![\"\"](\"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/02\/Mesut-O\u0308zcan-150x150.png\" "\\"\\"")
Mesut Ozcan<\/a> <\/i> 21 Temmuz 2017<\/span><\/h6><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div>Uzman G\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fc<\/a> \/ \/ Devlet & Devlet-D\u0131\u015f\u0131 Akt\u00f6rler<\/a><\/h6><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div>\u00d6zet<\/span><\/strong>: Irak \u015eam \u0130slam Devleti\u2019nin (I\u015e\u0130D) Musul\u2019daki yenilgisi Irak\u2019\u0131n yak\u0131n tarihinde \u00f6nemli bir d\u00f6n\u00fcm noktas\u0131n\u0131 temsil etmektedir. \u0130badi H\u00fck\u00fcmeti bu nedenle psikolojik olarak cesaretlenmi\u015fse de Irak\u2019taki mevcut sorunlar bu ba\u015far\u0131ya ra\u011fmen hala \u00fcrk\u00fct\u00fcc\u00fc boyutlardad\u0131r. Irak H\u00fck\u00fcmeti, m\u00fcltecilerin \u00fclkeye d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fc, Musul\u2019un yeniden in\u015fas\u0131, benzer ter\u00f6r gruplar\u0131n\u0131n ortaya \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6nleyici bir g\u00fcvenlik yap\u0131s\u0131 olu\u015fturma ve Irak\u2019taki fark\u0131 gruplar aras\u0131nda bir k\u00f6pr\u00fc olu\u015fturma g\u00f6revlerinin hepsini petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck oldu\u011fu bir d\u00f6nemde yerine getirmek zorundad\u0131r. Ba\u011fdat\u2019taki merkezi h\u00fck\u00fcmet i\u00e7in bir di\u011fer sorun da K\u00fcrdistan B\u00f6lgesel Y\u00f6netimi\u2019nin (KBY) ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131k referandum plan\u0131. Irak topra\u011f\u0131n\u0131n bir ter\u00f6r \u00f6rg\u00fct\u00fcn\u00fcn kontrol\u00fcnden \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131lmas\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fck bir rahatlama sa\u011flarken, art\u0131k h\u00fck\u00fcmet t\u00fcm dikkatini ve \u00e7abas\u0131n\u0131 vatanda\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n ihtiyac\u0131 olan temel hizmetleri sa\u011flamaya y\u00f6neltebilir. Ancak farkl\u0131 akt\u00f6rler ve par\u00e7alanm\u0131\u015f partiler aras\u0131ndaki siyasi \u00e7eki\u015fmeler ileriye d\u00f6n\u00fck sorunlara yenilerini eklemektedir. Ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131k referandumu plan\u0131na Kerk\u00fck\u2019\u00fcn de dahil edilme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve Halk Seferberlik G\u00fc\u00e7leri\u2019nin (Ha\u015fdi \u015eabi) Irak\u2019\u0131n g\u00fcvenlik yap\u0131s\u0131na eklenmesi, patlamaya haz\u0131r di\u011fer sorunlard\u0131r.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div>Irak Ba\u015fbakan\u0131 \u0130badi, ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz sonbaharda ba\u015flayan operasyonla kentin konrol\u00fcn\u00fc yeniden ele ge\u00e7irme ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131 g\u00f6sterdikleri i\u00e7in Irak g\u00fcvenlik g\u00fc\u00e7lerini tebrik etmek \u00fczere 9 Temmuz\u2019da Musul\u2019a bir ziyarette bulunmu\u015ftu. Irak \u015eam \u0130slam Devleti\u2019nin (I\u015e\u0130D) Musul\u2019da yenilgiye u\u011frat\u0131lmas\u0131yla Irak tarihinde k\u0131sa bir b\u00f6l\u00fcm daha sona ermi\u015f oldu[1]<\/a>. Her nas\u0131l olursa olsun, bu geli\u015fme \u0130badi y\u00f6netimi i\u00e7in Irak\u2019ta b\u00fcy\u00fck bir ba\u015far\u0131y\u0131 temsil ediyor. Musul\u2019da ilan edilen askeri ilerlemenin gecikmesine ve kentin bat\u0131 k\u0131sm\u0131ndaki devasa y\u0131k\u0131ma ra\u011fmen, Irak\u2019\u0131n ikinci b\u00fcy\u00fck kentinin I\u015e\u0130D\u2019in kontrol\u00fcnden \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131lmas\u0131 \u00fclkenin g\u00fcvenlik engelleriyle ba\u015fa \u00e7\u0131kma konusunda bir d\u00f6n\u00fcm noktas\u0131n\u0131 temsil ediyor.<\/p>\nI\u015e\u0130D \u00fc\u00e7 y\u0131l \u00f6nce Musul\u2019u ele ge\u00e7irmi\u015f ve B\u00fcy\u00fck el-Nuri Camii\u2019nde yeni bir devlet (halifelik) ilan etmi\u015fti. I\u015e\u0130D\u2019in Musul\u2019u ele ge\u00e7irmesi ve daha sonra Erbil ve Ba\u011fdat\u2019a do\u011fru ilerlemesi b\u00fcy\u00fck bir \u015foktu. Bu durum, bilhassa Irak H\u00fck\u00fcmetinin s\u00f6z konusu durumla kendi ba\u015f\u0131na m\u00fccadele etmesinin ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131zl\u0131kla sonu\u00e7land\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcne al\u0131narak I\u015e\u0130D\u2019i yenilgiye u\u011fratmak i\u00e7in uluslararas\u0131 bir koalisyonun kurulmas\u0131na zemin haz\u0131rlad\u0131. Irak ve Suriye topraklar\u0131n\u0131n baz\u0131 par\u00e7alar\u0131 halen I\u015e\u0130D\u2019in kontrol\u00fc alt\u0131nda, ancak Musul\u2019un kayb\u0131 ve Rakka\u2019daki ilerlemeler, I\u015e\u0130D\u2019in b\u00f6lgesel olarak varl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n sonuna yakla\u015fmakta oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor. Irak H\u00fck\u00fcmeti\u2019nin halihaz\u0131rdaki g\u00f6revi, I\u015e\u0130D\u2019in kontrol\u00fcnde kalan topraklar\u0131 \u00f6zg\u00fcrle\u015ftirmenin yan\u0131 s\u0131ra yeniden g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesini \u00f6nlemek i\u00e7in gerekli ko\u015fullar\u0131 olu\u015fturmak ve onun egemenli\u011finden kurtulan kentlerde ve kasabalarda ya\u015fanan sorunlar\u0131 ele almakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n
G\u00fcvenlik Sorunlar\u0131<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\nI\u015e\u0130D\u2019in yenilgiye u\u011frat\u0131lmas\u0131ndan sonra Irak\u2019\u0131n mevcut sorunlar\u0131na kabaca bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda hala \u00fcstesinden gelinmesi gereken \u00f6nemli hususlar oldu\u011funu g\u00f6r\u00fclmektedir. Bunlardan ilki, \u00fclkeye zarar vermekte ve I\u015e\u0130D\u2019in b\u00f6lgesel kontrol\u00fc kaybetmeye uyum sa\u011flamak yoluyla ge\u00e7irece\u011fi d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcmle birlikte artmas\u0131 olas\u0131 olan ter\u00f6r tehdidini ortadan kald\u0131rmak. I\u015e\u0130D, b\u00f6lgeyi kontrol alt\u0131nda tutma bi\u00e7imiyle El Kaide ve di\u011fer ter\u00f6r gruplar\u0131ndan farkl\u0131yd\u0131 ve devlet olma iddias\u0131 onun ay\u0131r\u0131c\u0131 bir \u00f6zelli\u011fiydi. I\u015e\u0130D\u2019in bundan sonra Irak\u2019\u0131n farkl\u0131 kentlerinde ter\u00f6r sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131 ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirmek yoluyla ayakta kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrebilece\u011fi genel kabul g\u00f6rmektedir. I\u015e\u0130D \u015fu an Telafer ve Havija gibi b\u00f6lgeleri kontrol\u00fc alt\u0131nda tutmakta, bu da di\u011fer yerlere sald\u0131r\u0131 planlamalar\u0131na ve bu sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131 ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirmelerine olanak sa\u011flamaktad\u0131r. Bu b\u00f6lgeler kaybedildikten sonra I\u015e\u0130D mensuplar\u0131 \u00e7\u00f6le geri \u00e7ekilecek ve grup gelecekte Irak\u2019taki mevcudiyetini sa\u011flamak \u00fczere k\u0131rsaldaki k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck h\u00fccrelere ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131 olacakt\u0131r. Bu gruplar\u0131n kentlerde olas\u0131 sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6nlemek, I\u015e\u0130D sonras\u0131 s\u00fcre\u00e7te Irak H\u00fck\u00fcmeti\u2019nin \u00f6nceliklerinden biri olacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n
G\u00fcvenlik sorunlar\u0131 bak\u0131m\u0131ndan ele al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, I\u015e\u0130D\u2019in ortaya \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n Irak g\u00fcvenlik mekanizmalar\u0131n\u0131n eksik y\u00f6nlerini a\u00e7\u0131k\u00e7a ortaya koydu\u011fu s\u00f6ylenebilir. Irak H\u00fck\u00fcmeti g\u00fcvenlik g\u00fc\u00e7lerini yeniden yap\u0131land\u0131rmak i\u00e7in mali kaynaklar\u0131n\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fck bir k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131 harcam\u0131\u015f ve bu konu i\u00e7in b\u00fcy\u00fck bir \u00e7aba sarf etmi\u015ftir[2]<\/a>. Irak Ordusu resmi g\u00fc\u00e7leri ve kolluk kuvvetlerinin yan\u0131 s\u0131ra Ha\u015fdi \u015eabi olarak bilinen paramiliter grup I\u015e\u0130D\u2019e kar\u015f\u0131 m\u00fccadelede \u00f6nemli bir rol oynam\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Irak Parlamentosu Ha\u015fdi \u015eabi\u2019nin stat\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fc me\u015fru hale getirmek i\u00e7in 2016 y\u0131l\u0131 Kas\u0131m ay\u0131nda Ha\u015fdi \u015eabi\u2019yi Ba\u015fbakanl\u0131k himayesine alm\u0131\u015f, polis ve orduyu temel alarak \u00fcyelerine maa\u015f ba\u011flay\u0131p emeklilik hakk\u0131 vererek hukuki bir stat\u00fc sa\u011flam\u0131\u015ft\u0131r[3]<\/a>. Ha\u015fdi \u015eabi \u015femsiyesi alt\u0131nda Bedir \u00d6rg\u00fct\u00fc gibi mevcut g\u00fcvenlik yap\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n i\u00e7ine kar\u0131\u015fmaya ve h\u00fck\u00fcmetin emirlerine itaat etmeye istekli olan \u00e7e\u015fitli gruplar bulunmaktad\u0131r. Bu gruplar\u0131n Ha\u015fdi \u015eabi\u2019nin yakla\u015f\u0131k %80\u2019ini olu\u015fturdu\u011fu s\u00f6ylenmektedir. Bunlar\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda, Hizbullah Tugaylar\u0131 gibi (Kata\u2019ib Hizbullah olarak da bilinmektedir) Velayet-i Fakih \u00e7izgisini izleyen ve haliyle \u0130ran\u2019dan emir alan ba\u015fka gruplar da vard\u0131r. Irak\u2019\u0131n t\u00fcm bu g\u00fcvenlik yap\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n kontrol\u00fcn\u00fc kazanmas\u0131 devletin egemenli\u011fi i\u00e7in olduk\u00e7a \u00f6nemlidir. Irak\u2019ta i\u015flevsel bir devlet sistemi olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in, Ba\u015fbakan \u0130badi\u2019nin Ha\u015fdi \u015eabi\u2019nin uzla\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131 olanaks\u0131z olan bile\u015fenlerin kontrol\u00fcn\u00fc ele ge\u00e7irmek gibi \u00e7\u00f6zmek zorunda oldu\u011fu korkutucu sorunlar\u0131 vard\u0131r. Her hal\u00fck\u00e2rda \u00fclkenin g\u00fcvenlik ko\u015fullar\u0131 ve ekonomisi dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda Ba\u015fbakan\u2019\u0131n t\u00fcm bu g\u00fc\u00e7lerin kontrol\u00fcn\u00fc tamam\u0131yla ele ge\u00e7irmesi biraz zaman alacakt\u0131r. Buna ek olarak, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n da Irak\u2019\u0131n i\u00e7 siyasetine m\u00fcdahale etmesini sa\u011flayan b\u00f6yle etkin bir ara\u00e7tan vazge\u00e7meye niyeti olmayacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\nEkonomik Sorunlar<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n\u00dclkenin g\u00fcvenlik sorunlar\u0131 ile nas\u0131l ba\u015f edilece\u011fini de\u011ferlendirirken ekonomik fakt\u00f6rler de dikkate al\u0131nmal\u0131d\u0131r. Petrol \u00fcretimindeki ve ihracat\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015fa ra\u011fmen, petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f Irak ekonomisine zarar vermektedir. 