![\"\"](\"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/02\/Mesut-O\u0308zcan-150x150.png\" "\\"\\"")
Mesut Ozcan<\/a> <\/i> 24 Ocak 2018<\/span><\/h6><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div>Uzman G\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fc<\/a> \/ \/ B\u00f6lgesel Politika<\/a><\/h6><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div>\u00d6zet<\/span><\/strong>: 9 Aral\u0131k 2017\u2019de, Irak Ba\u015fbakan\u0131 \u0130badi Irak \u015eam \u0130slam Devleti\u2019ne (I\u015e\u0130D) kar\u015f\u0131 zaferini ilan etti ve \u00fclkenin tarihindeki karanl\u0131k bir b\u00f6l\u00fcm sona erdi. Pek \u00e7ok bak\u0131mdan bug\u00fcne de\u011fin ya\u015fad\u0131klar\u0131 aras\u0131nda en k\u00f6t\u00fcs\u00fcne tan\u0131k olan Irak halk\u0131n\u0131n 2018 se\u00e7imlerinden b\u00fcy\u00fck beklentileri var. Irakl\u0131 siyaset\u00e7iler de bunun fark\u0131ndalar ve yakla\u015fmakta olan se\u00e7imlere haz\u0131rlanmakta olduklar\u0131na dair i\u015faretler var. Nispi istikrar ve petrol fiyatlar\u0131nda istikrar beklentisi 2018 i\u00e7in olumlu veriler. I\u015e\u0130D\u2019e kar\u015f\u0131 m\u00fccadelenin yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131 y\u0131k\u0131m ve kurtar\u0131lan kent ve kasabalar\u0131n yeniden in\u015fas\u0131, Irak toplumunun farkl\u0131 bile\u015fenleri aras\u0131nda g\u00fcvenin te\u015fvik edilmesi, Irak H\u00fck\u00fcmeti ve di\u011fer siyasi fig\u00fcrlerin \u00f6n\u00fcndeki zorluklar\u0131n \u00fcstesinden gelinmesi ve genel itibariyle Irak\u2019\u0131n mevcut sorunlar\u0131n\u0131n \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcme kavu\u015fturulmas\u0131 uzun vadeli bir vizyon ile daha fazla enerji ve tabi para gerektiriyor. Bu noktada yaln\u0131zca Irakl\u0131 politikac\u0131lar\u0131n \u00e7abalar\u0131 yeterli olmayacak; uluslararas\u0131 ve b\u00f6lgesel akt\u00f6rlerin taahh\u00fctleri de bir zorunluluk. Ba\u015fbakan \u0130badi \u00fc\u00e7 y\u0131l \u00f6nce oldu\u011fundan daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir pozisyonda ancak 2018 May\u0131s\u2019\u0131nda yap\u0131lacak se\u00e7imler yakla\u015f\u0131rken pek \u00e7ok siyasi pazarl\u0131\u011fa tan\u0131k olabiliriz.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div>Giri\u015f<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\nIrak Ba\u015fbakan\u0131 Haydar el-\u0130badi 9 Aral\u0131k 2017 tarihinde, Irak-Suriye s\u0131n\u0131r\u0131n\u0131n tamamen Irak g\u00fcvenlik g\u00fc\u00e7lerinin kontrol\u00fcnde oldu\u011funu vurgulayarak, Irak \u015eam \u0130slam Devleti\u2019ne (I\u015e\u0130D) kar\u015f\u0131 zaferini ilan etti. Bu, bir zamanlar \u00fclkenin \u00fc\u00e7te birini kontrol\u00fcnde tutan ter\u00f6r \u00f6rg\u00fct\u00fcne kar\u015f\u0131 verilen \u00fc\u00e7 y\u0131ll\u0131k m\u00fccadelede bir d\u00f6n\u00fcm noktas\u0131yd\u0131[1]<\/a>. Neredeyse \u00fc\u00e7 bu\u00e7uk y\u0131l \u00f6nce, 2014 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n Haziran ay\u0131nda, I\u015e\u0130D Musul\u2019u istila edip ya\u011fmalad\u0131\u011f\u0131nda ve Ba\u011fdat ile Erbil\u2019i tehdit etti\u011finde Irak\u2019\u0131n gelece\u011fi olduk\u00e7a i\u00e7 karart\u0131c\u0131 bir vaziyetteydi. Devlet kurumlar\u0131 zay\u0131ft\u0131 ve i\u015flemiyordu. Irak toplumunun k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck bir k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131n seferberli\u011fi ve uluslararas\u0131 toplumun b\u00fcy\u00fck deste\u011fi ile I\u015e\u0130D askeri olarak bozguna u\u011frat\u0131ld\u0131. \u00dclkenin gelece\u011fine y\u00f6nelik beklentiler, art\u0131k \u00fc\u00e7 y\u0131l \u00f6nce oldu\u011fundan daha olumlu bir y\u00f6nde.<\/p>\nH\u00fck\u00fcmetin \u00f6n\u00fcnde h\u00e2l\u00e2 siyasi, ekonomik ve sosyal alanda \u00fcstesinden gelinmesi gereken ciddi zorluklar bulunuyor olsa da I\u015e\u0130D\u2019e kar\u015f\u0131 elde edilen ba\u015far\u0131 Ba\u015fbakan \u0130badi\u2019nin konumunu ve s\u00f6ylemini g\u00fc\u00e7lendirdi. 2018\u2019deki genel se\u00e7imler, yaln\u0131zca Ba\u015fbakan i\u00e7in de\u011fil ayn\u0131 zamanda Irak siyasetindeki di\u011fer siyasi fig\u00fcrler i\u00e7in de \u00f6nemli bir s\u0131nav olacak. I\u015e\u0130D\u2019in ortaya \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131 ve yenilgisi farkl\u0131 siyasi fig\u00fcrlerin itibar\u0131n\u0131 etkilemi\u015f oldu\u011fu i\u00e7in farkl\u0131 siyasi partilerin ve akt\u00f6rlerin se\u00e7im \u00f6ncesi ve se\u00e7imden sonra uygulayaca\u011f\u0131 politikalar, bu siyasi akt\u00f6rlerin siyasal olarak hayatta kalabilmeleri ve ayn\u0131 zamanda \u00fclkenin gelece\u011fi i\u00e7in kritik olacakt\u0131r. Bug\u00fcn farkl\u0131 etnik ve dini arka plandan her kesim, Irak siyasetinde yeni y\u00fcz ve fikirlere bir \u00f6zlem i\u00e7erisindedir. Bu isimler ve partiler i\u00e7inde bu taleplere en iyi kim yan\u0131t verebiliyorsa, o isim Irak siyaset sahnesinde kalacak, di\u011ferleri ise bu sahneden silinecektir.<\/p>\n
Siyasi ve G\u00fcvenlikle \u0130lgili Zorluklar<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\nI\u015e\u0130D\u2019in Irak g\u00fcvenlik g\u00fc\u00e7leri taraf\u0131ndan uluslararas\u0131 koalisyonun deste\u011fi ile yenilgiye u\u011frat\u0131lmas\u0131 g\u00fcvenlik g\u00fc\u00e7lerinin moralini art\u0131rm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Bu ba\u015far\u0131ya ra\u011fmen, g\u00fcvenlik g\u00fc\u00e7lerinin yamal\u0131 yap\u0131s\u0131 ve bu kuvvetler aras\u0131ndaki emir-komuta zinciri sorunlar\u0131n\u0131n ele al\u0131nmas\u0131 gereklidir. Bu ba\u011flamda en ivedi konular Ha\u015fdi \u015eabi\u2019nin (Halk Seferberlik G\u00fc\u00e7leri) gelece\u011fi ve Pe\u015fmerge\u2019nin stat\u00fcs\u00fcd\u00fcr. Ha\u015fdi \u015eabi Meclis karar\u0131 ile yasall\u0131k kazanm\u0131\u015f ve Ba\u015fbakan\u0131n yetkisine verilmi\u015ftir. Ancak bu g\u00fc\u00e7lerin i\u00e7inde bulunan Kata\u2019ib Hizbullah ve Asaib Ehl el-Hak gibi baz\u0131 gruplar \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n dini otoritelerine sad\u0131k olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fckleri i\u00e7in ve Ha\u015fdi \u015eabi i\u00e7indeki di\u011fer gruplar\u0131n liderlerinden baz\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n, Ebu Mehdi el-M\u00fchendis (Cemal Cafer \u0130brahimi olarak da bilinmektedir) gibi, ge\u00e7mi\u015fte Irak\u2019ta koalisyon g\u00fc\u00e7lerine y\u00f6nelik sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131 nedeniyle ABD taraf\u0131ndan ter\u00f6r \u00f6rg\u00fct\u00fc olarak tan\u0131nd\u0131klar\u0131ndan \u00f6t\u00fcr\u00fc belli sorunlar devam etmektedir[2]<\/a> [3]<\/a>. I\u015e\u0130D ile m\u00fccadele Ha\u015fdi \u015eabi\u2019nin konumunu pek \u00e7ok ki\u015finin g\u00f6z\u00fcnde me\u015frula\u015ft\u0131rm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r ve bu gruplar\u0131n Bedir Hareketi gibi baz\u0131 \u00fcyeleri I\u015e\u0130D\u2019e kar\u015f\u0131 m\u00fccadeledeki \u00e7abalar\u0131n\u0131n meyvelerini toplayabilmek i\u00e7in se\u00e7imleri beklemektedir. Beklentilerin aksine, Irak toplumunun baz\u0131 kesimleri silahl\u0131 gruplar\u0131n siyasi s\u00fcre\u00e7ten uzak tutulmas\u0131 ve normal ya\u015fant\u0131lar\u0131na geri d\u00f6nmesi gerekti\u011fine inanmaktad\u0131r. Ha\u015fdi \u015eabi gruplar\u0131n\u0131n baz\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n I\u015e\u0130D ortaya \u00e7\u0131kmadan \u00f6nce de milis asker olduklar\u0131n\u0131 unutmamal\u0131y\u0131z. Kata\u2019ib Hizbullah gibi gruplar Ha\u015fdi \u015eabi\u2019yi ama\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 gizlemek i\u00e7in kulland\u0131lar. Yeni paramiliter gruplar ortaya \u00e7\u0131kmadan \u00f6nce de var olan gruplar devlet yap\u0131s\u0131na paralel olarak hareket etmekte ve kom\u015fu \u00fclkelerle ili\u015fkilerini koruyarak \u00fclke s\u0131n\u0131rlar\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6tesinde de faaliyet g\u00f6stermektedir. H\u00fck\u00fcmetin kontrol\u00fc d\u0131\u015f\u0131ndaki silahl\u0131 gruplar\u0131n s\u00fcregelen varl\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00fclkenin g\u00fcvenli\u011fi ve istikrar\u0131na y\u00f6nelik en b\u00fcy\u00fck sorun olarak masada durmaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\nAyn\u0131 \u015fekilde Pe\u015fmerge\u2019nin stat\u00fcs\u00fc de ge\u00e7mi\u015fte b\u00fcy\u00fck bir sorun de\u011fildi ancak son zamanlarda Ba\u011fdat ve Erbil aras\u0131ndaki anla\u015fmazl\u0131klar nedeniyle, \u00f6zellikle de K\u00fcrdistan B\u00f6lgesel Y\u00f6netimi\u2019nde (KBY) yap\u0131lan ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131k referandumunun ard\u0131ndan, burada da belli sorunlar ortaya \u00e7\u0131km\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Irak Ba\u015fbakan\u0131 \u0130badi, I\u015e\u0130D\u2019e kar\u015f\u0131 kazan\u0131lan zafere ili\u015fkin olarak \u00e7e\u015fitli silahl\u0131 gruplar\u0131 tebrik etti\u011fi konu\u015fmas\u0131nda Pe\u015fmerge\u2019den bahsetmemi\u015f, bu da yapt\u0131klar\u0131 fedak\u00e2rl\u0131k dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda Irak K\u00fcrtleri aras\u0131nda kafa kar\u0131\u015f\u0131kl\u0131\u011f\u0131na sebep olmu\u015ftur[4]<\/a>. KBY\u2019deki Pe\u015fmerge Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131\u2019ndan gelen ele\u015ftirinin ard\u0131ndan Ba\u015fbakanl\u0131k a\u00e7\u0131klamay\u0131 de\u011fi\u015ftirmi\u015f ve Pe\u015fmerge\u2019nin rol\u00fcne de de\u011finmi\u015ftir. Pe\u015fmerge\u2019nin say\u0131s\u0131 ve merkezi h\u00fck\u00fcmet taraf\u0131ndan Pe\u015fmergelere \u00f6denecek maa\u015fa ili\u015fkin tart\u0131\u015fmalar, Ba\u011fdat ve Erbil aras\u0131ndaki en \u00f6nemli anla\u015fmazl\u0131klardan biridir.<\/p>\nYukar\u0131da bahsedilen sorunlara ek olarak I\u015e\u0130D\u2019in yeniden ortaya \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n engellenmesi ve yerel silahl\u0131 gruplar\u0131n vilayetlerin savunulmas\u0131nda kullan\u0131lmas\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 da S\u00fcnni Araplar\u0131n ya\u015fad\u0131\u011f\u0131 alanlar\u0131n g\u00fcvenli\u011fi ve ayn\u0131 zamanda sosyal uyum i\u00e7in \u00fczerinde durulmas\u0131 gereken konulard\u0131r. El Kaide ile I\u015e\u0130D\u2019in ortaya \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131 ve Irak\u2019\u0131n d\u00fczenli ordusunun S\u00fcnni Araplar\u0131n g\u00fcvenlik ihtiya\u00e7lar\u0131na cevap verememesi ger\u00e7e\u011fi aras\u0131nda yak\u0131n bir ili\u015fki vard\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Ba\u011fdat-Erbil \u0130li\u015fkileri<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\nBu g\u00fcvenlik sorunlar\u0131n\u0131n yan\u0131nda Irak\u2019\u0131n bug\u00fcn kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya oldu\u011fu temel sorun Eyl\u00fcl\u2019deki referandumun ard\u0131ndan Ba\u011fdat ve Erbil aras\u0131ndaki ili\u015fkilerin gelece\u011fidir. Irak Federal Anayasa Mahkemesi karar\u0131 ile referandum anayasaya ayk\u0131r\u0131 bulunmu\u015f ve sonu\u00e7lar\u0131 da ge\u00e7ersiz ilan edilmi\u015ftir[5]<\/a>. Ba\u011fdat bu kararla Erbil ile ili\u015fkilerinin gelece\u011fine y\u00f6nelik g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerde avantaj sa\u011flam\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Mevcut atmosferde Ba\u011fdat ve Erbil aras\u0131ndaki temel sorunlar; s\u0131n\u0131rlar, havaalanlar\u0131 ve b\u00fct\u00e7e konusunda olacakt\u0131r. Kerk\u00fck\u2019\u00fcn ve \u00e7evresindeki topraklar\u0131n Irak ordusunun kontrol\u00fcnde olmas\u0131yla \u0130badi H\u00fck\u00fcmeti avantaj elde etmi\u015f ve kom\u015fu devletlerden ve KBY\u2019den T\u00fcrkiye ve \u0130ran aras\u0131ndaki s\u0131n\u0131r kap\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n kontrol\u00fcn\u00fc Ba\u011fdat yetkililerine devretmelerini istemi\u015ftir. Kara s\u0131n\u0131r kap\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n kontrol\u00fcn\u00fcn d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda, Erbil ve S\u00fcleymaniye havaalanlar\u0131 da KBY i\u00e7in olduk\u00e7a \u00f6nemlidir. Bu iki havaalan\u0131, referandumdan sonra Ba\u011fdat\u2019\u0131n talebiyle uluslararas\u0131 u\u00e7u\u015flara kapat\u0131lm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r, ancak i\u00e7 hat u\u00e7u\u015flar\u0131 devam etmektedir. Kara s\u0131n\u0131rlar\u0131n\u0131n ve KBY\u2019de bulunan iki havaalan\u0131nda uluslararas\u0131 u\u00e7u\u015flar\u0131n \u00e7ift y\u00f6nl\u00fc olarak kontrol\u00fc sadece g\u00fcmr\u00fck gelirleri anlam\u0131nda de\u011fil, \u00f6zerklik bak\u0131\u015f a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan da \u00f6nemlidir. Ba\u011fdat ve Erbil aras\u0131nda