Muhanad SeloomAbstract: The Iraqi Kurdistan region independence referendum represents a turning point in Iraq’s modern history. For the first time since its foundation in 1921, Iraq’s territorial integrity is at stake. The federal government in Baghdad will do its best to prevent the breakup of Iraq into ethno-sectarian states. Equally, the creation of an independent Kurdish state poses a serious challenge to Iran and Turkey, where millions of ethnic Kurds live. This brief evaluates what may happen in the aftermath of the referendum endorsing the independence of the Iraqi Kurdistan region.
There were many reasons behind the decision by the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) to hold an independence referendum on September 25, 2017, and experts have discussed the underlying causes leading to the referendum in more detail. The KRG has already held its independence referendum, yet the Kurdish leadership recognises that independence from Iraq will not happen in the near future. Kirkuk and other disputed territories raise complicated ethno-religious issues which might need years to resolve. Most ethno-religious minorities in the disputed territories are concerned by the fact that they have to choose between the Iraqi government and the Kurdistan Regional Government. It is not clear what guarantees the KRG is prepared to offer in terms of securing the rights of the Turkmen, Arab, Shabak, Yezidi, and Christian minorities living in the disputed territories. Minorities in the Kurdistan region fear that Kurdish political parties are using them for political gains as “the referendum was designed to take place without input from the KRI minorities and their political opinions were not solicited.’’ Consequently, Assyrian, Armenian, and Turkmen groups together submitted 50 demands to the High Committee of the Referendum asking for the protection of their religious and ethnic rights in the new to-be-declared state and minorities’ rights to self-governance in their own areas.