2006-2015 y\u0131llar\u0131 aras\u0131nda Irak\u2019\u0131n askeri harcamalar\u0131 %536 ile 13.1 milyar dolara \u00e7\u0131km\u0131\u015ft\u0131r[4]<\/a>. Ba\u015fka herhangi bir \u00fclkenin yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 harcamalardan olduk\u00e7a b\u00fcy\u00fck bir y\u00fczdelik art\u0131\u015f ordunun kurumsal altyap\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n yeniden tesis edilmesi zorunlulu\u011fundan ileri gelmektedir[5]<\/a>. I\u015e\u0130D ile m\u00fccadele, normalde altyap\u0131 projelerine tahsil edilecek olan mali kaynaklar\u0131n devasa boyutlara varan harcamalar sebebiyle \u00f6nemli bir k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131 t\u00fcketmi\u015ftir. Irak H\u00fck\u00fcmeti, I\u015e\u0130D Musul gibi alanlardan \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131ld\u0131ktan sonra \u00fclke i\u00e7inde yerinden edilmi\u015f yakla\u015f\u0131k bir milyon kadar ki\u015fiye yiyecek ve bar\u0131nma sa\u011flama gibi \u00e7ok b\u00fcy\u00fck sorunlarla kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131yad\u0131r. Geri al\u0131nan kentlerin yeniden in\u015fas\u0131ndan bahsetmiyoruz bile. BM g\u00f6revlilerine g\u00f6re, \u00fclkedeki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalardan en \u00e7ok zarar\u0131 Musul\u2019un bat\u0131s\u0131 g\u00f6rm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcr. Buray\u0131 yeniden in\u015fa etmek bir y\u0131ldan uzun zaman alacak ve ba\u015flang\u0131\u00e7ta \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015f olan masraf\u0131 ikiye katlayacakt\u0131r. Kentin altyap\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n onar\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131n en az 1 milyar dolara mal olaca\u011f\u0131 s\u00f6ylenmektedir[6]<\/a>. Mevcut petrol fiyatlar\u0131yla bu sorunlar\u0131n \u00fcstesinden gelmek, Irak H\u00fck\u00fcmeti\u2019nin i\u015fini \u00fcst\u00fcn gayret gerektiren bir g\u00f6rev haline getirmektedir.<\/p>\nGelecekte I\u015e\u0130D\u2019in olas\u0131 ter\u00f6r sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6nleme konusunda en \u00f6nemli \u00f6nceliklerden biri benzer ter\u00f6r \u00f6rg\u00fctlerinin ortaya \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6nlemek olmal\u0131d\u0131r. I\u015e\u0130D\u2019nin ortaya \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131na ve y\u00fckseli\u015fine zemin haz\u0131rlayan fakt\u00f6rlere bakarsak, en \u00f6nemli konu Irak\u2019taki S\u00fcnni Arap n\u00fcfusun temel etno-mezhepsel sorunlar\u0131na hitap edilmemesidir. Bu sorunlar \u00f6nemli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde S\u00fcnnilerin kendisini h\u00fck\u00fcmete yabanc\u0131 hissetmesi, \u00e7o\u011funlukta oldu\u011fu alanlardaki g\u00fcvenlik sorunlar\u0131 ve buralara di\u011fer hizmetlerin sa\u011flanmam\u0131\u015f olmas\u0131, terk edilmi\u015flik hissi ve uygun siyasi temsilin olmamas\u0131d\u0131r. I\u015e\u0130D, Irak\u2019\u0131n geni\u015f alanlar\u0131n\u0131n kontrol\u00fcn\u00fc eline ge\u00e7irmek i\u00e7in bu kayg\u0131lar\u0131 kendi \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131na kullanmaktad\u0131r. Bu ba\u011flamda, \u00fclkenin son birka\u00e7 y\u0131lda ya\u015fad\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131n tekrarlanmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6nlemek i\u00e7in Irak H\u00fck\u00fcmeti \u00fclkedeki farkl\u0131 gruplar\u0131n sosyal yeniden entegrasyonu konusuna odaklanmal\u0131d\u0131r. Bu da kapsay\u0131c\u0131 ve temsili h\u00fck\u00fcmet yap\u0131lar\u0131, i\u015fler bir devlet sistemi ve etkili b\u00fcrokrasi yoluyla ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirilebilir. Hi\u00e7 \u015f\u00fcphesiz bunlar\u0131 s\u00f6ylemek yapmaktan kolayd\u0131r. Bu konuda inand\u0131r\u0131c\u0131 olmak i\u00e7in Irak h\u00fck\u00fcmeti toplumun t\u00fcm farkl\u0131 kesimlerinin g\u00fcvenini kazanmal\u0131d\u0131r.<\/p>\n
KBY\u2019nin Ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131k Giri\u015fimi<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\nSosyal yeniden entegrasyon anlam\u0131nda, S\u00fcnni Arap n\u00fcfusun sorunlar\u0131na hitap etmenin yan\u0131nda di\u011fer \u00f6nemli bir sorun ise Irakl\u0131 K\u00fcrtlerin gelece\u011fidir. K\u00fcrdistan B\u00f6lgesel Y\u00f6netimi (KBY) Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Mesud Barzani\u2019nin 25 Eyl\u00fcl 2017 tarihinde K\u00fcrtlerin ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131\u011f\u0131 konusunda bir referandum ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirilece\u011fini a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan Erbil ve Ba\u011fdat aras\u0131ndaki ili\u015fki I\u015e\u0130D sonras\u0131 Irak\u2019ta en \u00f6nemli sorun olmu\u015ftur. Pek \u00e7ok yerli ve uluslararas\u0131 g\u00f6zlemciye g\u00f6re referandum beyan\u0131 Irak\u2019ta KBY\u2019deki i\u00e7 siyasi geli\u015fmelerle olduk\u00e7a ilgilidir, ancak t\u00fcm b\u00f6lgeyi yeniden istikrars\u0131z bir hale getirme potansiyeli de ta\u015f\u0131maktad\u0131r. KBY\u2019deki farkl\u0131 siyasi gruplar aras\u0131nda ve ki\u015fisel etki anlam\u0131nda ayn\u0131 siyasi partilerin i\u00e7inde de pek \u00e7ok anla\u015fmazl\u0131k bulunmaktad\u0131r. \u0130ran, T\u00fcrkiye ve ABD bu referanduma kar\u015f\u0131 olduklar\u0131n\u0131 beyan etmi\u015f, \u0130srail ise sessiz kalm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r[7]<\/a>.<\/p>\nBir\u00e7ok siyasi fig\u00fcr Barzani\u2019yi bir ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131k referandumu konusunda \u0131srar etmek yerine Irak\u2019\u0131n I\u015e\u0130D sonras\u0131 sorunlar\u0131 ile ba\u015fa \u00e7\u0131kma konusuna odaklanmaya \u00e7a\u011f\u0131rm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131k referandumunun ard\u0131ndaki ana nedenler KBY\u2019nin ekonomik ve siyasi sorunlar\u0131yla ili\u015fkili g\u00f6r\u00fcnmektedir. I\u015e\u0130D\u2019in ortaya \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131, petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f ve KBY\u2019nin Irak b\u00fct\u00e7esindeki pay\u0131 konusunda Erbil ve Ba\u011fdat aras\u0131ndaki farkl\u0131l\u0131klar KBY\u2019de ciddi ekonomik sorunlara neden olmaktad\u0131r. Bu ekonomik sorunlar\u0131n yan\u0131nda farkl\u0131 siyasi fig\u00fcrler aras\u0131ndaki anla\u015fmazl\u0131klar da siyasi \u00e7\u0131kmazlara yol a\u00e7maktad\u0131r. Barzani\u2019nin ba\u015fkanl\u0131k s\u00fcresi 2015 y\u0131l\u0131 A\u011fustos ay\u0131nda dolmu\u015ftur[8]<\/a>. B\u00f6lge parlamentosu toplanmamaktad\u0131r, parlamento s\u00f6zc\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fcn Erbil\u2019e girmesi yasakt\u0131r. K\u00fcrdistan Yurtseverler Birli\u011fi\u2019nin (KYB) tarihi lideri Talabani hayatta olsa da sa\u011fl\u0131k sorunlar\u0131 nedeniyle bir rol\u00fc yoktur ve ayn\u0131 zamanda partisindeki liderlik yar\u0131\u015f\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fck bir tart\u0131\u015fma konusudur.<\/p>\nB\u00f6lgenin sorunlar\u0131 do\u011frultusunda, Barzani\u2019nin KBY\u2019yi teknik ve idari konular anlam\u0131nda bir referanduma haz\u0131rlamadan \u00f6nce KBY\u2019deki di\u011fer siyasi akt\u00f6rlerle bir mutabakat sa\u011flamas\u0131 gerekir. Barzani\u2019nin referandum ilan\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndaki saiklerden biri tarihsel \u00f6neme sahip bir referandum ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirmek yoluyla t\u00fcm bu sorunlar\u0131 kendi lehine \u00e7\u00f6zmektir. KBY Ba\u015fkan\u0131 olarak pozisyonuna meydan okumak ve referandumdan ki\u015fisel olarak kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flamas\u0131n\u0131 engellemek \u00fczere KYB ve De\u011fi\u015fim hareketi (Goran olarak bilinmektedir) B\u00f6lge Meclisi\u2019nin referandum konusunda oylama yapmak \u00fczere toplanmas\u0131n\u0131 istemekte ve parlamentoda normalle\u015fmenin ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131k referandumundan \u00f6nce gelmesi gerekti\u011fini savunmaktad\u0131rlar[9]<\/a>. Hem KYB i\u00e7inde Celal Talabani sonras\u0131 d\u00f6nemdeki anla\u015fmazl\u0131klar ve hem de De\u011fi\u015fim Hareketi i\u00e7inde partinin \u00f6nderlerinden No\u015firvan Mustafa\u2019n\u0131n \u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fcn ard\u0131ndan ortaya \u00e7\u0131kan haleflik konusu Mesud Barzani\u2019nin KBY i\u00e7inde en \u00f6nemli siyasi fig\u00fcr olarak kalmas\u0131na yard\u0131mc\u0131 olmu\u015ftur. KBY\u2019nin i\u00e7 dinamikleri \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki aylarda daha fazla dikkat gerektirecektir.<\/p>\nYeni Y\u00fczler \u0130stemek<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\nBunlara ilaveten Irak siyasi hayat\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6nemli sorunlar\u0131ndan bir di\u011feri farkl\u0131 siyasi fig\u00fcrler aras\u0131ndaki ayr\u0131l\u0131klard\u0131r. Farkl\u0131 etnik ve mezhep gruplar\u0131 ve partilerde mevcut siyasi fig\u00fcrlere ili\u015fkin yayg\u0131n bir hayal k\u0131r\u0131kl\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00f6z konusudur. 2018\u2019de yap\u0131lacak se\u00e7imlerde yeni siyasi fig\u00fcrlerin ortaya \u00e7\u0131kabilece\u011fine inan\u0131lmaktad\u0131r. Irak\u2019\u0131n s\u00fcregelen sorunlar\u0131 ile iktidar ve prestij sa\u011flamak i\u00e7in farkl\u0131 isimler aras\u0131ndaki m\u00fccadele g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcnde bulunduruldu\u011funda, siyasi arenada yeni isimlerin ortaya \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131 iste\u011fi g\u00f6ze \u00e7arpmaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n