s\u0131n\u0131r kap\u0131lar\u0131 ve havaalanlar\u0131yla ili\u015fkili bir di\u011fer tart\u0131\u015fma da s\u00f6zde \u2018tart\u0131\u015fmal\u0131 b\u00f6lgeler\u2019 ile ilgilidir. \u2018Tart\u0131\u015fmal\u0131 b\u00f6lgeler\u2019 konusu yak\u0131n gelecekte, se\u00e7im s\u00fcrecinde de bir tart\u0131\u015fma konusu olmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrecektir. Bu alanlar\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fck bir k\u0131sm\u0131 Ba\u011fdat\u2019\u0131n kontrol\u00fcnde olsa da bir yanda ordu ve Ha\u015fdi \u015eabi, di\u011fer yanda Pe\u015fmerge\u2019nin oldu\u011fu ve halen gerilimin y\u00fcksek oldu\u011fu baz\u0131 b\u00f6lgeler bulunmaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\nBa\u011fdat ve Erbil aras\u0131ndaki bir di\u011fer anla\u015fmazl\u0131k, son birka\u00e7 y\u0131ld\u0131r s\u00fcrt\u00fc\u015fmelere neden olan b\u00fct\u00e7e konusudur. Ba\u011fdat bu konuda son d\u00f6nemlerde, daha \u00f6nceki pay\u0131n Irak i\u00e7inde KBY n\u00fcfusu oran\u0131n\u0131 temsil etmedi\u011fini \u00f6ne s\u00fcrerek KBY\u2019ye ayr\u0131lm\u0131\u015f olan b\u00fct\u00e7eyi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmeyi hedeflemektedir. Bu mant\u0131\u011fa g\u00f6re, KBY n\u00fcfusu \u00fclke n\u00fcfusunun y\u00fczde 12,6\u2019s\u0131 civar\u0131ndad\u0131r ve b\u00fct\u00e7eye y\u00fczde 17\u2019nin de\u011fil bu oran\u0131n yans\u0131t\u0131lmas\u0131 gereklidir. Buna ek olarak, KBY taraf\u0131ndan al\u0131nan g\u00fcmr\u00fck vergilerinin Ba\u011fdat\u2019a teslim edilmesi gereklidir. Ba\u011fdat ayn\u0131 zamanda KBY\u2019nin ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z ekonomik faaliyetlerini kontrol etmek i\u00e7in, KBY taraf\u0131ndan yap\u0131lan petrol ihracat\u0131n\u0131 da s\u0131n\u0131rlamay\u0131 ama\u00e7lamaktad\u0131r. Irak h\u00fck\u00fcmeti bu taleplere kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k olarak, KBY\u2019deki \u00e7al\u0131\u015fanlara ili\u015fkin bilgi sa\u011flayaca\u011f\u0131ndan, b\u00f6lgedeki kamu personelinin \u00fccretlerini \u00f6demeye haz\u0131r oldu\u011funu a\u00e7\u0131klam\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Burada sorun, KBY yetkililerinin kendilerine sad\u0131k kesimleri \u00f6d\u00fcllendirebilmek i\u00e7in kamu personeli say\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 abartt\u0131klar\u0131na ili\u015fkin genel bir kabul olmas\u0131d\u0131r. Zira KBY\u2019deki ki\u015fi ba\u015f\u0131na d\u00fc\u015fen kamu personeli say\u0131s\u0131 Irak\u2019\u0131n di\u011fer k\u0131s\u0131mlar\u0131nda oldu\u011fundan \u00e7ok daha y\u00fcksektir[6]<\/a>.<\/p>\nYukar\u0131da bahsedilen anla\u015fmazl\u0131klara ek olarak I\u015e\u0130D\u2019den temizlenen alanlar\u0131n yeniden yap\u0131land\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 nedeniyle bu b\u00f6lgelere bir b\u00fct\u00e7e ayr\u0131lmas\u0131 gerekmektedir ve KBY\u2019nin b\u00fct\u00e7edeki pay\u0131n\u0131n bu nedenle azalt\u0131lmas\u0131 gerekir. I\u015e\u0130D\u2019e kar\u015f\u0131 sava\u015f, petrol \u00fcretimi ve ihracat\u0131 altyap\u0131s\u0131na zarar verdi\u011fi i\u00e7in, petrol \u00fcretiminin ve ihracat\u0131n\u0131n azalmas\u0131na neden olmu\u015ftur. Bu nedenle kuzey petrol yataklar\u0131ndan yap\u0131lan ihracat \u00f6nemli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde azalm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Bu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f KBY\u2019de ve \u00fclkenin di\u011fer k\u0131s\u0131mlar\u0131nda ekonomik ko\u015fullara zarar vermektedir. Referandumdan sonra Kerk\u00fck\u2019\u00fcn Ba\u011fdat taraf\u0131ndan kontrol edilmesi KBY\u2019nin ekonomik ko\u015fullar\u0131na inen bir di\u011fer darbedir. Ba\u011fdat ve Tahran, KBY\u2019den ge\u00e7en mevcut petrol boru hatt\u0131n\u0131 kullanmak yerine Kerk\u00fck petrol\u00fcn\u00fc \u0130ran petrol\u00fc ile takas etmeye y\u00f6nelik bir anla\u015fma imzalam\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Bu anla\u015fmaya g\u00f6re, Kerk\u00fck\u2019\u00fcn 30 bin ila 60 bin varil aras\u0131ndaki ham petrol\u00fc kamyonlarla \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n bir rafinerisinin bulundu\u011fu Kirman\u015fah\u2019a ta\u015f\u0131nacakt\u0131r. Kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131nda \u0130ran ayn\u0131 kalite ve miktarda petrol\u00fc Irak\u2019\u0131n g\u00fcney limanlar\u0131na teslim edecektir[7]<\/a>. Bu durum, KBY\u2019nin ve T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin ge\u00e7i\u015f harc\u0131ndan yararlanmas\u0131n\u0131 engelleyecektir.<\/p>\nPetrol ihracat\u0131ndaki bu gerilemeye ek olarak petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f de Irak h\u00fck\u00fcmetinin b\u00fct\u00e7esine zarar vermektedir. Irak h\u00fck\u00fcmeti 2018 y\u0131l\u0131nda, s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kaynaklarla m\u00fcltecilerin \u00fclkelerine geri d\u00f6nmeleri konusu ve kasaba ve \u015fehirlerin yeniden in\u015fas\u0131 sorunlar\u0131n\u0131n \u00fcstesinden gelmek zorundad\u0131r. Yine de g\u00fcney yataklar\u0131ndan petrol ihracat\u0131n\u0131n artmakta olmas\u0131 gibi baz\u0131 iyi haberler de vard\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Bu konular\u0131 tart\u0131\u015fmak i\u00e7in Ba\u011fdat ve Erbil aras\u0131nda diyalog gereklidir. Ba\u011fdat KBY\u2019den ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131k referandumunun sonu\u00e7lar\u0131ndan b\u00fct\u00fcn\u00fcyle feragat etti\u011fine dair bir a\u00e7\u0131klama yapmas\u0131n\u0131 talep etmekte, KBY ise Federal Mahkeme\u2019nin referandumun anayasaya uygun olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 karar\u0131na sayg\u0131 duydu\u011funu a\u00e7\u0131klamaktad\u0131r. Her iki taraf da isti\u015fare ihtiyac\u0131n\u0131n fark\u0131ndad\u0131r, ancak iki taraf aras\u0131ndaki \u00e7eki\u015fme \u015fu ana kadar devam etmektedir. Son g\u00fcnlerde her iki taraf\u0131n yetkilileri aras\u0131nda biri Ba\u011fdat\u2019ta di\u011feri Erbil\u2019de olmak \u00fczere iki toplant\u0131 ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmi\u015ftir. G\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerde s\u0131n\u0131r kap\u0131lar\u0131, hava alanlar\u0131, petrol ve ilgili konular ele al\u0131nm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r[8]<\/a>. Taraflar aras\u0131nda genel bir mutabakat s\u00f6z konusudur, ancak bu konuda mesafe kaydetmek i\u00e7in Ba\u015fbakan\u0131n onay\u0131 gerekmektedir.<\/p>\nEkonomik-Sosyal Zorluklar<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\nYakla\u015fmakta olan 2018 se\u00e7imleriyle birlikte Irak h\u00fck\u00fcmetinin kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya oldu\u011fu bir di\u011fer zorluk, ba\u015fta S\u00fcnni b\u00f6lgeler olmak \u00fczere, \u00fclke i\u00e7inde ve d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda yerlerinden edilmi\u015f ki\u015filerin evlerine d\u00f6nmelerini sa\u011flamak noktas\u0131ndad\u0131r. BM kurulu\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n verdi\u011fi resmi rakamlara g\u00f6re, Irak\u2019ta 3,2 milyon civar\u0131nda insan \u00fclke i\u00e7inde yerinden edilmi\u015f durumdad\u0131r. Ayn\u0131 verilere g\u00f6re Irak\u2019ta 11 milyon ki\u015fi de insani yard\u0131ma ihtiya\u00e7 duymaktad\u0131r[9]<\/a>. Irak h\u00fck\u00fcmeti y\u0131l sonuna kadar t\u00fcm yerinden edilenlerin geri d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015flerini sa\u011flayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klam\u0131\u015f olsa da I\u015e\u0130D\u2019den temizlenen b\u00f6lgelerdeki ko\u015fullar dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda bunun imk\u00e2ns\u0131z oldu\u011fu a\u00e7\u0131kt\u0131r. Altyap\u0131 zarar g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc i\u00e7in insanlar elektrik ve sudan yoksundur, bu da onlar\u0131n evlerine d\u00f6nmelerini engellemektedir[10]<\/a>.<\/p>\n2003 y\u0131l\u0131ndan sonra Irak\u2019\u0131n tan\u0131k oldu\u011fu \u015fiddet d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fcn tekrarlanmamas\u0131 i\u00e7in kasaba ve kentlerin yeniden in\u015fas\u0131 \u00fclkenin istikrar\u0131 i\u00e7in olduk\u00e7a \u00f6nem ta\u015f\u0131maktad\u0131r. \u00dclkedeki siyasi s\u00fcrecin itibar\u0131 i\u00e7in yerinden edilmi\u015f insanlar evlerine geri d\u00f6nebilmeli ve se\u00e7imlere kat\u0131lmal\u0131d\u0131r. Irak h\u00fck\u00fcmeti bu durumun fark\u0131nda olarak bu sorunu \u00e7\u00f6zmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmaktad\u0131r, ancak k\u0131sa vadede sonu\u00e7 alacak mali kaynak ve kurumsal kapasiteden yoksundur. H\u00e2lihaz\u0131rdaki \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmalar bu \u015fekilde devam ederse zarara u\u011fram\u0131\u015f altyap\u0131n\u0131n yeniden in\u015fas\u0131 en az 5 y\u0131l alacakt\u0131r. I\u015e\u0130D\u2019in harabeye \u00e7evirdi\u011fi kent ve kasabalar\u0131n yeniden in\u015fas\u0131ndaki herhangi bir gecikme nefreti ve tutucu bir yabanc\u0131la\u015fma duygusunu ate\u015fleyecek, bu da zamanla Irak\u2019\u0131n 2003 y\u0131l\u0131ndan bu yana tan\u0131k oldu\u011funa benzer senaryolar\u0131n yeniden n\u00fcksetmesine yol a\u00e7abilecektir. Pentagon\u2019un rakamlar\u0131na g\u00f6re ABD, Irak ve Suriye\u2019de I\u015e\u0130D\u2019e kar\u015f\u0131 m\u00fccadele i\u00e7in son \u00fc\u00e7 y\u0131lda 14,3 milyar dolar harcarken, onar\u0131m i\u00e7in sadece 1,4 milyar dolar harcam\u0131\u015ft\u0131r[11]<\/a>. ABD ve Bat\u0131l\u0131 \u00fclkelerde, Irak i\u00e7in gereken mali deste\u011fin sa\u011flanmas\u0131 konusunda bir ivedilik s\u00f6z konusu de\u011fildir.<\/p>\nIrak i\u00e7in umut edilen, \u00fclkeyi yeniden in\u015fa edebilmesi ve kom\u015fu devletlerle ili\u015fkilerini iyile\u015ftirmek yoluyla \u015fiddet sarmal\u0131n\u0131n geri d\u00f6nmesi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6nleyebilmesidir. \u0130kili ili\u015fkileri iyile\u015ftirmek i\u00e7in Kuveyt ve Suudi Arabistan gibi kom\u015fu Arap \u00fclkelere ziyaretlerde bulunulmakta ve bu \u00fclkelerden gelen ziyaret\u00e7iler de a\u011f\u0131rlanmaktad\u0131r. Irak\u2019\u0131n bak\u0131\u015f a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131yla, kom\u015fularla ili\u015fkilerin iyile\u015fmesi \u00fclkedeki ekonomik ko\u015fullar\u0131n ve g\u00fcvenli\u011fin iyile\u015ftirilmesi i\u00e7in olduk\u00e7a \u00f6nemlidir, \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc I\u015e\u0130D\u2019den kurtar\u0131lan alanlarda g\u00fcvenli\u011fin sa\u011flanmas\u0131 ve ekonomik ko\u015fullar\u0131n iyile\u015ftirilmesi i\u00e7in kom\u015fu \u00fclkelerle i\u015f birli\u011fi i\u00e7inde olmak elzemdir.<\/p>\n
\u0130htiya\u00e7 duyulan fonu sa\u011flamak ve yeniden yap\u0131land\u0131rma ihtiyac\u0131 hakk\u0131nda fark\u0131ndal\u0131k olu\u015fturmak \u00fczere Kuveyt\u2019te bir uluslararas\u0131 konferans\u0131n toplanmas\u0131 planlanmaktad\u0131r. Bu konferans D\u00fcnya Bankas\u0131 deste\u011fi ile I\u015e\u0130D\u2019den temizlenen alanlar\u0131n yeniden yap\u0131land\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131na fon sa\u011flamak i\u00e7in 12 ve 14 \u015eubat 2018 tarihleri aras\u0131nda Kuveyt\u2019te ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirilecektir[12]<\/a>. A\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olarak S\u00fcnni Arap b\u00f6lgelerdeki yeniden yap\u0131land\u0131rma konusu, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki y\u0131l yap\u0131lacak se\u00e7imler \u00f6ncesi siyasi s\u00fcre\u00e7 i\u00e7in olduk\u00e7a \u00f6nemlidir. Kom\u015fu Arap \u00fclkeler Irak\u2019ta sadece I\u015e\u0130D benzeri gruplar\u0131n ortaya \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6nlemede de\u011fil, ayn\u0131 zamanda \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n Irak \u00fczerindeki do\u011frudan etkisinin s\u0131n\u0131rland\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131nda da bir rol oynayabilirler. Bunu sa\u011flamak i\u00e7in Irak siyasal sistemindeki S\u00fcnni gruplar siyasi alanda yap\u0131c\u0131 bir rol oynamak zorundad\u0131r. Mevcut ko\u015fullar alt\u0131nda S\u00fcnni gruplar, siyasi bir y\u00f6nlendirmeye ve ayn\u0131 zamanda topluluklar\u0131n\u0131n ya\u015fam ko\u015fullar\u0131n\u0131 iyile\u015ftirmeye y\u00f6nelik beklentiye ihtiya\u00e7 duymaktad\u0131rlar. Kom\u015fu \u00fclkelerden gelecek destekler, \u00fclkenin istikrar\u0131 i\u00e7in de \u00f6nemli bir rol oynayabilir.<\/p>\n2018 Se\u00e7imleri \u00d6ncesinde Siyaset<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n2018\u2019in ilk g\u00fcnlerinde, farkl\u0131 siyasi gruplar i\u00e7inde yak\u0131n bir zaman sonra siyaset sahnesinde \u00f6nemli de\u011fi\u015fiklikler olaca\u011f\u0131 mutabakat\u0131na dayanan haz\u0131rl\u0131klar g\u00f6rmekteyiz. Irak son se\u00e7imlerin ard\u0131ndan bilhassa g\u00fcvenlik ve ekonomik sorunlar nedeniyle olduk\u00e7a zor y\u0131llardan ge\u00e7mi\u015ftir. Eski Ba\u015fbakan Maliki\u2019nin tutumu \u00fclkenin S\u00fcnni Arap ve K\u00fcrt n\u00fcfusuyla ciddi sorunlar ortaya \u00e7\u0131karm\u0131\u015ft\u0131; hatta Maliki baz\u0131 \u015eii Arap \u00e7evrelerinde bile \u00e7ok pop\u00fcler de\u011fildi. Musul\u2019un ve \u00fclkenin \u00fc\u00e7te birinin I\u015e\u0130D\u2019in kontrol\u00fcne girmesiyle birlikte \u00fclkenin g\u00fcvenlik sorunlar\u0131 belirgin bir hale gelmi\u015ftir. Bu sorunlarla bir araya gelen petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f de petrole ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131 ekonomiyi ciddi bir bi\u00e7imde vurmu\u015ftur. I\u015e\u0130D ile m\u00fccadele Ba\u011fdat ve Erbil aras\u0131ndaki kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131kl\u0131 cephele\u015fmenin en az\u0131ndan bir s\u00fcreli\u011fine, 2017 Eyl\u00fcl\u2019\u00fcne kadar ertelenmesine imk\u00e2n vermi\u015ftir.<\/p>\n
