Abstract: With the conflict in Libya proving to be hard to resolve through U.N. mediation, outside powers, including Russia, see an opportunity to facilitate the settlement of the crisis and serve their own interests by doing so. Libya has historically been one of Russia’s staunchest allies in the MENA region, leading to strong ties across domains from energy to the military that have largely persevered despite the ongoing war. Seeing an opportunity to facilitate the resolution of the conflict, Moscow hopes to achieve a number of goals that include boosting its arms trade portfolio in North Africa, grabbing lucrative energy and construction contracts as well as checking NATOs expanding influence in the Mediterranean. However, despite its traditional focus on the notion of authoritarian stability in the Middle East, Russia has made a notable departure from this policy in Libya by hedging its bets across the political spectrum. Unlike Syria, where Russia is constrained in its modus operandi, it enjoys more leeway to act in Libya, which is why Khalifa Haftar, commonly described as Vladimir Putin’s point-man in Libya, is seen by Moscow as only one of the elements necessary for the resolution of this crisis.
About the Author:
Yury Barmin is a risk consultant whose work focuses on issues related to the Middle East and Russia’s positioning there. He is an Expert at the Russian International Affairs Council, covering the Middle East and North Africa and Moscow’s policy towards the region as well as the conflict in Syria. Mr Barmin holds an MPhil in International Relations from the University of Cambridge; his dissertation looked into the failed Arab Spring protests in Bahrain and Kuwait. He is interested in the politics of the Gulf and the ties that exist between Russia’s North Caucasus and the GCC monarchies.