(The original Turkish version of this opinion piece was published by Fikir Turu.)

The 61-year-old regime has finally fallen in Syria. The tyranny of the Baath Party that seized power in the country in 1963 later turned into the Assad clan’s dynasty in 1970 through an intra-party coup Hafez Assad called the ‘Corrective Movement,’ was consigned to history with a popular revolution on December 8th, 2024, after only a 12-day-long military operation. It would not be an exaggeration to say that the dizzying developments have far exceeded expectations even for seasoned Syria experts following the crisis for many years.

After the initiation of the Astana Process, which was managed  by Türkiye, Russia, and Iran, the Syrian opposition groups, largely confined to Idlib (which is one of the smallest provinces in Syria in terms of geographic size), launched ‘Operation Deterrence of Aggression’ towards Western Aleppo on November 27, 2024, under the leadership of Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and operating under the ‘Command of Military Operations.’ Some formations from the Syrian National Army, backed by Türkiye, also participated in this operation. Advancing at a terrific pace, the opposition forces quickly captured Aleppo without encountering any serious resistance. Encouraged by the regime army’s lack of resistance, the opposition forces then captured the entirety of the Idlib province, Hama, Homs, and eventually the capital, Damascus. The territorial gains of the opposition forces marching from the north to Damascus also encouraged the Syrian rebels in the south, and the opposition there took up arms and cornered Damascus. This situation facilitated the disintegration of the regime elements, and Damascus fell into the hands of the opposition forces without serious clashes.

As a result, the leader of the ousted regime, Bashar Assad, who could not receive the support he expected from Russia and Iran, fled to Moscow and became a refugee. During this process, the Syrian people toppled all the statues representing the deposed regime throughout Syria. HTS leader Abu Mohammed al-Jolani visited the Umayyad Mosque in Damascus and delivered a speech. Even in the coastal areas of the country, which were seen as the heartland of the ousted Assad regime, the arrival of the opposition was celebrated with enthusiasm.

Obvious Facts

Following a period in which hopes have been gradually fading in the last few years, the deposed Assad regime has been normalized regionally and internationally, and Türkiye has been searching for a reconciliation process with the Syrian regime for nearly two years; the Syrian opposition has made one of the greatest comebacks in modern history. The importance of the last operation proceeding largely bloodlessly and turning into a full-fledged popular revolution in a short period cannot be emphasized enough. What has been done was a huge achievement.

Today, the old political order is obsolete in Syria, and establishing a new one will take time. Will there be a power vacuum? What kind of stance will opposition actors take during this process? What kind of administration will be established? Will there be a vacuum in security and administration? These are the main questions that are asked at the moment. Although it is difficult to answer all of these questions during a process fraught with many uncertainties, they are worth considering.

Syrian Opposition and Their Governance Experiences

The Syrian opposition is currently divided into three main axes. HTS, along with its allies, the Syrian National Army supported by Türkiye, and the opposition forces surrounding Damascus from the south. The transitional political order will most likely be arranged between these three sides. The opposition faces a serious challenge of managing the political process well. This process needs to be well thought out and organized. Otherwise, a fragile entity will emerge, and this entity will be open to domestic and foreign influence and problems.

It is obvious that at least some of the bureaucrats of the old regime will also be part of the transition process. In fact, the prime minister of the deposed Assad regime, Mohammad Jalali, did not flee the country and stated that he would hand over the administration to any representative chosen by the Syrian people. Thereupon, HTS leader Jolani brought together the prime minister of the ousted regime and the prime minister of the HTS-backed Salvation Government in Idlib, Mohammed Bashir, in a meeting, and the transition process was discussed. In short, Mohammed Bashir will serve as the prime minister of Syria during the political transition process.

The opposition has had serious governance experience for a long time in their control zones. Both HTS, through the Salvation Government, established in Idlib, and the Türkiye-backed opposition, through the Syrian Interim Government, based in the areas where Ankara conducted military operations, gained the experience of governing millions of people over the past years. During this process, the Salvation Government stood out compared to the Syrian Interim Government.

Moreover, HTS made attempts to establish a single military and administrative structure in northern Syria for a long time. When it realized it could not do this through negotiations, it resorted to violence. Both HTS and its allies clashed with the Syrian National Army groups. However, HTS could not establish the unity it desired.

Today, there is a very different reality on the ground. HTS and its leader, Jolani, have gained a lot of popularity. In fact, the US and UK have already started signaling that HTS may be removed from the terror list. Therefore, HTS will act as the driving force of this transition process. There has been a great deal of calm in the regions the opposition has seized, and no chaotic situation has occurred thus far. The opposition has also called on those currently working in state institutions not to panic, remain in their positions, and continue their duties. However, it is challenging to definitively answer whether the current successful situation will continue in the upcoming period.

The Upcoming Political Transition Process

At a time when the deposed tyrant Bashar al-Assad fled the country, the Prime Minister of the ousted regime, Mohamad Jalali, stayed in the country, taking risks. He also expressed that he would assist the new ruler of Syria during a transitional period and demonstrated his will to work with an elected administration. With the appointment of Mohammed Bashir as the transitional Prime Minister of Syria, efforts to complete the interim political structure will be accelerated in the coming days. The fundamental problem is how inclusive this structure will be and how the opposition will transform state institutions.