2018 ufku, ge\u00e7mi\u015fte tan\u0131k olunan k\u00e2busu and\u0131ran y\u0131llarla k\u0131yasland\u0131\u011f\u0131nda daha parlak g\u00f6r\u00fcnmektedir; I\u015e\u0130D\u2019e kar\u015f\u0131 elde edilen zafer, petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n 60 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerindeki g\u00f6reli istikrar\u0131, Irak\u2019\u0131n farkl\u0131 siyasi akt\u00f6rlerinin ayr\u0131l\u0131k\u00e7\u0131 tutucu retori\u011fin tehlikeleri hakk\u0131nda \u00f6\u011frendikleri, ABD\u2019nin taraf\u0131n\u0131 tutma konusunda Irak\u2019a daha fazla adanm\u0131\u015fl\u0131k bunun ba\u015fl\u0131ca g\u00f6stergeleridir. 2011\u2019de oldu\u011fu gibi erkenden geri \u00e7ekilme hatas\u0131n\u0131 tekrarlamamak i\u00e7in, 2018 se\u00e7imleri sonras\u0131nda olumlu bir senaryonun ortaya \u00e7\u0131kaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6rebiliriz. Irakl\u0131lar bu uzun k\u00e2bus y\u0131llar\u0131ndan olduk\u00e7a yorulmu\u015f ve farkl\u0131 etnik ve mezhep gruplar\u0131n\u0131n i\u00e7indeki siyasi fig\u00fcrlerin b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00e7o\u011funlu\u011funa olan g\u00fcvenini kaybetmi\u015ftir. \u00dclke i\u00e7in kapsaml\u0131 planlarla birlikte yeni y\u00fczlere \u00f6zlem duyuldu\u011fu a\u00e7\u0131kt\u0131r. Farkl\u0131 siyasi gruplar aras\u0131nda yakla\u015fan se\u00e7imlere y\u00f6nelik ittifaklar vard\u0131r. \u0130badi\u2019nin \u00f6nderli\u011findeki Zafer Koalisyonu ve Hadi el Amiri\u2019nin ba\u015f\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7ekti\u011fi Fetih Koalisyonu aras\u0131nda ittifak haberleri pek \u00e7ok ki\u015fi taraf\u0131ndan \u015fa\u015f\u0131rt\u0131c\u0131 bulunmu\u015ftur, \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc olduk\u00e7a farkl\u0131 se\u00e7im tabanlar\u0131na hitap etmektedirler[13]<\/a>. Bu noktada hem Erbil\u2019de hem de Irak\u2019ta farkl\u0131 gruplar aras\u0131nda ittifak kurma giri\u015fimleri s\u00fcrmektedir.<\/p>\nAncak se\u00e7imlerin sorunsuz ge\u00e7mesinin \u00f6n\u00fcnde h\u00e2l\u00e2 birka\u00e7 engel bulunmaktad\u0131r. \u00dclke i\u00e7inde yerinden edilmi\u015f insanlar\u0131n evlerine d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fc, harap olmu\u015f altyap\u0131n\u0131n yeniden in\u015fas\u0131, g\u00fcvenlik birimlerinde reform ve t\u00fcm masraflar\u0131n geliri olarak kullan\u0131lmak \u00fczere petrol ihracat\u0131n\u0131n artmas\u0131 zaruridir. Irak\u2019\u0131n g\u00fcvenli\u011fi ve istikrar\u0131 hem \u00fclkedeki, hem de b\u00f6lgedeki halk\u0131n \u00e7o\u011funlu\u011funun ortak arzusudur. Ancak istikrara eri\u015fme bak\u0131m\u0131ndan farkl\u0131 \u00f6ncelikler s\u00f6z konusudur. Irak h\u00fck\u00fcmetinin ve Irakl\u0131 siyaset\u00e7ilerin \u00f6n\u00fcndeki g\u00f6rev \u00fclke i\u00e7inde ve b\u00f6lgede farkl\u0131 akt\u00f6rler aras\u0131nda do\u011fru dengeyi bulmakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Referanslar<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n[1]<\/a> Coker, Margaret, ve Hassan, Falih. \u201cIraq Prime Minister Declares Victory Over IS.\u201d New York Times, 3 Aral\u0131k 2017. https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2017\/12\/09\/world\/middleeast\/iraq-IShaider-al-abadi.html<\/a><\/p>\n[2]<\/a> Kurdistani, Ali. \u201cThe militia leader who defies the US and proud of loyalty to Iran.\u201d Rudaw, 7 Haziran 2016. http:\/\/www.rudaw.net\/english\/middleeast\/iraq\/07062016<\/a><\/p>\n[3]<\/a> \u201cHashd defend commander labelled terrorist by U.S.\u201d Rudaw, 27 Ekim 2017. http:\/\/www.rudaw.net\/NewsDetails.aspx?pageid=338164<\/a><\/p>\n[4]<\/a> Mostafa, Nehal. \u201cPeshmerga slams Abadi for not mentioning troops\u2019 role in anti-IS war.\u201d Iraqi News, 10 Aral\u0131k 2017. https:\/\/www.iraqinews.com\/iraq-war\/peshmerga-slams-abadi-notmentioning-troops-role-anti-war\/<\/a><\/p>\n[5]<\/a> Rasheed, Ahmed, and Jalabi, Raya. \u201cIraqi court rules Kurdish independence vote unconstitutional.\u201d Reuters, 20 Kas\u0131m 2017. https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/article\/usmideast-crIS-iraq-kurds\/iraqi-court-ruleskurdish-independence-vote-unconstitutionalidUSKBN1DK0Q6<\/a><\/p>\n[6]<\/a> Hasan al-Qaraweeis, Harith. \u201cBudget Politics and Baghdad-Kurdish Relations.\u201d The Atlantic Council, 16 Kas\u0131m 2017. http:\/\/www.atlanticcouncil.org\/blogs\/menasource\/budgetpolitics-and-baghdad-kurdish-relations<\/a><\/p>\n[7]<\/a> \u201cIraq and Iran sign Kirkuk oil swap deal.\u201d Reuters, 9 Aral\u0131k 2017. https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/article\/us-iran-iraq-oil\/iraq-and-iran-signkirkuk-oil-swap-deal-idUSKBN1E30JE<\/a><\/p>\n[8]<\/a> \u201cErbil, Baghdad to hammer out agreement that will end flight ban, statement.\u201d Rudaw, 13 Ocak 2018 http:\/\/www.rudaw.net\/english\/kurdistan\/13012018<\/a><\/p>\n[9]<\/a> Global Humanitarian overview 2016, UNOCHA. https:\/\/www.unocha.org\/sites\/unocha\/files\/GHO-2016.pdf<\/a><\/p>\n[10]<\/a> Mostafa, Mohamed \u201cIraqi government: nearly 22.000 refugees repatriated in Mosul in 4 days.\u201d Iraqi News, 30 Ekim 2017. https:\/\/www.iraqinews.com\/features\/iraqi-governmentnearly-22-000-refugees-repatriated-mosul-4days\/<\/a><\/p>\n[11]<\/a> Sly, Liz, and Ameen Schwan, Aaso. \u201cIS is near defeat in Iraq. Now comes the hard part.\u201d the Washington Post, 13 Eyl\u00fcl 2017. https:\/\/ www.washingtonpost.com\/world\/middle_east\/IS-is-near-defeat-in-iraq-now-comes-thehard-part\/2017\/09\/13\/68b1f742-8d9e-11e79c53-6a169beb0953_story.html?utm_term=.da44b4a5d5d4<\/a><\/p>\n[12]<\/a> Iraq reconstruction conference in Kuwait planned for early 2018.” Reuters, 22 Eyl\u00fcl 2017. https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/article\/usmideast-crIS-syria-usa\/iraq-reconstructionconference-in-kuwait-planned-for-early-2018idUSKCN1BX2CY?il=0<\/a><\/p>\n[13]<\/a> Alabbasi, Mamoon. \u201cLast-minute deals sought in Iraq election alliances.\u201d 14 Ocak 2018, The Arab Weekly. http:\/\/www.thearabweekly.com\/Opinion\/10031\/Last-minute-deals-sought-inIraq-election-alliances<\/a><\/p>\n <\/p>\n<\/div>
<\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"9 Aral\u0131k 2017\u2019de, Irak Ba\u015fbakan\u0131 \u0130badi Irak \u015eam \u0130slam Devleti\u2019ne (I\u015e\u0130D) kar\u015f\u0131 zaferini ilan etti ve \u00fclkenin tarihindeki karanl\u0131k bir b\u00f6l\u00fcm sona erdi.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":13,"featured_media":9729,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","ngg_post_thumbnail":0},"categories":[361],"tags":[9816],"asf_pub_issue":[10319],"asf_pub_region":[10321],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9728"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/13"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=9728"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9728\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":23950,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9728\/revisions\/23950"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/9729"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=9728"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=9728"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=9728"},{"taxonomy":"asf_pub_issue","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/asf_pub_issue?post=9728"},{"taxonomy":"asf_pub_region","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/asf_pub_region?post=9728"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}
Uzman G\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fc<\/a> \/ \/ B\u00f6lgesel Politika<\/a><\/h6><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div>\u00d6zet<\/span><\/strong>: 9 Aral\u0131k 2017\u2019de, Irak Ba\u015fbakan\u0131 \u0130badi Irak \u015eam \u0130slam Devleti\u2019ne (I\u015e\u0130D) kar\u015f\u0131 zaferini ilan etti ve \u00fclkenin tarihindeki karanl\u0131k bir b\u00f6l\u00fcm sona erdi. Pek \u00e7ok bak\u0131mdan bug\u00fcne de\u011fin ya\u015fad\u0131klar\u0131 aras\u0131nda en k\u00f6t\u00fcs\u00fcne tan\u0131k olan Irak halk\u0131n\u0131n 2018 se\u00e7imlerinden b\u00fcy\u00fck beklentileri var. Irakl\u0131 siyaset\u00e7iler de bunun fark\u0131ndalar ve yakla\u015fmakta olan se\u00e7imlere haz\u0131rlanmakta olduklar\u0131na dair i\u015faretler var. Nispi istikrar ve petrol fiyatlar\u0131nda istikrar beklentisi 2018 i\u00e7in olumlu veriler. I\u015e\u0130D\u2019e kar\u015f\u0131 m\u00fccadelenin yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131 y\u0131k\u0131m ve kurtar\u0131lan kent ve kasabalar\u0131n yeniden in\u015fas\u0131, Irak toplumunun farkl\u0131 bile\u015fenleri aras\u0131nda g\u00fcvenin te\u015fvik edilmesi, Irak H\u00fck\u00fcmeti ve di\u011fer siyasi fig\u00fcrlerin \u00f6n\u00fcndeki zorluklar\u0131n \u00fcstesinden gelinmesi ve genel itibariyle Irak\u2019\u0131n mevcut sorunlar\u0131n\u0131n \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcme kavu\u015fturulmas\u0131 uzun vadeli bir vizyon ile daha fazla enerji ve tabi para gerektiriyor. Bu noktada yaln\u0131zca Irakl\u0131 politikac\u0131lar\u0131n \u00e7abalar\u0131 yeterli olmayacak; uluslararas\u0131 ve b\u00f6lgesel akt\u00f6rlerin taahh\u00fctleri de bir zorunluluk. Ba\u015fbakan \u0130badi \u00fc\u00e7 y\u0131l \u00f6nce oldu\u011fundan daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir pozisyonda ancak 2018 May\u0131s\u2019\u0131nda yap\u0131lacak se\u00e7imler yakla\u015f\u0131rken pek \u00e7ok siyasi pazarl\u0131\u011fa tan\u0131k olabiliriz.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div>Giri\u015f<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\nIrak Ba\u015fbakan\u0131 Haydar el-\u0130badi 9 Aral\u0131k 2017 tarihinde, Irak-Suriye s\u0131n\u0131r\u0131n\u0131n tamamen Irak g\u00fcvenlik g\u00fc\u00e7lerinin kontrol\u00fcnde oldu\u011funu vurgulayarak, Irak \u015eam \u0130slam Devleti\u2019ne (I\u015e\u0130D) kar\u015f\u0131 zaferini ilan etti. Bu, bir zamanlar \u00fclkenin \u00fc\u00e7te birini kontrol\u00fcnde tutan ter\u00f6r \u00f6rg\u00fct\u00fcne kar\u015f\u0131 verilen \u00fc\u00e7 y\u0131ll\u0131k m\u00fccadelede bir d\u00f6n\u00fcm noktas\u0131yd\u0131[1]<\/a>. Neredeyse \u00fc\u00e7 bu\u00e7uk y\u0131l \u00f6nce, 2014 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n Haziran ay\u0131nda, I\u015e\u0130D Musul\u2019u istila edip ya\u011fmalad\u0131\u011f\u0131nda ve Ba\u011fdat ile Erbil\u2019i tehdit etti\u011finde Irak\u2019\u0131n gelece\u011fi olduk\u00e7a i\u00e7 karart\u0131c\u0131 bir vaziyetteydi. Devlet kurumlar\u0131 zay\u0131ft\u0131 ve i\u015flemiyordu. Irak toplumunun k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck bir k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131n seferberli\u011fi ve uluslararas\u0131 toplumun b\u00fcy\u00fck deste\u011fi ile I\u015e\u0130D askeri olarak bozguna u\u011frat\u0131ld\u0131. \u00dclkenin gelece\u011fine y\u00f6nelik beklentiler, art\u0131k \u00fc\u00e7 y\u0131l \u00f6nce oldu\u011fundan daha olumlu bir y\u00f6nde.<\/p>\nH\u00fck\u00fcmetin \u00f6n\u00fcnde h\u00e2l\u00e2 siyasi, ekonomik ve sosyal alanda \u00fcstesinden gelinmesi gereken ciddi zorluklar bulunuyor olsa da I\u015e\u0130D\u2019e kar\u015f\u0131 elde edilen ba\u015far\u0131 Ba\u015fbakan \u0130badi\u2019nin konumunu ve s\u00f6ylemini g\u00fc\u00e7lendirdi. 2018\u2019deki genel se\u00e7imler, yaln\u0131zca Ba\u015fbakan i\u00e7in de\u011fil ayn\u0131 zamanda Irak siyasetindeki di\u011fer siyasi fig\u00fcrler i\u00e7in de \u00f6nemli bir s\u0131nav olacak. I\u015e\u0130D\u2019in ortaya \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131 ve yenilgisi farkl\u0131 siyasi fig\u00fcrlerin itibar\u0131n\u0131 etkilemi\u015f oldu\u011fu i\u00e7in farkl\u0131 siyasi partilerin ve akt\u00f6rlerin se\u00e7im \u00f6ncesi ve se\u00e7imden sonra uygulayaca\u011f\u0131 politikalar, bu siyasi akt\u00f6rlerin siyasal olarak hayatta kalabilmeleri ve ayn\u0131 zamanda \u00fclkenin gelece\u011fi i\u00e7in kritik olacakt\u0131r. Bug\u00fcn farkl\u0131 etnik ve dini arka plandan her kesim, Irak siyasetinde yeni y\u00fcz ve fikirlere bir \u00f6zlem i\u00e7erisindedir. Bu isimler ve partiler i\u00e7inde bu taleplere en iyi kim yan\u0131t verebiliyorsa, o isim Irak siyaset sahnesinde kalacak, di\u011ferleri ise bu sahneden silinecektir.<\/p>\n
