Mesut OzcanAbstract: The Kurdistan Regional Government’s announcement that it would hold a referendum on independence on September 25 this year has revived the Kurdish issue in Iraq amidst ongoing anti-ISIS operations. Despite opposition from many Iraqi figures as well as regional and international players, the KRG government have insisted that they will persist with the plan. The region has suffered from severe political and economic crises over the last couple of years, and the independence referendum is being used as a means to unify society. Bringing up the referendum now, even if it is eventually postponed, could be a useful tactic for extracting political and economic concessions from Baghdad in the context of a difficult financial position. Sooner or later, however, the fate of the Kurds in Iraq will bring the political future of the country into the balance. No-one believes that the possible referendum will settle the issue instantly on September 25, but if it takes place it will certainly represent another important milestone on the road towards possible independence.
The history of fraught relations between Baghdad and the Iraqi Kurds took a new turn recently, with Masoud Barzani promising a referendum on the independence of the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) in Iraq on September 25, 2017. Although it is believed that there is widespread support among the Iraqi Kurds for independence, there were also some critical comments from Kurdish figures about the timing of as well as the intent behind the referendum. The signals coming from other segments of Iraqi society and from the political leadership have not been very positive either. In addition, regional and international players do not look favorably upon demands for independence. In the light of these factors, let us try to analyze the likelihood of this referendum being held in the light of the interests of different Kurdish political actors in Iraq, other Iraqi political players, as well as regional and international powers.