Yes, the opposition has experience in governance, but two points need to be underlined here. First, the opposition has governed an area that was mainly supportive of them in terms of sociological base. They must establish an inclusive administration in Syria, a mosaic of religions and ethnicities. Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan also stated that establishing an inclusive political structure in Syria is necessary.

HTS has also tried to win the hearts and minds of the minorities in the country by publishing statements in which it gave guarantees to different religious minorities and ethnicities in Syria. There have been no serious ethnic or religious problems in Syria since the new revolution until the date of writing this article.

Secondly, although the opposition has governed a large population, it may be an exaggeration to say that it has built giant governing structures regarding state institutions. Right now, the opposition must first control and then transform the massive state institutions and complex bureaucracy in Syria. In other words, the opposition is forced to increase its governing capacity. The fact that state institutions have been largely preserved in the last two weeks is also a serious gain for the opposition. At this point, the opposition will need to receive support from the bureaucrats and technocrats of the Assad regime.

Türkiye has become the leading actor in Syria after November 27 and will most likely support the opposition during the mentioned transition process. Qatar, the only Arab actor that had not compromised with the Syrian regime, is also likely to contribute to this process. The EU may also provide partial support to the process. HTS, which is on the US terror list, is also likely to dissolve during the transition process. The HTS leader made statements on this issue. Due to his Al Qaeda history, which he brought from Iraq to Syria, Jolani is likely to have yet to come to the fore in the initial transition process. He is likely to stay behind as an advisor. It is likely that he will come to the stage as a political figure in the later stages. A similar process actually took place when Jabhat Fateh al-Sham merged with some other groups and established HTS. When HTS was established in 2017, Hashim al-Sheikh was initially appointed as the group leader, and Jolani remained in the background as the military leader. However, in less than a year, Hashim al-Sheikh resigned (which can also be read as forced to resign), and Jolani was elevated to the organization’s leadership.

Will the Syrian Opposition Groups Be Able to Act Together?

Hadi al-Bahra, the Chairman of the National Coalition of Syrian Revolution and Opposition Forces in Istanbul, also proposes an 18-month transition period. He states a new constitution will be discussed in the first 6 months. He emphasizes the necessity of holding free and fair elections after 18 months. It is a mystery if Jolani and HTS will accept this proposal.

In short, the question of whether opposition groups will clash in the coming period over power sharing, as happened among the Afghan groups in Afghanistan when the Soviet Union withdrew its troops from the country, is essential. For now, things are on track, and the scenario of clashes seems weak. The opposition has learned to act in a more coordinated manner in recent years and appears to have learned from some past mistakes. Nonetheless, there will be rivalry between them, but they have no choice but to share political power.

YPG/SDF and the Syrian Opposition

Another dimension of the matter is the fate of the lands under YPG/SDF control.  In the chaos that followed, the SDF, which made moves into areas where the Assad regime had withdrawn, soon came to control 40 percent of Syrian territory. With the SNA’s ‘Operation Freedom Dawn,’ Tel Rif’at and Manbij were retaken from the SDF, and the organization’s presence west of the Euphrates ended. In recent days, the people in Arab-majority regions in Eastern Syria have also revolted against the SDF, and it was forced to withdraw from the Western bank of Deir Ez-Zour. The organization will likely lose more territory in Arab-majority Eastern Syria in the coming period. It seems likely that the clashes between the SNO and the SDF will intensify. HTS, on the other hand, is in a different position during this process. Apart from some minimal clashes, there has been no serious confrontation between HTS and the SDF. HTS has primarily left the SDF issue to Türkiye and the SNA and does not want to get involved. In the Sheikh Maqsoud and Ashrafiya neighborhoods of Aleppo, which are Kurdish-majority areas, HTS asked the SDF to take their weapons and leave the region without engaging in a conflict.

Therefore, it is quite reasonable to assert that there will be a conflict of opinion between HTS and the SNA regarding the SDF coming to the political table. HTS is a side that will be more open to a political agreement with the SDF. Similarly, Salih Muslim, a prominent PYD figure, has adopted a positive discourse on HTS. Salih Muslim said, ‘HTS is a coordinated and more conciliatory structure. They are also Syrians. I am optimistic about them; they should uphold the diversity of Syria.’ However, he has adopted a very negative attitude towards the SNA, indicating that he sees them as equal to ISIS. Time will tell where this attitude will evolve and whether the SNA will evolve into a more conciliatory point.

It is time to build a new Syria

In short, the Syrian people have achieved a magnificent victory after paying a very high price in years full of unbearable pains. Although I have been following the Syrian crisis for years, I did not imagine that I would see the day of the revolution. I am happy to stand on the right side of history throughout the crisis – that is, to stand by the just demands of the Syrians – and to witness history in the making. But for the Syrians, the giant task has just begun. Despite all the suffering experienced in the past, the Syrians have a huge historical responsibility to rebuild their country, which suffered significant losses in the war, based on justice and brotherhood. I do not doubt that Türkiye, which also paid the price due to rightly standing by the legitimate demands of Syrians during the revolution, will contribute to this process. Now is the time to build a new Syria.