The Nile: God, Life Giver, and Battleground

Throughout history, the Nile River has been viewed as the central artery of civilization in the region, sustaining life and shaping the social, economic, and political foundations of the societies that rose along its banks. Stretching approximately 6,853 kilometers from Lake Victoria to Egypt’s Mediterranean coast, the Nile is the longest river in the world. It is formed by two major tributaries — the White Nile and the Blue Nile — which meet in Sudan’s capital, Khartoum. The river flows through 11 African countries: Burundi, Tanzania, Rwanda, Kenya, Uganda, South Sudan, Ethiopia, Sudan, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Eritrea, and Egypt. Today, this river faces unprecedented pressures. According to the United Nations, the Nile’s flow has dropped from 3,000 cubic meters per second to 2,830, largely due to extreme droughts, reduced rainfall, and climate change. If current trends continue, the UN forecasts that the river’s flow could fall by up to 70 percent by 2100. Egypt and Sudan, meanwhile, argue that Ethiopia’s management of its new dam has further reduced the river’s water levels.

Ethiopia, home to more than 120 million people, still struggles with severe energy shortages — about 55% of Ethiopians live without electricity, and 13 million households depend on traditional energy sources. To address this, Ethiopia constructed Africa’s largest hydroelectric dam, the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), located near the Sudanese border on the Blue Nile. The dam has a capacity of 6,450 megawatts and can hold about 74 billion cubic meters of water. Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed envisions the GERD not only as a source of power for Ethiopian households but also as a cornerstone for transforming the country into a leading electricity exporter across Africa, with projected annual revenues of around $1billion from electiricity exports.

For Egypt, however, this project represents an existential threat. The Nile provides more than 95% of Egypt’s fresh water and sustains nearly 97% of its population, most of whom live along its banks. Without the Nile, Egypt — largely desert — would struggle to survive. Egyptians and Sudanese remain deeply concerned that the GERD grants Ethiopia control over how much water flows downstream.

Since construction began in 2011, multiple rounds of negotiations and mediation efforts, involving the United States, the World Bank, and the African Union have failed to yield a lasting agreement.  United states, which previously opposed the dam and supported Egypt, now suggests that the dispute can be resolved swiftly through technical means. Cairo has proposed serious of technical alternatives; however, Ethiopia still insists on acting unilaterally. Ethiopia views the Gerd as a matter of national sovereignty and development. The country rejects the colonial-era Nile treaties, which favored Egypt and Sudan, arguing that they are outdated and unjust since Ethiopia was never signatory. Moreover, Addis Ababa believes external pressures and prolonged negotiations would delay its economic growth and energy goals, so it chooses to move forward independently. This unilateral stance also reflects Ethiopia’s desire to assert regional influence and symbolize national pride.

 As climate change accelerates and dry seasons intensify, the question of how to share the Nile’s waters remains unresolved. Ethiopia needs electricity, Egypt needs the Nile, and Sudan needs both water and power.  Geopolitical dynamics in the region are shifting, Ethiopia has emerged from obscurity to become a rising powerhouse, while Egypt remains a formidable regional actor with significant military strength. To ensure long-term stability the three nations must return to the negotiating table to establish a fair, transparent, and enforceable agreement.

Who Controls the Nile: The Cold War Over Nile

Current Nile dispute lies in the unequal agreements of 1929 and 1959.Under British colonial rule, Egypt was granted extensive control over the river including veto over upstream projects reflecting the imperial hierarchy that treated Cairo as the centerpiece of Britian’s Nile policy. Today Ethiopia views those treaties as relics of injustice agreements it never signed, designed to limit its development. The colonial legacy fuels resentment and complicates negotiations. The dispute extends beyond water ,it encompasses the ratification of unequal colonial treatment.

Officially, Ethiopia maintains that the dam was entirely built and financed by Ethiopians themselves a symbol of national pride and self-reliance. However, multiple independent assessments suggests that external partners including United states and China provided limited but meaningful support such as financing and technical assistance complicating the narrative of exclusively domestic funding..   

Israel’s indirect involvement has also been noted, as it views control over the Nile’s Ethiopian sources as a strategic opportunity to enhance its water security and extend its influence in the Middle East. Through supporting projects like GERD on the Blue Nile, Israel gains leverage in the region. Ultimately, the dam not only boosts Ethiopia’s irrigation and energy capacity but also reshapes the balance of power in the Nile Basin by potentially reducing Egypt’s share of the river’s vital waters. Tel Aviv and Addis Ababa have signed an agreement to work in the field of water resources and energy development.