S\u00fcnni Araplar aras\u0131ndaki liderlik sorunlar\u0131 I\u015e\u0130D\u2019in bozguna u\u011frat\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan daha da g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcr olmu\u015ftur. Mevcut liderlere g\u00fcvensizlik I\u015e\u0130D\u2019in k\u0131rg\u0131n S\u00fcnni kitlelerin duygular\u0131n\u0131 istismar etmesine yol a\u00e7m\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. \u00d6nde gelen S\u00fcnni siyaset\u00e7iler Diyala ve Ninova gibi vilayetlerdeki S\u00fcnni gruplar\u0131n haklar\u0131n\u0131 korumada ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131z olmakla su\u00e7lanmaktad\u0131r. Olas\u0131 yeni isimler hem \u00fclke i\u00e7inde hem de uluslararas\u0131 d\u00fczeyde diplomatik ve mali destek aray\u0131\u015f\u0131ndad\u0131r. I\u015e\u0130D sonras\u0131 Irak\u2019ta farkl\u0131 S\u00fcnni siyaset\u00e7ileri, farkl\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131 aras\u0131nda k\u00f6pr\u00fc kurmalar\u0131 ve S\u00fcnni gruplar\u0131n sorunlar\u0131yla ba\u015fa \u00e7\u0131kmalar\u0131 i\u00e7in bir araya getirmek i\u00e7in b\u00f6lgesel d\u00fczeyde \u00e7abalar vard\u0131r.<\/p>\n
\u015eii partiler aras\u0131ndaki ideolojik rekabete e\u015flik eden ki\u015fisel rekabet gelecek y\u0131l yap\u0131lacak olan se\u00e7imlerin yakla\u015fmas\u0131yla daha a\u00e7\u0131k hale gelmektedir. \u0130slami Davet Partisi (Hizb el-Dawa el-\u0130slamiyye olarak da bilinmektedir) i\u00e7inde \u0130badi ve Maliki aras\u0131ndaki rekabet herkes\u00e7e bilinmektedir ancak Irak siyasi hayat\u0131nda \u00f6nde gelen fig\u00fcrlerden olmay\u0131 ama\u00e7layan di\u011fer isimler de vard\u0131r. \u015eiilerin bask\u0131n oldu\u011fu di\u011fer partiler de yakla\u015fan se\u00e7imlerde etkili olabilmek i\u00e7in s\u00fcrekli bir rekabet i\u00e7indedirler. Yukar\u0131da tart\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z gibi, K\u00fcrt siyasi fig\u00fcrler aras\u0131nda da, \u00f6nemli partilerin ikisindeki d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm nedeniyle, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki y\u0131llarda baz\u0131 de\u011fi\u015fiklikler ortaya \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131n\u0131 bekleyebiliriz. KBY\u2019de \u0130slami partilere deste\u011fin artt\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6ze \u00e7arpan di\u011fer bir detayd\u0131r. Irak siyasal sisteminin do\u011fas\u0131 ve devlet ayg\u0131t\u0131 d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda ba\u015fka herhangi bir ekonomik g\u00fc\u00e7 zemini bulunmay\u0131\u015f\u0131, Irak siyasi ya\u015fam\u0131nda olduk\u00e7a y\u0131k\u0131c\u0131 bir \u00e7evre olu\u015fmas\u0131na yol a\u00e7maktad\u0131r. Irak kamuoyunun geni\u015f kesimleri bu hakikatten yorulmu\u015ftur ve alternatif isim ve programlar aramaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n
I\u015e\u0130D\u2019in Musul\u2019dan \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131lmas\u0131 Irak tarihinde bir b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fc sonland\u0131rm\u0131\u015f olabilir. Bu Irak\u2019\u0131n ve b\u00f6lgenin g\u00fcvenli\u011fi i\u00e7in olduk\u00e7a iyi bir haberdir. I\u015e\u0130D\u2019e kar\u015f\u0131 m\u00fccadelenin ivedili\u011fi nedeniyle unutulmu\u015f olan sorunlar ve anla\u015fmazl\u0131klar \u015fu andan itibaren Irak siyasetinin g\u00fcndeminde bask\u0131n olacakt\u0131r. Bu kapsaml\u0131 ve acil sorunlar i\u00e7in Irak yetkililerin enerji ve zamana gereksinimi vard\u0131r ancak Irak\u2019\u0131n bu ba\u011flamdaki ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131 b\u00f6lgenin istikrara ula\u015fmas\u0131na katk\u0131 sa\u011flayacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Referanslar<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n[1]<\/a>\u201cAbadi hails \u2018great victory\u2019 against ISIL in Mosul.\u201d 10 Temmuz 2017. Eri\u015fim tarihi 21 Temmuz 2017. http:\/\/www.aljazeera.com\/news\/2017\/07\/iraq-abadi-mosul-victory-170709122533584.html<\/a><\/p>\n[2]<\/a>\u201cIraq to spend 20% of 2016 budget on defense.\u201d Rudaw. 29 Ekim 2015. Eri\u015fim tarihi 21 Temmuz 2017. http:\/\/www.rudaw.net\/english\/middleeast\/iraq\/291020151<\/a><\/p>\n[3]<\/a>\u201cIraq\u2019s parliament passes law legalizing Shia militias.\u201d 26 Kas\u0131m 2016. Eri\u015fim tarihi 21 Temmuz 2017. http:\/\/www.aljazeera.com\/news\/2016\/11\/iraq-parliament-passes-lawlegalising-shia-militias-161126133010696.html<\/a><\/p>\n[4]<\/a>Trends in World Military Expenditure, 2015, SIPRI Fact Sheet 2015, http:\/\/books.sipri.org\/files\/FS\/SIPRIFS1604.pdf<\/a><\/p>\n[5]<\/a>Trends in World Military Expenditure, 2015, SIPRI Fact Sheet 2015, http:\/\/books.sipri.org\/files\/FS\/SIPRIFS1604.pdf<\/a><\/p>\n[6]<\/a>\u201cRepairing Mosul\u2019s infrastructure will \u2018cost $1 billion\u2019.\u201d 06 Temmuz 2017. Eri\u015fim tarihi 21 Temmuz 2017. https:\/\/www.alaraby.co.uk\/english\/news\/2017\/7\/6\/repairing-mosulsinfrastructure-will-cost-1-billion<\/a><\/p>\n[7]<\/a>\u201cIran Criticizes Independence Vote In Iraq\u2019s Kurdistan Region.\u201d Radio Free Europe. 10 Haziran 2017. Eri\u015fim tarihi 21 Temmuz 2017. https:\/\/www.rferl.org\/a\/iran-criticizes-iraq-kurdishindependence-vote\/28539802.html<\/a><\/p>\nAyn\u0131 zamanda bkz: \u201cUS concerned Kurdish referendum could \u2018distract\u2019 from IS fight.\u201d 09 Haziran 2017. Eri\u015fim tarihi 21 Temmuz 2017. https:\/\/www.alaraby.co.uk\/english\/news\/2017\/6\/9\/kurdish-referendumwould-distract-from-is-fight-us-warns<\/a>, Bkz: \u201cIraqi and foreign reactions to Kurdish referendum plan.\u201d Rudaw. 6 Haziran 2017. Eri\u015fim tarihi 21 Temmuz 2017. http:\/\/www.rudaw.net\/english\/middleeast\/turkey\/09062017<\/a><\/p>\n[8]<\/a>\u201cUncertainty reigns in Iraqi Kurdistan as president\u2019s mandate expires.\u201d Reuters. 20 A\u011fustos 2015. Eri\u015fim tarihi 21 Temmuz 2017. http:\/\/www.reuters.com\/article\/us-iraq-kurdspresidency-idUSKCN0QP1V620150820<\/a><\/p>\n[9]<\/a>\u201cPUK, Gorran: Preparations for referendum should be made after parliament sits.\u201d Rudaw. 23 Haziran 2017. Eri\u015fim tarihi 21 Temmuz 2017. http:\/\/www.rudaw.net\/mobile\/english\/kurdistan\/230620174<\/a><\/p>\n <\/p>\n<\/div>
<\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Irak \u015eam \u0130slam Devleti\u2019nin (I\u015e\u0130D) Musul\u2019daki yenilgisi Irak\u2019\u0131n yak\u0131n tarihinde \u00f6nemli bir d\u00f6n\u00fcm noktas\u0131n\u0131 temsil etmektedir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":13,"featured_media":9722,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","ngg_post_thumbnail":0},"categories":[361],"tags":[],"asf_pub_issue":[10307],"asf_pub_region":[10321],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9721"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/13"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=9721"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9721\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":24032,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9721\/revisions\/24032"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/9722"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=9721"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=9721"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=9721"},{"taxonomy":"asf_pub_issue","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/asf_pub_issue?post=9721"},{"taxonomy":"asf_pub_region","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/asf_pub_region?post=9721"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}
Uzman G\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fc<\/a> \/ \/ Devlet & Devlet-D\u0131\u015f\u0131 Akt\u00f6rler<\/a><\/h6><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div>\u00d6zet<\/span><\/strong>: Irak \u015eam \u0130slam Devleti\u2019nin (I\u015e\u0130D) Musul\u2019daki yenilgisi Irak\u2019\u0131n yak\u0131n tarihinde \u00f6nemli bir d\u00f6n\u00fcm noktas\u0131n\u0131 temsil etmektedir. \u0130badi H\u00fck\u00fcmeti bu nedenle psikolojik olarak cesaretlenmi\u015fse de Irak\u2019taki mevcut sorunlar bu ba\u015far\u0131ya ra\u011fmen hala \u00fcrk\u00fct\u00fcc\u00fc boyutlardad\u0131r. Irak H\u00fck\u00fcmeti, m\u00fcltecilerin \u00fclkeye d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fc, Musul\u2019un yeniden in\u015fas\u0131, benzer ter\u00f6r gruplar\u0131n\u0131n ortaya \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6nleyici bir g\u00fcvenlik yap\u0131s\u0131 olu\u015fturma ve Irak\u2019taki fark\u0131 gruplar aras\u0131nda bir k\u00f6pr\u00fc olu\u015fturma g\u00f6revlerinin hepsini petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck oldu\u011fu bir d\u00f6nemde yerine getirmek zorundad\u0131r. Ba\u011fdat\u2019taki merkezi h\u00fck\u00fcmet i\u00e7in bir di\u011fer sorun da K\u00fcrdistan B\u00f6lgesel Y\u00f6netimi\u2019nin (KBY) ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131k referandum plan\u0131. Irak topra\u011f\u0131n\u0131n bir ter\u00f6r \u00f6rg\u00fct\u00fcn\u00fcn kontrol\u00fcnden \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131lmas\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fck bir rahatlama sa\u011flarken, art\u0131k h\u00fck\u00fcmet t\u00fcm dikkatini ve \u00e7abas\u0131n\u0131 vatanda\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n ihtiyac\u0131 olan temel hizmetleri sa\u011flamaya y\u00f6neltebilir. Ancak farkl\u0131 akt\u00f6rler ve par\u00e7alanm\u0131\u015f partiler aras\u0131ndaki siyasi \u00e7eki\u015fmeler ileriye d\u00f6n\u00fck sorunlara yenilerini eklemektedir. Ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131k referandumu plan\u0131na Kerk\u00fck\u2019\u00fcn de dahil edilme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve Halk Seferberlik G\u00fc\u00e7leri\u2019nin (Ha\u015fdi \u015eabi) Irak\u2019\u0131n g\u00fcvenlik yap\u0131s\u0131na eklenmesi, patlamaya haz\u0131r di\u011fer sorunlard\u0131r.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div>Irak Ba\u015fbakan\u0131 \u0130badi, ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz sonbaharda ba\u015flayan operasyonla kentin konrol\u00fcn\u00fc yeniden ele ge\u00e7irme ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131 g\u00f6sterdikleri i\u00e7in Irak g\u00fcvenlik g\u00fc\u00e7lerini tebrik etmek \u00fczere 9 Temmuz\u2019da Musul\u2019a bir ziyarette bulunmu\u015ftu. Irak \u015eam \u0130slam Devleti\u2019nin (I\u015e\u0130D) Musul\u2019da yenilgiye u\u011frat\u0131lmas\u0131yla Irak tarihinde k\u0131sa bir b\u00f6l\u00fcm daha sona ermi\u015f oldu[1]<\/a>. Her nas\u0131l olursa olsun, bu geli\u015fme \u0130badi y\u00f6netimi i\u00e7in Irak\u2019ta b\u00fcy\u00fck bir ba\u015far\u0131y\u0131 temsil ediyor. Musul\u2019da ilan edilen askeri ilerlemenin gecikmesine ve kentin bat\u0131 k\u0131sm\u0131ndaki devasa y\u0131k\u0131ma ra\u011fmen, Irak\u2019\u0131n ikinci b\u00fcy\u00fck kentinin I\u015e\u0130D\u2019in kontrol\u00fcnden \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131lmas\u0131 \u00fclkenin g\u00fcvenlik engelleriyle ba\u015fa \u00e7\u0131kma konusunda bir d\u00f6n\u00fcm noktas\u0131n\u0131 temsil ediyor.