Abdolrasool DivsallarThe Gulf Regional Security after the JCPOA Revival
Abstract: There is a common belief that the Washington and Tehran’s return to the Iran’s nuclear deal would open a new window of opportunity for regional security talks. However, could other geopolitical developments hamper this possibility? What should regional leaders expect from the JCPOA revival? And how they could link it with building a cooperative security architecture in the region? This brief argues that expectations from the positive impacts of the JCPOA’s revival on the regional security system should remain realistic and cautious. It is unlikely that the JCPOA revival would change bigger geopolitical realities and regional leaders’ approaches to security building. The way forward is a “Persian Gulf’s Ostpolitik”, in which leaders on both sides of the Gulf would reset their approaches to regional security in order to make use of the positive climate after the JCPOA revival.
Introduction
The Vienna talks on Iran’s nuclear program is bringing Washington and Tehran closer to an agreement to implement their commitments under the Iranian nuclear deal, known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). This is a crucially important step to protect the region from new volatilities. In parallel, regional diplomatic activities, including between GCC and Iran have surged. The Iran-Saudi and Iran-UAE talks have created a positive political climate, but against initial hopes, have not yet led to any meaningful advances in conflict zones such as Yemen or achieve a political breakthrough in bilateral relations. Moreover, the attacks on Abu-Dhabi in January 2022 and the intensification of the war in Yemen highlighted the limits of current dialogues.
Many believe that Washington and Tehran’s return to the deal would open a new window of opportunity for regional security talks. However, could other geopolitical developments hamper this possibility? What should regional leaders expect from the JCPOA revival? And how they could link it with building a cooperative security architecture in the region?
The truth is that the road ahead to building a functioning security system in the Persian Gulf remains bumpy. Expectations from the JCPOA’s positive impacts on regional security system should remain realistic and cautious. There are doubts if recent positive diplomatic contacts represent any significant change in regional actors’ approach towards a long-term security-building process. Instead, diplomatic efforts seem to be an ad-hoc pragmatic attempt to build an insurance policy against immediate threats. This means that the old playbook of regional powers still applies. The underpinning strategic logic is a mix of complex leverage-taking strategies to weaken rivals’ power and add new sources of power to their own. Due to the overwhelming security dilemma, actors mutually perceive themselves to be checked by their rivals and thus take further actions to roll back threats.
With this approach in place, the JCPOA revival may even amplify new threat-aversive strategies and opportunistic attempts. This brief argues that the JCPOA revival is unlikely to largely change regional dynamics alone. Rather, leaders on both sides of the Persian Gulf need a fresh reset of their approaches to regional security.