In his article “Israeli strategy Towards the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD)” Prof. Dr. Walid ‘Abd al-Hay argues that Israel strategically uses water politics in particularly in relation to the Nile basin and the GERD project to maintain its regional advantage. He suggests that by influencing water distribution and supporting projects that weaken Egypt and other neighboring states economically and politically, Israel seeks to ensure that no hostile power in the region can challenge its dominance or security interests.

Egypt’s Concerns; Water Security and National Survival

Ethiopia filled the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) in July 2020 and started to produce electricity February 2022, marking an exceptionally swift filling and operational process. Ethiopia took advantage of the revolution, where Egypt was busy with its internal politics. As a result, Egypt estimated to lose between 18.8% -51.3% of its annual water share. If this scenario occurs the potential loss of agricultural land could reach 22.6%-52.8%. Given that Egypt already faces a tight water supply, even a small reduction in Nile flow could have severe impacts on agriculture, food security and livelihoods. With a population exceeding 116  million water remains Egypt’s primary lifeline.

 Recently new tensions have risen over the GERD following flooding in Sudan’s capital Khartoum and the submergence of more than 1260 feddans of farmland in Egypt’s Menoufia and Beheira regions. President Al-Sisi criticized Ethiopia for what he described as uncoordinated and mismanaged water releases. However, according to hydrologists, dams primarily serve to regulate flooding rather than completely halt water flow. In other words, the Nile’s waters originating from Lake Tana continue to flow naturally; neither Ethiopia nor the GERD has the capacity to stop the rivers course altogether.

Egypt has adopted multidimensional approach to safeguard its water security amid growing challenges posed by GERD and increasing national water scarcity. Diplomatically, Cairo continues to press for a legally binding agreement on the dam’s operation through African union and the United Nations, President Abdelfattah Al-Sisi, in last month Cairo water week called for the need to establish legally binding agreement on the filling and operating the dam. 

Domestically Sisi administration is investing heavily in large-scale water management projects including the Bahr El Baqar wastewater treatment plant and a series of desalination plants along the Red Sea and mediterranean coasts. Modern irrigation system is being introduced to replace traditional methods, alongside companies encourage farmers to plant less water intensive crops.

Egypt is also working on blooming the desert with its New Delta Project, using desert for agriculture building the world’s largest artificial river. The project will create 9000 km of new farmland.  Which means Nile water would no longer flow into mediterranean Sea but rather into the artificial river, Egypt’s broader effort to adapt to water scarcity through innovation diplomacy and public awareness.

Regional Cooperation: Ethiopia and Egypt

The two nations must prioritize cooperation and mutual benefit.  Ethiopia must maintain transparency regarding technical data, while both sides demonstrate flexibility and a willingness to compromise for lasting regional peace. Rather than engaging in conflict, collaboration could yield far greater rewards. For example, Egypt has advanced agricultural expertise, while Ethiopia has some of the most fertile soils in Africa. Egypt could invest in Ethiopian agriculture instead of importing crops from elsewhere, fostering a partnership that benefits both nations’ economies and strengthens regional stability.  Another attempt at cooperation was the 2020 U.S.-drafted agreement on the GERD, mediated by the United States and the World Bank. The talks failed because Egypt requested a guaranteed annual flow of 40 billion cubic meters, while Ethiopia argued that fixed guaranteed would restrict its ability to manage hydropower during droughts. A more viable solution could involve a flexible water flow system based on rainfall and seasonal variations balancing Egypt’s water needs with Ethiopia’s sovereignty.

A Shared River for a Shared Future

Nile holds deep symbolic and existential significance for both Egypt and Ethiopia. Both nations depend on it for survival, Egypt relies on its water as a lifeline while for Ethiopians the river represents a source of hope for development and progress. Water remains a highly sensitive issue for Egyptians often considered a red line. However, for Ethiopia the construction of GERD symbolizes national pride and the promise of overcoming energy poverty.

The core of the conflict lies in the absence of  comprehensive binding agreement supported by transparent data sharing and coordinated reservoir operation protocols, which have already caused flooding in downstream regions. Egypt has shown a willingness to find a peaceful solution, with the government adopting a less confrontational tone.  Since the dam is now fully built and operational dismantling would be neither feasible for efficient. Instead, all parties must prioritize cooperation, ideally facilitated by international mediators or regional organizations. Reaching a binding agreement as soon as possible is essential for ensuring regional stability and sustainable development. Unilateral actions by any party risk deepening mistrust and undermining the long term stability of a basin shared by eleven nations.