<\/p>\nI\u015e\u0130D \u00fc\u00e7 y\u0131l \u00f6nce Musul\u2019u ele ge\u00e7irmi\u015f ve B\u00fcy\u00fck el-Nuri Camii\u2019nde yeni bir devlet (halifelik) ilan etmi\u015fti. I\u015e\u0130D\u2019in Musul\u2019u ele ge\u00e7irmesi ve daha sonra Erbil ve Ba\u011fdat\u2019a do\u011fru ilerlemesi b\u00fcy\u00fck bir \u015foktu. Bu durum, bilhassa Irak H\u00fck\u00fcmetinin s\u00f6z konusu durumla kendi ba\u015f\u0131na m\u00fccadele etmesinin ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131zl\u0131kla sonu\u00e7land\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcne al\u0131narak I\u015e\u0130D\u2019i yenilgiye u\u011fratmak i\u00e7in uluslararas\u0131 bir koalisyonun kurulmas\u0131na zemin haz\u0131rlad\u0131. Irak ve Suriye topraklar\u0131n\u0131n baz\u0131 par\u00e7alar\u0131 halen I\u015e\u0130D\u2019in kontrol\u00fc alt\u0131nda, ancak Musul\u2019un kayb\u0131 ve Rakka\u2019daki ilerlemeler, I\u015e\u0130D\u2019in b\u00f6lgesel olarak varl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n sonuna yakla\u015fmakta oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor. Irak H\u00fck\u00fcmeti\u2019nin halihaz\u0131rdaki g\u00f6revi, I\u015e\u0130D\u2019in kontrol\u00fcnde kalan topraklar\u0131 \u00f6zg\u00fcrle\u015ftirmenin yan\u0131 s\u0131ra yeniden g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesini \u00f6nlemek i\u00e7in gerekli ko\u015fullar\u0131 olu\u015fturmak ve onun egemenli\u011finden kurtulan kentlerde ve kasabalarda ya\u015fanan sorunlar\u0131 ele almakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n
G\u00fcvenlik Sorunlar\u0131<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\nI\u015e\u0130D\u2019in yenilgiye u\u011frat\u0131lmas\u0131ndan sonra Irak\u2019\u0131n mevcut sorunlar\u0131na kabaca bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda hala \u00fcstesinden gelinmesi gereken \u00f6nemli hususlar oldu\u011funu g\u00f6r\u00fclmektedir. Bunlardan ilki, \u00fclkeye zarar vermekte ve I\u015e\u0130D\u2019in b\u00f6lgesel kontrol\u00fc kaybetmeye uyum sa\u011flamak yoluyla ge\u00e7irece\u011fi d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcmle birlikte artmas\u0131 olas\u0131 olan ter\u00f6r tehdidini ortadan kald\u0131rmak. I\u015e\u0130D, b\u00f6lgeyi kontrol alt\u0131nda tutma bi\u00e7imiyle El Kaide ve di\u011fer ter\u00f6r gruplar\u0131ndan farkl\u0131yd\u0131 ve devlet olma iddias\u0131 onun ay\u0131r\u0131c\u0131 bir \u00f6zelli\u011fiydi. I\u015e\u0130D\u2019in bundan sonra Irak\u2019\u0131n farkl\u0131 kentlerinde ter\u00f6r sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131 ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirmek yoluyla ayakta kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrebilece\u011fi genel kabul g\u00f6rmektedir. I\u015e\u0130D \u015fu an Telafer ve Havija gibi b\u00f6lgeleri kontrol\u00fc alt\u0131nda tutmakta, bu da di\u011fer yerlere sald\u0131r\u0131 planlamalar\u0131na ve bu sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131 ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirmelerine olanak sa\u011flamaktad\u0131r. Bu b\u00f6lgeler kaybedildikten sonra I\u015e\u0130D mensuplar\u0131 \u00e7\u00f6le geri \u00e7ekilecek ve grup gelecekte Irak\u2019taki mevcudiyetini sa\u011flamak \u00fczere k\u0131rsaldaki k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck h\u00fccrelere ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131 olacakt\u0131r. Bu gruplar\u0131n kentlerde olas\u0131 sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6nlemek, I\u015e\u0130D sonras\u0131 s\u00fcre\u00e7te Irak H\u00fck\u00fcmeti\u2019nin \u00f6nceliklerinden biri olacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n
G\u00fcvenlik sorunlar\u0131 bak\u0131m\u0131ndan ele al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, I\u015e\u0130D\u2019in ortaya \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n Irak g\u00fcvenlik mekanizmalar\u0131n\u0131n eksik y\u00f6nlerini a\u00e7\u0131k\u00e7a ortaya koydu\u011fu s\u00f6ylenebilir. Irak H\u00fck\u00fcmeti g\u00fcvenlik g\u00fc\u00e7lerini yeniden yap\u0131land\u0131rmak i\u00e7in mali kaynaklar\u0131n\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fck bir k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131 harcam\u0131\u015f ve bu konu i\u00e7in b\u00fcy\u00fck bir \u00e7aba sarf etmi\u015ftir[2]<\/a>. Irak Ordusu resmi g\u00fc\u00e7leri ve kolluk kuvvetlerinin yan\u0131 s\u0131ra Ha\u015fdi \u015eabi olarak bilinen paramiliter grup I\u015e\u0130D\u2019e kar\u015f\u0131 m\u00fccadelede \u00f6nemli bir rol oynam\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Irak Parlamentosu Ha\u015fdi \u015eabi\u2019nin stat\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fc me\u015fru hale getirmek i\u00e7in 2016 y\u0131l\u0131 Kas\u0131m ay\u0131nda Ha\u015fdi \u015eabi\u2019yi Ba\u015fbakanl\u0131k himayesine alm\u0131\u015f, polis ve orduyu temel alarak \u00fcyelerine maa\u015f ba\u011flay\u0131p emeklilik hakk\u0131 vererek hukuki bir stat\u00fc sa\u011flam\u0131\u015ft\u0131r[3]<\/a>. Ha\u015fdi \u015eabi \u015femsiyesi alt\u0131nda Bedir \u00d6rg\u00fct\u00fc gibi mevcut g\u00fcvenlik yap\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n i\u00e7ine kar\u0131\u015fmaya ve h\u00fck\u00fcmetin emirlerine itaat etmeye istekli olan \u00e7e\u015fitli gruplar bulunmaktad\u0131r. Bu gruplar\u0131n Ha\u015fdi \u015eabi\u2019nin yakla\u015f\u0131k %80\u2019ini olu\u015fturdu\u011fu s\u00f6ylenmektedir. Bunlar\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda, Hizbullah Tugaylar\u0131 gibi (Kata\u2019ib Hizbullah olarak da bilinmektedir) Velayet-i Fakih \u00e7izgisini izleyen ve haliyle \u0130ran\u2019dan emir alan ba\u015fka gruplar da vard\u0131r. Irak\u2019\u0131n t\u00fcm bu g\u00fcvenlik yap\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n kontrol\u00fcn\u00fc kazanmas\u0131 devletin egemenli\u011fi i\u00e7in olduk\u00e7a \u00f6nemlidir. Irak\u2019ta i\u015flevsel bir devlet sistemi olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in, Ba\u015fbakan \u0130badi\u2019nin Ha\u015fdi \u015eabi\u2019nin uzla\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131 olanaks\u0131z olan bile\u015fenlerin kontrol\u00fcn\u00fc ele ge\u00e7irmek gibi \u00e7\u00f6zmek zorunda oldu\u011fu korkutucu sorunlar\u0131 vard\u0131r. Her hal\u00fck\u00e2rda \u00fclkenin g\u00fcvenlik ko\u015fullar\u0131 ve ekonomisi dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda Ba\u015fbakan\u2019\u0131n t\u00fcm bu g\u00fc\u00e7lerin kontrol\u00fcn\u00fc tamam\u0131yla ele ge\u00e7irmesi biraz zaman alacakt\u0131r. Buna ek olarak, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n da Irak\u2019\u0131n i\u00e7 siyasetine m\u00fcdahale etmesini sa\u011flayan b\u00f6yle etkin bir ara\u00e7tan vazge\u00e7meye niyeti olmayacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\nEkonomik Sorunlar<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n\u00dclkenin g\u00fcvenlik sorunlar\u0131 ile nas\u0131l ba\u015f edilece\u011fini de\u011ferlendirirken ekonomik fakt\u00f6rler de dikkate al\u0131nmal\u0131d\u0131r. Petrol \u00fcretimindeki ve ihracat\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015fa ra\u011fmen, petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f Irak ekonomisine zarar vermektedir. 2006-2015 y\u0131llar\u0131 aras\u0131nda Irak\u2019\u0131n askeri harcamalar\u0131 %536 ile 13.1 milyar dolara \u00e7\u0131km\u0131\u015ft\u0131r[4]<\/a>. Ba\u015fka herhangi bir \u00fclkenin yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 harcamalardan olduk\u00e7a b\u00fcy\u00fck bir y\u00fczdelik art\u0131\u015f ordunun kurumsal altyap\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n yeniden tesis edilmesi zorunlulu\u011fundan ileri gelmektedir[5]<\/a>. I\u015e\u0130D ile m\u00fccadele, normalde altyap\u0131 projelerine tahsil edilecek olan mali kaynaklar\u0131n devasa boyutlara varan harcamalar sebebiyle \u00f6nemli bir k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131 t\u00fcketmi\u015ftir. Irak H\u00fck\u00fcmeti, I\u015e\u0130D Musul gibi alanlardan \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131ld\u0131ktan sonra \u00fclke i\u00e7inde yerinden edilmi\u015f yakla\u015f\u0131k bir milyon kadar ki\u015fiye yiyecek ve bar\u0131nma sa\u011flama gibi \u00e7ok b\u00fcy\u00fck sorunlarla kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131yad\u0131r. Geri al\u0131nan kentlerin yeniden in\u015fas\u0131ndan bahsetmiyoruz bile. BM g\u00f6revlilerine g\u00f6re, \u00fclkedeki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalardan en \u00e7ok zarar\u0131 Musul\u2019un bat\u0131s\u0131 g\u00f6rm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcr. Buray\u0131 yeniden in\u015fa etmek bir y\u0131ldan uzun zaman alacak ve ba\u015flang\u0131\u00e7ta \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015f olan masraf\u0131 ikiye katlayacakt\u0131r. Kentin altyap\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n onar\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131n en az 1 milyar dolara mal olaca\u011f\u0131 s\u00f6ylenmektedir[6]<\/a>. Mevcut petrol fiyatlar\u0131yla bu sorunlar\u0131n \u00fcstesinden gelmek, Irak H\u00fck\u00fcmeti\u2019nin i\u015fini \u00fcst\u00fcn gayret gerektiren bir g\u00f6rev haline getirmektedir.<\/p>\nGelecekte I\u015e\u0130D\u2019in olas\u0131 ter\u00f6r sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6nleme konusunda en \u00f6nemli \u00f6nceliklerden biri benzer ter\u00f6r \u00f6rg\u00fctlerinin ortaya \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6nlemek olmal\u0131d\u0131r. I\u015e\u0130D\u2019nin ortaya \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131na ve y\u00fckseli\u015fine zemin haz\u0131rlayan fakt\u00f6rlere bakarsak, en \u00f6nemli konu Irak\u2019taki S\u00fcnni Arap n\u00fcfusun temel etno-mezhepsel sorunlar\u0131na hitap edilmemesidir. Bu sorunlar \u00f6nemli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde S\u00fcnnilerin kendisini h\u00fck\u00fcmete yabanc\u0131 hissetmesi, \u00e7o\u011funlukta oldu\u011fu alanlardaki g\u00fcvenlik sorunlar\u0131 ve buralara di\u011fer hizmetlerin sa\u011flanmam\u0131\u015f olmas\u0131, terk edilmi\u015flik hissi ve uygun siyasi temsilin olmamas\u0131d\u0131r. I\u015e\u0130D, Irak\u2019\u0131n geni\u015f alanlar\u0131n\u0131n kontrol\u00fcn\u00fc eline ge\u00e7irmek i\u00e7in bu kayg\u0131lar\u0131 kendi \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131na kullanmaktad\u0131r. Bu ba\u011flamda, \u00fclkenin son birka\u00e7 y\u0131lda ya\u015fad\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131n tekrarlanmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6nlemek i\u00e7in Irak H\u00fck\u00fcmeti \u00fclkedeki farkl\u0131 gruplar\u0131n sosyal yeniden entegrasyonu konusuna odaklanmal\u0131d\u0131r. Bu da kapsay\u0131c\u0131 ve temsili h\u00fck\u00fcmet yap\u0131lar\u0131, i\u015fler bir devlet sistemi ve etkili b\u00fcrokrasi yoluyla ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirilebilir. Hi\u00e7 \u015f\u00fcphesiz bunlar\u0131 s\u00f6ylemek yapmaktan kolayd\u0131r. Bu konuda inand\u0131r\u0131c\u0131 olmak i\u00e7in Irak h\u00fck\u00fcmeti toplumun t\u00fcm farkl\u0131 kesimlerinin g\u00fcvenini kazanmal\u0131d\u0131r.<\/p>\n
