Abstract: European negotiators hoped that the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), or Iranian nuclear deal, could pave the way for further diplomacy to bring about a more normal and peaceful Iranian role in the region. But key regional powers thought it would have the opposite effect. Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Israel thought it would allow Iran to entrench its influence over proxy militias across the Arab world, and Iran did nothing to address those fears. Rather than reversing this, however, the undermining or potential erosion of the JCPOA threatens to exacerbate the regional tensions still further. Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Israel have welcomed Trump’s withdrawal and the American broader statements of its intent to counter Iranian influence across the region. It is unclear, however, what policy options the United States (U.S.) might use to implement the stated strategy – or if it will do so. The U.S. may lend more support to Saudi Arabia’s very different approaches to countering Iran’s allies in Yemen (through the heavy use of force) and in Iraq (through engagement and economic diplomacy), but despite the rhetoric, it is unlikely to make the kinds of political or military investments that would transform the balance of power between Iran and its regional rivals. Instead the tensions over Iran’s role will play out primarily through regional forces.
About the Author:
Jane Kinninmont is Deputy Head and Senior Research Fellow of the Middle East and North Africa Programme at Chatham House. Previously she was Associate Director for the Middle East and Africa at the Economist Group; Middle East and North Africa Editor and Economist at the Economist Intelligence Unit; and Managing Editor for Middle East and Africa at Business Monitor International. She contributes regularly to the media, including The Economist, The Guardian and Foreign Policy. Her research interests include the international relations of the Middle East; deconstructing the politics of sectarianism in the Gulf and Levant; the development of opposition movements and new actors; and the challenges that political economy structures pose to transitions in the region.