Siyasi ve G\u00fcvenlikle \u0130lgili Zorluklar<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\nI\u015e\u0130D\u2019in Irak g\u00fcvenlik g\u00fc\u00e7leri taraf\u0131ndan uluslararas\u0131 koalisyonun deste\u011fi ile yenilgiye u\u011frat\u0131lmas\u0131 g\u00fcvenlik g\u00fc\u00e7lerinin moralini art\u0131rm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Bu ba\u015far\u0131ya ra\u011fmen, g\u00fcvenlik g\u00fc\u00e7lerinin yamal\u0131 yap\u0131s\u0131 ve bu kuvvetler aras\u0131ndaki emir-komuta zinciri sorunlar\u0131n\u0131n ele al\u0131nmas\u0131 gereklidir. Bu ba\u011flamda en ivedi konular Ha\u015fdi \u015eabi\u2019nin (Halk Seferberlik G\u00fc\u00e7leri) gelece\u011fi ve Pe\u015fmerge\u2019nin stat\u00fcs\u00fcd\u00fcr. Ha\u015fdi \u015eabi Meclis karar\u0131 ile yasall\u0131k kazanm\u0131\u015f ve Ba\u015fbakan\u0131n yetkisine verilmi\u015ftir. Ancak bu g\u00fc\u00e7lerin i\u00e7inde bulunan Kata\u2019ib Hizbullah ve Asaib Ehl el-Hak gibi baz\u0131 gruplar \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n dini otoritelerine sad\u0131k olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fckleri i\u00e7in ve Ha\u015fdi \u015eabi i\u00e7indeki di\u011fer gruplar\u0131n liderlerinden baz\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n, Ebu Mehdi el-M\u00fchendis (Cemal Cafer \u0130brahimi olarak da bilinmektedir) gibi, ge\u00e7mi\u015fte Irak\u2019ta koalisyon g\u00fc\u00e7lerine y\u00f6nelik sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131 nedeniyle ABD taraf\u0131ndan ter\u00f6r \u00f6rg\u00fct\u00fc olarak tan\u0131nd\u0131klar\u0131ndan \u00f6t\u00fcr\u00fc belli sorunlar devam etmektedir[2]<\/a> [3]<\/a>. I\u015e\u0130D ile m\u00fccadele Ha\u015fdi \u015eabi\u2019nin konumunu pek \u00e7ok ki\u015finin g\u00f6z\u00fcnde me\u015frula\u015ft\u0131rm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r ve bu gruplar\u0131n Bedir Hareketi gibi baz\u0131 \u00fcyeleri I\u015e\u0130D\u2019e kar\u015f\u0131 m\u00fccadeledeki \u00e7abalar\u0131n\u0131n meyvelerini toplayabilmek i\u00e7in se\u00e7imleri beklemektedir. Beklentilerin aksine, Irak toplumunun baz\u0131 kesimleri silahl\u0131 gruplar\u0131n siyasi s\u00fcre\u00e7ten uzak tutulmas\u0131 ve normal ya\u015fant\u0131lar\u0131na geri d\u00f6nmesi gerekti\u011fine inanmaktad\u0131r. Ha\u015fdi \u015eabi gruplar\u0131n\u0131n baz\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n I\u015e\u0130D ortaya \u00e7\u0131kmadan \u00f6nce de milis asker olduklar\u0131n\u0131 unutmamal\u0131y\u0131z. Kata\u2019ib Hizbullah gibi gruplar Ha\u015fdi \u015eabi\u2019yi ama\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 gizlemek i\u00e7in kulland\u0131lar. Yeni paramiliter gruplar ortaya \u00e7\u0131kmadan \u00f6nce de var olan gruplar devlet yap\u0131s\u0131na paralel olarak hareket etmekte ve kom\u015fu \u00fclkelerle ili\u015fkilerini koruyarak \u00fclke s\u0131n\u0131rlar\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6tesinde de faaliyet g\u00f6stermektedir. H\u00fck\u00fcmetin kontrol\u00fc d\u0131\u015f\u0131ndaki silahl\u0131 gruplar\u0131n s\u00fcregelen varl\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00fclkenin g\u00fcvenli\u011fi ve istikrar\u0131na y\u00f6nelik en b\u00fcy\u00fck sorun olarak masada durmaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\nAyn\u0131 \u015fekilde Pe\u015fmerge\u2019nin stat\u00fcs\u00fc de ge\u00e7mi\u015fte b\u00fcy\u00fck bir sorun de\u011fildi ancak son zamanlarda Ba\u011fdat ve Erbil aras\u0131ndaki anla\u015fmazl\u0131klar nedeniyle, \u00f6zellikle de K\u00fcrdistan B\u00f6lgesel Y\u00f6netimi\u2019nde (KBY) yap\u0131lan ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131k referandumunun ard\u0131ndan, burada da belli sorunlar ortaya \u00e7\u0131km\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Irak Ba\u015fbakan\u0131 \u0130badi, I\u015e\u0130D\u2019e kar\u015f\u0131 kazan\u0131lan zafere ili\u015fkin olarak \u00e7e\u015fitli silahl\u0131 gruplar\u0131 tebrik etti\u011fi konu\u015fmas\u0131nda Pe\u015fmerge\u2019den bahsetmemi\u015f, bu da yapt\u0131klar\u0131 fedak\u00e2rl\u0131k dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda Irak K\u00fcrtleri aras\u0131nda kafa kar\u0131\u015f\u0131kl\u0131\u011f\u0131na sebep olmu\u015ftur[4]<\/a>. KBY\u2019deki Pe\u015fmerge Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131\u2019ndan gelen ele\u015ftirinin ard\u0131ndan Ba\u015fbakanl\u0131k a\u00e7\u0131klamay\u0131 de\u011fi\u015ftirmi\u015f ve Pe\u015fmerge\u2019nin rol\u00fcne de de\u011finmi\u015ftir. Pe\u015fmerge\u2019nin say\u0131s\u0131 ve merkezi h\u00fck\u00fcmet taraf\u0131ndan Pe\u015fmergelere \u00f6denecek maa\u015fa ili\u015fkin tart\u0131\u015fmalar, Ba\u011fdat ve Erbil aras\u0131ndaki en \u00f6nemli anla\u015fmazl\u0131klardan biridir.<\/p>\nYukar\u0131da bahsedilen sorunlara ek olarak I\u015e\u0130D\u2019in yeniden ortaya \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n engellenmesi ve yerel silahl\u0131 gruplar\u0131n vilayetlerin savunulmas\u0131nda kullan\u0131lmas\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 da S\u00fcnni Araplar\u0131n ya\u015fad\u0131\u011f\u0131 alanlar\u0131n g\u00fcvenli\u011fi ve ayn\u0131 zamanda sosyal uyum i\u00e7in \u00fczerinde durulmas\u0131 gereken konulard\u0131r. El Kaide ile I\u015e\u0130D\u2019in ortaya \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131 ve Irak\u2019\u0131n d\u00fczenli ordusunun S\u00fcnni Araplar\u0131n g\u00fcvenlik ihtiya\u00e7lar\u0131na cevap verememesi ger\u00e7e\u011fi aras\u0131nda yak\u0131n bir ili\u015fki vard\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Ba\u011fdat-Erbil \u0130li\u015fkileri<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\nBu g\u00fcvenlik sorunlar\u0131n\u0131n yan\u0131nda Irak\u2019\u0131n bug\u00fcn kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya oldu\u011fu temel sorun Eyl\u00fcl\u2019deki referandumun ard\u0131ndan Ba\u011fdat ve Erbil aras\u0131ndaki ili\u015fkilerin gelece\u011fidir. Irak Federal Anayasa Mahkemesi karar\u0131 ile referandum anayasaya ayk\u0131r\u0131 bulunmu\u015f ve sonu\u00e7lar\u0131 da ge\u00e7ersiz ilan edilmi\u015ftir[5]<\/a>. Ba\u011fdat bu kararla Erbil ile ili\u015fkilerinin gelece\u011fine y\u00f6nelik g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerde avantaj sa\u011flam\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Mevcut atmosferde Ba\u011fdat ve Erbil aras\u0131ndaki temel sorunlar; s\u0131n\u0131rlar, havaalanlar\u0131 ve b\u00fct\u00e7e konusunda olacakt\u0131r. Kerk\u00fck\u2019\u00fcn ve \u00e7evresindeki topraklar\u0131n Irak ordusunun kontrol\u00fcnde olmas\u0131yla \u0130badi H\u00fck\u00fcmeti avantaj elde etmi\u015f ve kom\u015fu devletlerden ve KBY\u2019den T\u00fcrkiye ve \u0130ran aras\u0131ndaki s\u0131n\u0131r kap\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n kontrol\u00fcn\u00fc Ba\u011fdat yetkililerine devretmelerini istemi\u015ftir. Kara s\u0131n\u0131r kap\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n kontrol\u00fcn\u00fcn d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda, Erbil ve S\u00fcleymaniye havaalanlar\u0131 da KBY i\u00e7in olduk\u00e7a \u00f6nemlidir. Bu iki havaalan\u0131, referandumdan sonra Ba\u011fdat\u2019\u0131n talebiyle uluslararas\u0131 u\u00e7u\u015flara kapat\u0131lm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r, ancak i\u00e7 hat u\u00e7u\u015flar\u0131 devam etmektedir. Kara s\u0131n\u0131rlar\u0131n\u0131n ve KBY\u2019de bulunan iki havaalan\u0131nda uluslararas\u0131 u\u00e7u\u015flar\u0131n \u00e7ift y\u00f6nl\u00fc olarak kontrol\u00fc sadece g\u00fcmr\u00fck gelirleri anlam\u0131nda de\u011fil, \u00f6zerklik bak\u0131\u015f a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan da \u00f6nemlidir. Ba\u011fdat ve Erbil aras\u0131nda s\u0131n\u0131r kap\u0131lar\u0131 ve havaalanlar\u0131yla ili\u015fkili bir di\u011fer tart\u0131\u015fma da s\u00f6zde \u2018tart\u0131\u015fmal\u0131 b\u00f6lgeler\u2019 ile ilgilidir. \u2018Tart\u0131\u015fmal\u0131 b\u00f6lgeler\u2019 konusu yak\u0131n gelecekte, se\u00e7im s\u00fcrecinde de bir tart\u0131\u015fma konusu olmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrecektir. Bu alanlar\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fck bir k\u0131sm\u0131 Ba\u011fdat\u2019\u0131n kontrol\u00fcnde olsa da bir yanda ordu ve Ha\u015fdi \u015eabi, di\u011fer yanda Pe\u015fmerge\u2019nin oldu\u011fu ve halen gerilimin y\u00fcksek oldu\u011fu baz\u0131 b\u00f6lgeler bulunmaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\nBa\u011fdat ve Erbil aras\u0131ndaki bir di\u011fer anla\u015fmazl\u0131k, son birka\u00e7 y\u0131ld\u0131r s\u00fcrt\u00fc\u015fmelere neden olan b\u00fct\u00e7e konusudur. Ba\u011fdat bu konuda son d\u00f6nemlerde, daha \u00f6nceki pay\u0131n Irak i\u00e7inde KBY n\u00fcfusu oran\u0131n\u0131 temsil etmedi\u011fini \u00f6ne s\u00fcrerek KBY\u2019ye ayr\u0131lm\u0131\u015f olan b\u00fct\u00e7eyi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmeyi hedeflemektedir. Bu mant\u0131\u011fa g\u00f6re, KBY n\u00fcfusu \u00fclke n\u00fcfusunun y\u00fczde 12,6\u2019s\u0131 civar\u0131ndad\u0131r ve b\u00fct\u00e7eye y\u00fczde 17\u2019nin de\u011fil bu oran\u0131n yans\u0131t\u0131lmas\u0131 gereklidir. Buna ek olarak, KBY taraf\u0131ndan al\u0131nan g\u00fcmr\u00fck vergilerinin Ba\u011fdat\u2019a teslim edilmesi gereklidir. Ba\u011fdat ayn\u0131 zamanda KBY\u2019nin ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z ekonomik faaliyetlerini kontrol etmek i\u00e7in, KBY taraf\u0131ndan yap\u0131lan petrol ihracat\u0131n\u0131 da s\u0131n\u0131rlamay\u0131 ama\u00e7lamaktad\u0131r. Irak h\u00fck\u00fcmeti bu taleplere kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k olarak, KBY\u2019deki \u00e7al\u0131\u015fanlara ili\u015fkin bilgi sa\u011flayaca\u011f\u0131ndan, b\u00f6lgedeki kamu personelinin \u00fccretlerini \u00f6demeye haz\u0131r oldu\u011funu a\u00e7\u0131klam\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Burada sorun, KBY yetkililerinin kendilerine sad\u0131k kesimleri \u00f6d\u00fcllendirebilmek i\u00e7in kamu personeli say\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 abartt\u0131klar\u0131na ili\u015fkin genel bir kabul olmas\u0131d\u0131r. Zira KBY\u2019deki ki\u015fi ba\u015f\u0131na d\u00fc\u015fen kamu personeli say\u0131s\u0131 Irak\u2019\u0131n di\u011fer k\u0131s\u0131mlar\u0131nda oldu\u011fundan \u00e7ok daha y\u00fcksektir[6]<\/a>.<\/p>\nYukar\u0131da bahsedilen anla\u015fmazl\u0131klara ek olarak I\u015e\u0130D\u2019den temizlenen alanlar\u0131n yeniden yap\u0131land\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 nedeniyle bu b\u00f6lgelere bir b\u00fct\u00e7e ayr\u0131lmas\u0131 gerekmektedir ve KBY\u2019nin b\u00fct\u00e7edeki pay\u0131n\u0131n bu nedenle azalt\u0131lmas\u0131 gerekir. I\u015e\u0130D\u2019e kar\u015f\u0131 sava\u015f, petrol \u00fcretimi ve ihracat\u0131 altyap\u0131s\u0131na zarar verdi\u011fi i\u00e7in, petrol \u00fcretiminin ve ihracat\u0131n\u0131n azalmas\u0131na neden olmu\u015ftur. Bu nedenle kuzey petrol yataklar\u0131ndan yap\u0131lan ihracat \u00f6nemli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde azalm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Bu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f KBY\u2019de ve \u00fclkenin di\u011fer k\u0131s\u0131mlar\u0131nda ekonomik ko\u015fullara zarar vermektedir. Referandumdan sonra Kerk\u00fck\u2019\u00fcn Ba\u011fdat taraf\u0131ndan kontrol edilmesi KBY\u2019nin ekonomik ko\u015fullar\u0131na inen bir di\u011fer darbedir. Ba\u011fdat ve Tahran, KBY\u2019den ge\u00e7en mevcut petrol boru hatt\u0131n\u0131 kullanmak yerine Kerk\u00fck petrol\u00fcn\u00fc \u0130ran petrol\u00fc ile takas etmeye y\u00f6nelik bir anla\u015fma imzalam\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Bu anla\u015fmaya g\u00f6re, Kerk\u00fck\u2019\u00fcn 30 bin ila 60 bin varil aras\u0131ndaki ham petrol\u00fc kamyonlarla \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n bir rafinerisinin bulundu\u011fu Kirman\u015fah\u2019a ta\u015f\u0131nacakt\u0131r. Kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131nda \u0130ran ayn\u0131 kalite ve miktarda petrol\u00fc Irak\u2019\u0131n g\u00fcney limanlar\u0131na teslim edecektir[7]<\/a>. Bu durum, KBY\u2019nin ve T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin ge\u00e7i\u015f harc\u0131ndan yararlanmas\u0131n\u0131 engelleyecektir.