KBY\u2019nin Ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131k Giri\u015fimi<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\nSosyal yeniden entegrasyon anlam\u0131nda, S\u00fcnni Arap n\u00fcfusun sorunlar\u0131na hitap etmenin yan\u0131nda di\u011fer \u00f6nemli bir sorun ise Irakl\u0131 K\u00fcrtlerin gelece\u011fidir. K\u00fcrdistan B\u00f6lgesel Y\u00f6netimi (KBY) Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Mesud Barzani\u2019nin 25 Eyl\u00fcl 2017 tarihinde K\u00fcrtlerin ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131\u011f\u0131 konusunda bir referandum ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirilece\u011fini a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan Erbil ve Ba\u011fdat aras\u0131ndaki ili\u015fki I\u015e\u0130D sonras\u0131 Irak\u2019ta en \u00f6nemli sorun olmu\u015ftur. Pek \u00e7ok yerli ve uluslararas\u0131 g\u00f6zlemciye g\u00f6re referandum beyan\u0131 Irak\u2019ta KBY\u2019deki i\u00e7 siyasi geli\u015fmelerle olduk\u00e7a ilgilidir, ancak t\u00fcm b\u00f6lgeyi yeniden istikrars\u0131z bir hale getirme potansiyeli de ta\u015f\u0131maktad\u0131r. KBY\u2019deki farkl\u0131 siyasi gruplar aras\u0131nda ve ki\u015fisel etki anlam\u0131nda ayn\u0131 siyasi partilerin i\u00e7inde de pek \u00e7ok anla\u015fmazl\u0131k bulunmaktad\u0131r. \u0130ran, T\u00fcrkiye ve ABD bu referanduma kar\u015f\u0131 olduklar\u0131n\u0131 beyan etmi\u015f, \u0130srail ise sessiz kalm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r[7]<\/a>.<\/p>\nBir\u00e7ok siyasi fig\u00fcr Barzani\u2019yi bir ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131k referandumu konusunda \u0131srar etmek yerine Irak\u2019\u0131n I\u015e\u0130D sonras\u0131 sorunlar\u0131 ile ba\u015fa \u00e7\u0131kma konusuna odaklanmaya \u00e7a\u011f\u0131rm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131k referandumunun ard\u0131ndaki ana nedenler KBY\u2019nin ekonomik ve siyasi sorunlar\u0131yla ili\u015fkili g\u00f6r\u00fcnmektedir. I\u015e\u0130D\u2019in ortaya \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131, petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f ve KBY\u2019nin Irak b\u00fct\u00e7esindeki pay\u0131 konusunda Erbil ve Ba\u011fdat aras\u0131ndaki farkl\u0131l\u0131klar KBY\u2019de ciddi ekonomik sorunlara neden olmaktad\u0131r. Bu ekonomik sorunlar\u0131n yan\u0131nda farkl\u0131 siyasi fig\u00fcrler aras\u0131ndaki anla\u015fmazl\u0131klar da siyasi \u00e7\u0131kmazlara yol a\u00e7maktad\u0131r. Barzani\u2019nin ba\u015fkanl\u0131k s\u00fcresi 2015 y\u0131l\u0131 A\u011fustos ay\u0131nda dolmu\u015ftur[8]<\/a>. B\u00f6lge parlamentosu toplanmamaktad\u0131r, parlamento s\u00f6zc\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fcn Erbil\u2019e girmesi yasakt\u0131r. K\u00fcrdistan Yurtseverler Birli\u011fi\u2019nin (KYB) tarihi lideri Talabani hayatta olsa da sa\u011fl\u0131k sorunlar\u0131 nedeniyle bir rol\u00fc yoktur ve ayn\u0131 zamanda partisindeki liderlik yar\u0131\u015f\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fck bir tart\u0131\u015fma konusudur.<\/p>\nB\u00f6lgenin sorunlar\u0131 do\u011frultusunda, Barzani\u2019nin KBY\u2019yi teknik ve idari konular anlam\u0131nda bir referanduma haz\u0131rlamadan \u00f6nce KBY\u2019deki di\u011fer siyasi akt\u00f6rlerle bir mutabakat sa\u011flamas\u0131 gerekir. Barzani\u2019nin referandum ilan\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndaki saiklerden biri tarihsel \u00f6neme sahip bir referandum ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirmek yoluyla t\u00fcm bu sorunlar\u0131 kendi lehine \u00e7\u00f6zmektir. KBY Ba\u015fkan\u0131 olarak pozisyonuna meydan okumak ve referandumdan ki\u015fisel olarak kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flamas\u0131n\u0131 engellemek \u00fczere KYB ve De\u011fi\u015fim hareketi (Goran olarak bilinmektedir) B\u00f6lge Meclisi\u2019nin referandum konusunda oylama yapmak \u00fczere toplanmas\u0131n\u0131 istemekte ve parlamentoda normalle\u015fmenin ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131k referandumundan \u00f6nce gelmesi gerekti\u011fini savunmaktad\u0131rlar[9]<\/a>. Hem KYB i\u00e7inde Celal Talabani sonras\u0131 d\u00f6nemdeki anla\u015fmazl\u0131klar ve hem de De\u011fi\u015fim Hareketi i\u00e7inde partinin \u00f6nderlerinden No\u015firvan Mustafa\u2019n\u0131n \u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fcn ard\u0131ndan ortaya \u00e7\u0131kan haleflik konusu Mesud Barzani\u2019nin KBY i\u00e7inde en \u00f6nemli siyasi fig\u00fcr olarak kalmas\u0131na yard\u0131mc\u0131 olmu\u015ftur. KBY\u2019nin i\u00e7 dinamikleri \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki aylarda daha fazla dikkat gerektirecektir.<\/p>\nYeni Y\u00fczler \u0130stemek<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\nBunlara ilaveten Irak siyasi hayat\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6nemli sorunlar\u0131ndan bir di\u011feri farkl\u0131 siyasi fig\u00fcrler aras\u0131ndaki ayr\u0131l\u0131klard\u0131r. Farkl\u0131 etnik ve mezhep gruplar\u0131 ve partilerde mevcut siyasi fig\u00fcrlere ili\u015fkin yayg\u0131n bir hayal k\u0131r\u0131kl\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00f6z konusudur. 2018\u2019de yap\u0131lacak se\u00e7imlerde yeni siyasi fig\u00fcrlerin ortaya \u00e7\u0131kabilece\u011fine inan\u0131lmaktad\u0131r. Irak\u2019\u0131n s\u00fcregelen sorunlar\u0131 ile iktidar ve prestij sa\u011flamak i\u00e7in farkl\u0131 isimler aras\u0131ndaki m\u00fccadele g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcnde bulunduruldu\u011funda, siyasi arenada yeni isimlerin ortaya \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131 iste\u011fi g\u00f6ze \u00e7arpmaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n
S\u00fcnni Araplar aras\u0131ndaki liderlik sorunlar\u0131 I\u015e\u0130D\u2019in bozguna u\u011frat\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan daha da g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcr olmu\u015ftur. Mevcut liderlere g\u00fcvensizlik I\u015e\u0130D\u2019in k\u0131rg\u0131n S\u00fcnni kitlelerin duygular\u0131n\u0131 istismar etmesine yol a\u00e7m\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. \u00d6nde gelen S\u00fcnni siyaset\u00e7iler Diyala ve Ninova gibi vilayetlerdeki S\u00fcnni gruplar\u0131n haklar\u0131n\u0131 korumada ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131z olmakla su\u00e7lanmaktad\u0131r. Olas\u0131 yeni isimler hem \u00fclke i\u00e7inde hem de uluslararas\u0131 d\u00fczeyde diplomatik ve mali destek aray\u0131\u015f\u0131ndad\u0131r. I\u015e\u0130D sonras\u0131 Irak\u2019ta farkl\u0131 S\u00fcnni siyaset\u00e7ileri, farkl\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131 aras\u0131nda k\u00f6pr\u00fc kurmalar\u0131 ve S\u00fcnni gruplar\u0131n sorunlar\u0131yla ba\u015fa \u00e7\u0131kmalar\u0131 i\u00e7in bir araya getirmek i\u00e7in b\u00f6lgesel d\u00fczeyde \u00e7abalar vard\u0131r.<\/p>\n
\u015eii partiler aras\u0131ndaki ideolojik rekabete e\u015flik eden ki\u015fisel rekabet gelecek y\u0131l yap\u0131lacak olan se\u00e7imlerin yakla\u015fmas\u0131yla daha a\u00e7\u0131k hale gelmektedir. \u0130slami Davet Partisi (Hizb el-Dawa el-\u0130slamiyye olarak da bilinmektedir) i\u00e7inde \u0130badi ve Maliki aras\u0131ndaki rekabet herkes\u00e7e bilinmektedir ancak Irak siyasi hayat\u0131nda \u00f6nde gelen fig\u00fcrlerden olmay\u0131 ama\u00e7layan di\u011fer isimler de vard\u0131r. \u015eiilerin bask\u0131n oldu\u011fu di\u011fer partiler de yakla\u015fan se\u00e7imlerde etkili olabilmek i\u00e7in s\u00fcrekli bir rekabet i\u00e7indedirler. Yukar\u0131da tart\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z gibi, K\u00fcrt siyasi fig\u00fcrler aras\u0131nda da, \u00f6nemli partilerin ikisindeki d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm nedeniyle, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki y\u0131llarda baz\u0131 de\u011fi\u015fiklikler ortaya \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131n\u0131 bekleyebiliriz. KBY\u2019de \u0130slami partilere deste\u011fin artt\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6ze \u00e7arpan di\u011fer bir detayd\u0131r. Irak siyasal sisteminin do\u011fas\u0131 ve devlet ayg\u0131t\u0131 d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda ba\u015fka herhangi bir ekonomik g\u00fc\u00e7 zemini bulunmay\u0131\u015f\u0131, Irak siyasi ya\u015fam\u0131nda olduk\u00e7a y\u0131k\u0131c\u0131 bir \u00e7evre olu\u015fmas\u0131na yol a\u00e7maktad\u0131r. Irak kamuoyunun geni\u015f kesimleri bu hakikatten yorulmu\u015ftur ve alternatif isim ve programlar aramaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n
