistan\/24042017<\/a><\/p>\n [18]<\/a>K24-2017 \u064a\u0628\u0639\u0634\u0644\u0627 \u062f\u0634\u062d\u0644\u0627 \u0629\u0642\u0631\u0648\u0628 \u062d\u0648\u0644\u064a \u064a\u0644\u0639\u0632\u062e\u0644\u0627 \u0644\u0627\u0644\u0642\u062a\u0633\u0627\u0644\u0627 \u062f\u0639\u0628 \u0646\u0627\u062a\u0633\u062f\u0631\u0648\u0643 \u0629\u0645\u062c\u0627\u0647\u0645\u0644 http:\/\/www.kurdistan24.net\/ar\/news\/3a1113a5-b0ed-44b4-8cbb-57de5d3d4e07<\/a><\/p>\n [19]<\/a>Al-Khaza\u2019li, Qais (2017): \u064a\u0644\u0639\u0632\u062e\u0644\u0627 \u0646\u0644\u0639\u064a \u0647\u062f\u0627\u062f\u0639\u062a\u0633\u0627 \u0643\u0648\u0643\u0631\u0643 \u0629\u064a\u0642\u0627\u0631\u0639 \u0646\u0639 \u0627\u0639\u0627\u0641\u062f \u0644\u0627\u062a\u0642\u0644\u0644 https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=N9glBYyW3Lg<\/a><\/p>\n [20]<\/a>Radio Free Europe (2017): Violence In Kirkuk Ahead Of Planned Kurdish Referendum Vote. https:\/\/www.rferl.org\/a\/iraq-kirkukclashes-\/28744118.html<\/a><\/p>\n [21]<\/a>Abadi, Haider (2017): PM calls for \u2018dialogue, dialogue, dialogue\u2019 with Erbil in carrot and stick speech http:\/\/www.rudaw.net\/english\/middleeast\/iraq\/130920171<\/a><\/p>\n [22]<\/a>Rudaw (2017): President Barzani and Iraqi speaker Jabouri agree to dialogue with open agenda. http:\/\/www.rudaw.net\/english\/middleeast\/iraq\/08102017<\/a><\/p>\n <\/p>\n<\/div> Irak K\u00fcrdistan B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131k referandumu modern Irak tarihinde bir d\u00f6n\u00fcm noktas\u0131n\u0131 temsil etmektedir. 1921 y\u0131l\u0131nda kurulmas\u0131ndan bu yana Irak\u2019\u0131n ilk kez toprak b\u00fct\u00fcnl\u00fc\u011f\u00fc tehlike alt\u0131ndad\u0131r.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":44,"featured_media":9715,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","ngg_post_thumbnail":0},"categories":[361],"tags":[],"asf_pub_issue":[10319],"asf_pub_region":[10321],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9713"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/44"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=9713"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9713\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":23936,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9713\/revisions\/23936"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/9715"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=9713"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=9713"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=9713"},{"taxonomy":"asf_pub_issue","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/asf_pub_issue?post=9713"},{"taxonomy":"asf_pub_region","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/asf_pub_region?post=9713"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}