<\/p>\nPetrol ihracat\u0131ndaki bu gerilemeye ek olarak petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f de Irak h\u00fck\u00fcmetinin b\u00fct\u00e7esine zarar vermektedir. Irak h\u00fck\u00fcmeti 2018 y\u0131l\u0131nda, s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kaynaklarla m\u00fcltecilerin \u00fclkelerine geri d\u00f6nmeleri konusu ve kasaba ve \u015fehirlerin yeniden in\u015fas\u0131 sorunlar\u0131n\u0131n \u00fcstesinden gelmek zorundad\u0131r. Yine de g\u00fcney yataklar\u0131ndan petrol ihracat\u0131n\u0131n artmakta olmas\u0131 gibi baz\u0131 iyi haberler de vard\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Bu konular\u0131 tart\u0131\u015fmak i\u00e7in Ba\u011fdat ve Erbil aras\u0131nda diyalog gereklidir. Ba\u011fdat KBY\u2019den ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131k referandumunun sonu\u00e7lar\u0131ndan b\u00fct\u00fcn\u00fcyle feragat etti\u011fine dair bir a\u00e7\u0131klama yapmas\u0131n\u0131 talep etmekte, KBY ise Federal Mahkeme\u2019nin referandumun anayasaya uygun olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 karar\u0131na sayg\u0131 duydu\u011funu a\u00e7\u0131klamaktad\u0131r. Her iki taraf da isti\u015fare ihtiyac\u0131n\u0131n fark\u0131ndad\u0131r, ancak iki taraf aras\u0131ndaki \u00e7eki\u015fme \u015fu ana kadar devam etmektedir. Son g\u00fcnlerde her iki taraf\u0131n yetkilileri aras\u0131nda biri Ba\u011fdat\u2019ta di\u011feri Erbil\u2019de olmak \u00fczere iki toplant\u0131 ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmi\u015ftir. G\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerde s\u0131n\u0131r kap\u0131lar\u0131, hava alanlar\u0131, petrol ve ilgili konular ele al\u0131nm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r[8]<\/a>. Taraflar aras\u0131nda genel bir mutabakat s\u00f6z konusudur, ancak bu konuda mesafe kaydetmek i\u00e7in Ba\u015fbakan\u0131n onay\u0131 gerekmektedir.<\/p>\nEkonomik-Sosyal Zorluklar<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\nYakla\u015fmakta olan 2018 se\u00e7imleriyle birlikte Irak h\u00fck\u00fcmetinin kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya oldu\u011fu bir di\u011fer zorluk, ba\u015fta S\u00fcnni b\u00f6lgeler olmak \u00fczere, \u00fclke i\u00e7inde ve d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda yerlerinden edilmi\u015f ki\u015filerin evlerine d\u00f6nmelerini sa\u011flamak noktas\u0131ndad\u0131r. BM kurulu\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n verdi\u011fi resmi rakamlara g\u00f6re, Irak\u2019ta 3,2 milyon civar\u0131nda insan \u00fclke i\u00e7inde yerinden edilmi\u015f durumdad\u0131r. Ayn\u0131 verilere g\u00f6re Irak\u2019ta 11 milyon ki\u015fi de insani yard\u0131ma ihtiya\u00e7 duymaktad\u0131r[9]<\/a>. Irak h\u00fck\u00fcmeti y\u0131l sonuna kadar t\u00fcm yerinden edilenlerin geri d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015flerini sa\u011flayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klam\u0131\u015f olsa da I\u015e\u0130D\u2019den temizlenen b\u00f6lgelerdeki ko\u015fullar dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda bunun imk\u00e2ns\u0131z oldu\u011fu a\u00e7\u0131kt\u0131r. Altyap\u0131 zarar g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc i\u00e7in insanlar elektrik ve sudan yoksundur, bu da onlar\u0131n evlerine d\u00f6nmelerini engellemektedir[10]<\/a>.<\/p>\n2003 y\u0131l\u0131ndan sonra Irak\u2019\u0131n tan\u0131k oldu\u011fu \u015fiddet d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fcn tekrarlanmamas\u0131 i\u00e7in kasaba ve kentlerin yeniden in\u015fas\u0131 \u00fclkenin istikrar\u0131 i\u00e7in olduk\u00e7a \u00f6nem ta\u015f\u0131maktad\u0131r. \u00dclkedeki siyasi s\u00fcrecin itibar\u0131 i\u00e7in yerinden edilmi\u015f insanlar evlerine geri d\u00f6nebilmeli ve se\u00e7imlere kat\u0131lmal\u0131d\u0131r. Irak h\u00fck\u00fcmeti bu durumun fark\u0131nda olarak bu sorunu \u00e7\u00f6zmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmaktad\u0131r, ancak k\u0131sa vadede sonu\u00e7 alacak mali kaynak ve kurumsal kapasiteden yoksundur. H\u00e2lihaz\u0131rdaki \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmalar bu \u015fekilde devam ederse zarara u\u011fram\u0131\u015f altyap\u0131n\u0131n yeniden in\u015fas\u0131 en az 5 y\u0131l alacakt\u0131r. I\u015e\u0130D\u2019in harabeye \u00e7evirdi\u011fi kent ve kasabalar\u0131n yeniden in\u015fas\u0131ndaki herhangi bir gecikme nefreti ve tutucu bir yabanc\u0131la\u015fma duygusunu ate\u015fleyecek, bu da zamanla Irak\u2019\u0131n 2003 y\u0131l\u0131ndan bu yana tan\u0131k oldu\u011funa benzer senaryolar\u0131n yeniden n\u00fcksetmesine yol a\u00e7abilecektir. Pentagon\u2019un rakamlar\u0131na g\u00f6re ABD, Irak ve Suriye\u2019de I\u015e\u0130D\u2019e kar\u015f\u0131 m\u00fccadele i\u00e7in son \u00fc\u00e7 y\u0131lda 14,3 milyar dolar harcarken, onar\u0131m i\u00e7in sadece 1,4 milyar dolar harcam\u0131\u015ft\u0131r[11]<\/a>. ABD ve Bat\u0131l\u0131 \u00fclkelerde, Irak i\u00e7in gereken mali deste\u011fin sa\u011flanmas\u0131 konusunda bir ivedilik s\u00f6z konusu de\u011fildir.<\/p>\nIrak i\u00e7in umut edilen, \u00fclkeyi yeniden in\u015fa edebilmesi ve kom\u015fu devletlerle ili\u015fkilerini iyile\u015ftirmek yoluyla \u015fiddet sarmal\u0131n\u0131n geri d\u00f6nmesi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6nleyebilmesidir. \u0130kili ili\u015fkileri iyile\u015ftirmek i\u00e7in Kuveyt ve Suudi Arabistan gibi kom\u015fu Arap \u00fclkelere ziyaretlerde bulunulmakta ve bu \u00fclkelerden gelen ziyaret\u00e7iler de a\u011f\u0131rlanmaktad\u0131r. Irak\u2019\u0131n bak\u0131\u015f a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131yla, kom\u015fularla ili\u015fkilerin iyile\u015fmesi \u00fclkedeki ekonomik ko\u015fullar\u0131n ve g\u00fcvenli\u011fin iyile\u015ftirilmesi i\u00e7in olduk\u00e7a \u00f6nemlidir, \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc I\u015e\u0130D\u2019den kurtar\u0131lan alanlarda g\u00fcvenli\u011fin sa\u011flanmas\u0131 ve ekonomik ko\u015fullar\u0131n iyile\u015ftirilmesi i\u00e7in kom\u015fu \u00fclkelerle i\u015f birli\u011fi i\u00e7inde olmak elzemdir.<\/p>\n
\u0130htiya\u00e7 duyulan fonu sa\u011flamak ve yeniden yap\u0131land\u0131rma ihtiyac\u0131 hakk\u0131nda fark\u0131ndal\u0131k olu\u015fturmak \u00fczere Kuveyt\u2019te bir uluslararas\u0131 konferans\u0131n toplanmas\u0131 planlanmaktad\u0131r. Bu konferans D\u00fcnya Bankas\u0131 deste\u011fi ile I\u015e\u0130D\u2019den temizlenen alanlar\u0131n yeniden yap\u0131land\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131na fon sa\u011flamak i\u00e7in 12 ve 14 \u015eubat 2018 tarihleri aras\u0131nda Kuveyt\u2019te ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirilecektir[12]<\/a>. A\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olarak S\u00fcnni Arap b\u00f6lgelerdeki yeniden yap\u0131land\u0131rma konusu, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki y\u0131l yap\u0131lacak se\u00e7imler \u00f6ncesi siyasi s\u00fcre\u00e7 i\u00e7in olduk\u00e7a \u00f6nemlidir. Kom\u015fu Arap \u00fclkeler Irak\u2019ta sadece I\u015e\u0130D benzeri gruplar\u0131n ortaya \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6nlemede de\u011fil, ayn\u0131 zamanda \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n Irak \u00fczerindeki do\u011frudan etkisinin s\u0131n\u0131rland\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131nda da bir rol oynayabilirler. Bunu sa\u011flamak i\u00e7in Irak siyasal sistemindeki S\u00fcnni gruplar siyasi alanda yap\u0131c\u0131 bir rol oynamak zorundad\u0131r. Mevcut ko\u015fullar alt\u0131nda S\u00fcnni gruplar, siyasi bir y\u00f6nlendirmeye ve ayn\u0131 zamanda topluluklar\u0131n\u0131n ya\u015fam ko\u015fullar\u0131n\u0131 iyile\u015ftirmeye y\u00f6nelik beklentiye ihtiya\u00e7 duymaktad\u0131rlar. Kom\u015fu \u00fclkelerden gelecek destekler, \u00fclkenin istikrar\u0131 i\u00e7in de \u00f6nemli bir rol oynayabilir.<\/p>\n2018 Se\u00e7imleri \u00d6ncesinde Siyaset<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n2018\u2019in ilk g\u00fcnlerinde, farkl\u0131 siyasi gruplar i\u00e7inde yak\u0131n bir zaman sonra siyaset sahnesinde \u00f6nemli de\u011fi\u015fiklikler olaca\u011f\u0131 mutabakat\u0131na dayanan haz\u0131rl\u0131klar g\u00f6rmekteyiz. Irak son se\u00e7imlerin ard\u0131ndan bilhassa g\u00fcvenlik ve ekonomik sorunlar nedeniyle olduk\u00e7a zor y\u0131llardan ge\u00e7mi\u015ftir. Eski Ba\u015fbakan Maliki\u2019nin tutumu \u00fclkenin S\u00fcnni Arap ve K\u00fcrt n\u00fcfusuyla ciddi sorunlar ortaya \u00e7\u0131karm\u0131\u015ft\u0131; hatta Maliki baz\u0131 \u015eii Arap \u00e7evrelerinde bile \u00e7ok pop\u00fcler de\u011fildi. Musul\u2019un ve \u00fclkenin \u00fc\u00e7te birinin I\u015e\u0130D\u2019in kontrol\u00fcne girmesiyle birlikte \u00fclkenin g\u00fcvenlik sorunlar\u0131 belirgin bir hale gelmi\u015ftir. Bu sorunlarla bir araya gelen petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f de petrole ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131 ekonomiyi ciddi bir bi\u00e7imde vurmu\u015ftur. I\u015e\u0130D ile m\u00fccadele Ba\u011fdat ve Erbil aras\u0131ndaki kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131kl\u0131 cephele\u015fmenin en az\u0131ndan bir s\u00fcreli\u011fine, 2017 Eyl\u00fcl\u2019\u00fcne kadar ertelenmesine imk\u00e2n vermi\u015ftir.<\/p>\n
2018 ufku, ge\u00e7mi\u015fte tan\u0131k olunan k\u00e2busu and\u0131ran y\u0131llarla k\u0131yasland\u0131\u011f\u0131nda daha parlak g\u00f6r\u00fcnmektedir; I\u015e\u0130D\u2019e kar\u015f\u0131 elde edilen zafer, petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n 60 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerindeki g\u00f6reli istikrar\u0131, Irak\u2019\u0131n farkl\u0131 siyasi akt\u00f6rlerinin ayr\u0131l\u0131k\u00e7\u0131 tutucu retori\u011fin tehlikeleri hakk\u0131nda \u00f6\u011frendikleri, ABD\u2019nin taraf\u0131n\u0131 tutma konusunda Irak\u2019a daha fazla adanm\u0131\u015fl\u0131k bunun ba\u015fl\u0131ca g\u00f6stergeleridir. 2011\u2019de oldu\u011fu gibi erkenden geri \u00e7ekilme hatas\u0131n\u0131 tekrarlamamak i\u00e7in, 2018 se\u00e7imleri sonras\u0131nda olumlu bir senaryonun ortaya \u00e7\u0131kaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6rebiliriz. Irakl\u0131lar bu uzun k\u00e2bus y\u0131llar\u0131ndan olduk\u00e7a yorulmu\u015f ve farkl\u0131 etnik ve mezhep gruplar\u0131n\u0131n i\u00e7indeki siyasi fig\u00fcrlerin b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00e7o\u011funlu\u011funa olan g\u00fcvenini kaybetmi\u015ftir. \u00dclke i\u00e7in kapsaml\u0131 planlarla birlikte yeni y\u00fczlere \u00f6zlem duyuldu\u011fu a\u00e7\u0131kt\u0131r. Farkl\u0131 siyasi gruplar aras\u0131nda yakla\u015fan se\u00e7imlere y\u00f6nelik ittifaklar vard\u0131r. \u0130badi\u2019nin \u00f6nderli\u011findeki Zafer Koalisyonu ve Hadi el Amiri\u2019nin ba\u015f\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7ekti\u011fi Fetih Koalisyonu aras\u0131nda ittifak haberleri pek \u00e7ok ki\u015fi taraf\u0131ndan \u015fa\u015f\u0131rt\u0131c\u0131 bulunmu\u015ftur, \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc olduk\u00e7a farkl\u0131 se\u00e7im tabanlar\u0131na hitap etmektedirler[13]<\/a>. Bu noktada hem Erbil\u2019de hem de Irak\u2019ta farkl\u0131 gruplar aras\u0131nda ittifak kurma giri\u015fimleri s\u00fcrmektedir.<\/p>\nAncak se\u00e7imlerin sorunsuz ge\u00e7mesinin \u00f6n\u00fcnde h\u00e2l\u00e2 birka\u00e7 engel bulunmaktad\u0131r. \u00dclke i\u00e7inde yerinden edilmi\u015f insanlar\u0131n evlerine d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fc, harap olmu\u015f altyap\u0131n\u0131n yeniden in\u015fas\u0131, g\u00fcvenlik birimlerinde reform ve t\u00fcm masraflar\u0131n geliri olarak kullan\u0131lmak \u00fczere petrol ihracat\u0131n\u0131n artmas\u0131 zaruridir. Irak\u2019\u0131n g\u00fcvenli\u011fi ve istikrar\u0131 hem \u00fclkedeki, hem de b\u00f6lgedeki halk\u0131n \u00e7o\u011funlu\u011funun ortak arzusudur. Ancak istikrara eri\u015fme bak\u0131m\u0131ndan farkl\u0131 \u00f6ncelikler s\u00f6z konusudur. Irak h\u00fck\u00fcmetinin ve Irakl\u0131 siyaset\u00e7ilerin \u00f6n\u00fcndeki g\u00f6rev \u00fclke i\u00e7inde ve b\u00f6lgede farkl\u0131 akt\u00f6rler aras\u0131nda do\u011fru dengeyi bulmakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Referanslar<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n[1]<\/a> Coker, Margaret, ve Hassan, Falih. \u201cIraq Prime Minister Declares Victory Over IS.