I\u015e\u0130D\u2019in Musul\u2019dan \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131lmas\u0131 Irak tarihinde bir b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fc sonland\u0131rm\u0131\u015f olabilir. Bu Irak\u2019\u0131n ve b\u00f6lgenin g\u00fcvenli\u011fi i\u00e7in olduk\u00e7a iyi bir haberdir. I\u015e\u0130D\u2019e kar\u015f\u0131 m\u00fccadelenin ivedili\u011fi nedeniyle unutulmu\u015f olan sorunlar ve anla\u015fmazl\u0131klar \u015fu andan itibaren Irak siyasetinin g\u00fcndeminde bask\u0131n olacakt\u0131r. Bu kapsaml\u0131 ve acil sorunlar i\u00e7in Irak yetkililerin enerji ve zamana gereksinimi vard\u0131r ancak Irak\u2019\u0131n bu ba\u011flamdaki ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131 b\u00f6lgenin istikrara ula\u015fmas\u0131na katk\u0131 sa\u011flayacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Referanslar<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n[1]<\/a>\u201cAbadi hails \u2018great victory\u2019 against ISIL in Mosul.\u201d 10 Temmuz 2017. Eri\u015fim tarihi 21 Temmuz 2017. http:\/\/www.aljazeera.com\/news\/2017\/07\/iraq-abadi-mosul-victory-170709122533584.html<\/a><\/p>\n[2]<\/a>\u201cIraq to spend 20% of 2016 budget on defense.\u201d Rudaw. 29 Ekim 2015. Eri\u015fim tarihi 21 Temmuz 2017. http:\/\/www.rudaw.net\/english\/middleeast\/iraq\/291020151<\/a><\/p>\n[3]<\/a>\u201cIraq\u2019s parliament passes law legalizing Shia militias.\u201d 26 Kas\u0131m 2016. Eri\u015fim tarihi 21 Temmuz 2017. http:\/\/www.aljazeera.com\/news\/2016\/11\/iraq-parliament-passes-lawlegalising-shia-militias-161126133010696.html<\/a><\/p>\n[4]<\/a>Trends in World Military Expenditure, 2015, SIPRI Fact Sheet 2015, http:\/\/books.sipri.org\/files\/FS\/SIPRIFS1604.pdf<\/a><\/p>\n[5]<\/a>Trends in World Military Expenditure, 2015, SIPRI Fact Sheet 2015, http:\/\/books.sipri.org\/files\/FS\/SIPRIFS1604.pdf<\/a><\/p>\n[6]<\/a>\u201cRepairing Mosul\u2019s infrastructure will \u2018cost $1 billion\u2019.\u201d 06 Temmuz 2017. Eri\u015fim tarihi 21 Temmuz 2017. https:\/\/www.alaraby.co.uk\/english\/news\/2017\/7\/6\/repairing-mosulsinfrastructure-will-cost-1-billion<\/a><\/p>\n[7]<\/a>\u201cIran Criticizes Independence Vote In Iraq\u2019s Kurdistan Region.\u201d Radio Free Europe. 10 Haziran 2017. Eri\u015fim tarihi 21 Temmuz 2017. https:\/\/www.rferl.org\/a\/iran-criticizes-iraq-kurdishindependence-vote\/28539802.html<\/a><\/p>\nAyn\u0131 zamanda bkz: \u201cUS concerned Kurdish referendum could \u2018distract\u2019 from IS fight.\u201d 09 Haziran 2017. Eri\u015fim tarihi 21 Temmuz 2017. https:\/\/www.alaraby.co.uk\/english\/news\/2017\/6\/9\/kurdish-referendumwould-distract-from-is-fight-us-warns<\/a>, Bkz: \u201cIraqi and foreign reactions to Kurdish referendum plan.\u201d Rudaw. 6 Haziran 2017. Eri\u015fim tarihi 21 Temmuz 2017. http:\/\/www.rudaw.net\/english\/middleeast\/turkey\/09062017<\/a><\/p>\n[8]<\/a>\u201cUncertainty reigns in Iraqi Kurdistan as president\u2019s mandate expires.\u201d Reuters. 20 A\u011fustos 2015. Eri\u015fim tarihi 21 Temmuz 2017. http:\/\/www.reuters.com\/article\/us-iraq-kurdspresidency-idUSKCN0QP1V620150820<\/a><\/p>\n[9]<\/a>\u201cPUK, Gorran: Preparations for referendum should be made after parliament sits.\u201d Rudaw. 23 Haziran 2017. Eri\u015fim tarihi 21 Temmuz 2017. http:\/\/www.rudaw.net\/mobile\/english\/kurdistan\/230620174<\/a><\/p>\n <\/p>\n<\/div>
<\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Irak \u015eam \u0130slam Devleti\u2019nin (I\u015e\u0130D) Musul\u2019daki yenilgisi Irak\u2019\u0131n yak\u0131n tarihinde \u00f6nemli bir d\u00f6n\u00fcm noktas\u0131n\u0131 temsil etmektedir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":13,"featured_media":9722,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","ngg_post_thumbnail":0},"categories":[361],"tags":[],"asf_pub_issue":[10307],"asf_pub_region":[10321],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9721"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/13"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=9721"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9721\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":24032,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9721\/revisions\/24032"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/9722"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=9721"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=9721"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=9721"},{"taxonomy":"asf_pub_issue","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/asf_pub_issue?post=9721"},{"taxonomy":"asf_pub_region","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/asf_pub_region?post=9721"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}
\u00d6zet<\/span><\/strong>: Irak \u015eam \u0130slam Devleti\u2019nin (I\u015e\u0130D) Musul\u2019daki yenilgisi Irak\u2019\u0131n yak\u0131n tarihinde \u00f6nemli bir d\u00f6n\u00fcm noktas\u0131n\u0131 temsil etmektedir. \u0130badi H\u00fck\u00fcmeti bu nedenle psikolojik olarak cesaretlenmi\u015fse de Irak\u2019taki mevcut sorunlar bu ba\u015far\u0131ya ra\u011fmen hala \u00fcrk\u00fct\u00fcc\u00fc boyutlardad\u0131r. Irak H\u00fck\u00fcmeti, m\u00fcltecilerin \u00fclkeye d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fc, Musul\u2019un yeniden in\u015fas\u0131, benzer ter\u00f6r gruplar\u0131n\u0131n ortaya \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6nleyici bir g\u00fcvenlik yap\u0131s\u0131 olu\u015fturma ve Irak\u2019taki fark\u0131 gruplar aras\u0131nda bir k\u00f6pr\u00fc olu\u015fturma g\u00f6revlerinin hepsini petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck oldu\u011fu bir d\u00f6nemde yerine getirmek zorundad\u0131r. Ba\u011fdat\u2019taki merkezi h\u00fck\u00fcmet i\u00e7in bir di\u011fer sorun da K\u00fcrdistan B\u00f6lgesel Y\u00f6netimi\u2019nin (KBY) ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131k referandum plan\u0131. Irak topra\u011f\u0131n\u0131n bir ter\u00f6r \u00f6rg\u00fct\u00fcn\u00fcn kontrol\u00fcnden \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131lmas\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fck bir rahatlama sa\u011flarken, art\u0131k h\u00fck\u00fcmet t\u00fcm dikkatini ve \u00e7abas\u0131n\u0131 vatanda\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n ihtiyac\u0131 olan temel hizmetleri sa\u011flamaya y\u00f6neltebilir. Ancak farkl\u0131 akt\u00f6rler ve par\u00e7alanm\u0131\u015f partiler aras\u0131ndaki siyasi \u00e7eki\u015fmeler ileriye d\u00f6n\u00fck sorunlara yenilerini eklemektedir. Ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131k referandumu plan\u0131na Kerk\u00fck\u2019\u00fcn de dahil edilme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve Halk Seferberlik G\u00fc\u00e7leri\u2019nin (Ha\u015fdi \u015eabi) Irak\u2019\u0131n g\u00fcvenlik yap\u0131s\u0131na eklenmesi, patlamaya haz\u0131r di\u011fer sorunlard\u0131r.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div> Irak Ba\u015fbakan\u0131 \u0130badi, ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz sonbaharda ba\u015flayan operasyonla kentin konrol\u00fcn\u00fc yeniden ele ge\u00e7irme ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131 g\u00f6sterdikleri i\u00e7in Irak g\u00fcvenlik g\u00fc\u00e7lerini tebrik etmek \u00fczere 9 Temmuz\u2019da Musul\u2019a bir ziyarette bulunmu\u015ftu. Irak \u015eam \u0130slam Devleti\u2019nin (I\u015e\u0130D) Musul\u2019da yenilgiye u\u011frat\u0131lmas\u0131yla Irak tarihinde k\u0131sa bir b\u00f6l\u00fcm daha sona ermi\u015f oldu[1]<\/a>. Her nas\u0131l olursa olsun, bu geli\u015fme \u0130badi y\u00f6netimi i\u00e7in Irak\u2019ta b\u00fcy\u00fck bir ba\u015far\u0131y\u0131 temsil ediyor. Musul\u2019da ilan edilen askeri ilerlemenin gecikmesine ve kentin bat\u0131 k\u0131sm\u0131ndaki devasa y\u0131k\u0131ma ra\u011fmen, Irak\u2019\u0131n ikinci b\u00fcy\u00fck kentinin I\u015e\u0130D\u2019in kontrol\u00fcnden \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131lmas\u0131 \u00fclkenin g\u00fcvenlik engelleriyle ba\u015fa \u00e7\u0131kma konusunda bir d\u00f6n\u00fcm noktas\u0131n\u0131 temsil ediyor.<\/p>\n I\u015e\u0130D \u00fc\u00e7 y\u0131l \u00f6nce Musul\u2019u ele ge\u00e7irmi\u015f ve B\u00fcy\u00fck el-Nuri Camii\u2019nde yeni bir devlet (halifelik) ilan etmi\u015fti. I\u015e\u0130D\u2019in Musul\u2019u ele ge\u00e7irmesi ve daha sonra Erbil ve Ba\u011fdat\u2019a do\u011fru ilerlemesi b\u00fcy\u00fck bir \u015foktu. Bu durum, bilhassa Irak H\u00fck\u00fcmetinin s\u00f6z konusu durumla kendi ba\u015f\u0131na m\u00fccadele etmesinin ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131zl\u0131kla sonu\u00e7land\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcne al\u0131narak I\u015e\u0130D\u2019i yenilgiye u\u011fratmak i\u00e7in uluslararas\u0131 bir koalisyonun kurulmas\u0131na zemin haz\u0131rlad\u0131. Irak ve Suriye topraklar\u0131n\u0131n baz\u0131 par\u00e7alar\u0131 halen I\u015e\u0130D\u2019in kontrol\u00fc alt\u0131nda, ancak Musul\u2019un kayb\u0131 ve Rakka\u2019daki ilerlemeler, I\u015e\u0130D\u2019in b\u00f6lgesel olarak varl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n sonuna yakla\u015fmakta oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor. Irak H\u00fck\u00fcmeti\u2019nin halihaz\u0131rdaki g\u00f6revi, I\u015e\u0130D\u2019in kontrol\u00fcnde kalan topraklar\u0131 \u00f6zg\u00fcrle\u015ftirmenin yan\u0131 s\u0131ra yeniden g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesini \u00f6nlemek i\u00e7in gerekli ko\u015fullar\u0131 olu\u015fturmak ve onun egemenli\u011finden kurtulan kentlerde ve kasabalarda ya\u015fanan sorunlar\u0131 ele almakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n G\u00fcvenlik Sorunlar\u0131<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n I\u015e\u0130D\u2019in yenilgiye u\u011frat\u0131lmas\u0131ndan sonra Irak\u2019\u0131n mevcut sorunlar\u0131na kabaca bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda hala \u00fcstesinden gelinmesi gereken \u00f6nemli hususlar oldu\u011funu g\u00f6r\u00fclmektedir. Bunlardan ilki, \u00fclkeye zarar vermekte ve I\u015e\u0130D\u2019in b\u00f6lgesel kontrol\u00fc kaybetmeye uyum sa\u011flamak yoluyla ge\u00e7irece\u011fi d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcmle birlikte artmas\u0131 olas\u0131 olan ter\u00f6r tehdidini ortadan kald\u0131rmak. I\u015e\u0130D, b\u00f6lgeyi kontrol alt\u0131nda tutma bi\u00e7imiyle El Kaide ve di\u011fer ter\u00f6r gruplar\u0131ndan farkl\u0131yd\u0131 ve devlet olma iddias\u0131 onun ay\u0131r\u0131c\u0131 bir \u00f6zelli\u011fiydi. I\u015e\u0130D\u2019in bundan sonra Irak\u2019\u0131n farkl\u0131 kentlerinde ter\u00f6r sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131 ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirmek yoluyla ayakta kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrebilece\u011fi genel kabul g\u00f6rmektedir. I\u015e\u0130D \u015fu an Telafer ve Havija gibi b\u00f6lgeleri kontrol\u00fc alt\u0131nda tutmakta, bu da di\u011fer yerlere sald\u0131r\u0131 planlamalar\u0131na ve bu sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131 ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirmelerine olanak sa\u011flamaktad\u0131r. Bu b\u00f6lgeler kaybedildikten sonra I\u015e\u0130D mensuplar\u0131 \u00e7\u00f6le geri \u00e7ekilecek ve grup gelecekte Irak\u2019taki mevcudiyetini sa\u011flamak \u00fczere k\u0131rsaldaki k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck h\u00fccrelere ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131 olacakt\u0131r. Bu gruplar\u0131n kentlerde