15 Feb, 2016

Iran’s Oil Comeback: The Awakening of a Giant?

Carole Nakhle | 15 February 2016

The lifting of economic and trade sanctions in relation to Iran’s nuclear programme means that the Islamic Republic should be able to export its oil freely to a wide range of customers, just as it did before the imposition of sanctions. Since Iran was not a negligible producer, other producers fear that the timing of its comeback to the market is bad news, as it may lead to lower oil prices for longer, especially if OPEC sticks to its existing strategy. The key questions that the international community is subsequently debating are: will Iran flood the oil market and, more importantly, is it able to do so? As this article argues, the sanctions were only partially responsible for Iran’s energy problems, and their removal will not solve the country’s long standing impediments to production, which, in the absence of sound and robust reforms, will prohibit a rapid expansion in Iranian capacity, as they have done for decades now.

Iran’s Oil Comeback: The Awakening of a Giant?2022-01-28T12:27:22+03:00
15 Feb, 2016

The PKK’s Low-Intensity Warfare: Background, Causes, Regional Dynamics, and Implications

Galip Dalay | 15 February 2016

The Kurdish question dominates Turkey’s political agenda again, this time through low-intensity urban warfare. Just a year ago, a peace deal between the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) and Turkey seemed attainable, but the situation has deteriorated since the summer of 2015. The government has not sufficiently appreciated how the Kurds’ gains in Syria and Iraq have become the reference points of the Kurdish movement in Turkey. Recent fighting has resulted in the further consolidation of the Kurdish movement around the PKK, which bodes ill for the future of Turkey and the Kurdish movement in general. This vicious cycle can only be broken by the mutual accommodation of Turkey and the PKK on Syria and Turkey’s Kurdish regions. Turkey will need to cease to question the Syrian Kurdish gains and look for some kind of modus vivendi with this entity; the PKK must reciprocate by terminating its urban-warfare strategy in Turkey

The PKK’s Low-Intensity Warfare: Background, Causes, Regional Dynamics, and Implications2022-01-28T12:24:29+03:00
15 Feb, 2016

Lifting Sanctions on Iran: Shifting Sands or Major Earthquake?

Mahjoob Zweiri | 15 February 2016

The nuclear deal and its ramifications have added new elements of tensions between the Islamic Republic and the Gulf States. The lifting of the sanctions will be a significant addition to Iran’s financial capacity, which is likely to further Iran’s Involvement in Iraq, Syria and Yemen. With King Salman’s new foreign policy approach to the Middle East, more Iranian involvement in the region with the removal of the sanctions is probably going to complicate regional politics between the Iran and the Gulf States and will exasperate the competition for regional and international influence.

Lifting Sanctions on Iran: Shifting Sands or Major Earthquake?2022-01-28T12:23:11+03:00
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