After months of stalemate in relations between Turkey and the United States, Turkey has purchased S-400 long-range air defense missiles from Russia. Turkish authorities have been justifying the decision with the national security of the country and its dire need for air defense systems.

That being said, I do not see any explanation for purchasing S-400s related to national security or geopolitical realignment in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. From the perspective of cost-benefit analysis, which is necessary for a foreign policy decision to be labeled as rational, the S-400 decision is likely to undermine Turkish-American relations, the Turkish economy, and Turkey’s national security.

However, despite all the problems and cracks which have emerged between the United States and Turkey on many issues over the past years, the United States will surely want to have different channels for maintaining relations with its decades-old NATO ally. For example, there will be bilateral relations between the Pentagon and Turkish Armed Forces, or between the two country’s financial institutions. I also believe that in the short-term , the United States will try to manipulate the current government in Ankara through alternative channels.

Moreover, if the S-400 system becomes active, I believe Turkey will be pacified within NATO and excluded from decision-making mechanisms. NATO still believes that Turkey is using the decision to purchase S-400s as an instrument to negotiate with the United States and is opting to keep silent for now. However, Turkey’s decision has triggered a confidence problem because having the S-400 missile system is a declaration that Turkey views Western countries as a national security threat. In my opinion, the sustainability of Turkish-Western relations will be at stake if Ankara insists on activating the S-400s.

Lastly, there is no doubt that the decision has been an opportunity for Russia to exercise leverage over Turkish foreign policy. An asymmetrical relationship between Turkey and Russia has appeared as a result of Turkey’s problematic relations with NATO, and Russia could consequently enjoy concessions on several issues.