Tamer BadawiAbstract: Amid the European Union’s increasing efforts to diversify its natural gas supplies, Iran has emerged as a potential supplier to the bloc following the conclusion of its nuclear accord. Iran has enormous natural gas reserves; more, in fact, than Russia or Qatar. These reserves remain underdeveloped due to suffocating sanctions that hindered the inflow of the necessary foreign capital and investment. While the nuclear accord and sanctions relief removes many of the obstacles that Iran has faced over the course of the last decade, Iran faces significant challenges on the road to becoming a world-class gas exporter.
Rampant consumption and inefficiency on the domestic level absorb much of the gas Iran produces. Geopolitical uncertainty on the regional and global levels are also fueling the securitization of the country’s energy sector, as certain segments of the Iranian establishment see the sector as a gateway for Western economic infiltration. Geopolitical shifts on the global level may change Iran’s energy calculations in terms of the development of its oil sector and the expansion of natural gas export projects. This analysis assesses the domestic, regional, and global factors that impact the prospects of exporting Iranian natural gas to the EU in the future.