Abstract: The success of the Russian military in Syria against all odds has reignited the debate as to what guides Vladimir Putin in the Middle East and whether Syria is only a harbinger of its ambitions. While it is true that the Middle East is an element in the power struggle between Russia and the United States, the Kremlin’s goals are far broader and the region is not the goal in itself. The return of Russia was largely incentivized by the Arab Spring, which threatened to rid Moscow of its last remaining regional ally. The Russian leadership saw these events as a continuation of the Color Revolutions in the post-Soviet Union space and feared a similar fate. A return to the Middle East was also necessary for better oversight over Russian Muslims who, the Kremlin still believes, could be used as a lever against Moscow by regional powers.
Yury Barmin | 23 January 2017
About the Author:
Yury Barmin is a risk consultant whose work focuses on issues related to the Middle East and Russia’s positioning there. He is an Expert at the Russian International Affairs Council, covering the Middle East and North Africa and Moscow’s policy towards the region as well as the conflict in Syria. Mr Barmin holds an MPhil in International Relations from the University of Cambridge; his dissertation looked into the failed Arab Spring protests in Bahrain and Kuwait. He is interested in the politics of the Gulf and the ties that exist between Russia’s North Caucasus and the GCC monarchies.