olas\u0131 sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6nlemek, I\u015e\u0130D sonras\u0131 s\u00fcre\u00e7te Irak H\u00fck\u00fcmeti\u2019nin \u00f6nceliklerinden biri olacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n G\u00fcvenlik sorunlar\u0131 bak\u0131m\u0131ndan ele al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, I\u015e\u0130D\u2019in ortaya \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n Irak g\u00fcvenlik mekanizmalar\u0131n\u0131n eksik y\u00f6nlerini a\u00e7\u0131k\u00e7a ortaya koydu\u011fu s\u00f6ylenebilir. Irak H\u00fck\u00fcmeti g\u00fcvenlik g\u00fc\u00e7lerini yeniden yap\u0131land\u0131rmak i\u00e7in mali kaynaklar\u0131n\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fck bir k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131 harcam\u0131\u015f ve bu konu i\u00e7in b\u00fcy\u00fck bir \u00e7aba sarf etmi\u015ftir[2]<\/a>. Irak Ordusu resmi g\u00fc\u00e7leri ve kolluk kuvvetlerinin yan\u0131 s\u0131ra Ha\u015fdi \u015eabi olarak bilinen paramiliter grup I\u015e\u0130D\u2019e kar\u015f\u0131 m\u00fccadelede \u00f6nemli bir rol oynam\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Irak Parlamentosu Ha\u015fdi \u015eabi\u2019nin stat\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fc me\u015fru hale getirmek i\u00e7in 2016 y\u0131l\u0131 Kas\u0131m ay\u0131nda Ha\u015fdi \u015eabi\u2019yi Ba\u015fbakanl\u0131k himayesine alm\u0131\u015f, polis ve orduyu temel alarak \u00fcyelerine maa\u015f ba\u011flay\u0131p emeklilik hakk\u0131 vererek hukuki bir stat\u00fc sa\u011flam\u0131\u015ft\u0131r[3]<\/a>. Ha\u015fdi \u015eabi \u015femsiyesi alt\u0131nda Bedir \u00d6rg\u00fct\u00fc gibi mevcut g\u00fcvenlik yap\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n i\u00e7ine kar\u0131\u015fmaya ve h\u00fck\u00fcmetin emirlerine itaat etmeye istekli olan \u00e7e\u015fitli gruplar bulunmaktad\u0131r. Bu gruplar\u0131n Ha\u015fdi \u015eabi\u2019nin yakla\u015f\u0131k %80\u2019ini olu\u015fturdu\u011fu s\u00f6ylenmektedir. Bunlar\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda, Hizbullah Tugaylar\u0131 gibi (Kata\u2019ib Hizbullah olarak da bilinmektedir) Velayet-i Fakih \u00e7izgisini izleyen ve haliyle \u0130ran\u2019dan emir alan ba\u015fka gruplar da vard\u0131r. Irak\u2019\u0131n t\u00fcm bu g\u00fcvenlik yap\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n kontrol\u00fcn\u00fc kazanmas\u0131 devletin egemenli\u011fi i\u00e7in olduk\u00e7a \u00f6nemlidir. Irak\u2019ta i\u015flevsel bir devlet sistemi olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in, Ba\u015fbakan \u0130badi\u2019nin Ha\u015fdi \u015eabi\u2019nin uzla\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131 olanaks\u0131z olan bile\u015fenlerin kontrol\u00fcn\u00fc ele ge\u00e7irmek gibi \u00e7\u00f6zmek zorunda oldu\u011fu korkutucu sorunlar\u0131 vard\u0131r. Her hal\u00fck\u00e2rda \u00fclkenin g\u00fcvenlik ko\u015fullar\u0131 ve ekonomisi dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda Ba\u015fbakan\u2019\u0131n t\u00fcm bu g\u00fc\u00e7lerin kontrol\u00fcn\u00fc tamam\u0131yla ele ge\u00e7irmesi biraz zaman alacakt\u0131r. Buna ek olarak, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n da Irak\u2019\u0131n i\u00e7 siyasetine m\u00fcdahale etmesini sa\u011flayan b\u00f6yle etkin bir ara\u00e7tan vazge\u00e7meye niyeti olmayacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n Ekonomik Sorunlar<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n \u00dclkenin g\u00fcvenlik sorunlar\u0131 ile nas\u0131l ba\u015f edilece\u011fini de\u011ferlendirirken ekonomik fakt\u00f6rler de dikkate al\u0131nmal\u0131d\u0131r. Petrol \u00fcretimindeki ve ihracat\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015fa ra\u011fmen, petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f Irak ekonomisine zarar vermektedir. 2006-2015 y\u0131llar\u0131 aras\u0131nda Irak\u2019\u0131n askeri harcamalar\u0131 %536 ile 13.1 milyar dolara \u00e7\u0131km\u0131\u015ft\u0131r[4]<\/a>. Ba\u015fka herhangi bir \u00fclkenin yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 harcamalardan olduk\u00e7a b\u00fcy\u00fck bir y\u00fczdelik art\u0131\u015f ordunun kurumsal altyap\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n yeniden tesis edilmesi zorunlulu\u011fundan ileri gelmektedir[5]<\/a>. I\u015e\u0130D ile m\u00fccadele, normalde altyap\u0131 projelerine tahsil edilecek olan mali kaynaklar\u0131n devasa boyutlara varan harcamalar sebebiyle \u00f6nemli bir k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131 t\u00fcketmi\u015ftir. Irak H\u00fck\u00fcmeti, I\u015e\u0130D Musul gibi alanlardan \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131ld\u0131ktan sonra \u00fclke i\u00e7inde yerinden edilmi\u015f yakla\u015f\u0131k bir milyon kadar ki\u015fiye yiyecek ve bar\u0131nma sa\u011flama gibi \u00e7ok b\u00fcy\u00fck sorunlarla kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131yad\u0131r. Geri al\u0131nan kentlerin yeniden in\u015fas\u0131ndan bahsetmiyoruz bile. BM g\u00f6revlilerine g\u00f6re, \u00fclkedeki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalardan en \u00e7ok zarar\u0131 Musul\u2019un bat\u0131s\u0131 g\u00f6rm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcr. Buray\u0131 yeniden in\u015fa etmek bir y\u0131ldan uzun zaman alacak ve ba\u015flang\u0131\u00e7ta \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015f olan masraf\u0131 ikiye katlayacakt\u0131r. Kentin altyap\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n onar\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131n en az 1 milyar dolara mal olaca\u011f\u0131 s\u00f6ylenmektedir[6]<\/a>. Mevcut petrol fiyatlar\u0131yla bu sorunlar\u0131n \u00fcstesinden gelmek, Irak H\u00fck\u00fcmeti\u2019nin i\u015fini \u00fcst\u00fcn gayret gerektiren bir g\u00f6rev haline getirmektedir.<\/p>\n Gelecekte I\u015e\u0130D\u2019in olas\u0131 ter\u00f6r sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6nleme konusunda en \u00f6nemli \u00f6nceliklerden biri benzer ter\u00f6r \u00f6rg\u00fctlerinin ortaya \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6nlemek olmal\u0131d\u0131r. I\u015e\u0130D\u2019nin ortaya \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131na ve y\u00fckseli\u015fine zemin haz\u0131rlayan fakt\u00f6rlere bakarsak, en \u00f6nemli konu Irak\u2019taki S\u00fcnni Arap n\u00fcfusun temel etno-mezhepsel sorunlar\u0131na hitap edilmemesidir. Bu sorunlar \u00f6nemli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde S\u00fcnnilerin kendisini h\u00fck\u00fcmete yabanc\u0131 hissetmesi, \u00e7o\u011funlukta oldu\u011fu alanlardaki g\u00fcvenlik sorunlar\u0131 ve buralara di\u011fer hizmetlerin sa\u011flanmam\u0131\u015f olmas\u0131, terk edilmi\u015flik hissi ve uygun siyasi temsilin olmamas\u0131d\u0131r. I\u015e\u0130D, Irak\u2019\u0131n geni\u015f alanlar\u0131n\u0131n kontrol\u00fcn\u00fc eline ge\u00e7irmek i\u00e7in bu kayg\u0131lar\u0131 kendi \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131na kullanmaktad\u0131r. Bu ba\u011flamda, \u00fclkenin son birka\u00e7 y\u0131lda ya\u015fad\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131n tekrarlanmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6nlemek i\u00e7in Irak H\u00fck\u00fcmeti \u00fclkedeki farkl\u0131 gruplar\u0131n sosyal yeniden entegrasyonu konusuna odaklanmal\u0131d\u0131r. Bu da kapsay\u0131c\u0131 ve temsili h\u00fck\u00fcmet yap\u0131lar\u0131, i\u015fler bir devlet sistemi ve etkili b\u00fcrokrasi yoluyla ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirilebilir. Hi\u00e7 \u015f\u00fcphesiz bunlar\u0131 s\u00f6ylemek yapmaktan kolayd\u0131r. Bu konuda inand\u0131r\u0131c\u0131 olmak i\u00e7in Irak h\u00fck\u00fcmeti toplumun t\u00fcm farkl\u0131 kesimlerinin g\u00fcvenini kazanmal\u0131d\u0131r.<\/p>\n KBY\u2019nin Ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131k Giri\u015fimi<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n Sosyal yeniden entegrasyon anlam\u0131nda, S\u00fcnni Arap n\u00fcfusun sorunlar\u0131na hitap etmenin yan\u0131nda di\u011fer \u00f6nemli bir sorun ise Irakl\u0131 K\u00fcrtlerin gelece\u011fidir. K\u00fcrdistan B\u00f6lgesel Y\u00f6netimi (KBY) Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Mesud Barzani\u2019nin 25 Eyl\u00fcl 2017 tarihinde K\u00fcrtlerin ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131\u011f\u0131 konusunda bir referandum ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirilece\u011fini a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan Erbil ve Ba\u011fdat aras\u0131ndaki ili\u015fki I\u015e\u0130D sonras\u0131 Irak\u2019ta en \u00f6nemli sorun olmu\u015ftur. Pek \u00e7ok yerli ve uluslararas\u0131 g\u00f6zlemciye g\u00f6re referandum beyan\u0131 Irak\u2019ta KBY\u2019deki i\u00e7 siyasi geli\u015fmelerle olduk\u00e7a ilgilidir, ancak t\u00fcm b\u00f6lgeyi yeniden istikrars\u0131z bir hale getirme potansiyeli de ta\u015f\u0131maktad\u0131r. KBY\u2019deki farkl\u0131 siyasi gruplar aras\u0131nda ve ki\u015fisel etki anlam\u0131nda ayn\u0131 siyasi partilerin i\u00e7inde de pek \u00e7ok anla\u015fmazl\u0131k bulunmaktad\u0131r. \u0130ran, T\u00fcrkiye ve ABD bu referanduma kar\u015f\u0131 olduklar\u0131n\u0131 beyan etmi\u015f, \u0130srail ise sessiz kalm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r[7]<\/a>.<\/p>\n Bir\u00e7ok siyasi fig\u00fcr Barzani\u2019yi bir ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131k referandumu konusunda \u0131srar etmek yerine Irak\u2019\u0131n I\u015e\u0130D sonras\u0131 sorunlar\u0131 ile ba\u015fa \u00e7\u0131kma konusuna odaklanmaya \u00e7a\u011f\u0131rm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131k referandumunun ard\u0131ndaki ana nedenler KBY\u2019nin ekonomik ve siyasi sorunlar\u0131yla ili\u015fkili g\u00f6r\u00fcnmektedir. I\u015e\u0130D\u2019in ortaya \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131, petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f ve KBY\u2019nin Irak b\u00fct\u00e7esindeki pay\u0131 konusunda Erbil ve Ba\u011fdat aras\u0131ndaki farkl\u0131l\u0131klar KBY\u2019de ciddi ekonomik sorunlara neden olmaktad\u0131r. Bu ekonomik sorunlar\u0131n yan\u0131nda farkl\u0131 siyasi fig\u00fcrler aras\u0131ndaki anla\u015fmazl\u0131klar da siyasi \u00e7\u0131kmazlara yol a\u00e7maktad\u0131r. Barzani\u2019nin ba\u015fkanl\u0131k s\u00fcresi 2015 y\u0131l\u0131 A\u011fustos ay\u0131nda dolmu\u015ftur[8]<\/a>. B\u00f6lge parlamentosu toplanmamaktad\u0131r, parlamento s\u00f6zc\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fcn Erbil\u2019e girmesi yasakt\u0131r. K\u00fcrdistan Yurtseverler Birli\u011fi\u2019nin (KYB) tarihi lideri Talabani hayatta olsa da sa\u011fl\u0131k sorunlar\u0131 nedeniyle bir rol\u00fc yoktur ve ayn\u0131 zamanda partisindeki liderlik yar\u0131\u015f\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fck bir tart\u0131\u015fma konusudur.