\u201d New York Times, 3 Aral\u0131k 2017. https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2017\/12\/09\/world\/middleeast\/iraq-IShaider-al-abadi.html<\/a><\/p>\n[2]<\/a> Kurdistani, Ali. \u201cThe militia leader who defies the US and proud of loyalty to Iran.\u201d Rudaw, 7 Haziran 2016. http:\/\/www.rudaw.net\/english\/middleeast\/iraq\/07062016<\/a><\/p>\n[3]<\/a> \u201cHashd defend commander labelled terrorist by U.S.\u201d Rudaw, 27 Ekim 2017. http:\/\/www.rudaw.net\/NewsDetails.aspx?pageid=338164<\/a><\/p>\n[4]<\/a> Mostafa, Nehal. \u201cPeshmerga slams Abadi for not mentioning troops\u2019 role in anti-IS war.\u201d Iraqi News, 10 Aral\u0131k 2017. https:\/\/www.iraqinews.com\/iraq-war\/peshmerga-slams-abadi-notmentioning-troops-role-anti-war\/<\/a><\/p>\n[5]<\/a> Rasheed, Ahmed, and Jalabi, Raya. \u201cIraqi court rules Kurdish independence vote unconstitutional.\u201d Reuters, 20 Kas\u0131m 2017. https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/article\/usmideast-crIS-iraq-kurds\/iraqi-court-ruleskurdish-independence-vote-unconstitutionalidUSKBN1DK0Q6<\/a><\/p>\n[6]<\/a> Hasan al-Qaraweeis, Harith. \u201cBudget Politics and Baghdad-Kurdish Relations.\u201d The Atlantic Council, 16 Kas\u0131m 2017. http:\/\/www.atlanticcouncil.org\/blogs\/menasource\/budgetpolitics-and-baghdad-kurdish-relations<\/a><\/p>\n[7]<\/a> \u201cIraq and Iran sign Kirkuk oil swap deal.\u201d Reuters, 9 Aral\u0131k 2017. https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/article\/us-iran-iraq-oil\/iraq-and-iran-signkirkuk-oil-swap-deal-idUSKBN1E30JE<\/a><\/p>\n[8]<\/a> \u201cErbil, Baghdad to hammer out agreement that will end flight ban, statement.\u201d Rudaw, 13 Ocak 2018 http:\/\/www.rudaw.net\/english\/kurdistan\/13012018<\/a><\/p>\n[9]<\/a> Global Humanitarian overview 2016, UNOCHA. https:\/\/www.unocha.org\/sites\/unocha\/files\/GHO-2016.pdf<\/a><\/p>\n[10]<\/a> Mostafa, Mohamed \u201cIraqi government: nearly 22.000 refugees repatriated in Mosul in 4 days.\u201d Iraqi News, 30 Ekim 2017. https:\/\/www.iraqinews.com\/features\/iraqi-governmentnearly-22-000-refugees-repatriated-mosul-4days\/<\/a><\/p>\n[11]<\/a> Sly, Liz, and Ameen Schwan, Aaso. \u201cIS is near defeat in Iraq. Now comes the hard part.\u201d the Washington Post, 13 Eyl\u00fcl 2017. https:\/\/ www.washingtonpost.com\/world\/middle_east\/IS-is-near-defeat-in-iraq-now-comes-thehard-part\/2017\/09\/13\/68b1f742-8d9e-11e79c53-6a169beb0953_story.html?utm_term=.da44b4a5d5d4<\/a><\/p>\n[12]<\/a> Iraq reconstruction conference in Kuwait planned for early 2018.” Reuters, 22 Eyl\u00fcl 2017. https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/article\/usmideast-crIS-syria-usa\/iraq-reconstructionconference-in-kuwait-planned-for-early-2018idUSKCN1BX2CY?il=0<\/a><\/p>\n[13]<\/a> Alabbasi, Mamoon. \u201cLast-minute deals sought in Iraq election alliances.\u201d 14 Ocak 2018, The Arab Weekly. http:\/\/www.thearabweekly.com\/Opinion\/10031\/Last-minute-deals-sought-inIraq-election-alliances<\/a><\/p>\n <\/p>\n<\/div>
<\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"9 Aral\u0131k 2017\u2019de, Irak Ba\u015fbakan\u0131 \u0130badi Irak \u015eam \u0130slam Devleti\u2019ne (I\u015e\u0130D) kar\u015f\u0131 zaferini ilan etti ve \u00fclkenin tarihindeki karanl\u0131k bir b\u00f6l\u00fcm sona erdi.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":13,"featured_media":9729,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","ngg_post_thumbnail":0},"categories":[361],"tags":[9816],"asf_pub_issue":[10319],"asf_pub_region":[10321],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9728"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/13"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=9728"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9728\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":23950,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9728\/revisions\/23950"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/9729"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=9728"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=9728"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=9728"},{"taxonomy":"asf_pub_issue","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/asf_pub_issue?post=9728"},{"taxonomy":"asf_pub_region","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/asf_pub_region?post=9728"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}
\u00d6zet<\/span><\/strong>: 9 Aral\u0131k 2017\u2019de, Irak Ba\u015fbakan\u0131 \u0130badi Irak \u015eam \u0130slam Devleti\u2019ne (I\u015e\u0130D) kar\u015f\u0131 zaferini ilan etti ve \u00fclkenin tarihindeki karanl\u0131k bir b\u00f6l\u00fcm sona erdi. Pek \u00e7ok bak\u0131mdan bug\u00fcne de\u011fin ya\u015fad\u0131klar\u0131 aras\u0131nda en k\u00f6t\u00fcs\u00fcne tan\u0131k olan Irak halk\u0131n\u0131n 2018 se\u00e7imlerinden b\u00fcy\u00fck beklentileri var. Irakl\u0131 siyaset\u00e7iler de bunun fark\u0131ndalar ve yakla\u015fmakta olan se\u00e7imlere haz\u0131rlanmakta olduklar\u0131na dair i\u015faretler var. Nispi istikrar ve petrol fiyatlar\u0131nda istikrar beklentisi 2018 i\u00e7in olumlu veriler. I\u015e\u0130D\u2019e kar\u015f\u0131 m\u00fccadelenin yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131 y\u0131k\u0131m ve kurtar\u0131lan kent ve kasabalar\u0131n yeniden in\u015fas\u0131, Irak toplumunun farkl\u0131 bile\u015fenleri aras\u0131nda g\u00fcvenin te\u015fvik edilmesi, Irak H\u00fck\u00fcmeti ve di\u011fer siyasi fig\u00fcrlerin \u00f6n\u00fcndeki zorluklar\u0131n \u00fcstesinden gelinmesi ve genel itibariyle Irak\u2019\u0131n mevcut sorunlar\u0131n\u0131n \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcme kavu\u015fturulmas\u0131 uzun vadeli bir vizyon ile daha fazla enerji ve tabi para gerektiriyor. Bu noktada yaln\u0131zca Irakl\u0131 politikac\u0131lar\u0131n \u00e7abalar\u0131 yeterli olmayacak; uluslararas\u0131 ve b\u00f6lgesel akt\u00f6rlerin taahh\u00fctleri de bir zorunluluk. Ba\u015fbakan \u0130badi \u00fc\u00e7 y\u0131l \u00f6nce oldu\u011fundan daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir pozisyonda ancak 2018 May\u0131s\u2019\u0131nda yap\u0131lacak se\u00e7imler yakla\u015f\u0131rken pek \u00e7ok siyasi pazarl\u0131\u011fa tan\u0131k olabiliriz.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div> Giri\u015f<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n Irak Ba\u015fbakan\u0131 Haydar el-\u0130badi 9 Aral\u0131k 2017 tarihinde, Irak-Suriye s\u0131n\u0131r\u0131n\u0131n tamamen Irak g\u00fcvenlik g\u00fc\u00e7lerinin kontrol\u00fcnde oldu\u011funu vurgulayarak, Irak \u015eam \u0130slam Devleti\u2019ne (I\u015e\u0130D) kar\u015f\u0131 zaferini ilan etti. Bu, bir zamanlar \u00fclkenin \u00fc\u00e7te birini kontrol\u00fcnde tutan ter\u00f6r \u00f6rg\u00fct\u00fcne kar\u015f\u0131 verilen \u00fc\u00e7 y\u0131ll\u0131k m\u00fccadelede bir d\u00f6n\u00fcm noktas\u0131yd\u0131[1]<\/a>. Neredeyse \u00fc\u00e7 bu\u00e7uk y\u0131l \u00f6nce, 2014 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n Haziran ay\u0131nda, I\u015e\u0130D Musul\u2019u istila edip ya\u011fmalad\u0131\u011f\u0131nda ve Ba\u011fdat ile Erbil\u2019i tehdit etti\u011finde Irak\u2019\u0131n gelece\u011fi olduk\u00e7a i\u00e7 karart\u0131c\u0131 bir vaziyetteydi. Devlet kurumlar\u0131 zay\u0131ft\u0131 ve i\u015flemiyordu. Irak toplumunun k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck bir k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131n seferberli\u011fi ve uluslararas\u0131 toplumun b\u00fcy\u00fck deste\u011fi ile I\u015e\u0130D askeri olarak bozguna u\u011frat\u0131ld\u0131. \u00dclkenin gelece\u011fine y\u00f6nelik beklentiler, art\u0131k \u00fc\u00e7 y\u0131l \u00f6nce oldu\u011fundan daha olumlu bir y\u00f6nde.<\/p>\n H\u00fck\u00fcmetin \u00f6n\u00fcnde h\u00e2l\u00e2 siyasi, ekonomik ve sosyal alanda \u00fcstesinden gelinmesi gereken ciddi zorluklar bulunuyor olsa da I\u015e\u0130D\u2019e kar\u015f\u0131 elde edilen ba\u015far\u0131 Ba\u015fbakan \u0130badi\u2019nin konumunu ve s\u00f6ylemini g\u00fc\u00e7lendirdi. 2018\u2019deki genel se\u00e7imler, yaln\u0131zca Ba\u015fbakan i\u00e7in de\u011fil ayn\u0131 zamanda Irak siyasetindeki di\u011fer siyasi fig\u00fcrler i\u00e7in de \u00f6nemli bir s\u0131nav olacak. I\u015e\u0130D\u2019in ortaya \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131 ve yenilgisi farkl\u0131 siyasi fig\u00fcrlerin itibar\u0131n\u0131 etkilemi\u015f oldu\u011fu i\u00e7in farkl\u0131 siyasi partilerin ve akt\u00f6rlerin se\u00e7im \u00f6ncesi ve se\u00e7imden sonra uygulayaca\u011f\u0131 politikalar, bu siyasi akt\u00f6rlerin siyasal olarak hayatta kalabilmeleri ve ayn\u0131 zamanda \u00fclkenin gelece\u011fi i\u00e7in kritik olacakt\u0131r. Bug\u00fcn farkl\u0131 etnik ve dini arka plandan her kesim, Irak siyasetinde yeni y\u00fcz ve fikirlere bir \u00f6zlem i\u00e7erisindedir. Bu isimler ve partiler i\u00e7inde bu taleplere en iyi kim yan\u0131t verebiliyorsa, o isim Irak siyaset sahnesinde kalacak, di\u011ferleri ise bu sahneden silinecektir.<\/p>\n Siyasi ve G\u00fcvenlikle \u0130lgili Zorluklar<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n I\u015e\u0130D\u2019in Irak g\u00fcvenlik g\u00fc\u00e7leri taraf\u0131ndan uluslararas\u0131 koalisyonun deste\u011fi ile yenilgiye u\u011frat\u0131lmas\u0131 g\u00fcvenlik g\u00fc\u00e7lerinin moralini art\u0131rm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Bu ba\u015far\u0131ya ra\u011fmen, g\u00fcvenlik g\u00fc\u00e7lerinin yamal\u0131 yap\u0131s\u0131 ve bu kuvvetler aras\u0131ndaki emir-komuta zinciri sorunlar\u0131n\u0131n ele al\u0131nmas\u0131 gereklidir. Bu ba\u011flamda en ivedi konular Ha\u015fdi \u015eabi\u2019nin (Halk Seferberlik G\u00fc\u00e7leri) gelece\u011fi ve Pe\u015fmerge\u2019nin stat\u00fcs\u00fcd\u00fcr. Ha\u015fdi \u015eabi Meclis karar\u0131 ile yasall\u0131k kazanm\u0131\u015f ve Ba\u015fbakan\u0131n yetkisine verilmi\u015ftir. Ancak bu g\u00fc\u00e7lerin i\u00e7inde bulunan Kata\u2019ib Hizbullah ve Asaib Ehl el-Hak gibi baz\u0131 gruplar \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n dini otoritelerine sad\u0131k olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fckleri i\u00e7in ve Ha\u015fdi \u015eabi i\u00e7indeki di\u011fer gruplar\u0131n liderlerinden baz\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n, Ebu Mehdi el-M\u00fchendis (Cemal Cafer \u0130brahimi olarak da bilinmektedir) gibi, ge\u00e7mi\u015fte Irak\u2019ta koalisyon g\u00fc\u00e7lerine y\u00f6nelik sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131 nedeniyle ABD taraf\u0131ndan ter\u00f6r \u00f6rg\u00fct\u00fc olarak tan\u0131nd\u0131klar\u0131ndan \u00f6t\u00fcr\u00fc belli sorunlar devam etmektedir[2]<\/a> [3]<\/a>. I\u015e\u0130D ile m\u00fccadele Ha\u015fdi \u015eabi\u2019nin konumunu pek \u00e7ok ki\u015finin g\u00f6z\u00fcnde me\u015frula\u015ft\u0131rm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r ve bu gruplar\u0131n Bedir Hareketi gibi baz\u0131 \u00fcyeleri I\u015e\u0130D\u2019e kar\u015f\u0131 m\u00fccadeledeki \u00e7abalar\u0131n\u0131n meyvelerini toplayabilmek i\u00e7in se\u00e7imleri beklemektedir. Beklentilerin aksine, Irak toplumunun baz\u0131 kesimleri silahl\u0131 gruplar\u0131n siyasi s\u00fcre\u00e7ten uzak tutulmas\u0131 ve normal ya\u015fant\u0131lar\u0131na geri d\u00f6nmesi gerekti\u011fine inanmaktad\u0131r. Ha\u015fdi \u015eabi gruplar\u0131n\u0131n baz\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n I\u015e\u0130D ortaya \u00e7\u0131kmadan \u00f6nce de milis asker olduklar\u0131n\u0131 unutmamal\u0131y\u0131z. Kata\u2019ib Hizbullah gibi gruplar Ha\u015fdi \u015eabi\u2019yi ama\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 gizlemek i\u00e7in kulland\u0131lar. Yeni paramiliter gruplar ortaya \u00e7\u0131kmadan \u00f6nce de var olan gruplar devlet yap\u0131s\u0131na paralel olarak hareket etmekte ve kom\u015fu \u00fclkelerle ili\u015fkilerini koruyarak \u00fclke s\u0131n\u0131rlar\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6tesinde de faaliyet g\u00f6stermektedir. H\u00fck\u00fcmetin kontrol\u00fc d\u0131\u015f\u0131ndaki silahl\u0131 gruplar\u0131n s\u00fcregelen varl\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00fclkenin g\u00fcvenli\u011fi ve istikrar\u0131na y\u00f6nelik en b\u00fcy\u00fck sorun olarak masada durmaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n Ayn\u0131 \u015fekilde Pe\u015fmerge\u2019nin stat\u00fcs\u00fc de ge\u00e7mi\u015fte b\u00fcy\u00fck bir sorun de\u011fildi ancak son zamanlarda Ba\u011fdat ve Erbil aras\u0131ndaki anla\u015fmazl\u0131klar nedeniyle, \u00f6zellikle de K\u00fcrdistan B\u00f6lgesel Y\u00f6netimi\u2019nde (KBY) yap\u0131lan ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131k referandumunun ard\u0131ndan, burada da belli sorunlar ortaya \u00e7\u0131km\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Irak Ba\u015fbakan\u0131 \u0130badi, I\u015e\u0130D\u2019e kar\u015f\u0131 kazan\u0131lan zafere ili\u015fkin olarak \u00e7e\u015fitli silahl\u0131 gruplar\u0131 tebrik etti\u011fi konu\u015fmas\u0131nda Pe\u015fmerge\u2019den bahsetmemi\u015f, bu da yapt\u0131klar\u0131 fedak\u00e2rl\u0131k dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda Irak K\u00fcrtleri aras\u0131nda kafa kar\u0131\u015f\u0131kl\u0131\u011f\u0131na sebep olmu\u015ftur[4]<\/a>. KBY\u2019deki Pe\u015fmerge Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131\u2019ndan gelen ele\u015ftirinin ard\u0131ndan Ba\u015fbakanl\u0131k a\u00e7\u0131klamay\u0131 de\u011fi\u015ftirmi\u015f ve Pe\u015fmerge\u2019nin rol\u00fcne de de\u011finmi\u015ftir. Pe\u015fmerge\u2019nin say\u0131s\u0131 ve merkezi h\u00fck\u00fcmet taraf\u0131ndan Pe\u015fmergelere \u00f6denecek maa\u015fa ili\u015fkin tart\u0131\u015fmalar, Ba\u011fdat ve Erbil aras\u0131ndaki en \u00f6nemli anla\u015fmazl\u0131klardan biridir.