Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu finds himself at a critical juncture as his governing coalition faces internal fractures. The recent threats of withdrawal from his ultra-right-wing allies, combined with growing public support for the agreement to release hostages and halt the war in Gaza, have placed Netanyahu in a precarious position. His challenge is to balance the competing demands of his coalition partners and broader Israeli society while ensuring the survival of his government.

Right-Wing Pressures and Coalition Stability

As the coalition crisis unfolds, Netanyahu has attempted to appease the far-right factions within his government. National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir’s resignation has already weakened Netanyahu’s government, exacerbating tensions with Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich. Smotrich has previously threatened to withdraw his party’s support, posing a significant challenge to Netanyahu’s hold on power. However, Smotrich’s recent reversal of his withdrawal threat, allegedly secured by Netanyahu’s promise to resume military operations in Gaza after the first phase of the ceasefire, underscores the fragility of the coalition.

The possibility of escalating tensions in the West Bank remains another avenue for Netanyahu, particularly as he navigates internal political turmoil and external pressures. By intensifying the situation in the occupied territories, he could create a security crisis that justifies postponing negotiations for the second phase of the agreement scheduled for discussion on February 3. Such a move would not only appeal to his hardline right-wing base, which has consistently pushed for a more aggressive stance against Palestinian resistance, but also serve as a tactical diversion from mounting domestic challenges. Netanyahu is currently facing growing dissent within his coalition, including criticism from both ultra-nationalists who oppose any concessions and moderates who seek a diplomatic resolution. Furthermore, escalating violence in the West Bank could shift international focus away from internal Israeli disputes, providing him with temporary relief from political instability and legal troubles. Historical precedents suggest that Israeli leaders have, at times, leveraged security crises to consolidate political support and delay unfavorable diplomatic engagements.

The Ultra-Orthodox Draft Law and Its Implications

Beyond the immediate coalition crisis, Netanyahu faces another political dilemma: the contentious conscription law targeting Haredi (ultra-Orthodox) Jews. Defense Minister Yoav Gallant’s proposal in November 2023 mandates the conscription of 7,000 Haredim by 2026. This has sparked significant unrest among the ultra-Orthodox community, a key Netanyahu support base. Netanyahu must now choose between maintaining the support of ultra-Orthodox parties and enforcing policies that align with broader national security imperatives.

U.S. Involvement as a Justification for Coalition Decisions

Given the mounting pressure, Netanyahu may seek external validation to justify his domestic decisions. The United States has consistently emphasized the importance of Israeli unity in the face of regional threats. Leveraging U.S. support could provide Netanyahu with a strategic narrative to maintain coalition stability. He could argue that American diplomatic and security concerns necessitate maintaining a cohesive Israeli government, thereby easing some of the internal dissent.

The Most Likely Scenario: Coalition Collapse?

Should Netanyahu fail to maintain the delicate balance within his coalition, the most probable outcome is the disintegration of his government. The departure of Ben-Gvir has already exposed vulnerabilities, and if Smotrich or the Haredi factions decide to follow suit, Netanyahu may face early elections. Without a stable right-wing bloc, Netanyahu risks losing the political leverage he has maintained through strategic coalition-building.

In conclusion, Netanyahu’s ability to navigate this crisis will determine the longevity of his government. His immediate priorities—securing far-right loyalty, managing public opinion on the Gaza ceasefire, and addressing the Haredi draft issue—will shape Israel’s political landscape in the coming months. Whether he survives this challenge or succumbs to coalition collapse remains to be seen.