<\/p>\n B\u00f6lgenin sorunlar\u0131 do\u011frultusunda, Barzani\u2019nin KBY\u2019yi teknik ve idari konular anlam\u0131nda bir referanduma haz\u0131rlamadan \u00f6nce KBY\u2019deki di\u011fer siyasi akt\u00f6rlerle bir mutabakat sa\u011flamas\u0131 gerekir. Barzani\u2019nin referandum ilan\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndaki saiklerden biri tarihsel \u00f6neme sahip bir referandum ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirmek yoluyla t\u00fcm bu sorunlar\u0131 kendi lehine \u00e7\u00f6zmektir. KBY Ba\u015fkan\u0131 olarak pozisyonuna meydan okumak ve referandumdan ki\u015fisel olarak kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flamas\u0131n\u0131 engellemek \u00fczere KYB ve De\u011fi\u015fim hareketi (Goran olarak bilinmektedir) B\u00f6lge Meclisi\u2019nin referandum konusunda oylama yapmak \u00fczere toplanmas\u0131n\u0131 istemekte ve parlamentoda normalle\u015fmenin ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131k referandumundan \u00f6nce gelmesi gerekti\u011fini savunmaktad\u0131rlar[9]<\/a>. Hem KYB i\u00e7inde Celal Talabani sonras\u0131 d\u00f6nemdeki anla\u015fmazl\u0131klar ve hem de De\u011fi\u015fim Hareketi i\u00e7inde partinin \u00f6nderlerinden No\u015firvan Mustafa\u2019n\u0131n \u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fcn ard\u0131ndan ortaya \u00e7\u0131kan haleflik konusu Mesud Barzani\u2019nin KBY i\u00e7inde en \u00f6nemli siyasi fig\u00fcr olarak kalmas\u0131na yard\u0131mc\u0131 olmu\u015ftur. KBY\u2019nin i\u00e7 dinamikleri \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki aylarda daha fazla dikkat gerektirecektir.<\/p>\n Yeni Y\u00fczler \u0130stemek<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n Bunlara ilaveten Irak siyasi hayat\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6nemli sorunlar\u0131ndan bir di\u011feri farkl\u0131 siyasi fig\u00fcrler aras\u0131ndaki ayr\u0131l\u0131klard\u0131r. Farkl\u0131 etnik ve mezhep gruplar\u0131 ve partilerde mevcut siyasi fig\u00fcrlere ili\u015fkin yayg\u0131n bir hayal k\u0131r\u0131kl\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00f6z konusudur. 2018\u2019de yap\u0131lacak se\u00e7imlerde yeni siyasi fig\u00fcrlerin ortaya \u00e7\u0131kabilece\u011fine inan\u0131lmaktad\u0131r. Irak\u2019\u0131n s\u00fcregelen sorunlar\u0131 ile iktidar ve prestij sa\u011flamak i\u00e7in farkl\u0131 isimler aras\u0131ndaki m\u00fccadele g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcnde bulunduruldu\u011funda, siyasi arenada yeni isimlerin ortaya \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131 iste\u011fi g\u00f6ze \u00e7arpmaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n S\u00fcnni Araplar aras\u0131ndaki liderlik sorunlar\u0131 I\u015e\u0130D\u2019in bozguna u\u011frat\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan daha da g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcr olmu\u015ftur. Mevcut liderlere g\u00fcvensizlik I\u015e\u0130D\u2019in k\u0131rg\u0131n S\u00fcnni kitlelerin duygular\u0131n\u0131 istismar etmesine yol a\u00e7m\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. \u00d6nde gelen S\u00fcnni siyaset\u00e7iler Diyala ve Ninova gibi vilayetlerdeki S\u00fcnni gruplar\u0131n haklar\u0131n\u0131 korumada ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131z olmakla su\u00e7lanmaktad\u0131r. Olas\u0131 yeni isimler hem \u00fclke i\u00e7inde hem de uluslararas\u0131 d\u00fczeyde diplomatik ve mali destek aray\u0131\u015f\u0131ndad\u0131r. I\u015e\u0130D sonras\u0131 Irak\u2019ta farkl\u0131 S\u00fcnni siyaset\u00e7ileri, farkl\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131 aras\u0131nda k\u00f6pr\u00fc kurmalar\u0131 ve S\u00fcnni gruplar\u0131n sorunlar\u0131yla ba\u015fa \u00e7\u0131kmalar\u0131 i\u00e7in bir araya getirmek i\u00e7in b\u00f6lgesel d\u00fczeyde \u00e7abalar vard\u0131r.<\/p>\n \u015eii partiler aras\u0131ndaki ideolojik rekabete e\u015flik eden ki\u015fisel rekabet gelecek y\u0131l yap\u0131lacak olan se\u00e7imlerin yakla\u015fmas\u0131yla daha a\u00e7\u0131k hale gelmektedir. \u0130slami Davet Partisi (Hizb el-Dawa el-\u0130slamiyye olarak da bilinmektedir) i\u00e7inde \u0130badi ve Maliki aras\u0131ndaki rekabet herkes\u00e7e bilinmektedir ancak Irak siyasi hayat\u0131nda \u00f6nde gelen fig\u00fcrlerden olmay\u0131 ama\u00e7layan di\u011fer isimler de vard\u0131r. \u015eiilerin bask\u0131n oldu\u011fu di\u011fer partiler de yakla\u015fan se\u00e7imlerde etkili olabilmek i\u00e7in s\u00fcrekli bir rekabet i\u00e7indedirler. Yukar\u0131da tart\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z gibi, K\u00fcrt siyasi fig\u00fcrler aras\u0131nda da, \u00f6nemli partilerin ikisindeki d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm nedeniyle, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki y\u0131llarda baz\u0131 de\u011fi\u015fiklikler ortaya \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131n\u0131 bekleyebiliriz. KBY\u2019de \u0130slami partilere deste\u011fin artt\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6ze \u00e7arpan di\u011fer bir detayd\u0131r. Irak siyasal sisteminin do\u011fas\u0131 ve devlet ayg\u0131t\u0131 d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda ba\u015fka herhangi bir ekonomik g\u00fc\u00e7 zemini bulunmay\u0131\u015f\u0131, Irak siyasi ya\u015fam\u0131nda olduk\u00e7a y\u0131k\u0131c\u0131 bir \u00e7evre olu\u015fmas\u0131na yol a\u00e7maktad\u0131r. Irak kamuoyunun geni\u015f kesimleri bu hakikatten yorulmu\u015ftur ve alternatif isim ve programlar aramaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n I\u015e\u0130D\u2019in Musul\u2019dan \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131lmas\u0131 Irak tarihinde bir b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fc sonland\u0131rm\u0131\u015f olabilir. Bu Irak\u2019\u0131n ve b\u00f6lgenin g\u00fcvenli\u011fi i\u00e7in olduk\u00e7a iyi bir haberdir. I\u015e\u0130D\u2019e kar\u015f\u0131 m\u00fccadelenin ivedili\u011fi nedeniyle unutulmu\u015f olan sorunlar ve anla\u015fmazl\u0131klar \u015fu andan itibaren Irak siyasetinin g\u00fcndeminde bask\u0131n olacakt\u0131r. Bu kapsaml\u0131 ve acil sorunlar i\u00e7in Irak yetkililerin enerji ve zamana gereksinimi vard\u0131r ancak Irak\u2019\u0131n bu ba\u011flamdaki ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131 b\u00f6lgenin istikrara ula\u015fmas\u0131na katk\u0131 sa\u011flayacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n Referanslar<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n [1]<\/a>\u201cAbadi hails \u2018great victory\u2019 against ISIL in Mosul.\u201d 10 Temmuz 2017. Eri\u015fim tarihi 21 Temmuz 2017. http:\/\/www.aljazeera.com\/news\/2017\/07\/iraq-abadi-mosul-victory-170709122533584.html<\/a><\/p>\n [2]<\/a>\u201cIraq to spend 20% of 2016 budget on defense.\u201d Rudaw. 29 Ekim 2015. Eri\u015fim tarihi 21 Temmuz 2017. http:\/\/www.rudaw.net\/english\/middleeast\/iraq\/291020151<\/a><\/p>\n [3]<\/a>\u201cIraq\u2019s parliament passes law legalizing Shia militias.\u201d 26 Kas\u0131m 2016. Eri\u015fim tarihi 21 Temmuz 2017. http:\/\/www.aljazeera.com\/news\/2016\/11\/iraq-parliament-passes-lawlegalising-shia-militias-161126133010696.html<\/a><\/p>\n [4]<\/a>Trends in World Military Expenditure, 2015, SIPRI Fact Sheet 2015, http:\/\/books.sipri.org\/files\/FS\/SIPRIFS1604.pdf<\/a><\/p>\n [5]<\/a>Trends in World Military Expenditure, 2015, SIPRI Fact Sheet 2015, http:\/\/books.sipri.org\/files\/FS\/SIPRIFS1604.pdf<\/a><\/p>\n [6]<\/a>\u201cRepairing Mosul\u2019s infrastructure will \u2018cost $1 billion\u2019.\u201d 06 Temmuz 2017. Eri\u015fim tarihi 21 Temmuz 2017. https:\/\/www.alaraby.co.uk\/english\/news\/2017\/7\/6\/repairing-mosulsinfrastructure-will-cost-1-billion<\/a><\/p>\n [7]<\/a>\u201cIran Criticizes Independence Vote In Iraq\u2019s Kurdistan Region.\u201d Radio Free Europe. 10 Haziran 2017. Eri\u015fim tarihi 21 Temmuz 2017. https:\/\/www.rferl.org\/a\/iran-criticizes-iraq-kurdishindependence-vote\/28539802.html<\/a><\/p>\n Ayn\u0131 zamanda bkz: \u201cUS concerned Kurdish referendum could \u2018distract\u2019 from IS fight.\u201d 09 Haziran 2017. Eri\u015fim tarihi 21 Temmuz 2017. https:\/\/www.alaraby.co.uk\/english\/news\/2017\/6\/9\/kurdish-referendumwould-distract-from-is-fight-us-warns<\/a>, Bkz: \u201cIraqi and foreign reactions to Kurdish referendum plan.\u201d Rudaw. 6 Haziran 2017. Eri\u015fim tarihi 21 Temmuz 2017. http:\/\/www.rudaw.net\/english\/middleeast\/turkey\/09062017<\/a><\/p>\n [8]<\/a>\u201cUncertainty reigns in Iraqi Kurdistan as president\u2019s mandate expires.\u201d Reuters. 20 A\u011fustos 2015. Eri\u015fim tarihi 21 Temmuz 2017. http:\/\/www.reuters.com\/article\/us-iraq-kurdspresidency-idUSKCN0QP1V620150820<\/a><\/p>\n [9]<\/a>\u201cPUK, Gorran: Preparations for referendum should be made after parliament sits.\u201d Rudaw. 23 Haziran 2017. Eri\u015fim tarihi 21 Temmuz 2017. http:\/\/www.rudaw.net\/mobile\/english\/kurdistan\/230620174<\/a><\/p>\n <\/p>\n<\/div> Irak \u015eam \u0130slam Devleti\u2019nin (I\u015e\u0130D) Musul\u2019daki yenilgisi Irak\u2019\u0131n yak\u0131n tarihinde \u00f6nemli bir d\u00f6n\u00fcm noktas\u0131n\u0131 temsil etmektedir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":13,"featured_media":9722,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","ngg_post_thumbnail":0},"categories":[361],"tags":[],"asf_pub_issue":[10307],"asf_pub_region":[10321],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9721"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/13"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=9721"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9721\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":24032,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9721\/revisions\/24032"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/9722"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=9721"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=9721"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=9721"},{"taxonomy":"asf_pub_issue","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/asf_pub_issue?post=9721"},{"taxonomy":"asf_pub_region","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/asf_pub_region?post=9721"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}