<\/p>\n Yukar\u0131da bahsedilen sorunlara ek olarak I\u015e\u0130D\u2019in yeniden ortaya \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n engellenmesi ve yerel silahl\u0131 gruplar\u0131n vilayetlerin savunulmas\u0131nda kullan\u0131lmas\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 da S\u00fcnni Araplar\u0131n ya\u015fad\u0131\u011f\u0131 alanlar\u0131n g\u00fcvenli\u011fi ve ayn\u0131 zamanda sosyal uyum i\u00e7in \u00fczerinde durulmas\u0131 gereken konulard\u0131r. El Kaide ile I\u015e\u0130D\u2019in ortaya \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131 ve Irak\u2019\u0131n d\u00fczenli ordusunun S\u00fcnni Araplar\u0131n g\u00fcvenlik ihtiya\u00e7lar\u0131na cevap verememesi ger\u00e7e\u011fi aras\u0131nda yak\u0131n bir ili\u015fki vard\u0131r.<\/p>\n Ba\u011fdat-Erbil \u0130li\u015fkileri<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n Bu g\u00fcvenlik sorunlar\u0131n\u0131n yan\u0131nda Irak\u2019\u0131n bug\u00fcn kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya oldu\u011fu temel sorun Eyl\u00fcl\u2019deki referandumun ard\u0131ndan Ba\u011fdat ve Erbil aras\u0131ndaki ili\u015fkilerin gelece\u011fidir. Irak Federal Anayasa Mahkemesi karar\u0131 ile referandum anayasaya ayk\u0131r\u0131 bulunmu\u015f ve sonu\u00e7lar\u0131 da ge\u00e7ersiz ilan edilmi\u015ftir[5]<\/a>. Ba\u011fdat bu kararla Erbil ile ili\u015fkilerinin gelece\u011fine y\u00f6nelik g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerde avantaj sa\u011flam\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Mevcut atmosferde Ba\u011fdat ve Erbil aras\u0131ndaki temel sorunlar; s\u0131n\u0131rlar, havaalanlar\u0131 ve b\u00fct\u00e7e konusunda olacakt\u0131r. Kerk\u00fck\u2019\u00fcn ve \u00e7evresindeki topraklar\u0131n Irak ordusunun kontrol\u00fcnde olmas\u0131yla \u0130badi H\u00fck\u00fcmeti avantaj elde etmi\u015f ve kom\u015fu devletlerden ve KBY\u2019den T\u00fcrkiye ve \u0130ran aras\u0131ndaki s\u0131n\u0131r kap\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n kontrol\u00fcn\u00fc Ba\u011fdat yetkililerine devretmelerini istemi\u015ftir. Kara s\u0131n\u0131r kap\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n kontrol\u00fcn\u00fcn d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda, Erbil ve S\u00fcleymaniye havaalanlar\u0131 da KBY i\u00e7in olduk\u00e7a \u00f6nemlidir. Bu iki havaalan\u0131, referandumdan sonra Ba\u011fdat\u2019\u0131n talebiyle uluslararas\u0131 u\u00e7u\u015flara kapat\u0131lm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r, ancak i\u00e7 hat u\u00e7u\u015flar\u0131 devam etmektedir. Kara s\u0131n\u0131rlar\u0131n\u0131n ve KBY\u2019de bulunan iki havaalan\u0131nda uluslararas\u0131 u\u00e7u\u015flar\u0131n \u00e7ift y\u00f6nl\u00fc olarak kontrol\u00fc sadece g\u00fcmr\u00fck gelirleri anlam\u0131nda de\u011fil, \u00f6zerklik bak\u0131\u015f a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan da \u00f6nemlidir. Ba\u011fdat ve Erbil aras\u0131nda s\u0131n\u0131r kap\u0131lar\u0131 ve havaalanlar\u0131yla ili\u015fkili bir di\u011fer tart\u0131\u015fma da s\u00f6zde \u2018tart\u0131\u015fmal\u0131 b\u00f6lgeler\u2019 ile ilgilidir. \u2018Tart\u0131\u015fmal\u0131 b\u00f6lgeler\u2019 konusu yak\u0131n gelecekte, se\u00e7im s\u00fcrecinde de bir tart\u0131\u015fma konusu olmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrecektir. Bu alanlar\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fck bir k\u0131sm\u0131 Ba\u011fdat\u2019\u0131n kontrol\u00fcnde olsa da bir yanda ordu ve Ha\u015fdi \u015eabi, di\u011fer yanda Pe\u015fmerge\u2019nin oldu\u011fu ve halen gerilimin y\u00fcksek oldu\u011fu baz\u0131 b\u00f6lgeler bulunmaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n Ba\u011fdat ve Erbil aras\u0131ndaki bir di\u011fer anla\u015fmazl\u0131k, son birka\u00e7 y\u0131ld\u0131r s\u00fcrt\u00fc\u015fmelere neden olan b\u00fct\u00e7e konusudur. Ba\u011fdat bu konuda son d\u00f6nemlerde, daha \u00f6nceki pay\u0131n Irak i\u00e7inde KBY n\u00fcfusu oran\u0131n\u0131 temsil etmedi\u011fini \u00f6ne s\u00fcrerek KBY\u2019ye ayr\u0131lm\u0131\u015f olan b\u00fct\u00e7eyi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmeyi hedeflemektedir. Bu mant\u0131\u011fa g\u00f6re, KBY n\u00fcfusu \u00fclke n\u00fcfusunun y\u00fczde 12,6\u2019s\u0131 civar\u0131ndad\u0131r ve b\u00fct\u00e7eye y\u00fczde 17\u2019nin de\u011fil bu oran\u0131n yans\u0131t\u0131lmas\u0131 gereklidir. Buna ek olarak, KBY taraf\u0131ndan al\u0131nan g\u00fcmr\u00fck vergilerinin Ba\u011fdat\u2019a teslim edilmesi gereklidir. Ba\u011fdat ayn\u0131 zamanda KBY\u2019nin ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z ekonomik faaliyetlerini kontrol etmek i\u00e7in, KBY taraf\u0131ndan yap\u0131lan petrol ihracat\u0131n\u0131 da s\u0131n\u0131rlamay\u0131 ama\u00e7lamaktad\u0131r. Irak h\u00fck\u00fcmeti bu taleplere kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k olarak, KBY\u2019deki \u00e7al\u0131\u015fanlara ili\u015fkin bilgi sa\u011flayaca\u011f\u0131ndan, b\u00f6lgedeki kamu personelinin \u00fccretlerini \u00f6demeye haz\u0131r oldu\u011funu a\u00e7\u0131klam\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Burada sorun, KBY yetkililerinin kendilerine sad\u0131k kesimleri \u00f6d\u00fcllendirebilmek i\u00e7in kamu personeli say\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 abartt\u0131klar\u0131na ili\u015fkin genel bir kabul olmas\u0131d\u0131r. Zira KBY\u2019deki ki\u015fi ba\u015f\u0131na d\u00fc\u015fen kamu personeli say\u0131s\u0131 Irak\u2019\u0131n di\u011fer k\u0131s\u0131mlar\u0131nda oldu\u011fundan \u00e7ok daha y\u00fcksektir[6]<\/a>.<\/p>\n Yukar\u0131da bahsedilen anla\u015fmazl\u0131klara ek olarak I\u015e\u0130D\u2019den temizlenen alanlar\u0131n yeniden yap\u0131land\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 nedeniyle bu b\u00f6lgelere bir b\u00fct\u00e7e ayr\u0131lmas\u0131 gerekmektedir ve KBY\u2019nin b\u00fct\u00e7edeki pay\u0131n\u0131n bu nedenle azalt\u0131lmas\u0131 gerekir. I\u015e\u0130D\u2019e kar\u015f\u0131 sava\u015f, petrol \u00fcretimi ve ihracat\u0131 altyap\u0131s\u0131na zarar verdi\u011fi i\u00e7in, petrol \u00fcretiminin ve ihracat\u0131n\u0131n azalmas\u0131na neden olmu\u015ftur. Bu nedenle kuzey petrol yataklar\u0131ndan yap\u0131lan ihracat \u00f6nemli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde azalm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Bu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f KBY\u2019de ve \u00fclkenin di\u011fer k\u0131s\u0131mlar\u0131nda ekonomik ko\u015fullara zarar vermektedir. Referandumdan sonra Kerk\u00fck\u2019\u00fcn Ba\u011fdat taraf\u0131ndan kontrol edilmesi KBY\u2019nin ekonomik ko\u015fullar\u0131na inen bir di\u011fer darbedir. Ba\u011fdat ve Tahran, KBY\u2019den ge\u00e7en mevcut petrol boru hatt\u0131n\u0131 kullanmak yerine Kerk\u00fck petrol\u00fcn\u00fc \u0130ran petrol\u00fc ile takas etmeye y\u00f6nelik bir anla\u015fma imzalam\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Bu anla\u015fmaya g\u00f6re, Kerk\u00fck\u2019\u00fcn 30 bin ila 60 bin varil aras\u0131ndaki ham petrol\u00fc kamyonlarla \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n bir rafinerisinin bulundu\u011fu Kirman\u015fah\u2019a ta\u015f\u0131nacakt\u0131r. Kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131nda \u0130ran ayn\u0131 kalite ve miktarda petrol\u00fc Irak\u2019\u0131n g\u00fcney limanlar\u0131na teslim edecektir[7]<\/a>. Bu durum, KBY\u2019nin ve T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin ge\u00e7i\u015f harc\u0131ndan yararlanmas\u0131n\u0131 engelleyecektir.<\/p>\n Petrol ihracat\u0131ndaki bu gerilemeye ek olarak petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f de Irak h\u00fck\u00fcmetinin b\u00fct\u00e7esine zarar vermektedir. Irak h\u00fck\u00fcmeti 2018 y\u0131l\u0131nda, s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kaynaklarla m\u00fcltecilerin \u00fclkelerine geri d\u00f6nmeleri konusu ve kasaba ve \u015fehirlerin yeniden in\u015fas\u0131 sorunlar\u0131n\u0131n \u00fcstesinden gelmek zorundad\u0131r. Yine de g\u00fcney yataklar\u0131ndan petrol ihracat\u0131n\u0131n artmakta olmas\u0131 gibi baz\u0131 iyi haberler de vard\u0131r.<\/p>\n Bu konular\u0131 tart\u0131\u015fmak i\u00e7in Ba\u011fdat ve Erbil aras\u0131nda diyalog gereklidir. Ba\u011fdat KBY\u2019den ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131k referandumunun sonu\u00e7lar\u0131ndan b\u00fct\u00fcn\u00fcyle feragat etti\u011fine dair bir a\u00e7\u0131klama yapmas\u0131n\u0131 talep etmekte, KBY ise Federal Mahkeme\u2019nin referandumun anayasaya uygun olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 karar\u0131na sayg\u0131 duydu\u011funu a\u00e7\u0131klamaktad\u0131r. Her iki taraf da isti\u015fare ihtiyac\u0131n\u0131n fark\u0131ndad\u0131r, ancak iki taraf aras\u0131ndaki \u00e7eki\u015fme \u015fu ana kadar devam etmektedir. Son g\u00fcnlerde her iki taraf\u0131n yetkilileri aras\u0131nda biri Ba\u011fdat\u2019ta di\u011feri Erbil\u2019de olmak \u00fczere iki toplant\u0131 ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmi\u015ftir. G\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerde s\u0131n\u0131r kap\u0131lar\u0131, hava alanlar\u0131, petrol ve ilgili konular ele al\u0131nm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r[8]<\/a>. Taraflar aras\u0131nda genel bir mutabakat s\u00f6z konusudur, ancak bu konuda mesafe kaydetmek i\u00e7in Ba\u015fbakan\u0131n onay\u0131 gerekmektedir.<\/p>\n Ekonomik-Sosyal Zorluklar<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n Yakla\u015fmakta olan 2018 se\u00e7imleriyle birlikte Irak h\u00fck\u00fcmetinin kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya oldu\u011fu bir di\u011fer zorluk, ba\u015fta S\u00fcnni b\u00f6lgeler olmak \u00fczere, \u00fclke i\u00e7inde ve d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda yerlerinden edilmi\u015f ki\u015filerin evlerine d\u00f6nmelerini sa\u011flamak noktas\u0131ndad\u0131r. BM kurulu\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n verdi\u011fi resmi rakamlara g\u00f6re, Irak\u2019ta 3,2 milyon civar\u0131nda insan \u00fclke i\u00e7inde yerinden edilmi\u015f durumdad\u0131r. Ayn\u0131 verilere g\u00f6re Irak\u2019ta 11 milyon ki\u015fi de insani yard\u0131ma ihtiya\u00e7 duymaktad\u0131r[9]<\/a>. Irak h\u00fck\u00fcmeti y\u0131l sonuna kadar t\u00fcm yerinden edilenlerin geri d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015flerini sa\u011flayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klam\u0131\u015f olsa da I\u015e\u0130D\u2019den temizlenen b\u00f6lgelerdeki ko\u015fullar dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda bunun imk\u00e2ns\u0131z oldu\u011fu a\u00e7\u0131kt\u0131r. Altyap\u0131 zarar g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc i\u00e7in insanlar elektrik ve sudan yoksundur, bu da onlar\u0131n evlerine d\u00f6nmelerini engellemektedir[10]<\/a>.