Al Sharq Strategic Research(This paper was produced in partnership with Asbab.)
Summary:
The rebellion led by Yevgeny Prigozhin and the subsequent power struggle has raised uncertainties about the group’s future operations in the MENA region. This position paper explores four possible scenarios:
Scenario 1: Wagner Group Retains Control and Operations in MENA:
In this scenario, Russia’s influence in the region would remain intact, allowing it to exploit natural resources and exert geopolitical influence.
Scenario 2: Splintering of Wagner Group and Loss of Russian Support:
The overall influence of Russia in the region would decline, potentially opening opportunities for other external actors to fill the power vacuum.
Scenario 3: Wagner Group Merges with Another Private Military Company
A merger could result in a more consolidated and powerful entity. This outcome could have significant implications for the countries where the Wagner Group operates.
Scenario 4: Withdrawal of Wagner Group from the MENA Region
In this case, Russia’s influence in the region would decline, creating opportunities for other regional and international actors to exert their influence.
Each scenario presents distinct implications for the countries where the Wagner Group operates, including Libya, Sudan, and others. By analyzing these scenarios, we can better understand the potential impact on regional stability, geopolitical dynamics, and the interests of various stakeholders.
Introduction:
The Wagner Group, a Russian private military company, has been operating in the MENA region as an extension of Russia’s influence. Its activities encompass military support, training, and resource exploitation in countries such as Sudan, Libya, Syria, and others. The group’s operations have been instrumental in securing Russian geopolitical interests, leveraging valuable natural resources, and countering Western influence.
However, the June 2023 rebellion of Wagner Group led by its Chief Yevgeny Prigozhin has cast doubts on the group’s future. The power struggle between Prigozhin and Putin has left Wagner’s clients uncertain about the future of their security partnerships. Prigozhin is likely to focus on safeguarding control over Wagner and his business empire. However, Russia is unlikely to relinquish its hold on Wagner without resistance, as the group plays a vital role in Russia’s pursuit of geopolitical and military power in the region. These issues raise questions about the stability and continuity of Wagner’s operations in the MENA region.
This position paper explores potential future trajectories and their implications for the Wagner Group in the MENA region within the timeframe of 2023-2025. By examining different scenarios, this analysis aims to shed light on the possible outcomes and impacts on the areas where the Wagner Group operates. The scenarios presented in this analysis are designed to provide insights into the dynamic landscape and the uncertainties that may shape the future of the Wagner Group in the near term.