<\/p>\n 2003 y\u0131l\u0131ndan sonra Irak\u2019\u0131n tan\u0131k oldu\u011fu \u015fiddet d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fcn tekrarlanmamas\u0131 i\u00e7in kasaba ve kentlerin yeniden in\u015fas\u0131 \u00fclkenin istikrar\u0131 i\u00e7in olduk\u00e7a \u00f6nem ta\u015f\u0131maktad\u0131r. \u00dclkedeki siyasi s\u00fcrecin itibar\u0131 i\u00e7in yerinden edilmi\u015f insanlar evlerine geri d\u00f6nebilmeli ve se\u00e7imlere kat\u0131lmal\u0131d\u0131r. Irak h\u00fck\u00fcmeti bu durumun fark\u0131nda olarak bu sorunu \u00e7\u00f6zmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmaktad\u0131r, ancak k\u0131sa vadede sonu\u00e7 alacak mali kaynak ve kurumsal kapasiteden yoksundur. H\u00e2lihaz\u0131rdaki \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmalar bu \u015fekilde devam ederse zarara u\u011fram\u0131\u015f altyap\u0131n\u0131n yeniden in\u015fas\u0131 en az 5 y\u0131l alacakt\u0131r. I\u015e\u0130D\u2019in harabeye \u00e7evirdi\u011fi kent ve kasabalar\u0131n yeniden in\u015fas\u0131ndaki herhangi bir gecikme nefreti ve tutucu bir yabanc\u0131la\u015fma duygusunu ate\u015fleyecek, bu da zamanla Irak\u2019\u0131n 2003 y\u0131l\u0131ndan bu yana tan\u0131k oldu\u011funa benzer senaryolar\u0131n yeniden n\u00fcksetmesine yol a\u00e7abilecektir. Pentagon\u2019un rakamlar\u0131na g\u00f6re ABD, Irak ve Suriye\u2019de I\u015e\u0130D\u2019e kar\u015f\u0131 m\u00fccadele i\u00e7in son \u00fc\u00e7 y\u0131lda 14,3 milyar dolar harcarken, onar\u0131m i\u00e7in sadece 1,4 milyar dolar harcam\u0131\u015ft\u0131r[11]<\/a>. ABD ve Bat\u0131l\u0131 \u00fclkelerde, Irak i\u00e7in gereken mali deste\u011fin sa\u011flanmas\u0131 konusunda bir ivedilik s\u00f6z konusu de\u011fildir.<\/p>\n Irak i\u00e7in umut edilen, \u00fclkeyi yeniden in\u015fa edebilmesi ve kom\u015fu devletlerle ili\u015fkilerini iyile\u015ftirmek yoluyla \u015fiddet sarmal\u0131n\u0131n geri d\u00f6nmesi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6nleyebilmesidir. \u0130kili ili\u015fkileri iyile\u015ftirmek i\u00e7in Kuveyt ve Suudi Arabistan gibi kom\u015fu Arap \u00fclkelere ziyaretlerde bulunulmakta ve bu \u00fclkelerden gelen ziyaret\u00e7iler de a\u011f\u0131rlanmaktad\u0131r. Irak\u2019\u0131n bak\u0131\u015f a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131yla, kom\u015fularla ili\u015fkilerin iyile\u015fmesi \u00fclkedeki ekonomik ko\u015fullar\u0131n ve g\u00fcvenli\u011fin iyile\u015ftirilmesi i\u00e7in olduk\u00e7a \u00f6nemlidir, \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc I\u015e\u0130D\u2019den kurtar\u0131lan alanlarda g\u00fcvenli\u011fin sa\u011flanmas\u0131 ve ekonomik ko\u015fullar\u0131n iyile\u015ftirilmesi i\u00e7in kom\u015fu \u00fclkelerle i\u015f birli\u011fi i\u00e7inde olmak elzemdir.<\/p>\n \u0130htiya\u00e7 duyulan fonu sa\u011flamak ve yeniden yap\u0131land\u0131rma ihtiyac\u0131 hakk\u0131nda fark\u0131ndal\u0131k olu\u015fturmak \u00fczere Kuveyt\u2019te bir uluslararas\u0131 konferans\u0131n toplanmas\u0131 planlanmaktad\u0131r. Bu konferans D\u00fcnya Bankas\u0131 deste\u011fi ile I\u015e\u0130D\u2019den temizlenen alanlar\u0131n yeniden yap\u0131land\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131na fon sa\u011flamak i\u00e7in 12 ve 14 \u015eubat 2018 tarihleri aras\u0131nda Kuveyt\u2019te ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirilecektir[12]<\/a>. A\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olarak S\u00fcnni Arap b\u00f6lgelerdeki yeniden yap\u0131land\u0131rma konusu, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki y\u0131l yap\u0131lacak se\u00e7imler \u00f6ncesi siyasi s\u00fcre\u00e7 i\u00e7in olduk\u00e7a \u00f6nemlidir. Kom\u015fu Arap \u00fclkeler Irak\u2019ta sadece I\u015e\u0130D benzeri gruplar\u0131n ortaya \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6nlemede de\u011fil, ayn\u0131 zamanda \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n Irak \u00fczerindeki do\u011frudan etkisinin s\u0131n\u0131rland\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131nda da bir rol oynayabilirler. Bunu sa\u011flamak i\u00e7in Irak siyasal sistemindeki S\u00fcnni gruplar siyasi alanda yap\u0131c\u0131 bir rol oynamak zorundad\u0131r. Mevcut ko\u015fullar alt\u0131nda S\u00fcnni gruplar, siyasi bir y\u00f6nlendirmeye ve ayn\u0131 zamanda topluluklar\u0131n\u0131n ya\u015fam ko\u015fullar\u0131n\u0131 iyile\u015ftirmeye y\u00f6nelik beklentiye ihtiya\u00e7 duymaktad\u0131rlar. Kom\u015fu \u00fclkelerden gelecek destekler, \u00fclkenin istikrar\u0131 i\u00e7in de \u00f6nemli bir rol oynayabilir.<\/p>\n 2018 Se\u00e7imleri \u00d6ncesinde Siyaset<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n 2018\u2019in ilk g\u00fcnlerinde, farkl\u0131 siyasi gruplar i\u00e7inde yak\u0131n bir zaman sonra siyaset sahnesinde \u00f6nemli de\u011fi\u015fiklikler olaca\u011f\u0131 mutabakat\u0131na dayanan haz\u0131rl\u0131klar g\u00f6rmekteyiz. Irak son se\u00e7imlerin ard\u0131ndan bilhassa g\u00fcvenlik ve ekonomik sorunlar nedeniyle olduk\u00e7a zor y\u0131llardan ge\u00e7mi\u015ftir. Eski Ba\u015fbakan Maliki\u2019nin tutumu \u00fclkenin S\u00fcnni Arap ve K\u00fcrt n\u00fcfusuyla ciddi sorunlar ortaya \u00e7\u0131karm\u0131\u015ft\u0131; hatta Maliki baz\u0131 \u015eii Arap \u00e7evrelerinde bile \u00e7ok pop\u00fcler de\u011fildi. Musul\u2019un ve \u00fclkenin \u00fc\u00e7te birinin I\u015e\u0130D\u2019in kontrol\u00fcne girmesiyle birlikte \u00fclkenin g\u00fcvenlik sorunlar\u0131 belirgin bir hale gelmi\u015ftir. Bu sorunlarla bir araya gelen petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f de petrole ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131 ekonomiyi ciddi bir bi\u00e7imde vurmu\u015ftur. I\u015e\u0130D ile m\u00fccadele Ba\u011fdat ve Erbil aras\u0131ndaki kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131kl\u0131 cephele\u015fmenin en az\u0131ndan bir s\u00fcreli\u011fine, 2017 Eyl\u00fcl\u2019\u00fcne kadar ertelenmesine imk\u00e2n vermi\u015ftir.<\/p>\n 2018 ufku, ge\u00e7mi\u015fte tan\u0131k olunan k\u00e2busu and\u0131ran y\u0131llarla k\u0131yasland\u0131\u011f\u0131nda daha parlak g\u00f6r\u00fcnmektedir; I\u015e\u0130D\u2019e kar\u015f\u0131 elde edilen zafer, petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n 60 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerindeki g\u00f6reli istikrar\u0131, Irak\u2019\u0131n farkl\u0131 siyasi akt\u00f6rlerinin ayr\u0131l\u0131k\u00e7\u0131 tutucu retori\u011fin tehlikeleri hakk\u0131nda \u00f6\u011frendikleri, ABD\u2019nin taraf\u0131n\u0131 tutma konusunda Irak\u2019a daha fazla adanm\u0131\u015fl\u0131k bunun ba\u015fl\u0131ca g\u00f6stergeleridir. 2011\u2019de oldu\u011fu gibi erkenden geri \u00e7ekilme hatas\u0131n\u0131 tekrarlamamak i\u00e7in, 2018 se\u00e7imleri sonras\u0131nda olumlu bir senaryonun ortaya \u00e7\u0131kaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6rebiliriz. Irakl\u0131lar bu uzun k\u00e2bus y\u0131llar\u0131ndan olduk\u00e7a yorulmu\u015f ve farkl\u0131 etnik ve mezhep gruplar\u0131n\u0131n i\u00e7indeki siyasi fig\u00fcrlerin b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00e7o\u011funlu\u011funa olan g\u00fcvenini kaybetmi\u015ftir. \u00dclke i\u00e7in kapsaml\u0131 planlarla birlikte yeni y\u00fczlere \u00f6zlem duyuldu\u011fu a\u00e7\u0131kt\u0131r. Farkl\u0131 siyasi gruplar aras\u0131nda yakla\u015fan se\u00e7imlere y\u00f6nelik ittifaklar vard\u0131r. \u0130badi\u2019nin \u00f6nderli\u011findeki Zafer Koalisyonu ve Hadi el Amiri\u2019nin ba\u015f\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7ekti\u011fi Fetih Koalisyonu aras\u0131nda ittifak haberleri pek \u00e7ok ki\u015fi taraf\u0131ndan \u015fa\u015f\u0131rt\u0131c\u0131 bulunmu\u015ftur, \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc olduk\u00e7a farkl\u0131 se\u00e7im tabanlar\u0131na hitap etmektedirler[13]<\/a>. Bu noktada hem Erbil\u2019de hem de Irak\u2019ta farkl\u0131 gruplar aras\u0131nda ittifak kurma giri\u015fimleri s\u00fcrmektedir.<\/p>\n Ancak se\u00e7imlerin sorunsuz ge\u00e7mesinin \u00f6n\u00fcnde h\u00e2l\u00e2 birka\u00e7 engel bulunmaktad\u0131r. \u00dclke i\u00e7inde yerinden edilmi\u015f insanlar\u0131n evlerine d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fc, harap olmu\u015f altyap\u0131n\u0131n yeniden in\u015fas\u0131, g\u00fcvenlik birimlerinde reform ve t\u00fcm masraflar\u0131n geliri olarak kullan\u0131lmak \u00fczere petrol ihracat\u0131n\u0131n artmas\u0131 zaruridir. Irak\u2019\u0131n g\u00fcvenli\u011fi ve istikrar\u0131 hem \u00fclkedeki, hem de b\u00f6lgedeki halk\u0131n \u00e7o\u011funlu\u011funun ortak arzusudur. Ancak istikrara eri\u015fme bak\u0131m\u0131ndan farkl\u0131 \u00f6ncelikler s\u00f6z konusudur. Irak h\u00fck\u00fcmetinin ve Irakl\u0131 siyaset\u00e7ilerin \u00f6n\u00fcndeki g\u00f6rev \u00fclke i\u00e7inde ve b\u00f6lgede farkl\u0131 akt\u00f6rler aras\u0131nda do\u011fru dengeyi bulmakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n Referanslar<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n [1]<\/a> Coker, Margaret, ve Hassan, Falih. \u201cIraq Prime Minister Declares Victory Over IS.\u201d New York Times, 3 Aral\u0131k 2017. https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2017\/12\/09\/world\/middleeast\/iraq-IShaider-al-abadi.html<\/a><\/p>\n [2]<\/a> Kurdistani, Ali. \u201cThe militia leader who defies the US and proud of loyalty to Iran.\u201d Rudaw, 7 Haziran 2016. http:\/\/www.rudaw.net\/english\/middleeast\/iraq\/07062016<\/a><\/p>\n [3]<\/a> \u201cHashd defend commander labelled terrorist by U.S.\u201d Rudaw, 27 Ekim 2017. http:\/\/www.rudaw.net\/NewsDetails.aspx?pageid=338164<\/a><\/p>\n [4]<\/a> Mostafa, Nehal. \u201cPeshmerga slams Abadi for not mentioning troops\u2019 role in anti-IS war.\u201d Iraqi News, 10 Aral\u0131k 2017. https:\/\/www.iraqinews.com\/iraq-war\/peshmerga-slams-abadi-notmentioning-troops-role-anti-war\/<\/a><\/p>\n [5]<\/a> Rasheed, Ahmed, and Jalabi, Raya. \u201cIraqi court rules Kurdish independence vote unconstitutional.\u201d Reuters, 20 Kas\u0131m 2017. https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/article\/usmideast-crIS-iraq-kurds\/iraqi-court-ruleskurdish-independence-vote-unconstitutionalidUSKBN1DK0Q6<\/a><\/p>\n [6]<\/a> Hasan al-Qaraweeis, Harith. \u201cBudget Politics and Baghdad-Kurdish Relations.\u201d The Atlantic Council, 16 Kas\u0131m 2017. http:\/\/www.atlanticcouncil.org\/blogs\/menasource\/budgetpolitics-and-baghdad-kurdish-relations<\/a><\/p>\n [7]<\/a> \u201cIraq and Iran sign Kirkuk oil swap deal.\u201d Reuters, 9 Aral\u0131k 2017. https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/article\/us-iran-iraq-oil\/iraq-and-iran-signkirkuk-oil-swap-deal-idUSKBN1E30JE<\/a><\/p>\n [8]<\/a> \u201cErbil, Baghdad to hammer out agreement that will end flight ban, statement.\u201d Rudaw, 13 Ocak 2018 http:\/\/www.rudaw.net\/english\/kurdistan\/13012018<\/a><\/p>\n [9]<\/a> Global Humanitarian overview 2016, UNOCHA. https:\/\/www.unocha.org\/sites\/unocha\/files\/GHO-2016.pdf<\/a><\/p>\n [10]<\/a> Mostafa, Mohamed \u201cIraqi government: nearly 22.000 refugees repatriated in Mosul in 4 days.\u201d Iraqi News, 30 Ekim 2017. https:\/\/www.iraqinews.com\/features\/iraqi-governmentnearly-22-000-refugees-repatriated-mosul-4days\/<\/a><\/p>\n [11]<\/a> Sly, Liz, and Ameen Schwan, Aaso. \u201cIS is near defeat in Iraq. Now comes the hard part.\u201d the Washington Post, 13 Eyl\u00fcl 2017. https:\/\/ www.washingtonpost.com\/world\/middle_east\/IS-is-near-defeat-in-iraq-now-comes-thehard-part\/2017\/09\/13\/68b1f742-8d9e-11e79c53-6a169beb0953_story.html?utm_term=.da44b4a5d5d4<\/a><\/p>\n [12]<\/a> Iraq reconstruction conference in Kuwait planned for early 2018.” Reuters, 22 Eyl\u00fcl 2017. https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/article\/usmideast-crIS-syria-usa\/iraq-reconstructionconference-in-kuwait-planned-for-early-2018idUSKCN1BX2CY?il=0<\/a><\/p>\n [13]<\/a> Alabbasi, Mamoon. \u201cLast-minute deals sought in Iraq election alliances.\u201d 14 Ocak 2018, The Arab Weekly. http:\/\/www.thearabweekly.com\/Opinion\/10031\/Last-minute-deals-sought-inIraq-election-alliances<\/a><\/p>\n <\/p>\n<\/div> 9 Aral\u0131k 2017\u2019de, Irak Ba\u015fbakan\u0131 \u0130badi Irak \u015eam \u0130slam Devleti\u2019ne (I\u015e\u0130D) kar\u015f\u0131 zaferini ilan etti ve \u00fclkenin tarihindeki karanl\u0131k bir b\u00f6l\u00fcm sona erdi.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":13,"featured_media":9729,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","ngg_post_thumbnail":0},"categories":[361],"tags":[9816],"asf_pub_issue":[10319],"asf_pub_region":[10321],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9728"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/13"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=9728"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9728\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":23950,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9728\/revisions\/23950"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/9729"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=9728"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=9728"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=9728"},{"taxonomy":"asf_pub_issue","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/asf_pub_issue?post=9728"},{"taxonomy":"asf_pub_region","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/research.sharqforum.org\/tr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/asf_pub_region?post=9728"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}